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Background: Radio/chemotherapy and immune systems provide examples of hormesis, as tumours can be stimulated (or reduced) at low radio/chemical or antibody doses but inhibited (or stimulated) by high doses. Methods: Interactions between effector cells, tumour cells and cytokines with pulsed radio/chemo-immunotherapy were modelled using a pulse differential system. Results: Our results show that radio/chemotherapy (dose) response curves (RCRC) and/or immune response curves (IRC) or a combination of both, undergo homeostatic changes or catastrophic shifts revealing hormesis in many parameter regions. Some mixed response curves had multiple humps, posing challenges for interpretation of clinical trials and experimental design, due to a fuzzy region between an hormetic zone and the toxic threshold. Mixed response curves from two parameter bifurcation analyses demonstrated that low-dose radio/chemotherapy and strong immunotherapy counteract side-effects of radio/chemotherapy on effector cells and cytokines and stimulate effects of immunotherapy on tumour growth. The implications for clinical applications were confirmed by good fits to our model of RCRC and IRC data. Conclusions: The combination of low-dose radio/chemotherapy and high-dose immunotherapy is very effective for many solid tumours. The net benefit and synergistic effect of combined therapy is conducive to the treatment and inhibition of tumour cells. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the COVID-19 pandemic, control measures, especially massive contact tracing following prompt quarantine and isolation, play an important role in mitigating the disease spread, and quantifying the dynamic contact rate and quarantine rate and estimate their impacts remain challenging. To precisely quantify the intensity of interventions, we develop the mechanism of physics-informed neural network (PINN) to propose the extended transmission-dynamics-informed neural network (TDINN) algorithm by combining scattered observational data with deep learning and epidemic models. The TDINN algorithm can not only avoid assuming the specific rate functions in advance but also make neural networks follow the rules of epidemic systems in the process of learning. We show that the proposed algorithm can fit the multi-source epidemic data in Xi'an, Guangzhou and Yangzhou cities well, and moreover reconstruct the epidemic development trend in Hainan and Xinjiang with incomplete reported data. We inferred the temporal evolution patterns of contact/quarantine rates, selected the best combination from the family of functions to accurately simulate the contact/quarantine time series learned by TDINN algorithm, and consequently reconstructed the epidemic process. The selected rate functions based on the time series inferred by deep learning have epidemiologically reasonable meanings. In addition, the proposed TDINN algorithm has also been verified by COVID-19 epidemic data with multiple waves in Liaoning province and shows good performance. We find the significant fluctuations in estimated contact/quarantine rates, and a feedback loop between the strengthening/relaxation of intervention strategies and the recurrence of the outbreaks. Moreover, the findings show that there is diversity in the shape of the temporal evolution curves of the inferred contact/quarantine rates in the considered regions, which indicates variation in the intensity of control strategies adopted in various regions. Author summary: When applying the compartment model to simulate the disease transmission dynamics, some parameters or particular functions are assumed to describe the intensity of the control interventions. However, these preset specific functions may not accurately quantify the intervention strategies, which brings great challenges to accurately make prediction and evaluation. In this study, we developed an extended transmission-dynamics-informed neural network algorithm by integrating deep neural network with epidemic model. Even for insufficient case data, the proposed algorithm can still help us reconstruct the temporal evolution trend of the epidemic and infer unknown parameters. We inferred the time series on contract rate and quarantine rate for six regions based on the case data, on which the reasonable and interpretable functions, describing the dynamic variation in the intensity of control strategies, can be successfully selected and determined. The inferred contact/quarantine rates in various regions show the diverse shapes and regional dependent, and hence the variation in the intensity of control measures. This suggests the dynamic zero-case policy exhibits the different efficacy in reducing contacts and increasing the quarantine and isolation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a Filippov switching model which is composed of the Lorenz and Chen systems. By employing the qualitative analysis techniques of nonsmooth dynamical systems, we show that the new Filippov system not only inherits the properties of the Lorenz and Chen systems but also presents new dynamics including new chaotic attractors such as four-wing butterfly attractor, Lorenz attractor with sliding segments, etc. In particular, we find that different new attractors can coexist such as the coexistence of two-point attractors and chaotic attractor, the coexistence of two-point attractors and quasi-periodic solution, the coexistence of transient transition chaos and quasi-periodic solution. Furthermore, nonsmooth bifurcations and numerical analyses reveal that the proposed Filippov system has a series of new sliding bifurcations including a symmetric pair of sliding mode bifurcations, a symmetric pair of sliding Hopf bifurcations, and a symmetric pair of Hopf-like boundary equilibrium bifurcations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Roguing and replanting are the most common strategies to control plant diseases and pests. How to build the mathematical models of plant virus transmission and consider the impact of roguing and replanting strategies on plant virus eradication is of great practical significance. In the present paper, we propose the mathematical models for plant virus transmission with continuous and impulsive roguing control. For the model with continuous control strategies, the threshold values for the existences and stabilities of multiple equilibria have been given, and the effect of roguing strategies on the threshold values is also addressed. Furthermore, the model with impulsive roguing control tactics is proposed, and the existence and stability of the plant-only and disease-free periodic solutions of the model are investigated by calculating several threshold values. Moreover, when selecting the design control strategy to minimize the threshold, we systematically analyze the existence of the optimal times of roguing infected plants within a replanting cycle, which is of great significance to the design and optimization of the prevention and control strategy of plant virus transmission. Finally, numerical investigations are given to reveal the main conclusions, and the biological implications of the main results are briefly discussed in the last section. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By assuming a periodic variation in the intrinsic growth rate of the prey, a nonlinear ecological system with periodic forcing and state-dependent feedback control is proposed. The main purpose of the present paper is to study the dynamical behavior generated by periodic forcing and nonlinear impulse perturbations and their effects on pest control. To do this, we first investigate the existence and stability of the boundary periodic solution, and then we employ the numerical bifurcation techniques, mainly including one-dimensional and two-dimensional parameter bifurcation analyses, to reveal that the system exhibits rich and complex dynamic behaviors. Especially, period-adding bifurcation with chaos is found in the two-parameter bifurcation plane. Moreover, we find the periodic structure similar to Arnold tongues, and they are arranged according to the sequence of a Farey tree. In addition, one-dimensional bifurcation diagrams reveal the existence of order- k periodic, and chaotic solutions, multiple coexisting attractors, period-doubling bifurcations, period-halving bifurcations, and so on. Finally, the effects of the initial population density of pests and natural enemies on the pulse frequency and the biological significance related to the numerical results are studied and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A nonlinear discrete switching host-parasitoid model with Holling type II functional response function, in which the switch is guided by an economic threshold (ET), is proposed. Thus, if the weighted density of two generations of the host population increases and exceeds the ET, then integrated pest management (IPM) measures are enacted, i.e., biological and chemical measures are implemented together, assuming that the chemical immediately precedes the biological inputs to avoid pesticide-induced deaths of the natural enemies. First, the existence and local stability of the equilibria of two subsystems were studied, and the existence and coexistence of several types of equilibria of a nonlinear switching system were analysed. Next, the nonlinear switching system was investigated by numerical simulation, showing that the system exhibits quite complex dynamic behaviour. A two-dimensional bifurcation diagram revealed the existence and coexistence regions of different types of equilibria including regular and virtual equilibria. Moreover, period-adding bifurcations in two-dimensional parameter spaces were found. One-dimensional bifurcation diagrams revealed that the system has periodic, quasiperiodic, and chaotic solutions, Neimark–Sacker bifurcation, multiple coexisting attractors, period-doubling bifurcations, period-halving bifurcations, and so on. Finally, the initial densities of hosts and parasitoids associated with host outbreaks and their biological implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The idea of action threshold depends on the pest density and its change rate is more general and furthermore can produce new modelling techniques related to integrated pest management (IPM) as compared with those that appeared in earlier studies, which definitely bring challenges to analytical analysis and generate new ideas to the state control measures. Keeping this in mind, using the strategies of IPM, we develop a prey-predator system with action threshold depending on the pest density and its change rate, and study its dynamical behavior. We develop new criteria guaranteeing the existence, uniqueness, local and global stability of order-1 periodic solutions. Applying the properties of Lambert W function, the Poincaré map is portrayed for the exact phase set, which is helpful to provide the sufficient conditions for the existence and stability of the interior order-1 periodic solutions and boundary order-1 periodic solution, also confirmed by numerical simulations. It is studied in detail that how and under what conditions the fixed point of Poincaré map and its stability are affected by the newly introduced action threshold. The analytical methods developed in this paper will be very beneficial to study other generalized models with state-dependent feedback control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of pesticide resistance significantly affects the outcomes of pest control. A quantitative depiction of the effects of pesticide resistance development on integrated pest management (IPM) strategies and pest control outcomes is challenging. To address this problem, a discrete host-parasitoid model with pesticide resistance development and IPM strategies is proposed and analyzed. The threshold condition of pest eradication which reveals the relationship between the development of pest resistance and the rate of natural enemy releases is provided and analyzed, and the optimal rate for releasing natural enemies was obtained based on this threshold condition. Furthermore, in order to reduce adverse effects of the pesticide on natural enemies, the model has been extended to consider the spraying of pesticide and releases of natural enemies at different times. The effects of the dynamic complexity and different resistance development equations on the main results are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A planar predator–prey impacting system model with a nonmonotonic functional response function is proposed and analyzed. The existence and stability of a boundary order-1 periodic solution were investigated and the threshold conditions for a transcritical bifurcation and stable switching were obtained, and also the definition and properties of the Poincaré map are discussed. The main results indicate that multiple discontinuous points of the Poincaré map could induce the coexistence of multiple order-1 periodic solutions. Numerical analyses reveal the complex dynamics of the model including periodic adding and halving bifurcations, which could result in multiple active phases, among them rapid spiking and quiescence phases which can switch from one to another and consequently create complex bursting patterns. The main results reveal that it is beneficial to restore the stability and balance of a ecosystem for species with group defence by moderately reducing population densities and the group defence capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study considers the robust stability for impulsive complex-valued neural networks (CVNNs) with discrete time delays. By applying the homeomorphic mapping theorem and some inequalities in a complex domain, some sufficient conditions are obtained to prove the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium for the CVNNs. By constructing appropriate Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals and employing the complex-valued matrix inequality skills, the study finds the conditions to guarantee its global robust stability. A numerical simulation illustrates the correctness of the proposed theoretical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

HIV can infect cells via virus-to-cell infection or cell-to-cell viral transmission. These two infection modes may occur in a synergistic way and facilitate viral spread within an infected individual. In this paper, we developed an HIV latent infection model including both modes of transmission and time delays between viral entry and integration or viral production. We analysed the model by defining the basic reproductive number, showing the existence, positivity and boundedness of the solution, and proving the local and global stability of the infection-free and infected steady states. Numerical simulations have been performed to illustrate the theoretical results and evaluate the effects of time delays and fractions of infection leading to latency on the virus dynamics. The estimates of the relative contributions to the HIV latent reservoir and the virus population from the two modes of transmission have also been provided. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In order to comprehend the effects of the duration of pesticide residual effectiveness on successful pest control, a stochastic integrated pest management (IPM) model with pesticides which have residual effects is proposed. Firstly, we show that our model has a global and positive solution and give its explicit expression when pest goes extinct. Then the sufficient conditions for pest extinction combined with the ones for the global attractivity of the pest solution only chemical control are established. Moreover, we also derive sufficient conditions for weak persistence which show that the solution of stochastic IPM models is stochastically ultimately bounded under some conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insects such as locusts and some moths can transform from a solitarious phase when they remain in loose populations and a gregarious phase, when they may swarm. Therefore, the key to effective management of outbreaks of species such as the desert locust Schistocercagregaria is early detection of when they are in the threshold state between the two phases, followed by timely control of their hopper stages before they fledge because the control of flying adult swarms is costly and often ineffective. Definitions of gregarization thresholds should assist preventive control measures and avoid treatment of areas that might not lead to gregarization. In order to better understand the effects of the threshold density which represents the gregarization threshold on the outbreak of a locust population, we developed a model of a discrete switching system. The proposed model allows us to address: (1) How frequently switching occurs from solitarious to gregarious phases and vice versa; (2) When do stable switching transients occur, the existence of which indicate that solutions with larger amplitudes can switch to a stable attractor with a value less than the switching threshold density?; and (3) How does random perturbation influence the switching pattern? Our results show that both subsystems have refuge equilibrium points, outbreak equilibrium points and bistable equilibria. Further, the outbreak equilibrium points and bistable equilibria can coexist for a wide range of parameters and can switch from one to another. This type of switching is sensitive to the intrinsic growth rate and the initial values of the locust population, and may result in locust population outbreaks and phase switching once a small perturbation occurs. Moreover, the simulation results indicate that the switching transient patterns become identical after some generations, suggesting that the evolving process of the