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Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions 1-3 . Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest 'carbon sink' will continue for decades 4,5 . Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.53-0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests 6 . Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth's two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature 7-9 . Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth's intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass 10 reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth's climate.

Using an aerosol–climate coupled model, this paper has investigated the changes in distributions of anthropogenic and natural particles due to 4 × CO2-induced global warming, under the low emission scenario of Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). Special attention is paid to the seasonal variations of aerosol size modes. With rising CO2 levels, surface warming, and changes in atmospheric circulations and hydrologic cycles are found during both summer (JJA) and winter (DJF). For anthropogenic particles, changes in fine anthropogenic particulate matter (PM2.5, particles with diameters smaller than 2.5 μm) decrease over high-latitude regions and increase over the tropics in both DJF and JJA. Global mean column concentrations of PM2.5 decrease by approximately 0.19 mg m−2, and concentrations of coarse anthropogenic particles (CPM, particles with diameters larger than 2.5 μm) increase by 0.005 mg m−2 in JJA. Changes in anthropogenic particles in DJF are similar to those in JJA, but the magnitudes of maximum regional changes are much smaller than those in JJA. The coarse anthropogenic particles (CPM, particles with diameters larger than 2.5 μm) increase over northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula during JJA, whereas changes in anthropogenic CPM during DJF are minimal. During both JJA and DJF, changes in anthropogenic CPM are about two orders of magnitude smaller than those of anthropogenic PM2.5. Enhanced wet deposition by large-scale precipitation under rising CO2-induced surface warming is the critical factor affecting changes in anthropogenic particles. For natural particles, the distribution of change in the natural PM2.5 burden is similar to that of natural CPM, but much larger than natural CPM during each season. Both natural PM2.5 and CPM burdens increase over northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula during JJA, but decrease over most of the continental regions during DJF. Changes in surface wind speed, divergence/convergence of surface wind, and precipitation are primary reasons for the variation of natural particles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess the role of riverine inputs of N, Si, Fe, organic and inorganic C in the tropical Atlantic Ocean using a global ocean biogeochemistry model. We use two sensitivity tests to investigate the role of the western (South American Rivers) and eastern (African Rivers) riverine nutrient inputs on the tropical Atlantic Ocean biogeochemistry (between 20° S-20° N and 70° W-20°). Increased nutrient availability from river inputs in this area (compared to an extreme scenario with no river nutrients) leads to an increase in 14% (0.7 PgCa-1) in open ocean primary production (PP), and 21% (0.2 PgCa-1) in coastal ocean PP. We estimate very modest increases in open and coastal ocean export production and sea-air CO2 fluxes. Results suggest that in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, the large riverine nutrient inputs on the western side have a larger impact on primary production and sea-air CO2 exchanges. On the other hand, African river inputs, although smaller than South American inputs, have larger impact on the coastal and open tropical Atlantic Ocean export production. This is probably due to a combination of nutrient trapping in upwelling areas off the Congo River outflow, and differences in delivered nutrient ratios leading to alleviation in limitation conditions mainly for diatoms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to explore whether China-Africa exchange will influence on the African environment. This paper selects four paths of China-Africa exchanges and explores the impact of each path on the African environment under the influence of different factors. We found that construction income and Africa's exports to China will increase Africa's carbon emissions. Foreign direct investment and China's exports to Africa will lead to a reduction in carbon emissions in Africa. The resource moderation will reduce the significance of the environmental impact of each path on Africa. Based on the above conclusions, several suggestions are made on the policies and actual operations in the path of China-Africa exchanges., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Li et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Renewable energy and institutions have emerged among other variables touted to address climate change problems. However, empirical results have been conflicting. With a relatively poorer state of institutional quality and a lower level of renewable energy development amidst rising carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in Africa, the study assesses: a) the direct effect of renewable energy and institutional quality on CO 2 emissions in Africa; and b) the moderation role of institutional quality on the effect of renewable energy on CO 2 emissions in Africa. The study relies on panel data covering 2002-2021 for 32 African countries. The Fully-Modified OLS regression method is employed to analyze the data based on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis and Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, & Technology (STIRPAT) model. The results show that urbanization