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More than 100 countries have communicated or adopted new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and net-zero target pledges. We investigate the impact on global, national, sectoral, and individual greenhouse gas emissions projections under different scenarios based on the announced NDCs and net-zero pledges using the IMAGE integrated assessment model. Our results show that while the net-zero pledges, if implemented, could be an important step forward, they are still not enough to achieve the Paris Agreement goals of well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C by the end of the century. Still, our net-zero scenarios project significant all-sector decarbonization, in particular, electricity; however, certain sectors like industry and transport prove hard to completely abate.

By September 2021, 120 countries had submitted new or updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the UNFCCC in the context of the Paris Agreement. This study analyses the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and macroeconomic impacts of the new NDCs. The total impact of the updated NDCs of these countries on global emission levels by 2030 is an additional reduction of about 3.7 GtCO2e, compared to the previously submitted NDCs. This increases to about 4.1 GtCO2e, if also the lower projected emissions of the other countries are included. However, this total reduction needs to be four times greater to be consistent with keeping global temperature increase to well below 2 °C, and even eight times greater for 1.5 °C. Seven G20 economies have pledged stronger emission reduction targets for 2030 in their updated NDCs, leading to additional aggregated GHG emission reductions of about 3.1 GtCO2e, compared to those in the previous NDCs. The socio-economic impacts of the updated NDCs are limited in major economies, while structural shifts occur away from fossil fuel supply sectors and towards renewable electricity. However, two G20 economies have submitted new targets that will lead to an increase in emissions of about 0.3 GtCO2e, compared to their previous NDCs. The updated NDCs of non-G20 economies contain further net reductions. We conclude that countries should strongly increase the ambition levels of their updated NDC submissions to keep the climate goals of the Paris Agreement within reach.

The number and coverage of climate change mitigation policies have increased in the past twenty years, but important policy adoption gaps remain. To analyse sectoral climate policy in the G20 over time (2000–2019), we compiled a dataset of climate change mitigation-relevant policies and identified 50 key policy options that constitute a comprehensive sectoral climate policy package. Approximately half of these policy options are not widely adopted. Adoption is particularly low for policies that aim to: phase out coal and oil and mandate energy reductions in electricity and heat supply; reduce industrial process emissions and incentivise fuel switch in industry; design urban planning strategies for retrofits; and support the use of renewable energy for cooking and heating/cooling purposes in buildings. Policies to remove fossil fuel subsidies and support carbon dioxide removal also need substantial improvement. However, many policy adoption gaps exist as the coverage of at least one policy option could be improved in each sector. Policy adoption gaps leave at least one-tenth of the G20’s emissions completely uncovered. Filling these gaps is fundamental to realize the full mitigation potential of existing policy options and to advance the transition towards global net zero greenhouse gas emissions. Key policy insights: Mitigation-related policy options can be presented as a matrix by sector to shed light on what constitutes a comprehensive climate policy package; looking across sectoral climate policies helps to unpack and clarify the status of adoption. Policy adoption gaps exist in all sectors. Increasing the sectoral coverage of climate policies will help to ensure that all relevant sectoral emissions and mitigation areas are considered in national mitigation efforts. Even if an increase in policy coverage alone does not ensure emission reductions, the absence of policy coverage indicates that emissions can still be further reduced and that a portion of global emissions remain uncovered by policies. Despite the observed increase in the number and coverage of climate policies, slow progress towards reducing global emissions and meeting the collective Paris climate goals calls for more comprehensive climate change mitigation policies. Filling policy adoption gaps presents a concrete strategy to improve sectoral, national and global climate policy.

Globally, the opportunity to use COVID-19 fiscal rescue and recovery spending to accelerate the low-carbon transition has largely been missed so far: the share of low-carbon fiscal spending ranges between 0.5%–2.5% in studies considering both rescue and recovery spending and 18%–30% for studies considering recovery spending alone. This report analyses the potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated rescue and recovery packages on greenhouse gas emissions to 2030, focusing on three main aspects: 1) What happened to activities and greenhouse gas emissions in 2020, and what are the preliminary estimates for 2021? 2) How did the 2020 and 2021 emissions changes affect pathways through to 2030? 3) What is the expected impact of fiscal recovery packages on emissions through to 2030?

Due to errors made during the production process, the printed version of the article contained one duplicate reference, which led to an inconsistent numbering in the reference list, and one incorrect citation in Table 3. The online version of the article has been updated with the corrections. The authors would like to apologize for any inconvenience caused.

Despite the significant volume of fiscal recovery measures announced by countries to deal with the COVID-19 crisis, most recovery plans allocate a low percentage to green recovery. We present scenarios exploring the medium- and long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis and develop a Green Recovery scenario using three well-established global models to analyze the impact of a low-carbon focused stimulus. The results show that a Green Recovery scenario, with 1% of global GDP in fiscal support directed to mitigation measures for 3 years, could reduce global CO2 emissions by 10.5–15.5% below pre-COVID-19 projections by 2030, closing 8–11.5% of the emissions gap with cost-optimal 2°C pathways. The share of renewables in global electricity generation is projected to reach 45% in 2030, the uptake of electric vehicles would be accelerated, and energy efficiency in the buildings and industry sector would improve. However, such a temporary investment should be reinforced with sustained climate policies after 2023 to put the world on a 2°C pathway by mid-century.

Due to errors made during the production process, the printed version of the article contained one duplicate reference, which led to an inconsistent numbering in the reference list, and one incorrect citation in Table 3. The online version of the article has been updated with the corrections. The authors would like to apologize for any inconvenience caused.

Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossil-fuel-dependent countries.

One of the most fundamental questions surrounding the new Paris Agreement is whether countries’ proposals to reduce GHG emissions after 2020 are equally ambitious, considering differences in circumstances between countries. We review a variety of approaches to assess the ambition of the GHG emission reduction proposals by countries. The approaches are applied illustratively to the mitigation part of the post-2020 climate proposals (nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) by China, the EU, and the US. The analysis reveals several clear trends, even though the results differ per individual assessment approach. We recommend that such a comprehensive ambition assessment framework, employing a large variety of approaches, is used in the future to capture a wide spectrum of perspectives on ambition. POLICY RELEVANCE Assessing the ambition of the national climate proposals is particularly important as the Paris Agreement asks for regular reviews of national contributions, keeping in mind that countries raise their ambition over time. Such an assessment will be an important part of the regular global stocktake that will take place every five years, starting with a ‘light’ version in 2018. However, comprehensive methods to assess the proposals are lacking. This article provides such a comprehensive assessment framework.