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This paper discusses the interannual variation of winter cold surges (CSs) over East Asia (EA) from the perspective of the cold air path and its relationship with autumn Barents Sea ice concentration (BSIC). Flexible particle dispersion model for large-scale atmospheric transport process simulation is used to track the cold air path of 301 CSs in EA in winters from 1979 to 2017, and the probability density distribution of cold air path is calculated by kernel density estimation. The cold air mainly originates from the Ural Mountains, and is continuously cooled by the impact of cold land, then accumulates and strengthens near the Lake Baikal, and finally invades EA under the guidance of the northwest airflow. The autumn BSIC has a significant negative correlation with CSs over EA. The decreased autumn BSIC hinders the spread of zonal warm advection over Eurasia and makes the soil temperature near Lake Baikal drop, and the negative anomaly of soil temperature persists from autumn to winter, strengthening cold source therein, which provides suitable thermal conditions for occurring more CSs over EA. Moreover, the decreased autumn BSIC can also persist to winter, which leads to the positive anomaly of the geopotential height over the polar region. Through the propagation of Rossby wave, the negative geopotential height anomaly over EA is excited and provides the appropriate dynamic conditions for forming more CSs in EA. The simulations from the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3) further confirm the proposed possible mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monsoon onset over the South China Sea occurs in April–May, marking the start of the wet season over East Asia. Skillful prediction of onset timing remains an open challenge. Recently, theoretical studies using idealized models have revealed feedbacks at work during the seasonal transitions of the Hadley cells and have shown that these are relevant to monsoon onset over Asia. Here, I hypothesize that monsoon onset occurs earlier in years when the atmosphere over the South China Sea is already in a state where these feedbacks are more easily triggered. I find that local anomalies in lower‐level moist static energy in the preceding January–March are well correlated with South China Sea Monsoon onset timing. This relationship remains relatively consistent on decadal timescales, while correlations with other teleconnections vary, and is used to develop a simple forecast model for onset timing that shows skill competitive with that of more complex models. Plain Language Summary: Arable land in China is estimated to feed 20% of the world's population on 7% of the world's farmlands, with much of this region watered by rainfall from the East Asian Summer Monsoon. Forecasting the arrival of the monsoon, which occurs first over the South China Sea in April–May, is therefore helpful for agricultural planning. However, producing a reliable forecast remains an open challenge. Recently, simple climate models, for example, models including seasons but with no land, have been used along with observations to investigate the most basic processes controlling climatological monsoon onset over Asia. In this paper, I suggest that year‐to‐year variations in monsoon onset timing are controlled by the same processes and, based on these, I suggest climate variables that may help in predicting when the monsoon will begin. By using this approach, I find that the "Moist Static Energy" (a quantity that combines temperature and humidity) over the South China Sea in January–March is strongly correlated with monsoon onset timing. This insight can be used to predict future onset timing competitively compared with more complex forecast models. Key Points: Recent theoretical studies have revealed feedbacks at work during monsoon onsetIf the spring atmosphere is in a state where these feedbacks are easily triggered, onset is earlierThis insight is used to produce a simple forecast of South China Sea Monsoon onset timing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paths of winter cold surge (CS) events in East Asia (EA) from 1979 to 2017 are tracked by the Flexible Particle (FLEXPART) model using ERA-Interim daily datasets, and the probability density distribution of the paths is calculated by the kernel density estimation (KDE) method. The results showed that the paths of CSs are significantly correlated with the intensity of the CSs, which shows an interdecadal transition from weak to strong around 1995. CS paths can be classified into two types, namely, the western path type and the northern path type, which were more likely to occur before and after 1995, respectively. Before 1995, the cold air mainly originated from Europe and moved from west to east, and the synoptic features were associated with the zonal wave train. After 1995, cold air accumulated over western Siberia and then invaded EA along the northern path, and the synoptic features were mainly associated with the blocking structure. The geopotential height (GPH) anomalies over the Arctic were abnormally strong. This paper further analyzes the relationship between CSs and winter sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Arctic. The results show that the intensity of CSs is negatively correlated with the Barents SIC (BSIC). When the BSIC declines, the upward wave flux over the Barents Sea is enhanced and expanded to the midlatitude region. GPH anomalies over the Arctic are positive and form a negative AO-like pattern, which is conducive to the formation of the northern path CS. Furthermore, the observed results are supported by numerical experiments with the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model, version 5.3 (CAM5.3). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Obvious biases in simulating tropical cyclone (TC) genesis of the current climate models hamper our understanding of TC changes. In this study, we found a delay of the seasonal cycle of TC genesis frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) in most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models. During the active TC season, the simulated south‐warming and north‐cooling surface temperature bias amplifies the meridional gradient and excites thermal winds. This weakens the western North Pacific Subtropical High and easterly monsoon trough, which further reduces TC genesis frequency over the western WNP in summer. But in autumn, positive TC genesis biases were only observed in coupled models over the eastern WNP. Both seasons contribute to the delayed seasonal cycle of TC frequency in models. Our findings highlight the importance of accurate simulation of surface temperature by climate models to TC simulations and aid in future model improvements. Plain Language Summary: Tropical cyclone (TC) is a devastating weather system generated over the tropical ocean, and the climate model serves as an important tool to study the long‐term variability of TC activity. Hence, it is imperative to explore the biases of climate models in simulating TC genesis. In this investigation, we find a substantial influence of surface temperature bias in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models on the simulation of the seasonal cycle of TC genesis frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP). The delay in the seasonal cycle of TC genesis frequency is widespread among most CMIP6 models. During boreal summer and autumn, the simulated bias of south‐warming and north‐cooling surface temperature increases its meridional gradient and triggers thermal winds. In summer, the weak western North Pacific Subtropical High and easterly monsoon trough, two crucial large‐scale circulation systems, cause a large negative TC genesis bias in models over the western WNP, substantially contributing to the delay of the seasonal cycle. Meanwhile, the relatively small positive bias of coupled models over the eastern WNP in autumn makes a secondary contribution. The combined contributions of these biases cause delays in seasonal simulation of TC genesis frequency. Key Points: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models produce delayed seasonal cycles of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North PacificBiases in East Asia summer monsoon and western North Pacific subtropical high lead to underestimation of tropical cyclone genesis during summerThe biased large‐scale circulation systems are further related to a warm southern and cold northern surface temperature bias [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cold extremes have large impacts on human society. Understanding the physical processes dominating the changes in cold extremes is crucial for a reliable projection of future climate change. The observed cold extremes have decreased during the last several decades, and this trend will continue under future global warming. Here, we quantitatively identify the contributions of dynamic (changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation) and thermodynamic (rising temperatures resulting from global warming) effects to East Asian cold extremes in the past several decades and in a future warm climate by using two sets of large-ensemble simulations of climate models. We show that the dynamic component accounts for over 80 % of the cold-month (coldest 5 % boreal winter months) surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly over the past 5 decades. However, in a future warm climate, the thermodynamic change is the main contributor to the decreases in the intensity and occurrence probability of East Asian cold extremes, while the dynamic change is also contributive. The intensity of East Asian cold extremes will decrease by around 5 °C at the end of the 21st century, in which the thermodynamic (dynamic) change contributes approximately 75 % (25 %). The present-day (1986–2005) East Asian cold extremes will almost never occur after around 2035, and this will happen 10 years later due solely to thermodynamic change. The upward trend of a positive Arctic Oscillation-like sea level pressure pattern dominates the changes in the dynamic component. The finding provides a useful reference for policymakers in climate change adaptation activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable attribution of Asian summer monsoon variations to aerosol forcing is critical to reducing uncertainties in future projections of regional water availability, which is of utmost importance for risk management and adaptation planning in this densely populated region. Yet, simulating the monsoon remains a challenge for climate models that suffer from long-standing biases, undermining their reliability in attributing anthropogenically forced changes. We analyze a suite of climate model experiments to identify a link between model biases and monsoon responses to Asian aerosols and associated physical mechanisms, including the role of large-scale circulation changes. The aerosol impact on monsoon precipitation and circulation is strongly influenced by a model's ability to simulate the spatio-temporal variability in the climatological monsoon winds, clouds, and precipitation across Asia, which modulates the magnitude and efficacy of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, an important component of the total aerosol response. There is a strong interplay between South Asia and East Asia monsoon precipitation biases and their relative predominance in driving the overall monsoon response. We found a striking contrast between the early- and late-summer aerosol-driven changes ascribable to opposite signs and seasonal evolution of the biases in the two regions. A realistic simulation of the evolution of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is crucial to realize the full extent of the aerosol impact over Asia. These findings provide important implications for better understanding and constraining the diversity and inconsistencies of model responses to aerosol changes over Asia in historical simulations and future projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wet bulb temperature (Tw) has gained considerable attention as a crucial indicator of heat-related health risks. Here we report south-to-north spatially heterogeneous trends of Tw in China over 1979-2018. We