perturbation system is not related to the initial value after some fixed number of generations for the same stochastic processes. However, the switching frequency and outbreak patterns can be significantly affected by the intensity of noise and the intrinsic growth rate of the locust population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a Holling II predator–prey model with nonlinear pulse as state-dependent feedback control strategy and then provide a comprehensively qualitative analysis by using the theories of impulsive semi-dynamical systems. First, the Poincaré map is constructed based on the domains of impulsive and phase sets which are defined according to the phase portraits of the model. Second, the threshold conditions for the existence and stability of the semi-trivial periodic solution are given, and subsequently an order-1 periodic solution is generated through the transcritical bifurcation. Furthermore, the different parameter spaces for the existence and stability of an order-1 periodic solution are investigated. In addition, the existence and nonexistence of order- k ( k ≥ 2 ) periodic solutions have been studied theoretically. Moreover, the numerical investigations are presented in order to substantiate our theoretical results and show the complex dynamics of proposed model. Finally, some biological implications of the mathematical results are discussed in the conclusion section. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the present paper, we perform a complete bifurcation analysis of a two-stage population model, in which the per capita birth rate and stage transition rate from juveniles to adults are density dependent and take the general Beverton-Holt functions. Our study reveals a rich bifurcation structure including codimension-one bifurcations such as saddle-node, Hopf, homoclinic bifurcations, and codimension-two bifurcations such as Bogdanov-Takens (BT), Bautin bifurcations, etc. Moreover, by employing the polynomial analysis and approximation techniques, the existences of equilibria, Hopf and BT bifurcations as well as the formulas for calculating their bifurcation sets have been provided. Finally, the complete bifurcation diagrams and associate phase portraits are obtained not only analytically but also confirmed and extended numerically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main purpose is to develop novel analytical techniques and provide a comprehensive qualitative analysis of global dynamics for a state-dependent feedback control system arising from biological applications including integrated pest management. The model considered consists of a planar system of differential equations with state-dependent impulsive control. We characterize the impulsive and phase sets, using the phase portraits of the planar system and the Lambert W function to define the Poincaré map for impulsive point series defined in the phase set. The existence, local and global stability of an order-1 limit cycle and obtain sharp sufficient conditions for the global stability of the boundary order-1 limit cycle have been provided. We further examine the flip bifurcation related to the existence of an order-2 limit cycle. We show that the existence of an order-2 limit cycle implies the existence of an order-1 limit cycle. We derive sufficient conditions under which any trajectory initiating from a phase set will be free from impulsive effects after finite state-dependent feedback control actions, and we also prove that order- k ( $k\geq3$) limit cycles do not exist, providing a solution to an open problem in the integrated pest management community. We then investigate multiple attractors and their basins of attraction, as well as the interior structure of a horseshoe-like attractor. We also discuss implications of the global dynamics for integrated pest management strategy. The analytical techniques and qualitative methods developed in the present paper could be widely used in many fields concerning state-dependent feedback control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the present study is to apply simple ODE models in the area of modeling the spread of emerging infectious diseases and show the importance of model selection in estimating parameters, the basic reproduction number, turning point, and final size. To quantify the plausibility of each model, given the data and the set of four models including Logistic, Gompertz, Rosenzweg, and Richards models, the Bayes factors are calculated and the precise estimates of the best fitted model parameters and key epidemic characteristics have been obtained. In particular, for Ebola the basic reproduction numbers are 1.3522 (95% CI (1.3506, 1.3537)), 1.2101 (95% CI (1.2084, 1.2119)), 3.0234 (95% CI (2.6063, 3.4881)), and 1.9018 (95% CI (1.8565, 1.9478)), the turning points are November 7,November 17, October 2, and November 3, 2014, and the final sizes until December 2015 are 25794 (95% CI (25630, 25958)), 3916 (95% CI (3865, 3967)), 9886 (95% CI (9740, 10031)), and 12633 (95% CI (12515, 12750)) for West Africa, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, respectively. The main results confirm that model selection is crucial in evaluating and predicting the important quantities describing the emerging infectious diseases, and arbitrarily picking a model without any consideration of alternatives is problematic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fragmented habitat patches between which plants and animals can disperse can be modeled as networks with varying degrees of connectivity. A predator-prey model with network structures is proposed for integrated pest management (IPM) with impulsive control actions. The model was analyzed using numerical methods to investigate how factors such as the impulsive period, the releasing constant of natural enemies and the mode of connections between the patches affect pest outbreak patterns and the success or failure of pest control. The concept of the cluster as defined by Holland and Hastings is used to describe variations in results ranging from global synchrony when all patches have identical fluctuations to n-cluster solutions with all patches having different dynamics. Heterogeneity in the initial densities of either pest or natural enemy generally resulted in a variety of cluster oscillations. Surprisingly, if n > 1, the clusters fall into two groups one with low amplitude fluctuations and the other with high amplitude fluctuations (i.e. duality in phase space), implying that control actions radically alter the system's characteristics by inducing duality and more complex dynamics. When the impulsive period is small enough, i.e. the control strategy is undertaken frequently, the pest can be eradicated. As the period increases, the pest's dynamics shift from a steady state to become chaotic with periodic windows and more multicluster oscillations arise for heterogenous initial density distributions. Period-doubling bifurcation and periodic halving cascades occur as the releasing constant of the natural enemy increases. For the same ecological system with five differently connected networks, as the randomness of the connectedness increases, the transient duration becomes smaller and the probability of multicluster oscillations appearing becomes higher. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Combining biological and chemical control has been an efficient strategy to combat the evolution of pesticide resistance. Continuous releases of natural enemies could reduce the impact of a pesticide on them and the number to be released should be adapted to the development of pesticide resistance. To provide some insights towards this adaptation strategy, we developed a novel pest–natural enemy model considering both resistance development and inoculative releases of natural enemies. Three releasing functions which ensure the extinction of the pest population are proposed and their corresponding threshold conditions obtained. Aiming to eradicate the pest population, an analytic formula for the number of natural enemies to be released was obtained for each of the three different releasing functions, with emphasis on their biological implications. The results can assist in the design of appropriate control strategies and decision-making in pest management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Locusts and some noctuid moths exhibit polyphenism whereby they can change their “phase” from a solitary (“solitarious”) condition to a gregarious one. Gregarious phase insects are often migratory travelling from recession areas into larger invasion zones and, among locusts, occur in swarms. Difference equation models of the population dynamics of insects that take account of such changes between solitarious or gregarious phases in relation to predation, both with and without time delays, are described. Solutions of the models are non-linear. Chaotic solutions are obtainable