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The relationship between initial Homo sapiens dispersal from Africa to East Asia and the orbitally paced evolution of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM)--currently the largest monsoon system--remains underexplored due to lack of coordinated synthesis of both Asian paleoanthropological and paleoclimatic data. Here, we investigate orbital-scale ASM dynamics during the last 280 thousand years (kyr) and their likely influences on early H. sapiens dispersal to East Asia, through a unique integration of i) new centennial-resolution ASM records from the Chinese Loess Plateau, ii) model-based East Asian hydroclimatic reconstructions, iii) paleoanthropological data compilations, and iv) global H. sapiens habitat suitability simulations. Our combined proxy-and model-based reconstructions suggest that ASM precipitation responded to a combination of Northern Hemisphere ice volume, greenhouse gas, and regional summer insolation forcing, with cooccurring primary orbital cycles of ~100-kyr, 41-kyr, and ~20-kyr. Between ~125 and 70 kyr ago, summer monsoon rains and temperatures increased in vast areas across Asia. This episode coincides with the earliest H. sapiens fossil occurrence at multiple localities in East Asia. Following the transcontinental increase in simulated habitat suitability, we suggest that ASM strengthening together with Southeast African climate deterioration may have promoted the initial H. sapiens dispersal from their African homeland to remote East Asia during the last interglacial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The past Asian precipitation δ18O (δ18Op) records from stalagmites and other deposits have shown significant orbital-scale variations, but their climatic implications and regional differences are still not fully understood. This study, as the first attempt of a 300-kyr transient stable isotope-enabled simulation, investigated the characteristics and mechanisms of the orbital-scale δ18Op variations in three representative regions of Asia: arid Central Asia (CA), monsoonal South Asia (SA) and monsoonal East Asia (EA). The modelling results showed that the variations in the CA, SA and EA annual δ18Op exhibited significant but asynchronous 23-kyr precession cycles. Further analyses revealed that although the precession-induced insolation variation was the ultimate cause of the δ18Op variation in all three regions, the dominant mechanisms and the involved physical processes were distinct among them. For the CA region, the rainy-season (November–March) temperature effect and water vapour transport by the westerly circulation were identified as the key precession-scale processes linking the October–February boreal mid-latitude insolation to the rainy-season or annual δ18Op. In the SA region, the rainy-season (June–September) precipitation amount effect and upstream depletion of the monsoonal water vapour δ18O served as the main mechanisms linking the rainy-season or annual δ18Op to the April–July insolation variation at the precession scale. For the EA region, however, the precession-scale annual δ18Op was mainly controlled by the late-monsoon (August–September) and pre-monsoon (April–May) water vapour transport patterns, which were driven by the July–August insolation and the global ice volume, respectively. These results suggest that the climatic implications of the orbital-scale Asia δ18Op variations are sensitive to their geographic locations as determined by the combined effects of insolation and regional circulation patterns associated with the respective rainy seasons. This study provides new insights into understanding the regional differences and formation mechanisms of the Asian orbital-scale δ18Op variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Robust and uncertain sea-level pressure patterns over summertime East Asia in the future global warming projections and their causes are studied by applying the inter-model empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to the multi-model experiments in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and focusing on common features with the previous CMIP5 analysis. The ensemble average and the first to third EOF modes associated with future pressure changes are similar to the corresponding modes from CMIP5. The first and second modes represent strengthened and weakened high-pressure systems in subtropical and northern East Asia, respectively. The third mode is the reverse anomaly of the climatological pressure pattern over summertime East Asia, which indicates weakened southerly monsoon winds. The second mode pattern makes positive contributions to almost all the CMIP6 future pressure changes, representing a robust future projection pattern. The robust mode is the result of surface warming over the northern continents and neighboring seas that is stronger than the global average. The first and third modes are considered to be uncertain (but major) patterns in the ensemble projections as the signs of their contributions to the future changes are dependent on the model used. Suppressed vertical motion over the equatorial (northern) Indian Ocean caused by the vertically stabilized atmosphere under the global warming scenario is the source of the first (third) mode, together with the counter vertical motion anomaly over the equatorial (northern) Pacific. The aforementioned characteristics of the modes are essentially similar to those identified in the CMIP5 analysis, whereas the different sea surface temperature anomalies are related to the secondary structures of the modes. Some uncertainties in the future projections can be attributed to the systematic differences in the model climatology of the present-day precipitation, which determines the distribution of the suppressed vertical motion under the future warmer climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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