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Both focus group discussions and information-choice questionnaires (ICQs) have previously been used toexamine informed public opinions about carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS). This paper presentsan extensive experimental study to systematically examine and compare the quality of opinions createdby these two research techniques. Depending on experimental condition, participants either participatedin a focus group meeting or completed an ICQ. In both conditions participants received identical factualinformation about two specific CCS options. After having processed the information, they indicated theiroverall opinion about each CCS option. The quality of these opinions was determined by looking at threeoutcome-oriented indicators of opinion quality: consistency, stability, and confidence. Results for allthree indicators showed that ICQs yielded higher-quality opinions than focus groups, but also that focusgroups did not perform poor in this regard. Implications for the choice between focus group discussionsand ICQs are discussed.

Both focus group discussions and information-choice questionnaires (ICQs) have previously been used to examine informed public opinions about carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS). This paper presents an extensive experimental study to systematically examine and compare the quality of opinions created by these two research techniques. Depending on experimental condition, participants either participated in a focus group meeting or completed an ICQ. In both conditions participants received identical factual information about two specific CCS options. After having processed the information, they indicated their overall opinion about each CCS option. The quality of these opinions was determined by looking at three outcome-oriented indicators of opinion quality: consistency, stability, and confidence. Results for all three indicators showed that ICQs yielded higher-quality opinions than focus groups, but also that focus groups did not perform poor in this regard. Implications for the choice between focus group discussions and ICQs are discussed.

in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)., Academic and political debates over long-run climate policy often invoke “stabilization” of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), but only rarely are non-CO2 greenhouse gases addressed explicitly. Even though the majority of short-term climate policies propose trading between gases on a global warming potential (GWP) basis, discussions of whether CO2 concentrations should be 450, 550, 650, or perhaps as much as 750 ppm leave unstated whether there should be no additional forcing from other GHGs beyond current levels or whether separate concentration targets should be established for each GHG. Here we use an integrated modeling framework to examine multi-gas stabilization in terms of temperature, economic costs, carbon uptake, and other important consequences. We show that there are significant differences in both costs and climate impacts between different "GWP equivalent" policies and demonstrate the importance of non-CO2 GHG reduction on timescales of up to several centuries., Sarofim was supported in part by a Martin Sustainability Fellowship

Includes bibliographical references., in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/), EPA's legal authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act is reviewed. While EPA clearly does not have the authority to implement the precise terms of the Kyoto Protocol, arguments could be put forward to support the Agency's claim that it has the authority to control such pollutants. However, the Clean Air Act's legislative history, a textual analysis of the Act, judicial precedents and political considerations all provide compelling arguments for the EPA to seek additional legislation before attempting to regulate greenhouse gases. Even a generous interpretation of existing provisions would prohibit trading in greenhouse gas emissions permits and therefore contradicts the Administration's own preferred approach to addressing climate change which favors employing market mechanisms to help reduce the costs of carrying out reductions. Moreover, the participation of developing countries in an emissions control regime, which has been stipulated by the Senate and endorsed by the Administration, would also remain unaffected since the Clean Air Act is only designed to address local and regional pollution. Concerns over backdoor implementation of the Kyoto Protocol and EPA's attempts to regulate emissions help explain the political attacks on the agency's efforts to pursue research, education, and non-regulatory solutions to the climate change problem.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 16)., in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)., Policies under consideration within the Climate Convention would impose CO₂ controls on only a subset of nations. A model of economic growth and emissions, coupled to an analysis of the climate system, is used to explore the consequences of a sample proposal of this type. The results show how economic burdens are likely to be distributed among nations, how carbon "leakage" may counteract the reductions attained, and how policy costs may be influenced by emissions trading. We explore the sensitivity of results to uncertainty in key underlying assumptions, including the influence on economic impacts and on the policy contribution to long-term climate goals.

in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Website. (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/), Includes bibliographical references (p. 16-17)., At meetings in Bonn and Marrakech in 2001, the Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change broke through an impasse on the detailed provisions needed to allow the Kyoto Protocol to enter into force. Key ingredients in the breakthrough included U.S. withdrawal from the process, an effective relaxation of emissions targets for Japan, Canada, and Russia, and provision of access to unrestricted emissions trading. We analyze the costs of implementation and the environmental effectiveness of the Bonn-Marrakech agreement, and its effect on the relative roles of CO₂ vs. non-CO₂ greenhouse gases. The ability of the major sellers of permits, notably Russia and Ukraine, to restrict access to permits, and the ability to trade across all greenhouse gases controlled under the Protocol, are both found to have a significant effect for both costs and effectiveness. Finally, the implications of the agreement for the future evolution of the climate regime are explored.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 16)., in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)., The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model is applied to an exploration of the national emissions obligations that would be required to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations at levels now under active discussion. The results indicate that the needed voluntary participation will be difficult to achieve, not least because nations at very different income levels would have to undertake similarly costly emissions restrictions. The need for more attention to the linkage between short-term policy proposals and long-term stabilization goals is highlighted.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 19-20)., in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/), Drawing upon a variety of different criteria, many nations have introduced proposals to differentiate the reductions in carbon emissions that would be required of industrialized nations in the short to medium term. This paper considers the relationship of these proposals to their underlying conceptions of equity, and to the self-interest of the nations proposing them. The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Assessment (EPPA) model is used to analyze the welfare implications of several prominent proposals, considering both cases where nations must carry out all emissions reductions domestically, and situations where trading in emissions permits is allowed. The consequences of applying two prominent differentiation measures to a global regime using a zero-based allocation of emissions rights is also explored. One conclusion is that a trading regime can yield important benefits in reducing potential conflict within developed nations, and help avoid complicated and divisive negotiations over burden-sharing formulas.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 21-23)., in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)