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In this paper, we explore how the power wielded by regional incumbents has impacted subnational innovation agendas. Our findings suggest that the design of mission-oriented innovation policies should be more attentive to regional innovation policies and their relationship to how innovation may serve to bolster incumbents and not undermine them. We use a case-study of innovation in fossil fuels. Recently, innovation policy literature has explored innovation policy and global climate as a major topic. On the one hand, carbon lock-in has been used to explain why there has been such difficulty in reducing carbon emissions, in many cases, despite an increasing emphasis of mission-innovation policies. On the other hand, mission-innovation policies are believed to be a key to the development of disruptive innovations that could break this carbon intensive path dependency. Although the two literatures explore the same problem, there could be more integration. While carbon lock-in is being considered in the mission-innovation literature, it nevertheless has been largely overlooked at the mission-setting stage. On the other hand, the lock-in literature has tended to overlook the findings of mission-oriented innovation literature in offering solutions, which suggests that there is a more productive role for mission-oriented innovations in breaking free of previous constraints to serve in the low-carbon energy transition. To make our case, we argue it is important to distinguish among the various impacts disruptive innovations have on the market shares of incumbents'. We propose the following three schema: new market, market rewarding and market destroying. By variegating the potential impact of innovations, we suggest that mission-oriented innovation polices may be designed to only support certain types of innovations that do not directly undermine the market share of incumbents. Using a detailed case study of the Province of Alberta, Canada, we then explore the role of the province's mission-oriented policy in the development of technology to produce the Canadian oil sands. The case study illustrates how incumbents influenced the establishment and direction of the mission's goal. Shifts in incumbency opposition toward the province's mission-oriented innovation policy coincided with the changing impact of the innovation from being market destroying to market rewarding. We suggest that future research should be more attentive to the role of incumbents in influencing mission-oriented innovation policy and the importance of their influence at the mission-setting stage. Furthermore, we suggest that to meet the grand challenge of addressing climate change through mission-oriented innovation policies, these policies must be designed to break free of these institutional constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents results from a survey on attitudes toward climate change in Alberta, Canada, home to just 10% of Canada's population, but the source of 35% of the country's greenhouse-gas emissions (Environment Canada ). Results show high levels of awareness, but much lower levels of perceived climate change impacts for one's self or region. Women expressed significantly greater awareness and sense of perceived impacts about climate change than men; however, gender differences appear predominantly associated with socioeconomic factors. Indeed, in all, political ideology had the strongest predictive value, with individuals voting for the conservative party significantly less likely to anticipate significant societal climate change impacts. This finding, in turn, is strongly associated with beliefs regarding whether climate change is human induced. Particularly notable is the finding that the gender gap in climate change beliefs and perceived impacts is not attributed to gendered social roles, as indicated by occupational and familial status. Instead, gender distinctions appear to be related to the lower tendency for women to ascribe to a conservative political ideology relative to men. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant phenology networks of citizen scientists have a long history and have recently contributed to our understanding of climate change effects on ecosystems. This paper describes the development of the Alberta and Canada PlantWatch programs, which coordinate networks of citizen scientists who track spring development timing for common plants. Tracking spring phenology is highly suited to volunteers and, with effective volunteer management, observers will stay loyal to a phenology program for many years. Over two decades beginning in 1987, Alberta PlantWatch volunteers reported 47,000 records, the majority contributed by observers who participated for more than 9 years. We present a quantitative analysis of factors that determine the quality of this phenological data and explore sources of variation. Our goal is to help those who wish to initiate new observer networks with an analysis of the effectiveness of program protocols including selected plant species and bloom stages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The spatial extent of western Canada’s current epidemic of mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), is increasing. The roles of the various dispersal processes acting as drivers of range expansion are poorly understood for most species. The aim of this paper is to characterize