22 results on '"Mihailov, Alexander"'
Search Results
2. Inflation forecasting using the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with a time-varying trend
- Author
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McKnight, Stephen, Mihailov, Alexander, and Rumler, Fabio
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. Complex Systems Modeling of Community Inclusion Currencies
- Author
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Clark, Andrew, primary, Mihailov, Alexander, additional, and Zargham, Michael, additional
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. Do Real Balance Effects Invalidate the Taylor Principle in Closed and Open Economies?
- Author
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McKnight, Stephen and Mihailov, Alexander
- Published
- 2015
5. Complex Systems Modeling of Community Inclusion Currencies
- Author
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Clark, Andrew, Mihailov, Alexander, and Zargham, Michael
- Subjects
jel:E42, E51, D47, G23, G51, I38 ,Community Inclusion Currencies, Blockchain Technologies, Poverty Alleviation, Eliciting Utility Types, Complex Dynamic Systems, Subpopulation Simulation - Abstract
This paper proposes a complex dynamic system subpopulation model for the construction and validation of a novel form of local complementary currency, namely the Grassroots Economics Foundation’s Community Inclusion Currency (CIC) implemented recently in Kenya. First, we highlight that CICs can act as a local liquidity-provision institutional device in poor or isolated economic regions, thereby serving as a market-based mechanism to alleviate poverty. Second, we elicit 50 heterogeneous utility types according to observed transactions behavior in our rich data set, i.e., via revealed – and recorded – preferences, and build a corresponding model and simulation at a meso-economic level., Series: Working Paper Series / Institute for Cryptoeconomics / Interdisciplinary Research
- Published
- 2022
6. Rallying around the EU Flag: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine and Attitudes toward European Integration
- Author
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Steiner, Nils D., Berlinschi, Ruxanda, Farvaque, Étienne, Fidrmuc, Jan, Harms, Philipp, Mihailov, Alexander, Neugart, Michael, and Stanek, Piotr
- Subjects
N44 ,rally around the flag ,attitudes ,EU attitudes ,external threat ,Russia ,ddc:330 ,F02 ,H77 ,F50 ,European integration ,Ukraine ,F5 ,Z18 - Abstract
This paper uses a survey among students at European universities to explore whether Russia's invasion of Ukraine has affected attitudes toward European integration. Some respondents completed the survey just before Russia's assault on February 24, 2022, and some did so just afterwards, thus delivering a quasi-experimental design situation, which we exploit. Our results suggest that the ominous news about the Russian attack increased the participants' interest in EU politics, consolidated their attachment to the EU, and made them more mindful and appreciative of the benefits of deeper European integration. In effect, the war so close to the EU Eastern border provoked a rally around the supranational EU flag, with convergence of public opinion toward shared European values.
- Published
- 2022
7. Rallying around the EU flag: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and attitudes toward European integration.
- Author
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Steiner, Nils, Farvaque, Etienne, Harms, Philipp, Neugart, Michael, Berlinschi, Ruxanda, Fidrmuc, Jan, Mihailov, Alexander, and Stanek, Piotr
- Subjects
EUROPEAN integration ,POLITICAL science ,PUBLIC opinion - Abstract
This paper uses a survey among students at European universities to explore whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has affected attitudes toward European integration. Some respondents completed the survey just before Russia’s assault on February 24, 2022, and some did so just afterwards, thus delivering a quasi-experimental design situation, which we exploit. Our results suggest that the ominous news about the Russian attack increased the participants’ interest in EU politics, consolidated their attachment to the EU, and made them more mindful and appreciative of the benefits of deeper European integration. In effect, the war so close to the EU Eastern border provoked a rally around the supranational EU flag, with convergence of public opinion toward shared European values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
8. Complete Genome Sequence, Genome Stability and Phylogeny of the Vaccine Strain Mycobacterium bovis BCG SL222 Sofia
- Author
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Panaiotov, Stefan, primary, Hodzhev, Yordan, additional, Tolchkov, Vladimir, additional, Tsafarova, Borislava, additional, Mihailov, Alexander, additional, and Stefanova, Tzvetelina, additional
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
9. Operational independence, inflation targeting, and UK monetary policy
- Author
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Mihailov, Alexander
- Subjects
United Kingdom -- Economic aspects ,Inflation (Finance) -- Analysis ,Inflation (Finance) -- Forecasts and trends ,Inflation (Finance) -- United Kingdom ,Monetary policy -- Analysis ,Market trend/market analysis ,Business ,Economics - Abstract
The impact of United Kingdom monetary policy on inflation forecasting is examined.
