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This project has targeted utilisation of infrastructure for organic waste treatment in Sweden, in particular sewage sludge, to achieve increased production of high-value materials and energy carriers, reduced use of primary resources, and improved economic performance. We have investigated the sewage sludge management system as a socio-technical system facing a change, with integral connections to the energy and waste systems. In conclusion, there is no silver bullet for the future of sewage sludge management. Indeed, it would have to be a full clip of silver bullets, as we found that a mishmash of different barriers –technical, economic, legal, and related to public perception – creates uncertainty that hinders progress regarding both sustainable long-term strategies and technological advancement. The Swedish sewage sludge management is largely fragmented, highlighting the need to shift directionto a more holistic approach. This can help actors address common issues rather than focussing solely on activity-specific problems. Introducing new legislation could be a key step, as the current specific legislation on sewage sludge has a seemingly insignificant role for today’s sludge management, compared to other legislation and the voluntary certification. We have formulated six overall research highlights, to outline both published results and meta-conclusions based on combined insights. Each highlight is described separately in this report., SMart Avfallsbehandling i Cirkulär eKonomi (SMACK) (Smart waste treatment in the circular economy)

Mitigating the climate impact from aviation remains one of the tougher challenges in adapting society to fulfill stated climate targets. Long-range aviation cannot be electrified for the foreseeable future and the effects of combusting fuel at high altitude increase the climate impact compared to emissions of green-house gasses only, which further limits the range of sustainable fuel alternatives. We investigate seven different pathways for producing aviation biofuels coupled with either bio-energy carbon capture and storage (BECCS), or bio-energy carbon capture and utilization (BECCU). Both options allow for increased efficiency regarding utilization of feedstock carbon. Our analysis uses process-level carbon- and energy balances, with carbon efficiency, climate impact and levelized cost of production (LCOP) as primary performance indicators. The results show that CCS can achieve a negative carbon footprint for four out of the seven pathways, at a lower cost of GHG reduction than the base process option. Conversely, as a consequence of the electricity-intensive CO2 upgrading process, the CCU option shows less encouraging results with higher production costs, carbon footprints and costs of GHG reduction. Overall, pathways with large amounts of vented CO2, e.g., gasification of black liquor or bark, as well as fermentation of forest residues, reach a low GHG reduction cost for the CCS option. These are also pathways with a larger feedstock and corresponding production potential. Our results enable a differentiated comparison of the suitability of various alternatives for BECCS or BECCU in combination with aviation biofuel production. By quantifying the relative strengths and weaknesses of BECCS and BECCU and by highlighting cost, climate and carbon-efficient pathways, these results can be a source of support for both policymakers and the industry., Validerad;2023;Nivå 2;2023-04-21 (sofila)

Hydrothermal carbonization (HTC) can mitigate the disposal costs of sewage sludge in a wastewater treatment plant. This study analyzes the impact of integrating HTC with anaerobic digestion (AD) and combustion from a combined energy and economic performance perspective. Net energy balance and investment opportunity are investigated for a number of technical scenarios considering i) different combinations of the technologies: AD + HTC, AD + thermal dryer + combustion, and AD + HTC + combustion, ii) different options for HTC process water treatment: wet oxidation (WO) + AD, and direct return to AD, and iii) different products: heat-only, heat and electricity, hydrochar, and phosphorus. The results show trade-offs between investment cost, self-supplement of heat, and output electricity when WO is used. In AD + HTC, net heat output decreases compared to the reference plant, but avoided disposal costs and hydrochar revenue result in profitable investment when the process water is directly returned to the AD. Although HTC has a lower heat demand than the thermal dryer, replacing the thermal dryer with HTC is only possible when AD, HTC, and combustion are connected, or when WO covers HTC’s heat demand. HTC may impair the electricity production because of the necessity for a high-temperature heat source, whereas the thermal dryer can utilize a low-temperature heat source. In conclusion, energy advantages of HTC in AD + HTC + combustion are insufficient to provide a promising investment opportunity due to high investment costs of HTC. The investment opportunity improves by co-combustion of hydrochar and external sludge., Validerad;2023;Nivå 2;2023-08-15 (joosat);Licens fulltext: CC BY License;This article has previously appeared as a manuscript in a thesis.

