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We study the contextual dynamic pricing problem where a firm sells products to $T$ sequentially arriving consumers that behave according to an unknown demand model. The firm aims to maximize its revenue, i.e. minimize its regret over a clairvoyant that knows the model in advance. The demand model is a generalized linear model (GLM), allowing for a stochastic feature vector in $\mathbb R^d$ that encodes product and consumer information. We first show that the optimal regret upper bound is of order $\sqrt{dT}$, up to a logarithmic factor, improving upon existing upper bounds in the literature by a $\sqrt{d}$ factor. This sharper rate is materialised by two algorithms: a confidence bound-type (supCB) algorithm and an explore-then-commit (ETC) algorithm. A key insight of our theoretical result is an intrinsic connection between dynamic pricing and the contextual multi-armed bandit problem with many arms based on a careful discretization. We further study contextual dynamic pricing under the local differential privacy (LDP) constraints. In particular, we propose a stochastic gradient descent based ETC algorithm that achieves an optimal regret upper bound of order $d\sqrt{T}/\epsilon$, up to a logarithmic factor, where $\epsilon>0$ is the privacy parameter. The regret upper bounds with and without LDP constraints are accompanied by newly constructed minimax lower bounds, which further characterize the cost of privacy. Extensive numerical experiments and a real data application on online lending are conducted to illustrate the efficiency and practical value of the proposed algorithms in dynamic pricing.

Change-point detection and estimation procedures have been widely developed in the literature. However, commonly used approaches in change-point analysis have mainly been focusing on detecting change-points within an entire time series (off-line methods), or quickest detection of change-points in sequentially observed data (on-line methods). Both classes of methods are concerned with change-points that have already occurred. The arguably more important question of when future change-points may occur, remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we develop a novel statistical model that describes the mechanism of change-point occurrence. Specifically, the model assumes a latent process in the form of a random walk driven by non-negative innovations, and an observed process which behaves differently when the latent process belongs to different regimes. By construction, an occurrence of a change-point is equivalent to hitting a regime threshold by the latent process. Therefore, by predicting when the latent process will hit the next regime threshold, future change-points can be forecasted. The probabilistic properties of the model such as stationarity and ergodicity are established. A composite likelihood-based approach is developed for parameter estimation and model selection. Moreover, we construct the predictor and prediction interval for future change points based on the estimated model., Comment: 37 pages, 4 figures

Time series segmentation aims to identify potential change-points in a sequence of temporally dependent data, so that the original sequence can be partitioned into several homogeneous subsequences. It is useful for modeling and predicting non-stationary time series and is widely applied in natural and social sciences. Existing segmentation methods primarily focus on only one type of parameter changes such as mean and variance, and they typically depend on laborious tuning or smoothing parameters, which can be challenging to choose in practice. The self-normalization based change-point estimation framework SNCP by Zhao et al. (2022), however, offers users more flexibility and convenience as it allows for change-point estimation of different types of parameters (e.g. mean, variance, quantile and autocovariance) in a unified fashion, and requires effortless tuning. In this paper, the R package SNSeg is introduced to implement SNCP for segmentation of univariate and multivariate time series. An extension of SNCP, named SNHD, is also designed and implemented for change-point estimation in the mean vector of high-dimensional time series. The estimated changepoints as well as segmented time series are available with graphical tools. Detailed examples of SNSeg are given in simulations of multivariate autoregressive processes with change-points.

Recent breakthroughs in Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized scientific literature analysis. However, existing benchmarks fail to adequately evaluate the proficiency of LLMs in this domain, particularly in scenarios requiring higher-level abilities beyond mere memorization and the handling of multimodal data. In response to this gap, we introduce SciAssess, a benchmark specifically designed for the comprehensive evaluation of LLMs in scientific literature analysis. It aims to thoroughly assess the efficacy of LLMs by evaluating their capabilities in Memorization (L1), Comprehension (L2), and Analysis \& Reasoning (L3). It encompasses a variety of tasks drawn from diverse scientific fields, including biology, chemistry, material, and medicine. To ensure the reliability of SciAssess, rigorous quality control measures have been implemented, ensuring accuracy, anonymization, and compliance with copyright standards. SciAssess evaluates 11 LLMs, highlighting their strengths and areas for improvement. We hope this evaluation supports the ongoing development of LLM applications in scientific literature analysis. SciAssess and its resources are available at \url{https://github.com/sci-assess/SciAssess}.