find that actual water vapor pressure (Ea) changes play a dominant role in determining the different trend of Tw in southern and northern China, which is attributed to the faster warming of high-latitude regions of East Asia as a response to climate change. This warming effect regulates large-scale atmospheric features and leads to extended impacts of the South Asia high (SAH) and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) over southern China and to suppressed moisture transport. Attribution analysis using climate model simulations confirms these findings. We further find that the entire eastern China, that accommodates 94% of the country's population, is likely to experience widespread and uniform elevated thermal stress the end of this century. Our findings highlight the necessity for development of adaptation measures in eastern China to avoid adverse impacts of heat stress, suggesting similar implications for other regions as well. Attributing spatially heterogeneous heat stress trends to water vapor pressure changes driven by climate change-induced rapid warming in high-latitudes of East Asia, the authors predict widespread and uniform future heat stress in eastern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of Arctic sea ice on climate in middle and high latitudes have been extensively studied. However, its effects on climate in low latitudes, particularly on summer monsoon rainfall in the South China Sea (SCS), have received limited attention. Thus, this study investigates the connection between the Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) anomaly and the early summer monsoon rainfall (ESMR) in the SCS and its underlying physical mechanism. The results reveal a significant positive correlation between the Barents Sea (BS) SIC in May and the ESMR in the SCS. When there is more (less) SIC in the Barents Sea (BS) during May, this results in a positive (negative) anomaly of the local turbulent heat flux, which lasts until June. This, in turn, excites an upward (downward) air motion anomaly in the vicinity of the BS, causing a corresponding downward (upward) motion anomaly over the Black Sea. Consequently, this triggers a wave train similar to the Eurasian (SEU) teleconnection, propagating eastward towards East Asia. The SEU further leads to an (a) upward (downward) motion anomaly and weakens (strengthens) the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) over the SCS, which is accompanied by a southwest adequate (scarce) water vapor anomaly transporting from the Indian Ocean, resulting in more (less) precipitation in the SCS. Furthermore, the response of ESMR in the SCS to the SIC in the BS is further verified by using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3). This study introduces novel precursor factors that influence the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM), presenting a new insight for climate prediction in this region, which holds significant implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought risk threatens pastoralism in rangelands, which are already under strain from climatic and socioeconomic changes. We examine the future drought risk (2031–2060 and 2071–2100) to rangeland productivity across Eurasia (West, Central, and East Asia) using a well-tested process-based ecosystem model and projections of five climate models under three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios of low (SSP1−2.6), medium (SSP3−7.0), and high (SSP5−8.5) warming relative to 1985–2014. We employ a probabilistic approach, with risk defined as the expected productivity loss induced by the probability of hazardous droughts (determined by a precipitation-based index) and vulnerability (the response of rangeland productivity to hazardous droughts). Drought risk and vulnerability are projected to increase in magnitude and area across Eurasian rangelands, with greater increases in 2071–2100 under the medium and high warming scenarios than in 2031–2060. Increasing risk in West Asia is caused by longer and more intense droughts and vulnerability, whereas higher risk in Central and East Asia is mainly associated with increased vulnerability, indicating overall risk is higher where vulnerability increases. These findings suggest that future droughts may exacerbate livestock feed shortages and negatively impact pastoralism. The results have practical implications for rangeland management that should be adapted to the ecological and socioeconomic contexts of the different countries in the region. Existing traditional ecological knowledge can be promoted to adapt to drought risk and embedded in a wider set of adaptation measures involving management improvements, social transformations, capacity building, and policy reforms addressing multiple stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The performance of the Meteorological Research Institute-Atmospheric General Circulation model version 3.2 (MRI-AGCM3.2) in simulating precipitation is compared with that of global atmospheric models registered to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiments simulated by 36 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM)s and the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) highresSST-present experiments simulated by 23 AGCMs were analyzed. Simulations by MRI-AGCM3.2S (20-km grid size) and MRI-AGCM3.2H (60-km grid size) are included as a part of the HighResMIP highresSST-present experiments. MRI-AGCM3.2S has the highest horizontal resolution of all 59 AGCMs. As for the global distribution of seasonal and annual average precipitation, monthly precipitation over East Asia, and the seasonal march of rainy zone over Japan, MRI-AGCM3.2 models perform better than or equal to CMIP6 AMIP AGCMs and HighResMIP AGCMs. HighResMIP AGCMs (average grid size 78 km) perform better than CMIP6 AMIP AGCMs (180 km) in simulating seasonal and annual precipitation over the globe, and summer (June to August) precipitation over East Asia. MRI-AGCM3.2 models perform better than or equal to CMIP6 AMIP AGCMs and HighResMIP AGCMs in simulating extreme precipitation events over the globe. Correlation analysis between grid size and model performance using all 59 models revealed that higher horizontal resolution models are better than lower resolution models in simulating the global distribution of seasonal and annual precipitation and the global distribution of intense precipitation, and the local distribution of summer precipitation over East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Organic aerosols from marine sources over the western Pacific Ocean of East Asia were investigated using an online coupled regional chemistry–climate model RIEMS-Chem for the entire year 2014. Model evaluation against a wide variety of observations from research cruises and in situ measurements demonstrated a good skill of the model in simulating temporal variation and spatial distribution of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 and 10 µm (PM 2.5 and PM 10), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), sodium, and aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the marine atmosphere. The inclusion of marine organic aerosols improved model performance on OC concentration by reducing model biases of up to 20 %. The regional and annual mean near-surface marine organic aerosol (MOA) concentration was estimated to be 0.27 µgm-3 , with the maximum in spring and the minimum in winter, and contributed 26 % of the total organic aerosol concentration on average over the western Pacific. Marine primary organic aerosol (MPOA) accounted for the majority of marine organic aerosol (MOA) mass, and the MPOA concentration exhibited the maximum in autumn and the minimum in summer, whereas marine secondary organic aerosol (MSOA) was approximately 1–2 orders of magnitude lower than MPOA, having a distinct summer maximum and a winter minimum. MOA induced a direct radiative effect (DRE MOA) of - 0.27 Wm-2 and an indirect radiative effect (IRE MOA) of - 0.66 Wm-2 at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) in terms of annual and oceanic average over the western Pacific, with the highest seasonal mean IRE MOA up to - 0.94 Wm-2 in spring. IRE MOA was stronger than, but in a similar magnitude to, the IRE due to sea salt aerosol on average, and it was approximately 9 % of the IRE due to anthropogenic aerosols in terms of annual mean over the western Pacific. This ratio increased to 19 % in the northern parts of the western Pacific in autumn. This study reveals an important role of MOA in perturbing cloud properties and shortwave radiation fluxes in the western Pacific of East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the differences in performance and results by various versions of the ISORROPIA thermodynamic module implemented within the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. Three different versions of the module were used, ISORROPIA II v1, ISORROPIA II v2.3, and ISORROPIA-lite. First, ISORROPIA II v2.3 replaced ISORROPIA II v1 in EMAC to improve pH predictions close to neutral conditions. The newly developed ISORROPIA-lite has been added to EMAC alongside ISORROPIA II v2.3. ISORROPIA-lite is more computationally efficient and assumes that atmospheric aerosols exist always as supersaturated aqueous (metastable) solutions, while ISORROPIA II includes the option to allow for the formation of solid salts at low RH conditions (stable state). The predictions of EMAC by employing all three aerosol thermodynamic models were compared to each other and evaluated against surface measurements from three regional observational networks in the polluted Northern Hemisphere (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE), European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP), and Acid Deposition Monitoring Network of East Asia (EANET)). The differences between ISORROPIA II v2.3 and ISORROPIA-lite were minimal in all comparisons with the normalized mean absolute difference for the concentrations of all major aerosol components being less than 11 % even when different phase state assumptions were used. The most notable differences were lower aerosol concentrations predicted by ISORROPIA-lite in regions with relative humidity in the range of 20 % to 60 % compared to the predictions of ISORROPIA II v2.3 in stable mode. The comparison against observations yielded satisfactory agreement especially over the USA and Europe but higher deviations over East Asia, where the overprediction of EMAC for nitrate was as high as 4 µ g m -3 (∼20%). The mean annual aerosol pH predicted by ISORROPIA-lite was on average less than a unit lower than ISORROPIA II v2.3 in stable mode, mainly for coarse-mode aerosols over the Middle East. The use of ISORROPIA-lite accelerated EMAC by nearly 5 % compared to the use of ISORROPIA II v2.3 even if the aerosol thermodynamic calculations consume a relatively small fraction of the EMAC computational time. ISORROPIA-lite can therefore be a reliable and computationally efficient alternative to the previous thermodynamic module in EMAC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on outputs of 28 coupled models from the Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we show that the response of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon to the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during post‐ENSO summer will likely strengthen in a warmer climate, which can be attributed to concurrently weakened sea‐surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP). The weakened WEP SSTAs are primarily caused by enhanced latent heat damping due to increased surface wind speed anomalies, which are associated with the eastward shift of the El Niño‐induced anomalous Walker circulation due to El Niño‐like sea surface temperature change in the tropical Pacific under global warming. Besides, the climatological zonal ocean currents will slow down due to the weakening of climatological Walker circulation, which also acts to weaken the WEP SSTAs via reducing the advection of anomalous temperature by the mean current. Plain Language Summary: As an important component of the Asian monsoon system, the Southeast Asian summer monsoon (SEASM) is crucial for the livelihoods of billions of people in East Asia, and is closely connected to a climate phenomenon called