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Background Malaria transmission modelling has demonstrated the potential impact of semiquantitative glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) testing and treatment with single-dose tafenoquine for Plasmodium vivax radical cure but has not investigated the associated costs. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of P. vivax treatment with tafenoquine after G6PD testing using a transmission model. Methods and findings We explored the cost-effectiveness of using tafenoquine after G6PD screening as compared to usual practice (7-day low-dose primaquine (0.5 mg/kg/day) without G6PD screening) in Brazil using a 10-year time horizon with 5% discounting considering 4 scenarios: (1) tafenoquine for adults only assuming 66.7% primaquine treatment adherence; (2) tafenoquine for adults and children aged >2 years assuming 66.7% primaquine adherence; (3) tafenoquine for adults only assuming 90% primaquine adherence; and (4) tafenoquine for adults only assuming 30% primaquine adherence. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated by dividing the incremental costs by the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. These were compared to a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of US$7,800 for Brazil, and one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. All 4 scenarios were cost-effective in the base case analysis using this WTP threshold with ICERs ranging from US$154 to US$1,836. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that the results were most sensitive to severity and mortality due to vivax malaria, the lifetime and number of semiquantitative G6PD analysers needed, cost per malaria episode and per G6PD test strips, and life expectancy. All scenarios had a 100% likelihood of being cost-effective at the WTP threshold. The main limitations of this study are due to parameter uncertainty around our cost estimates for low transmission settings, the costs of G6PD screening, and the severity of vivax malaria Conclusions In our modelling study that incorporated impact on transmission, tafenoquine prescribed after a semiquantitative G6PD testing was highly likely to be cost-effective in Brazil. These results demonstrate the potential health and economic importance of ensuring safe and effective radical cure., Author(s): David J. Price 1,2, Narimane Nekkab 3,4, Wuelton M. Monteiro 5,6, Daniel A. M. Villela 7, Julie A. Simpson 2, Marcus V. G. Lacerda 5,8, Michael T. White 9, [...]

Robust surveillance methods are needed for trachoma control and recrudescence monitoring, but existing methods have limitations. Here, we analyse data from nine trachoma-endemic populations and provide operational thresholds for interpretation of serological data in low-transmission and post-elimination settings. Analyses with sero-catalytic and antibody acquisition models provide insights into transmission history within each population. To accurately estimate sero-conversion rates (SCR) for trachoma in populations with high-seroprevalence in adults, the model accounts for secondary exposure to Chlamydia trachomatis due to urogenital infection. We estimate the population half-life of sero-reversion for anti-Pgp3 antibodies to be 26 (95% credible interval (CrI): 21-34) years. We show SCRs below 0.015 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.0-0.049) per year correspond to a prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular below 5%, the current threshold for elimination of active trachoma as a public health problem. As global trachoma prevalence declines, we may need cross-sectional serological survey data to inform programmatic decisions.

A major gap in the Plasmodium vivax elimination toolkit is the identification of individuals carrying clinically silent and undetectable liver-stage parasites, called hypnozoites. This study developed a panel of serological exposure markers capable of classifying individuals with recent P. vivax infections who have a high likelihood of harboring hypnozoites. We measured IgG antibody responses to 342 P. vivax proteins in longitudinal clinical cohorts conducted in Thailand and Brazil and identified candidate serological markers of exposure. Candidate markers were validated using samples from year-long observational cohorts conducted in Thailand, Brazil and the Solomon Islands and antibody responses to eight P. vivax proteins classified P. vivax infections in the previous 9 months with 80% sensitivity and specificity. Mathematical models demonstrate that a serological testing and treatment strategy could reduce P. vivax prevalence by 59-69%. These eight antibody responses can serve as a biomarker, identifying individuals who should be targeted with anti-hypnozoite therapy. Plasmodium vivax can cause a clinically silent liver-stage infection that can reactivate, triggering blood-stage disease. A new test measuring antibody responses can identify P. vivax carriers for targeted treatment intervention., Author(s): Rhea J. Longley [sup.1] [sup.2] [sup.3] , Michael T. White [sup.4] , Eizo Takashima [sup.5] , Jessica Brewster [sup.1] , Masayuki Morita [sup.5] , Matthias Harbers [sup.6] [sup.7] , [...]

Insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spray programs for malaria control are entirely dependent on pyrethroid insecticides. The ubiquitous exposure of Anopheles mosquitoes to this chemistry has selected for resistance in a number of populations. This threatens the sustainability of our most effective interventions but no operationally practicable way of resolving the problem currently exists. One innovative solution involves the co-application of a powerful chemosterilant (pyriproxyfen or PPF) to bed nets that are usually treated only with pyrethroids. Resistant mosquitoes that are unaffected by the pyrethroid component of a PPF/pyrethroid co-treatment remain vulnerable to PPF. There is a differential impact of PPF on pyrethroid-resistant and susceptible mosquitoes that is modulated by the mosquito's behavioural response at co-treated surfaces. This imposes a specific fitness cost on pyrethroid-resistant phenotypes and can reverse selection. The concept is demonstrated using a mathematical model.

BackgroundCurrent vector control strategies focus largely on indoor measures, such as long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS); however mosquitoes frequently feed on sugar sources outdoors, inviting the possibility of novel control strategies. Attractive toxic sugar baits (ATSB), either sprayed on vegetation or provided in outdoor bait stations, have been shown to significantly reduce mosquito densities in these settings.MethodsSimple models of mosquito sugar-feeding behaviour were fitted to data from an ATSB field trial in Mali and used to estimate sugar-feeding rates and the potential of ATSB to control mosquito populations. The model and fitted parameters were then incorporated into a larger integrated vector management (IVM) model to assess the potential contribution of ATSB to future IVM programmes.ResultsIn the Mali experimental setting, the model suggests that about half of female mosquitoes fed on ATSB solution per day, dying within several hours of ingesting the toxin. Using a model incorporating the number of gonotrophic cycles completed by female mosquitoes, a higher sugar-feeding rate was estimated for younger mosquitoes than for older mosquitoes. Extending this model to incorporate other vector control interventions suggests that an IVM programme based on both ATSB and LLINs may substantially reduce mosquito density and survival rates in this setting, thereby substantially reducing parasite transmission. This is predicted to exceed the impact of LLINs in combination with IRS provided ATSB feeding rates are 50% or more of Mali experimental levels. In addition, ATSB is predicted to be particularly effective against Anopheles arabiensis, which is relatively exophilic and therefore less affected by IRS and LLINs.ConclusionsThese results suggest that high coverage with a combination of LLINs and ATSB could result in substantial reductions in malaria transmission in this setting. Further field studies of ATSB in other settings are needed to assess the potential of ATSB as a component in future IVM malaria control strategies.

