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The freshwater discharge from melting ice sheets in the deglaciation or glaciation is prone to anomalies in ocean-atmosphere transport between different latitudes, which can lead to a series of abrupt millennial-scale climate events, either obvious or not, such as the Younger Dryas (YD) events and YD-like events. Marine Isotope Stage 11c (MIS 11c) serves as one of the best references for the current Holocene, and the studies of possible YD-like events and their triggering mechanisms during Holocene are conducive to the understanding of the occurrence pattern of extreme climate events. In this paper, the results of the study on the J33 δ18O sequence records of stalagmites in Jinfo Cave, Chongqing, are shown: (1) Stalagmites in the Asian monsoon climate zone reveal a millennial-scale weak monsoon event that occurred around 410 ka BP prior to the Glacial Maximum of MIS 11 interglacial period. (2) Both the 410 ka weak monsoon event and the YD event occurred during the gradual strengthening of the monsoon and ascending branch of summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere prior to the Glacial Maximum of interglacial period. This was also a time when Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) disturbance occurred. The duration, internal structure, and pattern of the events were similar, with differences in the change magnitude and ice volume conditions. (3) The weak monsoon event that occurred in 410 ka BP was primarily influenced by the combined effects of insolation and AMOC. This event was characterized by a sustained warming process that accelerated the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, leading to the destabilization of this ice sheet. The continuous flowing of freshwater into the North Atlantic resulted in a short-lived AMOC oscillation. The weakening of the AMOC resulted in a cold anomaly over the North Atlantic. As a result of atmospheric telecorrelation, the weaker AMOC led to a weaker Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews recent advances regarding land–atmosphere–ocean coupling associated with the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its climatic impacts. Thermal forcing over the TP interacts strongly with that over the Iranian Plateau, forming a coupled heating system that elevates the tropopause, generates a monsoonal meridional circulation over South Asia and creates conditions of large-scale ascent favorable for Asian summer monsoon development. TP heating leads to intensification and westward extension (northward movement) of the South Asian High (Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone), and exerts strong impacts on upstream climate variations from North Atlantic to West Asia. It also affects oceanic circulation and buoyancy fields via atmospheric stationary wave trains and air–sea interaction processes, contributing to formation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The TP thermal state and atmospheric–oceanic conditions are highly interactive and Asian summer monsoon variability is controlled synergistically by internal TP variability and external forcing factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asian monsoon (AM) has direct and profound effects on the livelihoods of residents in South Asia and East Asia. Modern observations have shown multi-decadal alternations of flood and drought periods in these regions, likely influenced by climatic processes such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, our understanding of the multi-decadal variability of the AM under different climatic conditions remains uncertain. In this study, we collected an annually laminated and 780-mm stalagmite (sample number: BJ7) from Binjia (BJ) Cave in southwestern China, which is deeply influenced by the Asian monsoon system. Based on this sample, we established 6-year resolution and multi-proxy records for the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variabilities during the early last termination, spanning from 18.2 to 16.1 ka BP. Measurements of five pairs of uranium and thorium solutions for 230Th dating were conducted using a multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (MC-ICP- MS), and 374 pairs of stable isotope (δ18O and δ13C) analyses were run on a Kiel Carbonate Device connected with Finnigan MAT-253 at Nanjing Normal University. The chronology for this sample was established by annual layer counting anchored with 230Th dating results. Our BJ7 δ18O record replicates well with other Chinese δ18O records on the general trend, all of which are superimposed by frequent multidecadal-scale fluctuations at approximately 60 years periodicity. Inspection of the 60-year band in BJ7 δ18O and δ13C records and results of the cross-wavelet analysis indicate coherent changes in the ASM and biomass production/karst processes during most of the studied period. In addition, the 60-year band of BJ7 and NGRIP δ18O records are consistent, implying the impacts of the high-latitude North Atlantic or Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the ASM. Our study suggests that the 60-year variability should be an intrinsic feature of the climate system regardless of glacial or interglacial backgrounds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The westerly circulation and the monsoon circulation are the two major atmospheric circulation systems affecting the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH), which have significant impacts on climate and environmental changes in the middle latitudes. However, until now, people's understanding of the long-term paleoenvironmental changes in the westerly- and monsoon-controlled areas in China's middle latitudes is not uniform, and the phase relationship between the two at different time scales is also controversial, especially the exception to the "dry gets drier, wet gets wetter" paradigm in global warming between the two. Based on the existing literature data published, integrated paleoenvironmental records, and comprehensive simulation results in recent years, this study systematically reviews the climate and environmental changes in the two major circulation regions in the mid-latitudes of China since the Middle Pleistocene, with a focus on exploring the phase relationship between the two systems at different time scales and its influencing mechanism. Through the reanalysis and comparative analysis of the existing data, we conclude that the interaction and relationship between the two circulation systems are relatively strong and close during the warm periods, but relatively weak during the cold periods. From the perspective of orbital, suborbital, and millennium time scales, the phase relationship between the westerly and Asian summer monsoon (ASM) circulations shows roughly in-phase, out-of-phase, and anti-phase transitions, respectively. There are significant differences between the impacts of the westerly and ASM circulations on the middle-latitude regions of northwest China, the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, and eastern China. However, under the combined influence of varied environmental factors such as BHLSR (boreal high-latitude solar radiation), SST (sea surface temperature), AMOC (north Atlantic meridional overturning circulation), NHI (Northern Hemisphere ice volume), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), ITCZ (intertropical convergence zone), WPSH (western Pacific subtropical high), TIOA (tropical Indian Ocean anomaly), ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation), CGT/SRP (global teleconnection/Silk Road pattern), etc., there is a complex and close coupling relationship between the two, and