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Constraints arise naturally in many scientific experiments/studies such as in, epidemiology, biology, toxicology, etc. and often researchers ignore such information when analyzing their data and use standard methods such as the analysis of variance (ANOVA). Such methods may not only result in a loss of power and efficiency in costs of experimentation but also may result poor interpretation of the data. In this paper we discuss constrained statistical inference in the context of linear mixed effects models that arise naturally in many applications, such as in repeated measurements designs, familial studies and others. We introduce a novel methodology that is broadly applicable for a variety of constraints on the parameters. Since in many applications sample sizes are small and/or the data are not necessarily normally distributed and furthermore error variances need not be homoscedastic (i.e. heterogeneity in the data) we use an empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) type residual based bootstrap methodology for deriving critical values of the proposed test. Our simulation studies suggest that the proposed procedure maintains the desired nominal Type I error while competing well with other tests in terms of power. We illustrate the proposed methodology by re-analyzing a clinical trial data on blood mercury level. The methodology introduced in this paper can be easily extended to other settings such as nonlinear and generalized regression models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In genetic association studies, tests for Hardy-Weinberg proportions are often employed as a quality control checking procedure. Missing genotypes are typically discarded prior to testing. In this paper we show that inference for Hardy-Weinberg proportions can be biased when missing values are discarded. We propose to use multiple imputation of missing values in order to improve inference for Hardy-Weinberg proportions. For imputation we employ a multinomial logit model that uses information from allele intensities and/or neighbouring markers. Analysis of an empirical data set of single nucleotide polymorphisms possibly related to colon cancer reveals that missing genotypes are not missing completely at random. Deviation from Hardy-Weinberg proportions is mostly due to a lack of heterozygotes. Inbreeding coefficients estimated by multiple imputation of the missings are typically lowered with respect to inbreeding coefficients estimated by discarding the missings. Accounting for missings by multiple imputation qualitatively changed the results of 10 to 17% of the statistical tests performed. Estimates of inbreeding coefficients obtained by multiple imputation showed high correlation with estimates obtained by single imputation using an external reference panel. Our conclusion is that imputation of missing data leads to improved statistical inference for Hardy-Weinberg proportions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Regression analysis with a bounded outcome is a common problem in applied statistics. Typical examples include regression models for percentage outcomes and the analysis of ratings that are measured on a bounded scale. In this paper, we consider beta regression, which is a generalization of logit models to situations where the response is continuous on the interval (0,1). Consequently, beta regression is a convenient tool for analyzing percentage responses. The classical approach to fit a beta regression model is to use maximum likelihood estimation with subsequent AIC-based variable selection. As an alternative to this established - yet unstable - approach, we propose a new estimation technique called boosted beta regression. With boosted beta regression estimation and variable selection can be carried out simultaneously in a highly efficient way. Additionally, both the mean and the variance of a percentage response can be modeled using flexible nonlinear covariate effects. As a consequence, the new method accounts for common problems such as overdispersion and non-binomial variance structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To facilitate analysis and understanding of biological systems, large-scale data are often integrated into models using a variety of mathematical and computational approaches. Such models describe the dynamics of the biological system and can be used to study the changes in the state of the system over time. For many model classes, such as discrete or continuous dynamical systems, there exist appropriate frameworks and tools for analyzing system dynamics. However, the heterogeneous information that encodes and bridges molecular and cellular dynamics, inherent to fine-grained molecular simulation models, presents significant challenges to the study of system dynamics. In this paper, we present an algorithmic information theory based approach for the analysis and interpretation of the dynamics of such executable models of biological systems. We apply a normalized compression distance (NCD) analysis to the state representations of a model that simulates the immune