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Summary Background The ability to accurately predict early progression of dengue to severe disease is crucial for patient triage and clinical management. Previous systematic reviews and meta-analyses have found significant heterogeneity in predictors of severe disease due to large variation in these factors during the time course of the illness. We aimed to identify factors associated with progression to severe dengue disease that are detectable specifically in the febrile phase. Methods We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify predictors identifiable during the febrile phase associated with progression to severe disease defined according to WHO criteria. Eight medical databases were searched for studies published from Jan 1, 1997, to Jan 31, 2020. Original clinical studies in English assessing the association of factors detected during the febrile phase with progression to severe dengue were selected and assessed by three reviewers, with discrepancies resolved by consensus. Meta-analyses were done using random-effects models to estimate pooled effect sizes. Only predictors reported in at least four studies were included in the meta-analyses. Heterogeneity was assessed using the Cochrane Q and I2 statistics, and publication bias was assessed by Egger's test. We did subgroup analyses of studies with children and adults. The study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42018093363. Findings Of 6643 studies identified, 150 articles were included in the systematic review, and 122 articles comprising 25 potential predictors were included in the meta-analyses. Female patients had a higher risk of severe dengue than male patients in the main analysis (2674 [16·2%] of 16 481 vs 3052 [10·5%] of 29 142; odds ratio [OR] 1·13 [95% CI 1·01–1·26) but not in the subgroup analysis of studies with children. Pre-existing comorbidities associated with severe disease were diabetes (135 [31·3%] of 431 with vs 868 [16·0%] of 5421 without; crude OR 4·38 [2·58–7·43]), hypertension (240 [35·0%] of 685 vs 763 [20·6%] of 3695; 2·19 [1·36–3·53]), renal disease (44 [45·8%] of 96 vs 271 [16·0%] of 1690; 4·67 [2·21–9·88]), and cardiovascular disease (nine [23·1%] of 39 vs 155 [8·6%] of 1793; 2·79 [1·04–7·50]). Clinical features during the febrile phase associated with progression to severe disease were vomiting (329 [13·5%] of 2432 with vs 258 [6·8%] of 3797 without; 2·25 [1·87–2·71]), abdominal pain and tenderness (321 [17·7%] of 1814 vs 435 [8·1%] of 5357; 1·92 [1·35–2·74]), spontaneous or mucosal bleeding (147 [17·9%] of 822 vs 676 [10·8%] of 6235; 1·57 [1·13–2·19]), and the presence of clinical fluid accumulation (40 [42·1%] of 95 vs 212 [14·9%] of 1425; 4·61 [2·29–9·26]). During the first 4 days of illness, platelet count was lower (standardised mean difference −0·34 [95% CI −0·54 to −0·15]), serum albumin was lower (−0·5 [–0·86 to −0·15]), and aminotransferase concentrations were higher (aspartate aminotransferase [AST] 1·06 [0·54 to 1·57] and alanine aminotransferase [ALT] 0·73 [0·36 to 1·09]) among individuals who progressed to severe disease. Dengue virus serotype 2 was associated with severe disease in children. Secondary infections (vs primary infections) were also associated with severe disease (1682 [11·8%] of 14 252 with vs 507 [5·2%] of 9660 without; OR 2·26 [95% CI 1·65–3·09]). Although the included studies had a moderate to high risk of bias in terms of study confounding, the risk of bias was low to moderate in other domains. Heterogeneity of the pooled results varied from low to high on different factors. Interpretation This analysis supports monitoring of the warning signs described in the 2009 WHO guidelines on dengue. In addition, testing for infecting serotype and monitoring platelet count and serum albumin, AST, and ALT concentrations during the febrile phase of illness could improve the early prediction of severe dengue. Funding Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research, Collaborative Project to Increase Production of Rural Doctors, and Royal Thai Government.

Malaria fever is extreme overall wellbeing face an issue. Malaria fever keeps on being a peril to the ascendant nations. Epidemiological data from various territories of Pakistan is missing to intently appraise the event of various sorts of intestinal sickness.

Background Major histocompatibility complex class I chain–related (MIC) A and B (MICA and MICB) are polymorphic stress molecules recognized by natural killer cells. This study was performed to analyze MIC gene profiles in hospitalized Thai children with acute dengue illness. Methods MIC allele profiles were determined in a discovery cohort of patients with dengue fever or dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) (n = 166) and controls (n = 149). A replication cohort of patients with dengue (n = 222) was used to confirm specific MICB associations with disease. Results MICA*045 and MICB*004 associated with susceptibility to DHF in secondary dengue virus (DENV) infections (odds ratio [OR], 3.22; [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.18–8.84] and 1.99 [1.07–2.13], respectively), and MICB*002 with protection from DHF in secondary DENV infections (OR, 0.41; 95% CI, .21–.68). The protective effect of MICB*002 against secondary DHF was confirmed in the replication cohort (OR, 0.43; 95% CI, .22–.82) and was stronger when MICB*002 is present in individuals also carrying HLA-B*18, B*40, and B*44 alleles which form the B44 supertype of functionally related alleles (0.29, 95% CI, .14–.60). Conclusions Given that MICB*002 is a low expresser of soluble proteins, these data indicate that surface expression of MICB*002 with B44 supertype alleles on DENV-infected cells confer a protective advantage in controlling DENV infection using natural killer cells.