under some circumstances even with very low values for the intrinsic rate of increase in the prey population, in contrast to previous conclusions from models without predation. Comparisons with the results obtained for single species with those obtained in this paper show that predation can reduce (i) the average density of the prey, (ii) durations of periods when the populations stay in the gregarious phase, and (iii) the frequency of their shifts from the solitarious state to the gregarious form. Similar results are obtained if a time delay is introduced to mimic a transient phase. With a wide range of parameter values, models including predation with or without random perturbation reveal several stable attractors for phase diagrams of the populations, which are biologically meaningful compared with empirical datasets and which were unobtainable without predation, suggesting that inclusion of predation and time delays improved the realism of the models. However, comparisons between autocorrelation analyses of locust time-series, but of swarms only, with those of model outputs suggest that inclusion of the time delay leads to less, not more, realism. The prediction of non-linearity in the dynamics of migrant insects with phase changes and its significance for forecasting to aid control is briefly discussed in relation to published data on the desert locust Schistocerca gregaria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A Filippov system is proposed to describe the stage structured nonsmooth pest growth with threshold policy control (TPC). The TPC measure is represented by the total density of both juveniles and adults being chosen as an index for decisions on when to implement chemical control strategies. The proposed Filippov system can have three pieces of sliding segments and three pseudo-equilibria, which result in rich sliding mode bifurcations and local sliding bifurcations including boundary node (boundary focus, or boundary saddle) and tangency bifurcations. As the threshold density varies the model exhibits the interesting global sliding bifurcations sequentially: touching → buckling → crossing → sliding homoclinic orbit to a pseudo-saddle → crossing → touching bifurcations. In particular, bifurcation of a homoclinic orbit to a pseudo-saddle with a figure of eight shape, to a pseudo-saddle-node or to a standard saddle-node have been observed for some parameter sets. This implies that control outcomes are sensitive to the threshold level, and hence it is crucial to choose the threshold level to initiate control strategy. One more sliding segment (or pseudo-equilibrium) is induced by the total density of a population guided switching policy, compared to only the juvenile density guided policy, implying that this control policy is more effective in terms of preventing multiple pest outbreaks or causing the density of pests to stabilize at a desired level such as an economic threshold. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Epidemic zoning is an important option in a series of measures for the prevention and control of infectious diseases. We aim to accurately assess the disease transmission process by considering the epidemic zoning, and we take two epidemics with distinct outbreak sizes as an example, i.e., the Xi'an epidemic in late 2021 and the Shanghai epidemic in early 2022. Methods: For the two epidemics, the total cases were clearly distinguished by their reporting zone and the Bernoulli counting process was used to describe whether one infected case in society would be reported in control zones or not. Assuming the imperfect or perfect isolation policy in control zones, the transmission processes are respectively simulated by the adjusted renewal equation with case importation, which can be derived on the basis of the Bellman-Harris branching theory. The likelihood function containing unknown parameters is then constructed by assuming the daily number of new cases reported in control zones follows a Poisson distribution. All the unknown parameters were obtained by the maximum likelihood estimation. Results: For both epidemics, the internal infections characterized by subcritical transmission within the control zones were verified, and the median control reproduction numbers were estimated as 0.403 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.352, 0.459) in Xi'an epidemic and 0.727 (95% CI: 0.724, 0.730) in Shanghai epidemic, respectively. In addition, although the detection rate of social cases quickly increased to 100% during the decline period of daily new cases until the end of the epidemic, the detection rate in Xi'an was significantly higher than that in Shanghai in the previous period. Conclusions: The comparative analysis of the two epidemics with different consequences highlights the role of the higher detection rate of social cases since the beginning of the epidemic and the reduced transmission risk in control zones throughout the outbreak. Strengthening the detection of social infection and strictly implementing the isolation policy are of great significance to avoid a larger-scale epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although single factors such as rainfall are known to affect the population dynamics of Aedes albopictus, the main vector of dengue fever in Eurasia, the synergistic effects of different meteorological factors are not fully understood. To address this topic, we used meteorological data and mosquito-vector association data including Breteau and ovitrap indices in key areas of dengue outbreaks in Guangdong Province, China, to formulate a five-stage mathematical model for Aedes albopictus population dynamics by integrating multiple meteorological factors. Unknown parameters were estimated using a genetic algorithm, and the results were analyzed by k-Shape clustering, random forest and grey correlation analysis. In addition, the population density of mosquitoes in 2022 was predicted and used for evaluating the effectiveness of the model. We found that there is spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the effects of temperature and rainfall and their distribution characteristics on the diapause period, the numbers of peaks in mosquito densities in summer and the annual total numbers of adult mosquitoes. Moreover, we identified the key meteorological indicators of the mosquito quantity at each stage and that rainfall (seasonal rainfall and annual total rainfall) was more important than the temperature distribution (seasonal average temperature and temperature index) and the uniformity of rainfall annual distribution (coefficient of variation) for most of the areas studied. The peak rainfall during the summer is the best indicator of mosquito population development. The results provide important theoretical support for the future design of mosquito vector control strategies and early warnings of mosquito-borne diseases. Author summary: The study and control of the numbers of Aedes albopictus, the main vector of dengue fever in China, is crucial for the prevention and control of this mosquito-borne disease. Due to the major impact of rainfall and temperature on mosquito population sizes, we built a mathematical model based on the life cycle of mosquitoes and meteorological and mosquito vector monitoring data in Guangdong Province. Through this model, we explored the effects of temperature, rainfall and their distribution characteristics on the development of the mosquito population and found that they had different effects on the developing stages of mosquitoes in different periods and different locations. Moreover, according to the established meteorological indicators and their importance ranking, it was found that for most areas of Guangdong Province, rainfall was more important than the temperature distribution and the evenness of rainfall distribution, and that the peak rainfall in summer was the best predictor of mosquito population development. In addition, we also developed a method to utilize previous experience in mosquito control, which together with the above conclusions will be of great help in the design of future mosquito vector control strategies and the prediction and early warning of mosquito-borne diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Optimal timing (or Economic Threshold) and dosage of pesticide applications which maximize the profit function depend on many factors including pest population demography, crop susceptibility to damage and the rate at which a pesticide loses its toxicity. To analyze the effects of these factors on pest management, several pest control models with single and multiple treatments are presented by using impulsive differential equations. That is, pest control models with a single treatment and with multiple treatments of pesticides sprayed at fixed moments and unfixed moments (i.e. the model with an Economic Threshold) were investigated. In particular, choosing the maximum profits as the management objective, we investigated profit function directed at the problems of optimal timing of pesticide applications, Economic Threshold and optimal dosage of pesticides. Several sufficient conditions which guarantee the existences of optimum timing, dosage and Economic Threshold are provided. This approach can be used with more general models involving age structure of pest populations and the effects of stochastic factors. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper we use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to carry out Bayesian inference for piecewise stochastic logistic growth models using discretely observed data sets, which allows us to fit models for time series data, including data on fish productions and yields, with structural changes. The estimation framework involves the introduction of latent data points between each pair of observations, and the use of MCMC techniques, based on the Gibbs sampling algorithm, in conjunction with the Euler–Maruyama discretization scheme. These methods are used to sample from the posterior distribution using exact bridges, allowing estimation of the model parameters including switching point(s). We apply our methods to examples involving both simulated data and real data for fisheries resources management. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Sufficient conditions are obtained for the global attractivity of the positive equilibrium of the delay-logistic equation with impulsive effect N˙(t)=r(t)N(t)K−Np(t−τ)/K+c(t)Np(t−τ),N(τk+)=N(τk)expIklnN(τk)/Kp,N(τk+)=N(τk)expIklnN(τk)/Kp, where r(t), c(t) are continuous functions, p, K, τ are positive constants, and {τk}k=1∞ denotes the sequence of impulsive time which assumed to be strictly increasing. Some special cases are also considered. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We subject the classical Volterra predator--prey ecosystem model with age structure for predator to periodic forcing, which in its unforced state has a globally stable focus as its equilibrium. The periodic forcing is affected by assuming a periodic variation in the intrinsic growth rate of prey. By using the Poincaré surface-of-section technique and numerical experiments, an abundance of periodic solutions, quasiperiodic solutions and chaotic solutions are revealed. The route of transitions to chaos were found to be very complex which include quasiperiodicity and frequency locking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A ratio-dependent predator–prey model with time lag for predator is proposed and analyzed. Mathematical analyses of the model equations with regard to boundedness of solutions, nature of equilibria, permanence, and stability are analyzed. We note that for a ratio-dependent system local asymptotic stability of the positive steady state does not even guarantee the so-called persistence of the system and, therefore, does not imply global asymptotic stability. It is found that an orbitally asymptotically stable periodic orbit exists in that model. Some sufficient conditions which guarantee the global stability of positive equilibrium are given. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper, an antitumour model for characterising radiotherapy and immunotherapy processes at different fixed times is proposed. The global attractiveness of the positive periodic solution for each corresponding subsystem is proved with the integral inequality technique. Then, based on the differentiability of the solutions with respect to the initial values, the eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix at a fixed point corresponding to the tumour-free periodic solution are determined, resulting in a sufficient condition for local stability. The solutions to the ordinary differential equations are compared, the threshold condition for the global attractiveness of the tumour-free periodic solution is provided in terms of an indicator R 0 , and the permanence of a system with at least one tumour-present periodic solution is investigated. Furthermore, the effects of the death rate, effector cell injection dosage, therapeutic period, and effector cell activation rate on indicator R 0 are determined through numerical simulations, and the results indicate that radioimmunotherapy is more effective than either radiotherapy or immunotherapy alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An expectation for optimal integrated pest management is that the instantaneous numbers of natural enemies released should depend on the densities of both pest and natural enemy in the field. For this, a generalised predator–prey model with nonlinear impulsive control tactics is proposed and its dynamics is investigated. The threshold conditions for the global stability of the pest-free periodic solution are obtained based on the Floquet theorem and analytic methods. Also, the sufficient conditions for permanence are given. Additionally, the problem of finding a nontrivial periodic solution is confirmed by showing the existence of a nontrivial fixed point of the model's stroboscopic map determined by a time snapshot equal to the common impulsive period. In order to address the effects of nonlinear pulse control on the dynamics and success of pest control, a predator–prey model incorporating the Holling type II functional response function as an example is investigated. Finally, numerical simulations show that the proposed model has very complex dynamical behaviour, including period-doubling bifurcation, chaotic solutions, chaos crisis, period-halving bifurcations and periodic windows. Moreover, there exists an interesting phenomenon whereby period-doubling bifurcation and period-halving bifurcation always coexist when nonlinear impulsive controls are adopted, which makes the dynamical behaviour of the model more complicated, resulting in difficulties when designing successful pest control strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: China's Guangdong Province experienced a major dengue outbreak in 2014. Here we investigate if the weather conditions contributing to the outbreak can be elucidated by multi-scale models. Methods: A multi-scale modelling framework, parameterized by available weather, vector and human case data, was used to examine the integrative effect of temperature and precipitation variation on the effective reproduction number (ERN) of dengue fever. Results: With temperature in the range of 25–30 °C, increasing precipitation leads to an increase in the ERN with an average lag of 10 days. With monthly precipitation fixed, the more regular the pattern of rainfall (i.e. higher numbers of rainy days), the larger is the total number of adult mosquitoes. A rainfall distribution peaking in June and July produces a large ERN, beneficial to transmission. Climate conditions conducive to major outbreaks within a season are a combination of relatively high temperature, high precipitation peaking in June and July, and uninterrupted drizzle or regular rainfall. Conclusions: Evaluating a set of weather conditions favourable to a future major dengue outbreak requires near-future prediction of temperature variation, total rainfall and its peaking times. Such information permits seasonal rapid response management decisions due to the lags between the precipitation events and the realisation of the ERN. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to avoid high extinction risks of prey and keep the stability of the three-species food chain model, we introduce a Filippov food chain model (FFCM) with Holling type II under threshold policy control. The threshold policy is designed to play a pivotal strategy for controlling the three species in the FFCM. With this strategy, no control is applied if the density of the prey population is less than the threshold, thus the exploitation is forbidden. However, the exploitation is permitted if the density of the prey population increases and exceeds the threshold. The dynamic behaviors and the bifurcation sets of this model including the existence and stability of different types of equilibria are discussed analytically and numerically. Moreover, the regions of sliding and crossing segments are analyzed. The dynamic behaviors of sliding mode including the bifurcation sets of pseudo-equilibria are investigated. Numerically, the bifurcation diagram and maximum Lyapunov exponents are computed and plotted to show the complex dynamics of FFCM, for instance, it has stable periodic, double periodic and chaotic solutions as well as double periodic sliding bifurcation. It is demonstrated that the threshold policy control can be easily implemented and used for stabilizing the chaotic behavior of FFCM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The robust stability for the impulsive complex-valued neural networks with mixed time delays is considered in this paper. Based on the homeomorphic mapping theorem, some