it is necessary to comprehensively consider their "multi-factor's joint-action" mechanism and impact, while, in general, the dynamic mechanisms driving the changes of the westerly and ASM circulations are not the same at different time scales, such as orbital, suborbital, centennial to millennium, and decadal to interannual, which also leads to the formation of different types of phase relationships between the two at different time scales. Future studies need to focus on the impact of this "multi-factor linkage mechanism" and "multi-phase relationship" in distinguishing the interaction between the westerly and ASM circulation systems in terms of orbital, suborbital, millennium, and sub-millennium time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of Asian summer monsoon prediction skill as a function of lead time and its relationship to sea surface temperature prediction using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, BCC CSM1.1(m). For the South and Southeast Asian summer monsoon, reasonable skill is found in the model's forecasting of certain aspects of monsoon climatology and spatiotemporal variability. Nevertheless, deficiencies such as significant forecast errors over the tropical western North Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean are also found. In particular, overestimation of the connections of some dynamical monsoon indices with large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns exists in most ensemble mean forecasts, even for short lead-time forecasts. Variations of SST, measured by the first mode over the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as the spatiotemporal features over the Ni˜no3.4 region, are overall well predicted. However, this does not necessarily translate into successful forecasts of the Asian summer monsoon by the model. Diagnostics of the relationships between monsoon and SST show that difficulties in predicting the South Asian monsoon can be mainly attributed to the limited regional response of monsoon in observations but the extensive and exaggerated response in predictions due partially to the application of ensemble average forecasting methods. In contrast, in spite of a similar deficiency, the Southeast Asian monsoon can still be forecasted reasonably, probably because of its closer relationship with large-scale circulation patterns and El Ni˜no-Southern Oscillation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, more and more record-breaking extreme weather/climate events have been reported from the Asian monsoon region, which have caused tremendous loss of property and lives. In this paper, we analyzed the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability during the Holocene and evaluated future climate extremes in monsoonal China from a paleoclimatic view. We found a significant regime transition to more chaotic fluctuations, with enhanced decadal variability of the ASM since 6.6 ka BP. We suggested the gradual intensification of ENSO was responsible for enhancing the ASM variability since the late mid-Holocene. If the observed relationship of monsoon mean intensity, ENSO and decadal variability of the ASM in the past 11.2 ka continue to exist, enhanced decadal variability of ASM in the future warming world will be expected. As a result, the intensification of daily precipitation extremes, superimposed on enhanced decadal variability of ASM, might make the record-breaking extremes more frequent in the future, increasing the risk of climate-related disasters in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using monthly mean National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data for the period 1958–1996, based on a new circulation index in the tropical western Pacific region, this paper investigates extreme winter circulation conditions in the northwestern Pacific and their evolution. The results show that the extreme winter circulation anomaly in the northwestern Pacific exhibits a strong association with those appearing in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere including the northern Asian continent, part of the Barents Sea, and the northeastern Pacific. As the season progresses, an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation anomaly appearing in the north-western Pacific gradually moves northeastwards and extends westwards. Its axis in the west-east direction is also stretched. Therefore, easterly (westerly) anomalies in the southern part of the anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation anomaly continuously expand westwards to the peninsula of India. Therefore, the South Asian summer monsoon would be weaker (stronger). Simultaneously, another interesting phenomenon is the evolution of SLP anomalies. As the season progresses (from winter to the following summer), SLP anomalies originating from the tropical western Pacific gradually move towards, and finally occupy the Asian continent, and further influence the thermal depression over the Asian continent in the following summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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In this paper, multiple sets of reanalysis datasets are used to analyze the intensity of the Asian summer monsoon from 1979 to 2021. Typhoon Soudelor (No. 1513) and Typhoon Maria (No. 1808) were selected from the weak monsoon year 2015 and the strong monsoon year 2018, both of which were generated in the Northwest Pacific in July and made landfall in South China. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) was used to simulate the two typhoons, starting 48 h prior to their landfall. The reasons for the differences in precipitation and how the monsoon affects typhoon precipitation in this process are analyzed from the aspects of monsoon background, ambient weather systems, typhoon thermodynamic structure, and water vapor conditions. The analysis shows that the circulation of Soudelor was stable and maintained for a long time. Despite existing in the background of a weak monsoon, the monsoon flow was able to reach the key area affecting typhoons and inject enough warm and moist flow to affect Soudelor. Combined with the analysis of typhoon structure, the strong water vapor transport of Soudelor and increased low-level convergence were conducive to the formation of typhoon-related rainstorms. The monsoon appeared to provide environmental conditions favorable for typhoon precipitation, resulting in a wide range of precipitation and heavy precipitation. Typhoon Maria developed and changed rapidly, moved rapidly, and the precipitation maintained itself for a relatively short time. The monsoon flow was not transported into Maria, resulting in insufficient water vapor inside Maria, which prevented the strengthening of typhoon precipitation. The precipitation of Maria mainly came from the dynamics of the typhoon itself and was not affected by the monsoon. In addition, this study defines an area on the southwest side of the typhoon moving with the center of the typhoon as the key area affecting typhoons. The characteristics of this area can be simply linked to typhoon precipitation, which can be considered an important research area for future analysis and prediction of typhoon precipitation.