We consider a high-dimensional dynamic pricing problem under non-stationarity, where a firm sells products to $T$ sequentially arriving consumers that behave according to an unknown demand model with potential changes at unknown times. The demand model is assumed to be a high-dimensional generalized linear model (GLM), allowing for a feature vector in $\mathbb R^d$ that encodes products and consumer information. To achieve optimal revenue (i.e., least regret), the firm needs to learn and exploit the unknown GLMs while monitoring for potential change-points. To tackle such a problem, we first design a novel penalized likelihood-based online change-point detection algorithm for high-dimensional GLMs, which is the first algorithm in the change-point literature that achieves optimal minimax localization error rate for high-dimensional GLMs. A change-point detection assisted dynamic pricing (CPDP) policy is further proposed and achieves a near-optimal regret of order $O(s\sqrt{\Upsilon_T T}\log(Td))$, where $s$ is the sparsity level and $\Upsilon_T$ is the number of change-points. This regret is accompanied with a minimax lower bound, demonstrating the optimality of CPDP (up to logarithmic factors). In particular, the optimality with respect to $\Upsilon_T$ is seen for the first time in the dynamic pricing literature, and is achieved via a novel accelerated exploration mechanism. Extensive simulation experiments and a real data application on online lending illustrate the efficiency of the proposed policy and the importance and practical value of handling non-stationarity in dynamic pricing.

Deep speaker embeddings have shown promising results in speaker recognition, as well as in other speaker-related tasks. However, some issues are still under explored, for instance, the information encoded in these representations and their influence on downstream tasks. Four deep speaker embeddings are studied in this paper, namely, d-vector, x-vector, ResNetSE-34 and ECAPA-TDNN. Inspired by human voice mechanisms, we explored possibly encoded information from perspectives of identity, contents and channels; Based on this, experiments were conducted on three categories of speaker-related tasks to further explore impacts of different deep embeddings, including discriminative tasks (speaker verification and diarization), guiding tasks (target speaker detection and extraction) and regulating tasks (multi-speaker text-to-speech). Results show that all deep embeddings encoded channel and content information in addition to speaker identity, but the extent could vary and their performance on speaker-related tasks can be tremendously different: ECAPA-TDNN is dominant in discriminative tasks, and d-vector leads the guiding tasks, while regulating task is less sensitive to the choice of speaker representations. These may benefit future research utilizing speaker embeddings.

This paper concerns about the limiting distributions of change point estimators, in a high-dimensional linear regression time series context, where a regression object $(y_t, X_t) \in \mathbb{R} \times \mathbb{R}^p$ is observed at every time point $t \in \{1, \ldots, n\}$. At unknown time points, called change points, the regression coefficients change, with the jump sizes measured in $\ell_2$-norm. We provide limiting distributions of the change point estimators in the regimes where the minimal jump size vanishes and where it remains a constant. We allow for both the covariate and noise sequences to be temporally dependent, in the functional dependence framework, which is the first time seen in the change point inference literature. We show that a block-type long-run variance estimator is consistent under the functional dependence, which facilitates the practical implementation of our derived limiting distributions. We also present a few important byproducts of our analysis, which are of their own interest. These include a novel variant of the dynamic programming algorithm to boost the computational efficiency, consistent change point localisation rates under temporal dependence and a new Bernstein inequality for data possessing functional dependence. Extensive numerical results are provided to support our theoretical results. The proposed methods are implemented in the R package \texttt{changepoints} \citep{changepoints_R}.

We study the problem of change-point detection and localisation for functional data sequentially observed on a general d-dimensional space, where we allow the functional curves to be either sparsely or densely sampled. Data of this form naturally arise in a wide range of applications such as biology, neuroscience, climatology, and finance. To achieve such a task, we propose a kernel-based algorithm named functional seeded binary segmentation (FSBS). FSBS is computationally efficient, can handle discretely observed functional data, and is theoretically sound for heavy-tailed and temporally-dependent observations. Moreover, FSBS works for a general d-dimensional domain, which is the first in the literature of change-point estimation for functional data. We show the consistency of FSBS for multiple change-point estimations and further provide a sharp localisation error rate, which reveals an interesting phase transition phenomenon depending on the number of functional curves observed and the sampling frequency for each curve. Extensive numerical experiments illustrate the effectiveness of FSBS and its advantage over existing methods in the literature under various settings. A real data application is further conducted, where FSBS localises change-points of sea surface temperature patterns in the south Pacific attributed to El Nino.