El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Understanding how the relationship between SEASM and ENSO will change in the future is important for enhancing our knowledge of climate change in East Asia. Outputs of 28 climate models from the Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project show that ENSO will exert enhanced impacts on the SEASM in a warmer climate. The enhanced influences of ENSO on the monsoon will exacerbate the reduction of rainfall over the western North Pacific during the post‐El Niño summer. We find that such projected changes are mainly caused by weakened warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (SSTAs) in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP). Further analyses indicate that the change in WEP SSTAs can be linked to the El Niño‐like change in climatological SSTs in the tropical Pacific. This study depicts detailed physical processes responsible for the projected changes in ENSO's impacts on the SEASM. Key Points: The effects of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation on the Southeast Asian summer monsoon will strengthen under global warmingThe enhanced El Niño's impacts result from the weakened warm sea‐surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP)The weakened WEP SST anomalies are related to the eastward shift of anomalous Walker circulation and the slackened mean zonal ocean currents [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cosmogenic radionuclides 7 Be and 10 Be are useful tracers for atmospheric transport studies. Combining 7 Be and 10 Be measurements with an atmospheric transport model can not only improve our understanding of the radionuclide transport and deposition processes but also provide an evaluation of the transport process in the model. To simulate these aerosol tracers, it is critical to evaluate the influence of radionuclide production uncertainties on simulations. Here we use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model driven by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis to simulate 7 Be and 10 Be with the state-of-the-art production rate from the CRAC:Be (Cosmic Ray Atmospheric Cascade: Beryllium) model considering realistic spatial geomagnetic cutoff rigidities (denoted as P16spa). We also perform two sensitivity simulations: one with the default production rate in GEOS-Chem based on an empirical approach (denoted as LP67) and the other with the production rate from the CRAC:Be but considering only geomagnetic cutoff rigidities for a geocentric axial dipole (denoted as P16). The model results are comprehensively evaluated with a large number of measurements including surface air concentrations and deposition fluxes. The simulation with the P16spa production can reproduce the absolute values and temporal variability of 7 Be and 10 Be surface concentrations and deposition fluxes on annual and sub-annual scales, as well as the vertical profiles of air concentrations. The simulation with the LP67 production tends to overestimate the absolute values of 7 Be and 10 Be concentrations. The P16 simulation suggests less than 10 % differences compared to P16spa but a significant positive bias (∼18 %) in the 7 Be deposition fluxes over East Asia. We find that the deposition fluxes are more sensitive to the production in the troposphere and downward transport from the stratosphere. Independent of the production models, surface air concentrations and deposition fluxes from all simulations show similar seasonal variations, suggesting a dominant meteorological influence. The model can also reasonably simulate the stratosphere–troposphere exchange process of 7 Be and 10 Be by producing stratospheric contribution and 10Be/7Be ratio values that agree with measurements. Finally, we illustrate the importance of including the time-varying solar modulations in the production calculation, which significantly improve the agreement between model results and measurements, especially at mid-latitudes and high latitudes. Reduced uncertainties in the production rates, as demonstrated in this study, improve the utility of 7 Be and 10 Be as aerosol tracers for evaluating and testing transport and scavenging processes in global models. For future GEOS-Chem simulations of 7 Be and 10 Be, we recommend using the P16spa (versus default LP67) production rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variability of the summer North Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH) has substantial socioeconomic impacts. However, state‐of‐the‐art climate models significantly disagree on the response of the NPSH to anthropogenic warming. Inter‐model spread in NPSH projections originates from models' inconsistency in simulating tropical precipitation changes. This inconsistency in precipitation changes is partly due to inter‐model spread in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) changes, but it can also occur independently of uncertainty in SST changes. Here, we show that both types of precipitation uncertainty influence the NPSH via the Matsuno‐Gill wave response, but their relative impact varies by region. Through the modulation of low cloud fraction, inter‐model spread of the NPSH can have a further impact on extra‐tropical land surface temperature. The teleconnection between tropical precipitation and the NPSH is examined through a series of numerical experiments. Plain Language Summary: The North Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH) is a semi‐permanent high‐pressure system located in the subtropical North Pacific. The variability in the summer NPSH has a significant impact on the monsoon and typhoons over East Asia and the hydroclimate of California. However, future projections of the NPSH using state‐of‐the‐art climate models remain highly uncertain. By evaluating how much individual models deviate from the multi‐model mean at different locations, we find four hot spots of high uncertainty in NPSH projections. Our analysis further reveals that the primary source of model variance in changes in the NPSH is tropical precipitation, which can be attributed to both inter‐model SST‐driven and non‐inter‐model SST‐driven factors. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate that the teleconnection between tropical precipitation and the NPSH is achieved through wave propagation. Key Points: Model spread in the response of the summer North Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH) to CO2 stems from model spread in simulating tropical processesModel spread in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) changes modulates the NPSH by influencing tropical precipitationModel spread in tropical precipitation changes independent of model spread in SST changes also adds to the uncertainty of the NPSH response [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ozone valley over the Tibetan Plateau (OVTP) has experienced significant interannual variations during the past decades. Previous studies have primarily focused on the origins of OVTP rather than its climate impact. This study reveals that OVTP during its peak season (May–July) explains up to 15% of the summer precipitation variability in East Asia. The results suggest that the surface temperature (Ts) anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) acts as a link between OVTP and East Asian precipitation. Through the positive land-atmosphere feedback, the Ts anomaly over the TP is amplified. The anomalous Ts pattern persists into summer (June–August) due to the land memory effect and impacts the East Asian precipitation by modulating the local circulation. The Specified-Chemistry version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model is employed to validate that MJJ OVTP results in a substantial increase of Ts over TP and induces an anomalous anti-cyclone centered over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin during summer. Consequently, negative precipitation anomalies are observed in the Yangtze River Basin, while positive precipitation anomalies occur in Southern China. The linear baroclinic model further demonstrates that the diabatic heating over the TP serves as the link between MJJ OVTP and East Asian summer precipitation patterns. Our analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models reveals that a more accurate prediction of East Asian precipitation requires an improved understanding of the relationship between OVTP and TP Ts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Despite knowledge of the presence of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in reorganizing large-scale atmospheric circulation, it remains unclear how surface albedo darkening over TP will impact local glaciers and remote Asian monsoon systems. Here, we use a coupled land-atmosphere global climate model and a glacier model to address these questions. Under a high-emission scenario, TP surface albedo darkening will increase local temperature by 0.24 K by the end of this century. This warming will strengthen the elevated heat pump of TP, increasing South Asian monsoon precipitation while exacerbating the current "South Flood-North Drought" pattern over East Asia. The albedo darkening-induced climate change also leads to an accompanying TP glacier volume loss of 6.9%, which further increases to 25.2% at the equilibrium, with a notable loss in western TP. Our findings emphasize the importance of land-surface change responses in projecting future water resource availability, with important implications for water management policies. Impacts of Tibetan Plateau darkening remain unclear. Here authors show that darkening under the RCP8.5 scenario will increase South Asian monsoon precipitation and the "South Flood-North Drought" pattern over East Asia, while lead to local glacier loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Based on the 18 realizations of three state-of-the-art climate models participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), this paper examines the changes in climatology and trends of winter diurnal temperature range (DTR) over East Asia in response to natural and anthropogenic forcings. In the observation, the climatology of DTR during 1979–2014 displays a horizontal tile from southwest to northeast over East Asia. In addition, the observed DTR also presents an obviously declining trend in recent decades, with the magnitude of roughly −0.10 °C decade−1. The historical all-forcing simulations well reproduce the geographical distributions and magnitude of climatology and trends of winter DTR over East Asia in 1979–2014. Furthermore, the winter DTR exhibits a continuous declining trend from the historical scenario to the future SSP245 scenario over East Asia, with the most significant declining during the first half of twenty-first century (i.e., 2021–2060). Based on the individual forcing experiments, it suggests that the greenhouse gases forcing plays a primary role in driving the climatology and trends of DTR over East Asia, especially for the SSP245 scenario. Further analysis indicates that the increasing precipitation under greenhouse gases forcing largely explain the declining DTR trends over East Asia, especially over the northern East Asia both in historical and SSP245 scenarios. • The observed decreasing DTR trends are reasonably captured in the all-forcing historical simulations in CMIP6 models. • The greenhouse gas forcing plays a primary role in driving the declining DTR trends over East Asia • The declining of DTR is partly attributed to the increasing precipitation over East Asia in the greenhouse gas forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Driven by the outputs of four global climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, a long-term downscaling and projection under the RCP8.5 scenario is conducted within the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment East Asia phase II framework with Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). All the single simulations and the ensembles well reproduce the spatial pattern of the precipitation amount over East Asia with the spatial correlations (SCORs) larger than 0.58, although bias exists in some areas. The models also reasonably present the spatial patterns of the extreme precipitation indices except the Rx5day (annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation) and