sufficient conditions are proposed for the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium point. By constructing appropriate Lyapunov–Krasovskii functions and employing modulus inequality techniques, the global robust stability theorem is obtained for the neural networks in complex domain. Finally, numerical simulations confirm the stability of the system and manifest that the complex-valued neural networks work efficiently on storing and retrieving the image patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Since January 23 2020, stringent measures for controlling novel coronavirus epidemics have been enforced and strengthened in mainland China. • Most infected cases have been quarantined or put in suspected class, which had been ignored in existing models. • Results of our model show that the trend of the epidemics mainly depends on quarantined and suspected cases. • It is important to continue enhancing the quarantine and isolation strategy and improving the detection rate in mainland China. Since January 23, 2020, stringent measures for controlling the novel coronavirus epidemic have been gradually enforced and strengthened in mainland China. The detection and diagnosis have been improved, as well. However, the daily reported cases remaining at a high level make the epidemic trend prediction difficult. Since the traditional SEIR model does not evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies, a novel model in line with the current epidemic's process and control measures was proposed, utilizing multisource datasets including the cumulative number of reported, deceased, quarantined and suspected cases. Results show that the trend of the epidemic mainly depends on quarantined and suspected cases. The predicted cumulative numbers of quarantined and suspected cases nearly reached static states, and their inflection points have already been achieved, with the epidemic's peak coming soon. The estimated effective reproduction numbers using model-free and model-based methods are decreasing, as well as new infections, while newly reported cases are increasing. Most infected cases have been quarantined or put in the suspected class, which has been ignored in existing models. The uncertainty analyses reveal that the epidemic is still uncertain, and it is important to continue enhancing the quarantine and isolation strategy and improving the detection rate in mainland China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region bears a relatively high burden of HIV/AIDS infection. The number of accumulatively reported HIV/AIDS cases in Guangxi is the third highest among 31 provinces or Autonomous Region from 2004 to 2007, changed to the second highest between 2011 and 2013, then returned to the third highest again after 2014. We aim to estimate the new infections and evaluate the real-time HIV epidemic in Guangxi, China, in order to reveal the rule of HIV transmission.Methods: Firstly, the number of annually reported HIV and AIDS cases, as well as the number of cases linked with CD4 data are extracted from the HIV/AIDS information system in China. Secondly, two CD4-staged models are formulated by linking the with-host information on CD4 level to between-host transmission and surveillance data. Thirdly, new HIV infections, diagnosis rates and undiagnosed infections over time are estimated by using Bayesian method and Maximum Likelihood Estimation method.Results: The data reveal that the newly reported cases have been decreasing since 2011, while lots of cases are identified at late CD4 stage. The data fitted results indicate that both models can describe the trend of the epidemic well. The estimation results show that the new and undiagnosed infections began to decrease from the period2006 - 2008. However, the diagnosis probabilities/rates keep at a very low level, and there are still a large number of infections undiagnosed, most of which have a large probability to be identified at late CD4 stage.Conclusions: Our findings suggest that HIV/AIDS epidemic in Guangxi has been controlled to a certain extent, while the diagnosis rate still needs to be improved. More attentions should be paid to identify infections at their early CD4 stages. Meanwhile, comprehensive intervention measures should be continually strengthened in avoid of the rebound of new infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Since January 23rd 2020, stringent measures for controlling the novel coronavirus epidemics have been enforced and strengthened in mainland China. • Most infected cases have been quarantined or put in suspected class, which has been ignored in existing models. • Results of our model show that the trend of the epidemics mainly depends on quarantined and suspected cases. • It is important to continue enhancing the quarantine and isolation strategy and improving the detection rate in mainland China. Since January 23rd 2020, stringent measures for controlling the novel coronavirus epidemics have been gradually enforced and strengthened in mainland China. The detection and diagnosis have been improved as well. However, the daily reported cases staying in a high level make the epidemics trend prediction difficult. Since the traditional SEIR model does not evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies, a novel model in line with the current epidemics process and control measures was proposed, utilizing multisource datasets including cumulative number of reported, death, quarantined and suspected cases. Results show that the trend of the epidemics mainly depends on quarantined and suspected cases. The predicted cumulative numbers of quarantined and suspected cases nearly reached static states and their inflection points have already been achieved, with the epidemics peak coming soon. The estimated effective reproduction numbers using model-free and model-based methods are decreasing, as well as new infections, while new reported cases are increasing. Most infected cases have been quarantined or put in suspected class, which has been ignored in existing models. The uncertainty analyses reveal that the epidemics is still uncertain and it is important to continue enhancing the quarantine and isolation strategy and improving the detection rate in mainland China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a novel Holling-Tanner model with impulsive control and then provide a detailed qualitative analysis by using theories of impulsive dynamical systems. The Poincaré map is first constructed based on the phase portraits of the model. Then the main properties of the Poincaré map are investigated in detail which play important roles in the proofs of the existence of limit cycles, and it is concluded that the definition domain of the Poincaré map has a complicated shape with discontinuity points under certain conditions. Subsequently, the existence of the boundary order-1 limit cycle is discussed and it is shown that this limit cycle is unstable. Furthermore, the conditions for the existence and stability of an order-1 limit cycle are provided, and the existence of order-k(k≥2) limit cycle is also studied. Moreover, numerical simulations are carried out to substantiate our results. Finally, biological implications related to the mathematical results which are beneficial for successful pest control are addressed in the Conclusions section. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tumor heterogeneity is a large obstacle for cancer study and treatment. Different cancer patients may involve different combinations of gene mutations or the distinct regulatory pathways for inducing the progression of tumor. Investigating the pathways of gene mutations which can cause the formation of tumor can provide a basis for the personalized treatment of cancer. Studies suggested that KRAS, APC and TP53 are the most significant driver genes for colorectal cancer. However, it is still an open issue regarding the detailed mutation order of these genes in the development of colorectal cancer. For this purpose, we analyze the mathematical model considering all orders of mutations in oncogene, KRAS and tumor suppressor genes, APC and TP53, and fit it on data describing the incidence rates of colorectal cancer at different age from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results registry in the United States for the year 1973–2013. The specific orders that can induce the development of colorectal cancer are identified by the model fitting. The fitting results indicate that the mutation order with KRAS → APC → TP53, APC → TP53 → KRAS and APC → KRAS → TP53 explain the age–specific risk of colorectal cancer with very well. Furthermore, eleven pathways of gene mutations can be accepted for the mutation order of genes with KRAS → APC → TP53, APC → TP53 → KRAS and APC → KRAS → TP53, and the alternation of APC acts as the initiating or promoting event in the colorectal cancer. The estimated mutation rates of