Search

Background Interval breast cancers (BC) are those diagnosed within 24 months of a negative mammogram. This study estimates the odds of being diagnosed with high-severity BC among screen-detected, interval, and other symptom-detected BC (no screening history within 2 years); and explores factors associated with being diagnosed with interval BC. Methods Telephone interviews and self-administered questionnaires were conducted among women (n = 3,326) diagnosed with BC in 2010–2013 in Queensland. Respondents were categorised into screen-detected, interval, and other symptom-detected BCs. Data were analysed using logistic regressions with multiple imputation. Results Compared with screen-detected BC, interval BC had higher odds of late-stage (OR = 3.50, 2.9–4.3), high-grade (OR = 2.36, 1.9–2.9) and triple-negative cancers (OR = 2.55, 1.9–3.5). Compared with other symptom-detected BC, interval BC had lower odds of late stage (OR = 0.75, 0.6–0.9), but higher odds of triple-negative cancers (OR = 1.68, 1.2–2.3). Among women who had a negative mammogram (n = 2,145), 69.8% were diagnosed at their next mammogram, while 30.2% were diagnosed with an interval cancer. Those with an interval cancer were more likely to have healthy weight (OR = 1.37, 1.1–1.7), received hormone replacement therapy (2–10 years: OR = 1.33, 1.0–1.7; > 10 years: OR = 1.55, 1.1–2.2), conducted monthly breast self-examinations (BSE) (OR = 1.66, 1.2–2.3) and had previous mammogram in a public facility (OR = 1.52, 1.2–2.0). Conclusion These results highlight the benefits of screening even among those with an interval cancer. Women-conducted BSE were more likely to have interval BC which may reflect their increased ability to notice symptoms between screening intervals.

Spatial modelling of cancer survival is an important tool for identifying geographic disparities and providing an evidence base for resource allocation. Many different approaches have attempted to understand how survival varies geographically. This is the first scoping review to describe different methods and visualization techniques and to assess temporal trends in publications. The review was carried out using the PRISMA guideline using PubMed and Web of Science databases. Two authors independently screened articles. Articles were eligible for review if they measured cancer survival outcomes in small geographical areas by using spatial regression and/or mapping. Thirty-two articles were included, and the number increased over time. Most articles have been conducted in high-income countries using cancer registry databases. Eight different methods of modelling spatial survival were identified, and there were seven different ways of visualizing the results. Increasing the use of spatial modelling through enhanced data availability and knowledge sharing could help inform and motivate efforts to improve cancer outcomes and reduce excess deaths due to geographical inequalities. Efforts to improve the coverage and completeness of population-based cancer registries should continue to be a priority, in addition to encouraging the open sharing of relevant statistical programming syntax and international collaborations.

Background: This study quantified differences in remaining life expectancy (RLE) among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and other Australian patients with cancer. We assessed how much of this disparity was due to differences in cancer and noncancer mortality and calculated the population gain in life years for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders cancer diagnoses if the cancer survival disparities were removed. Methods: Flexible parametric relative survival models were used to estimate RLE by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander status for a population-based cohort of 709,239 persons (12,830 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders), 2005 to 2016. Results: For all cancers combined, the average disparity in RLE was 8.0 years between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders (12.0 years) and other Australians (20.0 years). The magnitude of this disparity varied by cancer type, being >10 years for cervical cancer versus Conclusions: A cancer diagnosis exacerbates the existing disparities in RLE among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders. Addressing them will require consideration of both cancer-related factors and those contributing to noncancer mortality. Impact: Reported survival-based measures provided additional insights into the overall impact of cancer over a lifetime horizon among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.

Estimates of childhood cancer survival are usually reported at 5 years after diagnosis only. Using cases prevalent between 2014 and 2018 from the population-based Australian Childhood Cancer Registry, we used the period method to calculate relative survival up to 20 years post diagnosis by cancer type. Twenty-year relative survival for all childhood cancers combined (n = 14,353) was 83.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 82.6%-85.0%). Survival decreased only slightly after 10 years for most childhood cancers, except for some types of brain and liver tumours. These contemporary estimates of long-term survival provide valuable information to assist childhood cancer patients and their families in planning for the future.

Rare cancers collectively account for around a quarter of cancer diagnoses and deaths. However, epidemiological studies are sparse. We describe spatial and geographical patterns in incidence and survival of rare cancers across Australia using a population-based cancer registry cohort of rare cancer cases diagnosed among Australians aged at least 15 years, 2007 to 2016. Rare cancers were defined using site- and histology-based categories from the European RARECARE study, as individual cancer types having crude annual incidence rates of less than 6/100 000. Incidence and survival patterns were modelled with generalised linear and Bayesian spatial Leroux models. Spatial heterogeneity was tested using the maximised excess events test. Rare cancers (n = 268 070) collectively comprised 22% of all invasive cancer diagnoses and accounted for 27% of all cancer-related deaths in Australia, 2007 to 2016 with an overall 5-year relative survival of around 53%. Males and those living in more remote or more disadvantaged areas had higher incidence but lower survival. There was substantial evidence for spatial variation in both incidence and survival for rare cancers between small geographical areas across Australia, with similar patterns so that those areas with higher incidence tended to have lower survival. Rare cancers are a substantial health burden in Australia. Our study has highlighted the need to better understand the higher burden of these cancers in rural and disadvantaged regions where the logistical challenges in their diagnosis, treatment and support are magnified.