and trade openness increase CO 2 emissions. Although income has a positive effect on carbon emissions, the square term has a negative confirming the EKC hypothesis. Renewable energy also reduces CO 2 emissions. Institutional quality variables of control of corruption, rule of law, regulatory quality, political stability and absence of violence, voice and accountability, government effectiveness and institutional index created from the above indicators reduce CO 2 emissions. In addition, except government effectiveness, the remaining indicators of institutional quality negatively moderate the effect of renewable energy on CO 2 emissions. The results among other things imply that intensifying the development and usage of renewable energy would help address the rising carbon dioxide emissions trend in Africa. Also, strengthening institutions promises to reduce CO 2 emissions., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

A key goal of the Paris Agreement (PA) is to reach net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 globally, which requires mitigation efforts from all countries. Africa's rapidly growing population and gross domestic product (GDP) make this continent important for GHG emission trends. In this paper, we study the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2), methane (CH 4) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) in Africa over 3 decades (1990–2018). We compare bottom-up (BU) approaches, including United Nations Convention Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC) national inventories, FAO, PRIMAP-hist, process-based ecosystem models for CO 2 fluxes in the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector and global atmospheric inversions. For inversions, we applied different methods to separate anthropogenic CH 4 emissions. The BU inventories show that, over the decade 2010–2018, fewer than 10 countries represented more than 75 % of African fossil CO 2 emissions. With a mean of 1373 Mt CO 2 yr -1 , total African fossil CO 2 emissions over 2010–2018 represent only 4 % of global fossil emissions. However, these emissions grew by +34% from 1990–1999 to 2000–2009 and by +31% from 2000–2009 to 2010–2018, which represents more than a doubling in 30 years. This growth rate is more than 2 times faster than the global growth rate of fossil CO 2 emissions. The anthropogenic emissions of CH 4 grew by 5 % from 1990–1999 to 2000–2009 and by 14.8 % from 2000–2009 to 2010–2018. The N 2 O emissions grew by 19.5 % from 1990–1999 to 2000–2009 and by 20.8 % from 2000–2009 to 2010–2018. When using the mean of the estimates from UNFCCC reports (including the land use sector) with corrections from outliers, Africa was a mean source of greenhouse gases of 262221863239 Mt CO 2 eq. yr -1 from all BU estimates (the subscript and superscript indicate min–max range uncertainties) and of +263717615873 Mt CO 2 eq. yr -1 from top-down (TD) methods during their overlap period from 2001 to 2017. Although the mean values are consistent, the range of TD estimates is larger than the one of the BU estimates, indicating that sparse atmospheric observations and transport model errors do not allow us to use inversions to reduce the uncertainty in BU estimates. The main source of uncertainty comes from CO 2 fluxes in the LULUCF sector, for which the spread across inversions is larger than 50 %, especially in central Africa. Moreover, estimates from national UNFCCC communications differ widely depending on whether the large sinks in a few countries are corrected to more plausible values using more recent national sources following the methodology of Grassi et al. (2022). The medians of CH 4 emissions from inversions based on satellite retrievals and surface station networks are consistent with each other within 2 % at the continental scale. The inversion ensemble also provides consistent estimates of anthropogenic CH 4 emissions with BU inventories such as PRIMAP-hist. For N 2 O, inversions systematically show higher emissions than inventories, on average about 4.5 times more than PRIMAP-hist, either because natural N 2 O sources cannot be separated accurately from anthropogenic ones in inversions or because BU estimates ignore indirect emissions and underestimate emission factors. Future improvements can be expected thanks to a denser network of monitoring atmospheric concentrations. This study helps to introduce methods to enhance the scope of use of various published datasets and allows us to compute budgets thanks to recombinations of those data products. Our results allow us to understand uncertainty and trends in emissions and removals in a region of the world where few observations exist and where most inventories are based on default IPCC guideline values. The results can therefore serve as a support tool for the Global Stocktake (GST) of the Paris Agreement. The referenced datasets related to the figures are available at 10.5281/zenodo.7347077 (Mostefaoui et al., 2022). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Convergence of the environmental indicators has been one of the significant research areas for researchers since the study of Strazicich and List (2003) was published. Earlier papers have concentrated on investigating the existence of the convergence of indicators of the environment by using carbon emissions as a pollution indicator. However, some researchers have criticized the use of carbon emission as a one-dimensional indicator and proposed using ecological footprint as a more comprehensive indicator. The primary aim of this paper is to examine whether stochastic convergence of ecological footprint exists in 49 African countries from 1973 to 2018 by employing a battery of traditional stationarity methods and a newly proposed stationary method with smooth shifts and a combination of p-values. The empirical results show that panel findings of the conventional stationarity test with no structural shifts reveal that ecological footprint follows a stationary process. In contrast, panel findings of the traditional stationarity method with sharp and smooth changes and the newly developed stationary method with smooth shifts and a combination of p-values reveal that ecological footprint follows a non-stationary process. Moreover, the majority of individual results show that the ecological footprint follows a convergent pattern in 38 African countries, whereas it follows a divergent pattern in the remainder. Therefore, the main finding indicates the stochastic convergence of ecological footprint in African countries is validated. The policy outcomes of the empirical results are given in the body of the paper., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