In this study, CO is used as a tracer to evaluate the chemical field related to the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models from a multi-spatiotemporal perspective. The results show that the simulations of the six selected CMIP6 global climate models are well correlated with the MLS observations, while each model has its own advantages and disadvantages in the simulation of the ASMA and related chemical and geopotential height fields. Compared with MLS data, all six CMIP6 models can reasonably simulate the high CO values and the corresponding anticyclone, although certain biases exist in the simulations. Each model output has certain degrees of deviation in the simulation of the ASMA center position. In terms of time series, the six CMIP6 global models all exhibit an interannual variation CO mixing ratio over the ASM region while the interannual variation features are different from that in MLS. In general, it is impossible to identify a single determined model that can well reproduce the observations. In future work to assess the development trend and location of the ASMA, simulations of CESM2-WACCM and GFDL-ESM4 might be used due to their better performance than other models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of hydroclimate in East Asia during the Pliocene—a potential analog of the future greenhouse climate—remains highly uncertain. Here we reconstruct changes in the hydroclimate of Northern China during this epoch. Our results reveal previously undocumented severe drought conditions that persisted through the early Pliocene with a significantly greater magnitude than suggested by other records. Using a broad hierarchy of climate simulations, we find that reduction in the Pacific meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient has particularly strong impacts on precipitation over Northern China, which suggests its key role in maintaining drought conditions during the early Pliocene. The weaker Pacific meridional SST gradient causes the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation over this region via a reduction of atmospheric northward moisture transport from the ocean, which enhances aridity inland. Our results highlight the fundamental control of the tropical ocean on the extra‐tropical hydrological cycle. Plain Language Summary: Understanding East Asian rainfall changes with global warming is an important issue of climate sciences. The Pliocene epoch provides a potential analog to the future greenhouse climate. Here, for the first time we reconstruct high‐resolution aridity changes over the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) in northern East Asia during the Pliocene. Our results indicate persistent drought conditions over CLP during the early Pliocene. Analyzing a broad range of climate model simulations, we find that the reduced meridional sea surface temperature gradient is a critical factor in the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon over Northern China and in maintaining drought conditions during the early Pliocene relative to the late Pliocene. Our results expand the Asian inland paleoclimate records during the Pliocene, providing new information on past Asian monsoon precipitation variations during the warm Pliocene with potential implications for future hydroclimate changes under greenhouse warming in East Asia. Key Points: Severe drought conditions persisted throughout the early Pliocene epoch over Northern ChinaWe link these conditions to the reduced meridional temperature gradient in the Pacific OceanThe reduced Pacific meridional temperature gradient acts to weaken the summer East Asian monsoon precipitation over Northern China [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insolation changes play an important role in driving monsoon changes at orbital time scales. One key issue that has remained outstanding is whether the Asian monsoon is driven by local insolation from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) or remote insolation from the Southern Hemisphere (SH) at orbital band. Here, we perform a set of sensitivity experiments to quantify the impacts of local and remote insolation changes on the Afro‐Asian summer monsoon at 11 ka BP relative to the present. We show that the Afro‐Asian summer monsoon is overwhelmingly driven by the precession induced local insolation change in the tropical‐subtropical NH. The insolation from NH high latitudes also affects the Afro‐Asian summer monsoon. In contrast, the insolation from SH plays a negligible role. Our model experiments support the idea that the Afro‐Asian summer monsoon are driven predominantly by the direct forcing of NH low latitudes summer insolation for the Holocene. Plain Language Summary: The Afro‐Asian summer monsoon response to solar insolation has been studied extensively both in observation evidences and model simulations. However, whether the Afro‐Asian summer monsoon is driven by local insolation from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and remote insolation from the Southern Hemisphere (SH) still remains an open question. This work, for the first time, systematically isolates local and remote insolation impacts on Afro‐Asian summer monsoon using insolation from 11 ka BP. Our study suggests that the Afro‐Asian summer monsoon is driven by local precession insolation change. The increased local summer insolation at 11 ka increases the land‐sea thermal contrast, migrating the subcloud moist static energy maximum and westerly jet northward. These processes lead to a belt of increased monsoon precipitation stretching from North Africa eastward into South and East Asia, resulting in enhanced monsoon circulation and precipitation. The remote insolation from NH high latitude can also drives the incremental Afro‐Asian summer monsoon precipitation but the magnitude is much smaller compared with local effect. The insolation from SH has negligible role. Our model experiments support the idea that NH summer monsoons are driven predominantly by the direct forcing of NH low latitudes summer insolation for the Holocene. Key Points: The first study to completely isolate the local and remote insolation effect on Afro‐Asian summer monsoon at geological timeThe Afro‐Asian summer monsoon during Holocene is driven by local precession forcing in the tropical‐subtropical Northern HemisphereThe "latent heat" hypothesis is not supported by this study [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a new index based on the potential vorticity (PV) framework is proposed for the quantification of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) surface thermodynamic and dynamic forcing. The results show that the derived TP surface PV (SPV) includes the topographical effect, near‐surface absolute vorticity, and land–air potential temperature differences. The climatological annual cycle of the SPV suggests that the TP transitions from a cooling to a heating source in April. The SPV reaches a maximum from June to August, which is consistent with the evolution of the Asian summer monsoon precipitation. Further analysis suggests that the intensified SPV in the boreal summer results in a low‐level cyclonic circulation anomaly associated with increased precipitation over the southeastern slope of the TP and South China and decreased precipitation over the Indian Ocean. In winter, the intensified SPV is associated with local cold air and divergence at the TP surface. Plain Language Summary: The thermal forcing of Tibetan Plateau (TP) has long thought to be important in regulating the Asian summer monsoon. However, the surface sensible heat flux cannot represent the total thermodynamic forcing of the TP because the SSHF decreases when the monsoon precipitation intensifies during the prevailing Asian summer monsoon season. In this study, we propose a new index based on the potential vorticity (PV) framework, which can be used to quantify seasonal and interannual variations in the TP's surface thermodynamic and dynamic forcing. The results show that the proposed index can represent the TP surface‐elevated heating effect during the boreal summer, which is consistent with those of numerical