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Suspended sediment concentration is an important estuarine health indicator. Estuarine ecosystems rely on the maintenance of habitat conditions, which are changing due to direct human impact and climate change. This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change relative to engineering measures on estuarine fine sediment dynamics and sediment budgets. We use the highly engineered San Francisco Bay-Delta system as a case study. We apply a process-based modeling approach (Delft3D-FM) to assess the changes in hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics resulting from climate change and engineering scenarios. The scenarios consider a direct human impact (shift in water pumping location), climate change (sea level rise and suspended sediment concentration decrease), and abrupt disasters (island flooding, possibly as the results of an earthquake). Levee failure has the largest impact on the hydrodynamics of the system. Reduction in sediment input from the watershed has the greatest impact on turbidity levels, which are key to primary production and define habitat conditions for endemic species. Sea level rise leads to more sediment suspension and a net sediment export if little room for accommodation is left in the system due to continuous engineering works. Mitigation measures like levee reinforcement are effective for addressing direct human impacts, but less effective for a persistent, widespread, and increasing threat like sea level rise. Progressive adaptive mitigation measures to the changes in sediment and flow dynamics resulting from sea level rise may be a more effective strategy. Our approach shows that a validated process-based model is a useful tool to address long-term (decades to centuries) changes in sediment dynamics in highly engineered estuarine systems. In addition, our modeling approach provides a useful basis for long-term, process-based studies addressing ecosystem dynamics and health., Coastal Engineering

Morphodynamic equilibrium is a widely adopted yet elusive concept in the field of geomorphology of coasts, rivers and estuaries. Based on the Exner equation, an expression of mass conservation of sediment, we distinguish three types of equilibrium defined as static and dynamic, of which two different types exist. Other expressions such as statistical and quasi-equilibrium which do not strictly satisfy the Exner conditions are also acknowledged for their practical use. The choice of a temporal scale is imperative to analyse the type of equilibrium. We discuss the difference between morphodynamic equilibrium in the "real world" (nature) and the "virtual world" (model). Modelling studies rely on simplifications of the real world and lead to understanding of process interactions. A variety of factors affect the use of virtual-world predictions in the real world (e.g., variability in environmental drivers and variability in the setting) so that the concept of morphodynamic equilibrium should be mathematically unequivocal in the virtual world and interpreted over the appropriate spatial and temporal scale in the real world. We draw examples from estuarine settings which are subject to various governing factors which broadly include hydrodynamics, sedimentology and landscape setting. Following the traditional "tide-wave-river" ternary diagram, we summarize studies todate that explore the "virtual world", discuss the type of equilibrium reached and how it relates to the real world., Coastal Engineering, Environmental Fluid Mechanics

Estuarine tidal mudflats form unique habitats and maintain valuable ecosystems. Historic measurements of a mudflat in San Fancsico Bay over the past 150 years suggest the development of a rather stable mudflat profile. This raises questions on its origin and governing processes as well as on the mudflats’ faith under scenarios of sea level rise and decreasing sediment supply. We developed a 1D morphodynamic profile model (Delft3D) that is able to reproduce the 2011 measured mudflat profile. The main, schematised, forcings of the model are a constant tidal cycle and constant wave action. The model shows that wave action suspends sediment that is transported landward during flood. A depositional front moves landward until landward bed levels are high enough to carry an equal amount of sediment back during ebb. This implies that, similar to observations, the critical shear stress for erosion is regularly exceeded during the tidal cycle and that modelled equilibrium conditions include high suspended sediment concentrations at the mudflat. Shear stresses are highest during low water, while shear stresses are lower than critical (and highest at the landward end) along the mudflat during high water. Scenarios of sea level rise and decreasing sediment supply drown the mudflat. In addition, the mudflat becomes more prone to channel incision because landward accumulation is hampered. This research suggests that sea level rise is a serious threat to the presence of many estuarine intertidal mudflats, adjacent salt marshes and their associated ecological values., Coastal Engineering

