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In many parts of the world, conditions for small scale agriculture are worsening, creating challenges in achieving consistent yields. The use of automated decision support tools, such as Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs), can assist producers to respond to these factors. This paper describes a decision support system developed to assist farmers on the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, who grow both rice and shrimp crops in the same pond, based on an existing BBN. The BBN was previously developed in collaboration with local farmers and extension officers to represent their collective perceptions and understanding of their farming system and the risks to production that they face. This BBN can be used to provide insight into the probable consequences of farming decisions, given prevailing environmental conditions, however, it does not provide direct guidance on the optimal decision given those decisions. In this paper, the BBN is analysed using a novel, temporally-inspired data mining approach to systematically determine the agricultural decisions that farmers perceive as optimal at distinct periods in the growing and harvesting cycle, given the prevailing agricultural conditions. Using a novel form of data mining that combines with visual analytics, the results of this analysis allow the farmer to input the environmental conditions in a given growing period. They then receive recommendations that represent the collective view of the expert knowledge encoded in the BBN allowing them to maximise the probability of successful crops. Encoding the results of the data mining/inspection approach into the mobile Decision Support System helps farmers access explicit recommendations from the collective local farming community as to the optimal farming decisions, given the prevailing environmental conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting how climate change is hkely to interact with myriad other Stressors that threaten species of conservation concern is an essential challenge in aquatic ecosystems. This study provides a framework to accomplish this task in salmon-bearing streams of the northwestern United States, where land-use-related reductions in riparian shading have caused changes in stream thermal regimes, and additional warming from projected climate change may result in significant losses of coldwater fish habitat over the next century. Predatory, nonnative smallmouth bass have also been introduced into many northwestern streams, and their range is likely to expand as streams warm, presenting an additional challenge to the persistence of threatened Pacific salmon. The goal of this work was to forecast the interactive effects of climate change, riparian management, and nonnative species on stream-rearing salmon and to evaluate the capacity of restoration to mitigate these effects. We intersected downscaled global climate forecasts with a local-scale water temperature model to predict mid- and end-of-century temperatures in streams in the Columbia River basin. We compared one stream that is thermally impaired due to the loss of riparian vegetation and another that is cooler and has a largely intact riparian corridor. Using the forecasted stream temperatures in conjunction with fish-habitat models, we predicted how stream-rearing chinook salmon and bass distributions would change as each stream warmed. In the highly modified stream, endof- century warming may cause near total loss of chinook salmon-rearing habitat and a complete invasion of the upper watershed by bass. In the less modified stream, bass were thermally restricted from the upstream-most areas. In both systems, temperature increases resulted in higher predicted spatial overlap between stream-rearing chinook salmon and potentially predatory bass in the early summer (two- to fourfold increase) and greater abundance of bass. We found that riparian restoration could prevent the extirpation of chinook salmon from the more altered stream and could also restrict bass from occupying the upper 31 km of salmon-rearing habitat. The proposed methodology and model predictions are critical for prioritizing climate-change adaptation strategies before salmonids are exposed to both warmer water and greater prédation risk by nonnative species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the determinants of species' distributions and abundances is a central theme in ecology. The development of statistical models to achieve this has a long history and the notion that the model should closely reflect underlying scientific understanding has encouraged ecologists to adopt complex statistical methods as they arise. In this paper we describe a Bayesian hierarchical model that reflects a conceptual ecological model of multi-scaled environmental determinants of riverine fish species' distributions and abundances. We illustrate this with distribution and abundance data of a small-bodied fish species, the Empire gudgeon Hypseleotris galii, in the Mary and Albert Rivers, Queensland, Australia. Specifically, the model sought to address; 1) the extent that landscape-scale abiotic variables can explain the species' distribution compared to local-scale variables, 2) how local-scale abiotic variables can explain species' abundances, and 3) how are these local-scale relationships mediated by landscape-scale variables. Overall, the model accounted for around 60% of variation in the distribution and abundance of H. galii. The findings show that the landscape-scale variables explain much of the distribution of the species; however, there was considerable improvement in estimating the species' distribution with the addition of local-scale variables. There were many strong relationships between abundance and local-scale abiotic variables; however, several of these relationships were mediated by some of the landscape-scale variables. The extent of spatial autocorrelation in the data was relatively low compared to the distances among sampling reaches. Our findings exemplify that Bayesian statistical modelling provides a robust framework for statistical modelling that reflects our ecological understanding. This allows ecologists to address a range of ecological questions with a single unified probability model rather than a series of disconnected analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]