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This paper presents one of the first real-life demonstrations of coordinated and distributed resource control for secondary frequency response in a power distribution grid. A series of tests involved up to 69 heterogeneous active distributed energy resources consisting of air handling units, unidirectional and bidirectional electric vehicle charging stations, a battery energy storage system, and 107 passive distributed energy resources consisting of building loads and solar photovoltaic systems. The distributed control setup consists of a set of Raspberry Pi end-points exchanging messages via an Ethernet switch. Actuation commands for the distributed energy resources are obtained by solving a power allocation problem at every regulation instant using distributed ratio-consensus, primal-dual, and Newton-like algorithms. The problem formulation minimizes the sum of distributed energy resource costs while tracking the aggregate setpoint provided by the system operator. We demonstrate accurate and fast real-time distributed computation of the optimization solution and effective tracking of the regulation signal over 40 min time horizons. An economic benefit analysis confirms eligibility to participate in an ancillary services market and demonstrates up to $\$ $ 53k of potential annual revenue for the selected population of distributed energy resources.

Concentrated solar power (CSP) technology can not only match peak demand in power systems but also play an important role in the carbon neutrality pathway worldwide. Actions in China is decisive. Few previous studies have estimated CSP technology’s power generation and CO2 emission reduction potentials in China. To address this knowledge gap, the geographical, technical, and CO2 emission reduction potential of CSP in China was evaluated by province based on a high resolution geographical information system with up-to-date data. A comprehensive framework including geographic and technical constrains was proposed. Exclusion criteria including solar radiation, slope, land-use type, natural reserve, and water resources were adopted to determine the suitability of CSP plant construction. Then, based on the power conversion efficiency difference from various CSP technologies, the technical potential was calculated on suitable land. The results show that approximately 1.02 × 106 km2 of land is available to support CSP development in China. Based on the available solar resource on the suitable land, the geographical potential is 2.13 × 1015 kWh. The potential installed capacity is 2.45 × 107–5.40 × 107 MW, considering four CSP technologies. The corresponding annual energy generation potential is 6.46 × 1013–1.85 × 1014 kWh. Considering the scenario of using the potential of CSP to replace the current power supply to the maximum extent, CO2 emission would have been reduced by 5.19 × 108, 5.61 × 108, and 6.24 × 108 t in 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively. At the provincial level, more than 99% of China’s technical potential is concentrated in five western provinces, including Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Gansu, and Tibet. These results provide policy guidance and serve as a reference for the future development of CSP and site selection for CSP plant construction both in China and worldwide.

Operating distribution grids is increasingly challenging due to the increasing penetration of photovoltaic systems. To address these challenges, modern photovoltaic inverters include features for local control, which sometimes lead to suboptimal results. Improved communication infrastructure and photovoltaic inverters favour global control strategies, which receive information from all the systems in the grid. An estimation of distribution algorithm is used to optimize a global control strategy that minimizes active power curtailment and use of reactive power of the photovoltaic inverters, while maintaining voltage stability. Optimized global control outperforms every other local control evaluated in terms of apparent energy used for control (9.9% less usage compared to the second best alternative in all scenarios studied) and ranks second in terms of voltage stability (with a 0.14% of total time outside the voltage limits). Two new indicators to compare control strategies are proposed, and optimized global control strategy ranks best for both efficiency index (0.98) and average apparent power use (0.48 kVA).

This paper presents an optimized logistic regression machine learning model that predicts the occupancy of an Electric Vehicle (EV) charging station given the occupancy of neighboring stations. The model was optimized for the time of day. Trained on data from 57 EV charging stations around the University of California San Diego campus, the model achieved an 88.43% average accuracy and 92.23% maximum accuracy in predicting occupancy, outperforming a persistence model benchmark., 5 pages, 3 figures

Author(s): Zapata, Monica Zamora; Norris, Joel R; Kleissl, Jan | Abstract: Abstract The impact of initial states and meteorological variables on stratocumulus cloud dissipation time over coastal land is investigated using a mixed-layer model. A large set of realistic initial conditions and forcing parameters are derived from radiosonde observations and numerical weather prediction model outputs, including total water mixing ratio and liquid water potential temperature profiles (within the boundary layer, across the capping inversion, and at 3 km), inversion-base height and cloud thickness, large-scale divergence, wind speed, Bowen ratio, sea surface fluxes, sky effective radiative temperature, shortwave irradiance above the cloud, and sea level pressure. We study the sensitivity of predicted dissipation time using two analyses. In the first, we simulate 195 cloudy days (all variables covary as observed in nature). We caution that simulated predictions correlate only weakly to observations of dissipation time, but the simulation approach is robust and facilitates covariability testing. In the second, a single variable is varied around an idealized reference case. While both analyses agree in that initial conditions influence dissipation time more than forcing parameters, some results with covariability differ greatly from the more traditional sensitivity analysis and with previous studies: opposing trends are observed for boundary layer total water mixing ratio and Bowen ratio, and covariability diminishes the sensitivity to cloud thickness and inversion height by a factor of 5. With covariability, the most important features extending predicted cloud lifetime are (i) initially thicker clouds, higher inversion height, and stronger temperature inversion jumps, and (ii) boundary forcings of lower sky effective radiative temperature.

The role of nonlocal transport on the development and maintenance of marine stratocumulus (Sc) clouds in coarse-resolution models is investigated, with a special emphasis on the downdraft contribution. A new parameterization of cloud-top-triggered downdrafts is proposed and validated against large-eddy simulation (LES) for two Sc cases. The applied nonlocal mass-flux scheme is part of the stochastic multiplume eddy-diffusivity/mass-flux (EDMF) framework decomposing the turbulent transport into local and nonlocal contributions. The complementary local turbulent transport is represented with the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) scheme. This EDMF version has been implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) single-column model (SCM) and tested for three model versions: without mass flux, with updrafts only, and with both updrafts and downdrafts. In the LES, the downdraft and updraft contributions to the total heat and moisture transport are comparable and significant. The WRF SCM results show a good agreement between the parameterized downdraft turbulent transport and LES. While including updrafts greatly improves the modeling of Sc clouds over the simulation without mass flux, the addition of downdrafts is less significant, although it helps improve the moisture profile in the planetary boundary layer.

The urban overheating, driven by the increasing expansion of our cities and the global climate change, is becoming one of the main environmental challenges of today. Consequently, cooling technologies are emerging as mitigation and adaptation strategies. Reflective roof and pavement surfaces have been widely studied for their potential benefits, but detailed evaluations of the effect of wall albedo on the urban microclimate are limited. This study addresses this gap by evaluating the effects of reflective walls on urban energy use and outdoor climate. The energy balance of an idealized neighborhood is represented using a 3D numerical model, Temperature of Urban Facets Indoor-Outdoor Building Energy Simulator (TUF-IOBES), which determines the cooling loads and outdoor air temperature. The study focuses on the tropical climate of Singapore, addressing the urban climate in highly-populated cities in low latitudes that are significantly affected by the UHI. Simulations are conducted for two neighborhoods representative of low-rise residential and high-rise commercial urban areas, spanning a range of urban density, canyon geometry, building construction, and occupant schedules. The building thermal load and outdoor temperature are then calculated for these two idealized neighborhoods, analyzing the effectiveness of cool walls while also considering the role of other design factors such as window-to-wall ratio (WWR) and glazing solar heat gain coefficient (SHGC) in modulating the impact. Unlike the analysis of cool roofs, we find that a universal conclusion regarding the impact of cool walls cannot be drawn. The role of wall albedo significantly depends on the collective design of urban areas as well as the use and occupancy of buildings. We find that urban density (in other words the local climate zone) followed by window properties are important factors in determining the impact of wall albedo on thermal loads and UHI, as they determine the radiative exchange between and into the buildings. Accordingly, contrary to the general expectation, for a high urban density (commercial neighborhood LCZ6) and high WWR and SHGC, we observe that cool (reflective) walls can increase the building energy use. Regarding UHI, increasing the reflectivity of walls decreases the canopy air temperature but the impact is marginal (∼ 0.1 °C) compared to other urban design parameters. Keywords: Cool walls; Reflective surfaces; Building energy use; Urban heat island; Urban design

Forecast errors can cause sub-optimal solutions in resource planning optimization, yet they are usually modeled simplistically by statistical models, causing unrealistic impacts on the optimal solutions. In this paper, realistic forecast errors are prescribed, and a corrective approach is proposed to mitigate the negative effects of day-ahead persistence forecast error by short-term forecasts from a state-of-the-art sky imager system. These forecasts preserve the spatiotemporal dependence structure of forecast errors avoiding statistical approximations. The performance of the proposed algorithm is tested on a receding horizon quadratic program developed for valley filling the midday net load depression through electric vehicle charging. Throughout one month of simulations the ability to flatten net load is assessed under practical forecast accuracy levels achievable from persistence, sky imager and perfect forecasts. Compared to using day-ahead persistence solar forecasts, the proposed corrective approach using sky imager forecasts delivers a 25% reduction in the standard deviation of the daily net load. It is demonstrated that correcting day-ahead forecasts in real time with more accurate short-term forecasts benefits the valley filling solution.

Quasi-steady state time-series (QSTS) simulation of distribution feeders can become computationally burdensome due to many buses and devices, long simulation horizons, and/or high temporal resolution. To reduce this burden, network reduction removes buses and shifts loads/generation to the remaining buses of the circuit to produce a smaller equivalent. However, voltage-controlled devices have traditionally limited network reduction, since their operation depends on the measurement of voltage at their local bus. This work includes the reduction of buses with voltage-controlled devices by replacing the local voltage measurement with an estimate from a fast voltage sensitivity approach, which is integrated directly into a modified QSTS simulation. Comprehensive tests on an unbalanced feeder with real operating data and volt-var controlled inverters show agreement in cumulative reactive power output between the reduced and the original feeder circuits. The maximum voltage error is 0.005 Vp.u., which is nearly identical to the error in a benchmark reduction without smart inverter voltage control. The algorithm convergences for every time step, even when reducing the frequency of which the voltage estimation was updated. While the reduction methodology is demonstrated for inverter volt-var control, since it represents a frequent use case, it can be extended to other voltage-controlled devices.

The field of energy forecasting has attracted many researchers from different fields (e.g., meteorology, data sciences, mechanical or electrical engineering) over the last decade. Solar forecasting is a fast-growing subdomain of energy forecasting. Despite several previous attempts, the methods and measures used for verification of deterministic (also known as single-valued or point) solar forecasts are still far from being standardized, making forecast analysis and comparison difficult. To analyze and compare solar forecasts, the well-established Murphy–Winkler framework for distribution-oriented forecast verification is recommended as a standard practice. This framework examines aspects of forecast quality, such as reliability, resolution, association, or discrimination, and analyzes the joint distribution of forecasts and observations, which contains all time-independent information relevant to verification. To verify forecasts, one can use any graphical display or mathematical/statistical measure to provide insights and summarize the aspects of forecast quality. The majority of graphical methods and accuracy measures known to solar forecasters are specific methods under this general framework. Additionally, measuring the overall skillfulness of forecasters is also of general interest. The use of the root mean square error (RMSE) skill score based on the optimal convex combination of climatology and persistence methods is highly recommended. By standardizing the accuracy measure and reference forecasting method, the RMSE skill score allows—with appropriate caveats—comparison of forecasts made using different models, across different locations and time periods. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Photovoltaic (PV) smart inverters can improve the voltage profile of distribution networks. A multi-objective optimization framework for coordination of reactive power injection of smart inverters and tap operations of on-load tap changers (OLTCs) for multi-phase unbalanced distribution systems is proposed. The optimization objective is to minimize voltage deviations and the number of tap operations simultaneously. A novel linearization method is proposed to linearize power flow equations and to convexify the problem, which guarantees convergence of the optimization and less computation costs. The optimization is modeled and solved using mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). The proposed method is validated against conventional rule-based autonomous voltage regulation (AVR) on the highly-unbalanced modified IEEE 37 bus test system and a large California utility feeder. Simulation results show that the proposed method accurately estimates feeder voltage, significantly reduces voltage deviations, mitigates over-voltage problems, and reduces voltage unbalance while eliminating unnecessary tap operations. The robustness of the method is validated against various levels of forecast error. The computational efficiency and scalability of the proposed approach are also demonstrated through the simulations on the large utility feeder., Comment: Accepted for Electric Power Systems Research. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1901.09509

Large ramps and ramp rates in photovoltaic (PV) power output are of concern and sometimes even explicitly restricted by grid operators. Battery energy storage systems can smooth the power output and maintain ramp rates within permissible limits. To enable PV plant and energy storage system design and planning, a method to estimate the largest expected ramps for a given location is proposed. Because clouds are the dominant source of PV power output variability, an analytical relationship between the worst expected ramp rate, cloud motion vector, and the geometrical layout of the PV plant is developed. The ability of the proposed method to bracket actual ramp rates is assessed over 10 months under different meteorological conditions, demonstrating an average compliance rate of 98.9% for a 2 min evaluation time window. The largest observed ramp of 29.7% s(-1)is contained with the worst case estimate of 34.3% s(-1). This method provides a convenient yet economical approach to worst-case PV ramp rate modeling and is compatible with solar irradiance measured at coarse temporal resolution. Juan Bosch was financed in part by Project No. PID2019-108953RB-C21, funded by the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund. In addition, Iñigo de la Parra was partially supported by the Spanish State Research Agency (AEI) and FEDER-UE under Grant Nos. DPI2016-80641-R and DPI2016-80642-R.

In many jurisdictions, policy-makers are seeking to decentralize the electric power system while also promoting deep reductions in the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG). We examine the potential roles for residential energy storage (RES), a technology thought to be at the epicenter of these twin revolutions. We model the impact of grid-connected RES operation on electricity costs and GHG emissions for households in 16 of the largest U.S. utility service territories under 3 plausible operational modes. Regardless of operation mode, RES mostly increases emissions when users seek to minimize their electricity cost. When operated with the goal of minimizing emissions, RES can reduce average household emissions by 2.2-6.4%, implying a cost equivalent of $180 to $5160 per metric ton of carbon dioxide avoided. While RES is costly compared with many other emission-control measures, tariffs that internalize the social cost of carbon would reduce emissions by 0.1-5.9% relative to cost-minimizing operation. Policy-makers should be careful about assuming that decentralization will clean the electric power system, especially if it proceeds without carbon-mindful tariff reforms.

High solar Photovoltaic (PV) penetration on distribution systems can cause over-voltage problems. To this end, an Optimal Tap Control (OTC) method is proposed to regulate On-Load Tap Changers (OLTCs) by minimizing the maximum deviation of the voltage profile from 1 p.u. on the entire feeder. A secondary objective is to reduce the number of tap operations (TOs), which is implemented for the optimization horizon based on voltage forecasts derived from high resolution PV generation forecasts. A linearization technique is applied to make the optimization problem convex and able to be solved at operational timescales. Simulations on a PC show the solution time for one time step is only 1.1 s for a large feeder with 4 OLTCs and 1623 buses. OTC results are compared against existing methods through simulations on two feeders in the Californian network. OTC is firstly compared against an advanced rule-based Voltage Level Control (VLC) method. OTC and VLC achieve the same reduction of voltage violations, but unlike VLC, OTC is capable of coordinating multiple OLTCs. Scalability to multiple OLTCs is therefore demonstrated against a basic conventional rule-based control method called Autonomous Tap Control (ATC). Comparing to ATC, the test feeder under control of OTC can accommodate around 67% more PV without over-voltage issues. Though a side effect of OTC is an increase in tap operations, the secondary objective functionally balances operations between all OLTCs such that impacts on their lifetime and maintenance are minimized.

Improved coastal stratocumulus (Sc) cloud forecasts are needed because traditional satellite cloud motion vectors (CMV) do not accurately predict how Sc clouds move or dissipate in time, which often results in an underprediction of irradiance in the morning hours. CMV forecasts assume clouds move in the direction of the average regional wind field, which is not necessarily the case for Sc clouds. Sc clouds over the land form at night and typically reach their maximum coverage before sunrise. During the day, heating from solar radiation at the surface and entrainment of dry and warm air from above causes Sc clouds to dissipate. A Sc cloud edge forecast using Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite is proposed to improve Sc cloud dissipation forecasts during the day. The inland edge of the Sc clouds is tracked in time and extrapolated into the future. For coastal regions where land elevation increases away from the coast, such as coastal California, the Sc cloud inland boundary is correlated to the land elevation. Dissipation after sunrise often follows land elevation as the mass of air required to be heated to become cloud-free decreases with increasing elevation as cloud top height is fairly constant along the cloud edge. The correlation between land elevation and the Sc cloud eastern boundary is exploited by extrapolating the evolution of cloud edge elevation in time. This method is tested in central and northern California on 25 days and in southern California on 19 days. When compared to the CMV (persistence forecasts), the proposed Sc cloud edge forecasts show a reduction of 30 W m−2 (104 W m−2) in hourly mean absolute error (MAE) of global horizontal irradiance (GHI). Additionally, out of 11 stations the Sc cloud edge forecast results show a higher forecast skill than CMV (persistence) at 7 (9) stations.

Urban morphology and inter-building shadowing result in a non-uniform distribution of surface heating in urban areas, which can significantly modify the urban flow and thermal field. In Part I, we found that in an idealized three-dimensional urban array, the spatial distribution of the thermal field is correlated with the orientation of surface heating with respect to the wind direction (i.e. leeward or windward heating), while the dispersion field changes more strongly with the vertical temperature gradient in the street canyon. Here, we evaluate these results more closely and translate them into metrics of “city breathability,” with large-eddy simulations coupled with an urban energy-balance model employed for this purpose. First, we quantify breathability by, (i) calculating the pollutant concentration at the pedestrian level (horizontal plane at $$z\approx 1.5$$ –2 m) and averaged over the canopy, and (ii) examining the air exchange rate at the horizontal and vertical ventilating faces of the canyon, such that the in-canopy pollutant advection is distinguished from the vertical removal of pollution. Next, we quantify the change in breathability metrics as a function of previously defined buoyancy parameters, horizontal and vertical Richardson numbers ( $$Ri_\text {h}$$ and $$Ri_\text {v}$$ , respectively), which characterize realistic surface heating. We find that, unlike the analysis of airflow and thermal fields, consideration of the realistic heating distribution is not crucial in the analysis of city breathability, as the pollutant concentration is mainly correlated with the vertical temperature gradient ( $$Ri_\text {v}$$ ) as opposed to the horizontal ( $$Ri_\text {h}$$ ) or bulk ( $$Ri_\text {b}$$ ) thermal forcing. Additionally, we observe that, due to the formation of the primary vortex, the air exchange rate at the roof level (the horizontal ventilating faces of the building canyon) is dominated by the mean flow. Lastly, since $$Ri_\text {h}$$ and $$Ri_\text {v}$$ depend on the meteorological factors (ambient air temperature, wind speed, and wind direction) as well as urban design parameters (such as surface albedo), we propose a methodology for mapping overall outdoor ventilation and city breathability using this characterization method. This methodology helps identify the effects of design on urban microclimate, and ultimately informs urban designers and architects of the impact of their design on air quality, human health, and comfort.

The main contributor to spatio-temporal variability in the solar resource is clouds passing over photovoltaic (PV) modules. Cloud velocity is a principal input to many short-term forecast and variability models. In this paper spatio-temporal correlations of irradiance data are analyzed to estimate cloud motion. The analysis is performed using two spatially and temporally resolved simulated irradiance datasets generated from large eddy simulation. Cloud motion is estimated using two different methods; the cross-correlation method (CCM) applied to two or a few consecutive time steps and cross-spectral analysis (CSA) where the cloud speed and direction are estimated by cross-spectral analysis of a longer time series. CSA is modified to estimate the cloud motion direction as the case with least variation for all the velocities in the cloud motion direction. To ensure reliable cloud motion estimation, quality control (QC) is added to the CSA and CCM analyses. The results show 33% (52°) and 21% (6°) improvement in the cloud motion speed (direction) estimation using the modified CSA and CCM over the original methods (without QC), respectively. In general, CCM results are accurate for all the different cloud cover fractions with average relative mean bias error (rMBE) of cloud speed and mean absolute error of cloud direction equal to 3% and 3°, respectively. For low cloud cover fractions, CSA estimates the cloud motion speed and direction with rMBE and mean absolute error equal to 10% and 11°, respectively. However, for high cloud cover fractions and unsteady cloud speed, CSA results are not reliable for 3–4 h time series; however, splitting the whole time series into shorter time intervals reduces the rMBE and mean absolute error to 15% and 16° respectively.

The intra-hour intermittency of solar energy and demand introduce significant design challenges for microgrids. To avoid costly energy shortfalls and mitigate outage probability, islanded microgrids must be designed with sufficient distributed energy resources (DER) to meet demand and fulfill the energy and power balance. To avoid excessive runtime, current design tools typically only utilize hourly data. As such, the variable nature of solar and demand is often overlooked. Thus, DER designed based on hourly data may result in significant energy shortfalls when deployed in real-world conditions. This research introduces a new, fast method for optimizing DER investments and performing dispatch planning to consider intra-hour variability. A novel set of constraints which operate on intra-hour data are implemented in a mixed-integer-linear-program microgrid investment optimization. Variability is represented by the single worst-case intra-hour fluctuation. This allows for fast optimization times compared to other approaches tested. Applied to a residential microgrid case study with 5-minute intra-hour resolution, this new method is shown to maintain optimality within 2% and reduce runtime by 98.2% compared to full-scale-optimizations which consider every time-step explicitly. Applicable to a variety of technologies and demand types, this method provides a general framework for incorporating intra-hour variability into microgrid design.

Whole sky imagers are commonly used for forecasting irradiance available for solar energy production, but validation of the forecast models used is difficult due to sparse reference data. We document the use of Large Eddy Simulations (LES) and a 3D Radiative Transfer Model to produce virtual clouds, sky images, and radiation measurements, which permit comprehensive validation of the sky imager forecast. We then use this virtual testbed to investigate the primary sources of sky imager forecast error on a cumulus cloud scene. The largest source of nowcast (0-min-ahead forecast) errors is the converging-ray geometry implied by use of a camera, while longer-term forecasts suffer from overly-simplistic assumptions about cloud evolution. We expect to use these findings to focus future algorithm development, and the virtual testbed to evaluate our progress.

This work proposes forecast models for solar-integrated, utility-scale feeders in the San Diego Gas & Electric operating region. The models predict the net load for horizons ranging from 10 to 30 min. The forecasting methods implemented include hybrid methods based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR), which are both coupled with image processing methods for sky images. These methods are compared against reference persistence methods. Three enhancement methods are implemented to further decrease forecasting error: (1) decomposing the time series of the net load to remove low-frequency load variation due to daily human activities; (2) segregating the model training between daytime and nighttime; and (3) incorporating sky image features as exogenous inputs in the daytime forecasts. The ANN and SVR models are trained and validated using six-month measurements of the net load and assessed using common statistic metrics: MBE, MAPE, rRMSE, and forecast skill, which is defined as the reduction of RMSE over the RMSE of reference persistence model. Results for the independent testing set show that data-driven models, with the enhancement methods, significantly outperform the reference persistence model, achieving forecasting skills (improvement over reference persistence model) as large as 43% depending on location, solar penetration and forecast horizons.

We develop a new convex optimization (CO)-based charge/discharge scheduling algorithm for distributed energy storage systems (ESSs) co-located with solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. The CO-based scheduling algorithm minimizes the monthly electricity expenses of a customer who owns an ESS and incorporates both a time-of-use volumetric tariff and a demand charge tariff. Further, we propose the novel idea of a “supply charge” tariff that incentivizes ESS customers to store excess solar PV generation that may otherwise result in reverse power flow in the distribution grid. By means of a case study we observe the CO-based daily charge/discharge schedules reduce (1) peak net demand (that is, load minus PV generation) of the customer, (2) power fluctuations in the customer net demand profile, and (3) the reliance of the customer on the grid by way of promoting energy self-consumption of local solar PV generation. Two alternate methods for behind-the-meter ESS scheduling are considered as benchmarks for cost minimization, peak net demand reduction, and mitigation of net demand fluctuations. The algorithm is tested using real 30-min interval residential load and solar data of 53 customers over 2-years. Results show that the CO-based scheduling algorithm provides mean peak net demand reductions between 46% and 64%, reduces mean net demand fluctuations by 25–49%, and increases the mean solar PV self-consumption between 24% and 39% when compared to a customer without an ESS. Introduction of a supply charge reduces the maximum solar PV power supply to the grid by 19% on average and does not financially impact ESS owners.

As urbanization progresses, more realistic methods are required to analyze the urban microclimate. However, given the complexity and computational cost of numerical models, the effects of realistic representations should be evaluated to identify the level of detail required for an accurate analysis. We consider the realistic representation of surface heating in an idealized three-dimensional urban configuration, and evaluate the spatial variability of flow statistics (mean flow and turbulent fluxes) in urban streets. Large-eddy simulations coupled with an urban energy balance model are employed, and the heating distribution of urban surfaces is parametrized using sets of horizontal and vertical Richardson numbers, characterizing thermal stratification and heating orientation with respect to the wind direction. For all studied conditions, the thermal field is strongly affected by the orientation of heating with respect to the airflow. The modification of airflow by the horizontal heating is also pronounced for strongly unstable conditions. The formation of the canyon vortices is affected by the three-dimensional heating distribution in both spanwise and streamwise street canyons, such that the secondary vortex is seen adjacent to the windward wall. For the dispersion field, however, the overall heating of urban surfaces, and more importantly, the vertical temperature gradient, dominate the distribution of concentration and the removal of pollutants from the building canyon. Accordingly, the spatial variability of concentration is not significantly affected by the detailed heating distribution. The analysis is extended to assess the effects of three-dimensional surface heating on turbulent transfer. Quadrant analysis reveals that the differential heating also affects the dominance of ejection and sweep events and the efficiency of turbulent transfer (exuberance) within the street canyon and at the roof level, while the vertical variation of these parameters is less dependent on the detailed heating of urban facets.

Computational time in optimization models scales with the number of time steps. To save time, solver time resolution can be reduced and input data can be down-sampled into representative periods such as one or a few representative days per month. However, such data reduction can come at the expense of solution accuracy. In this work, the impact of reduction of input data is systematically isolated considering an optimization which solves an energy system using representative days. A new data reduction method aggregates annual hourly demand data into representative days which preserve demand peaks in the original profiles. The proposed data reduction approach is tested on a real energy system and real annual hourly demand data where the system is optimized to minimize total annual costs. Compared to the full-resolution optimization of the energy system, the total annual energy cost error is found to be equal or less than 0.22% when peaks in customer demand are preserved. Errors are significantly larger for reduction methods that do not preserve peak demand. Solar photovoltaic data reduction effects are also analyzed. This paper demonstrates a need for data reduction methods which consider demand peaks explicitly.

Despite the significant progress made in solar forecasting over the last decade, most of the proposed models cannot be readily used by independent system operators (ISOs). This article proposes an operational solar forecasting algorithm that is closely aligned with the real-time market (RTM) forecasting requirements of the California ISO (CAISO). The algorithm first uses the North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast system to generate hourly forecasts for a 5-h period that are issued 12 h before the actual operating hour, satisfying the lead-time requirement. Subsequently, the world’s fastest similarity search algorithm is adopted to downscale the hourly forecasts generated by NAM to a 15-min resolution, satisfying the forecast-resolution requirement. The 5-h-ahead forecasts are repeated every hour, following the actual rolling update rate of CAISO. Both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts generated using the proposed algorithm are empirically evaluated over a period of 2 years at 7 locations in 5 climate zones.

Photovoltaic (PV) smart inverters can regulate voltage in distribution systems by modulating reactive power of PV systems. In this paper, an optimization framework for optimal coordination of reactive power injection of smart inverters and tap operations of voltage regulators for multi-phase unbalanced distribution systems is proposed. Optimization objectives are minimization of voltage deviations and tap operations. A novel linearization method convexifies the problem and speeds up the solution. The proposed method is validated against conventional rule-based autonomous voltage regulation (AVR) on the highly-unbalanced IEEE 37 bus test system. Simulation results show that the proposed method estimates feeder voltage accurately, voltage deviation reductions are significant, over-voltage problems are mitigated, and voltage imbalance is reduced., Comment: IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting 2019

This paper develops a new microgrid investment planning model that determines cost-optimal investment and operation of distributed energy resources (DERs) in a microgrid. We formulate the problem in a bilevel framework, using particle swarm optimization to determine investment and the DER-CAM model (Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model) to determine operation. The model further uses sequential Monte Carlo simulation to explicitly simulate power outages and integrates time-varying customer damage functions to calculate interruption costs from outages. The model treats nonlinearities in reliability evaluation directly, where existing linear models make critical simplifying assumptions. It combines investment, operating, and interruption costs together in a single objective function, thereby treating reliability endogenously and finding the cost-optimal trade-off between cost and reliability - two competing objectives. In benchmarking against a version of the DER-CAM model that treats reliability through a constraint on minimum investment, our new model improves estimates of reliability (the loss of load expectation) by up to 600%, of the total system cost by 6%-18%, of the investment cost by 32%-50%, and of the economic benefit of investing 27%-47%. Improvements stem from large differences in investment of up to 56% for natural gas generators, solar photovoltaics, and battery energy storage.

Historical observations from radiosondes, buoys, and satellite images are used to generate an analog ensemble (AnEn) solar forecast. In coastal California, Stratocumulus (Sc) clouds appear most frequently during late spring and summer months. Sc clouds form at night and begin to dissipate after sunrise, limiting solar energy generation in the morning hours. The AnEn method categorizes cloudy (as either well-mixed or decoupled) and clear events at the forecast initial time and uses several meteorological variables to find the closest analogs. The AnEn forecast is tested at the NKX weather station in San Diego, CA during May to September 2014-2017. The AnEn forecast has a lower root mean square error than a numerical weather prediction model and 24-hour persistence forecasts. The error is lowest for the clear cases and largest for the cloudy decoupled cases. The AnEn forecast is able to capture Sc dissipation for the well-mixed cases in the early morning, but decoupled cases display higher variability throughout the day and are much harder to predict as a result.

Many solar forecast algorithms based on ground based sky imagery apply the red-blue ratio (RBR) method to classify image pixels as clear or cloudy, by comparing the current image with the corresponding image from a clear sky library (CSL). The CSL needs to be updated regularly due to changes in clear sky readings over time caused by aerosols and imager dome properties. This clear sky library is typically created by visually scrutinizing daily sky videos and selecting appropriate clear sky periods. This practice takes a significant amount of time and manual intervention can result in human errors. To avoid this, an automated CSL algorithm (ACSL) was developed which filters each image for clear sky features including maximum green pixel brightness, average RBR, and red channel difference by pixel with respect to the previous image. The root mean square difference (RMSD) between the image RBR of the manually created CSL and the ACSL for November and April 2013 at UC San Diego were observed to be less than 6% over the full range of solar zenith angles. The ACSL was found to be more representative of clear conditions than its manual counterpart.

The proliferation of distributed generation on distribution feeders triggers a large number of integration and planning studies. Further, the complexity of distribution feeder models, short simulation time steps, and long simulation horizons rapidly render studies computational burdensome. To mend this issue, we propose a methodology for reducing the number of nodes, loads, generators, line, and transformers of p -phase distribution feeders with unbalanced loads and generation, non-symmetric wire impedance, mutual coupling, shunt capacitance, and changes in voltage and phase. The methodology is derived on a constant power load assumption and employs a Gaussian elimination inversion technique to design the reduced feeder. Compared to previous work by the authors, the inversion reduction takes half the time and voltage errors after reduction are reduced by an order of magnitude. Using a snapshot simulation the reduction is tested on six additional publicly available feeders with a maximum voltage error 0.0075 p.u. regardless of feeder size or complexity, and typical errors on the order of $1\times 10^{-4}$ p.u. For a day long quasi-static time series simulation on the UCSD A feeder, errors are shown to increase with changes in loading when a large number of buses removed, but shows less variation for less than 85% of buses removed.

We characterize the irradiance enhancement events that occur when coastal stratocumulus clouds dissipate, caused by the breakup of the cloud layer into smaller cloud elements. The analysis includes 91 days in 2016 and 2017 that presented transitions from stratocumulus to clear skies in Southern California, using solar irradiance measurements and a clear sky model to describe the enhancement events. We find that a breakup process that starts later in the day lasts longer and is linked to stronger enhancement, as well as stronger down-ramps. Strong enhancement events are also linked to higher wind speeds during the breakup and lower solar zenith angle. The potential benefit of an irradiance enhancement forecast is assessed by evaluating a battery ramp-rate control system. Compared to a forecast that does not capture the solar variability, a good forecast would allow to use a smaller battery and to cycle it less, extending its lifetime.Presented at the World Solar Congress, Nov. 6, 2019, Santiago, Chile

Open-source, high resolution power consumption data are scarce. We compiled, quality controlled, and released publicly a comprehensive power dataset of parts of the University of California, San Diego microgrid. The advanced microgrid contains several distributed energy resources (DERs), such as solar power plants, electric vehicles, buildings, a combined heat and power gas-fired power plant, and electric and thermal storage. Most datasets contain 15-min averages of real and reactive power from 1 January, 2015 until 29 February, 2020. We also include Python codes to fill missing data and flag and replace potentially erroneous data. The extensive dataset of conventional and new DERs is designed to accelerate research and development work in the area of sustainable microgrids.

A camera model and associated automated calibration procedure for stationary daytime sky imaging cameras is presented. The specific modeling and calibration needs are motivated by remotely deployed cameras used to forecast solar power production where cameras point skyward and use 180° fisheye lenses. Sun position in the sky and on the image plane provides a simple and automated approach to calibration; special equipment or calibration patterns are not required. Sun position in the sky is modeled using a solar position algorithm (requiring latitude, longitude, altitude and time as inputs). Sun position on the image plane is detected using a simple image processing algorithm. The performance evaluation focuses on the calibration of a camera employing a fisheye lens with an equisolid angle projection, but the camera model is general enough to treat most fixed focal length, central, dioptric camera systems with a photo objective lens. Calibration errors scale with the noise level of the sun position measurement in the image plane, but the calibration is robust across a large range of noise in the sun position. Calibration performance on clear days ranged from 0.94 to 1.24 pixel root mean square error.

The impact of atmospheric liquid water content at model initialization in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is explored through the application of two preprocessing schemes. The first scheme, the Well-mixed Preprocessor (WEMPP), was designed and developed based on a well-mixed boundary layer to provide an initial guess at liquid water content when initializing with data from the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model, as liquid water content is not present in NAM output. The second scheme was adapted from a satellite Cloud Data Assimilation (CLDDA) package intended to make the initial model cloud field consistent with observations, using input data from the CIMSS GOES sounder cloud product. Preprocessed simulations were compared against baseline WRF simulations initialized with NAM and the Rapid Refresh (RAP) model (which contains liquid water output), as well as the raw parent model outputs. These intra-day forecasts were validated against both 5-min and 10-min averaged ground station and 30-min (hourly averaged) satellite irradiance observations over the course of a month. Due to their extensive spatial coverage, optical thickness, and reflectivity, stratocumulus (Sc) clouds are responsible for much of the variability in available solar resource at the surface in coastal California, where most rooftop photovoltaic systems are located. Currently, the trend of numerical weather prediction models is to underpredict both the presence and thickness of Sc. Therefore, the validation is conducted for a summer month in southern California, when Sc are most prevalent. Ground station validation showed average improvements by WEMPP in predicting surface irradiance over the baseline NAM (RAP) WRF initializations of 33% (−3%) MBE and 16% (9%) MAE, and by CLDDA of 47% (18%) MBE and 26% (20%) MAE. Additionally, simulations preprocessed by CLDDA were consistently able to outperform 24-h persistence forecast at 3 out of 4 ground stations. Validation against SolarAnywhere® satellite irradiance observations showed that the combination of both preprocessors provided the most improvement in the prediction of Sc spatial coverage, thickness, and lifetime in coastal regions where marine layer stratocumulus is most frequently observed, but cloud cover over the ocean was overestimated by all preprocessors.

The breakup of stratocumulus clouds over coastal land areas is studied using a combination of large-eddy simulations (LESs) and mixed-layer models (MLMs) with a focus on mechanisms regulating the timing of the breakup. In contrast with stratocumulus over ocean, strong sensible heat flux over land prevents the cloud layer from decoupling during day. As the cloud thins during day, turbulence generated by surface flux becomes larger than turbulence generated by longwave cooling across the cloud layer. To capture this shift in turbulence generation in the MLM, an existing entrainment parameterization is extended. The MLM is able to mimic cloud evolution for a variety of Bowen ratios, but only after this modification of the entrainment parameterization. Cloud lifetime depends on a combination of the cloud-top entrainment flux, the Bowen ratio of the surface, and the strength of advection of cool ocean air by the sea breeze. For dry land surface conditions, the authors’ MLM suggests a breakup time a few hours after sunrise. For relatively wet land surface conditions, the cloud layer briefly breaks into partly cloudy conditions during midday, and the stratocumulus cloud reforms in the evening.

Recently, researchers have begun to study hybrid approaches to Microgrid techno-economic planning, where a reduced model optimizes the DER selection and sizing is combined with a full model that optimizes operation and dispatch. Though providing significant computation time savings, these hybrid models are susceptible to infeasibilities, when the size of the DER is insufficient to meet the energy balance in the full model during macrogrid outages. In this work, a novel hybrid optimization framework is introduced, specifically designed for resilience to macrogrid outages. The framework solves the same optimization problem twice, where the second solution using full data is informed by the first solution using representative data to size and select DER. This framework includes a novel constraint on the state of charge for storage devices, which allows the representation of multiple repeated days of grid outage, despite a single 24-h profile being optimized in the representative model. Multiple approaches to the hybrid optimization are compared in terms of their computation time, optimality, and robustness against infeasibilities. Through a case study on three real Microgrid designs, we show that allowing optimizing the DER sizing in both stages of the hybrid design, dubbed minimum investment optimization (MIO), provides the greatest degree of optimality, guarantees robustness, and provides significant time savings over the benchmark optimization.

Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) optimization algorithms provide accurate and clear solutions for Microgrid and Distributed Energy Resources projects. Full-scale optimization approaches optimize all time-steps of data sets (e.g., 8760 time-step and higher resolutions), incurring extreme and unpredictable run-times, often prohibiting such approaches for effective Microgrid designs. To reduce run-times down-sampling approaches exist. Given that the literature evaluates the full-scale and down-sampling approaches only for limited numbers of case studies, there is a lack of a more comprehensive study involving multiple Microgrids. This paper closes this gap by comparing results and run-times of a full-scale 8760 h time-series MILP to a peak preserving day-type MILP for 13 real Microgrid projects. The day-type approach reduces the computational time between 85% and almost 100% (from 2 h computational time to less than 1 min). At the same time the day-type approach keeps the objective function (OF) differences below 1.5% for 77% of the Microgrids. The other cases show OF differences between 6% and 13%, which can be reduced to 1.5% or less by applying a two-stage hybrid approach that designs the Microgrid based on down-sampled data and then performs a full-scale dispatch algorithm. This two stage approach results in 20–99% run-time savings.

The irradiance incident on photovoltaic (PV) generators can considerably exceed the expected clear sky irradiance. Due to this phenomenon, called cloud enhancement (CE), the maximum power of the PV generator can exceed the rated power of the inverter connecting the generator to the grid. CE event characteristics and the effects of CE on the electrical operation of PV generators were studied based on measured irradiances and cloud edge velocities. Over eleven months in San Diego, California, the highest measured peak irradiance was 1466 W/m2. In addition, the highest simulated average irradiances for up to 1 MW generators were over 1400 W/m2. The largest lengths for CE events exceeding 1000 W/m2 were multiple kilometers. These results indicate that even large utility-scale PV power plants can be affected significantly by CE events. Moreover, the operation of three PV plants was simulated during around 2400 measured CE events with a detailed spatiotemporal model. The effects of inverter sizing on the operation of the plants were also studied, and the negative impacts of CE on the operation of PV systems were shown to increase with the increasing DC/AC ratio. During the CE events, the energy losses due to power curtailment were from 5% to 50% of the available energy production. While CE affects the operation of the PV plants, these effects were small in terms of aggregate energy since CE events that most strongly impact PV system operation are very rare, meaning that CE does not cause major problems for the operation of PV systems. publishedVersion

Accurate information on the distribution of the surface energy balance components in arid riparian areas is needed for sustainable management of water resources as well as for a better understanding of water and heat exchange processes between the land surface and the atmosphere. Since the spatial and temporal distributions of these fluxes over large areas are difficult to determine from ground measurements alone, their prediction from remote sensing data is very attractive as it enables large area coverage and a high repetition rate. In this study the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) was used to estimate all the energy balance components in the arid riparian areas of the Middle Rio Grande Basin (New Mexico), San Pedro Basin (Arizona), and Owens Valley (California). We compare instantaneous and daily SEBAL fluxes derived from Landsat TM images to surface-based measurements with eddy covariance flux towers. This study presents evidence that SEBAL yields reliable estimates for actual evapotranspiration rates in riparian areas of the southwestern United States. The great strength of the SEBAL method is its internal calibration procedure that eliminates most of the bias in latent heat flux at the expense of increased bias in sensible heat flux.

Integration of solar energy forecasts into the electric network is becoming essential because of the continually increasing penetration level of solar energy. Three-dimensional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models predict the weather based on the current weather conditions (called initialization) and simulate the ensuing atmospheric processes. The accuracy of forecasts therefore depends, in part, on the accuracy of the model initializations. Data assimilation is recognized as the most widely used technique to improve the initialization into NWP models. In this study, meteorological observations from the surface and upper-air in-situ networks over the southern California coast are assimilated into the advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using a three dimensional variational data assimilation technique (3DVAR). A single observation test was conducted to tune-up the length scale and variance scale along with the regional domain-dependent background error statistics. A customized version of 3DVAR data assimilation was deployed with two sets of cyclic data assimilation with 6-h and 1-h assimilation windows along with the cold-start mode. The cyclic data assimilation experiments consistently outperformed the cold-start data assimilation and WRF for intra-day Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and Clear Sky Index (CSI) forecast. Hourly cyclic assimilation showed the highest forecast skill score against ground measurements and satellite measurements. Even at the coastal stations with more challenging meteorological conditions, the hourly cyclic assimilation consistently outperformed the 24-h persistence forecast. The average (mean of four case studies) hourly cyclic data assimilation showed the highest forecast skill score in GHI and CSI intra-day forecast with reference to 24-h persistence forecast up to 39.4% and 40.7% respectively at the coastal stations. The spatial distributions of GHI biases estimated against SolarAnywhere satellite measurements showed that the hourly cyclic assimilation consistently improved the stratocumulus cloud coverage, thickness, and life time over the coastal region, but biases are still present further inland.

Quasi-static time-series simulations (QSTS) of distribution feeders are a critical element of distributed solar PV integration studies. QSTS are typically carried out through computer simulation tools, such as OpenDSS. Since a typical feeder contains thousands of buses, for long investigation periods or at fine time scales such simulations are computationally costly. Simulation times are reduced in this paper through a reduction of the number of buses in the model. The feeder reduction algorithm considers p -phase distribution feeders with unbalanced loads and generation, unbalanced wire impedance, and mutual coupling, while preserving the spatial variation of load and generation. An extensive Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was performed on a real feeder from a California utility. All bus voltage differences are found to be less than 1.13% with a root mean square error of 0.21%. Simulation time savings were up to 96% when only one bus is selected to remain in the model. Example applications of the proposed algorithm are interconnection studies of utility-scale photovoltaic system to the distribution grid, siting analyses of other distributed energy resources and dynamic behavior of devices in large systems, such as smart inverters on distribution grids.

A method for retrieving cloud optical depth (τc) using a UCSD developed ground-based sky imager (USI) is presented. The radiance red–blue ratio (RRBR) method is motivated from the analysis of simulated images of various τc produced by a radiative transfer model (RTM). From these images the basic parameters affecting the radiance and red–blue ratio (RBR) of a pixel are identified as the solar zenith angle (θ0), τc, solar pixel angle/scattering angle (ϑs), and pixel zenith angle/view angle (ϑz). The effects of these parameters are described and the functions for radiance, Iλτc, θ0, ϑs, ϑz, and RBRτc, θ0, ϑs, ϑz are retrieved from the RTM results. RBR, which is commonly used for cloud detection in sky images, provides non-unique solutions for τc, where RBR increases with τc up to about τc = 1 (depending on other parameters) and then decreases. Therefore, the RRBR algorithm uses the measured Iλmeasϑs, ϑz, in addition to RBRmeasϑs, ϑz, to obtain a unique solution for τc. The RRBR method is applied to images of liquid water clouds taken by a USI at the Oklahoma Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program site over the course of 220 days and compared against measurements from a microwave radiometer (MWR) and output from the Min et al. (2003) method for overcast skies. τc values ranged from 0 to 80 with values over 80, being capped and registered as 80. A τc RMSE of 2.5 between the Min et al. (2003) method and the USI are observed. The MWR and USI have an RMSE of 2.2, which is well within the uncertainty of the MWR. The procedure developed here provides a foundation to test and develop other cloud detection algorithms.