decision making and immune cell behavior. We show that this analysis successfully captures the essential information in the dynamics of the system, which results from a variety of events including proliferation, differentiation, or perturbations such as gene knock-outs. We demonstrate that this approach can be used for the analysis of executable models, regardless of the modeling framework, and for making experimentally quantifiable predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite a large amount of in vitro data, the dynamics of airway smooth muscle (ASM) mass increase in the airways of patients with asthma is not well understood. Here, we present a novel mathematical model that describes qualitatively the growth dynamics of ASM cells over short and long terms in the normal and inflammatory environments typically observed in asthma. The degree of ASM accumulation can be explained by an increase in the rate at which ASM cells switch between non-proliferative and proliferative states, driven by episodic inflammatory events. Our model explores the idea that remodelling due to ASM hyperplasia increases with the frequency and magnitude of these inflammatory events, relative to certain sensitivity thresholds. It highlights the importance of inflammation resolution speed by showing that when resolution is slow, even a series of small exacerbation events can result in significant remodelling, which persists after the inflammatory episodes. In addition, we demonstrate how the uncertainty in long-term outcome may be quantified and used to design an optimal low-risk individual anti-proliferative treatment strategy. The model shows that the rate of clearance of ASM proliferation and recruitment factors after an acute inflammatory event is a potentially important, and hitherto unrecognised, target for anti-remodelling therapy in asthma. It also suggests new ways of quantifying inflammation severity that could improve prediction of the extent of ASM accumulation. This ASM growth model should prove useful for designing new experiments or as a building block of more detailed multi-cellular tissue-level models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While some prediction models have been developed for diabetic populations, prediction rules for mortality in diabetic dialysis patients are still lacking. Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify predictors for 1-year mortality in diabetic dialysis patients and use these results to develop a prediction model. Methods: Data were used from the Netherlands Cooperative Study on the Adequacy of Dialysis (NECOSAD), a multicenter, prospective cohort study in which incident patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD) were monitored until transplantation or death. For the present analysis, patients with DM at baseline were included. A prediction algorithm for 1-year all-cause mortality was developed through multivariate logistic regression. Candidate predictors were selected based on literature and clinical expertise. The final model was constructed through backward selection. The model's predictive performance, measured by calibration and discrimination, was assessed and internally validated through bootstrapping. Results: A total of 394 patients were available for statistical analysis; 82 (21%) patients died within one year after baseline (3 months after starting dialysis therapy). The final prediction model contained seven predictors; age, smoking, history of macrovascular complications, duration of diabetes mellitus, Karnofsky scale, serum albumin and hemoglobin level. Predictive performance was good, as shown by the c-statistic of 0.810. Internal validation showed a slightly lower, but still adequate performance. Sensitivity analyses showed stability of results. Conclusions: A prediction model containing seven predictors has been identified in order to predict 1-year mortality for diabetic incident dialysis patients. Predictive performance of the model was good. Before implementing the model in clinical practice, for example for counseling patients regarding their prognosis, external validation is necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The variational Bayesian independent component analysis-mixture model (VIM), an unsupervised machine-learning classifier, was used to automatically separate Matrix Frequency Doubling Technology (FDT) perimetry data into clusters of healthy and glaucomatous eyes, and to identify axes representing statistically independent patterns of defect in the glaucoma clusters. Methods: FDT measurements were obtained from 1,190 eyes with normal FDT results and 786 eyes with abnormal FDT results from the UCSD-based Diagnostic Innovations in Glaucoma Study (DIGS) and African Descent and Glaucoma Evaluation Study (ADAGES). For all eyes, VIM input was 52 threshold test points from the 24-2 test pattern, plus age. Results: FDT mean deviation was −1.00 dB (S.D. = 2.80 dB) and −5.57 dB (S.D. = 5.09 dB) in FDT-normal eyes and FDT-abnormal eyes, respectively (p<0.001). VIM identified meaningful clusters of FDT data and positioned a set of statistically independent axes through the