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La globalització de l'agricultura ha obert noves oportunitats, reptes i una competència més dura a l'Índia. Aquest article explora i avalua diversos factors macro i micro que influeixen en les eleccions de canals de màrqueting fetes pels productors d'hortalisses d'Odisha. S’han recollit respostes de 323 agricultors d'hortalisses i 110 comissionistes i 192 minoristes de cinc districtes d'Odisha. Les dades s’han analitzat mitjançant SPSS per confirmar la fiabilitat, la validesa i la reducció de les dades. AMOS s’ha utilitzat per dissenyar el model d'equació estructural. L'accés al coneixement del mercat té un signe positiu per a les opcions de mercat tant organitzades com no organitzades, que és coherent amb la hipòtesi. Per tant, el valor suggereix que augmentar el coneixement del mercat pot augmentar-ne la participació. La millora de les pràctiques i l'experiència en la qualificació també mostra un augment de la implicació dels mercats organitzats i no organitzats. Tenint en compte aquests reptes de màrqueting, aquest estudi suggereix millorar la participació dels agricultors emergents als mercats d'exportació., The globalization of agriculture has opened new opportunities, challenges and stiffer competition in India. This paper explores and evaluates various macro and micro factors influencing the marketing channel choices made by the vegetable farmers in Odisha. Responses were collected from 323 vegetable farmers and 110 commission agents, and 192 retailers across five districts of Odisha. Data were analyzed using SPSS to confirm reliability, validity and data reduction. AMOS was used to design the structural equation model. Access to market knowledge has a positive sign for both organized and unorganized market choices, which is consistent with the hypothesis. Hence, the value suggests that increasing market knowledge can increase market participation. The improvement in practices and expertise in grading also shows an increase in the involvement of both organized and unorganized markets. Given these marketing challenges, this study suggests improving emerging farmers' participation in the export markets., La globalización de la agricultura ha abierto nuevas oportunidades, desafíos y una competencia más dura en la India. Este documento explora y evalúa varios factores macro y micro que influyen en las elecciones de canales de comercialización realizadas por los agricultores de hortalizas en Odisha. Se recopilaron respuestas de 323 agricultores de vegetales y 110 comisionistas, y 192 minoristas en cinco distritos de Odisha. Los datos se analizaron con SPSS para confirmar la confiabilidad, la validez y la reducción de datos. AMOS se utilizó para diseñar el modelo de ecuación estructural. El acceso al conocimiento del mercado tiene un signo positivo tanto para las elecciones de mercado organizadas como para las no organizadas, lo cual es consistente con la hipótesis. Por lo tanto, el valor sugiere que aumentar el conocimiento del mercado puede aumentar la participación en el mercado. La mejora en las prácticas y la experiencia en la clasificación también muestra un aumento en la participación de los mercados organizados y no organizados. Dados estos desafíos de comercialización, este estudio sugiere mejorar la participación de los agricultores emergentes en los mercados de exportación.

The aim of this study is to determine the macro factors affecting financial inclusion for economies with different income levels around the World. The effect of macro factors on financial inclusion is investigated by panel regression analysis for the period 2010-2018 for high-income, upper-middle-income and lower-middle-income economies through the financial access index, financial usage index and financial inclusion index created. The findings reveal that the increase in GDP per capita and the proportion of individuals using internet positively affect the financial inclusion for high-income economies. In upper-middle income economies, the increase in the proportion of individuals using the internet and the proportion of individuals with mobile subscription increases the financial inclusion. The positive effect of the increase in the ratio of individuals using the internet, the ratio of individuals with mobile subscription, per capita GDP and the population growth rate on the financial inclusion is determined for lower-middle income economies., Bu çalışmanın amacı dünya genelinde farklı gelir seviyelerinde bulunan ekonomiler için finansal tabana yayılmaya etki eden makro faktörleri belirlemektir. Makro faktörlerin finansal tabana yayılma üzerindeki etkisi 2010-2018 dönemi için panel regresyon analizi ile yüksek gelirli, üst-orta gelirli ve alt-orta gelirli ekonomiler için oluşturulan finansal erişim endeksi, finansal kullanım endeksi ve finansal tabana yayılma endeksi aracılığıyla araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular yüksek gelirli ekonomiler için kişi başına GSYİH’deki ve internet kullanan bireylerin oranındaki artışın finansal tabana yayılmayı olumlu etkilediğini göstermiştir. Üst-orta gelirli ekonomilerde internet kullanan bireylerin oranındaki ve mobil aboneliğe sahip olan bireylerin oranındaki artış finansal tabana yayılmayı artırmaktadır. Alt-orta gelirli ekonomiler için internet kullanan bireylerin oranındaki, mobil aboneliğe sahip olan bireylerin oranındaki, kişi başına GSYİH’deki ve nüfus artış hızındaki artışın finansal tabana yayılma üzerindeki olumlu etkisi belirlenmiştir. Enflasyonun üst-orta gelirli ve alt-orta gelirli ekonomilerde finansal tabana yayılmayı olumsuz etkilediği de belirlenmiştir.