Objective Despite Australia’s National Cervical Screening Program, Indigenous women have a disproportionately high burden of cervical cancer. We describe temporal and area-level patterns in prevalence of histologically conformed high-grade cervical abnormalities (hHGA) among cytologically screened women by Indigenous status. Methods This was a population-based study of 2,132,925 women, aged 20–69, who underwent cervical screening between 2008 and 2017, in Queensland, Australia. Of these, 47,136 were identified as Indigenous from linked hospital records. Overall patterns in hHGA prevalence by Indigenous status were quantified using prevalence rate ratios (PrRR) from negative binomial models. Bayesian spatial models were used to obtain smoothed prevalence estimates of hHGA across 528 small areas compared to the state average. Results are presented as maps and graphs showing the associated uncertainty of the estimates. Results Overall, screened Indigenous women had significantly higher hHGA prevalence than non-Indigenous women. However, the magnitude of the difference reduced over time ( p Conclusions While the temporal reduction in Indigenous: non-Indigenous differential in hHGA prevalence is encouraging, further research into the key drivers of the continuing higher risk among Indigenous women is warranted.

Dear Editor, Despite overall favourable prognosis, thin (≤ 1·0 mm) cutaneous melanomas account for 23% of melanoma deaths in the high-risk general population of Queensland, Australia (2005–2009), because of the sheer volume of disease. The prospect of adjuvant systemic therapy has increased the focus on identifying patients with thin melanoma who are at high risk of death, such as through gene expression profiling (GEP), sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) or prognostic models.

Background The literature surrounding survival of patients with multiple primary melanomas (MPM) yields variable and opposing findings, constrained by statistical challenges. Objectives To critically examine the available literature regarding survival of patients with MPM compared with a single primary melanoma and detail statistical methods used. Methods Electronic searches were performed of PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Scopus, with cross-checking of references, for the period January 1956 to June 2019. Studies published in English examining survival in patients with multiple melanomas were included. Case studies and small case series were excluded. Results There were 14 studies eligible for inclusion. Conclusions on survival varied markedly depending on the statistical method used. Four studies that accounted for survival bias by partitioning the survival time were included in the quantitative review, with 3 of these reporting a survival disadvantage for MPM, whereas the fourth showed no difference in survival. The pooled hazard ratio was 1.39 (95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.81) but with significant heterogeneity (I2 = 96.8%, Phet Limitations Studies showed significant heterogeneity in methodology. Conclusion When data were analyzed with robust statistical methods, patients with MPM had a survival disadvantage compared with patients with a single primary melanoma.

Background: Thyroid cancer incidence has increased in many parts of the world since the 1980s, as has the prevalence of obesity. Evidence suggests that people with greater body size have higher thy...

BackgroundCancer atlases often provide estimates of cancer incidence, mortality or survival across small areas of a region or country. A recent example of a cancer atlas is the Australian cancer atlas (ACA), that provides interactive maps to visualise spatially smoothed estimates of cancer incidence and survival for 20 different cancer types over 2148 small areas across Australia.MethodsThe present study proposes a multivariate Bayesian meta-analysis model, which can model multiple cancers jointly using summary measures without requiring access to the unit record data. This new approach is illustrated by modelling the publicly available spatially smoothed standardised incidence ratios for multiple cancers in the ACA divided into three groups: common, rare/less common and smoking-related. The multivariate Bayesian meta-analysis models are fitted to each group in order to explore any possible association between the cancers in three remoteness regions: major cities, regional and remote areas across Australia. The correlation between the pairs of cancers included in each multivariate model for a group was examined by computing the posterior correlation matrix for each cancer group in each region. The posterior correlation matrices in different remoteness regions were compared using Jennrich’s test of equality of correlation matrices (Jennrich in J Am Stat Assoc. 1970;65(330):904–12.10.1080/01621459.1970.10481133).ResultsSubstantive correlation was observed among some cancer types. There was evidence that the magnitude of this correlation varied according to remoteness of a region. For example, there has been significant negative correlation between prostate and lung cancer in major cities, but zero correlation found in regional and remote areas for the same pair of cancer types. High risk areas for specific combinations of cancer types were identified and visualised from the proposed model.ConclusionsPublicly available spatially smoothed disease estimates can be used to explore additional research questions by modelling multiple cancer types jointly. These proposed multivariate meta-analysis models could be useful when unit record data are unavailable because of privacy and confidentiality requirements.