the consecutive dry days (CDD), with the SCORs ranging between 0.43 and 0.71. In general, WRF outperforms RegCM4 in producing the spatial patterns of most extreme precipitation indices and RegCM4 generates lower root mean square errors. In the future, the precipitation amount would significantly increase in northeastern China and northwestern China and over the Tibetan Plateau, which is mainly due to the increase of precipitation intensity in WRF and frequency in RegCM4. The extreme frequency and intensity indices are projected to significantly increase over the Tibetan Plateau and some areas of northwestern China. In addition, the consecutive wet days will get significantly longer in the above regions, where the consecutive dry days will shorten, indicating more consecutive precipitation events in the future. The change in the probability distribution of the extreme indices reveals that stronger and longer-duration extreme precipitation events would get more frequent in the future. The increase of low-level specific humidity can partly explain the increase of precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the contributing factors of East Asian heatwaves (EAHWs) linked to the Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP) over the past 42 years (1979–2020). EAHWs are mainly affected by two time scales of variabilities: long-term externally forced and interannual variabilities. The externally forced EAHWs are attributed to the increasing global warming trend, while their interannual variability is related to the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) and the ASP teleconnection patterns. In addition to the CGT, the Rossby wave energy originating from the ASP propagates to East Asia through the upper troposphere, amplifying the EAHWs. The stationary high pressure in the ASP is generated by vorticity advection in the upper troposphere. Enhanced surface radiative heating and evaporation on the ASP surface increase the specific humidity and temperature, amplifying the thermal high pressure via positive water vapor feedback. Thermal high-pressure amplified by land–atmosphere interactions in the ASP during the peak summer season leads to EAHWs by the propagation of stationary Rossby wave energy. The results indicate that our enhanced understanding of the ASP teleconnection can improve forecasting of the EAHWs not only on a sub-seasonal time scale but also in future projections of global climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatiotemporal modal analysis and prediction of tropospheric atmospheric CO concentration in the world and East Asia from 2002 to 2021 using the inversion data of airs sounder. The results show that: The CO concentration in the northern hemisphere is higher than that in the southern hemisphere; from the upper troposphere to the lower troposphere, the CO concentration changes from " ∧ " to "√"; the fluctuation range of near surface CO concentration in the northern hemisphere is relatively intense, and the fluctuation range in the southern hemisphere is relatively small. Using MK, Sen slope estimation, and EOF analysis, it is found that CO concentration in the convective middle layer tends to decline in more than 90% of the global area, and the decline rate in the northern hemisphere is significantly higher than that in the southern hemisphere. In East Asia, the CO concentration in the lower tropospheric marine area is significantly lower than that in the land area. The average concentration and decline rate of CO in East Asia is always higher than that in the world; the CO concentration in East Asia is the highest in spring and winter in the lower troposphere; and the CO concentration in East Asia is lower in the northeast and higher in the southeast in the upper troposphere in spring, autumn, and winter, and higher in the northeast and Central Plains in summer. Compared with the three-exponential smoothing model, the prediction error of the VMD-LSTM hybrid model for atmospheric CO concentration is significantly reduced, which indicates that the improved neural network prediction model has higher prediction accuracy. The factors affecting the change of tropospheric CO concentration are not only affected by the ground factors, but also related to indirect factors such as water vapor, methane, and atmospheric temperature in the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of hydroclimate in East Asia during the Pliocene—a potential analog of the future greenhouse climate—remains highly uncertain. Here we reconstruct changes in the hydroclimate of Northern China during this epoch. Our results reveal previously undocumented severe drought conditions that persisted through the early Pliocene with a significantly greater magnitude than suggested by other records. Using a broad hierarchy of climate simulations, we find that reduction in the Pacific meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient has particularly strong impacts on precipitation over Northern China, which suggests its key role in maintaining drought conditions during the early Pliocene. The weaker Pacific meridional SST gradient causes the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation over this region via a reduction of atmospheric northward moisture transport from the ocean, which enhances aridity inland. Our results highlight the fundamental control of the tropical ocean on the extra‐tropical hydrological cycle. Plain Language Summary: Understanding East Asian rainfall changes with global warming is an important issue of climate sciences. The Pliocene epoch provides a potential analog to the future greenhouse climate. Here, for the first time we reconstruct high‐resolution aridity changes over the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) in northern East Asia during the Pliocene. Our results indicate persistent drought conditions over CLP during the early Pliocene. Analyzing a broad range of climate model simulations, we find that the reduced meridional sea surface temperature gradient is a critical factor in the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon over Northern China and in maintaining drought conditions during the early Pliocene relative to the late Pliocene. Our results expand the Asian inland paleoclimate records during the Pliocene, providing new information on past Asian monsoon precipitation variations during the warm Pliocene with potential implications for future hydroclimate changes under greenhouse warming in East Asia. Key Points: Severe drought conditions persisted throughout the early Pliocene epoch over Northern ChinaWe link these conditions to the reduced meridional temperature gradient in the Pacific OceanThe reduced Pacific meridional temperature gradient acts to weaken the summer East Asian monsoon precipitation over Northern China [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in East Asia often exceed local air quality standards. Observations from the Korea–United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) field campaign in May and June 2016 showed that development of extreme pollution (haze) occurred through a combination of long-range transport and favorable meteorological conditions that enhanced local production of PM2.5. Atmospheric models often have difficulty simulating PM2.5 chemical composition during haze, which is of concern for the development of successful control measures. We use observations from KORUS-AQ to examine the ability of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to simulate PM2.5 composition throughout the campaign and identify the mechanisms driving the pollution event. At the surface, the model underestimates sulfate by - 64 % but overestimates nitrate by + 36 %. The largest underestimate in sulfate occurs during the pollution event, for which models typically struggle to generate elevated sulfate concentrations due to missing heterogeneous chemistry in aerosol liquid water in the polluted boundary layer. Hourly surface observations show that the model nitrate bias is driven by an overestimation of the nighttime peak. In the model, nitrate formation is limited by the supply of nitric acid, which is biased by + 100 % against aircraft observations. We hypothesize that this is due to a large missing sink, which we implement here as a factor of 5 increase in dry deposition. We show that the resulting increased deposition velocity is consistent with observations of total nitrate as a function of photochemical age. The model does not account for factors such as the urban heat island effect or the heterogeneity of the built-up urban landscape, resulting in insufficient model turbulence and surface area over the study area that likely results in insufficient dry deposition. Other species such as NH3 could be similarly affected but were not measured during the campaign. Nighttime production of nitrate is driven by NO2 hydrolysis in the model, while observations show that unexpectedly elevated nighttime ozone (not present in the model) should result in N2O5 hydrolysis as the primary pathway. The model is unable to represent nighttime ozone due to an overly rapid collapse of the afternoon mixed layer and excessive titration by NO. We attribute this to missing nighttime heating driving deeper nocturnal mixing that would be expected to occur in a city like Seoul. This urban heating is not considered in air quality models run at large enough scales to treat both local chemistry and long-range transport. Key model failures in simulating nitrate, mainly overestimated daytime nitric acid, incorrect representation of nighttime chemistry, and an overly shallow and insufficiently turbulent nighttime mixed layer, exacerbate the model's inability to simulate the buildup of PM2.5 during haze pollution. To address the underestimate in sulfate most evident during the haze event, heterogeneous aerosol uptake of SO2 is added to the model, which previously only considered aqueous production of sulfate from SO2 in cloud water. Implementing a simple parameterization of this chemistry improves the model abundance of sulfate but degrades the SO2 simulation, implying that emissions are underestimated. We find that improving model simulations of sulfate has direct relevance to determining local vs. transboundary contributions to PM2.5. During the haze pollution event, the inclusion of heterogeneous aerosol uptake of SO2 decreases the fraction of PM2.5 attributable to long-range transport from 66 % to 54 %. Locally produced sulfate increased from 1 % to 25 % of locally produced PM2.5 , implying that local emissions controls could have a larger effect than previously thought. However, this additional uptake of SO2 is coupled to the model nitrate prediction, which affects the aerosol liquid water abundance and chemistry driving sulfate–nitrate–ammonium partitioning. An additional simulation of the haze pollution with heterogeneous uptake of SO2 to aerosol and simple improvements to the model nitrate simulation results in 30 % less sulfate due to 40 % less nitrate and aerosol water, and this results in an underestimate of sulfate during the haze event. Future studies need to better consider the impact of model physical processes such as dry deposition and nighttime boundary layer mixing on the simulation of nitrate and the effect of improved nitrate simulations on the overall simulation of secondary inorganic aerosol (sulfate + nitrate + ammonium) in East Asia. Foreign emissions are rapidly changing, increasing the need to understand the impact of local emissions on PM2.5 in South Korea to ensure continued air quality improvements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An anomalous strengthening in western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) increases moisture transport from the tropics to East Asia, inducing anomalous boreal summer monsoonal rainfall, causing extreme weather events in the densely populated region. Such positive WPSH anomalies can be induced by central Pacific (CP) cold sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies of an incipient La Niña and warm anomalies in the Indian and/or the tropical Atlantic Ocean, both promoting anticyclonic anomalies over the northwestern Pacific region. How variability of the WPSH, its extremity, and the associated mechanisms might respond to greenhouse warming remains