- Published
- 2006
10. Complete Genome Sequence of Mycobacterium bovis BCG SL222 Sofia, the First WHO Reference Reagent for the M. bovis BCG Vaccine of the Russian BCG-I Substrain
- Author
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Panaiotov, Stefan, primary, Hodzhev, Yordan, additional, Tolchkov, Vladimir, additional, Mihailov, Alexander, additional, Kofinov, Roumen, additional, Kantardjiev, Todor, additional, and Stefanova, Tzvetelina, additional
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
11. Friedman rule
- Author
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Mihailov, Alexander, Rochon, Louis-Philippe, and Rossi, Sergio
- Subjects
ComputingMilieux_GENERAL ,ComputingMilieux_LEGALASPECTSOFCOMPUTING - Published
- 2015
12. Exchange-rate interventions
- Author
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Mihailov, Alexander, Rochon, Louis-Philippe, and Rossi, Sergio
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ComputingMilieux_GENERAL ,ComputingMilieux_LEGALASPECTSOFCOMPUTING - Published
- 2015
13. The Grand Experiment of Communism: Discovering the Trade-off between Equality and Efficiency
- Author
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Farvaque, Etienne, Mihailov, Alexander, and Naghavi, Alireza
- Subjects
SECS-P/01 Economia politica ,Quaderni - Working Paper DSE ,capitalism ,communism ,inequality ,inefficiency ,ideology transmission ,economic transitions - Abstract
This paper aims to explain the rise and fall of communism by exploring the interplay between economic incentives and social preferences transmitted by ideology. We introduce inequality-averse and inefficiency-averse agents and analyze their conflict through the interaction between leaders with economic power and followers with ideological determination. The socioeconomic dynamics of our model generate a pendulum-like switch from markets to a centrally-planned economy abolishing private ownership, and back to restoring market incentives. The grand experiment of communism is thus characterized to have led to the discovery of a trade-off between equality and efficiency at the scale of alternative economic systems. While our focus is on the long-run transitions from capitalism to communism and back observed in the course of the 20-th century, the model also derives conditions under which the two systems converge and become stable.
- Published
- 2012
14. The grand experiment of communism: Discovering the trade-off between equality and efficiency
- Author
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Farvaque, Etienne, Mihailov, Alexander, and Naghavi, Alireza
- Subjects
Economic Transitions ,C72 ,D83 ,Inequality ,ddc:330 ,P51 ,Ideological Transmission ,Capitalism ,D63 ,D74 ,D31 ,Inefficiency ,Communism - Abstract
This paper aims to explain the rise and fall of communism by exploring the interplay between economic incentives and social preferences transmitted by ideology. We introduce inequality-averse and inefficiency-averse agents and analyze their conflict through the interaction between leaders with economic power and followers with ideological determination. The socioeconomic dynamics of our model generate a pendulum-like switch from markets to a centrally-planned economy abolishing private ownership, and back to restoring market incentives. The grand experiment of communism is thus characterized to have led to the discovery of a trade-off between equality and efficiency at the scale of alternative economic systems. While our focus is on the long-run transitions from capitalism to communism and back observed in the course of the 20-th century, the model also derives conditions under which the two systems converge and become stable.
- Published
- 2011
15. Inflation Dynamics in the New EU Member States: How Relevant Are External Factors?
- Author
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Mihailov, Alexander, Rumler, Fabio, and Scharler, Johann
- Subjects
New-Keynesian Phillips Curve ,P22 ,EU-Staaten (Osteuropa) ,Momentenmethode ,New Keynesian Phillips Curve ,Inflation ,new EU member countries ,C52 ,GMM estimation ,Kleines-offenes-Land ,ddc:330 ,small open economies ,inflation dynamics ,C32 ,E31 ,F41 ,Schätzung - Abstract
In this paper we evaluate the relative influence of external versus domestic inflation drivers in the 12 new European Union (EU) member countries. Our empirical analysis is based on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) derived in Galí and Monacelli (2005) for small open economies (SOE). Employing the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), we find that the SOE NKPC is well supported in the new EU member states. We also find that the inflation process is dominated by domestic variables in the larger countries of our sample, whereas external variables are mostly relevant in the smaller countries.
