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Abstract Agriculture accounts for a significant share of global freshwater use, with the livestock sector contributing substantially. The production of animal feeds stands out as the step of the production chain responsible for the high water use associated with the consumption of animal-source foods. Estimating the water footprint (WF) of livestock feeds is crucial for sustainable animal farming. This study fills gaps in the existing literature by evaluating the WF of 140 animal feed products across 262 countries. Utilizing the WATNEEDS model, we quantify green and blue water requirements based on crop-specific areas and climatic data averaged between 2015 and 2019. Our analysis covers rainfed and irrigated conditions, considering crop yields, conversion factors, and feed use fractions. Results provide insights into the water footprint associated with diverse feed products globally, aiding in informed decision-making for sustainable livestock production systems. This dataset contributes to enhancing our understanding of the environmental impact of the livestock sector and informs on strategies for water resource management in the agri-food sector through more sustainable animal nutrition.

Nuisance flooding phenomena do not only affect urban areas, but also agriculture, determining catastrophic damages to crops. The impact of floods on crops has been an underrated topic in scientific literature that focuses more on urban areas, probably because they tend to have higher densities of population, infrastructure, industries, and real estate properties, which translates into more substantial human and economic losses during floods. In this work, we proposed a quantitative physically based method for crop damage assessment based on distributed hydrodynamic modelling of flood events. It exploited a combined high-resolution 1D-2D hydraulic model and crop resistance interlinked dynamics. The method allows to quantify, with unprecedented high resolution, the spatially distributed probability of crop losses for different crop types for different flood recurrence intervals. The methodology is applied in a relevant case study in central Italy, the Marta River basin, that experienced impactful floods on the extended riverine agricultural lands. Modelling results allow to represent combined maximum water levels per flood scenario, ponding time of water on the field, and the maximum flow velocities considering growth stages of different crops. Results showed that April is the most vulnerable month with the greatest potential losses (4.47 × 109 kcal for the 200-year return period), due to the high concentration of winter cereals (>50 %) with high fragility at the flowering stage. A set of alternative crops that demonstrate to be more flood tolerant or to grow in a period offset from the peak flood occurrence were also assessed showing the potential use of the proposed methodology towards better agricultural management in floodplains.

Abstract The food and energy systems face mounting challenges due to increasing demands and sustainability constraints, which impact their ability to efficiently utilize natural resources, such as land and freshwater. Among these challenges, competition for land between large‐scale renewable energy production plants and agriculture poses a risk, especially for photovoltaics. Agrivoltaics offers an opportunity to synergistically use land for simultaneous production of energy and food. Recent studies have investigated the upscaling potential of agrivoltaics, moving from field scale analyses to larger‐scale suitability assessments. Yet, studies addressing the interaction between crop dynamics and local climatic factors, as well as explicitly investigating hydrological dynamics of agrivoltaics across crops and climates, are still limited. Here, we first superpose a spatial data set of existing photovoltaic farms with different land use/land cover maps to assess the magnitude of land use competition associated with photovoltaics. Then, we use a spatialized agro‐hydrological model to simulate the response to different levels of radiation attenuation of 22 non‐irrigated crops in their harvested areas across the globe. We find that 22%–35% of rainfed harvested areas globally would maintain their yields if converted to agrivoltaics, while 13%–16% of ground‐mounted photovoltaic plants globally are associated with a cropland to non‐cropland transition. While carrying the typical limitations and uncertainties of global studies, our results may offer novel possibilities for cross‐crop and cross‐location comparisons of agrivoltaic experiences, as well as a basis to have a deeper and cross‐scale understanding of the feasibility of photovoltaics.

Abstract The emergence of SARS-like coronaviruses is a multi-stage process from wildlife reservoirs to people. Here we characterize multiple drivers—landscape change, host distribution, and human exposure—associated with the risk of spillover of zoonotic SARS-like coronaviruses to help inform surveillance and mitigation activities. We consider direct and indirect transmission pathways by modeling four scenarios with livestock and mammalian wildlife as potential and known reservoirs before examining how access to healthcare varies within clusters and scenarios. We found 19 clusters with differing risk factor contributions within a single country (N = 9) or transboundary (N = 10). High-risk areas were mainly closer (11-20%) rather than far (