Purpose This study explores factors that are associated with the severity of breast cancer (BC) at diagnosis. Methods Interviews were conducted among women (n = 3326) aged 20–79 diagnosed with BC between 2011 and 2013 in Queensland, Australia. High-severity cancers were defined as either Stage II–IV, Grade 3, or having negative hormone receptors at diagnosis. Logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) of high severity BC for variables relating to screening, lifestyle, reproductive habits, family history, socioeconomic status, and area disadvantage. Results Symptom-detected women had greater odds (OR 3.38, 2.86–4.00) of being diagnosed with high-severity cancer than screen-detected women. Women who did not have regular mammograms had greater odds (OR 1.78, 1.40–2.28) of being diagnosed with high-severity cancer than those who had mammograms biennially. This trend was significant in both screen-detected and symptom-detected women. Screen-detected women who were non-smokers (OR 1.77, 1.16–2.71), postmenopausal (OR 2.01, 1.42–2.84), or employed (OR 1.46, 1.15–1.85) had greater odds of being diagnosed with high-severity cancer than those who were current smokers, premenopausal, or unemployed. Symptom-detected women being overweight (OR 1.67, 1.31–2.14), postmenopausal (OR 2.01, 1.43–2.82), had hormone replacement therapy (HRT) 10 years. Conclusion Screen-detected women and women who had mammograms biennially had lower odds of being diagnosed with high-severity breast cancer, which highlighted the benefit of regular breast cancer screening. Women in subgroups who are more likely to have more severe cancers should be particularly encouraged to participate in regular mammography screening.

Background: This study quantifies the number of potentially “avoided”cancer deaths due to differences in 10-year relative survival between three time periods, reflecting temporal improvements in cancer diagnostic and/or treatment practices in Australia. Methods: National population-based cohort of 2,307,565 Australians ages 15 to 89 years, diagnosed with a primary invasive cancer from 1985 to 2014 with mortality follow-up to December 31, 2015. Excess mortality rates and crude probabilities of cancer deaths were estimated using flexible parametric relative survival models. Crude probabilities were then used to calculate “avoided cancer deaths” (reduced number of cancer deaths within 10 years of diagnosis due to survival changes since 1985–1994) for all cancers and 13 leading cancer types. Results: For each cancer type, excess mortality (in the cancer cohort vs. the expected population mortality) was significantly lower for more recently diagnosed persons. For all cancers combined, the number of “avoided cancer deaths” (vs. 1985–1994) was 4,877 (1995–2004) and 11,385 (2005–2014) among males. Prostate (1995–2004: 2,144; 2005–2014: 5,099) and female breast cancer (1,127 and 2,048) had the highest number of such deaths, whereas Conclusions: Screening and early detection likely contributed to the high number of “avoided cancer deaths” for prostate and female breast cancer, whereas early detection remains difficult for lung and pancreatic cancers, highlighting the need for improved preventive and screening measures. Impact: Absolute measures such as “avoided cancer deaths” can provide a more tangible estimate of the improvements in cancer survival than standard net survival measures.

Background: With the improvements in cancer diagnosis and treatment, more patients with cancer are surviving for longer periods than before. This study aims to quantify the proportion cured and median survival time for those who are not cured for major cancers in Australia. Methods: Australian population-based cohort of 2,164,172 cases, ages 15 to 89 years, whose first cancer diagnosis between 1982 and 2014 was one of 22 leading cancers, were followed up to December 2014. Flexible parametric cure models were used to estimate the proportion cured and median survival time for those uncured by age, sex, and spread of disease, and temporal trends in these measures. Results: Cure estimates could be generated for 19 of the 22 cancer types. The unadjusted proportion cured ranged from 5.0% for pancreatic cancer to 90.0% for melanoma. Median survival time for those uncured ranged from 0.35 years for pancreatic cancer to 6.05 years for prostate cancer. Cancers were divided into four groups according to their proportion cured in the 1980s and the degree of improvement over 28 years. Esophageal, stomach, pancreatic, liver, gallbladder, lung, and brain cancer had lower proportion cured and smaller improvements over time. Conclusions: For cancers with poor survival in which little has changed over time either in prolonging life or achieving statistical cure, efforts should be focused on reducing the prevalence of known risk factors and earlier detection, thereby enabling more effective treatment. Impact: Cure models provide unique insights into whether survival improvements are due to prolonging life or through curing the disease.

