Search

Despite a long-term trend towards reduction, the gender gap in employment keeps standing in Southern Europe. Numerous potential causes have been individuated, such as the household configuration, women’s human capital, or the institutions that regulate the labour market. Less is known about the role of the locality. This paper explores what covariates influence women’s access to labour markets, and whether it is unevenly distributed across different countries and regions in Southern Europe. The analysis is based on the dataset round 9 (2018) from the European Social Survey. We focus on the following countries available in the dataset: Cyprus, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Italy and Spain are further differentiated into vulnerable and affluent regions according to the regional GDP in 2018. We apply a regression model for the binary response that is the indicator of having been doing paid work for the last 7 days of each individual in the sample. We adopt the Bayesian approach, to derive conclusions via a whole probability distribution, i.e., the posterior of all parameters, given data. The statistical goal is the selection of the most important covariates for access to the labour market, focusing on gender differences. Our analysis finds out that individual characteristics are mediated by household composition. Even though higher education increases women’s employment, the presence of children and having an employed partner reduce such involvement. Moreover, a larger gender gap is detected in vulnerable regions rather than affluent ones, especially in Italy.

PURPOSE: Supplementing investigator-specified variables with large numbers of empirically identified features that collectively serve as 'proxies' for unspecified or unmeasured factors can often improve confounding control in studies utilizing administrative healthcare databases. Consequently, there has been a recent focus on the development of data-driven methods for high-dimensional proxy confounder adjustment in pharmacoepidemiologic research. In this paper, we survey current approaches and recent advancements for high-dimensional proxy confounder adjustment in healthcare database studies. METHODS: We discuss considerations underpinning three areas for high-dimensional proxy confounder adjustment: (1) feature generation-transforming raw data into covariates (or features) to be used for proxy adjustment; (2) covariate prioritization, selection, and adjustment; and (3) diagnostic assessment. We discuss challenges and avenues of future development within each area. RESULTS: There is a large literature on methods for high-dimensional confounder prioritization/selection, but relatively little has been written on best practices for feature generation and diagnostic assessment. Consequently, these areas have particular limitations and challenges. CONCLUSIONS: There is a growing body of evidence showing that machine-learning algorithms for high-dimensional proxy-confounder adjustment can supplement investigator-specified variables to improve confounding control compared to adjustment based on investigator-specified variables alone. However, more research is needed on best practices for feature generation and diagnostic assessment when applying methods for high-dimensional proxy confounder adjustment in pharmacoepidemiologic studies. ispartof: PHARMACOEPIDEMIOLOGY AND DRUG SAFETY vol:31 issue:9 pages:932-943 ispartof: location:England status: published

Inferring the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in an observational study requires adjusting for observed baseline confounders to avoid bias. However, adjusting for all observed baseline covariates, when only a subset are confounders of the effect of interest, is known to yield potentially inefficient and unstable estimators of the treatment effect. Furthermore, it raises the risk of finite-sample bias and bias due to model misspecification. For these stated reasons, confounder (or covariate) selection is commonly used to determine a subset of the available covariates that is sufficient for confounding adjustment. In this article, we propose a confounder selection strategy that focuses on stable estimation of the treatment effect. In particular, when the propensity score model already includes covariates that are sufficient to adjust for confounding, then the addition of covariates that are associated with either treatment or outcome alone, but not both, should not systematically change the effect estimator. The proposal, therefore, entails first prioritizing covariates for inclusion in the propensity score model, then using a change-in-estimate approach to select the smallest adjustment set that yields a stable effect estimate. The ability of the proposal to correctly select confounders, and to ensure valid inference of the treatment effect following data-driven covariate selection, is assessed empirically and compared with existing methods using simulation studies. We demonstrate the procedure using three different publicly available datasets commonly used for causal inference.