Without an effective vaccine or specific treatment for dengue, the ability to accurately predict early progression to severe disease relies on patient triage and clinical management. Previous systematic reviews and meta-analyses have found significant heterogeneity in predictors associated with severe disease, due to large variations of these factors during the time-course of the illness. Our study aimed to identify the factors associated with progression to severe dengue disease, which are detectable specifically in the febrile phase. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify predictors associated with disease progression identifiable during the febrile phase. Eight medical databases were searched for studies published from January 1997 to February 2018. Relevant studies were selected and assessed by three reviewers with discrepancies resolved by consensus. Meta-analyses were performed using random-effects models to estimate pooled effect sizes. Heterogeneity and publication bias were also assessed. Of 5,293 studies identified, 98 were included in the meta-analyses. The presence of pre-existing comorbidities (diabetes mellitus, hypertension and renal disease) were associated with severe dengue. Vomiting, abdominal pain and tenderness, spontaneous and mucosal bleeding, and clinical fluid accumulation were clinical features associated with progression to severe disease. During the first four days of illness, platelet count, and serum albumin were lower among individuals who progressed to severe disease whilst aminotransferase levels were higher. Dengue virus serotype 2 and secondary infection were also associated with severe disease. This analysis supports the monitoring of the warning signs described in the 2009 WHO guidelines. In addition, testing for infecting serotype and monitoring platelet count, serum albumin, AST and ALT during the febrile phase of illness would improve the early prediction of severe dengue. Funding Statement: The authors state: "There was no funding source for this study." SS acknowledges funding from the Collaborative Project to Increase Production of Rural Doctor and Royal Thai Government Scholarship. ID ackowledges research funding from an Imperial College Junior Research Fellowship, a Wellcome Trust Sir Henry Dale Fellowship, Janssen Pharmaceutica and joint Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development. AH is a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Senior Investigator. She also acknowledges the support of the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare Associated Infections and Antimicrobial Resistance at Imperial College London in partnership with Public Health England (PHE), in collaboration with The Sanger Institute, the University of Cambridge Veterinary School and Imperial College Health Partners Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests. Ethics Approval Statement: We followed the protocol described in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses for Protocols (PRISMA-P) guidelines and the steps discussed in the guide to systematic review and meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies by Riley et al . Our protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42018093363).

BACKGROUND: Follicular helper T cells (T(FH)) are specialized CD4 T cells required for B-cell help and antibody production. METHODS: Given the postulated role of immune activation in dengue disease, we measured the expansion and activation of T(FH) in the circulation (peripheral T(FH) [pT(FH)]) collected from Thai children with laboratory-confirmed acute dengue virus (DENV) infection. RESULTS: We found significant expansion and activation of pT(FH) subsets during acute infection with the highest frequencies of activated pT(FH) (PD1(hi) pT(FH) and PD1(+)CD38(+) pT(FH)) detected during the critical phase of illness. Numbers of activated pT(FH) were higher in patients with secondary compared with primary infections and in patients with more severe disease. We also found a positive correlation between the frequencies of activated pT(FH) and the frequencies of plasmablasts. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first ex vivo analysis of pT(FH) activation during acute DENV infection. Overall, our study supports the model that pT(FH) contribute to disease evolution during the critical stage of illness.

BACKGROUND Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) supertypes are groups of functionally related alleles that present structurally similar antigens to the immune system. OBJECTIVES To analyze HLA class I supertype associations with clinical outcome in hospitalized Thai children with acute dengue illness. METHODS Seven hundred sixty-two patients and population-matched controls recruited predominantly in Bangkok were HLA-A and -B typed. HLA supertype frequencies were compared and tested for significant dengue disease associations using logistic regression analyses. Multivariable models were built by conducting forward stepwise selection procedures. RESULTS In the final logistic regression model, the HLA-B44 supertype was protective against dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in secondary infections (odds ratio [OR] = 0.46, 95% confidence interval [CI], .30-.72), while the HLA-A02 supertype (OR = 1.92, 95% CI, 1.30-2.83) and the HLA-A01/03 supertype (OR = 3.01, 95% CI, 1.01-8.92) were associated with susceptibility to secondary dengue fever. The B07 supertype was associated with susceptibility to secondary DHF in the univariate analysis (OR = 1.60, 95% CI, 1.05-2.46), whereas that was not retained in the final model. CONCLUSIONS As the HLA-B44 supertype is predicted to target conserved epitopes in dengue, our results suggest that B44 supertype-restricted immune responses to highly conserved regions of the dengue proteome may protect against secondary DHF.

Background: AFRIMS longitudinal dengue surveillance in Thailand depends on the nested RT-PCR and the dengue IgM/IgG ELISA. Objective: To examine and improve the sensitivity of the nested RT-PCR using a panel of archived samples collected during dengue surveillance. Study design: A retrospective analysis of 16,454 dengue IgM/IgG ELISA positive cases collected between 2000 and 2013 was done to investigate the sensitivity of the nested RT-PCR. From these cases, 318 acute serum specimens or extracted RNA, previously found to be negative by the nested RT-PCR, were tested using TaqMan real-time RT-PCR (TaqMan rRT-PCR). To improve the sensitivity of nested RT-PCR, we designed a new primer based on nucleotide sequences from contemporary strains found to be positive by the TaqMan rRT-PCR. Sensitivity of the new nested PCR was calculated using a panel of 87 samples collected during 2011–2013. Results and conclusion: The percentage of dengue IgM/IgG ELISA positive cases that were negative by the nested RT-PCR varied from 17% to 42% for all serotypes depending on the year. Using TaqMan rRT-PCR, dengue RNA was detected in 194 (61%) of the 318 acute sera or extracted RNA previously found to be negative by the nested RT-PCR. The newly designed DENV-1 specific primer increased the sensitivity of DENV-1 detection by the nested RT-PCR from 48% to 88%, and of all 4 serotypes from 73% to 87%. These findings demonstrate the impact of genetic diversity and signal erosion on the sensitivity of PCR-based methods.