This study analyzes the effects of the macroeconomic indicators on the lending interest rates in the leading emerging countries by considering the significance of the interest rates for economic growth since high-level interest rates decrease economic growth and volatile interest rates deteriorate economic stability. In this context, the lending interest rate is considered as the dependent variable; foreign exchange (FX) rates, gross domestic product (GDP), and inflation are included as the independent variables that are the main macroeconomic indicators; annual data from 1990 to 2019 are used, and the panel data analysis is applied. The empirical analysis results reveal that (i) FX rates, GDP, and inflation have a significant effect on the lending interest rates at the panel level; (ii) the significance of these macroeconomic indicators vary at the country level; (iii) GDP is the most influential factor on the lending interest rates at both panel and the country level. The analysis results underline the effects of macroeconomic factors on the lending interest rates. Therefore, countries should apply appropriate policies to lessen the adverse effects of the macroeconomic indicators on the interest rates so that economic growth can be supported by low-level lending interest rates. Hence, emerging countries can benefit from low-level lending interest rates., Bu çalışma, faiz oranlarının ekonomik büyüme açısından önemini göz önünde bulundurarak, önde gelen gelişmekte olan ülkelerde makroekonomik göstergelerin borç verme faiz oranları üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmektedir. Bu kapsamda, borç verme faiz oranı bağımlı değişken olarak kabul edilmekte; temel makroekonomik göstergeler olan bağımsız değişkenler arasında döviz kurları, gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYİH) ve enflasyon yer almakta; 1990'dan 2019'a kadar olan yıllık veriler kullanılmış ve panel veri analizi uygulanmıştır. Ampirik analiz sonuçlarına göre, (i) döviz kurları, GSYİH ve enflasyonun panel düzeyinde borç verme faiz oranları üzerinde önemli bir etkiye sahiptir; (ii) bu makroekonomik göstergelerin önemi ülke düzeyinde farklılık göstermektedir; (iii) GSYİH, hem panel hem de ülke düzeyinde borç verme faiz oranları üzerinde en etkili faktördür. Analiz sonuçları, makroekonomik faktörlerin borç verme faiz oranları üzerindeki etkilerini vurgulamaktadır. Bu nedenle, ekonomik büyümenin düşük seviyeli borç verme faiz oranları ile desteklenebilmesi için, makroekonomik göstergelerin faiz oranları üzerindeki olumsuz etkilerini azaltacak uygun politikaların uygulanması gerekmektedir. Bu nedenle, gelişmekte olan ülkeler düşük seviyeli borç verme faiz oranlarından yararlanabilirler.