There is little long-term follow-up information about how the number of melanoma deaths and case fatality vary over time according to the measured thickness of melanoma at diagnosis. This population-based longitudinal cohort study examines patterns and trends in case fatality among 44,531 people in Queensland (Australia) diagnosed with a single invasive melanoma (International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third revision [ICD-O-3], C44, Morphology 872-879) between 1987 and 2011, including 11,883 diagnosed between 1987 and 1996, with up to 20 years follow-up (to December 2016). The 20-year case fatality increased by thickness, with the percentage of melanoma deaths within 20 years of diagnosis being up to 4.8% for melanomas with measured thickness

Large improvements in childhood cancer survival have been reported over recent decades. Data from cancer registries have the advantage of providing a 'whole of population' approach to gauge the success of cancer control efforts.The aim of this study was to investigate recent survival estimates for children diagnosed with cancer Australia and to examine the extent of changes in survival over the last 35 years. For the first time, we also estimated the number of deaths among Australian children that were potentially avoided due to improvements in survival.A retrospective, population-based cohort study design was used. Case information was extracted from the Australian Childhood Cancer Registry for 1983-2016, with follow-up to 31 December 2017. Eligible children were aged 0-14 with a basis of diagnosis other than autopsy or death certificate only. Five-year relative survival was calculated using the semi-complete cohort method for three diagnosis periods (1983-1994, 1995-2006 and 2007-2016), and changes in survival over time were assessed via flexible parametric models. Avoided deaths within 5 years for those diagnosed between 1995 and 2016 were estimated under the assumption that survival rates remained the same as for 1983-1994.Overall 5-year survival within the study cohort (n = 20,871) increased from 72.8% between 1983 and1994 to 86.1% between 2007 and 2016, equating to an adjusted excess mortality hazard ratio of 1.82 (95% confidence interval 1.67, 1.97). Most cancers showed improvements in survival; other gliomas, hepatoblastoma and osteosarcoma were exceptions. Among children diagnosed between 1995 and 2016, 38.7% of expected deaths within 5 years of diagnosis (n = 1537 of 3970) were avoided due to temporal improvements in survival.Survival for childhood cancer has continued to improve over recent years, thanks mainly to ongoing progress in treatment development combined with improved supportive care. Providing innovative measures of survival, such as avoided deaths, may assist with understanding outcome data produced by cancer registries.

Purpose The purpose of the study is to assess the global risk of extracolonic secondary primary cancers (SPCs) in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). Methods Studies of SPC in patients with CRC were included if they reported the standardised incidence ratio (SIR) for extracolonic SPCs in patients with CRC compared with the general population. Pooled summary estimates were calculated using a random-effects model. Results A total of 7,716,750 patients with CRC from 13 retrospective cohort studies that reported extracolonic SPC incidence were included. The overall risk of several SPCs was significantly higher in patients with CRC compared with the general population, including cancers of the urinary bladder (pooled SIR 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06–1.33; p = 0.003), female genital tract (1.88, 1.07–3.31; p = 0.03), kidney (1.50, 1.19–1.89; p = 0.0007), thorax (lung, bronchus and mediastinum) (1.16, 1.01–1.32; p = 0.03), small intestine (4.26, 2.58–7.01; p p = 0.003), and thyroid (1.40, 1.28–1.53; p p = 0.04). There was also a decreased risk of developing cancer of the gall bladder (0.75, 0.60–0.94; p = 0.01). Conclusion Patients with CRC had a significantly increased risk of extracolonic SPCs compared with the general population. These findings highlight the need to develop research strategies for the management of second primary cancer in patients with CRC.

There is growing evidence suggesting that text-message-based interventions are effective to promote sun protection behaviors. However, it is still unclear how engagement and adherence with the intervention messages can be optimized through intervention design. This study evaluated the effect of different combinations of personalized and two-way interactive messages on participant engagement with a theory-based skin cancer prevention intervention. In the SunText study conducted in February–July 2019 in Queensland, Australia participants 18–40 years were randomized to four different text message schedules using a Latin square design. This study analyzed if the order and intensity in which the schedules were received were associated with participants’ level of engagement, and if this differed by demographic factors. Out of the 389 participants enrolled in the study, 375 completed the intervention period and remained for analysis. The overall intervention engagement rate was 71% and decreased from the beginning to the end of the study (82.2%–61.4%). The group starting with personalized, but not interactive messaging showed the lowest engagement rate. The intervention involving interactive messages three times a week for 4 weeks achieved the highest engagement rate. The intervention with increasing frequency (personalized and interactive three times a week for 2 weeks; then daily for 2 weeks) had lower engagement than intervention with constant or decreasing frequency. Engagement with two-way interactive messages was high across all intervention groups. Results suggest enhanced engagement with constant or decreasing message frequency compared to increasing frequency.

Background Myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are a relatively new group of blood cancers arising from genetic mutations in haematopoietic stem cells. Diagnostic delay is associated with thromboses, strokes and heart attacks. We investigated geographic variation in diagnosis and survival for classic MPNs. Methods Data for classic MPNs were obtained from the Australian Cancer Database. Leroux spatial models for incidence and survival were fitted using CARBayes, WinBUGS via R and tests for spatial clustering were conducted. Results The age-standardised incidence rate was 4.9 (95% CI: 4.8-5.0) per 100,000 person-years during 2007-2016 with relative survival of 78% (77%, 79%) at 5 years after diagnosis. Strong evidence of spatial variation in incidence was observed (p Differences between states and territories could not be explained by population rates of genetic testing or the proportion of registered cases with histological evidence. Conclusions Stark spatial differences in incidence rates of classic MPNs suggest that varying diagnosis and registration patterns between states results in under-recognition, and potentially undertreatment. It is imperative that reporting is consistent so that sound evidence is available for efforts to reduce disparities in diagnosis and management. Key messages Early identification of MPNs is crucial, however, strong spatial geographical variation in incidence rates suggest diagnostic and notification practices may not be consistent across the country.