cells in the different pathways demonstrate that genetic instability must exist in colorectal cancer with alterations of genes, KRAS, APC and TP53. Author summary: Cumulative mutations in driver genes are the essential cause of cancer disease. For the colorectal cancer, KRAS, APC and TP53 are the common driver genes, and approximately 15% patients with colorectal cancer carry all mutations of the three genes. Exploring the pathway of mutations in these gene is extremely useful for the diagnosis and treatment of cancer. However, the mutation orders of these genes may vary in different patients due to the heterogeneity of tumor. Hence, we discuss all possible mutation orders in the genes, KRAS, APC and TP53 by using the model with five hits and find out the mutation pathways of genes that can effectively fit the incidence rate of colorectal cancer at different age in this article. In addition, we give the estimated values of mutation rates in each pathway that can explain the procession of colorectal cancer. The results obtained can offer guidelines to the treatment strategy of colorectal cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The continuous emergence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants with markedly increased transmissibility presents major challenges to the zero-COVID policy in China. It is critical to adjust aspects of the policy about non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) by searching for and implementing more effective ways. We use a mathematical model to mimic the epidemic pattern of the Omicron variant in Shanghai to quantitatively show the control challenges and investigate the feasibility of different control patterns in avoiding other epidemic waves. Methods: We initially construct a dynamic model with a core step-by-step release strategy to reveal its role in controlling the spread of COVID-19, including the city-based pattern and the district-based pattern. We used the least squares method and real reported case data to fit the model for Shanghai and its 16 districts, respectively. Optimal control theory was utilized to explore the quantitative and optimal solutions of the time-varying control strength (i.e., contact rate) to suppress the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants. Results: The necessary period for reaching the zero-COVID goal can be nearly 4 months, and the final epidemic size was 629,625 (95%CI: [608,049, 651,201]). By adopting the city-based pattern, 7 out of 16 strategies released the NPIs more or earlier than the baseline and ensured a zero-resurgence risk at the average cost of 10 to 129 more cases in June. By adopting the district-based pattern, a regional linked release can allow resumption of social activity to ~ 100% in the boundary-region group about 14 days earlier and allow people to flow between different districts without causing infection resurgence. Optimal solutions of the contact rate were obtained with various testing intensities, and higher diagnosis rate correlated with higher optimal contact rate while the number of daily reported cases remained almost unchanged. Conclusions: Shanghai could have been bolder and more flexible in unleashing social activity than they did. The boundary-region group should be relaxed earlier and more attention should be paid to the centre-region group. With a more intensive testing strategy, people could return to normal life as much as possible but still ensure the epidemic was maintained at a relatively low level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are many challenges to quantifying and evaluating the media impact on the control of emerging infectious diseases. We modeled such media impacts using a piecewise smooth function depending on both the case number and its rate of change. The proposed model was then converted into a switching system, with the switching surface determined by a functional relationship between susceptible populations and different subgroups of infectives. By parameterizing the proposed model with the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza outbreak data in the Shaanxi province of China, we observed that media impact switched off almost as the epidemic peaked. Our analysis implies that media coverage significantly delayed the epidemic's peak and decreased the severity of the outbreak. Moreover, media impacts are not always effective in lowering the disease transmission during the entire outbreak, but switch on and off in a highly nonlinear fashion with the greatest effect during the early stage of the outbreak. The finding draws the attention to the important role of informing the public about 'the rate of change of case numbers' rather than 'the absolute number of cases' to alter behavioral changes, through a self-adaptive media impact switching on and off, for better control of disease transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resource limitations and density dependent releasing of natural enemies during the pest control and integrated pest management will undoubtedly result in nonlinear impulsive control. In order to investigate the effects of those nonlinear control strategies on the successful pest control, we have proposed a pest-natural enemy system concerning integrated pest management with density dependent instant killing rate and releasing rate. In particular, the releasing rate depicts how the number of natural enemy populations released was guided by their current density at the fixed moment. The threshold condition which ensures the existence and global stability of pest-free periodic solution has been discussed first, and the effects of key parameters on the threshold condition reveal that reducing the pulse period does not always benefit pest control; that is, frequent releasing of natural enemies may not be beneficial to the eradication of pests when the density dependent releasing method has been implemented. Moreover, the forward and backward bifurcations could occur once the pest-free periodic solution becomes unstable, and the system could exist with very complex dynamics. All those results confirm that the control actions should be carefully designed once the nonlinear impulsive control measures have been taken for pest management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surgery is the traditional method for treating cancers, but it often fails to cure patients for complex reasons so new therapeutic approaches that include both surgery and immunotherapy have recently been proposed. These have been shown to be effective, clinically, in inhibiting cancer cells while allowing retention of immunologic memory. This comprehensive strategy is guided by whether a population of tumour cells has or has not exceeded a threshold density. Conditions for successful control of tumours in an immune tumour system were modeled and the related dynamics were addressed. A mathematical model with state-dependent impulsive interventions is formulated to describe combinations of surgery with immunotherapy. By analyzing the properties of the Poincaré map, we examine the global dynamics of the immune tumour system with state-dependent feedback control, including the existence and stability of the semi-trivial order-1 periodic solution and the positive order- periodic solution. The main results showed that surgery alone can only control the tumour size below a certain level while there is no immunologic memory. If comprehensive therapy involving combining surgery with immunotherapy is considered, then not only can the cancers be controlled below a certain level, but the immune system can also retain its activity. The existence of positive order- periodic solutions implies that periodical therapy is needed to control the cancers. However, choosing the treatment frequency and the strength of the therapy remains challenging, and hence a strategy of individual-based therapy is suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Having a thorough understanding of the infectivity of HIV, time of initiating treatment and emergence of drug resistant virus variants is crucial in mitigating HIV infection. There are many challenges to evaluating the long-term effect of the Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) on disease transmission at the population level. We proposed an individual based model by coupling within-host dynamics and between-host dynamics and conduct stochastic simulation in the group of men who have sex with men (MSM). The mean actual reproduction number is estimated to be 3.6320 (95% confidence interval: [3.46, 3.80]) for MSM group without treatment. Stochastic simulations show that given relatively high (low) level of drug efficacy after emergence of drug resistant variants, early initiation of treatment leads to a less (greater) actual reproduction number, lower (higher) prevalence and less (more) incidences, compared to late initiation of treatment. This implies early