Abstract On behalf of the journal, AGU, and the scientific community, we, the editors of Earth's Future, are delighted to publish the names of the 817 peer reviewers who provided 1,242 reviews for our journal in 2023 (italicized names have contributed three or more reviews). Your diligent efforts to provide timely comments on our submissions have significantly improved the manuscripts and elevated the scientific rigor of future research. As a unique transdisciplinary journal, Earth's Future delves into the state of the planet and its inhabitants, sustainable and resilient societies, the science of the Anthropocene, and predictions of our shared future through research articles, reviews, and commentaries. In the face of observed and anticipated global environmental and climatic changes, the need for high‐quality scientific theories, assessments, and projections about the future of our planet has never been more pressing. To safeguard research integrity in this crucial area, we rely on our reviewers' expertise and selfless cooperation. We extend our heartfelt thanks to each of the individuals listed below for their contributions to our journal and the broader scientific discourse. Your dedication is immensely appreciated.

Water scarcity associated with large-scale land acquisitions is exacerbated by adoption of water-intensive crops and expansion of irrigation, which in turn increases rival water uses.

Non-technical summary Environmental threats to shelter, livelihoods, and food security are often considered push factors for intra-African human migration. Research in this field is often fragmented into a myriad of case studies on specific subregions or events, thus preventing a more comprehensive understanding of the phenomenon. This paper examines environmental drivers reported in the literature as push factors for human displacement across 32 sub-Saharan African countries between 1990 and 2021. Extensive consultation of past studies and reports with analytical methods shows that environmental migration is complex and influenced by multiple direct and indirect factors. Non-environmental drivers compound the effects of environmental change. Technical summary Intra-African environmental migration is a bleak reality. Warming trends, aridification, and the intensification of extreme climate events, combined with underlying non-environmental drivers, may set millions of people on the move. Despite previous studies and meta-analyses on environmental migration within sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), conclusive empirical evidence of the relationship between environmental change and migration is still missing. Here we draw on 87 case studies published in the scholarly literature (from fields ranging from the environmental sciences to development economics and migration research) or documented by research databases, reports, and international disaster datasets to develop a meta-analysis investigating the relationship between environmental changes and migration across SSA. A combination of quantitative, Qualitative Comparative Analyses (QCA), and statistical correlation methods are used to analyze the metadata and investigate the complex web of environmental drivers of environmental migration in SSA while highlighting subregional differences in the predominant environmental forcing. We develop a new conceptual framework for investigating the cascading flow of interdependences among environmental change drivers of human displacement while reconstructing the main migration patterns across SSA. We also present new insights into the way non-environmental factors are exposing communities in SSA to high vulnerability and reduced resilience to environmental change. Social media summary Human displacement in sub-Saharan Africa is often associated with the effects of climate change and environmental degradation.

The global agrarian transition is characterized by a rise in large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs), whose energy impacts are unknown. Here, the authors assess how LSLAs change land use, finding that they necessitate greater investment in energy to meet demands, and greater greenhouse gas emissions.

Agricultural large-scale land acquisitions have been linked with enhanced deforestation and land use change. Yet the extent to which transnational agricultural large-scale land acquisitions (TALSLAs) contribute to—or merely correlate with—deforestation, and the expected biodiversity impacts of the intended land use changes across ecosystems, remains unclear. We examine 178 georeferenced TALSLA locations in 40 countries to address this gap. While forest cover within TALSLAs decreased by 17% between 2000 and 2018 and became more fragmented, the spatio-temporal patterns of deforestation varied substantially across regions. While deforestation rates within initially forested TALSLAs were 1.5 (Asia) to 2 times (Africa) higher than immediately surrounding areas, we detected no such difference in Europe and Latin America. Our findings suggest that, whereas TALSLAs may have accelerated forest loss in Asia, a different mechanism might emerge in Africa where TALSLAs target areas already experiencing elevated deforestation. Regarding biodiversity (here focused on vertebrate species), we find that nearly all (91%) studied deals will likely experience substantial losses in relative species richness (−14.1% on average within each deal)—with mixed outcomes for relative abundance—due to the intended land use transitions. We also find that 39% of TALSLAs fall at least partially within biodiversity hotspots, placing these areas at heightened risk of biodiversity loss. Taken together, these findings suggest distinct regional differences in the nature of the association between TALSLAs and forest loss and provide new evidence of TALSLAs as an emerging threat to biodiversity in the Global South.