elusive. Using outputs from 32 of the latest climate models, here we show an increase in WPSH variability translating into a 73% increase in frequency of strong WPSH events under a business-as-usual emission scenario, supported by a strong intermodel consensus. Under greenhouse warming, response of tropical atmosphere convection to CP SST anomalies increases, as does the response of the northwestern Pacific anticyclonic circulation. Thus, climate extremes such as floods in the Yangtze River Valley of East China associated with WPSH variability are likely to be more frequent and more severe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central Asia is one of the most important sources of mineral saline dust worldwide. A comprehensive understanding of Central Asian dust transport is essential for evaluating its impacts on human health, ecological safety, weather and climate. This study first puts forward an observation-based climatology of Central Asian dust transport flux by using the 3-D dust detection of Cloud-Aerosol LiDAR with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). The seasonal difference of transport flux and downstream contribution are evaluated and compared with those of the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). Central Asian dust can be transported not only southward in summer under the effect of the South Asian summer monsoon, but also eastward in other seasons under the control of the westerly jet. Additionally, the transport of Central Asian dust across the Pamir Plateau to the Tibetan Plateau is also non-negligible, especially during spring (with a transport flux rate of 150 kg m−1 day−1). The annual CALIOP-based downstream contribution of Central Asian dust to South Asian (164.01 Tg) is 2.1 times that to East Asia (78.36 Tg). This can be attributed to the blocking effect of the higher terrain between Central and East Asia. Additionally, the downstream contributions to South and East Asia from MERRA-2 are only 0.36 and 0.84 times that of CALIOP, respectively. This difference implies the overestimation of the wet and dry depositions of the model, especially in the low latitude zone. The quantification of the Central Asian dust transport allows a better understanding of the Central Asian dust cycle, and supports the calibration/validation of aerosol-related modules of regional and global climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meteorological to hydrological drought propagation has been widely studied to reflect the relationship between these drought categories and better understand drought mechanisms. However, global warming may alter the drought propagation features, which are not fully understood. This study aims to investigate changes in meteorological and hydrological drought conditions, especially their propagation features in 1.5–3.0°C warmer climates for 8,655 watersheds globally. First, the three‐month scale standardized precipitation index and the standardized runoff index are calculated based on the precipitation simulated by the 15 global climate models and the runoff simulated by the four hydrological models, respectively. Drought events are then identified using the run theory, followed by the calculation of drought propagation features (i.e., pooling, lag, and lengthening) for matched meteorological and hydrological droughts. As a result, both meteorological and hydrological drought conditions (i.e., duration and severity) would relieve in warmer climates due to increased precipitation for regions excluding Western North America, South America, the Mediterranean, Southern Africa, East Asia, and Australia. However, the drought conditions would be more severe during drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological droughts over most regions. During drought propagation, the worsening drought conditions over half of the regions would be more serious first and then relieved with the rising temperature. These results indicate that efforts to slow down global warming can suppress the deterioration of drought conditions in the propagation. Plain Language Summary: Droughts can be categorized into meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, and socioeconomic types from different impacted aspects. Investigating meteorological to hydrological drought propagation can reflect the relationship between these two drought categories to understand the drought mechanism better. However, it is not fully understood whether global warming would alter the drought propagation features or not. Therefore, we evaluated the change of meteorological and hydrological drought conditions, especially their propagation features in 1.5 to 3.0°C warmer climates for 8,655 watersheds around the world. Here we show that both meteorological and hydrological drought conditions would relieve in warmer climates due to the increase of precipitation for regions excluding Western North America, South America, the Mediterranean, Southern Africa, East Asia, and Australia. However, the drought conditions would be more severe during drought propagation over most regions in warmer climates. Our findings promote a better understanding of drought propagation changes under global warming. Key Points: Both meteorological and hydrological drought conditions are projected to relieve in warmer climates for around half of global regionsThe duration and severity developing from meteorological to hydrological droughts would be more severe over most regionsThe worsening duration and severity during the propagation over half of the regions would intensify first and then ease in warmer climates [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate subseasonal prediction of East Asian summer precipitation (EASP) requires a deep understanding of the origins of its intraseasonal variability (ISV). However, the relative contributions to the EASP ISV from local processes, tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), and extratropical influence remain unknown. We conducted a set of numerical experiments with a grid nudging method to confirm the roles of external forcing from mid‐to‐high latitude wave trains and tropical ISO and quantify their relative contributions. The Community Earth System Model can reproduce realistic EASP ISV and associated preceding signals. The tropical and mid‐to‐high latitude forcings account for, respectively, 53% and 40% of the total variance for the two leading ISV modes of EASP. The tropical forcing contributes more significantly to the two leading modes (31% and 40%, respectively) compared to the extratropical forcing (24% and 15%). These external forcings mainly affect EASP regional averages rather than the values of local (grid) scale. Plain Language Summary: East Asian summer monsoon precipitation exhibits significant fluctuations on a 2–5‐week time scale beyond the synoptic scale. These fluctuations are called intraseasonal variability (ISV). Since East Asia is located in between the largest continent (Eurasia) and the largest ocean (the Pacific), its ISV is affected by the southeastward propagating high‐latitude disturbances (wave trains) and northwestward propagating tropical ISV. However, the relative roles of these outside influences have never been quantified. We applied a climate model that could reproduce realistic ISV and designed a suite of numerical experiments to quantitatively determine the contributions of these "external forcings" to the East Asian ISV. About one half of the total intraseasonal variance (a measure of ISV intensity) arises from the mid‐to‐high latitude and tropical forcings. Thus, accurate simulations of tropical ISV and mid‐to‐high latitude wave trains are critical for improving subseasonal prediction over East Asia. Key Points: Community Earth System Model performs well in simulating the leading intraseasonal variability (ISV) modes of East Asian summer precipitation (EASP) and their preceding tropical and mid‐to‐high latitude signalsTropical and mid‐to‐high latitude forcings together contribute half of the total variance of the two leading ISV modes of EASPExternal tropical and mid‐to‐high latitude forcings affect EASP ISV more apparently on a regional, rather than a local, spatial scale [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ammonia (NH3) plays a central role in the chemistry of inorganic secondary aerosols in the atmosphere. The largest emission sector for NH3 is agriculture, where NH3 is volatilized from livestock wastes and fertilized soils. Although the NH3 volatilization from soils is driven by the soil temperature and moisture, many atmospheric chemistry models prescribe the emission using yearly emission inventories and climatological seasonal variations. Here we evaluate an alternative approach where the NH3 emissions from agriculture are simulated interactively using the process model FANv2 (Flow of Agricultural Nitrogen, version 2) coupled to the Community Atmospheric Model with Chemistry (CAM-chem). We run a set of 6-year global simulations using the NH3 emission from FANv2 and three global emission inventories (EDGAR, CEDS and HTAP) and evaluate the model performance using a global set of multi-component (atmospheric NH3 and NH4+ , and NH4+ wet deposition) in situ observations. Over East Asia, Europe and North America, the simulations with different emissions perform similarly when compared with the observed geographical patterns. The seasonal distributions of NH3 emissions differ between the inventories, and the comparison to observations suggests that both FANv2 and the inventories would benefit from more realistic timing of fertilizer applications. The largest differences between the simulations occur over data-scarce regions. In Africa, the emissions simulated by FANv2 are 200 %–300 % higher than in the inventories, and the available in situ observations from western and central Africa, as well as NH3 retrievals from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) instrument, are consistent with the higher NH3 emissions as simulated by FANv2. Overall, in simulating ammonia and ammonium concentrations over regions with detailed regional emission inventories, the inventories based on these details (HTAP, CEDS) capture the atmospheric concentrations and their seasonal variability the best. However these inventories cannot capture the impact of meteorological variability on the emissions, nor can these inventories couple the emissions to the biogeochemical cycles and their changes with climate drivers. Finally, we show with sensitivity experiments that the simulated time-averaged nitrate concentration in air is sensitive to the temporal resolution of the NH3 emissions. Over the CASTNET monitoring network covering the US, resolving the NH3 emissions hourly instead monthly reduced the positive model bias from approximately 80 % to 60 % of the observed yearly mean nitrate concentration. This suggests that some of the commonly reported overestimation of aerosol nitrate over the US may be related to unresolved temporal variability in the NH3 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Domain size can have significant impact on regional modeling results, but few studies examined the sensitivities of simulated aerosol impact to regional domain size. This study investigates the regional modeling sensitivities of aerosol impact on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) to domain size. The simulations with two different domain sizes demonstrate consistently that aerosols induce the cooling of the lower troposphere that leads to the anticyclone circulation anomalies and thus the weakening of EASM moisture transport. The aerosol-induced adjustment of monsoonal circulation results in an alternate increase and decrease pattern of precipitation over China. Domain size has a great influence on the simulated meteorological fields. For example, the simulation with larger domain size produces weaker EASM circulation, which also affects aerosol distributions significantly. This leads to the difference of simulated strength and area extent of aerosol-induced changes of lower-tropospheric temperature and pressure, which further results in different distributions of circulation and precipitation anomalies over China. For example, over southeastern China, aerosols induce the increase (decrease) of precipitation from the smaller-domain (larger-domain) simulation. Different domain sizes consistently simulate an aerosol-induced increase in precipitation around 30 ∘ N over eastern China. This study highlights the important influence of domain size on regional modeling results of aerosol impact on circulation and precipitation, which may not be limited to East Asia. More generally, this study also implies that proper modeling of meteorological fields with appropriate domain size is one of the keys to simulating robust aerosol climatic impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An advanced modeling system with a “one-atmosphere” perspective, Models-3/Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system, driven by MM5/NCEP reanalysis data as the meteorology, and GEOS-Chem outputs as boundary values was applied to simulate the O3, and other gaseous pollutants (SO2 and NO2) evolution among other atmospheric chemicals for July 2001. Comparisons had been made with other models in the MICS-II exercise for the same period. Statistics of both monthly and daily means show that the model skill is very good in reproducing O3 and SO2 with small to moderate RMSE. The model species capture the day-to-day and spatial variability of the observations. The same O3 model concentrations that overpredict most of the EANET observations in the MICS-II study may have underpredicted ones from monitoring networks in Beijing area that is not included in this paper. Vertical O3 profiles at 4 ozonesonde sites are well predicted in July 2001. In fact, our model is among the best of those MICS-II models within the 2-km surface layer. The meteorology near surface and lower troposphere is well reproduced. Compared to SO2 and O3, the NO2 gas concentrations are simulated less well, but the correlation coefficient is still significant. The choice of reanalysis meteorological fields and different boundary conditions generated by different global models may result in diverse spatial patterns exhibited by MICS-II models and ours. Our spatial distributions of O3 shows a high concentration patch covering Beijing, a moderate to high pattern across Korea and Japan Sea, and a low but extensive pattern enclosing southern China, Taiwan, and East Sea. Extension of the pattern to southern China coincides with the existence of pollution problems in Guangdong and Taiwan, but overprediction of O3 over the region deserves further improvement by various factors. One of them can be the grid resolution to resolve the complex orography in or close to the ocean. Another factor can be the refinement of local land use data that changes the micro-meteorology in favor of more air pollution events. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In the framework of the model intercomparison study—Asia Phase II (MICS2), where eight models are compared over East Asia, this paper studies the influence of different parameterizations used in the aerosol module on the aerosol concentrations of sulfate and nitrate in . An intracomparison of aerosol concentrations is done for March 2001 using different configurations of the aerosol module of one of the model used for the intercomparison. Single modifications of a reference setup for model configurations are performed and compared to a reference case. These modifications concern the size distribution, i.e. the number of sections, and physical processes, i.e. coagulation, condensation/evaporation, cloud chemistry, heterogeneous reactions and sea-salt emissions. Comparing monthly averaged concentrations at different stations, the importance of each parameterization is first assessed. It is found that sulfate concentrations are little sensitive to sea-salt emissions and to whether condensation is computed dynamically or by assuming thermodynamic equilibrium. Nitrate concentrations are little sensitive to cloud chemistry. However, a very high sensitivity to heterogeneous reactions is observed. Thereafter, the variability of the aerosol concentrations to the use of different chemistry transport models (CTMs) and the variability to the use of different parameterizations in the aerosol module are compared. For sulfate, the variability to the use of different parameterizations in the aerosol module is lower than the variability to the use of different CTMs. However, for nitrate, for monthly averaged concentrations averaged over four stations, these two variabilities have the same order of magnitude. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Across the Miocene–Pliocene boundary (MPB; 5.3 million years ago, Ma), late Miocene cooling gave way to the early-to-middle Pliocene Warm Period. This transition, across which atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased to levels similar to present, holds potential for deciphering regional climate responses in Asia—currently home to more than half of the world's population— to global climate change. Here we find that CO2-induced MPB warming both increased summer monsoon moisture transport over East Asia, and enhanced aridification over large parts of Central Asia by increasing evaporation, based on integration of our ~1–2-thousand-year (kyr) resolution summer monsoon records from the Chinese Loess Plateau aeolian red clay with existing terrestrial records, land-sea correlations, and climate model simulations. Our results offer palaeoclimate-based support for 'wet-gets-wetter and dry-gets-drier' projections of future regional hydroclimate responses to sustained anthropogenic forcing. Moreover, our high-resolution monsoon records reveal a dynamic response to eccentricity modulation of solar insolation, with predominant 405-kyr and ~100-kyr periodicities between 8.1 and 3.4 Ma. Global warming drove 'wet gets wetter and dry gets drier' climate shifts in Asia ~5.3 million years ago with monsoon pacing by ~400,000 and ~ 100,000 year cycles. This could be a template for future Asian climate response to anthropogenic warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates the precipitation over East Asia simulated by the variable resolution CAM‐MPAS featuring the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) atmospheric dynamical core coupled with the physics parameterizations of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 5.4. Two CAM‐MPAS experiments, one with a global quasi‐uniform resolution mesh of 120 km (MPAS‐UR) and the other with a variable resolution mesh of 30–120 km refined over East Asia (MPAS‐VR), are conducted from 1989 to 2005 following the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project protocol. Two regional climate model simulations at ∼25 km resolution from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment East Asia second plan are also analyzed for comparison. Results show that CAM‐MPAS performs better than the selected regional models in simulating the precipitation climatology over East Asia. Compared with MPAS‐UR, MPAS‐VR with refinement over East Asia better simulates the precipitation over and around the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the upper‐level circulation, the precipitation frequency and intensity in various regions of China, and the interannual precipitation pattern associated with the East Asian summer monsoon. Both decreased grid spacing and the use of finer‐scale terrain information contribute to the improvements in MPAS‐VR relative to MPAS‐UR. However, decreased grid spacing is more essential for simulating the precipitation magnitude over TP and the location of peak precipitation south of TP, likely due to the better resolved physical and dynamical processes associated with orographic precipitation. The 30–120 km CAM‐MPAS model is shown to be a promising tool for precipitation simulation over East Asia. Plain Language Summary: Precipitation and associated cloud and radiation processes can affect the energy budgets and water supply over land and thus the livelihoods of billions of people over East Asia. However, traditional low‐resolution global climate models still have difficulty in realistically simulating the mean‐state and variability of precipitation over East Asia, partly due to their insufficient resolution to resolve the complex terrain and associated synoptic‐scale systems. In this work, we perform model experiments using the Community Atmosphere Model coupled with the atmospheric dynamical core from the Model for Prediction Across Scales with a variable resolution mesh to assess the impact of regional refinement on the precipitation simulation over East Asia. Experiment with higher resolution (30 vs. 120 km) over East Asia better simulates the total precipitation amount over and around the Tibetan Plateau (TP), as well as precipitation frequency, intensity, and interannual variability associated with the East Asian summer monsoon. The finer grid spacing is found to contribute more to the improvements in areas adjacent to TP than the use of finer terrain information, likely due to better resolved physical and dynamical processes associated with orographic precipitation. Key Points: The precipitation climatology over East Asia can be reasonably reproduced by a global climate model CAM‐MPASRegional refinement over East Asia improves the precipitation simulation over East Asia in various aspectsFiner grid spacing is more essential for precipitation simulation around large‐scale terrain than using finer‐scale terrain information [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A global model formulation for unified weather‐climate forecast is evaluated, with emphasis on the climate simulations at typical hydrostatic resolutions. The internal sensitivity is explored by considering different dynamical configurations (resolution, solver type, transport scheme). After a basic assessment of the global mean climate, a detailed analysis of precipitation characteristics is extended to East Asia. The model shows a reasonable mean state, seasonal variation, frequency–intensity structure, and diurnal phase time. The artificial rainfall around the steep slopes of the Tibetan Plateau can be improved through choices in the dynamical configuration. The regional features characterized by "afternoon versus nocturnal‐to‐early‐morning peaks" are properly distinguished. The hourly climatic features are comparable to super‐parameterized CAM5. Different dynamical configurations demonstrate unique sensitivities related to underling physical mechanisms, which are studied from the perspective of the diurnal cycle for three representative regions. Over South China, the higher‐resolution models decrease the weak‐precipitation while increase intense rainfall, thus reducing the dry biases. This is contributed by enhanced grid and sub‐grid scale motions associated with daytime convection progression. Over central western China, the variable‐resolution model better simulates the eastward propagating episodes characterized by a transition from convective to stratiform rainfall along the eastern slope of the Plateau. This reduces the positive biases at the high topography of the Plateau and alleviates the negative biases at the lower foot. Over central eastern China, the model replicates the dominant role of large‐scale governing factors in regulating the early morning rainfall peaks, and produces stratiform heating patterns. Plain Language Summary: We examine the statistical simulation of a model developed within the Global‐to‐Regional Integrated forecast SysTem, using Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project style integration. This is among an effort in exploring a unified system for weather and climate modeling. Because of the evolutionary nature of model development, the absolute model performance can change. Thus, special attention is paid to the model sensitivity related to dynamical configurations, which helps to gain understanding that can support continuous research and development. Precipitation is one of the most important variables in a general circulation model as it encapsulates the synergistic effects of resolvable and non‐resolvable processes, the hydrological cycle, and radiative balance. Simulating precipitation faces the challenges in representing the moist physics and its interaction with dynamics. We use precipitation as performance metrics for a better understanding of the model behavior, focusing on a unique region–East Asia. The diurnal cycle is given particular