There has been a resurgence of interest in the impacts of agricultural productivity on land use and the environment. At the center of this debate is the assertion that agricultural innovation is land sparing. However, numerous case studies and global empirical studies have found little evidence of higher yields being accompanied by reduced area. We find that these studies overlook two crucial factors: estimation of a true counterfactual scenario and a tendency to adopt a regional, rather than a global, perspective. This paper introduces a general framework for analyzing the impacts of regional and global innovation on long run crop output, prices, land rents, land use, and associated CO2 emissions. In so doing, it facilitates a reconciliation of the apparently conflicting views of the impacts of agricultural productivity growth on global land use and environmental quality. Our historical analysis demonstrates that the Green Revolution in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East was unambiguously land and emissions sparing, compared with a counterfactual world without these innovations. In contrast, we find that the environmental impacts of a prospective African Green Revolution are potentially ambiguous. We trace these divergent outcomes to relative differences between the innovating region and the rest of the world in yields, emissions efficiencies, cropland supply response, and intensification potential. Globalization of agriculture raises the potential for adverse environmental consequences. However, if sustained for several decades, an African Green Revolution will eventually become land sparing.

The terrestrial carbon sink slows the accumulation of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere by absorbing roughly 30% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but varies greatly from year to year. The resulting variations in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) have been related to tropical temperature and water availability. The apparent sensitivity of CGR to tropical temperature ( γ CGR T ) has changed markedly over the past six decades, however, the drivers of the observation to date remains unidentified. Here, we use atmospheric observations, multiple global vegetation models and machine learning products to analyze the cause of the sensitivity change. We found that a threefold increase in γ CGR T emerged due to the long-term changes in the magnitude of CGR variability (i.e., indicated by one standard deviation of CGR; STDCGR), which increased 34.7% from 1960-1979 to 1985-2004 and subsequently decreased 14.4% in 1997-2016. We found a close relationship (r2 = 0.75, p < 0.01) between STDCGR and the tropical vegetated area (23°S – 23°N) affected by extreme droughts, which influenced 6-9% of the tropical vegetated surface. A 1% increase in the tropical area affected by extreme droughts led to about 0.14 Pg C yr−1 increase in STDCGR. The historical changes in STDCGR were dominated by extreme drought-affected areas in tropical Africa and Asia, and semi-arid ecosystems. The outsized influence of extreme droughts over a small fraction of vegetated surface amplified the interannual variability in CGR and explained the observed long-term dynamics of γ CGR T . The apparent temperature sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 growth rate has increased markedly over the past six decades, however, the increase remains unexplained. Here we show that tropical extreme droughts amplified the interannual variability in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and drove the sensitivity change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite has been providing information to estimate carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes at global and regional scales since 2014 through the combination of CO2 retrievals with top–down atmospheric inversion methods. Column average CO2 dry-air mole fraction retrievals have been constantly improved. A bias correction has been applied in the OCO-2 version 9 retrievals compared to the previous OCO-2 version 7r improving data accuracy and coverage. We study an ensemble of 10 atmospheric inversions all characterized by different transport models, data assimilation algorithms, and prior fluxes using first OCO-2 v7 in 2015–2016 and then OCO-2 version 9 land observations for the longer period 2015–2018. Inversions assimilating in situ (IS) measurements have also been used to provide a baseline against which the satellite-driven results are compared. The time series at different scales (going from global to regional scales) of the models emissions are analyzed and compared to each experiment using either OCO-2 or IS data. We then evaluate the inversion ensemble based on the dataset from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), aircraft, and in situ observations, all independent from assimilated data. While we find a similar constraint of global total carbon emissions between the ensemble spread using IS and both OCO-2 retrievals, differences between the two