A systemic approach was proposed to analyse a complex system such that of food value chains. Typical management methodologies were applied to a citrus derivatives industry and, based on the survey outcomes, a sustainable optimisation plan was formulated integrating the critical domains of the water-food-energy nexus. The overall process was mapped in detail. The SWOT analysis was applied to identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats related to each step of the production chain of the citrus derived products. To prioritize its critical output factors, the Impact-Feasibility Map tool was defined. Critical issues characterised by the highest impact and easiest feasibility were the un-optimized fertilization and irrigation, non-objective human inspections, lack of production standardization and accumulation of organic waste.Structured interviews to the company managers were conducted to identify the most relevant company's needs.With a view on process and product sustainability, suggestions based on good manufacturing practices and on literature were scheduled within a 10-years industrial development plan accomplishing a circular economy scheme. The performed analysis is preliminary to optimisation actions in view of process sustainability that will be carried out according to the classic engineering approach. The present actual goal is to contextualize the engineering interventions in relation to the needs of the producers. Indeed, empirical contextualised research will be necessary to assess whether the sustainable actions and measures identified in this study can be validated in actual practice with conventional chemical engineering optimisation procedures.

Soil erosion is addressed as one of the main hydrogeological risks in the European Union. Since the average annual soil loss rate exceeds the annual average formation rate, soil is considered as a non-renewable resource. Besides, human activities, human-induced forces and climate change have further accelerated the erosion processes. Therefore, understanding soil erosion spatial and temporal trends could provide important information for supporting government land-use policies and strategies for its reduction. This paper describes the Dynamic Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (D-RUSLE) model, a modified version of the well-known RUSLE model. The RUSLE model formulation was modified to include variations in rainfall erosivity and land-cover to provide more accurate estimates of the potential soil erosion in the Italian Alps. Specifically, the modelling of snow occurrence and the inclusion of Earth Observation data allow dynamic estimation of both spatial and temporal land-cover changes. Results obtained in Val Camonica (Italy) show that RUSLE model tends to overestimate erosion rates in Autumn/Winter because not considering snow cover and vegetation dynamics. The assimilation of satellite-derived information in D-RUSLE allows a better representation of soil erosion forcing, thus proving a more accurate erosion estimate for supporting government land-use policies and strategies for reducing this phenomenon.

Rainforests ensure fundamental water-related ecosystem services that are currently threatened by land-use change, in particular deforestation. Quantitative assessments of water-related ecosystem services have traditionally focused on the benefits linked to direct water availability for humans. Under this perspective, forests have been considered as water consumers, due to high interception and transpiration rates that reduce water flows available to downstream human activities. In contrast, their role as water suppliers through transpiration from tree canopies has often been neglected. Integrating this second perspective into assessments of water-related ecosystem services from forests and other land covers is key to providing a comprehensive support to decision-making processes on land-use change. In addition, specific indicators are necessary to incorporate the contribution of the different water balance components into ecosystem service assessment.In this paper, we investigate the use of water balance partitioning for the assessment of water-related ecosystem services. We use three water balance models (two existing ones and one developed in this study) and compare, via model simulations, water balance partitioning and water-related ecosystem services of a forested and a deforested area of the Brazilian State of Rondônia. Then, we propose a set of indicators that, based on the outputs of the models, provide a multidimensional characterization of different land-use types. Regardless of the model used, the values of these indicators for the selected case study consistently point out the key role of vegetation in regulating the water cycle. Forests act as effective indirect water suppliers for human activities and are key players in moisture recycling, thanks to high evapotranspiration rates (about 68% of total precipitation). Deforested areas, instead, act as direct suppliers of water flows for human activities due to higher drainage rates (about 50% of total precipitation).The proposed methodology helps highlight the importance of comprehensive water-related ecosystem services assessments. Moreover, the indicators quantitatively support the impact assessment of land-use change on the different processes involved in the water cycle and on human activities relying, directly or indirectly, on these processes.

The Labyrinth in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica is characterized by large bedrock channels emerging from beneath the margin of Wright Upper Glacier. To study the morphodynamics of large subglacial channels cut into bedrock, we develop herein a numerical model based on the classical theory of subglacial channels and recent results on bedrock abrasion by saltating bed load. Model results show that bedrock abrasion in subglacial channels with pressurized flow reaches a maximum at an intermediate distance up-ice from the glacier snout for a wide range of sediment grain sizes and sediment loads. Close to the snout, the velocity is too low and the sediment particles cannot be mobilized. Far from the snout, the flow accelerates and sediment is transported in suspension, thus limiting particle impacts at the channel bottom and reducing abrasion. This non-monotonic relationship between subglacial flow and bedrock abrasion produces concave up bottom profiles in subglacial channels and potential cross-section constrictions after channel confluences. Both landforms are present in the bedrock channels of the Labyrinth. We therefore conclude that these geomorphic features are a possible signature of bedrock abrasion, rather than glacial scour, and reflect the complex interplay between transport rate, sediment load, and transport capacity in subglacial channels.