As progress towards malaria elimination continues, the challenge posed by the parasite species Plasmodium vivax has become more evident. In many regions co-endemic for P. vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, as transmission has declined the proportion of cases due to P. vivax has increased. Novel tools that directly target P. vivax are thus warranted for accelerated elimination. There is currently no advanced vaccine for P. vivax and only a limited number of potential candidates in the pipeline. In this study we aimed to identify promising P. vivax proteins that could be used as part of a subunit vaccination approach. We screened 342 P. vivax protein constructs for their ability to induce IgG antibody responses associated with protection from clinical disease in a cohort of children from Papua New Guinea. This approach has previously been used to successfully identify novel candidates. We were able to confirm previous results from our laboratory identifying the proteins reticulocyte binding protein 2b and StAR-related lipid transfer protein, as well as at least four novel candidates with similar levels of predicted protective efficacy. Assessment of these P. vivax proteins in further studies to confirm their potential and identify functional mechanisms of protection against clinical disease are warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A more sensitive surveillance tool is needed to identify Plasmodium vivax infections for treatment and to accelerate malaria elimination efforts. To address this challenge, our laboratory has developed an eight-antigen panel that detects total IgG as serological markers of P. vivax exposure within the prior 9 months. The value of these markers has been established for use in areas with low transmission. In moderate-high transmission areas, there is evidence that total IgG is more long-lived than in areas with low transmission, resulting in poorer performance of these markers in these settings. Antibodies that are shorter-lived may be better markers of recent infection for use in moderate-high transmission areas. Using a multiplex assay, the antibody temporal kinetics of total IgG, IgG1, IgG3, and IgM against 29 P. vivax antigens were measured over 36 weeks following asymptomatic P. vivax infection in Papua New Guinean children (n = 31), from an area with moderate-high transmission intensity. IgG3 declined faster to background than total IgG, IgG1, and IgM. Based on these kinetics, IgG3 performance was then assessed for classifying recent exposure in a cohort of Peruvian individuals (n = 590; age 3-85 years) from an area of moderate transmission intensity. Using antibody responses against individual antigens, the highest performance of IgG3 in classifying recent P. vivax infections in the prior 9 months was to one of the Pv-fam-a proteins assessed (PVX_125728) (AUC = 0.764). Surprisingly, total IgG was overall a better marker of recent P. vivax infection, with the highest individual classification performance to RBP2b1986-2653 (PVX_094255) (AUC = 0.838). To understand the acquisition of IgG3 in this Peruvian cohort, relevant epidemiological factors were explored using a regression model. IgG3 levels were positively associated with increasing age, living in an area with (relatively) higher transmission intensity, and having three or more PCRdetected blood-stage P. vivax infections within the prior 13 months. Overall, we found that IgG3 did not have high accuracy for detecting recent exposure to P. vivax in the Peruvian cohort, with our data suggesting that this is due to the high levels of prior exposure required to acquire high IgG3 antibody levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The undetectable hypnozoite reservoir for relapsing Plasmodium vivax and P. ovale malarias presents a major challenge for malaria control and elimination in endemic countries. This study aims to directly determine the contribution of relapses to the burden of P. vivax and P. ovale infection, illness, and transmission in Papua New Guinean children. Methods and Findings From 17 August 2009 to 20 May 2010,524 children aged 5-10 y from East Sepik Province in Papua New Guinea (PNG) participated in a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial of blood- plus liver-stage drugs (chloroquine [CQ], 3 d; artemether-lumefantrine [AL], 3 d; and primaquine [PQ], 20 d, 10 mg/kg total dose) (261 children) or blood-stage drugs only (CQ, 3 d; AL, 3 d; and placebo [PL], 20 d) (263 children). Participants, study staff, and investigators were blinded to the treatment allocation. Twenty children were excluded during the treatment phase (PQ arm: 14, PL arm: 6), and 504 were followed actively for 9 mo. During the follow-up time, 18 children (PQ arm: 7, PL arm: 11) were lost to follow-up. Main primary and secondary outcome measures were time to first P. vivax infection (by qPCR), time to first clinical episode, force of infection, gametocyte positivity, and time to first P. ovale infection (by PCR). A basic stochastic transmission model was developed to estimate the potential effect of mass drug administration (MDA) for the prevention of recurrent P. vivax infections. Targeting hypnozoites through PQ treatment reduced the risk of having at least one qPCR-detectable P. vivax or P. ovale infection during 8 mo of follow-up (P. vivax: PQ arm 0.63/y versus PL arm 2.62/y, HR = 0.18 [95% CI 0.14, 0.25], p < 0.001; P. ovale: 0.06 versus 0.14, HR = 0.31 [95% CI 0.13, 0.77], p = 0.011) and the risk of having at least one clinical P. vivax episode (HR = 0.25 [95% CI 0.11,0.61], p = 0.002). PQ also reduced the molecular force of P. vivax blood-stage infection in the first 3 mo of follow-up (PQ arm 1.90/y versus PL arm 7.75/y, incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.21 [95% CI 0.15,0.28], p < 0.001). Children who received PQ were less likely to carry P. vivax gametocytes (IRR = 0.27 [95% CI 0.19,0.38], p < 0.001). PQ had a comparable effect irrespective of the presence of P. vivax blood-stage infection at the time of treatment (p = 0.14). Modelling revealed that mass screening and treatment with highly sensitive quantitative real-time PCR, or MDA with blood-stage treatment alone, would have only a transient effect on P. vivax transmission levels, while MDA that includes liver-stage treatment is predicted to be a highly effective strategy for P. vivax elimination. The inclusion of a directly observed 20-d treatment regime maximises the efficiency of hypnozoite clearance but limits the generalisability of results to real-world MDA programmes. Conclusions These results suggest that relapses cause approximately four of every five P. vivax infections and at least three of every five P. ovale infections in PNG children and are important in sustaining transmission. MDA campaigns combining blood- and liver-stage treatment are predicted to be a highly efficacious intervention for reducing P. vivax and P. ovale transmission. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02143934, Introduction Renewed intensification of global malaria control efforts over the last 15 years have been successful in significantly reducing the global burden of malaria, with many countries in the Asia-Pacific [...]