emphasis because it reveals the direct physical mechanism of precipitation, and can help to disentangle the interactions between model dynamics and physics. We show that the models produce hourly rainfall features that are comparable to a global multiscale modeling framework that has two interactive dynamical solvers, and support some beneficial sensitivity. Key Points: To evaluate a model formulation for unified weather‐climate forecast using the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project‐style experimentTo understand model precipitation characteristics over East Asia by analyzing hourly scale apparent sources/sinks and grid‐scale tendenciesTo understand model sensitivity related to dynamical configurations, including grid resolution, moisture transport scheme and solver type [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dust emission parameterization in the Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model version 2 (CAS‐ESM2) is described with emphasis on the implementation process and simulations of global dust cycle and East Asia dust event statistics. The parameterization is based on the scheme of Shao (2004; http://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD004372) which considers two major dust emission mechanisms, namely, saltation bombardment and aggregation disintegration. Shao (2004; http://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD004372) scheme was well tested against field observations and has been widely used in regional dust modeling. Here this scheme is implemented into a global climate model for the first time and thus provides an independent solution for simulating global dust emissions. With this scheme, CAS‐ESM2 reasonably simulates the main dust emission regions in the Earth and reproduces the observations of dust deposition flux and surface dust concentrations at most stations. Compared to the synoptic records of dust events, the model also captures the general patterns and seasonal variations of dust activities in East Asia. However, the model underestimates the frequency of strong dust events (instantaneous surface dust concentrations >1,000 μg m−3) due to the weaker surface winds simulated by the model. The model tends to simulate much weaker and longer‐lasting dust events in Eastern Sources (35–49°N, 94–126.5°E) of northern China, suggesting the weaker and slower‐moving synoptic weather systems associated with dust events in the model. Overall CAS‐ESM2 performs well in simulating the key aspects of global dust distribution and East Asian dust events, yet some biases remain to be improved. Plain Language Summary: Dust emitted from the bare soil is an important aerosol type, and dust cycle links the various components of Earth System including atmosphere, land, and oceans. Therefore, dust emission is an essential part of Earth system. In this study, we develop a dust emission module for Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model version 2 (CAS‐ESM2) to simulate the global dust emission. The module incorporates advanced mechanisms of dust emission physics. The results show that with this module, CAS‐ESM2 reproduces well the global distribution of dust aerosol. We also evaluate the model's ability in simulating the individual dust events in terms of dust event frequency, intensity, and duration. We find that the model can reproduce the key regions of dust emission and the highest frequency of dust event in spring in East Asia. However, because the model underestimates surface wind speeds, it simulates weaker and longer‐lasting dust events. Overall CAS‐ESM2 provides a new and promising solution to simulate global dust emission, although there are still some biases for further improvements. Key Points: Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model version 2 (CAS‐ESM2) with a physically based dust emission scheme provides a new and promising solution to simulate global dust emissionsCAS‐ESM2 captures the main global dust emission regions and reproduces observed dust depositions and surface dust concentrationsThe weaker dust events are compensated by overestimated dust event frequency and duration to produce reasonable means in East Asia [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on 10 pairs of atmospheric general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project, we find that high‐resolution models (HRMs, ∼50 km) perform better than low‐resolution models (LRMs, ∼100 km) in simulating the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rain belt. We attribute the increased rainfall to enhanced vertical advection of water vapor in the HRMs which is mainly contributed by enhanced vertical motion. Based on moist static energy analyses, the stronger vertical motion in the HRMSs is mainly balanced by enhanced net energy flux into the atmosphere column in the "Meiyu‐Baiu" (MB) region due to the increase of air‐sea turbulent latent heat fluxes along the Kuroshio and sensible heat fluxes over land. The increased net energy flux in the HRMs drives stronger ascending motion, resulting in more realistic rainfall in the MB region. Higher saturated specific humidity determined by finer sea surface temperature, less near‐surface specific humidity along the Kuroshio, and stronger near‐surface winds on western side of the western North Pacific Subtropical High strengthened by the enhanced pressure gradient together contribute to higher ventilation efficiencies and enhanced ocean forcing along the Kuroshio, leading to more turbulent latent heat fluxes in the HRMs. Additionally, drier and less cloudy atmosphere in the HRMs result in more downward shortwave radiation heating over the land, which partly contributes to the increased sensible heat flux. This understanding of the sensitivity of simulated MB to model resolution has implications for precipitation simulation and prediction over East Asia. Plain Language Summary: Improving the Meiyu‐Baiu simulation is a long‐term challenge for the climate‐modeling community. One way to achieve such improvement is to develop high‐resolution global climate models, since there are many mesoscale systems embedded in the large‐scale monsoon circulation that need small grid spacing to be resolved. By analyzing ten pairs of models, we show that the high‐resolution models (HRMs) generally show better performance in Meiyu‐Baiu simulations than the low‐resolution models (LRMs), with a reduction in bias of 31%. The increased air‐sea latent heat flux in the HRMs is a dominant energy source driving increased Meiyu‐Baiu rainfall. Stronger near‐surface winds and drier air in the HRMs favor increased evaporation, resulting in a more turbulent latent heat flux. Hence, we explain the processes that can help improve Meiyu‐Baiu simulation when improving the horizontal resolution from ∼100 to ∼50 km in General climate models. Key Points: High‐resolution models (∼50 km) perform better than low‐resolution models (∼100 km) in simulating Meiyu‐BaiuThis added value is mainly attributed to the enhanced air‐sea turbulent latent heat fluxes along KuroshioStronger near‐surface wind and drier air in high‐resolution model favor the more turbulent latent heat fluxes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the WRF-GC model v2.0, an online two-way coupling of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model (v3.9.1.1) and the GEOS-Chem model (v12.7.2). WRF-GC v2.0 is built on the modular framework of WRF-GC v1.0 and further includes aerosol–radiation interaction (ARI) and aerosol–cloud interaction (ACI) based on bulk aerosol mass and composition, as well as the capability to nest multiple domains for high-resolution simulations. WRF-GC v2.0 is the first implementation of the GEOS-Chem model in an open-source dynamic model with chemical feedbacks to meteorology. In WRF-GC, meteorological and chemical calculations are performed on the exact same 3-D grid system; grid-scale advection of meteorological variables and chemical species uses the same transport scheme and time steps to ensure mass conservation. Prescribed size distributions are applied to the aerosol types simulated by GEOS-Chem to diagnose aerosol optical properties and activated cloud droplet numbers; the results are passed to the WRF model for radiative and cloud microphysics calculations. WRF-GC is computationally efficient and scalable to massively parallel architectures. We use WRF-GC v2.0 to conduct sensitivity simulations with different combinations of ARI and ACI over China during January 2015 and July 2016. Our sensitivity simulations show that including ARI and ACI improves the model's performance in simulating regional meteorology and air quality. WRF-GC generally reproduces the magnitudes and spatial variability of observed aerosol and cloud properties and surface meteorological variables over East Asia during January 2015 and July 2016, although WRF-GC consistently shows a low bias against observed aerosol optical depths over China. WRF-GC simulations including both ARI and ACI reproduce the observed surface concentrations of PM 2.5 in January 2015 (normalized mean bias of - 9.3 %, spatial correlation r of 0.77) and afternoon ozone in July 2016 (normalized mean bias of 25.6 %, spatial correlation r of 0.56) over eastern China. WRF-GC v2.0 is open source and freely available from http://wrf.geos-chem.org (last access: 20 June 2021). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, we projected future drought risks over East Asia from the perspective of evapotranspiration (ET) deficit using the new climate projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). For the regional drought projections, we employed a state‐of‐the‐art complementary relationship (CR) method to estimate ET and atmospheric evaporative demand (Ep) that quantify the combined impact of water deficiency and vapor pressure deficit stress. The performance of the CR method was validated using the reanalysis climate data and independent water‐balance ET estimates. The same CR method was again applied to hindcasts and projections of seven global climate models (GCM) in the CMIP6 archive. Results showed that the CR ET estimates and the GCM‐driven ET products were both able to approximately close the basin‐scale water balance and tightly correlated with each other. The application with the CMIP6 GCM hindcasts provided the same indication that the CR ET and the GCM‐driven ET are consistent. The drought assessments using the ET deficit (ET − Ep) from the CMIP6 projections implicates that future drought risks over East Asia would be much higher than indicated by precipitation or soil moisture projections. Rising trends of Ep are expected to outpace those of ET even under the medium‐level greenhouse gas emission scenario. Our new drought projections suggest that Ep amplified by soil water deficiency could raise agricultural and wildfire risks substantially by the end of the 21st century. Plain Language Summary: In this work, drought risks over East Asia were assessed using new climate projections under a medium and a strong level of greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The future drought risks were quantified by comparing plants' water consumption against atmospheric water demand from 1980 to the end of the 21st century. The assessments showed that the atmospheric water demand would increasingly surpass the plant's water consumption in most of East Asia, even though the warming atmosphere would increase precipitation and thus the water consumption. The drying signal was indicated by responses of the lower atmosphere to soil moisture conditions with no synthesis of complex land‐surface processes. This study highlights that the rising atmospheric water demand would pose a stress independent of and in addition to soil water deficiency, and drive increasing agricultural and wildfire risks. Key Points: The complementary evaporation principle can produce reliable evapotranspiration (ET) estimates consistent with land surface modelsET deficits are expected to rise steadily through the 21st century across East Asia even under the medium‐level warming scenarioFuture drought risks assessed with ET deficits are far higher than indications from precipitation‐dependent metrics [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transport of dust aerosol in East Asia is affected by the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and