This study evaluates the techno-economic feasibility of energy and phosphorus (P) fertilizer (PF) recovery from municipal sewage sludge (MSS) through incineration in new combustion plants. We evaluated the economic impact of five critical process design choices: (1) boiler type, (2) fuel (MSS mono-combustion/co-combustion with wheat straw), (3) production scale (10/100 MW), (4) products (heat, electricity, PF), and (5) ash destination. Aspen Plus modeling provided mass and energy balances of each technology scenario. The economic feasibility was evaluated by calculating the minimum selling price of the products, as well as the MSS gate fees required to reach profitability. The dependency on key boundary conditions (operating time, market prices, policy support) was also evaluated. The results showed a significant dependency on both energy and fertilizer market prices and on financial support in the form of an MSS gate fee. Heat was preferred over combined heat and power (CHP), which was feasible only on the largest scale (100 MW) at maximum annual operating time (8000 h/y). Co-combustion showed lower heat recovery cost (19–30 €/MWh) than mono-combustion (29–66 €/MWh) due to 25–35% lower energy demand and 17–25% higher fuel heating value. Co-combustion also showed promising performance for P recovery, as PF could be recovered without ash post-treatment and sold at a competitive price, and co-combustion could be applicable also in smaller cities. When implementing ash post-treatment, the final cost of ash-based PF was more than four times the price of commercial PF. In conclusion, investment in a new combustion plant for MSS treatment appears conditional to gate fees unless the boundary conditions would change significantly., Validerad;2022;Nivå 2;2022-03-25 (hanlid)

Biofuels and biochemicals play significant roles in the transition towards a fossil-free society. However, large-scale biorefineries are not yet cost-competitive with their fossil-fuel counterparts, and it is important to identify biorefinery concepts with high economic performance. For evaluating early-stage biorefinery concepts, one needs to consider not only the technical performance and process costs but also the economic performance of the full supply chain and the impacts on feedstock and product markets. This article presents and demonstrates a conceptual interdisciplinary framework that can constitute the basis for evaluations of the full supply-chain performance of biorefinery concepts. This framework considers the competition for biomass across sectors, assumes exogenous end-use product demand, and incorporates various geographical and technical constraints. The framework is demonstrated empirically through a case study of a sawmill-integrated biorefinery producing liquefied biomethane from forestry and forest industry residues. The case study results illustrate that acknowledging biomass market effects in the supply chain evaluation implies changes in both biomass prices and the allocation of biomass across sectors. The proposed framework should facilitate the identification of biorefinery concepts with a high economic performance which are robust to feedstock price changes caused by the increase in biomass demand., Validerad;2020;Nivå 2;2020-09-03 (johcin)

The production of biofuels in Sweden has increased significantly in the past years in order to reduce fossil fuel dependence and mitigate climate impacts. Nonetheless, current methodological guidelines for assessing the GHG savings from the use of biofuels do not fully account for benefits from by-products and other utilities (e.g. waste heat and electricity) from biofuel production. This study therefore reviews the aggregated environmental performance of these multi-functional biofuel systems by assessing impacts and benefits from relevant production processes in Sweden in order to improve the decision base for biofuel producers and policymakers in the transition to a bio-based and circular economy. This was done by (1) conducting a mapping of the Swedish biofuel production portfolio, (2) developing future production scenarios, and (3) application of life cycle assessment methodology to assess the environmental performance of the production processes. Special focus was provided to review the potential benefits from replacing conventional products and services with by-products and utilities. The results provide evidence that failure to account for non-fuel-related benefits from biofuel production leads to an underestimation of the contribution of biofuels to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts when replacing fossil fuels, showing the importance of their multi-functionality., Validerad;2020;Nivå 2;2020-08-17 (johcin)