Growing population and rising incomes are leading to an ever-increasing demand for animal-based foods. Pigmeat is currently the most consumed meat globally, even exceeding the consumption of poultry meat. Despite the disproportionate environmental burden of animal production—mostly attributable to associated feed demand, up-to-date country-scale quantifications of the land and water impacts of the concentrate feed (mainly cereals and soybean) and co-products required to support pig production are still missing. In addition, the specific role that international feed trade plays in separating resource use from consumption and in altering resource use efficiencies remains unclear. This paper analyses at a country-scale the internal and external consumption of natural resources (i.e. land and water) to support pig feed production in 2018. Combining data on the country- and production system-specific diets and crop-specific yields with an agro-hydrological model, we find that 64.1 Mha of agricultural land (5% of all croplands) and 332.6 km ^3 of water (both green and blue) (6% of all agricultural water use) were utilized by China, EU-27 and the United States (accounting for 70% of pigmeat production) to produce pig feed alone. Comparing domestic feed production scenarios with those that also consider the feed trade, we show that global resource consumption tends to be more efficient when considering international feed trade, especially in China and EU-27, while sometimes causing significant environmental impacts. This demonstrates the need to investigate the environmental effects of pig feed associated both with the domestic use of natural resources, but also to the ones displaced by international trade.

In this work, a simple approach for calibrating the water footprint (WF) accounting of crops with in-stream measurements at the catchment scale was developed. The green and blue components of the WF were evaluated by performing a soil-water balance at a 10-day time-interval. The surface runoff was calibrated based on continuous streamflow measurements. Meanwhile, the grey component of the WF related to nitrogen use was quantified by means of the results from the in-stream monitoring activities.The methodology can be applied to any catchment where soil, land use, weather, agricultural practices, nitrogen balance and stream data are available. This methodological approach can support local authorities in the decision-making process for effective agricultural policy setting and water planning. • The WF accounting for an agricultural catchment is coupled with surface-water monitoring results • The green and blue WF are assessed by performing a soil-water balance • Surface runoff and grey water accounts are based on in-stream monitoring activities Method name: Calibrating the water footprint accounting of crops with in-stream measurements at catchment-scale, Keywords: Water footprint, Soil water balance, Runoff calibration, Nitrogen export coefficient, Temporary river, Surface water monitoring

Higher temperatures expected by midcentury increase the risk of shocks to crop production, while the interconnected nature of the current global food system functions to spread the impact of localized production shocks throughout the world. In this study, we analyze the global potential impact of a present-day event of equivalent magnitude to the US Dust Bowl, modeling the ways in which a sudden decline in US wheat production could cascade through the global network of agricultural trade. We use observations of country-level production, reserves, and trade data in a Food Shock Cascade model to explore trade adjustments and country-level inventory changes in response to a major, multiyear production decline. We find that a 4-year decline in wheat production of the same proportional magnitude as occurred during the Dust Bowl greatly reduces both wheat supply and reserves in the United States and propagates through the global trade network. By year 4 of the event, US wheat exports fall from 90.5 trillion kcal before the drought to 48 trillion to 52 trillion kcal, and the United States exhausts 94% of its reserves. As a result of reduced US exports, other countries meet their needs by leveraging their own reserves, leading to a 31% decline in wheat reserves globally. These findings demonstrate that an extreme production decline would lead to substantial supply shortfalls in both the United States and in other countries, where impacts outside the United States strongly depend on a country's reserves and on its relative position in the global trade network.