experiments performed in previous studies. The new index can be used as a metric for model evaluation and climate characterization in future studies to quantify the role of the TP in global climate change. Key Points: The Tibetan Plateau surface potential vorticity index (TP‐SPVI) includes the effects from orographic thermal and dynamical forcingThe seasonal variation in the proposed TP‐SPVI is consistent with the time evolution of the Asian summer monsoon precipitationThe surface PV can be used as a metric for the identification of the TP surface forcing in reanalysis data and for model evaluation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding climate and monsoonal dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau is crucial, as recent hydrological changes, evidenced by rising lake levels, will be accelerated by current global warming and may alter aquatic habitats and species inventories. This study combines chironomid assemblages with sedimentological, mineralogical and geochemical data of a short sediment core (37.5 cm) from the highaltitude (>4,733 m asl), saline (9 g L-1) and shallow (~5 m water depth) Shen Co, located in the southern part of the central Tibetan Plateau. The predominantly littoral, species-poor (10 chironomid morphotypes) chironomid assemblages are dominated by salt-tolerant taxa, that are highly sensitive to lake level fluctuations and macrophyte vegetation dynamics, making them ideally suited for tracking lake level changes over time. Results indicate a period (from ca. 1830 to 1921 CE) of drier conditions with low runoff and high evaporation rates in the Shen Co catchment, as indicated by a dominance of low-Mg calcite and dolomite and increased Ca/Fe and Sr/Rb ratios. This resulted in a decline in lake levels, an increase in salinity and the periodic occurrence of desiccation events at the sampling site. The first chironomid morphotype to appear after the dry period is Acricotopus indet. morphotype incurvatus, which indicate still low (<2 m) but rising lake levels after 1921 CE due to increasing runoff and a lower evaporation/precipitation ratio, as reflected by coarser grain size, higher quartz content and increased TN, TOC and Al/Si ratios. A replacement of A. indet. morphotype incurvatus by Procladius is observed as lake level rise continued after 1950 CE. The highest lake level is proposed for the period since 2006 CE. From 1955 to 1960 CE and from 2011 to 2018 CE, the presence of the phytophilic taxon Psectrocladius sordidellus-type supported abundant macrophyte growth. These changes are consistent with climate reconstructions from the northern and central Tibetan Plateau, indicating warmer and wetter climate conditions since the beginning of the 20th century, which have led to an increase in lake level in a number of Tibetan lakes. Our study specifically highlights 1920 and 1950 as years with enhanced precipitation. This can be attributed to strong overlapping multidecadal cycles of Westerlies and monsoon systems. This study demonstrates the significance of studying small, shallow lakes, as they frequently contain aquatic communities that respond more rapidly to the changes in the lake system. In addition, this study expands our understanding of the ecology of Tibetan chironomid morphotypes, highlighting this group's potential as paleolimnological proxies for investigating past environmental and climatic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability and its long-term ecological and societal impacts extending back to Neolithic times are poorly understood due to a lack of high-resolution climate proxy data. Here, we present a precisely dated and well-calibrated treering stable isotope chronology from the Tibetan Plateau with 1- to 5-y resolution that reflects high- to low-frequency ASM variability from 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a persistent drying trend since the mid-Holocene, a rapid decrease in moisture availability between ~2000 and ~1500 BCE caused a dry hydroclimatic regime from ~1675 to ~1185 BCE, with mean precipitation estimated at 42 ± 4% and 5 ± 2% lower than during themid-Holocene and the instrumental period, respectively. This second-millennium-BCE megadrought marks the mid-to late Holocene transition, during which regional forests declined and enhanced aeolian activity affected northern Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ~2000 BCE contributed to the shift of Neolithic cultures in northern China and likely triggered human migration and societal transformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we present, to date, the highest‐resolved (~5 years) and most precisely dated Holocene monsoon climate reconstruction for the western Chinese Loess Plateau based on five replicated stalagmite δ18O records from Wuya Cave, eastern Gansu, China. Our record suggests the wettest period occurred between 10,500 and 6,600 a BP in this region. After this period, the amplitude of Asian summer monsoon decadal‐scale variability progressively increased likely in response to increasing ENSO frequency since the middle Holocene. Our study reveals similar asymmetric centennial‐scale double‐plunging structures of the 8.2, 5.5, and 2.8 ka events in the western Chinese Loess Plateau, suggesting a possible role of solar activity whose impact was amplified around 8.2 ka BP by the meltwater flood. In contrast, the 4.2 ka event exhibit gradually declining monsoon rainfall with centennial‐ to decadal‐scale fluctuations. Key Points: A 5 year‐resolved Holocene Asian summer monsoon record was reconstructed for the western Loess Plateau based on speleothemsThe wettest period occurred between 10,500 and 6,600 a BP, after that, the amplitude of decadal‐scale monsoon variability increasedSimilar structures were observed during the 8.2, 5.5, and 2.8 ka weak monsoon events, which are different from the 4.2 ka event [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Basin‐integrated precipitation minus evaporation (P − E) in the Pacific is near neutral while the Atlantic shows net evaporation. We link this P − E asymmetry to atmospheric moisture fluxes across the boundaries of the ocean drainage basins. Adopting an objective approach based on a comparison between actual fluxes and a zonally averaged circulation, we show that the asymmetry is dominated by moisture fluxes associated with the monthly mean flow at low latitudes rather than by differences in moisture fluxes into the Southern Ocean and Arctic catchments. In boreal summer, the eastward moisture flux, due to the Asian Summer Monsoon flow, opposes the zonal mean westward flux in the Trade Winds and results in more positive P − E over the Pacific than both the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, even in the annual mean. Our analysis reveals that moisture flux across Southeast Asia, rather than across Central America, is the dominant factor in the P − E asymmetry. Key Points: Atlantic and Pacific P − E (precipitation minus evaporation) asymmetry is primarily due to atmospheric moisture transport and precipitationMoisture fluxes into the polar ocean basins do not contribute notably to P − E asymmetries between the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian basinsDeviations from zonal mean zonal moisture flux associated with the summer monsoon flow across Southeast Asia dominate the P − E asymmetry [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, more and more record-breaking extreme weather/climate events have been reported from the Asian monsoon region, which have caused tremendous loss of property and lives. In this paper, we analyzed the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability during the Holocene and evaluated future climate extremes in monsoonal China from a paleoclimatic view. We found a significant regime transition to more chaotic fluctuations, with enhanced decadal variability of the ASM since 6.6 ka BP. We suggested the gradual intensification of ENSO was responsible for enhancing the ASM variability since the late mid-Holocene. If the observed relationship of monsoon mean intensity, ENSO and decadal variability of the ASM in the past 11.2 ka continue to exist, enhanced decadal variability of ASM in the future warming world will be expected. As a result, the intensification of daily precipitation extremes, superimposed on enhanced decadal variability of ASM, might make the record-breaking extremes more frequent in the future, increasing the risk of climate-related disasters in China.