In this paper, we study change-point testing for high-dimensional linear models, an important problem that has not been well explored in the literature. Specifically, we propose a quadratic-form cumulative sum (CUSUM) statistic to test the stability of regression coefficients in high-dimensional linear models. The test controls type-I error at any desired level and is robust to temporally dependent observations. We establish its asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis, and demonstrate that it is asymptotically powerful against multiple change-point alternatives and achieves the optimal detection boundary for a wide class of high-dimensional models. We further develop an adaptive procedure to estimate the tuning parameters of the test, making our method practical in applications. Additionally, we extend our approach to localize change-points in the regression time series and establish sharp error bounds for our change-point estimator. Extensive numerical experiments and a real data application in macroeconomics are conducted to demonstrate the promising performance and practical utility of the proposed test.

Dominant researches adopt supervised training for speaker extraction, while the scarcity of ideally clean corpus and channel mismatch problem are rarely considered. To this end, we propose speaker-aware mixture of mixtures training (SAMoM), utilizing the consistency of speaker identity among target source, enrollment utterance and target estimate to weakly supervise the training of a deep speaker extractor. In SAMoM, the input is constructed by mixing up different speaker-aware mixtures (SAMs), each contains multiple speakers with their identities known and enrollment utterances available. Informed by enrollment utterances, target speech is extracted from the input one by one, such that the estimated targets can approximate the original SAMs after a remix in accordance with the identity consistency. Moreover, using SAMoM in a semi-supervised setting with a certain amount of clean sources enables application in noisy scenarios. Extensive experiments on Libri2Mix show that the proposed method achieves promising results without access to any clean sources (11.06dB SI-SDRi). With a domain adaptation, our approach even outperformed supervised framework in a cross-domain evaluation on AISHELL-1., Comment: 5 pages, 4 tables, 4 figures. Submitted to INTERSPEECH 2022

Recently, end-to-end speaker extraction has attracted increasing attention and shown promising results. However, its performance is often inferior to that of a blind source separation (BSS) counterpart with a similar network architecture, due to the auxiliary speaker encoder may sometimes generate ambiguous speaker embeddings. Such ambiguous guidance information may confuse the separation network and hence lead to wrong extraction results, which deteriorates the overall performance. We refer to this as the target confusion problem. In this paper, we conduct an analysis of such an issue and solve it in two stages. In the training phase, we propose to integrate metric learning methods to improve the distinguishability of embeddings produced by the speaker encoder. While for inference, a novel post-filtering strategy is designed to revise the wrong results. Specifically, we first identify these confusion samples by measuring the similarities between output estimates and enrollment utterances, after which the true target sources are recovered by a subtraction operation. Experiments show that performance improvement of more than 1dB SI-SDRi can be brought, which validates the effectiveness of our methods and emphasizes the impact of the target confusion problem., Comment: 5 pages, 1 table, 5 figures. Submitted to INTERSPEECH 2022

We propose a novel and unified framework for change-point estimation in multivariate time series. The proposed method is fully nonparametric, enjoys effortless tuning and is robust to temporal dependence. One salient and distinct feature of the proposed method is its versatility, where it allows change-point detection for a broad class of parameters (such as mean, variance, correlation and quantile) in a unified fashion. At the core of our method, we couple the self-normalization (SN) based tests with a novel nested local-window segmentation algorithm, which seems new in the growing literature of change-point analysis. Due to the presence of an inconsistent long-run variance estimator in the SN test, non-standard theoretical arguments are further developed to derive the consistency and convergence rate of the proposed SN-based change-point detection method. Extensive numerical experiments and relevant real data analysis are conducted to illustrate the effectiveness and broad applicability of our proposed method in comparison with state-of-the-art approaches in the literature.

We study a functional linear regression model that deals with functional responses and allows for both functional covariates and high-dimensional vector covariates. The proposed model is flexible and nests several functional regression models in the literature as special cases. Based on the theory of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS), we propose a penalized least squares estimator that can accommodate functional variables observed on discrete sample points. Besides a conventional smoothness penalty, a group Lasso-type penalty is further imposed to induce sparsity in the high-dimensional vector predictors. We derive finite sample theoretical guarantees and show that the excess prediction risk of our estimator is minimax optimal. Furthermore, our analysis reveals an interesting phase transition phenomenon that the optimal excess risk is determined jointly by the smoothness and the sparsity of the functional regression coefficients. A novel efficient optimization algorithm based on iterative coordinate descent is devised to handle the smoothness and group penalties simultaneously. Simulation studies and real data applications illustrate the promising performance of the proposed approach compared to the state-of-the-art methods in the literature.