Background While relative survival is commonly used to describe cancer prognosis, its interpretation remains confusing. Alternative measures provide additional insights into the survival experience of Australian cancer patients. Methods Population-based cohort of over 2 million Australians diagnosed with 19 types of primary invasive cancer from 1982 to 2014 with mortality follow-up to 31 December 2015. Flexible parametric survival models were used to estimate loss of life expectancy, avoidable cancer deaths, crude survival, probability of cure and survival of uncured population for cancers diagnosed in Australia. Results There has been an overall decrease in the loss of life expectancy caused by a cancer diagnosis. Australians diagnosed in 2014 will gain an extra 432,588 life years due to the improvement in relative survival since 1982. Similarly, 29% (females) and 40% (males) of expected cancer deaths among the 2005-2014 cohort will be avoided compared to the 1985-1994 cohort. While the 10- year crude probability of cancer deaths decreased over time, patterns varied by cancer type. The crude probability of competing deaths increased with age. Between 1982 and 2009, the cure proportion increased significantly for all cancers. Conclusion Alternative measures of survival may help communicate the reducing impact that a cancer diagnosis has on average life expectancy. Key messages The growing number of Australian cancer survivors can pose emerging challenges to these patients, their caregivers, medical professionals and health-care systems in accessing or providing evidence-based survivorship and psychosocial care after a cancer diagnosis.

OBJECTIVES: To describe changes in childhood cancer incidence in Australia, 1983-2015, and to estimate projected incidence to 2035.DESIGN, SETTING: Population-based study; analysis of Australian Childhood Cancer Registry data for the 20 547 children under 15 years of age diagnosed with cancer in Australia between 1983 and 2015.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence rate changes during 1983-2015 were assessed by joinpoint regression, with rates age-standardised to the 2001 Australian standard population. Incidence projections to 2035 were estimated by age-period-cohort modelling.RESULTS: The overall age-standardised incidence rate of childhood cancer increased by 34% between 1983 and 2015, increasing by 1.2% (95% CI, +0.5% to +1.9%) per annum between 2005 and 2015. During 2011-2015, the mean annual number of children diagnosed with cancer in Australia was 770, an incidence rate of 174 cases (95% CI, 169-180 cases) per million children per year. The incidence of hepatoblastoma (annual percentage change [APC], +2.3%; 95% CI, +0.8% to +3.8%), Burkitt lymphoma (APC, +1.6%; 95% CI, +0.4% to +2.8%), osteosarcoma (APC, +1.1%; 95%, +0.0% to +2.3%), intracranial and intraspinal embryonal tumours (APC, +0.9%; 95% CI, +0.4% to +1.5%), and lymphoid leukaemia (APC, +0.5%; 95% CI, +0.2% to +0.8%) increased significantly across the period 1983-2015. The incidence rate of childhood melanoma fell sharply between 1996 and 2015 (APC, -7.7%; 95% CI, -10% to -4.8%). The overall annual cancer incidence rate is conservatively projected to rise to about 186 cases (95% CI, 175-197 cases) per million children by 2035 (1060 cases per year).CONCLUSIONS: The incidence rates of several childhood cancer types steadily increased during 1983-2015. Although the reasons for these rises are largely unknown, our findings provide a foundation for health service planning for meeting the needs of children who will be diagnosed with cancer until 2035.

Background: High hospital-volume and service capability are associated with improved mortality following complex cancer surgery. Using a population-based study in Queensland, we assessed differences in mortality following oesophagectomy and pancreaticoduodenectomy, comparing high- and low-volume hospitals stratified by service capability. Methods: Data on all patients undergoing oesophagectomy and pancreaticoduodenectomy for cancer in Queensland between 2001 and 2015 were obtained from the Queensland Oncology Repository. Hospital service capability was defined using the 2015 Australian Institute of Health and Welfare hospital peer groupings. Hospitals were grouped into ‘high-volume (≥6 oesophagectomies or pancreaticoduodenectomies annually) with high service capability'; ‘low-volume (

