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Nowcasting is a term originating from economics, finance, and meteorology. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy, markets or the weather at the current time by indirect means. In this paper, we describe a simple two-parameter data analysis that reveals hidden order in otherwise seemingly chaotic earthquake seismicity. One of these parameters relates to a mechanism of seismic quiescence arising from the physics of strain-hardening of the crust prior to major events. We observe an earthquake cycle associated with major earthquakes in California, similar to what has long been postulated. An estimate of the earthquake hazard revealed by this state variable time series can be optimized by the use of machine learning in the form of the Receiver Operating Characteristic skill score. The ROC skill is used here as a loss function in a supervised learning mode. Our analysis is conducted in the region of 5° × 5° in latitude-longitude centered on Los Angeles, a region which we used in previous papers to build similar time series using more involved methods (Rundle & Donnellan, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001097; Rundle, Donnellan et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001757; Rundle, Stein et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6633/abf893). Here we show that not only does the state variable time series have forecast skill, the associated spatial probability densities have skill as well. In addition, use of the standard ROC and Precision (PPV) metrics allow probabilities of current earthquake hazard to be defined in a simple, straightforward, and rigorous way.

GeoGateway (http://geo-gateway.org) is a web-based interface for analysis and modeling of geodetic imaging data and to support response to related disasters. Geodetic imaging data product currently supported by GeoGateway include Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) daily position time series and derived velocities and displacements and airborne Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) from NASA's UAVSAR platform. GeoGateway allows users to layer data products in a web map interface and extract information from various tools. Extracted products can be downloaded for further analysis. GeoGateway includes overlays of California fault traces, seismicity from user selected search parameters, and user supplied map files. GeoGateway also provides earthquake nowcasts and hazard maps as well as products created for related response to natural disasters. A user guide is present in the GeoGateway interface. The GeoGateway development team is also growing the user base through workshops, webinars, and video tutorials. GeoGateway is used in the classroom and for research by experts and non-experts including by students.

We present a data-driven approach to clustering or grouping Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations according to observed velocities, displacements or other selected characteristics. Clustering GNSS stations provides useful scientific information, and is a necessary initial step in other analysis, such as detecting aseismic transient signals (Granat et al., 2013, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220130039). Desired features of the data can be selected for clustering, including some subset of displacement or velocity components, uncertainty estimates, station location, and other relevant information. Based on those selections, the clustering procedure autonomously groups the GNSS stations according to a selected clustering method. We have implemented this approach as a Python application, allowing us to draw upon the full range of open source clustering methods available in Pythons scikit-learn package (Pedregosa et al., 2011, https://doi.org/10.5555/1953048.2078195). The application returns the stations labeled by group as a table and color coded KML file and is designed to work with the GNSS information available from GeoGateway (Donnellan et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-020-00561-7; Heflin et al., 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ea000644) but is easily extensible. We demonstrate the methodology on California and western Nevada. The results show partitions that follow faults or geologic boundaries, including for recent large earthquakes and post-seismic motion. The San Andreas fault system is most prominent, reflecting Pacific-North American plate boundary motion. Deformation reflected as class boundaries is distributed north and south of the central California creeping section. For most models a cluster boundary connects the southernmost San Andreas fault with the Eastern California Shear Zone (ECSZ) rather than continuing through the San Gorgonio Pass.

Geodetic observations using the Global Positioning System (GPS) and other techniques record a high rate of north-south shortening in an east-southeast-trending, 5-40-km-wide belt in northern metropolitan Los Angeles, California. Downtown Los Angeles is observed to be converging upon the southern San Gabriel Mountains at 6 mm/yr. Aside from the elastic strain that will be released during earthquakes rupturing the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults, east-west lengthening across northern metropolitan Los Angeles is minor,

There have been numerous debates about rising authoritarianism and its impact on democracy and human rights. As a human rights funder whose central goal is to strengthen the resilience of the human rights movement, employing a racial justice lens to all our work is critical, now more than ever. Some have argued that highlighting structural racism and discrimination has shifted the focus away from economic inequality and undermined some of the relevance of the contemporary human rights movement. We contend, however, that deep economic inequality is frequently a reflection of deep inequality in the underlying power structures that govern societies. Employing a racial justice lens offers us the opportunity to deconstruct structures that contribute to a host of rights violations and allows us to gain a deeper understanding of how oppressive structures intersect. This essay is a reflection on some of our learning to date. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uninhabited aerial vehicle synthetic aperture radar (UAVSAR) observations 2009–2017 of the Yuha Desert area and Global Positioning System (GPS) time series encompassing the region reveal a northward migrating pattern of deformation following the 4 April 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor‐Cucapah (EMC) earthquake. The north end of the EMC rupture exhibits an asymmetric pattern of deformation that is substantial and smooth northeast of the rupture and limited but with surface fracturing slip northwest. The earthquake triggered ~1 cm of surface coseismic slip at the Yuha fault, which continued to slip postseismically. 2.5 cm of Yuha fault slip occurred by the time of the 15 June 2010 Mw5.7 Ocotillo aftershock and 5 cm of slip occurred by 2017 following a logarithmic afterslip decay 16‐day timescale. The Ocotillo aftershock triggered 1.4 cm of slip on a northwest trend extending to the Elsinore fault and by 7 years after the EMC earthquake 2.4 cm of slip had accumulated with a distribution following an afterslip function with a 16‐day timescale consistent with other earthquakes and a rate strengthening upper crustal sedimentary layer. GPS data show broad coseismic uplift of the Salton Trough and delayed postseismic motion that may be indicative of fluid migration there and subsidence west of the rupture extension, which continues following the earthquake. The data indicate that the Elsinore, Laguna Salada, and EMC ruptures are part of the same fault system. The results also suggest that north‐south shortening and east‐west extension across the region drove fracture advancing step tectonics north of the EMC earthquake rupture. Plain Language Summary: Airborne radar and Global Positioning System observations of the Yuha Desert and Salton Trough suggest that the 2010 M7.2 El Mayor ‐ Cucapah earthquake rupture, the Laguna Salada fault in Baja California, Mexico, and the Elsinore fault in California are part of the same fault system. The M5.7 Ocotillo aftershock links these faults and is a result of stress propagation from afterslip on the El Mayor ‐ Cucapah rupture. Further east in the Salton Trough fluid migration also contributes to the observed results. Key Points: The Mw5.7 Ocotillo aftershock of the El Mayor‐Cucapah earthquake extended north from a mainshock surface fracture to the Elsinore faultPostseismic slip on the Yuha fault and Ocotillo section and uplift in the Salton Trough continued for several years following the eventSalton Trough spreading causes left slip on the Yuha fault resulting in a left step that links the Laguna Salada and Elsinore faults [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]