Accessible, explicit, high resolution soil information is crucial for land management, resource allocation, and agriculture. This thesis investigates how to build a comprehensive methodological framework to improve Canada’s soil maps by updating existing soil property maps for Middlesex County, Ontario. First, the most accurate soil depth functions to standardized depths per soil property are determined. Next, the highest accuracy covariates per soil property are defined. Finally, interpolation and machine learning algorithms are explored, to find the highest accuracy soil property maps per soil property. Geostatistical and deterministic algorithms can work well to interpolate soil organic matter data; the equal area quadratic spline function accurately standardizes soil profile depths - all horizons being present; and different covariates and soil property prediction methods are necessary for accurate 3D soil property maps for different soil properties at different depths. This methodological framework can be used to refine soil maps for Ontario, Canada. Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs 2020-08-21

In observational studies, the causal effect of a treatment may be confounded with variables that are related to both the treatment and the outcome of interest. In order to identify a causal effect, such studies often rely on the unconfoundedness assumption, i.e., that all confounding variables are observed. The choice of covariates to control for, which is primarily based on subject matter knowledge, may result in a large covariate vector in the attempt to ensure that unconfoundedness holds. However, including redundant covariates can affect bias and efficiency of nonparametric causal effect estimators, e.g., due to the curse of dimensionality. Data-driven algorithms for the selection of sufficient covariate subsets are investigated. Under the assumption of unconfoundedness the algorithms search for minimal subsets of the covariate vector. Based, e.g., on the framework of sufficient dimension reduction or kernel smoothing, the algorithms perform a backward elimination procedure assessing the significance of each covariate. Their performance is evaluated in simulations and an application using data from the Swedish Childhood Diabetes Register is also presented., 27 pages, 2 figures, 11 tables

The paper provides a simple test for deciding, from a given causal diagram, whether two sets of variables have the same bias-reducing potential under adjustment. The test requires that one of the following two conditions holds: either (1) both sets are admissible (i.e., satisfy the back-door criterion) or (2) the Markov boundaries surrounding the manipulated variable(s) are identical in both sets. Applications to covariate selection and model testing are discussed., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Twenty-Sixth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2010)

We describe diagnostic methods for assessing the influence of a single outlier or individual case on the estimates of the asymmetric power transformation (APT) model for ordered categorical response. The APT model includes a wide range of the probability curves of the response including both of symmetric and asymmetric curves. We also discuss methods for assessing the influence of covariate selection. Furthermore, we mention methods for assessing the appropriateness of combing the categories of the response. Two examples are used to illustrate the proposed method.

This thesis contributes to the research area of causal inference, where estimation of the effect of a treatment on an outcome of interest is the main objective. Some aspects of the estimation of average causal effects in observational studies in general, and case-control studies in particular, are explored. An important part of estimating causal effects in an observational study is to control for covariates. The first paper of this thesis concerns the selection of minimal covariate sets sufficient for unconfoundedness of the treatment assignment. A data-driven implementation of two covariate selection algorithms is proposed and evaluated. A common sampling scheme in epidemiology, and when investigating rare events, is the case-control design. In the second paper we study estimators of the marginal causal odds ratio in matched and independent case-control designs. Estimators that, under a logistic regression model, utilize information about the known prevalence of being a case is examined and compared through simulations. The third paper investigates the particular situation where case-control sampled data is reused to estimate the effect of the case-defining event on an outcome of interest. The consequence of ignoring the design when estimating the average causal effect is discussed and a design-weighted matching estimator is proposed. The performance of the estimator is evaluated with simulation experiments, when matching on the covariates directly and when matching on the propensity score. The last paper studies the effect of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) on school achievements using data from the Swedish Childhood Diabetes Register, a population-based incidence register. We apply theoretical results from the second and third papers in the estimation of the average causal effect within the T1DM population. A matching estimator that accounts for the matched case-control design is used.

Sci Total Environ 098OZ Times Cited:0 Cited References Count:68; Lindane [gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (gamma-HCH)] is an organochlorine pesticide with toxic effects on humans. It is bioaccumulative and can remain in soils for long periods, and although its use for crop spraying was banned in France in 1998, it is possible that residues from before this time remain in the soil. The RMQS soil monitoring network consists of soil samples from 2200 sites on a 16 km regular grid across France, collected between 2002 and 2009. We use 726 measurements of the Lindane concentration in these samples to (i) investigate the main explanatory factors for its spatial distribution across France, and (ii) map this distribution. Geostatistics provides an appropriate framework to analyze our spatial dataset, though two issues regarding the data are worth special consideration: first, the harmonization of two subsets of the data (which were analyzed using different measurement processes), and second, the large proportion of data from one of these subsets that fell below a limit of quantification. We deal with these issues using recent methodological developments in geostatistics. Results demonstrate the importance of land use and rainfall for explaining part of the variability of Lindane across France: land use due to the past direct input of Lindane on cropland and its subsequent persistence in the soil, and rainfall due to the re-deposition of volatilized Lindane. Maps show the concentrations to be generally largest in the north and northwest of France, areas of more intensive agricultural land. We also compare levels to some contamination thresholds taken from the literature, and present maps showing the probability of Lindane concentrations exceeding these thresholds across France. These maps could be used as guidelines for deciding which areas require further sampling before some possible remediation strategy could be applied. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

