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The tracking of pathogen burden and host responses with minimally invasive methods during respiratory infections is central for monitoring disease development and guiding treatment decisions. Utilizing a standardized murine model of respiratory influenza A virus (IAV) infection, we developed and tested different supervised machine learning models to predict viral burden and immune response markers, i.e., cytokines and leukocytes in the lung, from hematological data. We performed independently in vivo infection experiments to acquire extensive data for training and testing of the models. We show here that lung viral load, neutrophil counts, cytokines (such as gamma interferon [IFN-γ] and interleukin 6 [IL-6]), and other lung infection markers can be predicted from hematological data. Furthermore, feature analysis of the models showed that blood granulocytes and platelets play a crucial role in prediction and are highly involved in the immune response against IAV. The proposed in silico tools pave the path toward improved tracking and monitoring of influenza virus infections and possibly other respiratory infections based on minimally invasively obtained hematological parameters. IMPORTANCE During the course of respiratory infections such as influenza, we do have a very limited view of immunological indicators to objectively and quantitatively evaluate the outcome of a host. Methods for monitoring immunological markers in a host's lungs are invasive and expensive, and some of them are not feasible to perform. Using machine learning algorithms, we show for the first time that minimally invasively acquired hematological parameters can be used to infer lung viral burden, leukocytes, and cytokines following influenza virus infection in mice. The potential of the framework proposed here consists of a new qualitative vision of the disease processes in the lung compartment as a noninvasive tool.

Seasonal influenza outbreaks, especially in high-risk groups such as the elderly, represent an important public health problem. Prevailing inadequate efficacy of seasonal vaccines is a crucial bottleneck. Understanding the immunological and molecular mechanisms underpinning differential influenza vaccine responsiveness is essential to improve vaccination strategies. Here we show comprehensive characterization of the immune response of randomly selected elderly participants (≥ 65 years), immunized with the adjuvanted influenza vaccine Fluad. In-depth analyses by serology, multi-parametric flow cytometry, multiplex and transcriptome analysis, coupled to bioinformatics and mathematical modelling, reveal distinguishing immunological and molecular features between responders and non-responders defined by vaccine-induced seroconversion. Non-responders are specifically characterized by multiple suppressive immune mechanisms. The generated comprehensive high dimensional dataset enables the identification of putative mechanisms and nodes responsible for vaccine non-responsiveness independently of confounding age-related effects, with the potential to facilitate development of tailored vaccination strategies for the elderly., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

COPD and asthma are two distinct but sometimes overlapping diseases exhibiting varying degrees and types of inflammation on different stages of the disease. Although several biomarkers are defined to estimate the inflammatory endotype and stages in these diseases, there is still a need for new markers and potential therapeutic targets. We investigated the levels of a phytohormone, abscisic acid (ABA) and its receptor, LANCL2, in COPD patients and asthmatics. In addition, PPAR-γ that is activated by ABA in a ligand-binding domain-independent manner was also included in the study. In this study, we correlated ABA with COPD-propagating factors to define the possible role of ABA, in terms of immune regulation, inflammation, and disease stages. We collected blood from 101 COPD patients, 52 asthmatics, and 57 controls. Bronchoscopy was performed on five COPD patients and 29 controls. We employed (i) liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry and HPLC to determine the ABA and indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase levels, respectively; (ii) real-time PCR to quantify the gene expression of LANCL2 and PPAR-γ; (iii) Flow cytometry to quantify adipocytokines; and (iv) immunoturbidimetry and ELISA to measure CRP and cytokines, respectively. Finally, a multinomial regression model was used to predict the probability of using ABA as a biomarker. Blood ABA levels were significantly reduced in COPD patients and asthmatics compared to age- and gender-matched normal controls. However, PPAR-γ was elevated in COPD patients. Intriguingly, ABA was positively correlated with immune-regulatory factors and was negatively correlated with inflammatory markers, in COPD. Of note, ABA was increased in advanced COPD stages. We thereby conclude that ABA might be involved in regulation of COPD pathogenesis and might be regarded as a potential biomarker for COPD stages., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2021 Hoang, Nguyen, Oberacher, Fuchs, Hernandez-Vargas, Borucki, Waldburg, Wippermann, Schreiber, Bruder and Veluswamy.)