A fundamental mystery for dengue and other infectious pathogens is how observed patterns of cases relate to actual chains of individual transmission events. These pathways are intimately tied to the mechanisms by which strains interact and compete across spatial scales. Phylogeographic methods have been used to characterize pathogen dispersal at global and regional scales but have yielded few insights into the local spatiotemporal structure of endemic transmission. Using geolocated genotype (800 cases) and serotype (17,291 cases) data, we show that in Bangkok, Thailand, 60% of dengue cases living200 meters apart come from the same transmission chain, as opposed to 3% of cases separated by 1 to 5 kilometers. At distances200 meters from a case (encompassing an average of 1300 people in Bangkok), the effective number of chains is 1.7. This number rises by a factor of 7 for each 10-fold increase in the population of the "enclosed" region. This trend is observed regardless of whether population density or area increases, though increases in density over 7000 people per square kilometer do not lead to additional chains. Within Thailand these chains quickly mix, and by the next dengue season viral lineages are no longer highly spatially structured within the country. In contrast, viral flow to neighboring countries is limited. These findings are consistent with local, density-dependent transmission and implicate densely populated communities as key sources of viral diversity, with home location the focal point of transmission. These findings have important implications for targeted vector control and active surveillance.

The global burden of dengue and its geographic distribution have increased over the past several decades. The introduction of dengue in new areas has often been accompanied by high case-fatality rates. Drawing on the experience in managing dengue cases at the Queen Sirikit National Institute of Child Health in Bangkok, Thailand, this article provides the authors' perspectives on key clinical lessons to improve dengue-related outcomes. Parallels between this clinical experience and outcomes reported in randomized controlled trials, results of efforts to disseminate practice recommendations, and suggestions for areas for further research are also discussed.

Background Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok are highly dengue endemic. The extent to which disease patterns are attributable to local versus regional dynamics remains unclear. To address this gap we compared key transmission parameters across the locations. Methods and Principal Findings We used 2003–2009 age-stratified case data to inform catalytic transmission models. Further, we compared the spatial clustering of serotypes within each city. We found that annual case numbers were highly consistent across the two cities (correlation of 0.77, 95% CI: 0.74–0.79) as was the annual force of infection (correlation of 0.57, 95% CI: 0.46–0.68). Serotypes were less similar with serotype-specific correlations ranging from 0.65 for DENV1 to -0.14 for DENV4. Significant spatial clustering of serotypes was observed in HCMC at distances, Author Summary All four serotypes of dengue have circulated endemically throughout Southeast Asia for decades. However, despite the enormous burden of disease, there remains poor understanding of the similarity in disease patterns across the region. We analyzed data from over 100,000 cases of dengue from two of the largest cities in the region, Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City between 2001 and 2009. We use basic statistical methods to reconstruct the annual probability of infection in the two cities during this time period using methods that are robust to differences in reporting mechanisms. We find that both the epidemic curves and annual probabilities of infection were highly correlated across the cities, however, serotype-specific correlations were far more variable. Finally, we used geocoded case homes from Ho Chi Minh to demonstrate that cases in the city clustered at spatial scales (

The immune response to dengue virus (DENV) infection is complex and not fully understood. Using longitudinal data from 181 children with dengue in Thailand who were followed for up to 3 years, we describe neutralizing antibody kinetics following symptomatic DENV infection. We observed that antibody titers varied by serotype, homotypic vs heterotypic responses, and primary versus postprimary infections. The rates of change in antibody titers over time varied between primary and postprimary responses. For primary infections, titers increased from convalescence to 6 months. By comparing homotypic and heterotypic antibody titers, we saw an increase in type specificity from convalescence to 6 months for primary DENV3 infections but not primary DENV1 infections. In postprimary cases, there was a decrease in titers from convalescence up until 6 months after infection. Beginning 1 year after both primary and postprimary infections, there was evidence of increasing antibody titers, with greater increases in children with lower titers, suggesting that antibody titers were boosted due to infection and that higher levels of neutralizing antibody may be more likely to confer a sterilizing immune response. These findings may help to model virus transmission dynamics and provide baseline data to support the development of vaccines and therapeutics.

Dengue is one of the most important mosquito-borne viral illnesses. The first DHF outbreak was reported from the Philippines in 1953. Initially it was endemic only in Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific regions. After about 50 years from the first outbreak, it spread globally to almost every continent including North and South America, Australia and Africa. The majority of cases during the 50s to 80s were children, but today the disease affects both children and adults of all age groups. The disease is caused by dengue viruses that have four serotypes: dengue 1, dengue 2, dengue 3 and dengue 4. Primary infection usually results in milder illness, while more severe disease occurs in cases of repeated infection with different serotypes. In this paper clinical manifestations and management of dengue/DHF/DSS are summarized.