mean of each cluster. The optimal VIM model separated the FDT fields into 3 clusters. Cluster N contained primarily normal fields (1109/1190, specificity 93.1%) and clusters G1 and G2 combined, contained primarily abnormal fields (651/786, sensitivity 82.8%). For clusters G1 and G2 the optimal number of axes were 2 and 5, respectively. Patterns automatically generated along axes within the glaucoma clusters were similar to those known to be indicative of glaucoma. Fields located farther from the normal mean on each glaucoma axis showed increasing field defect severity. Conclusions: VIM successfully separated FDT fields from healthy and glaucoma eyes without a priori information about class membership, and identified familiar glaucomatous patterns of loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We developed linguistics-driven prediction models to estimate the risk of suicide. These models were generated from unstructured clinical notes taken from a national sample of U.S. Veterans Administration (VA) medical records. We created three matched cohorts: veterans who committed suicide, veterans who used mental health services and did not commit suicide, and veterans who did not use mental health services and did not commit suicide during the observation period (n = 70 in each group). From the clinical notes, we generated datasets of single keywords and multi-word phrases, and constructed prediction models using a machine-learning algorithm based on a genetic programming framework. The resulting inference accuracy was consistently 65% or more. Our data therefore suggests that computerized text analytics can be applied to unstructured medical records to estimate the risk of suicide. The resulting system could allow clinicians to potentially screen seemingly healthy patients at the primary care level, and to continuously evaluate the suicide risk among psychiatric patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A combination of clinical and routine laboratory data with biomarkers reflecting different pathophysiological pathways may help to refine risk stratification in heart failure (HF). A novel calculator (BCN Bio-HF calculator) incorporating N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP, a marker of myocardial stretch), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT, a marker of myocyte injury), and high-sensitivity soluble ST2 (ST2), (reflective of myocardial fibrosis and remodeling) was developed. Methods: Model performance was evaluated using discrimination, calibration, and reclassification tools for 1-, 2-, and 3-year mortality. Ten-fold cross-validation with 1000 bootstrapping was used. Results: The BCN Bio-HF calculator was derived from 864 consecutive outpatients (72% men) with mean age 68.2±12 years (73%/27% New York Heart Association (NYHA) class I-II/III-IV, LVEF 36%, ischemic etiology 52.2%) and followed for a median of 3.4 years (305 deaths). After an initial evaluation of 23 variables, eight independent models were developed. The variables included in these models were age, sex, NYHA functional class, left ventricular ejection fraction, serum sodium, estimated glomerular filtration rate, hemoglobin, loop diuretic dose, β-blocker, Angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor/Angiotensin-2 receptor blocker and statin treatments, and hs-cTnT, ST2, and NT-proBNP levels. The calculator may run with the availability of none, one, two, or the three biomarkers. The calculated risk of death was significantly changed by additive biomarker data. The average C-statistic in cross-validation analysis was 0.79. Conclusions: A new HF risk-calculator that incorporates available biomarkers reflecting different pathophysiological pathways better allowed individual prediction of death at 1, 2, and 3 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical integration of mathematical models of heart cell electrophysiology provides an important computational tool for studying cardiac arrhythmias, but the abundance of available models complicates selecting an appropriate model. We study the behavior of two recently published models of human ventricular action potentials, the Grandi-Pasqualini-Bers (GPB) and the O'Hara-Virág-Varró-Rudy (OVVR) models, and compare the results with four previously published models and with available experimental and clinical data. We find the shapes and durations of action potentials and calcium transients differ between the GPB and OVVR models, as do the magnitudes and rate-dependent properties of transmembrane currents and the calcium transient. Differences also occur in the steady-state and S1–S2 action potential duration and conduction velocity restitution curves, including a maximum conduction velocity for the OVVR model roughly half that of the GPB model and well below clinical values. Between single cells and tissue, both models exhibit differences in properties, including maximum upstroke velocity, action potential amplitude, and minimum diastolic interval. Compared to experimental data, action potential durations for the GPB and OVVR models agree fairly well (although OVVR epicardial action potentials are