Motivation: Influenza viruses are a cause of large outbreaks and pandemics with high death tolls. A key obstacle is that flu vaccines have inconsistent performance, in the best cases up to 60% effectiveness, but it can be as low as 10%. Uncovering the hidden pathways of how antibodies (Abs) induced by one influenza strain are effective against another, cross-reaction, is a central vexation for the design of universal flu vaccines., Results: We conceive a stochastic model that successfully represents the antibody cross-reactive data from mice infected with H3N2 influenza strains and further validation with cross-reaction data of H1N1 strains. Using a High-Performance Computing cluster, several aspects and parameters in the model were tested. Computational simulations highlight that changes in time of infection and the B-cells population are relevant, however, the affinity threshold of B-cells between consecutive infections is a necessary condition for the successful Abs cross-reaction. Our results suggest a 3-D reformulation of the current influenza antibody landscape for the representation and modeling of cross-reactive data., Availability and Implementation: The full code as a testing/simulation platform is freely available here: https://github.com/systemsmedicine/Antibody_cross-reaction_dynamics., Supplementary Information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Social distancing strategies have been adopted by governments to manage the COVID-19 pandemic, since the first outbreak began. However, further epidemic waves keep out the return of economic and social activities to their standard levels of intensity. Social distancing interventions based on control theory are needed to consider a formal dynamic characterization of the implemented SIR-type model to avoid unrealistic objectives and prevent further outbreaks. The objective of this work is twofold: to fully understand some dynamical aspects of SIR-type models under control actions (associated with second waves) and, based on it, to propose a switching non-linear model predictive control that optimize the non-pharmaceutical measures strategy. Opposite to other strategies, the objective here is not just to minimize the number of infected individuals at any time, but to minimize the final size of the epidemic while minimizing the time of social restrictions and avoiding the infected prevalence peak to overpass a maximum established by the healthcare system capacity. Simulations illustrate the benefits of the aforementioned proposal., (© 2019, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd.)

Mathematical models describing SARS-CoV-2 dynamics and the corresponding immune responses in patients with COVID-19 can be critical to evaluate possible clinical outcomes of antiviral treatments. In this work, based on the concept of virus spreadability in the host, antiviral effectiveness thresholds are determined to establish whether or not a treatment will be able to clear the infection. In addition, the virus dynamic in the host - including the time-to-peak and the final monotonically decreasing behavior - is characterized as a function of the time to treatment initiation. Simulation results, based on nine patient data, show the potential clinical benefits of a treatment classification according to patient critical parameters. This study is aimed at paving the way for the different antivirals being developed to tackle SARS-CoV-2., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

p53 regulates the cellular response to genotoxic damage and prevents carcinogenic events. Theoretical and experimental studies state that the p53-Mdm2 network constitutes the core module of regulatory interactions activated by cellular stress induced by a variety of signaling pathways. In this paper, a strategy to control the p53-Mdm2 network regulated by p14ARF is developed, based on the pinning control technique, which consists into applying local feedback controllers to a small number of nodes (pinned ones) in the network. Pinned nodes are selected on the basis of their importance level in a topological hierarchy, their degree of connectivity within the network, and the biological role they perform. In this paper, two cases are considered. For the first case, the oscillatory pattern under gamma-radiation is recovered; afterward, as the second case, increased expression of p53 level is taken into account. For both cases, the control law is applied to p14ARF (pinned node based on a virtual leader methodology), and overexpressed Mdm2-mediated p53 degradation condition is considered as carcinogenic initial behavior. The approach in this paper uses a computational algorithm, which opens an alternative path to understand the cellular responses to stress, doing it possible to model and control the gene regulatory network dynamics in two different biological contexts. As the main result of the proposed control technique, the two mentioned desired behaviors are obtained., (Copyright © 2020 Suarez, Vega, Sanchez, González-Santiago, Rodríguez-Jorge, Alanis, Chen and Hernandez-Vargas.)

