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Seed production is critical to the persistence of most flowering plant populations, but may be strongly pollen limited. To what extent long-lived plants can compensate pollen limitation by increasing future reproduction is poorly understood. We tested for compensation in two Dactylorhiza species that differ in reproductive investment by experimentally reducing and increasing pollination in two independent annual cohorts and monitoring demographic responses in the subsequent 2 years for the 2014 cohort and in 1 year for the 2015 cohort. Demographic rates in the second year were significantly affected by pollination treatment in both species, but specific responses differed both between species and years. There was no effect of pollination treatment on demographic responses in the third year. In sum, effects were too weak to make up for the lost reproduction; total fruit production across all 3 years was by far highest in the increased pollination treatment in both species. These results show that long-lived plants do not necessarily compensate for pollen limitation by increasing future reproduction. It further suggests that even periodic declines in pollination rates may have severe demographic consequences, particularly in populations where germination is not density dependent. This has implications for predicting plant population viability in response to changes in pollination intensity. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s00442-020-04623-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Summary Natural and anthropogenic disturbances co-occur in most systems, but how they interact to shape demographic outcomes remains poorly understood. Such interactions may alter dynamics of populations in non-additive ways, making demographic predictions challenging when focusing on only one disturbance. Thus, understanding the interactive effects of such disturbances is critically important to determine the population viability of most species under a diversity of stressors. We used a hierarchical integral projection model (IPM), parameterized with 13 years of field data across 20 populations, encompassing 2435 individuals of an endangered herb, Liatris ohlingerae. We examined interactive effects of vertebrate herbivory, fire and anthropogenic activities (sand roads) on vital rates (e.g. survival, growth, reproduction, recruitment) and ultimately on population growth rates (λ), to test the hypothesis that interactions amplify or dampen differences in λ depending on environmental contexts. We constructed megamatrices to determine coupled dynamics in individuals damaged vs. not damaged by herbivores in roadsides and in Florida scrub with different times since fire. We identified strong interactive effects of fire with herbivory and habitat with herbivory on vital rates and on population growth rates in the IPM model. We also found different patterns of variation in λ between habitat and time-since-fire scenarios; population growth rates were higher in roadside populations compared to scrub populations and declined with increasing time since fire. Herbivory had interactive effects with both fire and human disturbances on λ. Herbivory resulted in decreased differences in λ due to anthropogenic disturbance and slightly increased differences in λ due to time since fire. Synthesis. The co-occurrence of various disturbances may both amplify and dampen the effects of other disturbances on population growth rate, thus shaping complex population dynamics that are neither linear nor additive. These realistic nonlinearities represent challenges in understanding and projecting of population dynamics. Here, we examined the effects of various sources of disturbance on the population dynamics of an endangered plant species, finding complex interactions affecting population growth rates. We argue that integration of multiple, interacting stressors in IPMs will allow more accurate estimation of the overall effects of ecological processes on species viability.

1. Female reproductive success is predicted to be simultaneously limited by the availability of pollen and resources. Selection on floral traits results from both factors, but their relative import ...

Long-term demographic data are needed for detailed viability analyses of populations threatened by climate change, but the infeasibility of obtaining such data makes it urgent to assess whether demographic responses to climatic variation can be generalized across populations and species. We used 32 years of demographic data on four species of closely related orchids (genera Dactylorhiza and Gymnadenia), replicated in a coastal and an inland region in central Norway, to test how demographic responses to climate varied among geographical regions and species. We fit generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to study climate effects on vital rates and included GLMMs as components in matrix models to examine climate effects on population dynamics. We found that, overall, vital rates and population growth rates of the eight populations responded independently to variation in both temperature and rainfall. Only probability of flowering showed expected regional differentiation in response to climate, despite notable regional climatic differences. Other vital rate – climate relationships were structured by species or a combination of both region and species. The weak clustering of demographic responses to climate variation by species and region demonstrates that effects of climatic variation can strongly depend on variation in local habitat and life history, even among closely related populations occupying similar niches. This highlights the difficulty in transferring data from closely related and/or located populations for viability analyses and for models predicting range shifts, and a general need to account for among-population variation in demographic responses to develop successful conservation and management plans.

North American amphibians have recently been impacted by two major emerging pathogens, the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and iridoviruses in the genus Ranavirus (Rv). Environmental factors and host genetics may play important roles in disease dynamics, but few studies incorporate both of these components into their analyses. Here, we investigated the role of environmental and genetic factors in driving Bd and Rv infection prevalence and severity in a biodiversity hot spot, the southeastern United States. We used quantitative PCR to characterize Bd and Rv dynamics in natural populations of three amphibian species: Notophthalmus perstriatus, Hyla squirella and Pseudacris ornata. We combined pathogen data, genetic diversity metrics generated from neutral markers, and environmental variables into general linear models to evaluate how these factors impact infectious disease dynamics. Occurrence, prevalence and intensity of Bd and Rv varied across species and populations, but only one species, Pseudacris ornata, harbored high Bd intensities in the majority of sampled populations. Genetic diversity and climate variables both predicted Bd prevalence, whereas climatic variables alone predicted infection intensity. We conclude that Bd is more abundant in the southeastern United States than previously thought and that genetic and environmental factors are both important for predicting amphibian pathogen dynamics. Incorporating both genetic and environmental information into conservation plans for amphibians is necessary for the development of more effective management strategies to mitigate the impact of emerging infectious diseases.