We study the estimation and prediction of functional autoregressive~(FAR) processes, a statistical tool for modeling functional time series data. Due to the infinite-dimensional nature of FAR processes, the existing literature addresses its inference via dimension reduction and theoretical results therein require the (unrealistic) assumption of fully observed functional time series. We propose an alternative inference framework based on Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces~(RKHS). Specifically, a nuclear norm regularization method is proposed for estimating the transition operators of the FAR process directly from discrete samples of the functional time series. We derive a representer theorem for the FAR process, which enables infinite-dimensional inference without dimension reduction. Sharp theoretical guarantees are established under the (more realistic) assumption that we only have finite discrete samples of the FAR process. Extensive numerical experiments and a real data application of energy consumption prediction are further conducted to illustrate the promising performance of the proposed approach compared to the state-of-the-art methods in the literature.

In this paper, we model the trajectory of the cumulative confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 (in log scale) via a piecewise linear trend model. The model naturally captures the phase transitions of the epidemic growth rate via change-points and further enjoys great interpretability due to its semiparametric nature. On the methodological front, we advance the nascent self-normalization (SN) technique (Shao, 2010) to testing and estimation of a single change-point in the linear trend of a nonstationary time series. We further combine the SN-based change-point test with the NOT algorithm (Baranowski et al., 2019) to achieve multiple change-point estimation. Using the proposed method, we analyze the trajectory of the cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths for 30 major countries and discover interesting patterns with potentially relevant implications for effectiveness of the pandemic responses by different countries. Furthermore, based on the change-point detection algorithm and a flexible extrapolation function, we design a simple two-stage forecasting scheme for COVID-19 and demonstrate its promising performance in predicting cumulative deaths in the U.S.

In actuarial research, a task of particular interest and importance is to predict the loss cost for individual risks so that informative decisions are made in various insurance operations such as underwriting, ratemaking, and capital management. The loss cost is typically viewed to follow a compound distribution where the summation of the severity variables is stopped by the frequency variable. A challenging issue in modeling such outcome is to accommodate the potential dependence between the number of claims and the size of each individual claim. In this article, we introduce a novel regression framework for compound distributions that uses a copula to accommodate the association between the frequency and the severity variables, and thus allows for arbitrary dependence between the two components. We further show that the new model is very flexible and is easily modified to account for incomplete data due to censoring or truncation. The flexibility of the proposed model is illustrated using both simulated and real data sets. In the analysis of granular claims data from property insurance, we find substantive negative relationship between the number and the size of insurance claims. In addition, we demonstrate that ignoring the frequency-severity association could lead to biased decision-making in insurance operations.

We propose a general approach for change-point detection in dynamic networks. The proposed method is model-free and covers a wide range of dynamic networks. The key idea behind our approach is to effectively utilize the network structure in designing change-point detection algorithms. This is done via an initial step of graphon estimation, where we propose a modified neighborhood smoothing~(MNBS) algorithm for estimating the link probability matrices of a dynamic network. Based on the initial graphon estimation, we then develop a screening and thresholding algorithm for multiple change-point detection in dynamic networks. The convergence rate and consistency for the change-point detection procedure are derived as well as those for MNBS. When the number of nodes is large~(e.g., exceeds the number of temporal points), our approach yields a faster convergence rate in detecting change-points comparing with an algorithm that simply employs averaged information of the dynamic network across time. Numerical experiments demonstrate robust performance of the proposed algorithm for change-point detection under various types of dynamic networks, and superior performance over existing methods is observed. A real data example is provided to illustrate the effectiveness and practical impact of the procedure.

In this paper, we study the problem of multiple change-point detection for a univariate sequence under the epidemic setting, where the behavior of the sequence alternates between a common normal state and different epidemic states. This is a non-trivial generalization of the classical (single) epidemic change-point testing problem. To explicitly incorporate the alternating structure of the problem, we propose a novel model selection based approach for simultaneous inference on both change-points and alternating states. Using the same spirit as profile likelihood, we develop a two-stage alternating pruned dynamic programming algorithm, which conducts efficient and exact optimization of the model selection criteria and has $O(n^2)$ as the worst case computational cost. As demonstrated by extensive numerical experiments, compared to classical general-purpose multiple change-point detection procedures, the proposed method improves accuracy for both change-point estimation and model parameter estimation. We further show promising applications of the proposed algorithm to multiple testing with locally clustered signals, and demonstrate its advantages over existing methods in large scale multiple testing, in DNA copy number variation detection, and in oceanographic study.