Muchas cosas han cambiado en las últimas décadas: las nuevas tecnologías han remodelado sustancialmente los mercados y el comportamiento humano, las amenazas de ataques terroristas y pandemias se han convertido en realidades y el clima político se ha polarizado cada vez más. Estos nuevos desafíos pueden impactar directamente en el consumo. Sin embargo, se sabe poco sobre cómo estos nuevos macro factores pueden afectar las preferencias de los consumidores por las marcas. Esta tesis busca añadir a la literatura de marketing al investigar la influencia de varios macro impulsores importantes en las preferencias de marca del consumidor y, los mecanismos psicológicos que subyacen a esta influencia. El Capítulo 1 explora cómo se configuran las preferencias de marca de los consumidores en el contexto de las nuevas tecnologías. El capítulo se centra en el fenómeno, cada vez más importante, del crowdfunding. En un estudio de campo a gran escala y dos estudios de seguimiento, descubrí que las marcas no semánticas, aquellas que no evocan un significado específico, pueden despertar la curiosidad en los consumidores. Esta mayor curiosidad afecta positivamente los resultados de las campañas de crowdfunding para nuevos productos. El Capítulo 2 investiga cómo las preferencias de marca de los consumidores pueden verse afectadas por eventos que incrementan la mortalidad, como los ataques terroristas o las pandemias. En un estudio de campo que utiliza una metodología de diferencias en diferencias y tres experimentos, muestro que la prominencia de la mortalidad aumenta la tendencia de los consumidores a evitar el cambio. Las marcas emocionantes están estrechamente asociadas con la noción de cambio, y los consumidores tienden a preferir menos las marcas emocionantes cuando la mortalidad es saliente. El Capítulo 3 examina cómo las preferencias de marca de los consumidores pueden verse influenciadas por eventos sociopolíticos, como éxitos o fracasos electorales. En dos estudios de campo a gran escala y tres experimentos, muestro que debido a que las marcas emocionantes reflejan de cerca la ideología política liberal, el éxito electoral del liberalismo puede aumentar las preferencias de los consumidores hacia las marcas emocionantes. Sin embargo, el fracaso electoral del liberalismo tiene el efecto contrario. Las ideas de esta tesis son importantes y arrojan luz sobre lo que actualmente son los conjuntos de impulsores de las preferencias de marca de los consumidores que han sido poco investigados. Además, debido a que, a menudo, los profesionales tienen un control limitado sobre los nuevos macro factores, los hallazgos de esta tesis ofrecen una guía necesaria sobre cómo los especialistas en marketing pueden reconocer, adaptar y aprovechar las macro presiones. In the last few decades, a lot has changed—new technologies have substantively re-shaped markets and human behaviors, the threats of terrorist attacks and deadly pandemics have become realities, and the political climate has grown increasingly polarized. These new challenges can directly impact consumption. However, little is known about how such macro-level factors can affect consumers’ preferences for brands. This thesis seeks to add to the marketing literature by investigating the influence of several important macro-level drivers on consumers’ brand preferences and the psychological mechanisms underlying this influence. Chapter 1 explores how consumers’ brand preferences are shaped in the context of new technologies. The chapter focuses on the increasingly important phenomenon of crowdfunding. In a large-scale field study and two follow-up studies, I find that non-semantic brand names—those that do not evoke a specific meaning—can arouse curiosity in consumers. This heightened curiosity then positively affects the outcomes of crowdfunding campaigns for new products. Chapter 2 investigates how consumers’ brand preferences can be impacted by events that increase mortality salience, such as terrorist attacks or deadly pandemics. In a field study using a difference-in-differences methodology and three experiments, I show that mortality salience increases consumers’ tendency to avoid change. Exciting brands are closely associated with the notion of change, and consumers tend to prefer exciting brands less when mortality is salient. Chapter 3 examines how consumers’ brand preferences can be influenced by sociopolitical events, such as electoral successes or failures. In two large-scale field studies and three experiments, I demonstrate that, because exciting brands closely reflect the liberal political ideology, electoral success for the liberal side can increase consumers’ preferences for exciting brands. Yet, the electoral failure for the liberal side has an opposite effect. The insights from this thesis are consequential, because they shed light on what are currently under-researched sets of drivers of consumers’ brand preferences. In addition, because practitioners typically have limited control over the macro-level factors, the findings from this thesis offer much-needed guidance on how marketers can recognize, adapt to, and take advantage of such large-scale market pressures.

Underlying the goal of diversifying the sources of international students in post-secondary education is a naive logic: The portfolio of international students is controlled by the recruitment efforts of host countries and universities. Given this logic, the host countries and universities decide on where their international students are from and how diverse their international student population is. The logic results in an overestimate of the value of recruitment efforts by host countries and universities. It tends to overlook a whole range of other macro factors that determine international student mobility more significantly than recruitment efforts. Most notably, certain macro factors are beyond the control of host countries and universities, and their diversification efforts are futile and a waste of resources.

This article is devoted to the environmental factors, influencing the implementation of standardized management systems of the enterprise at the country level. The problem is considered from the perspective of systems theory and complexity theory. The research focuses on management systems created following ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 standards and their relationship with the external environment. The study involved 20 European countries with different levels of economic and innovative development. The formation and subsequent development of standardized management systems (SMSs) require considering environmental factors, the context of the enterprise, which is reflected in the provisions of standards for management systems. However, the issues of the influence of environmental factors on the decision of enterprises to implement standardized management systems have been insufficiently studied. The work contains three hypotheses: a) about the connection between environmental factors and the introduction of SMSs by enterprises; b) about the diversity and uniqueness of the configurations of environmental factors affecting the spread of the SMSs in different countries; c) regarding the presence of similar structures of environmental factors influencing the spread of the SMSs in separate countries, which would make it possible to identify the basic types of such configurations. The study resulted in confirmation that a connection between environmental factors on the implementation of the SMSs exists, and groups of aggregated factors along with their components were identified. The features of the configurations of factors influencing the SMSs in different countries were considered. A distinctive type of influence of the external environment on the SMSs board, common for several European countries, was revealed, and called as ‘denying’. Correlation analysis was used to determine the relationship between the factorial and the resulting characteristics, the results of which were subjected to qualitative discussion. Further research in this direction should cover a larger number of countries and factors influencing the formation of the SMSs. This will allow identifying a greater number of basic types of external environment influence on the formation of SMSs for enterprises in different countries and regions

