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Forest based power plants are alternatives in the diversification of domestic energy supply in Brazil, given the growing demand for electricity in recent decades. Evidences of space-time clusters contribute to the understanding of regional development associated with correlated activity. Therefore, this paper analyzed the space-time conglomerates for Brazilian forest-based power plants, from 2000 to 2019. The data used were from the Generation Information System of the National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL)-SIGA. It detected the existence of clusters by means of scan statistics via space-time permutation, considering the high level of conglomeration. The results show the Center-South region of Brazil with the highest concentration of conglomerates, with black liquor and forest residues being the most used energy resources. The clusters with the highest installed power were in the early 2010s, with the black liquor plants. The regions with the formation of fast-growing forest plantations promoted the existence of conglomerates associated with the pulp and paper and steel industry complexes. It is concluded that there was a conglomeration of forest power plants in the central-south region of Brazil, in which they help in decision-making and guidance of public policies for forestry projects for energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to its low share of energy-related emissions, energy systems models have overlooked the implications of technological transition in the agricultural sector and its interaction in the wider energy system. This paper explores the role of agriculture intensification by using a novel agricultural-based energy systems model. The aim is to explore the future role of Brazil's agriculture and its dynamics with other energy sectors under two carbon constraint scenarios. The main focus has been to study resource competition between sugarcane and natural gas at a country level. Results show that in order to meet the future food and bioenergy demand, the agricultural sector would start intensifying by 2030, improving productivity at the expense of higher energy demand, however, land-related emissions would be minimised due to freed-up pasture land and reduction in deforestation rates. Additionally, the development of balanced bioenergy and natural gas markets may help limit the sugarcane expansion rates, preserving up to 12.6 million hectares of forest land, with significant emissions benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper offers a critical look at how energy security-, food and agriculture-, and climate change-oriented international organizations frame biomass energy production in developing countries, in particular, ethanol production in Brazil. Using the world-economy system as a theoretical lens, the paper raises a concern as to whether the way these global institutions frame bioenergy's role in developing regions manifests energy and ecological inequalities between the core and the periphery, as well as creates internal contradictions that perpetuate unequal exchange embedded in the system. Simultaneously, these organizations frame Brazil as a semi-peripheral state that, while successful in finding a niche concurring with the core's demand for cheap energy and cost-effective decarbonization strategies, is not necessarily a suitable role model for the periphery's socio–economic development. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In Northeast Brazil, the use of biomass for energy generation is settled on traditional productive arrangements, such as a sugarcane production system in the humid Atlantic coastal area and firewood extraction from native tropical dry forests in the west. In parallel, substantial amounts of other biomass sources, such as residues from agricultural or urban processes, are still little used or wholly wasted, fudging the opportunity to generate new value chains based on these biomass sources. We hypothesize that using these non-traditional biomass sources to produce biofuels would significantly increase the regional bioenergy supply. In this context, this article discusses the potential for the production and use of biofuels and bioenergy in Northeast Brazil and its effects on regional development, which may be useful for both private actors and policymakers in the energy sector. The use of biomass sources for energy in the region is significant, reaching approximately 8.8 million tons of oil equivalent (toe) per year, emphasizing the already consolidated production of sugarcane and its derivatives. The use of all biomass resources in the Northeast region could supply around 4% of the Brazilian national electrical energy demand, with an environmental footprint of 0.055 tCO2eq per toe, which would contribute to reducing emissions from the Brazilian energy matrix generation. Regarding the spatial distribution of biomass sources, sugarcane prevails on the coast, firewood and livestock manure in the dryland area towards the west, and municipal solid waste is distributed throughout the region within urban areas. Different from what we expected, the potential energy recovery from municipal waste and animal manure would increase by only 17% the current bioenergy supply. In the future, since the majority of the region presents a semi-arid climate with limited rainfall, to increase the use of biomass as an energy source, there is a need to increase the supply of biomass sources with high efficiency in water use and good yields in drylands. For