This thesis makes contributions to the statistical research field of causal inference in observational studies. The results obtained are directly applicable in many scientific fields where effects of treatments are investigated and yet controlled experiments are difficult or impossible to implement. In the first paper we define a partially specified directed acyclic graph (DAG) describing the independence structure of the variables under study. Using the DAG we show that given that unconfoundedness holds we can use the observed data to select minimal sets of covariates to control for. General covariate selection algorithms are proposed to target the defined minimal subsets. The results of the first paper are generalized in Paper II to include the presence of unobserved covariates. Morevoer, the identification assumptions from the first paper are relaxed. To implement the covariate selection without parametric assumptions we propose in the third paper the use of a model-free variable selection method from the framework of sufficient dimension reduction. By simulation the performance of the proposed selection methods are investigated. Additionally, we study finite sample properties of treatment effect estimators based on the selected covariate sets. In paper IV we investigate misspecifications of parametric models of a scalar summary of the covariates, the propensity score. Motivated by common model specification strategies we describe misspecifications of parametric models for which unbiased estimators of the treatment effect are available. Consequences of the misspecification for the efficiency of treatment effect estimators are also studied.

Population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) models can be fitted using nonlinear mixed effects modelling (NONMEM). This is an efficient way of learning about drugs and diseases from data collected in clinical trials. Identifying covariates which explain differences between patients is important to discover patient subpopulations at risk of sub-therapeutic or toxic effects and for treatment individualization. Stepwise covariate modelling (SCM) is commonly used to this end. The aim of the current thesis work was to evaluate SCM and to develop alternative approaches. A further aim was to develop a mechanistic PK-PD model describing fasting plasma glucose, fasting insulin, insulin sensitivity and beta-cell mass. The lasso is a penalized estimation method performing covariate selection simultaneously to shrinkage estimation. The lasso was implemented within NONMEM as an alternative to SCM and is discussed in comparison with that method. Further, various ways of incorporating information and propagating knowledge from previous studies into an analysis were investigated. In order to compare the different approaches, investigations were made under varying, replicated conditions. In the course of the investigations, more than one million NONMEM analyses were performed on simulated data. Due to selection bias the use of SCM performed poorly when analysing small datasets or rare subgroups. In these situations, the lasso method in NONMEM performed better, was faster, and additionally validated the covariate model. Alternatively, the performance of SCM can be improved by propagating knowledge or incorporating information from previously analysed studies and by population optimal design. A model was also developed on a physiological/mechanistic basis to fit data from three phase II/III studies on the investigational drug, tesaglitazar. This model described fasting glucose and insulin levels well, despite heterogeneous patient groups ranging from non-diabetic insulin resistant subjects to patients with advanced diabetes. The model predictions of beta-cell mass and insulin sensitivity were well in agreement with values in the literature.

This article is concerned with variable selection methods for the proportional hazards regression model. Including too many covariates causes extra variability and inflated confidence intervals for regression parameters, so regimes for discarding the less informative ones are needed. Our framework has p covariates designated as `protected' while variables from a further set of q covariates are examined for possible in- or exclusion. In addition to deriving results for the AIC method, defined via the partial likelihood, we develop a focussed information criterion that for given interest parameter finds the best subset of covariates. Thus the FIC might find that the best model for predicting median survival time might be different from the best model for estimating survival probabilities, and the best overall model for analysing survival for men might not be the same as the best overall model for analysing survival for women. We also develop methodology for model averaging, where the final estimate of a quantity is a weighted average of estimates computed for a range of submodels. Our methods are illustrated in simulations and for a survival study of Danish skin cancer patients. ispartof: DTEW Research Report 0458 pages:1-32 status: published