Background: China contributes to almost half of the esophageal cancer cases diagnosed globally each year. However, the prognosis information of this disease in this large population is scarce. Methods: Data on a population-based cohort consisting of residents of Shandong Province, China who were diagnosed with esophageal cancer during the period from 2005 to 2014 were analyzed. The cancer-specific survival rates were estimated using Kaplan–Meier analysis. Discrete-time multilevel mixed-effects survival models were used to investigate socioeconomic status (SES) disparities on esophageal cancer survival. Results: The unadjusted 1-, 3-, and 5-year cause-specific survival rates were 59.6% [95% confidence interval (CI), 59.2%–59.9%], 31.9% (95% CI, 31.5%–32.3%), and 23.6% (95% CI, 23.1%–24.0%), respectively. Patients of blue-collar occupations had higher risk of esophageal cancer–related death than those of white-collar occupations in the first 2 years after diagnosis. Rural patients had higher risk of death than urban patients in the first 3 years after diagnosis. The risks of esophageal cancer–related death among patients living in low/middle/high SES index counties were not different in the first 2 years after diagnosis. However, patients living in high SES index counties had better long-term survival (3–5 years postdiagnosis) than those living in middle or low SES index counties. Conclusions: Socioeconomic inequalities in esophageal cancer survival exist in this Chinese population. Higher individual- or area-level SES is associated with better short-term or long-term cancer survival. Impact: Elucidation of the relative roles of the SES factors on survival could guide interventions to reduce disparities in the prognosis of esophageal cancer.

Survivors of invasive melanoma have an increased risk of developing second primary cancers; however, similar risks associated with in situ melanoma have not been established. We evaluated 39,872 survivors of first primary in situ melanoma diagnosed from 1982 through 2012 in Queensland, Australia. Relative risk of second nonmelanoma primary cancers was estimated from standardized incidence ratios with 95% confidence intervals. A total of 4,823 (12%) in situ melanoma survivors developed a second primary cancer. A small increased risk (6%) compared with the general population was found. In those younger than 50 years, risk was increased by 14% for all cancers combined. In situ melanoma survivors had significantly increased risks of developing lip, thyroid, pancreatic, and brain cancers and decreased risks of head and neck, and lung cancers. Male in situ melanoma survivors had a significantly increased risk of prostate cancer; female survivors had an increased risk of thyroid cancer and lymphoid leukemia. Findings indicate that in situ melanoma may predict the diagnosis of certain second primary cancers. This altered risk may be due to biological, behavioral, or genetic factors or increased medical surveillance, and it requires further investigation, particularly among people younger than 50 years.

Objectives This study will assess the relationship between vitamin D concentration at melanoma diagnosis and melanoma tumor characteristics, in individuals in a high ultraviolet radiation (UVR) environment. Methods We aim to recruit 600 recently diagnosed melanoma patients from Queensland, Australia, a high UVR location with one of the world’s highest melanoma incidence rates. Patients are recruited through general practitioner, skin cancer specialist, dermatological and hospital-based practices. As close as possible to diagnosis, participants provide a blood sample for vitamin D analysis and have their sun exposure/sun protection behavior, melanoma risk factors and dietary vitamin D intake assessed by questionnaire and phone interview. Details of tumor pathology, including tumor level, thickness, and ulceration, are abstracted from cancer registry records. Here, we describe the study methods and present preliminary findings from early participants. Results As of December 2017, we have recruited 128 participants (48% male, mean age 60.2 years, mean Breslow thickness 0.63 mm). Conclusions When complete, this study will give insights into the association between vitamin D at diagnosis and melanoma tumor characteristics whilst adjusting for recent sun exposure and sun protection use. This study may impact military sun exposure and nutrition policies as vitamin D may play a role in melanomagenesis.

The International Agency for Research on Cancer first concluded that alcohol causes cancer in humans in 1988. The World Cancer Research Fund has declared that alcohol causes cancer of the oral cavity, pharynx, larynx, oesophagus (squamous cell carcinoma), female breast, colon, rectum, stomach and liver. It recommended that alcohol be avoided altogether to prevent cancer. We aimed to quantify the impact of reducing alcohol consumption on future cancer incidence in Australia. We used PREVENT 3.01 simulation modelling software to estimate the proportion of cancers that could potentially be prevented over a 25-year period under two hypothetical intervention scenarios and two latency periods (20 and 30 years). Under a scenario where alcohol consumption abruptly ceases, we estimated up to 4% of alcohol-related cancers could be avoided over a 25-year period (~49,500 cancers, depending on assumed latency). If the maximum consumption of all Australian adults was ≤20 g/day (~two Australian standard drinks), up to 2% of alcohol-related cancers could be avoided (~29,600 cancers). The maximum proportions were higher for men (6% for no alcohol consumption; 5% for ≤20 g/day) than women (3%; 1%). The proportion avoidable was highest for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (17% no alcohol consumption; 9% ≤20 g/day), followed by cancers of the oral cavity (12%; 5%) and pharynx (11%; 5%). The cancer sites with the highest numbers of potentially avoidable cases were colon in men (11,500; 9,900) and breast in women (14,400; 4,100). Successful interventions to reduce alcohol intake could lead to significant reductions in cancer incidence. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Background While Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples have poorer cancer survival than other Australians, absolute measures of survival disparities are lacking. This study quantified crude probabilities of deaths from cancer and other causes and estimated the number of avoidable deaths for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders if these survival disparities were removed. Methods Flexible parametric relative survival models were used to estimate reported measures for a population-based cohort of 709,239 Australians (12,830 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples), 2005–2016. Results Among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, the 5-year crude probability of cancer death was 0.44, while it was 0.07 for other causes of death. These probabilities were 0.07 and 0.03 higher than among other Australians, respectively. Magnitude of these disparities varied by cancer type and ranged for cancer deaths from Conclusions Study findings suggest the need to reduce the prevalence of risk factors prevalence, increase screening participation, and improve early detection, diagnosis and treatment rates to achieve more equitable outcomes for a range of cancer types. Reported measures provide unique insights into the impact of a cancer diagnosis among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples from a different perspective to standard relative survival measures.

