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2. Demonstrating a decision support process for landscape conservation design.

Author

Bonnot, Thomas W., Jones‐Farrand, D. Todd, Muenks, Nate D., and Thompson, Frank R.

Subjects
LANDSCAPE design, DECISION making, ANIMAL populations, WILDLIFE conservation, BIRD populations, BIRD conservation, WOOD
Abstract

Despite the recent increase in landscape conservation and the design processes agencies are undertaking, there remains an implementation gap due to an inability to evaluate general strategies and account for uncertainties faced by managers. We demonstrated how a decision support process (DSP), recently developed to inform landscape conservation design, can address uncertainties and complexities inherent in landscape conservation to facilitate long‐term, large‐scale conservation planning. We applied the DSP to landscape conservation efforts within conservation opportunity areas (COA) of states in the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks region. We engaged state planners within the region to identify important landscape conservation uncertainties they face in planning. We developed, simulated, and modeled the impacts of conservation addressing 3 uncertainties identified by state wildlife managers and evaluated the impacts by examining the responses of state and local populations of 2 bird species of conservation concern, prairie warbler (Setophaga discolor) and wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina). The responses of prairie warbler populations to conservation strategies indicated that both approaches of protecting quality habitat from land‐use change and restoring and enhancing lower quality and nonhabitat improved their viability at regional, statewide, and COA scales. However, we noted that the relative effectiveness of strategies varied among states in ways that suggest a state's process for delineating COAs and what threats they face could influence which conservation approach to consider. Our findings highlight the need for regional coordination and the use of decision‐support processes to guide effective conservation at landscape scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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46. Urban land cover and El Niño events negatively impact population viability of an endangered North American songbird.

Author

Reidy, Jennifer L., Sinnott, Emily A., Thompson, Frank R., and O'Donnell, Lisa

Subjects
EL Nino, LAND cover, POPULATION viability analysis, SONGBIRDS, ENDANGERED species, POPULATION dynamics, SOUTHERN oscillation, WINTER
Abstract

Population dynamics of migratory species are influenced by land use and climate patterns experienced across the full annual cycle. Identifying environmental factors influencing productivity, survival, and their relative contributions to abundance and population growth is critical for the recovery and management of at‐risk species in the face of continuing global change. The golden‐cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) is an endangered passerine that breeds exclusively in the mixed Ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei)–oak (Quercus) woodlands of Central Texas, USA, and winters at high elevations in Central America. We evaluated the effects of precipitation, climate, and land cover on golden‐cheeked warbler productivity, adult male survival, and territory abundance using data from a long‐term monitoring site, the Balcones Canyonlands Preserve, in Austin, Texas. We jointly analyzed annual productivity, mark–recapture, and territory count data collected on 10 plots from 2011 to 2019 in an integrated population model. The number of young fledged per male territory was negatively related to percent urban land cover within 1 km of monitoring plots, and adult male survival was negatively related to a strong El Niño event. Estimates of population growth and abundance indicated a decline in abundance across our study period. We forecasted population viability 25 years into the future given increases in urban development and frequency of El Niño events. Quasi‐extinction probability increased from 0.17 under current urban land cover conditions and El Niño frequency to 0.41 under the scenario of a 10% increase in urban development around all plots and an increase in El Niño frequency. Productivity and adult survival were positively correlated with population growth, highlighting the need for conservation and management actions to maximize these vital rates on the breeding grounds and range‐wide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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