Global analyses have revealed virtual drains and gains of water between trading countries, with Mexico ranking as one of the countries with the fastest increase in unsustainable water consumption in agriculture for export markets, since 2000. It is unclear, however, how Mexico has reshaped its crop production and associated reliance on freshwater resources to satisfy growing domestic and international markets, especially the United States (US). While the Mexico-US partnership has been identified as one supported by unsustainable irrigation water, the spatial understanding of its strain on water resources has remained at the national scale and without context of the crops driving the change. In this analysis, we focus on the evolution of Mexican agriculture since 1994, the year the North American Free Trade Agreement was enacted, to identify hotspots of water unsustainability in crop production in the domestic and US supply chain. Using a global process-based crop water model, we find that between 1994 and 2015, rainwater (or ‘green’ water) and irrigation (or ‘blue’) water consumed in the production of crops increased by one fourth nationally, while water in crops exported to the US doubled. Virtual export of blue water embodied in the trade of berries increased five orders of magnitude; a substantial growth in blue water export was also associated with trade to the US of cereals, fruits, nuts, vegetables, pulses, and tubers. Our results show that in Mexico irrigated water plays an increasingly prominent role in export agriculture, and that many healthy crops that dominate US imports from the world are grown in water scarce Mexican municipalities relying on unsustainable irrigation practices. This serves as a warning for the sustainability of future Mexican healthy food supplies, both for the domestic market and for export to the US.

Recent studies have highlighted the reliance of global food production on unsustainable irrigation practices, which deplete freshwater stocks and environmental flows, and consequently impair aquatic ecosystems. Unsustainable irrigation is driven by domestic and international demand for agricultural products. Research on the environmental consequences of trade has often concentrated on the global displacement of pollution and land use, while the effect of trade on water sustainability and the drying of over-depleted watercourses has seldom been recognized and quantified. Here we evaluate unsustainable irrigation water consumption (UWC) associated with global crop production and determine the share of UWC embedded in international trade. We find that, while about 52% of global irrigation is unsustainable, 15% of it is virtually exported, with an average 18% increase between year 2000 and 2015. About 60% of global virtual transfers of UWC are driven by exports of cotton, sugar cane, fruits, and vegetables. One third of UWC in Mexico, Spain, Turkmenistan, South Africa, Morocco, and Australia is associated with demand from the export markets. The globalization of water through trade contributes to running rivers dry, an environmental externality commonly overlooked by trade policies. By identifying the producing and consuming countries that are responsible for unsustainable irrigation embedded in virtual water trade, this study highlights trade links in which policies are needed to achieve sustainable water and food security goals in the coming decades.

Water is a major factor limiting crop production in many regions around the world. Irrigation can greatly enhance crop yields, but the local availability and timing of freshwater resources constrains the ability of humanity to increase food production. Innovations in irrigation infrastructure have allowed humanity to utilize previously inaccessible water resources, enhancing water withdrawals for agriculture while increasing pressure on environmental flows and other human uses. While substantial additional water will be required to support future food production, it is not clear whether and where freshwater availability is sufficient to sustainably close the yield gap in cultivated lands. The extent to which irrigation can be expanded within presently rainfed cropland without depleting environmental flows remains poorly understood. Here we perform a spatially explicit biophysical assessment of global consumptive water use for crop production under current and maximum attainable yield scenarios assuming current cropping practices. We then compare these present and anticipated water consumptions to local water availability to examine potential changes in water scarcity. We find that global water consumption for irrigation could sustainably increase by 48% (408 km ^3 H _2 O yr ^−1 )—expanding irrigation to 26% of currently rainfed cultivated lands (2.67 × 10 ^6 km ^2 ) and producing 37% (3.38 × 10 ^15 kcal yr ^−1 ) more calories, enough to feed an additional 2.8 billion people. If current unsustainable blue water consumption (336 km ^3 yr ^−1 ) and production (1.19 × 10 ^15 kcal yr ^−1 ) practices were eliminated, a sustainable irrigation expansion and intensification would still enable a 24% increase in calorie (2.19 × 10 ^15 kcal yr ^−1 ) production. Collectively, these results show that the sustainable expansion and intensification of irrigation in selected croplands could contribute substantially to achieving food security and environmental goals in tandem in the coming decades.

Innovative experimental field designs and methods are instrumental for dissecting hydrological processes in hillslopes. However, experimental studies at the catchment scale are rarely affordable to most research groups, and laboratory flumes are oversimplified to reproduce natural phenomena. In this work, we present the innovative “hybrid” experimental plot of Cape Fear, which features controllable water fluxes and boundary conditions, but it is directly exposed to external atmospheric agents. We demonstrate the suitability of Cape Fear to study hydrological phenomena through a feasibility test, whereby the response of the plot to a natural storm is in line with the well-known hydrological response of natural hillslopes. Future studies will address the influence of the plot geometry parameters on rill formation.