shorter), but maximum slopes of steady-state restitution curves are smaller. Although studies show alternans in normal hearts, it occurs only in the OVVR model, and only for a narrow range of cycle lengths. We find initiated spiral waves do not progress to sustained breakup for either model. The dominant spiral wave period of the GPB model falls within clinically relevant values for ventricular tachycardia (VT), but for the OVVR model, the dominant period is longer than periods associated with VT. Our results should facilitate choosing a model to match properties of interest in human cardiac tissue and to replicate arrhythmia behavior more closely. Furthermore, by indicating areas where existing models disagree, our findings suggest avenues for further experimental work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hierarchical organized tissue structures, with stem cell driven cell differentiation, are critical to the homeostatic maintenance of most tissues, and this underlying cellular architecture is potentially a critical player in the development of a many cancers. Here, we develop a mathematical model of mutation acquisition to investigate how deregulation of the mechanisms preserving stem cell homeostasis contributes to tumor initiation. A novel feature of the model is the inclusion of both extrinsic and intrinsic chemical signaling and interaction with the niche to control stem cell self-renewal. We use the model to simulate the effects of a variety of types and sequences of mutations and then compare and contrast all mutation pathways in order to determine which ones generate cancer cells fastest. The model predicts that the sequence in which mutations occur significantly affects the pace of tumorigenesis. In addition, tumor composition varies for different mutation pathways, so that some sequences generate tumors that are dominated by cancerous cells with all possible mutations, while others are primarily comprised of cells that more closely resemble normal cells with only one or two mutations. We are also able to show that, under certain circumstances, healthy stem cells diminish due to the displacement by mutated cells that have a competitive advantage in the niche. Finally, in the event that all homeostatic regulation is lost, exponential growth of the cancer population occurs in addition to the depletion of normal cells. This model helps to advance our understanding of how mutation acquisition affects mechanisms that influence cell-fate decisions and leads to the initiation of cancers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: New drugs and regimens with the potential to transform tuberculosis treatment are presently in early stage clinical trials. Objective: The goal of the present study was to infer the required duration of these treatments. Method: A meta-regression model was developed to predict relapse risk using treatment duration and month 2 sputum culture positive rate as predictors, based on published historical data from 24 studies describing 58 regimens in 7793 patients. Regimens in which rifampin was administered for the first 2 months but not subsequently were excluded. The model treated study as a random effect. Results: The model predicted that new regimens of 4 or 5 months duration with rates of culture positivity after 2 months of 1% or 3%, would yield relapse rates of 4.0% or 4.1%, respectively. In both cases, the upper limit of the 2-sided 80% prediction interval for relapse for a hypothetical trial with 680 subjects per arm was <10%. Analysis using this model of published month 2 data for moxifloxacin-containing regimens indicated they would result in relapse rates similar to standard therapy only if administered for ≥5 months. Conclusions: This model is proposed to inform the required duration of treatment of new TB regimens, potentially hastening their accelerated approval by several years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: We evaluated the validity of physician billing claims to identify deceased organ donors in large provincial healthcare databases. Methods: We conducted a population-based retrospective validation study of all deceased donors in Ontario, Canada from 2006 to 2011 (n = 988). We included all registered deaths during the same period (n = 458,074). Our main outcome measures included sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of various algorithms consisting of physician billing claims to identify deceased organ donors and organ-specific donors compared to a reference standard of medical chart abstraction. Results: The best performing algorithm consisted of any one of 10 different physician billing claims. This algorithm had a sensitivity of 75.4% (95% CI: 72.6% to 78.0%) and a positive predictive value of 77.4% (95% CI: 74.7% to 80.0%) for the identification of deceased organ donors. As expected, specificity and negative predictive value were near 100%. The number of organ donors identified by the algorithm each year was similar to the expected value, and this included the pre-validation period (1991 to 2005). Algorithms to identify organ–specific donors performed poorly (e.g. sensitivity ranged