this, the cultivation and use of cacti and agave, for example, could contribute to making biorefineries viable in the region. Above all, public policies for harnessing bioenergy in NE Brazil must seek opportunities associated with the carbon/decarbonization economy, with studies being needed to assess the technical, economic, social, and environmental viability of future productive arrangements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the general acceptance that greenhouse gases from biomass can provide a low carbon energy source, bioenergy pathways are being increasingly included in many countries renewable energy and emission reduction strategies. As a result demand for biomass is rising fast with several regions forecast to encounter major resource stresses over the coming decades. The bioenergy strategies of many countries rely heavily on future imported resource to balance their bioenergy resource demands. Applying a Biomass Resource Model to evaluate and forecast the types and potential availability of different categories of biomass resources from Brazil – a case study of a country with extensive biomass resources and export potential. This research evaluates Brazil's biomass potential to 2030, and analyses the levels of resource that may be available to export. The research finds that Brazil has extensive biomass resources that are potentially sufficient to both balance Brazilian total primary energy demand by 2030 and for Brazil to increasingly become a major exporter of resource for energy end uses. The paper also discusses the potential impact for global biomass trade, if countries such as Brazil were to adopt energy strategies that resulted in greater domestic use of their available biomass. The research's analysis shows that if the Brazilian Government were to adopt strategies to utilise a greater proportion of its resource for domestic energy, Brazil could export up to >25.8% less biomass by 2030 compared to forecast export levels based on Brazil's current policy framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bioenergy could play a major role in decarbonizing energy systems in the context of the Paris Agreement. Large‐scale bioenergy deployment could be related to sustainability issues and requires major infrastructure investments. It, therefore, needs to be studied carefully. The Bioenergy and Land Optimization Spatially Explicit Model (BLOEM) presented here allows for assessing different bioenergy pathways while encompassing various dimensions that influence their optimal deployment. In this study, BLOEM was applied to the Brazilian context by coupling it with the Brazilian Land Use and Energy Systems (BLUES) model. This allowed investigating the most cost‐effective ways of attending future bioenergy supply projections and studying the role of recovered degraded pasture lands in improving land availability in a sustainable and competitive manner. The results show optimizing for limiting deforestation and minimizing logistics costs results in different outcomes. It also indicates that recovering degraded pasture lands is attractive from both logistics and climate perspectives. The systemic approach of BLOEM provides spatial results, highlighting the trade‐offs between crop allocation, land use and the logistics dynamics between production, conversion, and demand, providing valuable insights for regional and national climate policy design. This makes it a useful tool for mapping sustainable bioenergy value chain pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intensive cropland expansion for an increasing population has driven soil degradation worldwide. Modeling how agroecosystems respond to variations in soil attributes, relief and crop management dynamics can guide soil conservation. This research presents a new approach to evaluate soil loss by water erosion in cropland using the RUSLE model and Synthetic Soil Image (spectroscopy technique), which uses time series remotely sensed environmental, agricultural and anthropic variables, in the southeast region of São Paulo State, Brazil. The availability of the open-access satellite images of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Landsat satellite images provided ten years of rainfall data and 35 years of exposed soil surface. The bare soil surface and agricultural land use were extracted, and the multi-temporal rainfall erosivity was assessed. We predict soil maps' attributes (texture and organic matter) through innovative soil spectroscopy techniques to assess the soil erodibility and soil loss tolerance. The erosivity, erodibility, and topography obtained by the Earth observations were adopted to estimate soil erosion in four scenarios of sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) residue coverage (0%, 50%, 75%, and 100%) in five years of the sugarcane cycle: the first year of sugarcane harvest and four subsequent harvesting years from 2013 to 2017. Soil loss tolerance means 4.3 Mg ha−1 exceeds the minimum rate in 40% of the region, resulting in a total soil loss of ~6 million Mg yr−1 under total coverage management (7 Mg ha−1). Our findings suggest that sugarcane straw production has not been sufficient to protect the soil loss against water erosion. Thus, straw removal is unfeasible unless alternative conservation practices are adopted, such as minimum soil tillage, contour lines, terracing and other techniques that favor increases in organic matter content and soil flocculating cations. This research also identifies a spatiotemporal erosion-prone area that requests an immediately