Promoting the deployment of forest-based drop-in and high blend biofuels is considered strategically important in Sweden but many aspects of the overall performance of the foremost production technologies are as yet unexamined. This paper evaluates the technology maturity, profitability, investment requirements, GHG performance and Swedish biofuel production potential of six commercially interesting forest-based biofuel production pathways. Significant heterogeneity in technology maturity was observed. Lack of technical demonstration in industrially representative scales renders the liquefaction-hydrotreatment route for drop-in biofuels less mature than its gasification-catalytic upgrading counterpart. It is a paradox that short-term priority being accorded to pathways with the lowest technology maturity. Nth-of-a-kind investments in (a) gasification-based methanol, (b) hydropyrolysis-based petrol/diesel, and (c) lignin depolymerization-based petrol/diesel were profitable for a range of plant sizes. The profitability of pulp mill-integrated small gasification units (<100 MW) goes against the common perception of gasification being economically feasible only in large scales. New low-cost options for debottlenecking production at recovery boiler-limited kraft mills appear worth investigating. GHG emission reductions ranged from 66 to 95%; a penalty was incurred for high consumption of natural gas-based hydrogen. Swedish biofuel production potentials ranged from 4 to 27 TWh/y but a more feasible upper limit is 12–15 TWh/y.

Recent global modelling studies suggest a decline of long-distance trade in energy carriers in future global renewable energy systems, compared to today's fossil fuel based system. In contrast, we identify four drivers that facilitate trade of renewable energy carriers. These drivers may lead to trade volumes remaining at current levels or even to an increase during the transition to an energy system with very high shares of renewables. First, new land-efficient technologies for renewable fuel production become increasingly available and technically allow for long-distance trade in renewables. Second, regional differences in social acceptance and land availability for energy infrastructure support the development of renewable fuel import and export streams. Third, the economics of renewable energy systems, i.e. the different production conditions globally and the high costs of fully renewable regional electricity systems, will create opportunities for spatial arbitrage. Fourth, a reduction of stranded investments in the fossil fuel sector is possible by switching from fossil fuels to renewable fuel trade. The impact of these drivers on trade in renewable energy carriers is currently under-investigated by the global energy systems research community. The importance of the topic, in particular as trade can redistribute profits and losses of decarbonization and may hence support finding new partners in climate change mitigation negotiations, warrants further research efforts in this area therefore., Validerad;2019;Nivå 2;2019-08-13 (johcin)

In the endeavour to reduce CO2 emissions from the transport sector, biofuels from forest industry by-products are key. The adaptation of forest-based biorefinery technologies has so far been low which can partly be attributed to uncertainties in the form of policy instability, market prices, and technology costs. These uncertainties in combination with technology learning, which can be expected to reduce future investment costs, could make it favourable to postpone an investment decision. When applying real options theory, it is recognised that there is an opportunity cost associated with the decision to invest, since the option to wait for more favourable market conditions to occur is forfeited. In traditional discounted cash flow analysis, the impact of uncertainty and the value of reducing it (e.g. by waiting), is usually not taken into consideration. This paper uses a real options framework that incorporates the option to postpone an investment to reduce market uncertainties and wait for technology learning to occur. The focus is to investigate how the usage of an investment decision rule based on real options analysis affects technology choice, the economic performance, and when in time it is favourable to invest in pulp mill integrated biofuel production, compared with using a decision rule based on traditional discounted cash flow analysis. As an illustrative case study we examine a pulp mill which has the option, but not the obligation, to invest in either of two different biofuel production technologies that both use the pulp mill by-product black liquor as feedstock: (1) black liquor gasification followed by fuel synthesis, and (2) membrane separation of lignin followed by hydrodeoxygenation. With the usage of the real options framework and the inclusion of the uncertainties regarding future market prices and investment costs, the decision to invest is made later, compared with using traditional cash flow analysis. The usage of real options also reduces th, ISBN för värdpublikation: 978-836150651-5

Iron and steel plants producing steel via the blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) route constitute among the largest single point CO2 emitters within the European Union (EU). As the iron ore reduction process in the blast furnace is fully dependent on carbon mainly supplied by coal and coke, bioenergy is the only renewable that presents a possibility for their partial substitution. Using the BeWhere model, this work optimised the mobilization and use of biomass resources within the EU in order to identify the opportunities that bioenergy can bring to the 30 operating BF-BOF plants. The results demonstrate competition for the available biomass resources within existing industries and economically unappealing prices of the bio-based fuels. A carbon dioxide price of 60 € t−1 is required to substitute 20% of the CO2 emissions from the fossil fuels use, while a price of 140 € t−1 is needed to reach the maximum potential of 42%. The possibility to use organic wastes to produce hydrochar would not enhance the maximum emission reduction potential, but it would broaden the available feedstock during the low levels of substitution. The scope for bioenergy integration is different for each plant and so consideration of its deployment should be treated individually. Therefore, the EU-ETS (Emission Trading System) may not be the best policy tool for bioenergy as an emission reduction strategy for the iron and steel industry, as it does not differentiate between the opportunities across the different steel plants and creates additional costs for the already struggling European steel industry., Validerad;2018;Nivå 2;2018-05-22 (andbra)