Motivation: Partial differential equations (PDEs) is a well-established and powerful tool to simulate multi-cellular biological systems. However, available free tools for validation against data are on development., Results: The PDEparams module provides a flexible interface and readily accommodates different parameter analysis tools in PDE models such as computation of likelihood profiles, and parametric bootstrapping, along with direct visualization of the results. To our knowledge, it is the first open, freely available tool for parameter fitting of PDE models., Availability and Implementation: PDEparams is distributed under the MIT license. The source code, usage instructions and examples are freely available on GitHub at github.com/systemsmedicine/PDE_params., Supplementary Information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

While many epidemiological models were proposed to understand and handle COVID-19 pandemic, too little has been invested to understand human viral replication and the potential use of novel antivirals to tackle the infection. In this work, using a control theoretical approach, validated mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 in humans are characterized. A complete analysis of the main dynamic characteristic is developed based on the reproduction number. The equilibrium regions of the system are fully characterized, and the stability of such regions is formally established. Mathematical analysis highlights critical conditions to decrease monotonically SARS-CoV-2 in the host, as such conditions are relevant to tailor future antiviral treatments. Simulation results show the aforementioned system characterization., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

COVID-19 pandemic has underlined the impact of emergent pathogens as a major threat to human health. The development of quantitative approaches to advance comprehension of the current outbreak is urgently needed to tackle this severe disease. Considering different starting times of infection, mathematical models are proposed to represent SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in infected patients. Based on the target cell limited model, the within-host reproductive number for SARS-CoV-2 is consistent with the broad values of human influenza infection. The best model to fit the data was including immune cell response, which suggests a slow immune response peaking between 5 to 10 days post-onset of symptoms. The model with the eclipse phase, time in a latent phase before becoming productively infected cells, was not supported. Interestingly, model simulations predict that SARS-CoV-2 may replicate very slowly in the first days after infection, and viral load could be below detection levels during the first 4 days post infection. A quantitative comprehension of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics and the estimation of standard parameters of viral infections is the key contribution of this pioneering work. These models can serve for future evaluation of control theoretical approaches to tailor new drugs against COVID-19., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Bacteria control the expression of specific genes by Quorum Sensing (QS). This works using small signaling molecules called Autoinducers (AIs), for example, the Autoinducer-2 (AI-2). In this work, we present a mathematical model that represents the AI-2 dynamics on Escherichia coli , which is linked to the cell growth and the lsr operon expression. The model is adjusted using experimental data. Our results suggest that the extracellular AI-2 activity level depends on the cell growth rate, and this activity depends on the cell exponential growth phase. The model was adapted to simulate the interference of QS mechanisms in a co-culture of two E. coli strains: a wild type strain and a knock out strain that detects AI-2 but does not produce it. Co-culture simulations unveiled two conditions to avoid the QS on the wild strain: when the knock out takes control of the growth medium and overcomes the wild strain, or when is pre-cultured to its mid-exponential phase and then added to the wild strain culture. Model simulations unveiled new insights about the interference of bacterial communication and offer new tools for QS control.

An overt pro-inflammatory immune response is a key factor contributing to lethal pneumococcal infection in an influenza pre-infected host and represents a potential target for therapeutic intervention. However, there is a paucity of knowledge about the level of contribution of individual cytokines. Based on the predictions of our previous mathematical modeling approach, the potential benefit of IFN-γ- and/or IL-6-specific antibody-mediated cytokine neutralization was explored in C57BL/6 mice infected with the influenza A/PR/8/34 strain, which were subsequently infected with the Streptococcus pneumoniae strain TIGR4 on day 7 post influenza. While single IL-6 neutralization had no effect on respiratory bacterial clearance, single IFN-γ neutralization enhanced local bacterial clearance in the lungs. Concomitant neutralization of IFN-γ and IL-6 significantly reduced the degree of pneumonia as well as bacteremia compared to the control group, indicating a positive effect for the host during secondary bacterial infection. The results of our model-driven experimental study reveal that the predicted therapeutic value of IFN-γ and IL-6 neutralization in secondary pneumococcal infection following influenza infection is tightly dependent on the experimental protocol while at the same time paving the way toward the development of effective immune therapies.