Detecting when the underlying distribution changes for the observed time series is a fundamental problem arising in a broad spectrum of applications. In this paper, we study multiple change-point localization in the high-dimensional regression setting, which is particularly challenging as no direct observations of the parameter of interest is available. Specifically, we assume we observe $\{ x_t, y_t\}_{t=1}^n$ where $ \{ x_t\}_{t=1}^n $ are $p$-dimensional covariates, $\{y_t\}_{t=1}^n$ are the univariate responses satisfying $\mathbb{E}(y_t) = x_t^\top \beta_t^* \text{ for } 1\le t \le n $ and $\{\beta_t^*\}_{t=1}^n $ are the unobserved regression coefficients that change over time in a piecewise constant manner. We propose a novel projection-based algorithm, Variance Projected Wild Binary Segmentation~(VPWBS), which transforms the original (difficult) problem of change-point detection in $p$-dimensional regression to a simpler problem of change-point detection in mean of a one-dimensional time series. VPWBS is shown to achieve sharp localization rate $O_p(1/n)$ up to a log factor, a significant improvement from the best rate $O_p(1/\sqrt{n})$ known in the existing literature for multiple change-point localization in high-dimensional regression. Extensive numerical experiments are conducted to demonstrate the robust and favorable performance of VPWBS over two state-of-the-art algorithms, especially when the size of change in the regression coefficients $\{\beta_t^*\}_{t=1}^n $ is small., Comment: 44 pages

This paper develops a unified and computationally efficient method for change-point estimation along the time dimension in a non-stationary spatio-temporal process. By modeling a non-stationary spatio-temporal process as a piecewise stationary spatio-temporal process, we consider simultaneous estimation of the number and locations of change-points, and model parameters in each segment. A composite likelihood-based criterion is developed for change-point and parameters estimation. Under the framework of increasing domain asymptotics, theoretical results including consistency and distribution of the estimators are derived under mild conditions. In contrast to classical results in fixed dimensional time series that the localization error of change-point estimator is $O_{p}(1)$, exact recovery of true change-points can be achieved in the spatio-temporal setting. More surprisingly, the consistency of change-point estimation can be achieved without any penalty term in the criterion function. In addition, we further establish consistency of the number and locations of the change-point estimator under the infill asymptotics framework where the time domain is increasing while the spatial sampling domain is fixed. A computationally efficient pruned dynamic programming algorithm is developed for the challenging criterion optimization problem. Extensive simulation studies and an application to U.S. precipitation data are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed method.

We propose a dependence-aware predictive modeling framework for multivariate risks stemmed from an insurance contract with bundling features - an important type of policy increasingly offered by major insurance companies. The bundling feature naturally leads to longitudinal measurements of multiple insurance risks, and correct pricing and management of such risks is of fundamental interest to financial stability of the macroeconomy. We build a novel predictive model that fully captures the dependence among the multivariate repeated risk measurements. Specifically, the longitudinal measurement of each individual risk is first modeled using pair copula construction with a D-vine structure, and the multiple D-vines are then integrated by a flexible copula. The proposed model provides a unified modeling framework for multivariate longitudinal data that can accommodate different scales of measurements, including continuous, discrete, and mixed observations, and thus can be potentially useful for various economic studies. A computationally efficient sequential method is proposed for model estimation and inference, and its performance is investigated both theoretically and via simulation studies. In the application, we examine multivariate bundled risks in multi-peril property insurance using proprietary data from a commercial property insurance provider. The proposed model is found to provide improved decision making for several key insurance operations. For underwriting, we show that the experience rate priced by the proposed model leads to a 9% lift in the insurer's net revenue. For reinsurance, we show that the insurer underestimates the risk of the retained insurance portfolio by 10% when ignoring the dependence among bundled insurance risks.

This paper proposes a novel multivariate time series model named Copula-linked univariate D-vines (CuDvine), which enables the simultaneous copula-based modeling of both temporal and cross-sectional dependence for multivariate time series. To construct CuDvine, we first build a semiparametric univariate D-vine time series model (uDvine) based on a D-vine. The uDvine generalizes the existing first-order copula-based Markov chain models to Markov chains of an arbitrary-order. Building upon uDvine, we construct CuDvine by linking multiple uDvines via a parametric copula. As a simple and tractable model, CuDvine provides flexible models for marginal behavior and temporal dependence of time series, and can also incorporate sophisticated cross-sectional dependence such as time-varying and spatio-temporal dependence for high-dimensional applications. Robust and computationally efficient procedures, including a sequential model selection method and a two-stage MLE, are proposed for model estimation and inference, and their statistical properties are investigated. Numerical experiments are conducted to demonstrate the flexibility of CuDvine, and to examine the performance of the sequential model selection procedure and the two-stage MLE. Real data applications on the Australian electricity price data demonstrate the superior performance of CuDvine to traditional multivariate time series models.