This paper explores the relationship between macro-factors and the realized volatility of commodity futures. Three main commodities—soybeans, gold and crude oil—are investigated using high-frequency data. For macro factors, we select six indicators including economic policy uncertainty (EPU), the economic surprise index (ESI), default spread (DEF), the investor sentiment index (SI), the volatility index (VIX), and the geopolitical risk index (GPR). These indicators represent three dimensions from macroeconomics and capital markets to a broader geopolitical dimension. Through establishing a dynamic connectedness network, we show how these macro factors contribute to the volatility fluctuations in commodity markets. The results demonstrate clearly distinctive features in the reaction to macro shocks across different commodities. Crude oil and gold, for example, are more reactive to market sentiment, whereas DEF contributes the most to the realized volatility of soybeans. Macroeconomic factors and geopolitical risks are more relevant to crude oil volatilities compare to the other two. Our empirical results also reveal the fact that the macro influence on the realized volatility of commodities is time varying., Highlights • A dynamic connectedness network is built to link the macro factors and commodity volatility. • Realized volatility of crude oil and gold are more reactive to market sentiment. • DEF contributes the most to the realized volatility of soybeans among macro factors. • Macro factors are more relevant to crude oil volatilities than that of gold and soybeans. • The macro influence on the realized volatility of commodities is time varying.

We incorporate a latent stochastic volatility factor and macroeconomic expectations in an affine model for the term structure of nominal and real rates. We estimate the model over 1999–2016 on U.S. data for nominal and TIPS yields, the realized and implied volatility of T-bonds, and survey forecasts of GDP growth and inflation. We find relatively stable inflation risk premia averaging at 40 basis points at the long-end, and which are strongly related to the volatility factor and conditional mean of output growth. We also document real risk premia that turn negative in the post-crisis period, and a non-negligible variance risk premium.

Much of the existing literature on foreign ethical divestment has been developed in isolation and scattered across multiple disciplines. This paper reviews the existing literature on foreign ethical divestment to extract emerging themes and outline new directions for future research. Our review uncovered that foreign ethical divestment decisions can be attributed to macro, firm and individual level factors. We therefore develop an integrated model to link the dynamics of ethical foreign divestment. The study identified a number of unanswered questions and implications for future research.