Adjuvanted influenza vaccines constitute a key element towards inducing neutralizing antibody responses in populations with reduced responsiveness, such as infants and elderly subjects, as well as in devising antigen-sparing strategies. In particular, squalene-containing adjuvants have been observed to induce enhanced antibody responses, as well as having an influence on cross-reactive immunity. To explore the effects of adjuvanted vaccine formulations on antibody response and their relation to protein-specific immunity, we propose different mathematical models of antibody production dynamics in response to influenza vaccination. Data from ferrets immunized with commercial H1N1pdm09 vaccine antigen alone or formulated with different adjuvants was instrumental to adjust model parameters. While the affinity maturation process complexity is abridged, the proposed model is able to recapitulate the essential features of the observed dynamics. Our numerical results suggest that there exists a qualitative shift in protein-specific antibody response, with enhanced production of antibodies targeting the NA protein in adjuvanted versus non-adjuvanted formulations, in conjunction with a protein-independent boost that is over one order of magnitude larger for squalene-containing adjuvants. Furthermore, simulations predict that vaccines formulated with squalene-containing adjuvants are able to induce sustained antibody titers in a robust way, with little impact of the time interval between immunizations.

From August to November 2017, Madagascar endured an outbreak of plague. A total of 2417 cases of plague were confirmed, causing a death toll of 209. Public health intervention efforts were introduced and successfully stopped the epidemic at the end of November. The plague, however, is endemic in the region and occurs annually, posing the risk of future outbreaks. To understand the plague transmission, we collected real-time data from official reports, described the outbreak's characteristics, and estimated transmission parameters using statistical and mathematical models. The pneumonic plague epidemic curve exhibited multiple peaks, coinciding with sporadic introductions of new bubonic cases. Optimal climate conditions for rat flea to flourish were observed during the epidemic. Estimate of the plague basic reproduction number during the large wave of the epidemic was high, ranging from 5 to 7 depending on model assumptions. The incubation and infection periods for bubonic and pneumonic plague were 4.3 and 3.4 days and 3.8 and 2.9 days, respectively. Parameter estimation suggested that even with a small fraction of the population exposed to infected rat fleas (1/10,000) and a small probability of transition from a bubonic case to a secondary pneumonic case (3%), the high human-to-human transmission rate can still generate a large outbreak. Controlling rodent and fleas can prevent new index cases, but managing human-to-human transmission is key to prevent large-scale outbreaks., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Stockpiling neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) such as oseltamivir and zanamivir is part of a global effort to be prepared for an influenza pandemic. However, the contribution of NAIs for the treatment and prevention of influenza and its complications is largely debatable due to constraints in the ability to control for confounders and to explore unobserved areas of the drug effects. For this study, we used a mathematical model of influenza infection which allowed transparent analyses. The model recreated the oseltamivir effects and indicated that: (i) the efficacy was limited by design, (ii) a 99% efficacy could be achieved by using high drug doses (however, taking high doses of drug 48 h post-infection could only yield a maximum of 1.6-day reduction in the time to symptom alleviation), and (iii) contributions of oseltamivir to epidemic control could be high, but were observed only in fragile settings. In a typical influenza infection, NAIs' efficacy is inherently not high, and even if their efficacy is improved, the effect can be negligible in practice.

Background: Recent epidemics have entailed global discussions on revamping epidemic control and prevention approaches. A general consensus is that all sources of data should be embraced to improve epidemic preparedness. As a disease transmission is inherently governed by individual-level responses, pathogen dynamics within infected hosts posit high potentials to inform population-level phenomena. We propose a multiscale approach showing that individual dynamics were able to reproduce population-level observations., Methods: Using experimental data, we formulated mathematical models of pathogen infection dynamics from which we simulated mechanistically its transmission parameters. The models were then embedded in our implementation of an age-specific contact network that allows to express individual differences relevant to the transmission processes. This approach is illustrated with an example of Ebola virus (EBOV)., Results: The results showed that a within-host infection model can reproduce EBOV's transmission parameters obtained from population data. At the same time, population age-structure, contact distribution and patterns can be expressed using network generating algorithm. This framework opens a vast opportunity to investigate individual roles of factors involved in the epidemic processes. Estimating EBOV's reproduction number revealed a heterogeneous pattern among age-groups, prompting cautions on estimates unadjusted for contact pattern. Assessments of mass vaccination strategies showed that vaccination conducted in a time window from five months before to one week after the start of an epidemic appeared to strongly reduce epidemic size. Noticeably, compared to a non-intervention scenario, a low critical vaccination coverage of 33% cannot ensure epidemic extinction but could reduce the number of cases by ten to hundred times as well as lessen the case-fatality rate., Conclusions: Experimental data on the within-host infection have been able to capture upfront key transmission parameters of a pathogen; the applications of this approach will give us more time to prepare for potential epidemics. The population of interest in epidemic assessments could be modelled with an age-specific contact network without exhaustive amount of data. Further assessments and adaptations for different pathogens and scenarios to explore multilevel aspects in infectious diseases epidemics are underway.

Although combinatorial antiretroviral therapy (cART) potently suppresses the virus, a sterile or functional cure still remains one of the greatest therapeutic challenges worldwide. Reservoirs are infected cells that can maintain HIV persistence for several years in patients with optimal cART, which is a leading obstacle to eradicate the virus. Despite the significant progress that has been made in our understanding of the diversity of cells that promote HIV persistence, many aspects that are critical to the development of effective therapeutic approaches able to purge the latent CD4+ T cell reservoir are poorly understood. Simultaneous purging strategies known as "kick-kill" have been pointed out as promising therapeutic approaches to eliminate the viral reservoir. However, long-term outcomes of purging strategies as well as the effect on the HIV reservoir are still largely fragmented. In this context, mathematical modeling can provide a rationale not only to evaluate the impact on the HIV reservoir but also to facilitate the formulation of hypotheses about potential therapeutic strategies. This review aims to discuss briefly the most recent mathematical modeling contributions, harnessing our knowledge toward the uncharted territory of HIV eradication. In addition, problems associated with current models are discussed, in particular, mathematical models consider only T cell responses but HIV control may also depend on other cell responses as well as chemokines and cytokines dynamics.

Ebola virus (EBOV) infection causes a high death toll, killing a high proportion of EBOV-infected patients within 7 days. Comprehensive data on EBOV infection are fragmented, hampering efforts in developing therapeutics and vaccines against EBOV. Under this circumstance, mathematical models become valuable resources to explore potential controlling strategies. In this paper, we employed experimental data of EBOV-infected nonhuman primates (NHPs) to construct a mathematical framework for determining windows of opportunity for treatment and vaccination. Considering a prophylactic vaccine based on recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus expressing the EBOV glycoprotein (rVSV-EBOV), vaccination could be protective if a subject is vaccinated during a period from one week to four months before infection. For the case of a therapeutic vaccine based on monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), a single dose might resolve the invasive EBOV replication even if it was administrated as late as four days after infection. Our mathematical models can be used as building blocks for evaluating therapeutic and vaccine modalities as well as for evaluating public health intervention strategies in outbreaks. Future laboratory experiments will help to validate and refine the estimates of the windows of opportunity proposed here.

Mathematical modelling approaches have granted a significant contribution to life sciences and beyond to understand experimental results. However, incomplete and inadequate assessments in parameter estimation practices hamper the parameter reliability, and consequently the insights that ultimately could arise from a mathematical model. To keep the diligent works in modelling biological systems from being mistrusted, potential sources of error must be acknowledged. Employing a popular mathematical model in viral infection research, existing means and practices in parameter estimation are exemplified. Numerical results show that poor experimental data is a main source that can lead to erroneous parameter estimates despite the use of innovative parameter estimation algorithms. Arbitrary choices of initial conditions as well as data asynchrony distort the parameter estimates but are often overlooked in modelling studies. This work stresses the existence of several sources of error buried in reports of modelling biological systems, voicing the need for assessing the sources of error, consolidating efforts in solving the immediate difficulties, and possibly reconsidering the use of mathematical modelling to quantify experimental data., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

In the course of influenza A virus (IAV) infections, a secondary bacterial infection frequently leads to serious respiratory conditions provoking high hospitalization and death tolls. Although abundant pro-inflammatory responses have been reported as key contributing factors for these severe dual infections, the relative contributions of cytokines remain largely unclear. In the current study, mathematical modelling based on murine experimental data dissects IFN-γ as a cytokine candidate responsible for impaired bacterial clearance, thereby promoting bacterial growth and systemic dissemination during acute IAV infection. We also found a time-dependent detrimental role of IL-6 in curtailing bacterial outgrowth which was not as distinct as for IFN-γ. Our numerical simulations suggested a detrimental effect of IFN-γ alone and in synergism with IL-6 but no conclusive pathogenic effect of IL-6 and TNF-α alone. This work provides a rationale to understand the potential impact of how to manipulate temporal immune components, facilitating the formulation of hypotheses about potential therapeutic strategies to treat coinfections.

