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Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration.

The essential elements for the structure and function of forest ecosystems are found in relatively predictable proportions in living tissues and soils; however, both the degree of spatial variability in elemental concentrations and their relationship with wildfire history are unclear. Quantifying the association between nutrient concentrations in living plant tissue and surface soils within fire-affected forests can help determine how these elements contribute to biogeochemical resilience. Here, we present elemental concentration data (C, N, P, K, Ca, Mg, S, Fe, Mn, Zn) from 72 foliar and 44 soil samples from a network of 15 sites located in the fire-prone subalpine forests of the northern Rocky Mountains, USA Plant functional type is strongly correlated with carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) – C concentrations are highest in coniferous needles, and N concentrations are highest in broadleaved plant species. The average N/P ratio of foliage among samples is 9.8±0.6 (μ±95% confidence). This suggests that N is the limiting nutrient for these plants, however several factors can complicate the use of N/P ratios to evaluate nutrient status. Average C concentrations in organic soil horizons that were burned in regionally extensive fires in 1910 or 1918CE are lower than those from sites that burned prior to 1901CE (p<0.05). This difference suggests that wildfires reduced the pool of soil C and that the legacy of these fires can be measured a century later. Our results help aid in modeling how changing wildfire regimes will influence biogeochemical cycling in subalpine forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]