This study uses a geographically-explicit cost optimization model to analyze the impact of and interrelation between four cost reduction strategies for biofuel production: economies of scale, intermodal transport, integration with existing industries, and distributed supply chain configurations (i.e. supply chains with an intermediate pre-treatment step to reduce biomass transport cost). The model assessed biofuel production levels ranging from 1 to 150 PJ a1 in the context of the existing Swedish forest industry. Biofuel was produced from forestry biomass using hydrothermal liquefaction and hydroprocessing. Simultaneous implementation of all cost reduction strategies yielded minimum biofuel production costs of 18.1–18.2 € GJ1 at biofuel production levels between 10 and 75 PJ a1. Limiting the economies of scale was shown to cause the largest cost increase (+0–12%, increasing with biofuel production level), followed by disabling integration benefits (+1–10%, decreasing with biofuel production level) and allowing unimodal truck transport only (+0–6%, increasing with biofuel production level). Distributed supply chain configurations were introduced once biomass supply became increasingly dispersed, but did not provide a significant cost benefit (<1%). Disabling the benefits of integration favors large-scale centralized production, while intermodal transport networks positively affect the benefits of economies of scale. As biofuel production costs still exceeds the price of fossil transport fuels in Sweden after implementation of all cost reduction strategies, policy support and stimulation of further technological learning remains essential to achieve cost parity with fossil fuels for this feedstock/technology combination in this spatiotemporal context.

Synthetic time series of renewable energy generation provide important inputs for energy system models that study the transition to low carbon energy systems. The coverage of national energy statistics is usually too short or temporal resolution too low – in particular if meteorological extreme events should be assessed. These extreme events may put high stress on power systems with very high shares of renewables and therefore have to be studied in detail. We use simulated time series of Swedish wind energy generation for a 35 year period based on MERRA reanalysis datasets. The simulation of hydropower generation is more complex and requires hydrological models that combine precipitation data with spatially explicit information on soil type and land cover to simulate river discharge. For this purpose, we use time series of daily river discharge that have been simulated using the open source model HYPE (HYdrological Predictions for the Environment). We compared the derived time series for wind and hydropower generation in the four Swedish bidding areas with respect to their long-term correlation, patterns of seasonality, and length and duration of extreme events. Preliminary results show that expanding wind power capacities could significantly reduce the overall variability of renewable energy generation. Furthermore, the frequency and duration of extreme production events in a combined wind-hydropower system is lower than in a hydropower system only. Further work will study the need for backup capacities in a future Swedish power system with very high shares of hydro, wind and solar power (>90%).

I denna studie analyseras tillgängligheten av och konkurrensen om biobränsle med ett fjärrvärmeperspektiv. Syftet är att bidra till en breddad systemförståelse av interaktionen mellan fjärrvärmesystemet, skogsbiomassasystemet och biodrivmedelssystemet. Utgångspunkten har varit två energisystemmodeller som på olika sätt fångar konkurrens-en om svensk biomassa. Fokus har varit på att (1) identifiera eventuella målkonflikter mellan ökad elproduktion från fjärrvärme, ökad andel biodrivmedel och minskade koldioxidutsläpp, och (2) identifiera hur modellerna kan kommunicera och vidareutvecklas i syfte att förbättra representationen av biomassa i den nationella energisystemanalysen., The availability and competition for woody biomass has been analysed with a district heating perspective with an aim to contribute to a broader system understanding of the interaction between the district heating system, the forest biomass system and the biofuel system. The starting point has been two energy system models that in different ways capture the competition for biomass in Sweden. The focus has been on (1) identifying possible conflicting targets between increased electricity generation from district heating, increased biofuel production and reduced carbon dioxide emissions, and (2) identifying how the models can communicate and be further developed in order to improve the representation of biomass in the national energy system analysis.