Özdemir, Hüseyin (Dogus Author) Stock prices are one of the most influential factors for investors and companies while deciding investment on stocks in order to maximize stock returns. The investors will be able to make more consistent investment decision when the investor consider the macro factors and financial ratios that affect the stock returns. For this purpose, this study deals whether there is any relationship between stock returns and the financial ratios and to determine which macro factors are the most effective on stock returns by using Multiple Regression Analysis Model. Quarterly financial ratio datas and stock returns of 10 companies which are traded in BIST and ranked by market cap are selected in the period 2008-2015. Financial ratios including return on equity, debt to equity ratio and current ratio. Volatility index, gold price, inflation, brent oil price, money supply, Bovespa index, gross domestic product and industrial production index are used as macro factors that are expected to affect stock returns. According to the results of the analysis, Bovespa index affects stock returns and also the financial ratios can predict stock returns as the Debt to equity has the higher predictive power than Current ratio and Return on equity. Hisse senedi fiyatları, hisse senedi getirilerini maksimize etmek için hisse senetlerine yatırım yapmaya karar verirken yatırımcılar ve şirketler için en önemli faktörlerden biridir. Yatırımcıların hisse senetleri piyasasında yatırım kararları sırasındaki en önemli faktörlerdendir. Yatırımcılar, yatırım yapmayı planladığı hisse senedi getirilerini etkileyen makro faktörleri ve finansal oranları göz önünde bulundurduğunda daha tutarlı yatırım kararları verebileceklerdir. Bu amaçla, çalışmada hisse senedi getirileri ile finansal oranlar arasında herhangi bir ilişki olup olmadığı ve en çok hangi makro faktörün hisse senedi getirilerini etkilediği Çoklu Regresyon Analiz Modeli kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Borsa İstanbul’da işlem gören ve piyasa değer büyüklüğüne göre sıralanan 10 şirketin 2008-2015 döneminde çeyreklik finansal oran verileri ve hisse senedi getirileri kullanılmıştır. Özsermaye Kârlılık Oranı, Cari Oran ve Borç/Özsermaye Oranı finansal oranlar olarak kullanılmıştır. Hisse senedi getirilerini etkilemesi beklenen makro faktörler olarak oynaklık endeksi, altın fiyatı, enflasyon, brent petrol fiyatı, para arzı, Bovespa endeksi, gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla, sanayi üretim endeksi kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, Bovespa index hisse senedi getirilerini etkilemekte ve ayrıca finansal oranlar ile hisse senedi getirileri tahmin edilebilmektedir. Borç/Özsermaye Oranı, cari oran ve özsermaye kârlılık oranından daha yüksek tahmin etme gücüne sahiptir FOREWORD. i -- ABSTRACT. ii -- ÖZET. iii -- TABLE OF CONTENTS. iv -- LIST OF TABLES. vii -- ABREVIATIONS. viii -- 1. INTRODUCTION. 1 -- CHAPTER 1 STOCK, THE BASIC CONCEPTS ABOUT THE FACTORS AFFECTING STOCK PRICES. 3 -- 1. 1. Description of Stock. 3 -- 1. 2. Types of Stocks. 4 -- 1. 2. 1. Registered and Bearer Stocks. 4 -- 1. 2. 2. Common and Preferred Stocks. 5 -- 1. 2. 3. Bonus and Paid Up Stocks. 5 -- 1. 2. 4 Premium and Non-Premium Stocks. 6 -- 1. 2. 5. Founder and Dividend Stocks. 6 -- 1. 3. Rights and Obligations of Stockholders. 6 -- 1. 3. 1. Right to Dividend. 7 -- 1. 3. 2. Pre-emptive Rights. 7 -- 1. 3. 3. Right to Participate in the Management of a Company. 7 -- 1. 3. 4. Right to Participate in the Liquidation Balance. 8 -- 1. 3. 5. Right to Vote. 8 -- 1. 3. 6. Right to Receive Information. 8 -- 1. 3. 7. Capital Debt. 8 -- 1. 3. 8. Confidentiality Debt. 9 -- 1. 4. Value Definitions of Stocks. 9 -- 1. 4. 1. Nominal Value. 9 -- 1. 4. 2. Book Value. 10 -- 1. 4. 3. Market (Stock Market) Value. 10 -- 1. 4. 4. Issue (Emission) Value. 11 -- 1. 4. 5. Real Value. 11 -- 1. 4. 6. Liquidation Value. 11 -- 1. 4. 7. Going Concern Value. 12 -- 1. 5. Stock Market in Turkey. 12 -- 1. 5. 1. Duties and Authorities of BIST. 13 -- 1. 5. 2. Weaknesses of BIST. 13 -- 1. 5. 3. Strengths of BIST. 14 -- 1. 6. Risks Encountered in Stock Investments. 14 -- 1. 6. 1. Systematic Risks. 15 -- 1. 6. 2. Non-Systematic Risks. 17 -- 1. 7. The Macroeconomic Factors That Affecting Stock Returns. 18 -- 1. 7. 1. Money Supply. 19 -- 1. 7. 2. Volatility Index. 19 -- 1. 7. 3. Inflation. 20 -- 1. 7. 4. Industrial Production Index. 21 -- 1. 7. 5. Gross Domestic Product. 21 -- 1. 7. 6. Brent Oil Price. 21 -- 1. 7. 7. Gold Price. 22 -- 1. 7. 8. Bovespa Index. 22 -- 1. 8. Other Factors That Affecting Stock Returns. 22 -- 1. 8. 1. Internal Factors. 22 -- 1. 8. 1. 1. Capital Structures. 23 -- 1. 8. 1. 2. Corporate Governance. 23 -- 1. 8. 1. 3. Insider Trading. 24 -- 1. 8. 1. 4. Manipulation. 24 -- 1. 8. 1. 5. Estimated Operating Earnings. 25 -- 1. 8. 1. 6. Dividend Policy. 25 -- 1. 8. 1. 7. Information Quality Specified in the Financial Reports. 26 -- 1. 8. 1. 8. Intellectual Capital. 26 -- 1. 8. 2. External Factors. 27 -- 1. 8. 2. 1. Political Factors. 27 -- 1. 8. 2. 2. Speculation. 28 -- 1. 8. 2. 3. Seasonal Movements. 28 -- 1. 8. 2. 4. Market Psychology. 29 -- 1. 8. 3. Industry Related Factors. 29 -- 1. 8. 3. 1. Principal Business Activity. 30 -- 1. 8. 3. 2. Position and Share of the Business in the Sector. 30 -- 1. 8. 3. 3. Level of Competition in the Industry. 30 -- 1. 8. 3. 4. Governmental Incentive in the Sector. 31 -- 1. 9. Comparison of BIST and Developing Countries. 31 -- CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW. 33 -- CHAPTER 3. METHODS AND FINDINGS. 40 -- 3. 1. Macroeconomic Factors. 40 -- 3. 1. 1. Model of Study. 40 -- 3. 1. 2. Research Aim and Significance. 40 -- 3. 1. 3. Data Collection. 40 -- 3. 1. 4. Statistical Methods Used In The Study. 41 -- 3. 1. 5. Multiple Linear Regression Model Analysis. 41 -- 3. 1. 5. 1. Summary of Multiple Linear Regression Analysis in Stata. 42 -- 3. 1. 5. 2. Autocorrelation. 44 -- 3. 1. 5. 2. 1. Durbin Watson Test. 44 -- 3. 1. 5. 2. 2. Unit Root Test. 45 -- 3. 1. 5. 2. 3. Augmented Dickey Fuller Test. 45 -- 3. 2. Financial Ratios. 59 -- 3. 2. 1. Return on Equity. 60 -- 3. 2. 2. Debt/Equity Ratio. 60 -- 3. 2. 3. Current Ratio. 61 -- 3. 2. 4. Market Capitalization. 61 -- 3. 3. Findings. 62 -- CONCLUSION. 73 -- REFERENCES. 75 -- AUTOBIOGRAPHY. 81