Ensuring food security requires food production and distribution systems function throughout disruptions. Understanding the factors that contribute to the global food system’s ability to respond and adapt to such disruptions (i.e. resilience) is critical for understanding the long-term sustainability of human populations. Variable impacts of production shocks on food supply between countries indicate a need for national-scale resilience indicators that can provide global comparisons. However, methods for tracking changes in resilience have had limited application to food systems. We developed an indicator-based analysis of food systems resilience for the years 1992–2011. Our approach is based on three dimensions of resilience: socio-economic access to food in terms of income of the poorest quintile relative to food prices, biophysical capacity to intensify or extensify food production, and the magnitude and diversity of current domestic food production. The socio-economic indicator has a large variability, but with low values concentrated in Africa and Asia. The biophysical capacity indicator is highest in Africa and Eastern Europe, in part because of a high potential for extensification of cropland and for yield gap closure in cultivated areas. However, the biophysical capacity indicator has declined globally in recent years. The production diversity indicator has increased slightly, with a relatively even geographic distribution. Few countries had exclusively high or low values for all indicators. Collectively, these results are the basis for global comparisons of resilience between countries, and provide necessary context for developing generalizations about resilience in the global food system.

Spatially diverse trends in population growth, climate change, industrialization, urbanization and economic development are expected to change future food supply and demand. These changes may affect the suitability of land for food production, implying elevated risks especially for resource-constrained, food-importing countries. We present the evolution of biophysical redundancy for agricultural production at country level, from 1992 to 2012. Biophysical redundancy, defined as unused biotic and abiotic environmental resources, is represented by the potential food production of ‘spare land’, available water resources (i.e., not already used for human activities), as well as production increases through yield gap closure on cultivated areas and potential agricultural areas. In 2012, the biophysical redundancy of 75 (48) countries, mainly in North Africa, Western Europe, the Middle East and Asia, was insufficient to produce the caloric nutritional needs for at least 50% (25%) of their population during a year. Biophysical redundancy has decreased in the last two decades in 102 out of 155 countries, 11 of these went from high to limited redundancy, and nine of these from limited to very low redundancy. Although the variability of the drivers of change across different countries is high, improvements in yield and population growth have a clear impact on the decreases of redundancy towards the very low redundancy category. We took a more detailed look at countries classified as ‘Low Income Economies (LIEs)’ since they are particularly vulnerable to domestic or external food supply changes, due to their limited capacity to offset for food supply decreases with higher purchasing power on the international market. Currently, nine LIEs have limited or very low biophysical redundancy. Many of these showed a decrease in redundancy over the last two decades, which is not always linked with improvements in per capita food availability.

While a growing proportion of global food consumption is obtained through international trade, there is an ongoing debate on whether this increased reliance on trade benefits or hinders food security, and specifically, the ability of global food systems to absorb shocks due to local or regional losses of production. This paper introduces a model that simulates the short-term response to a food supply shock originating in a single country, which is partly absorbed through decreases in domestic reserves and consumption, and partly transmitted through the adjustment of trade flows. By applying the model to publicly-available data for the cereals commodity group over a 17 year period, we find that differential outcomes of supply shocks simulated through this time period are driven not only by the intensification of trade, but as importantly by changes in the distribution of reserves. Our analysis also identifies countries where trade dependency may accentuate the risk of food shortages from foreign production shocks; such risk could be reduced by increasing domestic reserves or importing food from a diversity of suppliers that possess their own reserves. This simulation-based model provides a framework to study the short-term, nonlinear and out-of-equilibrium response of trade networks to supply shocks, and could be applied to specific scenarios of environmental or economic perturbations.

The increasing demand for agricultural products and the uncertainty of international food markets has recently drawn the attention of governments and agribusiness firms toward investments in productive agricultural land, mostly in the developing world. The targeted countries are typically located in regions that have remained only marginally utilized because of lack of modern technology. It is expected that in the long run large scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) for commercial farming will bring the technology required to close the existing crops yield gaps. While the extent of the acquired land and the associated appropriation of freshwater resources have been investigated in detail, the amount of food this land can produce and the number of people it could feed still need to be quantified. Here we use a unique dataset of land deals to provide a global quantitative assessment of the rates of crop and food appropriation potentially associated with LSLAs. We show how up to 300–550 million people could be fed by crops grown in the acquired land, should these investments in agriculture improve crop production and close the yield gap. In contrast, about 190–370 million people could be supported by this land without closing of the yield gap. These numbers raise some concern because the food produced in the acquired land is typically exported to other regions, while the target countries exhibit high levels of malnourishment. Conversely, if used for domestic consumption, the crops harvested in the acquired land could ensure food security to the local populations.