Objective: Mandatory fortification of bread flour with folic acid has helped to reduce the incidence of neural tube defects in several countries. However, it has been suggested that folic acid may have potential adenoma-promoting effects, and reports from some countries have suggested that mandatory folic acid food fortification programmes have increased the incidence of colorectal cancer. The objective of this study was to evaluate colorectal cancer incidence patterns before and after introduction of mandatory folic acid fortification of bread flour in Australia in 2009. Design: Data from the Australian Cancer Database were used to plot age-standardised incidence of colorectal cancer. We calculated age-adjusted rate ratios with 95 % CIs. Setting: Australia. Participants: We used population-level aggregate data obtained from cancer registries. Results: Age-standardised colorectal cancer incidence generally decreased between 1999 and 2016. Although there was a slight increase in rates in 2010 compared with 2009 (62·8 v. 61·6 cases per 100 000, age-adjusted rate ratio 1·02 (95 % CI 0·99, 1·04), joinpoint regression indicated decreases of –0·4 % (95 % CI –0·7, 0·0) per year from 1999 to 2010 and –2·2 % (95 % CI –3·1, –1·3) per year from 2010 to 2016. Conclusions: While causation cannot be assessed from these population-level data, our observations indicate that there is no evidence that introduction of mandatory folic acid fortification of bread flour has influenced colorectal cancer incidence in Australia.

This correction refers to an error in the numeric values reported in table 4, which is a subset of table 13. The correct values are displayed below. (Table Presented). This error has no implications on the results and conclusions drawn in the publication. The paper has now been updated.

Background To estimate trends in the crude probability of death for cancer patients by sex, age and spread of disease over the past 30 years in New South Wales, Australia. Methods Population‐based cohort of 716,501 people aged 15–89 years diagnosed with a first primary cancer during 1985–2014 were followed up to 31 December 2015. Flexible parametric relative survival models were used to estimate the age‐specific crude probability of dying from cancer and other causes by calendar year, sex and spread of disease for all solid tumours combined and cancers of the colorectum, lung, female breast, prostate and melanoma. Results Estimated 10‐year sex, age and spread‐specific crude probabilities of cancer death generally decreased over time for most cancer types, although the magnitude of the decrease varied. For example, out of 100 fifty‐year old men with localized prostate cancer, 12 would have died from their cancer if diagnosed in 1985 and 3 in 2014. Greater degree of spread was consistently associated with higher probability of dying from cancer, although outcomes for lung cancer were consistently poor. For both males and females, the probability of non‐cancer deaths was higher among older patients, those diagnosed with localized cancers and where cancer survival was higher. Conclusion Crude probabilities presented here may be useful in helping clinicians and their patients better understand prognoses and make informed decisions about treatment. They also provide novel insights into the relative contributions that early detection and improved treatments have on the observed temporal patterns in cancer survival., This study provides a more relevant measure of prognosis for cancer patients ‐ crude probabilities of death due to cancer and other causes. Such information may be useful to clinicians and patients making treatment choices based on cancer type, age and stage at diagnosis.

It has long been recognized that knowledge of cancer can influence an individual’s lifestyle and health behaviors, and it is hoped that policy makers and medical professionals will use cancer knowledge as a tool in the fight against cancer. However, it is important not only for levels of cancer prevention knowledge to be increased in the community but also for key barriers to subsequent behavioral changes to be identified and removed if the massive cancer burden in China is to be addressed.