Dengue virus infection causes a spectrum of clinical manifestations, usually classified according to the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines into dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). The ability of these guidelines to categorize severe dengue illness has recently been questioned.We evaluated dengue case definitions in a prospective study at a pediatric hospital in Bangkok, Thailand, during 1994-2005. One thousand thirteen children were enrolled within the first 3 days after onset of fever and observed with standardized data collection. Cases were classified on the basis of application of the strict WHO criteria. All dengue virus infections were laboratory confirmed. We retrospectively grouped patients on the basis of whether they received significant intervention based on fluid replacement and/or requirements for blood transfusion.Eighty-five (58%) of 150 persons with DHF, 40 (15%) of 264 with DF, and 73 (12%) of 599 with other febrile illnesses (OFIs) received significant intervention. Sixty-eight percent of dengue cases requiring intervention met strict WHO criteria for DHF. In contrast, only 1% of OFI cases met WHO criteria for DHF. Plasma leakage and thrombocytopenia were the 2 components contributing to the specificity of the WHO case definition and identified dengue cases that required intervention. Hemorrhagic tendency did not reliably differentiate DF and DHF. In DF cases, thrombocytopenia and bleeding were associated with severity.Dengue illness is heterogeneous in severity, and severe clinical features occurred in patients whose cases were not characterized as DHF. The WHO case definition of DHF demonstrated sensitivity of 62% and specificity of 92% for identification of dengue illness requiring intervention, without the need for laboratory confirmation of dengue virus infection, in an area of endemicity.

Severe dengue virus (DENV) infection is characterized by a cascade of cytokine production, including the production of tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) and lymphotoxin-alpha (LT-alpha). We have analyzed a variety of polymorphisms in the TNF and LTA genes of 435 ethnic Thais who had subclinical DENV infection, primary or secondary dengue fever (DF), or primary or secondary dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). The TNF -238A polymorphism marking the TNF-4,LTA-3 haplotype occurred in a significantly greater number of patients with secondary DHF (20 [15.2%] of 132) than patients with secondary DF (7 [4.1%] of 169) (P.001; P corrected by use of Bonferroni adjustment, .022; odds ratio, 4.13 [95% confidence interval, 1.59-11.17]). In a subset of patients, the LTA-3 haplotype was associated with in vivo intracellular production of LT-alpha and TNF-alpha during the acute viremic phase of infection. Two extended human major histocompatibility complex (MHC) haplotypes containing TNF-4 and LTA-3, together with HLA-B48, HLA-B57, and HLA-DPB1*0501, were detected only in patients with secondary DHF. These observations indicate that polymorphism in functionally distinct MHC-encoded proteins contributes to the risk of developing severe secondary DENV infection and warrants further investigation.

In response to a January 2005 report of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in Timor Leste, the World Health Organization sent a team to assist the National Hospital Guido Valadares (NHGV) in Dili with clinical case management and diagnostic support. The hospital reported 67 admissions including 8 deaths (case fatality rate approximately 12%) over the previous weeks with case histories clinically compatible with DHF. During the intervention, an additional 44 suspected dengue patients were admitted to the pediatric ward of NHGV. Among 41 patients with clinical diagnoses of dengue fever or DHF, 38 (93%) were laboratory confirmed. Although cause and effect cannot be definitely attributed, the case fatality rate decreased to 3.6% after the intervention with education about dengue management strategies.

Dengue is the most rapidly advancing vector-borne disease with an estimated 50 million dengue infections occurring annually. As a result of major demographic changes rapid urbanization on a massive scale global travel and environmental change the world - particularly the tropical world - faces enormous challenges from emerging infectious diseases. Dengue epitomizes these challenges. In the early years of the 21st century we are collectively failing to meet the threat posed by dengue as the disease spreads unabated and almost 40% of the worlds population now live at risk of contracting it. Because of the rapidly increasing public health importance of dengue the 2002 World Health Assembly Resolution (WHA55.17) urged greater commitment among Member States and WHO to dengue control; of particular significance is the 2005 Revision of the International Health Regulations (WHA58.3) which includes dengue fever as an example of a disease that may constitute an international public health emergency. (excerpt)

Why certain individuals progress to severe dengue disease is unknown. In this study, blood groups associated with dengue disease were investigated. ABO phenotypes were identified by use of serum from 399 patients with dengue-virus infection who participated in a cohort study. ABO blood-group frequencies were similar in primary versus secondary dengue-virus infections. However, in secondary infection, individuals with blood group AB were likely to have dengue hemorrhagic fever grade 3 than either grades 1 and 2 combined (corrected P value

Background Infants born to dengue immune mothers acquire maternal antibodies to dengue. These antibodies, though initially protective, decline during the first year of life to levels thought to be disease enhancing, before reaching undetectable levels. Infants have long been studied to understand the interaction between infection and disease on an individual level. Methods/Findings Considering infants (cases, Author Summary Infants born to dengue immune mothers acquire maternal dengue antibodies. These antibodies, though initially protective, decline during the first year of life to levels thought to be disease enhancing, before reaching undetectable levels. We show that in this population, DENV-2 and DENV-4 almost exclusively cause disease in the presence of dengue antibody, despite infections occurring in others. We also observe serotype-specificity in the mean age of infant cases, consistent with differential waning of antibody to each serotype. These results highlight serotype-specificity in the way the immune response interacts with infection to cause disease. In addition, we show that the mean age of infant cases over time is informative about transmission in the whole population. Therefore, ongoing surveillance for dengue in infants could provide useful insights into dengue epidemiology, particularly after the introduction of a dengue vaccine targeting adults and older children.