© The Author(s), 2010. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Natural Hazards 63 (2012): 51-84, doi:10.1007/s11069-010-9622-6., Waters from the Atlantic Ocean washed southward across parts of Anegada, east-northeast of Puerto Rico, during a singular event a few centuries ago. The overwash, after crossing a fringing coral reef and 1.5 km of shallow subtidal flats, cut dozens of breaches through sandy beach ridges, deposited a sheet of sand and shell capped with lime mud, and created inland fields of cobbles and boulders. Most of the breaches extend tens to hundreds of meters perpendicular to a 2-km stretch of Anegada’s windward shore. Remnants of the breached ridges stand 3 m above modern sea level, and ridges seaward of the breaches rise 2.2–3.0 m high. The overwash probably exceeded those heights when cutting the breaches by overtopping and incision of the beach ridges. Much of the sand-and-shell sheet contains pink bioclastic sand that resembles, in grain size and composition, the sand of the breached ridges. This sand extends as much as 1.5 km to the south of the breached ridges. It tapers southward from a maximum thickness of 40 cm, decreases in estimated mean grain size from medium sand to very fine sand, and contains mud laminae in the south. The sand-and-shell sheet also contains mollusks—cerithid gastropods and the bivalve Anomalocardia—and angular limestone granules and pebbles. The mollusk shells and the lime-mud cap were probably derived from a marine pond that occupied much of Anegada’s interior at the time of overwash. The boulders and cobbles, nearly all composed of limestone, form fields that extend many tens of meters generally southward from limestone outcrops as much as 0.8 km from the nearest shore. Soon after the inferred overwash, the marine pond was replaced by hypersaline ponds that produce microbial mats and evaporite crusts. This environmental change, which has yet to be reversed, required restriction of a former inlet or inlets, the location of which was probably on the island’s south (lee) side. The inferred overwash may have caused restriction directly by washing, The work was supported in part by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission under its project N6480, a tsunami-hazard assessment for the eastern United States.

Case studies of recent tsunami impacts have proven to be extremely useful in understanding the geologic processes involved during inundation and return flow, and refining the criteria used to identify paleotsunami deposits in the geologic record. Here, we report on erosion, deposition and associated landscape change resulting from the March 11, 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami along a nearly 4.5 km shore-normal transect on the coastal plain near Sendai, Japan. The study area on the broad, low-relief prograding coastal Sendai plain comprised a sand beach backed by ~ 3 m high sand dunes and a forest, a wetland, the Teizan canal, agricultural rice fields, buildings and roads. Field observations focused on measurements of tsunami flow characteristics (height and direction), mapping of erosion features and assessing sediment deposition based on shallow trenches at 50–100 m spacing. Recorded tsunami inundation heights reached up to about 11 m above mean sea level within the first 500 m from the shoreline and then ranged between 3 and 5 m for the next 2 km, gradually decreasing to about 3 m close to the inundation limit. The tsunami deposit generally thinned landward from an average maximum ~ 30 cm thick sand deposit in the coastal forest to a thin mud drape several mm thick near the inundation limit. A discontinuous sand-dominated sheet was prevalent to about 2800 m from the shoreline where mud content then gradually increased further landward eventually resulting in a mud-dominated deposit ranging from 3.5 cm to a few mm thickness. The overall thinning and fining of the deposit was often interrupted by localized features that led to complex sedimentological relationships over short distances. Satellite imagery taken on 14 March 2011, 3 days after the Tohoku-oki Tsunami shows prominent foreshore incisions with 100 s + meters spacing alongshore, a foredune ridge that underwent severe erosion and development of a prominent shore-parallel elongated scour depression. Our field survey

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 93 (2011): 142-150, doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2011.04.004., Simulations of estuarine bathymetric change over decadal timescales require methods for idealization and reduction of forcing data and boundary conditions. Continuous simulations are hampered by computational and data limitations and results are rarely evaluated with observed bathymetric change data. Bathymetric change data for Suisun Bay, California span the 1867–1990 period with five bathymetric surveys during that period. The four periods of bathymetric change were modeled using a coupled hydrodynamic-sediment transport model operated at the tidal-timescale. The efficacy of idealization techniques was investigated by discontinuously simulating the four periods. The 1867–1887 period, used for calibration of wave energy and sediment parameters, was modeled with an average error of 37% while the remaining periods were modeled with error ranging from 23% to 121%. Variation in post-calibration performance is attributed to temporally variable sediment parameters and lack of bathymetric and configuration data for portions of Suisun Bay and the Delta. Modifying seaward sediment delivery and bed composition resulted in large performance increases for post-calibration periods suggesting that continuous simulation with constant parameters is unrealistic. Idealization techniques which accelerate morphological change should therefore be used with caution in estuaries where parameters may change on sub-decadal timescales. This study highlights the utility and shortcomings of estuarine geomorphic models for estimating past changes in forcing mechanisms such as sediment supply and bed composition. The results further stress the inherent difficulty of simulating estuarine changes over decadal timescales due to changes in configuration, benthic composition, and anthropogenic forcing such as dredging and channelization., This study was supported by the U.S Geological Survey’s Priority Ecosystems Science program, CALFED Bay/Delta Program, and the University of California Center forWater Resources.