Influenza pandemics and seasonal outbreaks have shown the potential of Influenza A virus (IAV) to enhance susceptibility to a secondary infection with the bacterial pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae (Sp). The high morbidity and mortality rate revealed the poor efficacy of antiviral drugs and vaccines to fight IAV infections. Currently, the most effective treatment for IAV is by antiviral neuraminidase inhibitors. Among them, the most frequently stockpiled is Oseltamivir which reduces viral release and transmission. However, effectiveness of Oseltamivir is compromised by the emergence of resistant IAV strains and secondary bacterial infections. To date, little attention has been given to evaluate how Oseltamivir treatment strategies alter Influenza viral infection in presence of Sp coinfection and a resistant IAV strain emergence. In this paper we investigate the efficacy of current approved Oseltamivir treatment regimens using a computational approach. Our numerical results suggest that the curative regimen (75 mg) may yield 47% of antiviral efficacy and 9% of antibacterial efficacy. An increment in dose to 150 mg (pandemic regimen) may increase the antiviral efficacy to 49% and the antibacterial efficacy to 16%. The choice to decrease the intake frequency to once per day is not recommended due to a significant reduction in both antiviral and antibacterial efficacy. We also observe that the treatment duration of 10 days may not provide a clear improvement on the antiviral and antibacterial efficacy compared to 5 days. All together, our in silico study reveals the success and pitfalls of Oseltamivir treatment strategies within IAV-Sp coinfection and calls for testing the validity in clinical trials.

Influenza A virus (IAV) infection represents a global threat causing seasonal outbreaks and pandemics. Additionally, secondary bacterial infections, caused mainly by Streptococcus pneumoniae, are one of the main complications and responsible for the enhanced morbidity and mortality associated with IAV infections. In spite of the significant advances in our knowledge of IAV infections, holistic comprehension of the interplay between IAV and the host immune response (IR) remains largely fragmented. During the last decade, mathematical modeling has been instrumental to explain and quantify IAV dynamics. In this paper, we review not only the state of the art of mathematical models of IAV infection but also the methodologies exploited for parameter estimation. We focus on the adaptive IR control of IAV infection and the possible mechanisms that could promote a secondary bacterial coinfection. To exemplify IAV dynamics and identifiability issues, a mathematical model to explain the interactions between adaptive IR and IAV infection is considered. Furthermore, in this paper we propose a roadmap for future influenza research. The development of a mathematical modeling framework with a secondary bacterial coinfection, immunosenescence, host genetic factors and responsiveness to vaccination will be pivotal to advance IAV infection understanding and treatment optimization.

The recent outbreaks of Ebola virus (EBOV) infections have underlined the impact of the virus as a major threat for human health. Due to the high biosafety classification of EBOV (level 4), basic research is very limited. Therefore, the development of new avenues of thinking to advance quantitative comprehension of the virus and its interaction with the host cells is urgently needed to tackle this lethal disease. Mathematical modeling of the EBOV dynamics can be instrumental to interpret Ebola infection kinetics on quantitative grounds. To the best of our knowledge, a mathematical modeling approach to unravel the interaction between EBOV and the host cells is still missing. In this paper, a mathematical model based on differential equations is used to represent the basic interactions between EBOV and wild-type Vero cells in vitro. Parameter sets that represent infectivity of pathogens are estimated for EBOV infection and compared with influenza virus infection kinetics. The average infecting time of wild-type Vero cells by EBOV is slower than in influenza infection. Simulation results suggest that the slow infecting time of EBOV could be compensated by its efficient replication. This study reveals several identifiability problems and what kind of experiments are necessary to advance the quantification of EBOV infection. A first mathematical approach of EBOV dynamics and the estimation of standard parameters in viral infections kinetics is the key contribution of this work, paving the way for future modeling works on EBOV infection.