Long-term observational studies can provide valuable insights into overall dengue epidemiology. Here, we present analysis of dengue cases at a pediatric hospital in Bangkok, Thailand, during a 40-year period from 1973 to 2012. Data were analyzed from 25,715 hospitalized patients with laboratory-confirmed dengue virus (DENV) infection. Several long-term trends in dengue disease were identified including an increase in mean age of hospitalized cases from an average of 7-8 years, an increase after 1990 in the proportion of post-primary cases for DENV-1 and DENV-3, and a decrease in the proportion of dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome cases in primary and post-primary cases over time. Exploratory mechanistic analysis of these observed trends considered changes in diagnostic methods, demography, force of infection, and Japanese encephalitis vaccination as possible explanations. Thailand is an important setting for studying DENV transmission as it has a "mature" dengue epidemiology with a strong surveillance system in place since the early 1970s. We characterized changes in dengue epidemiology over four decades, and possible impact of demographic and other changes in the human population. These results may inform other countries where similar changes in transmission and population demographics may now or may soon be occurring.

A comparative analysis was performed of the 3′-untranslated region (UTR) of Dengue virus (DENV) sampled from Bangkok, Thailand, over a 30 year period and representing all four serotypes. Considerable genetic variation was observed both within and among serotypes. Notably, a full-length version of the critical 3′-long stable hairpin structure was absent from some isolates, suggesting the occurrence of complex structural interactions within the 3′-UTR, including the influence of upstream mutations. The Thai sequences were then combined with 61 globally sampled isolates of DENV taken from patients with either dengue fever or severe dengue disease. No consistent association was found between 3′-UTR secondary structure and the clinical outcome of DENV infection, although some evidence for a trend in this direction was observed in DENV-2. It was concluded that the 3′-UTR is not the sole determinant of DENV virulence in nature, although variation in secondary structure may greatly influence viral fitness.

The evolution of dengue virus (DENV) is characterized by phylogenetic trees that have a strong temporal structure punctuated by dramatic changes in clade frequency. To determine the cause of these large-scale phylogenetic patterns, we examined the evolutionary history of DENV serotype 1 (DENV-1) and DENV-3 in Thailand, where gene sequence and epidemiological data are relatively abundant over a 30-year period. We found evidence for the turnover of viral clades in both serotypes, most notably in DENV-1, where a major clade replacement event took place in genotype I during the mid-1990s. Further, when this clade replacement event was placed in the context of changes in serotype prevalence in Thailand, a striking pattern emerged; an increase in DENV-1 clade diversity was associated with an increase in the abundance of this serotype and a concomitant decrease in DENV-4 prevalence, while clade replacement was associated with a decline in DENV-1 prevalence and a rise of DENV-4. We postulate that intraserotypic genetic diversification proceeds at times of relative serotype abundance and that replacement events can result from differential susceptibility to cross-reactive immune responses.

Dengue virus circulation and association with epidemics and severe dengue disease were studied in hospitalized children with suspected dengue at the Queen Sirikit National Institute of Child Health in Bangkok, Thailand, from 1973 to 1999. Dengue serology was performed on all patients and viral isolation attempted on laboratory-confirmed patients. Acute dengue was diagnosed in 15,569 children and virus isolated from 4,846. DEN-3 was the most frequent serotype in primary dengue (49% of all isolates), DEN-2 in secondary and in dengue hemorrhagic fever (37% and 35%, respectively). The predominant dengue serotype varied by year: DEN-1 from 1990-92, DEN-2 from 1973-86 and 1988-89; DEN-3 in 1987 and 1995-99; and DEN-4 from 1993-94. Only DEN-3 was associated with severe outbreak years. Our findings illustrate the uniqueness of each serotype in producing epidemics and severe disease and underscore the importance of long-term surveillance of dengue serotypes in understanding the epidemiology of these viruses.

Background The effect of prior dengue virus (DENV) exposure on subsequent heterologous infection can be beneficial or detrimental depending on many factors including timing of infection. We sought to evaluate this effect by examining a large database of DENV infections captured by both active and passive surveillance encompassing a wide clinical spectrum of disease. Methods We evaluated datasets from 17 years of hospital-based passive surveillance and nine years of cohort studies, including clinical and subclinical DENV infections, to assess the outcomes of sequential heterologous infections. Chi square or Fisher’s exact test was used to compare proportions of infection outcomes such as disease severity; ANOVA was used for continuous variables. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess risk factors for infection outcomes. Results Of 38,740 DENV infections, two or more infections were detected in 502 individuals; 14 had three infections. The mean ages at the time of the first and second detected infections were 7.6 ± 3.0 and 11.2 ± 3.0 years. The shortest time between sequential infections was 66 days. A longer time interval between sequential infections was associated with dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in the second detected infection (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.2-1.4). All possible sequential serotype pairs were observed among 201 subjects with DHF at the second detected infection, except DENV-4 followed by DENV-3. Among DENV infections detected in cohort subjects by active study surveillance and subsequent non-study hospital-based passive surveillance, hospitalization at the first detected infection increased the likelihood of hospitalization at the second detected infection. Conclusions Increasing time between sequential DENV infections was associated with greater severity of the second detected infection, supporting the role of heterotypic immunity in both protection and enhancement. Hospitalization was positively associated between the first and second detected infections, suggesting a possible predisposition in some individuals to more severe dengue disease. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-015-1590-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), the most severe form of illness following infection with a dengue virus, is characterized by plasma leakage, thrombocytopenia, and hepatic inflammation. The interrelationships among virus burden, immune activation, and development of DHF were examined in 54 children with secondary dengue-3 virus infections participating in a prospective, hospital-based study. DHF was associated with higher mean plasma viremia early in illness and earlier peak plasma interferon-gamma levels. Maximum plasma viremia levels correlated with the degree of plasma leakage and thrombocytopenia. Maximum plasma levels of interleukin (IL)-10 and soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-II correlated with the degree of thrombocytopenia, independently of viremia levels. Hepatic transaminase elevation correlated with plasma soluble IL-2 receptor levels and not with viremia levels. Quantitative differences in virus burden and host immune responses, and the timing of type 1 cytokine responses, have differing influences on the severity of disease manifestations during secondary dengue-3 virus infections.