- Published
- 2009
16. Intergenerational Transmission of Inflation Aversion: Theory and Evidence
- Author
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Farvaque, Etienne and Mihailov, Alexander
- Subjects
jel:D72 ,jel:D83 ,jel:H41 ,Intergenerational transmission, evolving preferences, inflation aversion, central bank independence, demographic change, income inequality ,jel:E31 ,intergenerational transmi ,evolving preferences ,inflation aversion ,central bank independence ,collective memory ,jel:E58 ,jel:J10 ,jel:E24 - Abstract
This paper studies the transmission of preferences in an overlapping-generations model with heterogeneous mature agents characterized by different degrees of inflation aversion. We show how the dynamics of a society's degree of inflation aversion and the implied degree of central bank independence depend on the direction and speed of changes in the structure of the population's preferences, themselves a function of parent socialization efforts in response to observed inflation. We then construct a survey-based measure of inflation aversion and provide empirical support for our analytical and simulation results. Available cross-section evidence confirms that a nation's demographic structure, in particular variation in the share of retirees as a proxy for the more inflation-averse type, is a key determinant of inflation aversion, together with experience with past inflation and the resulting collective memory embodied in monetary institutions.
- Published
- 2008
17. The Small Open-Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Empirical Evidence and Implied Inflation Dynamics
- Author
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Mihailov, Alexander, Rumler, Fabio, and Scharler, Johann
- Subjects
New-Keynesian Phillips Curve ,New Keynesian Phillips Curve ,OECD-Staaten ,C52 ,GMM estimation ,Kleines-offenes-Land ,terms of trade fluctuations ,ddc:330 ,small open economies ,inflation dynamics ,C32 ,E31 ,F41 ,Theorie - Abstract
This paper applies GMMestimation to assess empirically the small open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve derived in Galí and Monacelli (2005). We obtain a testable specification where fluctuations in the terms of trade enter explicitly, thus allowing a comparison of the relevance of domestic versus external determinants of CPI inflation dynamics. For most countries in our sample the expected relative change in the terms of trade emerges as a more relevant inflation driver than the contemporaneous domestic output gap. Overall, our results indicate some, albeit moderate, support for the tested relationship based on data from ten OECD countries typically classified as open economies.
- Published
- 2008
18. Independence and Accountability of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Committees
- Author
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Mihailov, Alexander and Ullrich, Katrin
- Subjects
expert committees ,E61 ,accountability ,330 Wirtschaft ,ddc:330 ,monetary policy ,institution design ,E58 ,Independence ,E63 ,E52 ,fiscal policy - Abstract
The democratic accountability of policymaking institutions which are autonomous within delegated mandates has not received as much attention as their independence. We analyze in a theoretical model the effects of accountability in the form of possible overriding of economic policy decisions by the government under different degrees of independence of expert committees conducting monetary and fiscal policy. The equilibrium outcomes of such alternative institution-design frameworks are compared according to key macroeconomic performance criteria. Our results stress the trade-off between anchoring inflation expectations on target and output stabilization that is not solved with accountability.