Purpose: Breast cancer is the most common cancer diagnosed among adolescent and young adult (AYA) females worldwide, but epidemiological patterns unique to this group are often obscured when results are combined with older patients. This study investigates breast cancer incidence and survival among AYA females, including differences by broad stage at diagnosis.Methods: A retrospective, population-based cohort study was conducted using de-identified data for females in Queensland, Australia, aged 15–39 diagnosed with a first primary breast cancer between 1997 and 2014 with follow-up to December 31, 2016. Incidence rate trends were examined with Joinpoint analysis. Cause-specific survival was calculated for key characteristics, and 5-year adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated from a multivariable flexible parametric model. Results: The study cohort comprised 2337 patients, of whom two-thirds (n = 1565, 67%) were diagnosed with advanced disease (tumor diameter >20 mm, lymph node involvement or presence of distant metastases at diagnosis). Incidence rates of localized tumors decreased by 1.9% per year (95% confidence interval [CI] −3.5% to −0.4%) over the study period, whereas the trend for advanced breast cancers remained stable. Five-year cause-specific survival increased from 85% to 92% for 2011–2014 compared to 1997–2001 (adjusted HR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.29–0.65). Patients who were Indigenous from disadvantaged areas or diagnosed with advanced stage experienced significantly worse survival. Conclusion: The high proportion of younger females diagnosed with advanced breast cancer should be the focus of future campaigns to improve awareness and earlier detection. While survival has increased over time, further work is required to ensure that this progress is experienced equitably by all patients. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

This study aimed to identify whether cancer-related health behaviours including participation in cancer screening vary by geographic location in Australia. Data were obtained from the 2014&ndash, 2015 Australian National Health Survey, a computer-assisted telephone interview that measured a range of health-related issues in a sample of randomly selected households. Chi-square tests and adjusted odds ratios from logistic regression models were computed to assess the association between residential location and cancer-related health behaviours including cancer screening participation, alcohol consumption, smoking, exercise, and fruit and vegetable intake, controlling for age, socio-economic status (SES), education, and place of birth. The findings show insufficient exercise, risky alcohol intake, meeting vegetable intake guidelines, and participation in cervical screening are more likely for those living in inner regional areas and in outer regional/remote areas compared with those living in major cities. Daily smoking and participation in prostate cancer screening were significantly higher for those living in outer regional/remote areas. While participation in cancer screening in Australia does not appear to be negatively impacted by regional or remote living, lifestyle behaviours associated with cancer incidence and mortality are poorer in regional and remote areas. Population-based interventions targeting health behaviour change may be an appropriate target for reducing geographical disparities in cancer outcomes.

Globally, 39% of the world's adult population is overweight or obese and 23% is insufficiently active. These percentages are even larger in high-income countries with 58% overweight/obese and 33% insufficiently active. Fourteen cancer types have been declared by the World Cancer Research Fund to be causally associated with being overweight or obese: oesophageal adenocarcinoma, stomach cardia, colon, rectum, liver, gallbladder, pancreas, breast, endometrium, ovary, advanced/fatal prostate, kidney, thyroid and multiple myeloma. Colon, postmenopausal breast and endometrial cancers have also been judged causally associated with physical inactivity. We aimed to quantify the proportion of cancer cases that would be potentially avoidable in Australia if the prevalence of overweight/obesity and physical inactivity in the population could be reduced. We used the simulation modelling software PREVENT 3.01 to calculate the proportion of avoidable cancers over a 25-year period under different theoretical intervention scenarios that change the prevalence of overweight/obesity and physical inactivity in the population. Between 2013 and 2037, 10-13% of overweight/obesity-related cancers in men and 7-11% in women could be avoided if overweight and obesity were eliminated in the Australian population. If everyone in the population met the Australian physical activity guidelines for cancer prevention (i.e. engaged in at least 300 min of moderate-intensity physical activity per week), an estimated 2-3% of physical inactivity-related cancers could be prevented in men (colon cancer) and 1-2% in women (colon, breast and endometrial cancers). This would translate to the prevention of up to 190,500 overweight/obesity-related cancers and 19,200 inactivity-related cancers over 25 years.

Background: Understanding the burden of competing (non-breast cancer) mortality is important for the growing number of breast cancer survivors. We quantity these patterns, and the impact of two leading non-cancer causes of death, within ten years of breast cancer diagnosis. Methods: Population based cancer registry study of 23,809 women aged 50–79 diagnosed with first primary breast cancer in Queensland, Australia, 1997 to 2012 with additional data linkage to identify individual non-cancer mortality causes. Flexible parametric competing-risks models were used to estimate the crude and adjusted probabilities of death. Results: While overall mortality increased with age at diagnosis, this effect was strongest for non-cancer (such as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease) mortality. Women diagnosed with advanced breast cancer had a higher crude probability of breast cancer death (23.1% versus 4.5% for localised) but similar probability of competing mortality (11.6% versus 11.3%). Within each category of spread of disease, the probability of breast-cancer deaths remained relatively constant with age, while the probability of competing deaths increased. The 10-year probability of dying from breast cancer was 3.7%, 4.2% and 5.6% among women with localised disease aged 50 to 59, 60–69 and 70–79 respectively, but 3.1%, 7.8% and 22.9% for competing mortality. Increasing age, advanced disease and being unpartnered were independently associated with increased risk of breast cancer and competing deaths. Conclusions: Promotion of improved health behaviors after a cancer diagnosis and development of individualized strategies for clinical management should be prioritized as part of optimal care for breast cancer survivors.