Background Dengue viral infections are prevalent in the tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world, resulting in substantial morbidity and mortality. Clinical manifestations range from a self-limited fever to a potential life-threatening plasma leakage syndrome (dengue hemorrhagic fever). The objective of this study was to assess the utility of near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) measurements of muscle oxygen saturation (SmO2) as a possible continuous measure to detect plasma leakage in children with dengue. Methods Children ages 6 months to 15 years of age admitted with suspected dengue were enrolled from the dengue ward at Queen Sirikit National Institute for Child Health. Children were monitored daily until discharge. NIRS data were collected continuously using a prototype CareGuide Oximeter 1100 with sensors placed on the deltoid or thigh. Daily ultrasound of the chest and a right lateral decubitus chest x-ray the day after defervescence were performed to detect and quantitate plasma leakage in the pleural cavity. Results NIRS data were obtained from 19 children with laboratory-confirmed dengue. Average minimum SmO2 decreased for all subjects prior to defervescence. Average minimum SmO2 subsequently increased in children with no ultrasound evidence of pleural effusion but remained low in children with pleural effusion following defervescence. Average minimum SmO2 was inversely correlated with pleural space fluid volume. ROC analysis revealed a cut-off value for SmO2 which yielded high specificity and sensitivity. Conclusions SmO2 measured using NIRS may be a useful guide for real-time and non-invasive identification of plasma leakage in children with dengue. Further investigation of the utility of NIRS measurements for prediction and management of severe dengue syndromes is warranted.

T lymphocyte activation during dengue is thought to contribute to the pathogenesis of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). We examined the T cell receptor Vbeta gene usage by a reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction assay during infection and after recovery in 13 children with DHF and 13 children with dengue fever (DF). There was no deletion of specific Vbeta gene families. We detected significant expansions in usage of single Vbeta families in six subjects with DHF and three subjects with DF over the course of infection, but these did not show an association with clinical diagnosis, viral serotype, or HLA alleles. Differences in Vbeta gene usage between subjects with DHF and subjects with DF were of borderline significance. These data suggest that the differences in T cell activation in DHF and DF are quantitative rather than qualitative and that T cells are activated by conventional antigen(s) and not a viral superantigen.

Viremia titers in serial plasma samples from 168 children with acute dengue virus infection who were enrolled in a prospective study at 2 hospitals in Thailand were examined to determine the role of virus load in the pathogenesis of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). The infecting virus serotype was identified for 165 patients (DEN-1, 46 patients; DEN-2, 47 patients; DEN-3, 47 patients, DEN-4, 25 patients). Patients with DEN-2 infections experienced more severe disease than those infected with other serotypes. Eighty-one percent of patients experienced a secondary dengue virus infection that was associated with more severe disease. Viremia titers were determined for 41 DEN-1 and 46 DEN-2 patients. Higher peak titers were associated with increased disease severity for the 31 patients with a peak titer identified (mean titer of 107.6 for those with dengue fever vs. 108.5 for patients with DHF, P=.01). Increased dengue disease severity correlated with high viremia titer, secondary dengue virus infection, and DEN-2 virus type.

A commercial capture ELISA for specific IgM and IgG antibodies produced during dengue infection (PanBio Dengue Duo) showed excellent sensitivity (99%, n = 78) using sera collected at hospital discharge compared with established ELISA and hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assays. Furthermore, the ELISA was able to diagnose 79% of the dengue cases using sera collected at hospital admission. The ELISA also showed high specificity (92%) in paired sera from patients without flavivirus infection (n = 26), although 45% of the patients with Japanese encephalitis (n = 20) showed elevation of IgG but not IgM. The IgG capture ELISA showed good correlation with the HAI assay (r = 0.83, P < 0.0001), and IgG levels could be used to distinguish between primary and secondary infection, with 100% of primary infections and 96% of secondary infections being correctly classified. This ELISA should prove useful in the clinical diagnosis of dengue infections.

We examined the memory cytotoxic T-lymphocytic (CTL) responses of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) obtained from patients in Thailand 12 months after natural symptomatic secondary dengue virus infection. In all four patients analyzed, CTLs were detected in bulk culture PBMC against nonstructural dengue virus proteins. Numerous CD4 + and CD8 + CTL lines were generated from the bulk cultures of two patients, KPP94-037 and KPP94-024, which were specific for NS1.2a (NS1 and NS2a collectively) and NS3 proteins, respectively. All CTL lines derived from both patients were cross-reactive with other serotypes of dengue virus. The CD8 + NS1.2a-specific lines from patient KPP94-037 were HLA B57 restricted, and the CD8 + NS3-specific lines from patient KPP94-024 were HLA B7 restricted. The CD4 + CTL lines from patient KPP94-037 were HLA DR7 restricted. A majority of the CD8 + CTLs isolated from patient KPP94-024 were found to recognize amino acids 221 to 232 on NS3. These results demonstrate that in Thai patients after symptomatic secondary natural dengue infections, CTLs are mainly directed against nonstructural proteins and are broadly cross-reactive.