westerly circulation both for modern and geological periods. There are obvious seasonal changes in the intensity and range of EAWM and westerly jet; however, their impacts and relative contributions to East Asian dust transmission are still unclear. In this study, we use Regional Climate Model 4 (RegCM4) to simulate the changes in the East Asian dust cycle under present conditions, assessing the effects of EAWM and westerly jet on dust transport. The results show that the dust at the upper level is mainly transported by the westerly circulation, while that of the lower layer is mainly transported by the EAWM. In March, the westerly jet is located on the south side of the Tibet Plateau, and the high-level dust aerosol is transmitted eastward to the northern Pacific. Low-level dust is transmitted to the southeastern China with the influence of EAWM. With the northward shift of the westerly jet, the control range of the westerly winds increases in May and their correlations are weakened. In contrary, the impact of EAWM on the lower layer dust is enhanced. Due to the strengthened interaction between the westerly winds and the EAWM, they can both affect the middle-level dust transmission. The effect of EAWM is sensitive to the dust particle sizes. Under the action of EAWM, fine-grained dust is transmitted far away, while coarse-grained dust is limited to the vicinity of the source area. Once the dust is carried to the westerly layer, the influence of westerly winds on the transmission of different particle sizes dust is similar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, future changes in the rainy season in East Asia are projected based on massive ensemble simulations of about 100 members with a 60-km mesh global atmospheric model (the 60-km model hereinafter) called the "Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)". For the present-climate, historical observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed to the 60-km model. In the future, 4°C warmer climate relative to the preindustrial climate, six different SST distributions projected by Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are given to the 60-km model. In the future, summer precipitation will generally increase in most regions of East Asia, but will decrease over western Japan. Precipitation decreases in June around 30 - 35°N over China, Korea and Japan. The Probability Density Function directly was derived from the massive ensemble simulations at each grid point in June and revealed that the most intense precipitation increase will occur in some regions where moderate precipitation decreases will take place in terms of the simple ensemble average. In western Japan, the onset of rainy season will delay and the retreat will occur earlier, resulting in a shorter rainy season. The decrease of precipitation in June over western Japan may be attributed to the counter-effect of the convergence of moisture to the south of Japan, originating in the southward shift of the western North Pacific subtropical high. The projected decrease in June precipitation over western Japan is confirmed to be robust, regardless of model differences in horizontal resolution, convection schemes, and with/without air-sea interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies detected significant negative correlations between the nonuniform land surface warming and the decadal weakened activities of the summer extratropical cyclones (ECs) over East Asia and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) after the early 1990s. Here such relationships are further examined and the possible mechanisms are explored via numerical sensitivity experiments with a regional climate model (RegCM4.5). The positive/negative sensible heat flux (SH) anomalies were added as a forcing to a key region near 50°N of East Asia in RegCM4.5 to simulate the observed ground surface temperature (GST) anomalies. The model results suggest that the nonuniform land surface warming over the Lake Baikal area (50°–60°N, 90°–120°E) can indeed cause the weakening of the extratropical cyclogenesis and affect the decadal weakening of the EASM. Warm (cold) GST forcing over the key GST region can lead to decreasing (increasing) atmospheric baroclinicity and related energy conversion of the EC activity over the key EC region (40°–50°N, 90°–120°E), resulting in an evidently weakening (enhancing) of the ECs over East Asia. Meanwhile, precipitation shows a dipole pattern with significantly suppressed (enhanced) precipitation in northern and northeastern China, and slightly enhanced (suppressed) rainfall south of 40°N of East Asia, mainly over the East China Sea. Lake Baikal and its adjacent areas are occupied by a strong anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation while the southeast coastal areas of China have a relatively weak cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation accompanied with an anomalous northeasterly (southwesterly) wind to the southeast of the anticyclonic circulation, which is opposite to (coincident with) the atmospheric circulation anomalies that are associated with the second mode of the EASM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global coupled chemistry–climate models underestimate carbon monoxide (CO) in the Northern Hemisphere, exhibiting a pervasive negative bias against measurements peaking in late winter and early spring. While this bias has been commonly attributed to underestimation of direct anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions, chemical production and loss via OH reaction from emissions of anthropogenic and biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) play an important role. Here we investigate the reasons for this underestimation using aircraft measurements taken in May and June 2016 from the Korea–United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) experiment in South Korea and the Air Chemistry Research in Asia (ARIAs) in the North China Plain (NCP). For reference, multispectral CO retrievals (V8J) from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) are jointly assimilated with meteorological observations using an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) within the global Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry (CAM-Chem) and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). With regard to KORUS-AQ data, CO is underestimated by 42 % in the control run and by 12 % with the MOPITT assimilation run. The inversion suggests an underestimation of anthropogenic CO sources in many regions, by up to 80 % for northern China, with large increments over the Liaoning Province and the North China Plain (NCP). Yet, an often-overlooked aspect of these inversions is that correcting the underestimation in anthropogenic CO emissions also improves the comparison with observational O 3 datasets and observationally constrained box model simulations of OH and HO 2. Running a CAM-Chem simulation with the updated emissions of anthropogenic CO reduces the bias by 29 % for CO, 18 % for ozone, 11 % for HO 2 , and 27 % for OH. Longer-lived anthropogenic VOCs whose model errors are correlated with CO are also improved, while short-lived VOCs, including formaldehyde, are difficult to constrain solely by assimilating satellite retrievals of CO. During an anticyclonic episode, better simulation of O 3 , with an average underestimation of 5.5 ppbv, and a reduction in the bias of surface formaldehyde and oxygenated VOCs can be achieved by separately increasing by a factor of 2 the modeled biogenic emissions for the plant functional types found in Korea. Results also suggest that controlling VOC and CO emissions, in addition to widespread NO x controls, can improve ozone pollution over East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Taklamakan desert is an important dust source for the global atmospheric dust budget and a cause of the dust weather in East Asia. The characterization of Taklamakan dust in the source region is still very limited. To fill this gap, the DAO (dust aerosol observation) was conducted in April 2019 in Kashi, China. The Kashi site is about 150 km from the western rim of the Taklamakan desert and is strongly impacted by desert dust aerosols, especially in spring time, i.e., April and May. According to sun–sky photometer measurements, the aerosol optical depth (at 500 nm) varied in the range of 0.07–4.70, and the Ångström exponent (between 440 and 870 nm) in the range of 0.0–0.8 in April 2019. In this study, we provide the first profiling of the 2α+3β+3δ parameters of Taklamakan dust based on a multiwavelength Mie–Raman polarization lidar. For Taklamakan dust, the Ångström exponent related to the extinction coefficient (EAE, between 355 and 532 nm) is about 0.01 ± 0.30, and the lidar ratio is found to be 45 ± 7 sr (51 ± 8–56 ± 8 sr) at 532 (355) nm. The particle linear depolarization ratios (PLDRs) are about 0.28–0.32 ± 0.07 at 355 nm, 0.36 ± 0.05 at 532 nm and 0.31 ± 0.05 at 1064 nm. Both lidar ratios and depolarization ratios are higher than the typical values of Central Asian dust in the literature. The difference is probably linked to the fact that observations in the DAO campaign were collected close to the dust source; therefore, there is a large fraction of coarse-mode and giant particles (radius >20 µ m) in the Taklamakan dust. Apart from dust, fine particles coming from local anthropogenic emissions and long-range transported aerosols are also non-negligible aerosol components. The signatures of pollution emerge when dust concentration decreases. The polluted dust (defined by PLDR 532≤0.30 and EAE 355-532≥0.20) is featured with reduced PLDRs and enhanced EAE 355-532 compared to Taklamakan dust. The mean PLDRs of polluted dust generally distributed in the range of 0.20–0.30. Due to the complexity of the nature of the involved pollutants and their mixing state with dust, the lidar ratios exhibit larger variabilities compared to those of dust. The study provides the first reference of novel characteristics of Taklamakan dust measured by Mie–Raman polarization lidar. The data could contribute to complementing the dust model and improving the accuracy of climate modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Copyright of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study compares the performance of 12 regional chemical transport models (CTMs) from the third phase of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia III) on simulating the particulate matter (PM) over East Asia (EA) in 2010. The participating models include the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ; v4.7.1 and v5.0.2), the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System coupled with CMAQ (RAMS-CMAQ; v4.7.1 and v5.0.2), the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem; v3.6.1 and v3.7.1), Goddard Earth Observing System coupled with chemistry (GEOS-Chem), a non-hydrostatic model coupled with chemistry (NHM-Chem), the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS) and the NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF). This study investigates three model processes as the possible reasons for different model performances on PM. (1) Models perform very differently in the gas–particle conversion of sulfur (S) and oxidized nitrogen (N). The model differences in sulfur oxidation ratio (50 %) are of the same magnitude as that in SO42- concentrations. The gas–particle conversion is one of the main reasons for different model performances on fine mode PM. (2) Models without dust emission modules can perform well on PM 10 at non-dust-affected sites but largely underestimate (up to 50 %) the PM 10 concentrations at dust sites. The implementation of dust emission modules in the models has largely improved the model accuracies at dust sites (reduce model bias to -20 %). However, both the magnitude and distribution of dust pollution are not fully captured. (3) The amounts of modeled depositions vary among models by 75 %, 39 %, 21 % and 38 % for S wet, S dry, N wet and N dry depositions, respectively. Large inter-model differences are found in the washout ratios of wet deposition (at most 170 % in India) and dry deposition velocities (generally 0.3–2 cm s -1 differences over inland regions). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]