from 0% for small intestine to 67% for heart; positive predictive values ranged from 0% for small intestine to 37% for heart). Interpretation: Primary data abstraction to identify deceased organ donors should be used whenever possible, particularly for the detection of organ-specific donations. The limitations of physician billing claims should be considered whenever they are used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The field of medical systems biology aims to advance understanding of molecular mechanisms that drive disease progression and to translate this knowledge into therapies to effectively treat diseases. A challenging task is the investigation of long-term effects of a (pharmacological) treatment, to establish its applicability and to identify potential side effects. We present a new modeling approach, called Analysis of Dynamic Adaptations in Parameter Trajectories (ADAPT), to analyze the long-term effects of a pharmacological intervention. A concept of time-dependent evolution of model parameters is introduced to study the dynamics of molecular adaptations. The progression of these adaptations is predicted by identifying necessary dynamic changes in the model parameters to describe the transition between experimental data obtained during different stages of the treatment. The trajectories provide insight in the affected underlying biological systems and identify the molecular events that should be studied in more detail to unravel the mechanistic basis of treatment outcome. Modulating effects caused by interactions with the proteome and transcriptome levels, which are often less well understood, can be captured by the time-dependent descriptions of the parameters. ADAPT was employed to identify metabolic adaptations induced upon pharmacological activation of the liver X receptor (LXR), a potential drug target to treat or prevent atherosclerosis. The trajectories were investigated to study the cascade of adaptations. This provided a counter-intuitive insight concerning the function of scavenger receptor class B1 (SR-B1), a receptor that facilitates the hepatic uptake of cholesterol. Although activation of LXR promotes cholesterol efflux and -excretion, our computational analysis showed that the hepatic capacity to clear cholesterol was reduced upon prolonged treatment. This prediction was confirmed experimentally by immunoblotting measurements of SR-B1 in hepatic membranes. Next to the identification of potential unwanted side effects, we demonstrate how ADAPT can be used to design new target interventions to prevent these. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The objectives of this study were to evaluate the influence of iterative reconstruction (IR) on pulmonary nodule volumetry with chest computed tomography (CT). Methods: Twenty patients (12 women and 8 men, mean age 61.9, range 32–87) underwent evaluation of pulmonary nodules with a 64-slice CT-scanner. Data were reconstructed using filtered back projection (FBP) and IR (Philips Healthcare, iDose4-levels 2, 4 and 6) at similar radiation dose. Volumetric nodule measurements were performed with semi-automatic software on thin slice reconstructions. Only solid pulmonary nodules were measured, no additional selection criteria were used for the nature of nodules. For intra-observer and inter-observer variability, measurements were performed once by one observer and twice by another observer. Algorithms were compared using the concordance correlation-coefficient (pc) and Friedman-test, and post-hoc analysis with the Wilcoxon-signed ranks-test with Bonferroni-correction (significance-level p<0.017). Results: Seventy-eight nodules were present including 56 small nodules (volume<200 mm3, diameter<8 mm) and 22 large nodules (volume≥200 mm3, diameter≥8 mm). No significant differences in measured pulmonary nodule volumes between FBP, iDose4-levels 2, 4 and 6 were found in both small nodules and large nodules. FBP and iDose4-levels 2, 4 and 6 were correlated with pc-values of 0.98 or higher for both small and large nodules. Pc-values of intra-observer and inter-observer variability were 0.98 or higher. Conclusions: Measurements of solid pulmonary nodule volume measured with standard-FBP were comparable with IR, regardless of the IR-level and no significant differences between measured volumes of both small and large solid nodules were found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We recently showed that differential expression of extracellular matrix (ECM) genes delineates four subgroups of breast carcinomas (ECM1, -2, -3- and -4) with different clinical outcome. To further investigate the characteristics of ECM signature and its impact on tumor progression, we conducted unsupervised clustering analyses in 6 additional independent datasets of invasive breast tumors from different platforms for a total of 643 samples. Use of four different clustering algorithms identified ECM3 tumors as an independent group in all datasets tested. ECM3 showed a homogeneous gene pattern, consisting of 58 genes encoding 43 structural ECM proteins. From 26 to 41% of the cases were ECM3-enriched, and analysis