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that in recent years has become a major international public health concern. Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), first recognized in Southeast Asia in the 1950s, is today a leading cause of childhood death in many countries. The pathogenesis of this illness is poorly understood, mainly because there are no laboratory or animal models of disease. We have studied the genetic relationships of dengue viruses of serotype 2, one of four antigenically distinct dengue virus groups, to determine if viruses obtained from cases of less severe dengue fever (DF) have distinct evolutionary origins from those obtained from DHF cases. A very large number (73) of virus samples from patients with DF or DHF in two locations in Thailand (Bangkok and Kamphaeng Phet) were compared by sequence analysis of 240 nucleotides from the envelope/nonstructural protein 1 (E/NS1) gene junction of the viral genome. Phylogenetic trees generated with these data have been shown to reflect long-term evolutionary relationships among strains. The results suggest that 1) many different virus variants may circulate simultaneously in Thailand, thus reflecting the quasispecies nature of these RNA viruses, in spite of population immunity; 2) viruses belonging to two previously distinct genotypic groups have been isolated from both DF and DHF cases, supporting the view that they arose from a common progenitor and share the potential to cause severe disease; and 3) viruses associated with the potential to cause DHF segregate into what is now one, large genotypic group and they have evolved independently in Southeast Asia for some time.

Background Currently, no dengue NS1 detection kit has regulatory approval for the diagnosis of acute dengue fever. Here we report the sensitivity and specificity of the InBios DEN Detect NS1 ELISA using a panel of well characterized human acute fever serum specimens. Methodology/Principal Findings The InBios DENV Detect NS1 ELISA was tested using a panel composed of 334 serum specimens collected from acute febrile patients seeking care in a Bangkok hospital in 2010 and 2011. Of these patients, 314 were found to have acute dengue by either RT-PCR and/or anti-dengue IgM/IgG ELISA. Alongside the InBios NS1 ELISA kit, we compared the performance characteristics of the BioRad Platelia NS1 antigen kit. The InBios NS1 ELISA Ag kit had a higher overall sensitivity (86% vs 72.8%) but equal specificity (100%) compared to the BioRad Platelia kit. The serological status of the patient significantly influenced the outcome. In primary infections, the InBios NS1 kit demonstrated a higher sensitivity (98.8%) than in secondary infections (83.5%). We found significant variation in the sensitivity of the InBios NS1 ELISA kit depending on the serotype of the dengue virus and also found decreasing sensitivity the longer after the onset of illness, showing 100% sensitivity early during illness, but dropping below 50% by Day 7. Conclusion/Significance The InBios NS1 ELISA kit demonstrated high accuracy when compared to the initial clinical diagnosis with greater than 85% agreement when patients were clinically diagnosed with dengue illness. Results presented here suggest the accurate detection of circulating dengue NS1 by the InBios DENV Detect NS1 ELISA can provide clinicians with a useful tool for diagnosis of early dengue infections., Author Summary Infections by the mosquito-transmitted dengue virus continue to increase, threatening the health of people in over a hundred countries worldwide. The lack of effective mosquito control, licensed dengue vaccines or specific therapeutics to treat dengue infections presents challenges to reduce the burden of this disease. Rapid and accurate diagnosis of dengue infections is critical for the reduction of patients' morbidity and mortality. We present data that support the use of the InBios DENV Detect NS1 ELISA for the detection of dengue NS1 in patient serum. The InBios NS1 ELISA kit was tested against sera collected from acute fever patients seeking medical care in a Bangkok, Thailand hospital during 2010 and 2011. The data demonstrate the InBios DENV Detect NS1 ELISA accurately detects circulating dengue NS1 in the tested specimens, demonstrating high sensitivity and specificity. Nonetheless, the sensitivity of the NS1 ELISA kits was found to vary depending on the serological status of the patient (primary versus secondary dengue infection), time of specimen collection and dengue serotype. Further, the performance characteristics of the InBios DENV Detect NS1 ELISA were found to meet and exceed those of the commonly used Platelia Dengue NS1 Ag kit.

Cocirculation of two genetic subtypes of dengue serotype 2 viruses was first observed in the 1980 epidemic season in Thailand. To further delineate the evolutionary history and the contribution of these subtypes to subsequent epidemics, we determined the envelope glycoprotein gene sequence of 20 dengue serotype 2 viruses isolated from infected patients during 1987 and compared them with those derived from earlier years. Subtype IIIa strains represented the majority (18 of 19) of dengue type 2 viruses derived from Bangkok metropolitan area, whereas all three strains from a province in the northeastern region belonged to subtype IIIb, indicating uneven local distribution of dengue subtypes within the same year. Three types of sequence variation were identified in both subtypes: substitutions that were unique to individual strains; substitutions that were shared among all subtype IIIa or IIIb viruses of both the 1980 and 1987 epidemics; and those that were shared only among all subtypes IIIa or IIIb viruses of the 1987 epidemic, but were absent from the corresponding subtypes of 1980. While the first and second types of substitution were indicative of the most recent random mutations and previous mutations that had been fixed in virus populations, respectively, the third type suggested possible occurrence of a genetic bottleneck and subsequent expansion of one or a limited number of subtype IIIa strains in Bangkok between 1980 and 1987. Immunoblot analysis of intracellular NS1 antigen with anti-NS1 monoclonal antibodies also revealed antigenic heterogeneity of the NS1 protein that correlated with the subdivision based on envelope protein variation.