sustainable land development guide to restore and rehabilitate the vulnerable ecosystem service. The high-resolution spatially distribution method provided can identify soil degradation-prone areas and the cropland expansion frequency. This information may guide farms and the policymakers for a better request of conservation practices according to site-specific management variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of wood as a bioenergetic source requires knowledge of its technical properties. The rubber tree Hevea brasiliensis has an economic life cycle of 25 to 30 years in Brazil. It is used for extracting rubber and generating residual wood for fuel. Our goal was to characterize the wood quality of 10 clonal progenies as a source of raw material for bioenergy. Ten clonal progenies of 12-year-old Hevea brasiliensis from an experimental planting in Selvíria municipality were evaluated. Three trees per clone were evaluated for individual properties of Higher Heating Value, immediate chemical analysis, chemical composition, fiber dimensions, thermogravimetric analysis of wood under nitrogen atmosphere and Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy analysis. We highlight clone IAC 311 for fuel because it presents elevated Higher Heating Value and fixed carbon and less volatile material. However, the other genetic materials studied also meet the specifications for energy use and can be highly viable given their physical, chemical, energy, and thermal properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bioenergy from sugarcane production is considered a key mitigation strategy for global warming. Improving its representation in land surface models is important to further understand the interactions between climate and bioenergy production, supporting accurate climate projections and decision‐making. This study aimed to calibrate and evaluate the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) for climate impact assessments in sugarcane. A dataset composed of soil moisture, water and carbon fluxes and biomass measurements from field experiments across Brazil was used to calibrate and evaluate JULES‐crop and JULES‐BE parametrizations. The ability to predict the spatiotemporal variability of sugarcane yields and the impact of climate change was also tested at five Brazilian microregions. Parameters related to sugarcane allometry, crop growth and development were derived and tested for JULES‐crop and JULES‐BE, together with the response to atmospheric carbon dioxide, temperature and low‐water availability (CTW‐response). Both parametrizations showed comparable performance to other sugarcane dynamic models, with a root mean squared error of 6.75 and 6.05 t ha−1 for stalk dry matter for JULES‐crop and JULES‐BE, respectively. The parametrizations were also able to replicate the average yield patterns observed in the five microregions over 30 years when the yield gap factors were taken into account, with the correlation (r) between simulated and observed interannual variability of yields ranging from 0.33 to 0.56. An overall small positive trend was found in future yield projections of sugarcane using the new calibrations, with exception of the Jataí mesoregion which showed a clear negative trend for the SSP5 scenario from the years 2070 to 2100. Our simulations showed that an abrupt negative impact on sugarcane yields is expected if daytime temperatures above 35°C become more frequent. The newly calibrated version of JULES can be applied regionally and globally to help understand the interactions between climate and bioenergy production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land‐use change (LUC)‐related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions determine largely whether bioenergy is a suitable option for climate change mitigation. This study assesses how LUC emissions influence demand for bioenergy to mitigate GHG emissions, and how this affects the energy mix, using Brazil as a case study. A methodological framework is applied linking bioenergy supply curves, with associated costs and spatially explicit LUC emissions, to a bottom‐up energy system model. Furthermore, the influence of four key determining parameters is assessed: agricultural productivity, time horizon, natural succession (NS), and the use of dynamic emission factors (EFs). Demand for new bioenergy plantations range from 0.5 to 6.7 EJ in 2050, and is avoided when its EF reaches above 15 kg CO2/GJbiomass. Dynamic EFs result in earlier and larger use of bioenergy. Static EFs attenuate all emissions evenly over time, resulting in relative high emissions around 2050 when the carbon budget is most stringent. This in contrast to dynamic EFs, having early high peaks because of clearance of natural vegetation, but relatively small long‐term emissions when the carbon budget is most stringent. Exclusion of NS, in combination with spared agricultural land, results in a demand of 6.7 EJ, because of its low carbon penalty. Assuming that land is spared due to continuous yield increase (which is the reason to include NS as and EF component), bypasses the fact that yield improvements (that make those lands available) take place because of demand for bioenergy. When low‐carbon biomass is in limited availability, increasing electrification is observed, leading to electric capacity increase of 62% (mainly wind and solar energy), and a 12% energy system costs increase. Inclusion of spatiotemporal explicit supply potential and LUC emissions leads to improved bioenergy deployment pathways that come closer to the real situation as the dynamic nature of LUC emissions is included. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Since the year 2000 or so there has been a rapid growth on fuel ethanol production and consumption, particularly in US and Brazil. Ethanol trade represented about 10% of world consumption in 2005, Brazil being the main exporter. The most important consumer markets—US and European Union (EU)—have trade regimes that constrained the comparative advantages of the most efficient producers, such as Brazil. This paper evaluates the fuel ethanol market up to 2030 together with the potential for international biotrade. Based on forecasts of gasoline consumption and on targets and mandates of fuel ethanol use, it is estimated that demand could reach 272Gl in 2030, displacing 10% of the estimated demand of gasoline (Scenario 1), or even 566Gl in the same year, displacing about 20% of the gasoline demand (Scenario 2). The analysis considers fuel ethanol consumption and production in US, EU-25, Japan, China, Brazil and the rest of the world (ROW-BR). Without significant production of ethanol from cellulosic materials in this period, displacing 10% of the gasoline demand in 2030, at reasonable cost, can only be accomplished by fostering fuel ethanol production in developing countries and enhancing ethanol trade. If the US and EU-25 reach their full production potential (based on conventional routes), the minimum amount that could be traded in 2030 would be about 34Gl. Displacing 20% of the gasoline demand by 2030 will require the combined development of second-generation technologies and large-scale international trade in ethanol fuel. Without second-generation technologies, Scenario 2 could become a reality only with large-scale production of ethanol from sugarcane in developing countries, e.g., Brazil and ROW-BR could be able to export at least 14.5Gl in 2010, 73.9Gl in 2020 and 71.8Gl in 2030. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The aim of this paper is twofold: (i) to build a model by combining an agglomerative hierarchical algorithm with multicriteria analysis and geographic information systems (GIS) in order to identify whether there are opportunities to create strategic partnerships based on geographic coordinates of raw material suppliers and the volume of raw material supply; and (ii) to apply the model in a case study in order to identify suitable locations for building a biodigester, thus establishing strategic partnerships and circular economy-based practices. The model involves four stages: (1) defining the study site, (2) building the set of cluster solutions, (3) defining the suitable locations for building a biodigester, and (4) conducting analyses of feasibility of strategic partnership and sensitivity. The model was applied in a small region and it was analyzed the possibility of creating two or three clusters. The use of the model allowed, from both quantitative and qualitative perspectives, to preliminarily identify the possibility of creating a strategic partnership, and also determine the location of a biodigester. The case study applied in southern Brazil took place in a region with high potential for generating biogas from agro-waste. A geographic map with roads, rivers, and constraints was built. Strategic partnerships, sensitivity analysis, and circular economy-based practices were discussed. The results of this work could provide useful information when using the model for other regions, and the model could easily incorporate further criteria and conditions, making it flexible and tailored to users' needs. • An important source of clean energy that has been gaining interest worldwide is biogas. • The study build a model by combining an agglomerative hierarchical algorithm with multicriteria GIS. • The work identify whether there are opportunities to create strategic partnerships based on geographical coordinates. • The model was applied in a case study in order to identify suitable locations for the installation of a biodigester. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is consensus that the use of renewable energy must be expanded. More and more restrictions on the use of fossil derived fuels may open the way for an increased consumption of biomass event those so far not perceived as feasible, such some biomass residue. Energy derived from biomass residues may provide even more benefits because it may replace other sources of higher-grade energy while providing proper destination for residues. Biomass from pruning residue has been overlooked as an energy resource due to many limitations. This paper addresses the issue and the means for energy valuation of pruning residues while provides final destination for them. It presents a framework to overcome most of today's challenges across the world. A case study was carried out to determine the main constraints and how they can influence the decision-making process. The variety of urban pruning residues and their rate of generation, handling, storage, logistics, economic and environmental issues, institutional regulations for a small city in Southern Brazil were taken into consideration in the analysis. Pruning residues were sampled in the field, then handled, shredded, dried, specified, stored and burnt in a concurrent woodburning furnace for testing. The diagnostics of the constraints and the lab tests were summarized and organized in a framework that aimed to assess the energy valuation of pruning residues. Results show that with proper assessment tools, projects, biomass analyses and burning technology energy valuation of pruning residues can be feasible. • Energy valuation of biomass pruning residues is feasible given proper conditions. • A novel assessment framework provides routes to overcome most of today's challenges. • A case study of energy valuation of urban pruning biomass residue in Brazil showed feasible to generate 1 to 1.5 MWe. • Information and data of bulk density, moisture content, heating value, of residues of five urban tree species. • Estimate of opportunity costs of disposal of biomass pruning residues in landfills. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the 2010 to 2015 crisis in Brazil's sugarcane sector, mainly caused by government mandated fuel price ceilings, the sector has entered a new growth cycle spurred by implementation of the " RenovaBio " program in 2017. The government created RenovaBio to achieve two overarching goals: increase 2028 ethanol output by roughly 53% and incrementally increase this biofuel's share in the national energy matrix to meet GHG reduction targets established at the Paris Climate Conference - COP21. The study presented in this paper addresses the expansion of mill output to meet expected future demand by 2028 through application of a mixed-integer linear optimization model to (1) determine the amount of additional sugarcane production and mill processing capacity required to meet expected 2028 Brazilian ethanol and sugar demand and (2) optimize the location of this additional capacity to minimize production and transportation costs through the multimodal transportation network. Modeling results estimate that 151,106 t of additional sugarcane processing capacity is needed to meet forecast 2028 Brazilian demand for 41,106 m³ of sugarcane ethanol and 49,106 t of sugar. Expanded mill output will require that sugarcane cultivation increase over an additional 6% of the area defined by Brazilian Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning regulations as suitable for sugarcane cultivation. Following the model's recommended optimal spatial distribution of 2028 mill processing capacity, their output can be produced and transported at a total cost of US$ 458.65/m³ of ethanol and US$ 304.27/t of sugar, slightly below 2016 minimum total costs. • Optimal location of sugarcane crushing capacity in Brazil to meet estimated 2028 demand for ethanol and sugar. • MILP model applied to investigate the best locations for greenfield sugarcane mills. • Spatial optimization of sugar and ethanol supply and interregional freight flows through the multimodal network in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bioethanol production from sugarcane represents an opportunity for urban-agricultural development in small communities of Ecuador. Despite the fact that the industry for bioethanol production from sugarcane in Brazil is fully developed, it is still considered expensive as a small rural business. In order to be able to reduce the costs of monitoring the production process, and avoid the application of expensive sensors, the aim of this research was modeling the kinetics of production of bioethanol based on direct measurements of Brix grades, instead of the concentration of alcohol, during the process of cane juice bio-fermentation with Saccharomyces cerevisiae. This avoids the application of expensive sensors that increase the investment costs. Fermentation experiments with three concentrations of yeast and two temperatures were carried out in a laboratory reactor. In each case Brix grades, amount of ethanol and alcoholic degree were measured. A mathematical model to predict the quality and production of bioethanol was developed from Brix grade measurements, obtaining an adjusted coefficient of determination of 0.97. The model was validated in a pilot plant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural sanitation is still a challenge in developing countries, such as Brazil, where the majority population live with inadequate services, compromising public health and environmental safety. In this context, this study analyzed the demographic density of these rural agglomerations using secondary data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The goal was to identify the possibilities associated with using small-scale upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactors for sewage treatment, mainly focusing on biogas production and its conversion into energy for cooking, water heating and sludge sanitization. Results showed that most rural agglomerations lacking the appropriate sewage treatment were predominant from 500 to 1500 inhabitants in both northern and southern Brazilian regions. The thermal energy available in the biogas would be enough to sanitize the whole amount of sludge produced in the sewage treatment plants (STPs), producing biosolids for agricultural purposes. Furthermore, the surplus of thermal energy (after sludge sanitization) could be routed for cooking (replacing LPG) and for water heating (replacing electricity) in the northern and southern regions, respectively. This would benefit more than 200,000 families throughout rural areas of the country. Besides the direct social gains derived from the practice of supplying biogas for domestic uses in the vicinity of the STPs, there would be tremendous indirect gains related to the avoidance of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, an anaerobic-based sewage treatment may improve public health conditions, life quality and generate added value products in Brazilian rural areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]