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The water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) is a carrying capacity of natural resources. It affects the application and expansion of the carrying capacity of water resources. This subject involves various elements, such as water resources, the ecological environment system, humans and their economic and social systems, and a wider range of biological groups and their survival needs. Based on the objective recognition of the complex relationship between the water resource system, ecological environment system, and economic and social system, the support scale of water resources and the ecological environment for economic and social development is studied. Current research on the carrying capacity of water resources has mostly shifted from the previously limited support capacity of water resources to include factors such as the population, economy, and ecology, establishing the internal relationships between the economics, water resources, and ecological environment. This reflects the comprehensive carrying capacity of the entire region (or river basin) of water resources and the ecological environment system on an overall economic and social scale. Based on the conceptual connotation of the WRCC and the actual problems facing water resources in Henan Province, the paper uses a system dynamics method to develop information feedback between the four subsystems of Henan Province: economic, population, water resource, and water environment subsystems. The index system of the WRCC in Henan Province is also determined. The weight of each index is comprehensively determined by a combination weighting method of the analytic hierarchy process and an entropy weight method, and then a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the WRCC of Henan Province under four different development models. The validation period of the model is 2010–2020, and the forecast period is 2021–2030. The results indicate that during the period 2021–2030, the WRCC of Henan Province showed a slight upward trend overall under the four models, but the increase rates were different under the different models. Among the four models, the comprehensive model's benefit was the best, which not only maintained the healthy and stable development of the economy and society but also improved the pressure on the water resources and the quality of the water environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The combined weight method (CWM) for comprehensive water resources carrying capacity evaluation is proposed in this paper to evaluate the regional water resources carrying capacity. Firstly, the accelerating genetic algorithm based on analytic hierarchy process (AGA-AHP) method is improved to optimize the expert evaluation matrix and determine the subjective weight, in which entropy weight method is used to determine objective weight, and the combined weight formula is put forward to get the combined weight of evaluation index. Secondly, the certainty degree is calculated by using the multi-dimensional normal cloud model. The obstacle factors of evaluation index are diagnosed. Finally, taking Henan Province as an example, the regional water resources carrying capacity is evaluated by using CWM method. The comparison between single cloud model, AHP-TOPSIS and CWM is made. It is proved that CWM method takes the fuzziness and randomness into account in the evaluation process, and the efficient and intuitive results can be obtained through evaluation. The obstacle degree and the time changing pattern of the index can be clearly diagnosed, which can provide a new idea for the evaluation method of water resources carrying capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid development of global economy and society, water shortage has become a crucial limitation to the growth of many cities. The agricultural water resources carrying capacity (AWRCC) is a key indicator to judge the sustainable development of agriculture. It is necessary to quantificationally evaluate AWRCC to ensure safety of regional economic development and human being's living demand. To reasonably quantify AWRCC, this paper constructs an agricultural water resources evaluation system. CRITIC (CRiteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation) is introduced, and its combination with analytic hierarchy process (AHP) solves the subjectivity and randomness of weight determination. Based on the definition of AWRCC and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE), we construct support index (CCS), pressure index (CCP) and carrying capacity index (CCI) to describe the spatio-temporal variation of AWRCC in Henan Province. Applying sensitivity and correlation analyses into the AWRCC evaluation demonstrates practicality and rationality of results. It eventually provides corresponding suggestions to each city group with diverse carrying capacities. Main conclusions are as follow: (1) The per capita water consumption and agricultural water utilization rate in Henan trended to decrease yearly. The irrigation rate of cropland and the proportion of water-saving irrigation of cropland increased to a varying extent. Water resources utilization rate, cropland irrigation rate, proportion of water-saving irrigation in cropland, grain yield per unit cropland, and wetland proportion were relatively sensitive indicators and they were higher correlated with AWRCC. (2) During 2010–2020, although the agricultural water resources have been overloaded in Henan, AWRCC exhibited a slight enhancement on the temporal scale. On spatial scale, the central region had a stronger AWRCC than the surrounding cities, while the southwest region was relatively weaker, and the AWRCC of the eastern region continued to enhance. (3) According to the tertiary characteristics and spatio-temporal variation of AWRCC, cities of Henan can be roughly divided into four groups and some proposals were proposed individually to enhance the carrying capacity. The conclusion of this paper is helpful to understand the current situation of agricultural water resources in Henan and can provide a reference for the sustainable development of AWRCC. [Display omitted] • CRITIC combined with AHP solves the subjectivity of weight determination. • Spatio-temporal variation characteristics of AWRCC in Henan were analyzed. • Sensitivity and correlation analysis are used to detect AWRCC sensitive indicators. • Proposals were suggested respectively for cities with diverse AWRCC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]