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During Covid-19 pandemic world economy experienced negative growth rate, therefore energy consumption and consequently emission pollution decreased. According to Environmental Kuznets Curve, it is expected that energy consumption and emission pollution increase in response to Covid-19 economic recovery, even higher than its pre-pandemic level. The goal of this paper is to study the environmental risk of Covid-19 economic recovery. We use an Environmentally-Augmented Global Vector Autoregressive Model (E-GVAR) to trace dynamic effects of Covid-19 economic recovery on pollution emission. Using generalized impulse response functions (GIRFs), we investigated the effect of positive economic shocks in real per capita income in China and USA economies on total [Formula: see text] equivalent emission pollution. The results show that positive economic recovery affects emission pollution significantly. China and emerging economies may experience high risk while Europe region is moderately affected by this positive shock. A positive Economic Shock in China decrease pollution emission in USA over time. It can be attributed to substitution effect of Chinese product in global market. Generally, our results demonstrate spillover effect of transition shocks from large economies to the rest of world and highlights the importance of linkages in the world economy.

Investigate the causes of changing the oil price and modeling for predicting its volatility has always been one of the most important fields of Iran's economic literature study due to its position in Iran's economy. On the other hand, oil price volatility lead to the difficulty in the development programs. Empirical studies show that oil prices volatility are caused the structural bottlenecks (trade balance bottleneck, budget bottlenecks, etc.) in Iran's economic.Understanding the mechanism of oil prices formation can reduce the risk of oil price volatility and its negative impacts on Iran's economy. With the development of oil bourse and oil futures market, oil market changed the crude oil price formation so that the cash flow between financial markets and oil market will deviant the crude oil price from its long term direction by changing in interest rate in short-term. In this paper, it is investigated the crude oil price deviation from its long-term direction with regard to the relationship between mentioned markets in short-term. For this purpose, Fisher price jump model and Frankel theory will be used for test by using daily time series data of 2005-13 about Iran's light crude oil in different areas (different markets), as well as multivariate GARCH technique method. Also, the results show that the pricing strategy is false signal in the use of Urals crude oil in the determining of crude oil price in the Mediterranean and North West Europe markets.

This paper investigates the effect of oil income on real exchange rate defined as relative prices of non-tradable to tradable sector in Iranian economy. Increase in oil income, increases demand for both tradable and no-tradable goods. Tradable goods prices follow international prices while non-tradable prices are set in domestic markets. Therefore increase in oil income will result in real exchange rate appreciation and change in resource allocation in different economic sectors. Oil windfalls have changed the structure of the economy and relative prices such that the shares of agriculture and industry have decreased and the shares of services and construction have increased in GDP. The results show that there is a long run co-integration relation between oil income, capital outflow, GDP and real exchange rate.