Increasing lines of evidence question the homogenous response of Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) precipitation patterns, requiring rethinking of the forcing mechanisms. Here we show a ~15,000‐year quantitative precipitation history based on well‐dated lake levels at Lake Chenghai, subtropical China. Lake levels and the inferred precipitation were high during the Bølling‐Allerød, early and late Holocene, but low during the middle Holocene. The orbital scale precipitation trend is out of phase with boreal summer insolation, the later has been widely suggested as the driver of ASM precipitation. Lake Chenghai long‐term lake levels are synchronous with trends in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, the related zonal sea surface temperature gradients, and interhemispheric temperature gradients. We propose that changes in either the interhemispheric or zonal Pacific temperature gradients modulate the intensity and location of the western Pacific subtropical high, which is juxtaposed on the ASM, leading to heterogeneous hydroclimatic conditions over subtropical East Asia. Plain Language Summary: We present a 15,000‐year record of southern China precipitation based on well‐dated (n=130 radiometric ages) lake level variations of a closed basin lake. The reconstructed long‐term southern China precipitation trend is out of phase with boreal summer insolation, which has been shown to drive ASM precipitation, but broadly follows trends in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the related zonal SST gradients, and interhemispheric temperature gradients. We propose that changes in either the interhemispheric or zonal Pacific temperature gradients modulate the intensity and location of the western Pacific subtropical high and are juxtaposed on the ASM, leading to heterogeneous hydroclimatic conditions over subtropical East Asia, including an unexpected southern China mid‐Holocene drought. The results of this study are unique in that (1) precipitation was robustly reconstructed from beach evidence, which is a first‐order measure of the balance between rainfall amount and evaporation. (2) A new mechanism driving long‐term precipitation changes over subtropical East Asia is proposed. Providing the mechanism stands, increasing SST gradients under the expected global warming scenario could enhance the role of western Pacific subtropical high and lead to less precipitation over subtropical East Asia. Key Points: A 15,000‐year precipitation history over subtropical China was reconstructed based on well‐dated (n=130 radiometric ages) lake levelsSubtropical China precipitation trend does not resemble Asian summer monsoon trend but is synchronized with trends in tropical Pacific SSTJuxtaposition of western Pacific subtropical high on Asian summer monsoon could have shaped the subtropical East Asian precipitation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon budgets in terrestrial ecosystems in China are strongly coupled with climate changes. Over the past decade, China has experienced dramatic climate changes characterized by enhanced summer monsoon and decelerated warming. However, the changes in the trends of terrestrial net ecosystem production (NEP) in China under climate changes are not well documented. Here, we used three ecosystem models to simulate the spatiotemporal variations in China's NEP during 1982–2010 and quantify the contribution of the strengthened summer monsoon and warming hiatus to the NEP variations in four distinct climatic regions of the country. Our results revealed a decadal-scale shift in NEP from a downtrend of –5.95 Tg C/yr2 (reduced sink) during 1982–2000 to an uptrend of 14.22 Tg C/yr2 (enhanced sink) during 2000–10. This shift was essentially induced by the strengthened summer monsoon, which stimulated carbon uptake, and the warming hiatus, which lessened the decrease in the NEP trend. Compared to the contribution of 56.3% by the climate effect, atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition had relatively small contributions (8.6 and 11.3%, respectively) to the shift. In conclusion, within the context of the global-warming hiatus, the strengthening of the summer monsoon is a critical climate factor that enhances carbon uptake in China due to the asymmetric response of photosynthesis and respiration. Our study not only revealed the shift in ecosystem carbon sequestration in China in recent decades, but also provides some insight for understanding ecosystem carbon dynamics in other monsoonal areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An enhanced aerosol layer near the tropopause over Asia during the June-September period of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) was recently identified using satellite observations. Its sources and climate impact are presently not well-characterized. To improve understanding of this phenomenon, we made in situ aerosol measurements during summer 2015 from Kunming, China, then followed with a modeling study to assess the global significance. The in situ measurements revealed a robust enhancement in aerosol concentration that extended up to 2 km above the tropopause. A climate model simulation demonstrates that the abundant anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions from Asia coupled with rapid vertical transport associated with monsoon convection leads to significant particle formation in the upper troposphere within the ASM anticyclone. These particles subsequently spread throughout the entire Northern Hemispheric (NH) lower stratosphere and contribute significantly (~ 15%) to the NH stratospheric column aerosol surface area on an annual basis. This contribution is comparable to that from the sum of small volcanic eruptions in the period between 2000 and 2015. Although the ASM contribution is smaller than that from tropical upwelling (∼35%), we find that this region is about three times as efficient per unit area and time in populating the NH stratosphere with aerosol. With a substantial amount of organic and sulfur emissions in Asia, the ASM anticyclone serves as an efficient smokestack venting aerosols to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. As economic growth continues in Asia, the relative importance of Asian emissions to stratospheric aerosol is likely to increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A profound consideration of stable oxygen isotope source water origins is a precondition for an unambiguous palaeoenvironmental interpretation of terrestrial δ O archives. To stress the influence of air mass origins on widely used δ O tree-ring chronologies, we conducted correlation analyses between six annually resolved δ O tree-ring cellulose ( $\delta ^{18}\textit {O}_{TC}$ ) chronologies and mean annual air package origins obtained from backward trajectory modeling. This novel approach has been tested for a transect at the southeastern