У статті досліджено світові тенденції розвитку морських портів за останні роки. Визначено напрямки розвитку, які демонструють взаємодію морського транспорту і світової економіки. Виділено чинники макросередовища, які суттєво впливають на діяльність підприємств морської галузі України. По кожній групі висвітлена проблема та рекомендовані напрями дій. На думку авторів, утілення в життя запропонованих заходів сприятиме підвищенню конкурентоспроможності українських портів на світовому ринку за рахунок збільшення обсягів перевалки вантажів, залучення нових вантажопотоків, розширення асортименту робіт та послуг., В статье исследованы мировые тенденции развития морских портов за последние годы. Определены направления развития, которые демонстрируют взаимодействие морского транспорта и мировой экономики. Выделены факторы макросреды, существенно влияющие на деятельность предприятий морской отрасли Украины. По каждой группе освещена проблема и рекомендованы направления действий. По мнениям авторов, реализация предложенных мер будет способствовать повышению конкурентоспособности украинских портов на мировом рынке за счет увеличения объемов перевалки грузов; привлечения новых грузопотоков; расширения ассортимента работ и услуг., The world trends of the development of seaports in recent years are investigated in the article. During the last twenty years, the volume of world seaborne trade has doubled, especially in the sectors of dry cargo and container traffic. This is due to the increase in trade in the southern hemisphere and the continued strong demand for iron ore in China. In terms of regional influence, Asia continues to dominate as the primary transshipment site, then follow North and South America, Europe, Oceania and Africa. The fall in oil prices has affected the volume of supply and sea trade, in particular the tanker trade, its share fell to 28.7 percent in 2014. Meanwhile, lower fuel costs make it possible to reduce the costs of ship operators and the rates paid by the shipper. This in turn could stimulate demand for maritime transportation services and the increase in marine cargo flow. The research allowed to identify macro factors that have a significant effect on the activity of the enterprises of the maritime industry (economic, political, technological) and to recommend the development directions for each group. Most of Ukrainian sea ports problems are systemic and interrelated and require settlement at the national level through the creation of an appropriate regulatory framework and the formation of the conceptual foundations on combination of government regulation and market self-regulation of sea ports development. Capacity building and improving the quality of works and port services is the main direction of investment and innovation activity. All this will lead to an increase in the competitiveness of Ukrainian ports in the world market due to increased volumes of cargo handling, attraction of new cargo flows and expansion of the range of work and services.

This paper investigates the power of macroeconomic factors to explain euro area bond risk premia using (i) a large dataset that captures the nowadays data-rich environment (ii) the Elastic Net variable selection. We find that macroeconomic factors, in particular economic activity and sentiment indicators, explain 40% of the variability of risk premia before the crisis, and up to 55% during the financial crisis, and both for core countries (from 40% to 60%) and periphery countries (from 35% to 44%). Moreover, macroeconomic factor models clearly outperform financial indicators like the CP-factor and credit default swap (CDS) premia, even in periods of significant market turbulence.