of datasets relevant to gene expression in neoplastic or corresponding stromal cells showed that both stromal and breast carcinoma cells can coordinately express ECM3 genes. In in vitro experiments, β-estradiol induced ECM3 gene production in ER-positive breast carcinoma cell lines, whereas TGFβ induced upregulation of the genes leading to ECM3 gene classification, especially in ER-negative breast carcinoma cells and in fibroblasts. Multivariate analysis of distant metastasis-free survival in untreated breast tumor patients revealed a significant interaction between ECM3 and histological grade (p = 0.001). Cox models, estimated separately in grade I–II and grade III tumors, indicated a highly significant association between ECM3 and worse survival probability only in grade III tumors (HR = 3.0, 95% CI = 1.3–7.0, p = 0.0098). Gene Set Enrichment analysis of ECM3 compared to non-ECM3 tumors revealed significant enrichment of epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) genes in both grade I–II and grade III subsets of ECM3 tumors. Thus, ECM3 is a robust cluster that identifies breast carcinomas with EMT features but with accelerated metastatic potential only in the undifferentiated (grade III) phenotype. These findings support the key relevance of neoplastic and stroma interaction in breast cancer progression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is interest in expanding ART to prevent HIV transmission, but in the group with the highest levels of ART use, men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM), numbers of new infections diagnosed each year have not decreased as ARTcoverage has increased for reasons which remain unclear. Methods: We analysed data on the HIV-epidemic in MSM in the UK from a range of sources using an individual-based simulation model. Model runs using parameter sets found to result in good model fit were used to infer changes in HIV-incidence and risk behaviour. Results: HIV-incidence has increased (estimated mean incidence 0.30/100 person-years 1990–1997, 0.45/100 py 1998–2010), associated with a modest (26%) rise in condomless sex. We also explored counter-factual scenarios: had ART not been introduced, but the rise in condomless sex had still occurred, then incidence 2006–2010 was 68% higher; a policy of ART initiation in all diagnosed with HIV from 2001 resulted in 32% lower incidence; had levels of HIV testing been higher (68% tested/year instead of 25%) incidence was 25% lower; a combination of higher testing and ART at diagnosis resulted in 62% lower incidence; cessation of all condom use in 2000 resulted in a 424% increase in incidence. In 2010, we estimate that undiagnosed men, the majority in primary infection, accounted for 82% of new infections. Conclusion: A rise in HIV-incidence has occurred in MSM in the UK despite an only modest increase in levels of condomless sex and high coverage of ART. ART has almost certainly exerted a limiting effect on incidence. Much higher rates of HIV testing combined with initiation of ART at diagnosis would be likely to lead to substantial reductions in HIV incidence. Increased condom use should be promoted to avoid the erosion of the benefits of ART and to prevent other serious sexually transmitted infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Classification studies are widely applied, e.g. in biomedical research to classify objects/patients into predefined groups. The goal is to find a classification function/rule which assigns each object/patient to a unique group with the greatest possible accuracy (classification error). Especially in gene expression experiments often a lot of variables (genes) are measured for only few objects/patients. A suitable approach is the well-known method PLS-DA, which searches for a transformation to a lower dimensional space. Resulting new components are linear combinations of the original variables. An advancement of PLS-DA leads to PPLS-DA, introducing a so called ‘power parameter’, which is maximized towards the correlation between the components and the group-membership. We introduce an extension of PPLS-DA for optimizing this power parameter towards the final aim, namely towards a minimal classification error. We compare this new extension with the original PPLS-DA and also with the ordinary PLS-DA using simulated and experimental datasets. For the investigated data sets with weak linear dependency between features/variables, no improvement is shown for PPLS-DA and for the extensions compared to PLS-DA. A very weak linear dependency, a low proportion of differentially expressed genes for simulated data, does not lead to an improvement of PPLS-DA over PLS-DA, but our extension shows a lower prediction error. On the contrary, for the data set with strong between-feature collinearity and a low proportion of differentially expressed genes and a large total number of genes, the prediction error of PPLS-DA and the extensions is clearly lower than for PLS-DA. Moreover we compare these prediction results with results of support vector machines with linear kernel and linear discriminant analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]