In patients who are receiving prolonged antiretroviral treatment (ART), HIV can persist within a small pool of long-lived resting memory CD4(+) T cells infected with integrated latent virus. This latent reservoir involves distinct memory subsets. Here we provide results that suggest a progressive reduction of the size of the blood latent reservoir around a core of less-differentiated memory subsets (central memory and stem cell-like memory (TSCM) CD4(+) T cells). This process appears to be driven by the differences in initial sizes and decay rates between latently infected memory subsets. Our results also suggest an extreme stability of the TSCM sub-reservoir, the size of which is directly related to cumulative plasma virus exposure before the onset of ART, stressing the importance of early initiation of effective ART. The presence of these intrinsic dynamics within the latent reservoir may have implications for the design of optimal HIV therapeutic purging strategies.

Unlabelled: The consequences of influenza virus infection are generally more severe in individuals over 65 years of age (the elderly). Immunosenescence enhances the susceptibility to viral infections and renders vaccination less effective. Understanding age-related changes in the immune system is crucial in order to design prophylactic and immunomodulatory strategies to reduce morbidity and mortality in the elderly. Here, we propose different mathematical models to provide a quantitative understanding of the immune strategies in the course of influenza virus infection using experimental data from young and aged mice. Simulation results suggested a central role of CD8(+) T cells for adequate viral clearance kinetics in young and aged mice. Adding the removal of infected cells by natural killer cells did not improve the model fit in either young or aged animals. We separately examined the infection-resistant state of cells promoted by the cytokines alpha/beta interferon (IFN-α/β), IFN-γ, and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α). The combination of activated CD8(+) T cells with any of the cytokines provided the best fits in young and aged animals. During the first 3 days after infection, the basic reproductive number for aged mice was 1.5-fold lower than that for young mice (P < 0.05)., Importance: The fits of our models to the experimental data suggest that the increased levels of IFN-α/β, IFN-γ, and TNF-α (the "inflammaging" state) promote slower viral growth in aged mice, which consequently limits the stimulation of immune cells and contributes to the reported impaired responses in the elderly. A quantitative understanding of influenza virus pathogenesis and its shift in the elderly is the key contribution of this work.

HIV is a widespread viral infection without cure. Drug treatment has transformed HIV disease into a treatable long-term infection. However, the appearance of mutations within the viral genome reduces the susceptibility of HIV to drugs. Therefore, a key goal is to extend the time until patients exhibit resistance to all existing drugs. Current HIV treatment guidelines seem poorly supported as practitioners have not achieved a consensus on the optimal time to initiate and to switch antiretroviral treatments. We contribute to this discussion with predictions derived from a mathematical model of HIV dynamics. Our results indicate that early therapy initiation (within 2 years postinfection) is critical to delay AIDS progression. For patients who have not received any therapy during the first 3 years postinfection, switch in response to virological failure may outperform proactive switching strategies. In case that proactive switching is opted, the switching time between therapies should not be larger than 100 days. Further clinical trials are needed to either confirm or falsify these predictions.

Fate decision processes of T lymphocytes are crucial for health and disease. Whether a T lymphocyte is activated, divides, gets anergic, or initiates apoptosis depends on extracellular triggers and intracellular signaling. Free cytosolic calcium dynamics plays an important role in this context. The relative contributions of store-derived calcium entry and calcium entry from extracellular space to T lymphocyte activation are still a matter of debate. Here we develop a quantitative mathematical model of T lymphocyte calcium dynamics in order to establish a tool which allows to disentangle cause-effect relationships between ion fluxes and observed calcium time courses. The model is based on single transmembrane protein characteristics which have been determined in independent experiments. This reduces the number of unknown parameters in the model to a minimum and ensures the predictive power of the model. Simulation results are subsequently used for an analysis of whole cell calcium dynamics measured under various experimental conditions. The model accounts for a variety of these conditions, which supports the suitability of the modeling approach. The simulation results suggest a model in which calcium dynamics dominantly relies on the opening of channels in calcium stores while calcium entry through calcium-release activated channels (CRAC) is more associated with the maintenance of the T lymphocyte calcium levels and prevents the cell from calcium depletion. Our findings indicate that CRAC guarantees a long-term stable calcium level which is required for cell survival and sustained calcium enhancement.