This study investigates the link between macro and non-macro explanatory factors and Chinese hotel stock returns. Macro variables include growth rates of industrial production and imports, discount rates, yield spread and inflation rate. In addition, growth rate of total foreign tourist arrivals ( Δ TA ) was introduced as another critical macro factor that may affect Chinese hotel stock returns, considering a tremendous growth of tourism in China. Empirical results indicated that the impact of Δ TA was positive, but insignificant. Thus, Chinese hotel stock returns were more sensitive to general macro variables. Non-macro events that could significantly impact Chinese hotel stock returns encompass financial crises, natural disasters, wars, terrorist attacks, political events, and sports mega-events. Discussions and conclusions are provided to guide hospitality investors.

This paper considers asset pricing from the production side. It differs from earlier approaches to production-based asset pricing in that the pricing kernel is derived by replacing the marginal rate of intertemporal substitution with an amended version of the marginal rate of intertemporal transformation in a complete markets economy. Relying on a general version of the traditional Real Business Cycle macro model we find that the variables determining the mean returns of all financial assets are the productivity shock as the sole factor together with the capital stock and lagged Solow residual (productivity level) as conditioning variables. Standard GMM estimation finds that our model improves on the complementary consumption-based and market-based approaches and is competitive with the Fama-French three-factor model. The model explains the size premium from differences in the unconditional sensitivity to productivity shocks—small firms are more sensitive to productivity shocks—and explains the value premium from differences in the conditional sensitivity to productivity shocks—growth stocks are more sensitive to productivity shocks in good states when the risk premium is low.

Den 18 februari i år fick Sverige en negativ reporänta. Ett historiskt ögonblick i Sveriges ekonomiska historia. I detta arbete har vi valt att fokusera på hur den kommersiella fastighetsmarknaden kommer att påverkas av denna händelse. Den kommersiella fastighetsmarknadens rörelse är inte beroende av enbart en variabel utan av flera. Som i sin tur är mer eller mindre beroende av varandra. BNP och reporäntan är två av dessa variabler som påverkar den studerade marknaden. I arbetet valdes fyra scenarion ut där BNP och reporäntan befann sig i olika lägen under 2000-talet. Dessa fyra scenarion leder fram till en diskussion angående ett eventuellt samband mellan de olika faktorerna och makrofaktorernas rörelse. Vi studerar även om vi på grund av detta eventuella samband kan förutsäga framtiden. Den framtid som förväntas kantas av en sjunkande negativ reporänta och en växande ekonomisk tillväxt. Efter att ha genomfört studien kan vi utläsa ett samband mellan våra utvalda makrofaktorer och den kommersiella fastighetsmarknaden. Ett tydligt mönster, vid en sammanställning av resultaten från våra scenarion, har inte hittats och kan därför inte användas i en argumentation kring följden av reporäntans nu negativa värde. Resonemanget förs dock kring att den negativa reporäntan och dagens ekonomiska tillväxt kommer påverka den kommersiella fastighetsmarknaden positivt snarare än negativt. On 18th of February this year, the Swedish central bank set a negative repo rate. This was a historic moment in Sweden's economic history. In this paper, we have chosen to focus on how the commercial property market will be affected by this event. The commercial property market movements is not dependent on only one variable, but a set of dependent and independent variables. GDP and the repo rate are two variables that affect the studied market. In this essay, four different scenarios were chosen where GDP and the repo rate were in different positions during the 2000s. These four scenarios lead to a discussion about a possible relationship between the commercial property market- and the macro factors movement. The paper also discusses if the future can be predicted, because of a possible relationship. The future that is expected to consist of a sinking negative repo rate and an economic growth. After conducting the study, the paper concludes that there is a strong connection between our selected macro factors and the commercial property market. Although, a clear pattern, after a summary of the results of our scenarios, has not been found and therefore cannot be used in an argument about the result of the negative repo rate. The conclusion is, however, that the negative repo rate and today's economic growth will affect the commercial property market positively rather than negatively

We study fluctuations in stock prices using a framework derived from the present value model augmented with a macroeconomic factor. The fundamental value is derived as the expected present discounted value of broad dividends that include, in addition to traditional cash dividends, other payouts to shareholders. A stochastic discount factor motivated by the consumption-based asset pricing model is utilized. A single macroeconomic factor, namely the output gap determines the non-fundamental component of stock prices. A resulting trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model of stock prices, broad dividends, and the output gap shows evidence of cointegration in the DJIA and S&amp, P 500 index data. Nonetheless, a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test reveals existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in S&amp, P 500 data during the late 1990s.

