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2. High-resolution population estimation using household survey data and building footprints

Author

Boo, Gianluca, Darin, Edith, Leasure, Douglas R, Dooley, Claire A, Chamberlain, Heather R, Lázár, Attila N, Tschirhart, Kevin, Sinai, Cyrus, Hoff, Nicole A, Fuller, Trevon, Musene, Kamy, Batumbo, Arly, Rimoin, Anne W, and Tatem, Andrew J

Subjects
Statistics - Applications, 62, I.6.5
Abstract

The national census is an essential data source to support decision-making in many areas of public interest. However, this data may become outdated during the intercensal period, which can stretch up to several decades. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model leveraging recent household surveys with probabilistic sampling designs and building footprints to produce up-to-date population estimates. We estimated population totals and age and sex breakdowns with associated uncertainty measures within grid cells of approximately 100m in five provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a country where the last census was completed in 1984. The model exhibited a very good fit, with an R^2 value of 0.79 for out-of-sample predictions of population totals at the microcensus-cluster level and 1.00 for age and sex proportions at the province level. The results confirm the benefits of combining household surveys and building footprints for high-resolution population estimation in countries with outdated censuses., Comment: 27 pages, 6 figures

Published
2021
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4. Sustainable Deltas in the Anthropocene

Author

Nicholls, Robert J., Adger, W. Neil, Hutton, Craig W., Hanson, Susan E., Lázár, Attila N., Vincent, Katharine, Allan, Andrew, Tompkins, Emma L., Arto, Iñaki, Rahman, Md. Munsur, Hazra, Sugata, Codjoe, Samuel Nii Ardey, Nicholls, Robert J., editor, Adger, W. Neil, editor, Hutton, Craig W., editor, and Hanson, Susan E., editor

Published
2020
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5. Choices: Future Trade-Offs and Plausible Pathways

Author

Lázár, Attila N., Hanson, Susan E., Nicholls, Robert J., Allan, Andrew, Hutton, Craig W., Salehin, Mashfiqus, Kebede, Abiy S., Nicholls, Robert J., editor, Adger, W. Neil, editor, Hutton, Craig W., editor, and Hanson, Susan E., editor

Published
2020
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6. Integrative Analysis Applying the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model in South-West Coastal Bangladesh

Author

Lázár, Attila N., Payo, Andres, Adams, Helen, Ahmed, Ali, Allan, Andrew, Akanda, Abdur Razzaque, Amoako Johnson, Fiifi, Barbour, Emily J., Biswas, Sujit Kumar, Caesar, John, Chapman, Alexander, Clarke, Derek, Fernandes, Jose A., Haque, Anisul, Hossain, Mostafa A. R., Hunt, Alistair, Hutton, Craig W., Kay, Susan, Mukhopadhyay, Anirban, Nicholls, Robert J., Saleh, Abul Fazal M., Salehin, Mashfiqus, Szabo, Sylvia, Whitehead, Paul G., Nicholls, Robert J., editor, Hutton, Craig W., editor, Adger, W. Neil, editor, Hanson, Susan E., editor, Rahman, Md. Munsur, editor, and Salehin, Mashfiqus, editor

Published
2018
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9. Land Cover and Land Use Analysis in Coastal Bangladesh

Author

Mukhopadhyay, Anirban, Hornby, Duncan D., Hutton, Craig W., Lázár, Attila N., Amoako Johnson, Fiifi, Ghosh, Tuhin, Nicholls, Robert J., editor, Hutton, Craig W., editor, Adger, W. Neil, editor, Hanson, Susan E., editor, Rahman, Md. Munsur, editor, and Salehin, Mashfiqus, editor

Published
2018
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10. Characterising Associations between Poverty and Ecosystem Services

Author

Adams, Helen, Adger, W. Neil, Ahmad, Sate, Ahmed, Ali, Begum, Dilruba, Chan, Mark, Lázár, Attila N., Matthews, Zoe, Rahman, Mohammed Mofizur, Streatfield, Peter Kim, Nicholls, Robert J., editor, Hutton, Craig W., editor, Adger, W. Neil, editor, Hanson, Susan E., editor, Rahman, Md. Munsur, editor, and Salehin, Mashfiqus, editor

Published
2018
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11. An Integrated Approach Providing Scientific and Policy-Relevant Insights for South-West Bangladesh

Author

Nicholls, Robert J., Hutton, Craig W., Lázár, Attila N., Neil Adger, W., Allan, Andrew, Whitehead, Paul G., Wolf, Judith, Rahman, Md. Munsur, Salehin, Mashfiqus, Hanson, Susan E., Payo, Andres, Nicholls, Robert J., editor, Hutton, Craig W., editor, Adger, W. Neil, editor, Hanson, Susan E., editor, Rahman, Md. Munsur, editor, and Salehin, Mashfiqus, editor

Published
2018
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14. Modelling fixed plant and algal dynamics in rivers: an application to the River Frome

Author

Lazar, Attila N., Wade, A. J., Whitehead, Paul G, and Heppell, C. M.

Abstract

The development of eutrophication in river systems is poorly understood given the complex relationship between fixed plants, algae, hydrodynamics, water chemistry and solar radiation. However there is a pressing need to understand the relationship between the ecological status of\ud rivers and the controlling environmental factors to help the reasoned implementation of the Water Framework Directive and Catchment Sensitive Farming in the UK. This research aims to create a dynamic, process-based, mathematical in-stream model to simulate the growth and competition of different vegetation types (macrophytes, phytoplankton and benthic algae) in rivers. The model,\ud applied to the River Frome (Dorset, UK), captured well the seasonality of simulated vegetation types (suspended algae, macrophytes, epiphytes, sediment biofilm). Macrophyte results showed that local knowledge is important for explaining unusual changes in biomass. Fixed algae simulations indicated the need for the more detailed representation of various herbivorous grazer groups,\ud however this would increase the model complexity, the number of model parameters and the required observation data to better define the model. The model results also highlighted that simulating only phytoplankton is insufficient in river systems, because the majority of the suspended algae have benthic origin in short retention time rivers. Therefore, there is a need for modelling tools that link the benthic and free-floating habitats.

Published
2010

15. Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios.

Author

Fernandes, Jose A., Kay, Susan, Hossain, Mostafa A. R., Ahmed, Munir, Cheung, William W. L., Lazar, Attila N., and Barange, Manuel

Subjects
MARINE fish development, AGRICULTURAL administration, TENUALOSA ilisha, BIOCHEMISTRY, ECONOMIC history
Abstract

The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national gross domestic product and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca. 60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here, we develop and apply tools to project the long-term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high-resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place particular interest on Hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha), which accounts for ca. 11% of total catches, and Bombay duck (Harpadon nehereus), a low price fish that is the second highest catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low-income communities. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce the potential fish production in the Bangladesh exclusive economic zone by ,10%. However, these impacts are larger for the two target species. Under sustainable management practices, we expect Hilsa shad catches to show a minor decline in potential catch by 2030 but a significant (25%) decline by 2060. However, if overexploitation is allowed, catches are projected to fall much further, by almost 95% by 2060, compared with the Business as Usual scenario for the start of the 21st century. For Bombay duck, potential catches by 2060 under sustainable scenarios will produce a decline of ,20% compared with current catches. The results demonstrate that management can mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystem productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2016
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