- Published
- 2007
19. Recent Developments in Macro-Econometric Modeling: Theory and Applications.
- Author
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Dufrénot, Gilles, Jawadi, Fredj, and Mihailov, Alexander
- Subjects
MACROECONOMIC models ,ECONOMIC development ,FINANCIAL crises ,STOCHASTIC analysis - Published
- 2018
- Full Text
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20. Money and exchange rates from a computational perspective
- Author
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Clark, Andrew, Mihailov, Alexander, and Reade, James
- Abstract
Money changes incrementally with technological growth. In this set of three papers, we examine money and exchange rates using practitioner technologies through an assessment exercise, a counterfactual exercise, and simulation modeling of a new application of monetary policy. APound-Centric Look at the Pound vs. Krona Exchange Rate Movement from 1844 to 1965 A longitudinal (1844-1965) assessment of the British pound sterling and Swedish krona exchange rate was constructed utilizing The London Times article news sentiment, gold price, gross domestic product, and other relevant metrics to create a dynamic system state-based model to predict the British pound sterling and Swedish krona yearly exchange rate. The model slightly outperforms a naive random walk forecasting model. Why Private Cryptocurrencies Cannot Serve as International Reserves but Central Bank Digital Currencies Can This chapter begins with a recap of Bitcoin and its primary motivation and mechanisms, followed by an overview of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. The focus is on cryptocurrency price dynamics and volatility relative to those of fiat money and gold, assets that have traditionally served the functions of money and as international reserves. Counterfactual analysis was performed using the Bank of England's foreign currency reserves to determine the hypothetical performance in terms of the relative volatility of two alternative reserve portfolios, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. Revisiting the functions of money and international reserves, it is outlined why private cryptocurrencies do not meet the requirements for both money and international reserve assets, whereas central bank digital currencies do meet these requirements. The chapter concludes with a discussion of areas 1where blockchain-based and financial innovations could be beneficial in international trade, payments, banking, and finance. Complex System Modeling of Community Currencies A complex dynamic system subpopulation model for the construction and validation of a novel form of local complementary currency is proposed, with the case study of Grassroots Economics Foundation's Community Inclusion Currency recently implemented in Kenya. The implementation is framed in an economic context and bridges the gap with related literature in computer science. Community currencies can act as a local liquidity-provision institutional device in poor or isolated economic regions to increase their internal exchange and economic value-added, serving as a market-based mechanism to alleviate poverty.
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
21. Effects of macroeconomic shocks on unemployment rates across the Euro area
- Author
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Wang, Zhe, Mihailov, Alexander, and Razzu, Giovanni
- Abstract
This thesis studies the effects of macroeconomic shocks on unemployment rates across the Euro Area (EA) over the course of a whole business cycle. It consists of three main chapters. Chapter 1 focuses on identifying whether common monetary policy shocks conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB) have effects on national unemployment rates in the member-states of the European Monetary Union (EMU), and how heterogenous the effects are. Chapter 2 examines the extent to which the effects of shocks on unemployment are intermediated by various labor market institutions associated with each of the EA national economies. Chapter 3 looks at gender unemployment differences, asking whether an adverse shock leads to a larger increase in the unemployment rate for females relative to males, taking into account the role of labor market institutions. Heterogeneous effects of single monetary policy on unemployment rates in the largest EMU countries Employing the baseline New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with unemployment developed by Galí-Smets-Wouters (2012), we explore the potential heterogeneous effects of the single monetary policy conducted by the ECB on unemployment rates in a monetary union. More specifically, we compare the Bayesian estimates and the implied macro-dynamics using quarterly data for the time period 1999Q1-2017Q4 in the largest EMU countries, namely, France, Germany, Italy and Spain, which also represent four different trends in European unemployment. The results uncover that ECB monetary policy shocks are likely to play an important role in driving fluctuations in national unemployment rates in our EMU sample, not only in the short run but also in the medium and long run. Moreover, the heterogeneity in the effect of ECB monetary policy on unemployment rates is evident in two aspects: first, the unemployment rate increases in all four EMU countries in response to the tightening of monetary policy but with various degrees of dynamic responses in terms of elasticity and persistence. Spain is the most affected, while the effects in France are twice lower, and Germany and Italy fall in-between. Second, the common Zero Lower Bound monetary policy of the post-crisis period manifests itself differently in countries characterized by "low debt-low risk premium" from countries characterized by "high debt-high risk premium": for instance, it results in a reduced unemployment rate in France and Germany but an increased unemployment rate in Italy and