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We examine deforestation processes in Apuí, a deforestation hotspot in Brazil's state of Amazonas and present processes of land-use change on this Amazonian development frontier. Settlement projects attract agents whose clearing reflects land accumulation and the economic importance of deforestation. We used a mixed-method approach in the Rio Juma Settlement to examine colonization and deforestation trajectories for 35 years at three scales of analysis: the entire landscape, cohorts of settlement lots divided by occupation periods, and lots grouped by landholding size per household. All sizes of landholdings are deforesting much more than before, and current political and economic forces favoring the agribusiness sector foreshadow increasing rates of forest clearing for pasture establishment in Apuí. The area cleared per year over the 2013–2018 period in Apuí grew by a percentage more than twice the corresponding percentage for the Brazilian Amazon as a whole. With the national congress and presidential administration signaling impunity for illegal deforestation, wealthy actors, and groups are investing resources in land grabbing and land accumulation, with land speculation being a crucial deforestation factor. This paper is unique in providing causal explanations at the decision-maker's level on how deforestation trajectories are linked to economic and political events (period effects) at the larger scales, adding to the literature by showing that such effects were more important than aging and cohort effects as explanations for deforestation trajectories. Additional research is needed to deepen our understanding of relations between land speculation, illegal possession of public lands, and the expansion of agricultural frontiers in Amazonia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil's Amazon deforestation is a major global and national environmental concern, and the ability to model and project both its course and the effect of different policy options depends on understanding how this process occurs at present and how it might change in the future. The present paper addresses one key factor in Amazon deforestation: land-tenure concentration in settlements. Brazil's policies for establishing and regulating settlement projects represent critical government decisions shaping the landscape in the 5 × 106 km2 Legal Amazonia region. We used remote-sensing data and information provided by the National Institute for Colonization and Agrarian Reform (INCRA) to evaluate the effect of land-tenure concentration in a settlement project (Projeto de Assentamento) located in a frontier area where cattle-ranching is expanding. We identified the actors and their deforestation patterns in the Matupi settlement in the southern part of Brazil's state of Amazonas. We spatially identified actors who concentrated "lots" (the parcels of land distributed to individual settlers) in 2011 and assessed whether the concentration was done by individual landholders or by "families" (where members merged their lots and the clearing was done together). Deforestation rates (1995–2011) were estimated for each type of actor and the trajectory of deforestation in the settlement (cumulative deforestation to 1994 and annual deforestation 1995–2016) was also analyzed. Concentrators occupied 28% (9653 ha) of the settlement and 29% of the lots (152 lots) analyzed; the numbers of lots concentrated ranged from two to ten. Concentrators of two lots and non-concentrators were the predominant actor types in the settlement. The mean annual clearing per landholding for concentrators of two lots (families: 4.1 ± 2.8 ha (mean ± SD); individuals: 5.1 ± 4.6 ha) was greater than for non-concentrators (1.7 ± 1.2 ha), despite their having similar patterns of small clearings. Concentrators of three or more lots had mean annual clearing per landholding between 6.2 ± 12.2 ha and 23.9 ± 38.7 ha and, the pattern of patches cleared per year >34 ha in area was predominant. The deforestation rate per lot was higher among concentrators as compared to non-concentrators, showing that lot concentration speeds deforestation. Analysis of deforestation patterns helps to better understand the process of lot concentration by spatially identifying the predominant patterns of each type of actor. The approach used in our study could assist authorities in identifying and monitoring land-tenure concentration in settlements. Agrarian-reform policymakers need to monitor this process, since it speeds deforestation in Amazonian settlement projects, as well as undermining the social objectives of the agrarian-reform program. • Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia is increased by land-tenure concentration. • Settlers receive 1 lot per family, but newcomers buy out the original settlers. • "Concentrators" in settlements establish ranches of 2–10 lots (56–600 ha). • In the Matupi settlement, 29% of the lots had been concentrated after 16 years. • Concentrators with ≥3 lots typically clear in patches >34 ha in area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate deforestation and the carbon stock in 2740 (82 %) of the 3325 settlements in Brazil's Legal Amazonia region. Estimates are made both using available satellite data and a carbon map for the 'pre-modern' period (prior to 1970). We used data from Brazil's Project for Monitoring Deforestation in Amazonia updated through 2013 and from the Brazilian Biomes Deforestation Monitoring Project (PMDBBS) updated through 2010. To obtain the pre-modern and recent carbon stocks we performed an intersection between a carbon map and a map derived from settlement boundaries and deforestation data. Although the settlements analyzed occupied only 8 % of Legal Amazonia, our results indicate that these settlements contributed 17 % (160,410 km) of total clearing (forest + non-forest) in Legal Amazonia (967,003 km). This represents a clear-cutting of 41 % of the original vegetation in the settlements. Out of this total, 72 % (115,634 km) was in the 'Federal Settlement Project' (PA) category. Deforestation in settlements represents 20 % (2.6 Pg C) of the total carbon loss in Legal Amazonia (13.1 Pg C). The carbon stock in remaining vegetation represents 3.8 Pg C, or 6 % of the total remaining carbon stock in Legal Amazonia (58.6 Pg C) in the periods analyzed. The carbon reductions in settlements are caused both by the settlers and by external actors. Our findings suggest that agrarian reform policies contributed directly to carbon loss. Thus, the implementation of new settlements should consider potential carbon stock losses, especially if settlements are created in areas with high carbon stocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]