In this paper, I have examined the relation between expected returns and measures of systematic risk stemming from macroeconomic factors studied by Chen, Roll and Ross (1986, hereafter CRR) for a different time period (1978-2007) and different formation of portfolios (based on ME and BE/ME). Like CRR, I’ve used a version of Fama and MacBeth’s (1973) two-pass cross-sectional regression (CSR) methodology. Apparently, changing the time period and formation of portfolio lead to noticeably different conclusions. Using the same macrofactors as CRR only factor related to the change in expected inflation (DEI) is significantly priced in the overall period. The sample mean of the Industrial production factor (MP), a highly significant factor in CRR, is insignificant, although positive, for this period. Adding a sixth factor that captures the investor’s confidence in the market is quite insensitive to other marcofactors. However, both the five factor by CRR and proposed six factor model show evidence of joint significance, which is a new property entered in this paper.

We examine the importance of incorporating macroeconomic information and, in particular, accounting for model uncertainty when forecasting the term structure of U.S.interest rates. We start off by analyzing and comparing the forecast performance of several individual term structure models. Our results confirm and extend results found in previous literature that adding macroeconomic information, through factors extracted from a large number of individual series, tends to improve interest rate forecasts. We then show, however, that the predictive power of individual models varies over time significantly. Models with macro factors are the more accurate in and around recession periods. Models without macro factors do particularly well in low-volatility subperiods such as the late 1990s. We demonstrate that this problem of model uncertainty can be mitigated by combining individual model forecasts. Combining forecasts leads to encouraging gains in predictability, especially for longer-dated maturities, and importantly, these gains are consistent over time.

A common European bond would yield a common European Monetary Union risk free rate. We present tentative estimates of this common risk free for the European Monetary Union countries from 2004 to 2009 using variables motivated by a theoretical portfolio selection model. First, we analyze the determinants of EMU sovereign yield spreads and find significant effects of the credit quality, macro, correlation, and liquidity variables. However, their effects are different before and after the current financial crisis, being stronger in the latter period. Robustness tests with different data frequencies, benchmarks, liquidity variables, cross section regressions and balanced panels confirm the initial results. We propose four different estimates of the common risk free rate and show that, in most cases, this common rate could imply savings in borrowing costs for all the countries involved.

The main aim of this thesis is to measure social and economic factors which have the greatest impact on tolerance of population to immigrants in European Union countries and to figure out how attitudes towards immigrants changed in the period between 2002 and 2016. For this reason is analyzed data from the European Social Survey, OECD, the World Bank and Knoema databases for 25 European countries. Though the analysis of scientific works are identified macro and personal factors which could affect tolerance. As macro variables in research are considered to use the unemployment rate, GDPpc, FDI and crime situation in the country, as personal variables are considered the respondent’s age, gender, marital status, level of education, work situation, religiosity, interest in politics, importance of traditions, feel of safety, satisfaction in country’s economy and life in general. For calculations are used ordinary least and ordered logit econometrical models and calculations are made using Eviews software. The results demonstrated that in general tolerance towards immigrants increased during the period and personal situation is more influencing tolerance than macro factors in hosting country but the significance of factors and direction of relations differ across the countries. O principal objectivo desta tese é determinar os factores sociais e económicos que têm maior impacto na tolerância da população para com os imigrantes nos países da União Europeia e analisar como essas atitudes mudaram entre 2002 e 2016. Considerando estes objectivos, foram analisados dados de 25 países europeus a partir das bases de dados do European Social Survey, OCDE, Banco Mundial e Knoema. Foram estudados e analisados vários de trabalhos científicos que permitiram identificar factores macro e factores pessoais que podem afetar a tolerância. Neste estudo foram considerados como variáveis macro: a taxa de desemprego, PIBpc, IED e situação criminal no país, enquanto que como factores pessoais foram considerados: a idade dos inquiridos, sexo, estado civil, nível de escolaridade, situação laboral, religião, interesse pela política, importância dada à tradição, sensação de segurança, satisfação na economia do país e na vida em geral. Para a análise empirica foram usados os modelos de mínimos quadrados ordinários e os modelos logit ordenado, tendo sido utilizado para o efeito o software Eviews. Os resultados demonstraram que, em geral, a tolerância em relação aos imigrantes aumentou durante o período analisado e a situação pessoal influencia mais a tolerância que os fatores macro no país de acolhimento, embora, no enatno, pese que a significância dos fatores e direcção das relações diferem nos vários países em análise. Mestrado em Economia