Abstract Background The control and elimination of malaria requires expanded coverage of and access to effective malaria control interventions such as insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), intermittent preventive treatment (IPT), diagnostic testing and appropriate treatment. Decisions on how to scale up the coverage of these interventions need to be based on evidence of programme effectiveness, equity and cost-effectiveness. Methods A systematic review of the published literature on the costs and cost-effectiveness of malaria interventions was undertaken. All costs and cost-effectiveness ratios were inflated to 2009 USD to allow comparison of the costs and benefits of several different interventions through various delivery channels, across different geographical regions and from varying costing perspectives. Results Fifty-five studies of the costs and forty three studies of the cost-effectiveness of malaria interventions were identified, 78% of which were undertaken in sub-Saharan Africa, 18% in Asia and 4% in South America. The median financial cost of protecting one person for one year was $2.20 (range $0.88-$9.54) for ITNs, $6.70 (range $2.22-$12.85) for IRS, $0.60 (range $0.48-$1.08) for IPT in infants, $4.03 (range $1.25-$11.80) for IPT in children, and $2.06 (range $0.47-$3.36) for IPT in pregnant women. The median financial cost of diagnosing a case of malaria was $4.32 (range $0.34-$9.34). The median financial cost of treating an episode of uncomplicated malaria was $5.84 (range $2.36-$23.65) and the median financial cost of treating an episode of severe malaria was $30.26 (range $15.64-$137.87). Economies of scale were observed in the implementation of ITNs, IRS and IPT, with lower unit costs reported in studies with larger numbers of beneficiaries. From a provider perspective, the median incremental cost effectiveness ratio per disability adjusted life year averted was $27 (range $8.15-$110) for ITNs, $143 (range $135-$150) for IRS, and $24 (range $1.08-$44.24) for IPT. Conclusions A transparent evidence base on the costs and cost-effectiveness of malaria control interventions is provided to inform rational resource allocation by donors and domestic health budgets and the selection of optimal packages of interventions by malaria control programmes.

Abstract Background Intensive anti-malaria campaigns targeting the Anopheles population have demonstrated substantial reductions in adult mosquito density. Understanding the population dynamics of Anopheles mosquitoes throughout their whole lifecycle is important to assess the likely impact of vector control interventions alone and in combination as well as to aid the design of novel interventions. Methods An ecological model of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato populations incorporating a rainfall-dependent carrying capacity and density-dependent regulation of mosquito larvae in breeding sites is developed. The model is fitted to adult mosquito catch and rainfall data from 8 villages in the Garki District of Nigeria (the 'Garki Project') using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and prior estimates of parameters derived from the literature. The model is used to compare the impact of vector control interventions directed against adult mosquito stages - long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLIN), indoor residual spraying (IRS) - and directed against aquatic mosquito stages, alone and in combination on adult mosquito density. Results A model in which density-dependent regulation occurs in the larval stages via a linear association between larval density and larval death rates provided a good fit to seasonal adult mosquito catches. The effective mosquito reproduction number in the presence of density-dependent regulation is dependent on seasonal rainfall patterns and peaks at the start of the rainy season. In addition to killing adult mosquitoes during the extrinsic incubation period, LLINs and IRS also result in less eggs being oviposited in breeding sites leading to further reductions in adult mosquito density. Combining interventions such as the application of larvicidal or pupacidal agents that target the aquatic stages of the mosquito lifecycle with LLINs or IRS can lead to substantial reductions in adult mosquito density. Conclusions Density-dependent regulation of anopheline larvae in breeding sites ensures robust, stable mosquito populations that can persist in the face of intensive vector control interventions. Selecting combinations of interventions that target different stages in the vector's lifecycle will result in maximum reductions in mosquito density.

Abstract Background Phase III trials of the malaria vaccine, RTS, S, are now underway across multiple sites of varying transmission intensity in Africa. Heterogeneity in exposure, vaccine response and waning of efficacy may bias estimates of vaccine efficacy. Methods Theoretical arguments are used to identify the expected effects of a) heterogeneity in exposure to infectious bites; b) heterogeneity in individual's response to the vaccine; and c) waning efficacy on measures of vaccine efficacy from clinical trials for an infection-blocking vaccine. Results Heterogeneity in exposure and vaccine response leads to a smaller proportion of trial participants becoming infected than one would expect in a homogeneous setting. This causes estimates of vaccine efficacy from clinical trials to be underestimated if transmission heterogeneity is ignored, and overestimated if heterogeneity in vaccine response is ignored. Waning of vaccine efficacy can bias estimates of vaccine efficacy in both directions. Conclusions Failure to account for heterogeneities in exposure and response, and waning of efficacy in clinical trials can lead to biased estimates of malaria vaccine efficacy. Appropriate methods to reduce these biases need to be used to ensure accurate interpretation and comparability between trial sites of results from the upcoming Phase III clinical trials of RTS, S.