The East Japan Earthquake (Mw 9.0) and associated tsunami struck the Pacific coast of eastern Japan on March 11th, 2011 at 2:46 p.m. (Japan Standard Time). Maximum run-up heights reached about 40 m along the Sanriku region’s coast and around 10 m on the Sendai coastline. The coasts of Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima Prefectures in particular were badly damaged, and a considerable amount of time and money will be required to restore these areas. Tsunami inundation up to 5 km inland occurred across the Sendai Plain, which remained partly flooded for several weeks after the event. Some areas were still under water 2 months after the earthquake, and are likely to remain flooded for some time as a result of subsidence. The Disaster Control Research Center at Tohoku University conducted scientific research of the inundated coastal plains of Sendai, Natori and Iwanuma Cities in collaboration with other research institutes from Japan and overseas with the support of UNESCO-IOC (Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission). Data and samples collected during the field survey are now being analyzed by various institutes around the World. This report is a summary of our field survey that focused on an area to the north of Sendai Airport. Radioactivity data recorded at the time of survey are also provided.

We report initial results from our recent field survey documenting the inundation and resultant deposits of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami from Sendai Plain, Japan. The tsunami inundated up to 4.5 km inland but the > 0.5 cm-thick sand deposit extended only 2.8 km (62% of the inundation distance). The deposit however continued as a mud layer to the inundation limit. The mud deposit contained high concentrations of water-leachable chloride and we conclude that geochemical markers and microfossil data may prove to be useful in identifying the maximum inundation limit of paleotsunamis that could extend well beyond any preserved sand layer. Our newly acquired data on the 2011 event suggest that previous estimates of paleotsunamis (e.g. 869 AD Jōgan earthquake and tsunami) in this area have probably been underestimated. If the 2011 and 869 AD events are indeed comparable, the risk from these natural hazards in Japan is much greater than previously recognized.

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 114 (2009): F04019, doi:10.1029/2008JF001191., Hindcasting decadal-timescale bathymetric change in estuaries is prone to error due to limited data for initial conditions, boundary forcing, and calibration; computational limitations further hinder efforts. We developed and calibrated a tidal-timescale model to bathymetric change in Suisun Bay, California, over the 1867–1887 period. A general, multiple-timescale calibration ensured robustness over all timescales; two input reduction methods, the morphological hydrograph and the morphological acceleration factor, were applied at the decadal timescale. The model was calibrated to net bathymetric change in the entire basin; average error for bathymetric change over individual depth ranges was 37%. On a model cell-by-cell basis, performance for spatial amplitude correlation was poor over the majority of the domain, though spatial phase correlation was better, with 61% of the domain correctly indicated as erosional or depositional. Poor agreement was likely caused by the specification of initial bed composition, which was unknown during the 1867–1887 period. Cross-sectional bathymetric change between channels and flats, driven primarily by wind wave resuspension, was modeled with higher skill than longitudinal change, which is driven in part by gravitational circulation. The accelerated response of depth may have prevented gravitational circulation from being represented properly. As performance criteria became more stringent in a spatial sense, the error of the model increased. While these methods are useful for estimating basin-scale sedimentation changes, they may not be suitable for predicting specific locations of erosion or deposition. They do, however, provide a foundation for realistic estuarine geomorphic modeling applications., This study was supported by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Priority Ecosystems Science program, CALFED Bay/Delta Program, and the University of California Center for Water Resources. Use of ROMS and the CSTMS was supported by the U.S. Geological Survey, with assistance from John Warner.

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Journal of Coastal Research 20 (2004): 510-522, doi:10.2112/1551-5036(2004)020[0510:IONSOC]2.0.CO;2., Lake-level change and landslides are primary controls on the development of coastal environments along the coast of northeastern Lake Michigan. The late Quaternary geology of Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore was examined with high-resolution seismic reflection profiles, ground-penetrating radar (GPR), and boreholes. Based on sequence-stratigraphic principles, this study recognizes ten stratigraphic units and three major unconformities that were formed by late Pleistocene glaciation and postglacial lake-level changes. Locally high sediment supply, and reworking by two regressions and a transgression have produced a complex stratigraphy that is prone to episodic failure. In 1995, a large landslide deposited approximately 1 million m3 of sediment on the lake floor. The highly deformed landslide deposits, up to 18 m thick, extend 3–4 km offshore and unconformably overlie well-stratified glacial and lacustrine sediment. The landslide-prone bluff is underlain by channel-fill deposits that are oriented nearly perpendicular to the shoreline. The paleochannels are at least 10 m deep and 400 m wide and probably represent stream incision during a lake-level lowstand about 10.3 ka B.P. The channels filled with sediment during the subsequent transgression and lake-level highstand, which climaxed about 4.5 ka B.P. As lake level fell from the highstand, the formation of beach ridges and sand dunes sealed off the channel and isolated a small inland lake (Glen Lake), which lies 5 m above the level of Lake Michigan and may be a source of piped groundwater. Our hypothesis is that the paleochannels act as conduits for pore water flow, and thereby locally reduce soil strength and promote slope failure., Generous support for this project was provided by Max Holden and Steve Yancho of Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore.