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Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most prevalent joint disease and is one of the major causes of disability in the world. There has been an increase in the incidence of OA, which is associated with an aging population, sedentary lifestyle, and reduced physical activity. Due to the complex OA pathogenesis, there are limited diagnostic tools. OA is a degenerative joint disorder with a recognized inflammatory component, usually described as abnormal expression of inflammatory factors. For instance, interleukin 6 (IL‐6) has been shown to be upregulated in serum and synovial fluid among patients with OA. Most of the inflammatory factors have been associated with the expression of long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs). However, the role of the novel lncRNA Fer-1-like protein 4 (FER1L4) in OA is yet to be determined. Here, we interrogated the expression profile of FER1L4 in patients with OA to define its potential application as a diagnostic marker. We collected synovial fluid and blood samples from both OA cases and normal controls. Using qRT-PCR, we evaluated the expression of FER1L4 in plasma and synovial fluid. On the other hand, the expression of IL-6 in plasma and synovial fluid was assessed using ELISA. Besides, the effect of age, gender or disease stage in the expression of the FER1L4 in plasma was also estimated. Moreover, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to determine the impact of FER1L4 in OA cases compared with the normal controls. In addition, we analyzed the correlation between FER1L4 and IL-6 through Pearson correlation analysis. Also, IL-6 expression in overexpressed FER1L4 samples was detected in chondrocytes through western blot analysis, while FER1L4 expression following endogenous IL-6 exposure was detected by qRT-PCR. Our data showed that whereas lncRNA FER1L4 is downregulated in OA patients, IL‐6 is upregulated. The plasma FER1L4 levels among the OA cases were suppressed with disease progression and old age, and the down-regulation could efficiently discriminate OA patients from normal subjects. In addition, upregulation of FER1L4 inhibited IL‐6 expression in human chondrocyte cells, and treatment with different concentrations of exogenous IL‐6 did not affect the expression of FER1L4. Taken together, our data demonstrates that FER1L4 could efficiently identify OA cases from normal subjects, and can also modulate the expression of IL‐6 in human chondrocytes.

The dynamic origin of the interannual variability of West China autumn rainfall (WCAR), a special weather/climate phenomenon over western-central China in September and October, was investigated via observational diagnosis and numerical simulations. Here we found that the interannual variability of WCAR is closely related to the local horizontal trough, which is passively induced by two lower-level anticyclonic (high pressure) anomalies over East Asia. The anticyclonic anomaly over the south is a Gill-type response to the central and eastern Pacific diabatic cooling, while that over the north is part of the mid- to high-latitude barotropic Rossby wave train, which could be induced by either the thermal forcing of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) cooling or that of the subtropical northern Atlantic Ocean SST warming. The quasi-barotropic high pressure anomaly over East Asia acts as an “invisible mountain” that steers the low-level anomalous southwesterly into a southeasterly and hinders the water vapor going farther to the north, leading to enhanced WCAR. However, the real mountain ranges in the region (the Qinglin and Ba Mountains) have no essential impact on the formation and interannual variability of WCAR.

The regional transport of air pollutants, controlled by emission sources and meteorological factors, results in a complex source–receptor relationship of air pollution change. Wuhan, a metropolis in the Yangtze River middle basin (YRMB) of central China, experienced heavy air pollution characterized by hourly PM2.5 concentrations reaching 471.1 µg m−3 in January 2016. To investigate the regional transport of PM2.5 over central eastern China (CEC) and the meteorological impact on wintertime air pollution in the YRMB area, observed meteorological and other relevant environmental data from January 2016 were analyzed. Our analysis presented noteworthy cases of heavy PM2.5 pollution in the YRMB area with unique “non-stagnant” meteorological conditions of strong northerly winds, no temperature inversion, and additional unstable structures in the atmospheric boundary layer. This unique set of conditions differed from the stagnant meteorological conditions characterized by near-surface weak winds, air temperature inversion, and stable structure in the boundary layer that are typically observed in heavy air pollution over most regions in China. The regional transport of PM2.5 over CEC aggravated PM2.5 levels, thus creating heavy air pollution in the YRMB area. This demonstrates a source–receptor relationship between the originating air pollution regions in CEC and the receiving YRMB region. Furthermore, a backward trajectory simulation using a Flexible Particle dispersion (FLEXPART) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to integrate the air pollutant emission inventory over China was used to explore the patterns of regional transport of PM2.5 governed by the strong northerly winds in the cold air activity of the East Asian winter monsoon season. It was estimated that the regional transport of PM2.5 from non-local air pollutant emissions contributes more than 65 % of the PM2.5 concentrations to the heavy air pollution in the YRMB region during the study period, revealing the importance of the regional transport of air pollutants over China as a causative factor of heavy air pollution over the YRMB area.

This study explored the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) on the interannual variations in wintertime haze days (WHDs) in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region (WHDPRD) of China. Analyses unravel that SST anomalies in the adjoining area of the northern Indian and Pacific sector (the NIP region) can drive the interannual variations in the frequency of wintertime haze over the PRD region, which is deemed a salient oceanic driver. The SST anomalies have a stable and significant anticorrelation with the interannual component of the WHDPRD. This anticorrelation is highest in the concurrent winter and thus exerts a strong influence on the variability of localized WHDs. Further observational and simulation results suggest that the cold SST anomalies in the NIP region can induce a large-scale east–west dipole pattern by triggering diabatic cooling to the northwest. This dipole resembles the pattern tied to a higher WHDPRD, with an anticyclonic anomaly centered over the Indo-China Peninsula and a cyclonic anomaly centered over the western North Pacific. Under such circumstances, the PRD region is dominated by consistent northerly wind anomalies, facilitating the formation of two crucial processes responsible for a higher WHDPRD: the northward transportation of aerosols and a decrease in local wet deposition.

Analogous to the circumstances in wintertime, the increasing severity of autumnal haze pollution over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region may also lead to impairment of the socioeconomic development and human health in this region. Despite man-made aerosol emissions, the interannual variability of autumnal (September–October–November) haze days (AHDs) in the BTH region (AHDBTH) is apparently tied to the global and regional meteorological anomalies. The present study suggests that an above-normal AHDBTH is closely associated with the simultaneous sea surface temperature (SST) warming in two regions (over the North Atlantic subtropical sector, R1, and over the western North Pacific sector, R2). When the autumnal SST warming in both R1 and R2 is significant, the likelihood of a higher AHDBTH is greatly enhanced. Observational and simulation evidence demonstrated how remote SST anomalies over R1 and R2 influence variation of AHDBTH via two different pathways. Firstly, SST warming in R1 can induce a downstream midlatitudinal Rossby wave train, leading to a barotropic high-pressure and subsidence anomaly over the BTH region. Secondly, SST warming in R2 can also result in air subsidence over the BTH region through an anomalous local meridional cell. Through these two distinct pathways, localized meteorological circumstances conducive to a higher AHDBTH (i.e., repressed planetary boundary layer, weak southerly airflow, and warm and moist conditions) can be established.

Regional transport of air pollutants controlled by both emission sources and meteorological factors results in a complex source-receptor relationship of air pollution change. Wuhan, a metropolis in the Yangtze River Middle Basin (YRMB) of central China experienced heavy air pollution characterized by excessive PM2.5 concentrations reaching 471.1 μg m−3 in January 2016. In order to investigate the regional transport of PM2.5 over China and the meteorological impact on wintertime air pollution in the YRMB area, observational meteorological and other relevant environmental data from January 2016 were analyzed. Our analysis presented the noteworthy cases of heavy PM2.5 pollution in the YRMB area with the unique “non-stagnant” meteorological conditions of strong northerly winds, no temperature inversion and additional unstable structures in the atmospheric boundary layer. This unique set of conditions differed from the stagnant meteorological conditions characterized by near-surface weak winds, air temperature inversion, and stable structure in the boundary layer observed in heavy air pollution over most regions in China. The regional transport of PM2.5 over central-eastern China aggravated PM2.5 levels present in the YRMB area, thus demonstrating the source-receptor relationship between the originating air pollution regions in central-eastern China and the receiving YRMB regions. Furthermore, a backward trajectory simulation using FLEXPART-WRF to integrate the air pollutant emission inventory over China was used to explore the patterns of regional transport of PM2.5 governed by the strong northerly winds in the cold air activity of the East Asian winter monsoon over central-eastern China, which contributes markedly to the heavy PM2.5 pollution in the YRMB area. It was estimated that the regional transport of PM2.5 of non-local air pollutant emissions could contribute more than 65 % of the PM2.5 concentrations to the heavy air pollution in the YRMB region during the study period, revealing the importance of the regional transport of air pollutants over central-eastern China in the formation of heavy air pollution over the YRMB region.

The impact of surface sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau (SHTP) on the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) with and without air–sea interaction was investigated in this study. Data analysis indicated that SHTP acts as a relatively independent factor in modulating the WPSH anomaly compared with ENSO events. Stronger spring SHTP is usually followed by an enhanced and westward extension of the WPSH in summer, and vice versa. Numerical experiments using both an AGCM and a CGCM confirmed that SHTP influences the large-scale circulation anomaly over the Pacific, which features a barotropic anticyclonic response over the northwestern Pacific and a cyclonic response to the south. Owing to different background circulation in spring and summer, such a response facilitates a subdued WPSH in spring but an enhanced WPSH in summer. Moreover, the CGCM results showed that the equatorial low-level westerly at the south edge of the cyclonic anomaly brings about a warm SST anomaly (SSTA) in the equatorial central Pacific via surface warm advection. Subsequently, an atmospheric Rossby wave is stimulated to the northwest of the warm SSTA, which in turn enhances the atmospheric dipole anomalies over the western Pacific. Therefore, the air–sea feedbacks involved tend to reinforce the effect of SHTP on the WPSH anomaly, and the role of SHTP on general circulation needs to be considered in a land–air–sea interaction framework.

Analogous to the circumstances in wintertime, the increasing severity of autumnal haze pollution over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region may also lead to impairment of the socioeconomic development and human health in this region. Despite manmade aerosol emissions, the interannual variability of autumnal (September–October–November) haze days (AHD) in the BTH region (AHDBTH) is apparently tied to the global and regional meteorological anomalies. The present study suggests that an above-normal AHDBTH is closely associated with the simultaneous sea surface temperature (SST) warming in two regions [over the North Atlantic subtropical sector (R1) and over the western North Pacific sector (R2)]. When the autumnal SST warming in R1 and R2 are both remarkably significant, the joint impacts can greatly enhance the likelihood of a higher AHDBTH. Observational and simulation evidence suggests that SST anomalies can affect the variation in AHDBTH via two different pathways. Firstly, SST warming in R1 can induce a downstream mid-latitudinal Rossby wave train, leading to a barotropic high-pressure and subsidence anomaly over the BTH region. Secondly, SST warming in R2 can also result in air subsidence over the BTH region through an anomalous local meridional cell. Through these two distinct pathways, localized meteorological circumstances conducive to a higher AHDBTH (i.e., repressed planetary boundary layer, weak southerly airflow, and warm and moist conditions) can be established.

The East Asian subtropical summer monsoon (EASSM) is one component of the East Asian summer monsoon system, and its evolution determines the weather and climate over East China. In the present paper, we firstly demonstrate the formation and advancement of the EASSM rainbelt and its associated circulation and precipitation patterns through reviewing recent studies and our own analysis based on JRA-55 (Japanese 55-yr Reanalysis) data and CMAP (CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation), GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project), and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) precipitation data. The results show that the rainy season of the EASSM starts over the region to the south of the Yangtze River in early April, with the establishment of strong southerly wind in situ. The EASSM rainfall, which is composed of dominant convective and minor stratiform precipitation, is always accompanied by a frontal system and separated from the tropical summer monsoon system. It moves northward following the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon. Moreover, the role of the land–sea thermal contrast in the formation and maintenance of the EASSM is illustrated, including in particular the effect of the seasonal transition of the zonal land–sea thermal contrast and the influences from the Tibetan Plateau and midlatitudes. In addition, we reveal a possible reason for the subtropical climate difference between East Asia and East America. Finally, the multi-scale variability of the EASSM and its influential factors are summarized to uncover possible reasons for the intraseasonal, interannual, and interdecadal variability of the EASSM and their importance in climate prediction.

Air quality change is generally driven by two factors: pollutant emissions and meteorology, which are difficult to distinguish via observations. To identify the contribution of meteorological factor to air quality change, an aerosol simulation from 1995 to 2004 with the global air quality model GEM-AQ/EC was designed without year-to-year changes in the anthropogenic aerosol (including sulfate and organic and black carbon) emissions over the 10-year span. To assess the impact of interannual variations of East Asian monsoon (EAM) on air quality change in China, this modeling study focused on the region of central-eastern China (CEC), a typical East Asian monsoon (EAM) region with high anthropogenic aerosol emissions. The simulation analysis showed that the interannual variability in surface aerosols over CEC was driven by fluctuation in meteorological factors associated with EAM changes. Large amplitudes of interannual variability in surface aerosol concentrations reaching 20–30% relative to the 10-year averages were found over southern CEC in summer and over northern CEC in winter. The weakened near-surface winds of EAMs in both summer and winter were significantly correlated with aerosol increases over most areas of CEC. The summer and winter monsoon changes enhance the surface aerosol concentrations with increasing trend rates exceeding 30% and 40% over the southern and northern CEC region, respectively, during the 10 years. The composite analyses of aerosol concentrations in weak and strong monsoon years revealed that positive anomalies in surface aerosol concentrations during weak summer monsoon years were centered over the vast CEC region from the North China Plain to the Sichuan Basin, and the anomaly pattern with “northern higher” and “southern lower” surface aerosol levels was distributed over CEC in weak winter monsoon years. Aerosol washout by summer monsoon rainfall exerted an impact on CEC aerosol distribution in summer; aerosol dry depositions in connection with atmospheric boundary layer conditions resulted in wintertime aerosol variations over CEC. Climate change with regard to EAMs could modulate the interannual variations in aerosols and air quality over CEC by changing near-surface winds, precipitation and atmospheric boundary layer.

Vehicle emissions are a major source of urban air pollution. In recent decade, the Chinese government has introduced a range of policies to reduce vehicle emissions. In order to understand the chemical characteristics of PM2.5 from on-road vehicle emissions in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region and to evaluate the effectiveness of control policies on vehicle emissions, the emission factors of PM2.5 mass, elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC), water-soluble inorganic ions (WSII), metal elements, organic compounds and stable carbon isotopic composition were measured in the Zhujiang tunnel of Guangzhou, in the PRD region of China in 2013. Emission factors of PM2.5 mass, OC, EC and WSOC were 92.4, 16.7, 16.4 and 1.31 mg vehicle−1 km−1 respectively. Emission factors of WSII were 0.016 (F-) ~ 4.17 (Cl−) mg vehicle−1 km−1, contributing about 9.8% to the PM2.5 emissions. The sum of 27 measured metal elements accounted for 15.2% of PM2.5 emissions. Fe was the most abundant metal element, with an emission factor of 3.91 mg vehicle−1 km−1. Emission factors of organic compounds including n-alkanes, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, hopanes and steranes were 91.9, 5.02, 32.0 and 7.59 μg vehicle−1 km−1, respectively. Stable carbon isotopic composition δ13C value was −25.0‰ on average. An isotopic fractionation of 3.2‰ was found during fuel combustion. Compared to a previous study in Zhujiang tunnel in 2004, emission factors of PM2.5mass, EC, OC, WSII except Cl- and organic compounds decreased by 16.0 ~ 93.4%, which could be attributed to emission control policy from 2004 to 2013. However, emission factors of most of the metal elements increased significantly, which could be partially attributed to the changes in motor oil additives and vehicle conditions. There are no mandatory national standards to limit metal content from vehicle emissions, which should be a concern of the government. A snapshot of the 2013 characteristic emissions of PM2.5 and its constituents from the on-road vehicular fleet in the PRD region retrieved from our study would be helpful for the assessment of past and future implementations of vehicle emission control policy.

Using the daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), the pentad Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), and the 6-h Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dataset from 1979 to 2010, a composite analysis along with space–time wave filtering is performed to examine the linkage between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the onset of the East Asian subtropical summer monsoon (EASSM) (over 20°–30°N, 110°–120°E). The onset of the EASSM is shown to be best characterized by the reversal of the mean meridional wind shear related to the rapid reestablishment of the South Asian high (SAH) over the southern Indochinese Peninsula in the upper troposphere. The mean date of EASMM onset is near the end of April, which is about a month earlier than the typical onset of the East Asian summer monsoon. Further analysis indicates that the onset of the EASSM and the reestablishment of SAH are often associated with the arrival of the wet phase of the tropical MJO over the central and eastern Indian Ocean.

The present work identifies two types of La Nina based on the spatial distribution of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly. In contrast to the eastern Pacific (EP) La Nina event, a new type of La Nina (central Pacific, or CP La Nina) is featured by the SST cooling center over the CP. These two types of La Nina exhibit a fundamental difference in SST anomaly evolution: the EP La Nina shows a westward propagation feature while the CP La Nina exhibits a standing feature over the CP. The two types of La Nina can give rise to a significantly different teleconnection around the globe. As a response to the EP La Nina, the North Atlantic (NA)–Western European (WE) region experiences the atmospheric anomaly resembling a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern accompanied by a weakening Atlantic jet. It leads to a cooler and drier than normal winter over Western Europe. However, the CP La Nina has a roughly opposing impact on the NA–WE climate. A positive NAO-like climate anomaly is observed with a strengthening Atlantic jet, and there appears a warmer and wetter than normal winter over Western Europe. Modeling experiments indicate that the above contrasting atmospheric anomalies are mainly attributed to the different SST cooling patterns for the two types of La Nina. Mixing up their signals would lead to difficulty in seasonal prediction of regional climate. Since the La Nina-related SST anomaly is clearly observed during the developing autumn, the associated winter climate anomalies over Western Europe could be predicted a season in advance.

A multivariate empirical orthogonal function (MV-EOF) analysis for 1979–2010 shows that low-level circulation and rainfall over East Asia experienced a significant decadal shift around the mid-1990s. During boreal spring (March–May), the first principal component (PC) of the MV-EOF exhibits a marked decadal change around the mid-1990s, while during boreal summer (June–August) the second PC shows a pronounced decadal shift around the same time. It is further noted that the decadal rainfall change over southern China experienced an out-of-phase relationship between boreal spring and summer; that is, from the pre-1994 to the post-1994 period, the rainfall tends to decrease in boreal spring but increase in boreal summer. A mechanism is put forward to explain the out-of-phase decadal rainfall change over southern China between boreal spring and summer. In boreal spring, the composite differences of SST between the latter and former decadal periods indicate a La Niña–like pattern with warming in the western Pacific and cooling in the eastern Pacific. This pattern leads the enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent, which may further induce anomalous subsidence and thus negative rainfall anomalies over southern China through the local Hadley circulation. In boreal summer, dominant decadal SST warming appears in the entire tropical Indian Ocean while the negative SST anomalies in eastern Pacific are much weaker. The warm SST anomaly over the Indian Ocean leads to suppressed convection over the Maritime Continent, which, through the local Hadley cell, favors the strengthening the East Asian monsoon trough and leads to a positive rainfall anomaly over southern China.

The heating sources over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the East Asian plain, and the western North Pacific (WNP) form a terraced thermal contrast in the west-east direction. Over East Asia and the WNP, this zonal thermal contrast contributes as high as 45 % to the seasonal variance based on the EOF analysis and exerts a significant impact on the seasonal transition of the East Asian climate through the enhancement of the year-round southerly to the southeast of the TP in late March and early April. This effect is investigated in this study using a high-resolution regional atmospheric model by doubling the surface sensible heat flux, respectively, over the TP, the East Asian plain, and the WNP in three sensitivity experiments. Comparisons among the experiments reveal that doubling the surface sensible heat flux over the WNP has little upstream response over East Asia. The increased zonal thermal contrast between the TP and the East Asian plain due to doubled heat flux over the TP would induce anomalous northerly over the region with year-round southerly to the southeast of the TP and weaken its seasonal enhancement. Doubling the surface sensible heat flux over the East Asian plain decreases the zonal thermal contrast and leads to southerly anomaly over the region with year-round southerly to the southeast of the TP and South China, which is favorable for the enhancement of the year-round southerly and its eastward extension.

The contrast between the eastern and central Pacific (EP- and CP-) El Nino is observed in the different responses of zonal and vertical circulation in the tropics. To measure the different responses of the atmospheric circulation to the two types of El Nino, an eastern and a central Pacific southern oscillation index (EP- and CP-SOI) are defined based on the air-sea coupled relationship between eddy sea level pressure and sea surface temperature. Analyses suggest that while the EP-SOI exhibits variability on an interannual (2–7-yr) time scale, decadal (10–15-yr) variations in the CP-SOI are more dominant; both are strongly coupled with their respective EP- and CP-El Nino patterns. Composite analysis suggests that, during EP-ENSO, the Walker circulation exhibits a dipole structure in the lower-level (850 hPa) and upper-level (200 hPa) velocity potential anomalies and exhibits a signal cell over the Pacific. In the case of CP-ENSO, however, the Walker circulation shows a tripole structure and exhibits double cells over the Pacific. In addition, the two types of ENSO events show opposite impacts on global land precipitation in the boreal winter and spring seasons. For example, seasonal precipitation across mainland China exhibits an opposite relationship with the EP- and CP-ENSO during winter and spring, but the rainfall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China shows an opposite relationship during the rest of the seasons. Therefore, the different relationships between rainfall and EP- and CP-ENSO should be carefully considered when predicting seasonal rainfall in the East Asian monsoon regions.

Spatial distributions and seasonal variations of tropospheric water vapor over the Tibetan Plateau and the surrounding areas are explored by means of water vapor products from the high-resolution Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on board the Aqua satellite and the NASA Water Vapor Project (NVAP). Because NVAP has a serious temporal inhomogeneity issue found in previous studies, the AIRS retrieval product is primarily applied here, though similar seasonal variations can be derived in both datasets. Intense horizontal gradients appear along the edges of the plateau in the lower-tropospheric (500–700 hPa) water vapor and columnar precipitable water, in particular over the regions along the southeastern boundary. Rich horizontal structures are also seen within the plateau, but with a weaker gradient. In the mid- to upper troposphere (300–500 hPa), horizontal gradients are relatively weak. It is shown that there is always a deep layer of high water vapor content over the plateau with a peak around 500 hPa, which can extend from the surface to roughly 300 hPa and even to 100 hPa at some locations. This layer of high water vapor content has consistent influence on precipitating processes in the downstream regions such as the valleys of the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers. Estimated vertically integrated water vapor flux and moisture divergence in the two layers (500–700 and 300–500 hPa) further confirm the effect of the Tibetan Plateau on the downstream regions. In particular, the mid- to upper-layer water vapor (300–500 hPa) tends to play an essential role during both the warm and cold seasons, confirmed by the spatial distribution of seasonal-mean precipitation.

During year-to-year El Niño events in recent decades, major sea surface warming has occurred frequently in the central Pacific. This is distinct from the eastern Pacific warming pattern during canonical El Niño events. Accordingly, the central-Pacific El Niño exerts distinct impacts on ecosystems, climate and hurricanes worldwide. The increased frequency of the new type of El Niño presents a challenge not only for the understanding of El Niño dynamics and its change but also for the prediction of El Niño and its global impacts at present and future climate. Previous studies have proposed different indices to represent the two types of El Niño for better understanding, prediction and impact assessment. Here, we find that all popularly used indices for the central-Pacific El Niño show a dominant spectral peak at a decadal period with comparatively weak variance at interannual timescales. Our results suggest that decadal anomalies have an important contribution to the occurrence of the central-Pacific El Niño over past decades. Removing the decadal component leads to a significant reduction in the frequency of the central-Pacific El Niño in observations and in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations of preindustrial, historical and future climate.

We investigate the variations of subsurface ocean temperature (SOT) based on the monthly-Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) during 1958–2007, and discuss the linkage between the variations of SOT and the eastern and central Pacific ENSO (EP and CP-ENSO) events. The wavelet analyses suggest that the variation of the EP and CP-ENSO events shows the 2–7 and the 10–15 years oscillation in the tropical sea surface temperature (SST), and coupled with a zonal dipole mode and a tripole mode in the SOT anomalous field reveled by the singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis. During the mature phase of CP-ENSO, the positive center of SOT at the subsurface layer locates in the west of dateline, which results in the increase of SOT in the Nino4 region and causes the CP-ENSO event. Statistical analysis implies that, the eastern and central Pacific subsurface indices which are defined by the expansion coefficients of the first and third SVD mode for SOT have shown the capabilities in disguising the EP and CP-ENSO events, respectively. In addition, corresponding to the increase of the SOT amplitude on the 10–15 years time scale, we found that the frequency and intensity of CP-El Nino events has exhibited an upward trend after the 1980s, which suggests that the CP-ENSO event has shown an enhanced impact on the global climate in the past decades.

Using station rainfall data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from 1978-2007, we charac- terize the spatial variations of the heavy rainfall (Meiyu) during June-July over the Jiang-Huai basin (JHB, ~28°-34° N and 110°-122° E) in East China and their associated atmospheric circula- tions. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the Meiyu rainfall revealed 2 other sig- nificant modes besides the dominant basin-wide in-phase mode. They include a north-south dipole (out-of-phase) pattern (EOF 2) and a roughly east-west dipole pattern (EOF 3). During the 'south flood and north drought' (SF/ND) phase of EOF 2, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is displaced southward, which prevents the East Asian summer monsoon from reaching as far north as in normal years. A cyclonic anomaly circulation at 850 hPa occurs over Southeast China and an ascending (descending) anomaly motion south (north) of ~30° N is seen over the JHB, which contributes to the excess (lack) of Meiyu rainfall south (north) of ~30° N over the JHB during the SF/ND years. During the opposite phase of this mode, these anomaly circulation pat- terns are roughly reversed. During the 'east wet and west dry' phase of EOF 3, the WPSH is dis- placed eastward, and a cyclonic anomaly circulation centered south of Japan brings more mois- ture from the Yellow and East China Seas into the eastern part of the JHB; while southwesterly vapor fluxes past over the western part of the JHB and converges over North China, leaving the western part of the JHB relatively dry. During the opposite phase, the WPSH is shifted northwest- ward, and the anomaly moisture transports are reversed over the JHB.

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) tends to be intensified in a global-warming scenario, with a weakened linkage with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but how the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) responds is still an open question. This study investigates the responses of the EASM from observations, theoretical, and modeling perspectives. Observational and theoretical evidence demonstrates that, in contrast to the dramatic global-warming trend within the past 50 years, the regional-mean EASM rainfall is basically dominated by considerable interannual-to-decadal fluctuations, concurrent with enhanced precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and over southern Japan and suppressed rainfall amount over the South China and Philippine Seas. From 1958 through 2008, the EASM circulation exhibits a southward shift in its major components (the subtropical westerly jet stream, the western Pacific Ocean subtropical high, the subtropical mei-yu–baiu–changma front, and the tropical monsoon trough). Such a southward shift is very likely or in part due to the meridional asymmetric warming with the most prominent surface warming in the midhigh latitudes (45°–60°N), which induces a weakened meridional thermal contrast over eastern Asia. Another notable feature is the enhanced ENSO–EASM relationship within the past 50 years, which is opposite to the ISM. Fourteen state-of-the-art coupled models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show that the EASM strength does not respond with any pronounced trend to the global-warming “A1B” forcing scenario (with an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 720 ppm) but shows interannual-to-decadal variations in the twenty-first century (2000–99). These results indicate that the primary response of the EASM to a warming climate may be a position change instead of an intensity change, and such position change may lead to spatial coexistence of floods and droughts over eastern Asia as has been observed in the past 50 years.

NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and a 47-year precipitation dataset are utilized to analyze the relationship between an atmospheric heat source (hereafter called 〈 Q1 〉) over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP) and its surrounding area and precipitation in northwest China. Our main conclusions are as follows: (1) The horizontal distribution of 〈 Q1 〉 and its changing trend are dramatic over QXP in the summer. There are three strong centers of 〈 Q1 〉 over the south side of QXP with obvious differences in the amount of yearly precipitation and the number of heat sinks predominate in the arid and semi-arid regions of northwest China (NWC), beside the northern QXP with an obvious higher intensity in years with less precipitation. (2) In the summer, the variation of the heat source’s vertical structure is obviously different between greater and lesser precipitation years in eastern northwest China (ENWC). The narrow heat sink belt forms between the northeast QXP and the southwestern part of Lake Baikal. In July and August of greater precipitation years, the heating center of the eastern QXP stays nearly over 35°N, and at 400 hPa of the eastern QXP, the strong upward motion of the heating center constructs a closed secondary vertical circulation cell over the northeast QXP (40°-46°N), which is propitious to add precipitation over the ENWC. Otherwise, the heating center shifts to the south of 30°N and disappears in July and August of lesser precipitation years, an opposite secondary circulation cell forms over the northeast QXP, which is a disadvantage for precipitation. Meanwhile, the secondary circulation cell in years with more or less precipitation over the ENWC is also related to the heat source over the Lake Baikal. (3) The vertical structure of the heat source over the western QXP has obvious differences between greater and lesser precipitation years in western northwest China in June and July. The strong/weak heat source over the western QXP produces relatively strong/weak ascending motion and correspondingly constructs a secondary circulation cell in lesser/greater precipitation years.

In this study, the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis data from 1979 to 2005 is used to investigate the possible impact of IntraSeasonal Oscillation (ISO) of the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon on the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) double ridges. Three WPSH modes are defined as the 3/6 mode, the 1/2 mode and the dual mode, for the amplitude of the 30–60-day oscillation of SCS summer monsoon which is larger, smaller and comparable to the 10–20-day oscillation, respectively. The results show that there are no double ridges of WPSH present during 3/6 mode, but a weak process can be found during 1/2 mode. However, a powerful double-ridge structure of WPSH is present in several phases of the dual mode during both the 10–20-day oscillation and the 30–60-day oscillation. Then two typical WPSH double ridge cases in 1999, a special year of the dual mode, are chosen to further discuss this interesting phenomenon. Case 1 (24 July–27 July) is much weaker, and in this case the southern ridge disappears after several days, while during case 2 (3 August–11 August), the southern ridge finally replaces the northern ridge. The double ridges are much stronger compared to case 1. The ISO evolution feature is different between case 1 and case 2. The anomalous circulation of 10–20-day oscillation is anticyclonic over the southern ridge during both case 1 and case 2. However, the anomalous circulation of 30–60-day oscillation is cyclonic during case 1 and anticyclonic during case 2. It is this difference that leads to the double ridges being more powerful in case 2 than in case 1. This indicates that the 10–20-day oscillation of the SCS summer monsoon plays a key role in the WPSH double-ridge formation, while the 30–60-day oscillation provides a favorable background for it.

Double ridges in the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) in 1998 are studied as a particular case using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the Black Body Temperature (TBB) data. In contrast to typical single ridge in WPSH, double ridges are found during July in 1998 and associated with the second Meiyu activity in the Yangtze River valley. The second ridge of WPSH is built up in the south of the first one and contributes to the stagnancy of WPSH in the south in middle of July. It is different from the previous view that the stagnancy of WPSH in the south resulted from the sudden southward withdrawal of the original ridge. The characteristics of double ridges including the structure, evolution and possible mechanisms are investigated with the case of 1998. The results show that there are a lot of differences in the large-scale circulation, temperature and humidity between the single ridge and double ridges of the WPSH. The north branch of the double ridges has coherent characteristics with the traditional single ridge, while the south branch is characterized by the tropical systems. There are evidences to support that the formation of the double ridges is associated with the northward movement of equatorial buffer zone and the persistence is related to the evolution of tropical convections. The rainfall pattern in eastern China associated with the double ridges of WPSH is examined using the instrumental records of precipitation in China. Two rain belts shaped as an italic "L"-like pattern in eastern China are found to be related to the double ridges. This study provides new evidence to understand the variability of WPSH and associated East Asian summer monsoon activity on synoptic scales.

This paper reviews briefly advances in recent research on monsoon by Chinese scholars, including primarily: (1) the establishment of various monsoon indices. In particular, the standardized dynamic seasonal variability index of the monsoon can delimit the geographical distribution of global monsoon systems and determine quantitatively the date of abrupt change in circulation. (2) The provision of three driving forces for the generation of monsoon. (3) The revelation of the heating-pump action of the Tibetan Plateau, which strengthens southerlies in the southern and southeastern periphery of the Plateau and results in a strong rainfall center from the northern Bay of Bengal (BOB) to the Plateau itself. (4) Clarification of the initial onset of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) in the BOB east of 90°E, Indochina Peninsula (ICP) and the South China Sea, of which the rapid northward progression of tropical convection in the Sumatra and the rapid westward movement of the South Asia High to the Indochina Peninsula are the earliest signs. (5) The provision of an integrated mechanism for the onset of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), which emphasizes the integrated impact of sensible heat over Indian Peninsula, the warm advection of the Tibetan Plateau and the sensible heat and latent heat over the Indochina Peninsula on the one hand, and the seasonal phase-lock effect of the northward propagation of low frequency oscillation on the other. (6) The revelation of the “planetary-scale moisture transport large-value band” from the Southern Hemisphere through to the Asian monsoon region and into the North Pacific, which is converged by several large-scale moisture transport belts in the Asian-Australian monsoon regions and whose variation influences directly the temporal and spatial distribution of summer rainfall in China. (7) Presenting the features of the seasonal advance of the EASM, the propagation of intraseasonal oscillation, and their relationship with rainfall in China; indicating that the intraseasonal oscillation of the EASM propagates in the form of a wave-train along the coast and behaves as monsoon surge propagating northward. (8) Describing the interannual and interdecadal variation of Asian monsoon, revealing the factors affecting it, and possible mechanisms of the variation of Asian monsoon. An elementary outlook on the existing problems and future direction of monsoon research is also provided.

Due to rapid economic development, China has experienced one of the greatest rates of change in land use/land cover during the last two decades. This change is mainly urban expansion and cultivated land reduction in urban growth regions, both of which play an important role in regional climate change. In this paper, the variation of the urban heat island (UHI) caused by urbanization has been evaluated with an analysis of land use change in China. First, meteorological observation stations were grouped by different land cover types (dry land, paddy field, forest, grassland, water field, urban, rural inhabitable area, industrial and mineral land, and waste land) throughout China. These stations were subdivided into urban and non-urban classes. Then, a new method was proposed to determine the UHI intensity from the difference between the observed and the interpolated air temperature of urban type weather stations. The results indicate that the trends of UHI intensity in different land use change regions are spatially correlated with regional land use and its change pattern. During 1991-2000, the estimated UHI intensity has increased by 0.11 degrees C per decade in the spring and has fluctuated in other seasons throughout China resulting from land use change.

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period of 1957–2001, the climatological seasonal transition features of large-scale vertically integrated moisture transport (VIMT) in the Asian-Australian monsoon region are investigated in this paper. The basic features of the seasonal transition of VIMT from winter to summer are the establishment of the summertime “great moisture river” pattern (named the GMR pattern) and its eastward expansion, associated with a series of climatological events which occurred in some “key periods”, which include the occurrence of the notable southerly VIMT over the Indochina Peninsula in mid March, the activity of the low VIMT vortex around Sri Lanka in late April, and the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon in mid May, among others. However, during the transition from summer to winter, the characteristics are mainly exhibited by the establishment of the easterly VIMT belt located in the tropical area, accompanied by some events occurring in “key periods”. Further analyses disclose a great difference between the Indian and East Asian monsoon regions when viewed from the meridional migration of the westerly VIMT during the seasonal change process, according to which the Asian monsoon region can be easily divided into two parts along the western side of the Indochina Peninsula and it may also denote different formation mechanisms between the two regions.

Based on summarizing previous achievements and using data as long and new as possible, the onset characteristics of Asian summer monsoon and the role of Asian-Australian “land bridge” in the onset of summer monsoon are further discussed. In particular, the earliest onset area of Asian summer monsoon is comparatively analyzed, and the sudden and progressive characteristics of the onset of summer monsoon in different regions are discussed. Furthermore, the relationships among such critical events during the onset of Asian summer monsoon as the splitting of subtropical high belt over the Bay of Bengal (BOB), the initiation of convection over Indo-China Peninsula, the westward advance, reestablishment of South Asian High, and the rapid northward progression of convection originated from Sumatra in early summer are studied. The important impact of the proper collocation of the latent heating over Indo-China Peninsula and the sensible heating over Indian Peninsula on the splitting of the subtropical high belt, the deepening of BOB trough, the activating of Sri Lanka vortex (twin vortexes in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres), and the subsequent onset of South China Sea summer monsoon are emphasized.

A 3-D chemical transport model (OSLO CTM2) is used to investigate the impact of the increase of NO x emission over China. The model is capable to reproduce basically the seasonal variation of surface NO x and ozone over eastern China. NO x emission data and observations reveal that NO x over eastern China increases quite quickly with the economic development of China. Model results indicate that NO x concentration over eastern China increasingly rises with the increase of NO x emission over China, and accelerates to increase in winter. When the NO x emission increases from 1995 to its double, the ratio of NO2/NO x abruptly drops in winter over northern China. Ozone at the surface decreases in winter with the continual enhancement of the NO x level over eastern China, but increases over southern China in summertime. It is noticeable that peak ozone over northern China increases in summer although mean ozone changes little. In summer, ozone increases in the free troposphere dominantly below 500 hPa. Moreover, the increases of total ozone over eastern China are proportional to the increases of NO x emission. In a word, the model results suggest that the relationship between NO x and ozone at the surface would change with NO x increase.

Based on the reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR and other observational data, interannual variability of the Mascarene high (MH) and Australian high (AH) during boreal summer from 1970 to 1999 is examined. It is shown that interannual variability of MH is dominated by the Antarctic oscillation (AAO), and MH tends to be intensified with the development of the circumpolar lows in high southern latitudes. On the other hand, AH is correlated with AAO as well as El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and tends to be intensified when El Nino occurs. Since AH, especially MH, is positively correlated with AAO, composite analysis on the difference between the positive and negative MH is performed to reveal the physical mechanism responsible for the East Asian summer monsoon anomalies associated with AAO. The result shows that, with the intensifi- cation of MH, the Somali jet, and Indian monsoon westerlies, tend to be strengthened. Accordingly, AH and the associated cross-equatorial flow, become stronger whereas the trade wind over the tropical western and middle Pacific become weaker. In association with the above changes, convective activities near the Philippine Sea are largely suppressed, as a consequence, exciting a negative convection anomaly, and a Rossby wave train from East Asia via the North Pacific to the western coast of North America (a negative Pacific-Japan pattern). Corresponding to the negative Pacific-Japan pattern, an anomalous rainfall pattern appears in East Asia. Correlation analysis between AAO and sea level pressure, 500 hPa geopotential height further indicates that AAO is a strong signal influencing the climate anomaly in both hemispheres, including East Asia. Due to the seasonal persistence, AAO and the related MH and AH in boreal spring, may provide some useful information for the East Asian summer monsoon prediction. With the intensification of MH during boreal spring through summer, the Meiyu/Baiu rainfall from the Yangtze River valley to the Japan Islands tends to increase, while less rainfall is found outside of this region. In contrast with MH, the effect of AH on summer rainfall is confined to southern China.