Tibetan plateau (TP), where air masses with different isotopic composition overlap. Detailed examinations of daily precipitation amounts and monthly precipitation δ O values ( $\delta ^{18}\textit {O}_{P}$ ) were conducted with the ERA Interim and Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique General Circulation Model (LMDZiso) data, respectively. Particularly the southernmost study sites are influenced by a distinct amount effect. Here, air package origin $\delta ^{18}\textit {O}_{TC}$ relations are generally weaker in contrast to our northern located study sites. We found that tree-ring isotope signatures at dry sites with less rain days per year tend to be influenced stronger by air mass origin than tree-ring isotope values at semi-humid sites. That implies that the local hydroclimate history inferred from $\delta ^{18}\textit {O}_{TC}$ archives is better recorded at semi-humid sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stable isotopes in wood cellulose of tree rings provide a high-resolution record of environmental conditions, yet intra-annual analysis of carbon and oxygen isotopes and their associations with physiological responses to seasonal environmental changes are still lacking. We analyzed tree-ring stable carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotope variations in the earlywood (EW) and latewood (LW) of pines from a secondary forest (Pinus kesiya) and from a natural forest (Pinus armandii) in southwestern China. There was no significant difference between δ13CEW and δ13CLW in P. kesiya, while δ13CEW was significantly higher than δ13CLW in P. armandii. For both P. kesiya and P. armandii, δ13CEW was highly correlated with previous year's δ13CLW, indicating a strong carbon carry-over effect for both pines. The intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) in the earlywood of P. armandii was slightly higher than that of P. kesiya, and iWUE of both pine species showed an increasing trend, but at a considerably higher rate in P. kesiya. Respective δ13CEW and δ13CLW series were not correlated between the two pine species and could be influenced by local environmental factors. δ13CEW of P. kesiya was positively correlated with July to September monthly mean temperature (MMT), whereas δ13CEW of P. armandii was positively correlated with February to May MMT. Respective δ18OEW and δ18OLW in P. kesiya were positively correlated with those in P. armandii, indicating a strong common climatic forcing in δ18O for both pine species. δ18OEW of both pine species was negatively correlated with May relative humidity and δ18OEW in P. armandii was negatively correlated with May precipitation, whereas δ18OLW in both pine species was negatively correlated with precipitation during autumn months, showing a high potential for climate reconstruction. Our results reveal slightly higher iWUE in natural forest pine species than in secondary forest pine species, and separating earlywood and latewood of for δ18O analyses could provide seasonally distinct climate signals in southwestern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study uses an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), with a resolution of 60 km, to investigate the effect of high-horizontal-resolution SST data on simulations of elements of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), including the northwestern Pacific subtropical high (NWPSH) and tropical cyclone (TC) genesis. Plotting the result of the fine-resolution (60 km) minus coarse-resolution (300 km) SST AGCM runs shows a low-level anticyclonic anomaly (with suppressed convective activity) over the northwestern Pacific (NWP) following the onset of the NWP monsoon (July-September). In addition, TC frequency and mean TC intensity are controlled by the atmospheric circulation change that is related to the NWPSH. Changes in environmental parameters can partly explain these TC frequency and intensity changes. Based on the similarity between the realistic and idealized SST experiments, the cold SST anomaly around 10-15°N seems to play a key role in the low-level anticyclonic anomaly. Analysis of the ocean circulation and heat budget reveals that advection of cold water from the central Pacific by the westward-flowing North Equatorial Current (NEC) is important for the development of this cold SST anomaly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The time-mean and interannual variability of the interface between the Indian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon (IIE) was assessed using both Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and ECHAM5/MPI-OM and by calculating diagnostics and skill metrics around the IIE area. Progress has been made in modeling these aspects by moving from ECHAM5/MPI-OM to MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM is more skillful than ECHAM5/MPI-OM in modeling the time-mean state and the extreme condition of the IIE. Though simulation of the interannual variability significantly deviates to some extent in both MPI-ESM and ECHAM5/MPI-OM, MPI-ESM-LR shows better skill in reflecting the relationship among sea surface temperature anomalies over the Pacific, circulation anomalies over East Asia, and IIE variability. The temperature becomes warmer under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios in comparison with the historical experiments, but the position of the IIE and the key physical process in relation to the IIE variability almost remains the same, suggesting that the Indian summer monsoon tends to change in phase with the East Asian summer monsoon under each RCP scenario. The relatively realistic description of the physical processes modulated by terrain in MPI-ESM may be one of the most important reasons why MPI-ESM performs better in simulating the IIE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) anticyclone is a dominant feature of the circulation in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS) during boreal summer, which is found to have persistent maxima in carbon monoxide (CO). This enhancement is due to the upward transport of air with high CO from the planetary boundary layer (PBL), and confinement within the anticyclonic circulation. With rapid urbanization and industrialization, CO surface emissions are relatively high in the ASM region, especially in India and East China. To reveal the transport pathway of CO surface emissions over these two regions, and investigate the contribution of these to the CO distribution within the ASM anticyclone, a source sensitivity experiment was performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) with chemistry model (WRF-Chem). According to the experiment results, the CO within the ASM anticyclone mostly comes from India, while the contribution from East China is insignificant. The result ismainly caused by the different transportation mechanisms. In India, CO transportation is primarily affected by convection. The surface air with high CO over India is directly transported to the upper troposphere, and then confined within the ASM anticyclone, leading to a maximum value in the UTLS region. The CO transportation over East China is affected by deep convection and large-scale circulation, resulting mainly in transportation to Korea, Japan, and the North Pacific Ocean, with little upward transport to the anticyclone, leading to a high CO value at 215 hPa over these regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reproducibility and future changes of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon were analyzed based on the simulations and projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenario in which anthropogenic emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century (i.e. RCP8.5) by all realizations from four Chinese models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Delayed onset of the monsoon over the Arabian Sea was evident in all simulations for present-day climate, which was associated with a too weak simulation of the low-level Somali jet in May. A consistent advanced onset of the monsoon was found only over the Arabian Sea in the projections, where the advanced onset of the monsoon was accompanied by an increase of rainfall and an anomalous anticyclone over the northern Indian Ocean. In all the models except FGOALS-g2, the enhanced low-level Somali jet transported more water vapor to the Arabian Sea, whereas in FGOALS-g2 the enhanced rainfall was determined more by the increased wind convergence. Furthermore, and again in all models except FGOALS-g2, the equatorial SST warming, with maximum increase over the eastern Pacific, enhanced convection in the central West Pacific and reduced convection over the eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent region, which drove the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western Indian Ocean. In contrast, in FGOALS-g2, there was minimal (near-zero) warming of projected SST in the central equatorial Pacific, with decreased convection in the central West Pacific and enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent. The broader-scale differences among the models across the Pacific were related to both the differences in the projected SST pattern and in the present-day simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) begins firstly over the Indo-China Peninsula in early May and over the South China Sea (SCS) in mid-May. The different monsoon onset dates can exert distinct effects on the summer rainfall in Asia. Statistical results indicate that the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) in the boreal winter has a significant precursory influence on the ASM onset dates. In stronger AAO years, both the Mascarene high and the Australia high in March are stronger owing to the 'see-saw' structure of atmospheric circulation over the subtropics and higher latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, and the tropical intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is deeper. Thus, the pressure gradient between the subtropical and tropical regions increases in spring. As a result, the Somalia cross-equatorial flow (SCEF) occurs earlier, strengthens, and enhances the westerlies over the tropical Indian Ocean. The enhanced westerlies impel an eastward withdrawal of the western Pacific subtropical high and intensify the convergence and rising motion at the lower troposphere, accelerating the burst of ASM. Differently, weaker AAO weakens the pressure gradient between the tropical and subtropical regions and delays the establishment of SCEF, resulting in a delayed onset of ASM. This study extends the leading time of seasonal forecast of ASM onset from the previous spring to winter and provides useful information about precursory signals in climate prediction operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considering the different uplifting time of different subregions of the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau (TP), a series of numerical simulations have been conducted with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research to explore the effects of the phased tectonic uplift of the Himalaya-TP on the evolution of Asian summer monsoons. The results show that the uplifts of the Himalaya and northern TP significantly affect the evolutions of South Asian summer monsoon and northern East Asian summer monsoon respectively. That is, the tectonic uplift of the Himalaya intensifies the South Asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in South Asia, whereas the uplift of the northern TP intensifies the northern East Asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in northern East Asia. Compared with previous simulations, current comparative analyses of modeling results for different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-TP help deepen our understanding of the evolutionary history of Asian monsoons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seven different tree-ring parameters were obtained from Chinese pine ( Pinus tabulaeformis) in the Changling Mountains, China. The chronologies were analyzed individually and then compared with each other. The climate response analysis shows that total precipitation (September-July) is the main factor limiting the radial growth of Chinese pine in the Changling Mountains. Thus, the residual earlywood width chronology was used to estimate precipitation (September-July) for the period AD 1691-2006, and explained 46.9% of the precipitation variance. Drought events in our reconstruction are compared to historical archives for Gansu and north-central China. The results reveal the climatic extremes over much of Gansu. Some events have had profound impacts on the Gansu people over the past several centuries. Spatial analysis shows that the precipitation reconstruction has strong common signals for North-central China. The reconstructed series is correlated significantly with Helan Mountains Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), as well as with previous results from Jiuquan, Shandan, Huashan, Luya Mountains, and even the state of Mongolia. Our results suggest that some dry periods are coincident with solar minima over the past several hundred years. Multitaper spectral analysis reveals the existence of significant 24.4-year, 12.2-year, and 2.4- to 3.4-year periods of variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impacts of land models and initial land conditions (ICs) on the Asian summer monsoon, especially its onset, were investigated using the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS). Two land models, the Oregon State University (OSU) land model and the NCEP, OSU, Air Force, and Hydrologic Research Laboratory (Noah) land model, were used to get parallel experiments. The experiments also used land ICs from the NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) Global Reanalysis 2 (GR2) and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Previous studies have demonstrated that, a systematic weak bias appears in the modeled monsoon, and this bias may be related to a cold bias over the Asian land mass. Results of the current study show that replacement of the OSU land model by the Noah land model improved the model's cold bias and produced improved monsoon precipitation and circulation patterns. The CFS predicted monsoon with greater proficiency in El Niño years, compared to La Niña years, and the Noah model performed better than the OSU model in monsoon predictions for individual years. These improvements occurred not only in relation to monsoon onset in late spring but also to monsoon intensity in summer. Our analysis of the monsoon features over the India peninsula, the Indo-China peninsula, and the South Chinese Sea indicates different degrees of improvement. Furthermore, a change in the land models led to more remarkable improvement in monsoon prediction than did a change from the GR2 land ICs to the GLDAS land ICs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The summertime ozone valley over the Tibetan Plateau is formed by two influences, the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and air column variations. Total ozone over the Tibetan Plateau in summer was ∼33 Dobson units (DU) lower than zonal mean values over the ocean at the same latitudes during the study period 2005-2009. Satellite observations of ozone profiles show that ozone concentrations over