Variation in the sequence of T-cell epitopes between dengue virus (DENV) serotypes is believed to alter memory T-cell responses during second heterologous infections. We identified a highly conserved, novel, HLA-B57-restricted epitope on the DENV NS1 protein. We predicted higher frequencies of B57-NS1(26-34) -specific CD8(+) T cells in peripheral blood mononuclear cells from individuals undergoing secondary rather than primary DENV infection. However, high tetramer-positive T-cell frequencies during acute infection were seen in only one of nine subjects with secondary infection. B57-NS1(26-34) -specific and other DENV epitope-specific CD8(+) T cells, as well as total CD8(+) T cells, expressed an activated phenotype (CD69(+) and/or CD38(+)) during acute infection. In contrast, expression of CD71 was largely limited to DENV epitope-specific CD8(+) T cells. In vitro stimulation of cell lines indicated that CD71 expression was differentially sensitive to stimulation by homologous and heterologous variant peptides. CD71 may represent a useful marker of antigen-specific T-cell activation.

It is well-known that the distribution of immunity in a population dictates the future incidence of infectious disease, but this process is generally understood at individual or macroscales. For example, herd immunity to multiple pathogens has been observed at national and city levels. However, the effects of population immunity have not previously been shown at scales smaller than the city (e.g., neighborhoods). In particular, no study has shown long-term effects of population immunity at scales consistent with the spatial scale of person-to-person transmission. Here, we use the location of dengue patients’ homes in Bangkok with the serotype of the infecting pathogen to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of disease risk at small spatial scales over a 5-y period. We find evidence for localized transmission at distances of under 1 km. We also observe patterns of spatiotemporal dependence consistent with the expected impacts of homotypic immunity, heterotypic immunity, and immune enhancement of disease at these distances. Our observations indicate that immunological memory of dengue serotypes occurs at the neighborhood level in this large urban setting. These methods have broad applications to studying the spatiotemporal structure of disease risk where pathogen serotype or genetic information is known.

Seven commercial assays were evaluated to determine their suitability for the diagnosis of acute dengue infection: (i) the Panbio dengue virus Pan-E NS1 early enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), second generation (Alere, Australia); (ii) the Panbio dengue virus IgM capture ELISA (Alere, Australia); (iii) the Panbio dengue virus IgG capture ELISA (Alere, Australia); (iv) the Standard Diagnostics dengue virus NS1 antigen ELISA (Standard Diagnostics, South Korea); (v) the Standard Diagnostics dengue virus IgM ELISA (Standard Diagnostics, South Korea); (vi) the Standard Diagnostics dengue virus IgG ELISA (Standard Diagnostics, South Korea); and (vii) the Platelia NS1 antigen ELISA (Bio-Rad, France). Samples from 239 Thai patients confirmed to be dengue virus positive and 98 Sri Lankan patients negative for dengue virus infection were tested. The sensitivities and specificities of the NS1 antigen ELISAs ranged from 45 to 57% and 93 to 100% and those of the IgM antibody ELISAs ranged from 85 to 89% and 88 to 100%, respectively. Combining the NS1 antigen and IgM antibody results from the Standard Diagnostics ELISAs gave the best compromise between sensitivity and specificity (87 and 96%, respectively), as well as providing the best sensitivity for patients presenting at different times after fever onset. The Panbio IgG capture ELISA correctly classified 67% of secondary dengue infection cases. This study provides strong evidence of the value of combining dengue virus antigen- and antibody-based test results in the ELISA format for the diagnosis of acute dengue infection.

Background Infection with dengue viruses (DENV) causes a wide range of manifestations from asymptomatic infection to a febrile illness called dengue fever (DF), to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). The in vivo targets of DENV and the relation between the viral burden in these cells and disease severity are not known. Method The levels of positive and negative strand viral RNA in peripheral blood monocytes, T/NK cells, and B cells and in plasma of DF and DHF cases were measured by quantitative RT-PCR. Results Positive strand viral RNA was detected in monocytes, T/NK cells and B cells with the highest amounts found in B cells. Viral RNA levels in CD14+ cells and plasma were significantly higher in DHF compared to DF, and in cases with a secondary infection compared to those undergoing a primary infection. The distribution of viral RNA among cell subpopulations was similar in DF and DHF cases. Small amounts of negative strand RNA were found in a few cases only. The severity of plasma leakage correlated with viral RNA levels in plasma and in CD14+ cells. Conclusions B cells were the principal cells containing DENV RNA in peripheral blood, but overall there was little active DENV RNA replication detectable in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC). Secondary infection and DHF were associated with higher viral burden in PBMC populations, especially CD14+ monocytes, suggesting that viral infection of these cells may be involved in disease pathogenesis.

Low-avidity serotype–cross-reactive antibodies are hypothesized to play a key role in triggering severe disease in patients with secondary dengue virus (DENV) infection. However, there is little systematic information about the frequency, avidity, and cross-reactivity of DENV-specific B cells in individuals experiencing primary instead of secondary infection. We compared DENV-specific B-cell responses in a cohort of Thai children with primary or secondary DENV infection. B cells specific for DENV precursor membrane protein, envelope (E) protein, and nonstructural protein 1 were detectable in immune peripheral blood mononuclear cells with the highest frequencies of DENV E-specific B cells detected in patients experiencing primary DENV-1 infections. DENV E-specific B cells were highly serotype-specific after primary DENV infections, whereas most E-specific B cells in patients with secondary infection were serotype–cross-reactive and secreted antibodies with higher avidity to heterologous DENV serotypes. Our data suggest that the minor populations of serotype–cross-reactive B cells generated by primary DENV infection are preferentially expanded during secondary DENV infection.