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Energy modelling is the process of using mathematical models to develop abstractions and then seek insights into future energy systems. It can be an abstract academic activity. Or, it can insert threads that influence our development. We argue therefore, that energy modelling that provides policy support (EMoPS) should not only be grounded in rigorous analytics, but also in good governance principles. As, together with other policy actions, it should be accountable. Almost all aspects of society and much of its impact on the environment are influenced by our use of energy. In this context, EMoPS can inspire, motivate, calibrate, and ‘post assess’ energy policy. But, such modeling is often undertaken by too few analysts under time and resource pressure. Building on the advances of ‘class leaders’, we propose that EMoPS should reach for practical goals — including engagement and accountability with the communities it involves, and those it will later affect. (We use the term Ubuntu, meaning ‘I am because you are’ to capture this interdependency). We argue that Ubuntu, together with retrievability, repeatability, reconstructability, interoperability and auditability (U4RIA) of EMoPS should be used to signal the beginnings of a new default practice. We demonstrate how the U4RIA principles can contribute in practice using recent modelling of aspirational energy futures by Costa Rica as a case study. This modelling effort includes community involvement and interfaces and integrates stakeholder involvement. It leaves a trail that allows for its auditing and accountability, while building capacity and sustainable institutional memory.

Climate and cryospheric observations have shown that the high Arctic has experienced several decades of rapid environmental change, with warming rates well above the global average. In this study, we address the hypothesis that this climatic warming affects deep, ice-covered lakes in the region by causing abrupt, threshold-dependent shifts rather than slow, continuous responses. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data show that lakes (one freshwater and four permanently stratified) on Ellesmere Island at the far northern coastline of Canada have experienced significant reductions in summer ice cover over the last decade. The stratified lakes were characterized by strong biogeochemical gradients, yet temperature and salinity profiles of their upper water columns (5-20 m) indicated recent mixing, consistent with loss of their perennial ice and exposure to wind. Although subject to six decades of warming at a rate of 0.5°C decade -1 , these lakes were largely unaffected until a regime shift in air temperature in the 1980s and 1990s, when warming crossed a critical threshold forcing the loss of ice cover. This transition from perennial to annual ice cover caused another regime shift whereby previously stable upper water columns were subjected to mixing. Far northern lakes are responding discontinuously to climate-driven change via a cascade of regime shifts and have an indicator value beyond the regional scale.

We profiled five ice-covered lakes and two ice-covered fiords of Ellesmere Island at the northern limit of High Arctic Canada to examine their environmental characteristics, and to evaluate the long-term limnological consequences of changes in their surrounding landscape through time (landscape evolution). All of the ecosystems showed strong patterns of thermal, chemical, and biological stratification with subsurface temperature maxima from 0.75 to 12.15 °C; conductivities up to 98.1 mS cm–1 (twice that of seawater) in some bottom waters; pronounced gradients in nitrogen, phosphorus, pH, dissolved inorganic and organic carbon, manganese, iron, and oxygen; and stratified photo synthetic communities. These ecosystems form an inferred chronosequence that reflects different steps of landscape evolution including marine embayments open to the sea, inlets blocked by thick sea ice (Disraeli Fiord, Taconite Inlet), perennially ice-capped, saline lakes isolated from the sea by isostatic uplift (Lakes A, C1, C2), and isolated lakes that lose their ice cover in summer. The latter are subject to entrainment of saline water into their upper water column by wind-induced mixing (Lake Romulus; Lake A in 2000), or complete flushing of their basins by dilute snowmelt (Lake C3 and Char Lake, which lies 650 km to the south of the Ellesmere lakes region). This chronosequence illustrates how changes in geomorphology and other landscape properties may influence the limnology of coastal, high-latitude lakes, and it provides a framework to explore the potential impacts of climate change.