initiation of HAART may not always lower the actual reproduction number and prevalence of infection, depending on the level of treatment efficacy after emergence of drug resistant virus variants, frequency of high-risk behaviors and etc. This finding strongly suggests early initiation of HAART should be implemented with great care especially in the settings where the effective drugs are limited. Coupling within-host dynamics with between-host dynamics can provide critical information about impact of HAART on disease transmission and thus help to assist treatment strategy design and HIV/AIDS prevention and control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spiking neuron models which exhibit rich dynamics are usually defined by hybrid dynamical systems. It is revealed that mathematical analysis of these models has important significance. Therefore, in this work, we provide a comprehensively qualitative analysis for a quadratic integrate-and-fire model by using the theories of hybrid dynamical system. Firstly, the exact impulsive and phase sets are defined according to the phase portraits of the proposed model, and then the Poincaré map is constructed. Furthermore, the conditions for the existence and stability of an order 1 periodic solution are provided. Moreover, the existence and nonexistence of an order k  k≥2 periodic solution have been studied theoretically and numerically, and the results show that the system has periodic solutions with any period. Finally, some biological implications of the mathematical results are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The switched discrete host-parasitoid model concerning integrated pest management (IPM) has been proposed in the present work, and the economic threshold (ET) is chosen to guide the switches. That is, if the density of host (pest) population increases and exceeds the ET, then the biological and chemical tactics are applied together. Those multiple control measures are suspended once the density of host falls below the ET. Firstly, the existence and stability of several types of equilibria of switched system have been discussed briefly, and two- or three-parameter bifurcation diagrams reveal the regions of different types of equilibria including regular and virtual equilibria. Secondly, numerical bifurcation analyses show that the switched discrete system may have very complex dynamics including the co-existence of multiple attractors and switched-like behavior among attractors. Finally, we address how the key parameters and initial values of both host and parasitoid populations affect the host outbreaks, switching frequencies or mean switching frequency, and consequently the relative biological implications with respect to pest control are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A striking and defining feature of circadian clocks is the small variation in period over a physiological range of temperatures. This is referred to as temperature compensation, although recent work has suggested that the variation observed is a specific, adaptive control of period. Moreover, given that many biological rate constants have a Q10 of around 2, it is remarkable that such clocks remain rhythmic under significant temperature changes. We introduce a new mathematical model for the Neurospora crassa circadian network incorporating experimental work showing that temperature alters the balance of translation between a short and long form of the FREQUENCY (FRQ) protein. This is used to discuss period control and functionality for the Neurospora system. The model reproduces a broad range of key experimental data on temperature dependence and rhythmicity, both in wild-type and mutant strains.We present a simple mechanism utilising the presence of the FRQ isoforms (isoform switching) by which period control could have evolved, and argue that this regulatory structuremay also increase the temperature range where the clock is robustly rhythmic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Dose-response curves, which fit a multitude of experimental data derived from toxicology, are widely used in physics, chemistry, biology, and other fields. Although there are many dose-response models for fitting dose-response curves, the application of these models is limited by many restrictions and lacks universality, so there is a need for a novel, universal dynamical model that can improve fits to various types of dose-response curves. Methods: We expand the hormetic Ricker model, taking the delay inherent in the dose-response into account, and develop a novel and dynamic delayed Ricker difference model (DRDM) to fit various types of dose-response curves. Furthermore, we compare the DRDM with other dose-response models to confirm that it can mimic different types of dose-response curves. Data analysis: By fitting various types of dose-response data sets derived from drug applications, disease treatment, pest control, and plant management, and comparing the imitative effect of the DRDM with other models, we find that the DRDM fits monotonic dose-response data well and, in most circumstances, the DRDM has a better imitative effect to non-monotonic dose-response data with hormesis than other models do. Results: The MSE of fits of the DRDM to S-shaped dose-response data (DS2-G) is not lower than those for four other models, but the MSE of fits to U-shaped (DS7) and inverted U-shaped dose-response data (DS10) were lower than for two other models. This means that the imitative effect of the DRDM is comparable to other models of monotonic dose-response data, but is a significant improvement compared to traditional models of non-monotonic dose-response data with hormesis. Conclusion: We propose a novel dynamic model (DRDM) for fitting to various types of dose-response curves, which can reflect the dynamic trend of the population growth compared with traditional static dose-response models. By analyzing data, we have confirmed that the DRDM provides an ideal description of various dose-response observations and it can be used to fit a wide range of dose-response data sets, especially for hormetic data sets. Therefore, we conclude that the DRDM has a good universality for dose-response curve fitting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is complex and is developing in different ways according to the country involved.Methods: To identify the key parameters or processes that have the greatest effects on the pandemic and reveal the different progressions of epidemics in different countries, we quantified enhanced control measures and the dynamics of the production and provision of medical resources. We then nested these within a COVID-19 epidemic transmission model, which is parameterized by multi-source data. We obtained rate functions related to the intensity of mitigation measures, the effective reproduction numbers and the timings and durations of runs on medical resources, given differing control measures implemented in various countries.Results: Increased detection rates may induce runs on medical resources and prolong their durations, depending on resource availability. Nevertheless, improving the detection rate can effectively and rapidly reduce the mortality rate, even after runs on medical resources. Combinations of multiple prevention and control strategies and timely improvement of abilities to supplement medical resources are key to effective control of the COVID-19 epidemic. A 50% reduction in comprehensive control measures would have led to the cumulative numbers of confirmed cases and deaths exceeding 590,000 and 60,000, respectively, by 27 March 2020 in mainland China.Conclusions: Multiple data sources and cross validation of a COVID-19 epidemic model, coupled with a medical resource logistic model, revealed the key factors that affect epidemic progressions and their outbreak patterns in different countries. These key factors are the type of emergency medical response to avoid runs on medical resources, especially improved detection rates, the ability to promote public health measures, and the synergistic effects of combinations of multiple prevention and control strategies. The proposed model can assist health authorities to predict when they will be most in need of hospital beds and equipment such as ventilators, personal protection equipment, drugs, and staff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a two-patch model to address the spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB) within and between hospitals. Specifically, we consider patients being referred and transferred from a small community hospital with inappropriate antibiotic use to a large teaching hospital with good antibiotic treatment. Our analyses show that screening and decolonizing patients transferred between hospitals and avoiding misuse of antibiotics are both crucial factors to contain nosocomial infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]