the movement patterns of the mountain pine beetle in areas where range expansion is occurring, in order to describe the fine-scale spatial dynamics of processes associated with mountain pine beetle range expansion. Location Three regions of Canada’s Rocky Mountains: Kicking Horse Pass, Yellowhead Pass and Pine Pass. Methods Data on locations of mountain pine beetle-attacked trees of predominantly lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta var. latifolia) were obtained from annual fixed-wing aircraft surveys of forest health and helicopter-based GPS surveys of mountain pine beetle-damaged areas in British Columbia and Alberta. The annual (1999–2005) spatial extents of outbreak ranges were delineated from these data. Spatial analysis was conducted using the spatial–temporal analysis of moving polygons (STAMP), a recently developed pattern-based approach. Results We found that distant dispersal patterns (spot infestations) were most often associated with marginal increases in the areal size of mountain pine beetle range polygons. When the mountain pine beetle range size increased rapidly relative to the years examined, local dispersal patterns (adjacent infestation) were more common. In Pine Pass, long-range dispersal (> 2 km) markedly extended the north-east border of the mountain pine beetle range. In Yellowhead Pass and Kicking Horse Pass, the extension of the range occurred incrementally via ground-based spread. Main conclusions Dispersal of mountain pine beetle varies with geography as well as with host and beetle population dynamics. Although colonization is mediated by habitat connectivity, during periods of low overall habitat expansion, dispersal to new distant locations is common, whereas during periods of rapid invasion, locally connected spread is the dominant mode of dispersal. The propensity for long-range transport to establish new beetle populations, and thus to be considered a driver of range expansion, is likely to be determined by regional weather patterns, and influenced by local topography. We conclude that STAMP appears to be a useful approach for examining changes in biogeograpical ranges, with the potential to reveal both fine- and large-scale patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Commercial forestry programs normally use locally collected seed for reforestation under the assumption that tree populations are optimally adapted to local environments. However, in western Canada this assumption is no longer valid because of climate trends that have occurred over the last several decades. The objective of this study is to show how we can arrive at reforestation recommendations with alternative species and genotypes that are viable under a majority of climate change scenarios. Methodology/Principal Findings: In a case study for commercially important tree species of Alberta, we use an ecosystembased bioclimate envelope modeling approach for western North America to project habitat for locally adapted populations of tree species using multi-model climate projections for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. We find that genotypes of species that are adapted to drier climatic conditions will be the preferred planting stock over much of the boreal forest that is commercially managed. Interestingly, no alternative species that are currently not present in Alberta can be recommended with any confidence. Finally, we observe large uncertainties in projections of suitable habitat that make reforestation planning beyond the 2050s difficult for most species. Conclusion/Significance: More than 50,000 hectares of forests are commercially planted every year in Alberta. Choosing alternative planting stock, suitable for expected future climates, could therefore offer an effective climate change adaptation strategy at little additional cost. Habitat projections for locally adapted tree populations under observed climate change conform well to projections for the 2020s, which suggests that it is a safe strategy to change current reforestation practices and adapt to new climatic realities through assisted migration prescriptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) are currently listed as threatened in Canada, with populations in the province of Alberta expected to decline as much as 50 percent over the next 8–15 yr. We assessed the future of caribou habitat across a region of northeast Alberta using a model of habitat‐quality and projections of future climate from three general circulation models. We used mapped climatic and topo‐edaphic properties to project future upland vegetation cover and a fire simulation model to project the frequency and extent of wildfires. Based on those projections, we quantified the future habitat of caribou according to estimates of nutritional resources and predation risk derived from vegetation cover type and stand age. Grassland vegetation covered up to half of the study area by the 2080s, expanding from <1% in the present and contributing to a significant contraction in mixedwood and coniferous forests. This change in vegetation would increase the risk of predation and disease, as habitat becomes more suitable for white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and, consequently, gray wolves (Canis lupus). Borne out, these changes would severely compromise the long‐term persistence of caribou in the boreal forest of Alberta. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]