Spain. Unemployment across the Euro Area: the role of shocks and labor market institutions Heterogeneity in unemployment trends across the EA is most likely determined by the inherited diversity of national labor market institutions and mechanisms. Based on a panel data set of 11 EA countries over the period 1999-2013, this chapter empirically analyses the direct effects of shocks and labor market institutions on unemployment, on the one hand, and the indirect effects of labor market institutions on changing the transmission of shocks to unemployment, on the other hand. The shocks consist of: 1) total factor productivity shocks, 2) the real long-term interest rate, 3) labor demand shocks, 4) ECB money supply shocks and 5) ECB unsystematic monetary policy shocks. The labor market institutions cover the unemployment benefit system, active labor market policies, employment protection laws, the system of wage determination and the labor tax wedge. The results suggest that the real interest rate and labor demand shocks significantly affect the unemployment rate in the EA. As for labor market institutions, strict employment protection laws play a favorable role, correlated with a reduction in unemployment. In contrast, a higher tax wedge tends to have an adverse effect on unemployment, not only directly increasing unemployment but also indirectly amplifying the effects of shocks on unemployment. Macroeconomic shocks and the gender unemployment gap across the Euro Area This chapter aims at shedding light on whether some demographic groups are more likely to be unemployed in response to adverse shocks. Using data from 11 EA countries over the 2000-2013 period, we first examine the impact of shocks on unemployment rates by gender. The shocks include the rate of productivity growth, the real long-term interest rate, labor demand shocks, and monetary policy shocks. Second, we further disaggregate gendered unemployment rates by age, marital status, and education, and investigate the impact of shocks on unemployment rates of various demographic groups across the EA. We find that reductions in labor demand are associated with a relatively larger increase in unemployment rates for women, particularly for young and less-educated women. Similarly and more notably, a contractionary monetary policy is significantly correlated with a rise in the female unemployment rate, while it does not show any significant impact on the male unemployment rate.
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
22. The Grand Experiment of Communism: Discovering the Trade-off between Equality and Efficiency
- Author
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Alireza Naghavi, Etienne Farvaque, Alexander Mihailov, Economie Quantitative, Intégration, Politiques Publiques et Econométrie ( EQUIPPE ), Université de Lille, Sciences et Technologies-Université de Lille, Sciences Humaines et Sociales-PRES Université Lille Nord de France-Université de Lille, Droit et Santé, Lille - Economie et Management ( LEM ), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Université catholique de Lille ( UCL ) -Université de Lille, University of Reading ( UOR ), Università di Bologna [Bologna] ( UNIBO ), Economie Quantitative, Intégration, Politiques Publiques et Econométrie (EQUIPPE), Université de Lille, Droit et Santé-PRES Université Lille Nord de France-Université de Lille, Sciences Humaines et Sociales-Université de Lille, Sciences et Technologies, Lille économie management - UMR 9221 (LEM), Université d'Artois (UA)-Université catholique de Lille (UCL)-Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Reading (UOR), Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna [Bologna] (UNIBO), Farvaque, Etienne, Mihailov, Alexander, and Naghavi, Alireza
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Inequality ,060106 history of social sciences ,media_common.quotation_subject ,jel:D63 ,jel:D83 ,Social preferences ,[SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences ,0502 economics and business ,[ SHS ] Humanities and Social Sciences ,Economics ,[ SHS.ECO ] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economies and finances ,0601 history and archaeology ,050207 economics ,communism, inequality, inefficiency, ideology transmission, economic system transitions ,Communism ,ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS ,050205 econometrics ,media_common ,jel:D74 ,05 social sciences ,jel:C72 ,06 humanities and the arts ,jel:D31 ,Capitalism ,[SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance ,jel:P51 ,Incentive ,8. Economic growth ,capitalism ,communism ,inequality ,inefficiency ,ideological transmission ,economic transitions ,Ideology ,Economic system ,capitalism, communism, inequality, inefficiency, ideological transmission, economic transititions ,Inefficiency ,Capitalism, Communism, Inequality, Inefficiency, Ideological Transmission, Economic Transitions ,Economic power - Abstract
This paper aims to explain the rise and fall of communism by exploring the interplay between economic incentives and social preferences transmitted by ideology. We introduce inequality-averse and inefficiency-averse agents and analyze their conflict through the interaction between leaders with economic power and followers with ideological determination. The socioeconomic dynamics of our model generate a pendulum-like switch from markets to a centrally-planned economy abolishing private ownership, and back to restoring market incentives. The grand experiment of communism is thus characterized to have led to the discovery of a trade-off between equality and efficiency at the scale of alternative economic systems. While our focus is on the long-run transitions from capitalism to communism and back observed in the course of the 20-th century, the model also derives conditions under which the two systems converge and become stable.
- Published
- 2011
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