the ASM region have lower values in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) than over the non-ASM region. This is caused by frequent convective transport of low-ozone air from the lower troposphere to the UTLS region combined with trapping by the South Asian High. This offset contributes to a ∼20-DU deficit in the ozone column over the ASM region. In addition, along the same latitude, total ozone changes identically with variations of the terrain height, showing a high correlation with terrain heights over the ASM region, which includes both the Tibetan and Iranian plateaus. This is confirmed by the fact that the Tibetan and Iranian plateaus have very similar vertical distributions of ozone in the UTLS, but they have different terrain heights and different total-column ozone levels. These two factors (lower UTLS ozone and higher terrain height) imply 40 DU in the lower-ozone column, but the Tibetan Plateau ozone column is only ∼33 DU lower than that over the non-ASM region. This fact suggests that the lower troposphere has higher ozone concentrations over the ASM region than elsewhere at the same latitude, contributing ∼7 DU of total ozone, which is consistent with ozonesonde and satellite observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the data analysis, this study further explores the characteristics of East Asian winter monsoon (hereafter, EA WM, for brevity) as well as the related air-sea-land system, and illustrates how and to what degree anomalous signals of the subsequent Asian summer monsoon are rooted in the preceding EA WM activity. We identified an important air-sea coupled mode, i.e., the EA WM mode illustrated in Section 3. In cold seasons, strong EA WM-related air-sea two-way interaction is responsible for the development and persistence of the SSTA pattern of EA WM mode. As a consequence, the key regions, i.e., the western Pacific and South China Sea (hereafter, SCS, for brevity), are dominated by such an SSTA pattern from the winter to the following summer. In the strong EA WM years, the deficient snow cover dominates eastern Tibetan Plateau in winter, and in spring, this anomaly pattern is further strengthened and extended to the northwestern side of Tibetan Plateau. Thus, the combined effect of strong EA WM-related SSTA and Tibetan snow cover constitutes an important factor in modulating the Asian monsoon circulation. The active role of the EA WM activity as well as the related air-sea-land interaction would, in the subsequent seasons, lead to: 1) the enhancement of SCS monsoon and related stronger rainfall; 2) the northward displacement of subtropical high during Meiyu period and the related deficient rainfall over Meiyu rainband; 3) above-normal precipitation over the regions from northern Japan to northeastern China in summer; 4) more rainfall over the Arabian Sea and Northeast India, while less rainfall over southwest India and the Bay of Bengal. The strong EA WM-related air-sea interaction shows, to some degree, precursory signals to the following Asian summer monsoon. However, the mechanism for the variability of Indian summer monsoon subsequent to the strong EA WM years remains uncertain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East Asian monsoon system is an important part of global atmospheric circulation; however, records of the East Asian monsoon from different regions exhibit different evolutionary rhythms. Here, we show a high-resolution record of grain size and pollen data from a lacustrine sediment core of Dajiuhu Lake in Shennongjia, Hubei Province, China, in order to reconstruct the paleovegetation and paleoeclimate evolution of the Dajiuhu Basin since the late Middle Pleistocene (~237.9 ka to the present). The results show that grain size and pollen record of the core DJH-2 are consistent with the δ18O record of stalagmites from Sanbao Cave in the same area, which is closely related to the changes of insolation at the precessional (~20-kyr) scale in the Northern Hemisphere. This is different from the records of the Asian summer monsoon recorded in the Loess Plateau of North China, which exhibited dominant 100-kyr change cyclicities. We suggest that the difference between paleoclimatic records from North and South China is closely related to the east–west-oriented mountain ranges of the Qinling Mountains in central China that blocked weakened East Asia summer monsoons across the mountains during glacial periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of Asian summer monsoon is analyzed by means of decomposition of the atmospheric circulation into basic current and slowly varying monsoon disturbances. It is seen that the major slowly varying disturbances are two vortical couples, one located in the Indian Ocean and Indian Peninsula, and another in the Northern Hemispheric western Pacific Ocean and the East Asia. This indicates that the Asian summer monsoon consists of two branches, the Indian monsoon and the East Asian monsoon. Moreover, the analysis shows that the evolutionary processes of these two vortical couples are rather independent each other, and they all can be qualitatively interpreted by the dynamical theory of wave packet. The different stages of summer monsoon can be very well characterized by the location and intensity of the two vortical couples. Besides, in particular years there exists also some quasistationary wave train and its characteristics should be further analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) plays an important role in maintaining ecosystem health and stability in western Liaoning Province and the southern Horqin sand land, Northeast China, with benefits including sand fixation and soil erosion. In the context of climate change, developing a better understanding of the relationship between climate factors and growth rates of this species will be extremely valuable in guiding management activities and meeting regional conservation objectives. Here, the results based on two groups of tree-ring samples show that the radial growth of Chinese pine is controlled primarily by water conditions. The longer chronology had the highest correlation coefficient with the January–September mean self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI); therefore, drought variability was reconstructed for the period 1859–2014. Statistical analysis showed that our model explained 41.9% of the variance in radial growth during the 1951–2014 calibration period. Extreme dry and wet events, defined as the criteria of one standard deviation less or greater than the mean value, accounted for 19.9% and 18.6% of the 156-year climate record, respectively. During the past century, the regional hydroclimate experienced significant long-term fluctuations. The dry periods occurred from the early-1900s–1930s and 1980s–2000s, and the wet periods occurred from the 1940s–1970s. The drought reconstruction was consistent with the decreasing trend of the East Asian summer monsoon since the late 1970s. The reconstructed temporal patterns in hydroclimate in western Liaoning were closely related to the large-scale climate drivers in the North Pacific and the tropical equatorial Pacific. The teleconnections were confirmed by spatial correlations between the reconstructed sequence and sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific, as well as the correlations with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices. Aerosols played an important role in affecting drought variations over the past several decades. Moisture stress caused by global warming and interdecadal changes in the PDO will have long-term effects on the growth of pines in the study area in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]