retrieval versions appear over regional scales and particularly in tropical Africa. A difference in the carbon budget between v7 and v9 is found over this region, which seems to show the impact of corrections applied in retrievals. However, the lack of data in the tropics limits our conclusions, and the estimation of carbon emissions over tropical Africa require further analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Africa is one of the most data-scarce regions as satellite observation at the Equator is limited by cloud cover and there is a very limited number of ground-based measurements. As a result, the use of simulations from models is mandatory to fill this data gap. A comparison of satellite observation with model and available in situ observations will be useful to estimate the performance of satellites in the region. In this study, GOSAT column-averaged carbon dioxide dry-air mole fraction (XCO2) is compared with the NOAA CT2016 and six flask observations over Africa using 5 years of data covering the period from May 2009 to April 2014. Ditto for OCO-2 XCO2 against NOAA CT16NRT17 and eight flask observations over Africa using 2 years of data covering the period from January 2015 to December 2016. The analysis shows that the XCO2 from GOSAT is higher than XCO2 simulated by CT2016 by 0.28±1.05 ppm, whereas OCO-2 XCO2 is lower than CT16NRT17 by 0.34±0.9 ppm on the African land mass on average. The mean correlations of 0.83±1.12 and 0.60±1.41 and average root mean square deviation (RMSD) of 2.30±1.45 and 2.57±0.89 ppm are found between the model and the respective datasets from GOSAT and OCO-2, implying the existence of a reasonably good agreement between CT and the two satellites over Africa's land region. However, significant variations were observed in some regions. For example, OCO-2 XCO2 are lower than that of CT16NRT17 by up to 3 ppm over some regions in North Africa (e.g. Egypt, Libya, and Mali), whereas it exceeds CT16NRT17 XCO2 by 2 ppm over Equatorial Africa (10 ∘ S–10 ∘ N). This regional difference is also noted in the comparison of model simulations and satellite observations with flask observations over the continent. For example, CT shows a better sensitivity in capturing flask observations over sites located in North Africa. In contrast, satellite observations have better sensitivity in capturing flask observations in lower-altitude island sites. CT2016 shows a high spatial mean of seasonal mean RMSD of 1.91 ppm during DJF with respect to GOSAT, while CT16NRT17 shows 1.75 ppm during MAM with respect to OCO-2. On the other hand, low RMSDs of 1.00 and 1.07 ppm during SON in the model XCO2 with respect to GOSAT and OCO-2 are respectively determined, indicating better agreement during autumn. The model simulation and satellite observations exhibit similar seasonal cycles of XCO2 with a small discrepancy over Southern Africa (35–10 ∘ S) and during wet seasons over all regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dissolved methane in Lake Kivu (East Africa) represents a precious energy deposit for the neighbouring countries, but the high gas loads have also been perceived as a threat by the local population. This is especially the case with respect to potential changes to the lake's stratification during planned industrial exploitation. Both of the above-mentioned issues require accurate and reliable measurements of dissolved gases and temporal changes to take responsible action. Previous data were unable to satisfactorily fulfil these requirements. Prior to our measurements, there was considerable disagreement about prognosticated new formation of methane. We show how measurement accuracy could be significantly improved by implementing equipment that is especially designed and modified for the complex gas conditions in Lake Kivu. Samples were taken from depths of 150 to 430 m to more reliably and more accurately determine the amount of dissolved methane and dissolved carbon dioxide. Beyond the provision of gas concentration profiles at the beginning of exploitation, this investigation can also potentially provide methods to survey the further evolution of gases over time. The use of gas-tight sampling bags produced highly reliable and accurate measurements. Our measurements confirmed the huge amount of stored methane, but clearly did not support the current belief of a significant recharge beyond diffusive loss. Direct measurements with a custom-made gas pressure sensor indicated no imminent danger due to limnic eruptions. However, a further survey of gas pressures is mandatory to detect changing conditions. Using sampling bags and a gas pressure sensor, we introduced reliable and highly accurate measurement approaches for the survey of the further development of gas concentrations. This equipment requires little effort with respect to calibration, which makes it suitable for use in the remote areas of Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few field studies examine greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from African agricultural systems, resulting in high uncertainty for national inventories. This lack of data is particularly noticeable in smallholder farms in sub-Saharan Africa, where low inputs are often correlated with low yields, often resulting in food insecurity as well. We provide the most comprehensive study in Africa to date, examining annual soil CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions from 59 smallholder plots across different vegetation types, field types and land classes in western Kenya. The study area consists of a lowland area (approximately 1200 ma.s.l.) rising approximately 600 m to a highland plateau. Cumulative annual fluxes ranged from 2.8 to 15.0 Mg CO2-C ha-1, -6.0 to 2.4 kg CH4-C ha-1 and -0.1 to 1.8 kg N2O-N ha-1. Management intensity of the plots did not result in differences in annual GHG fluxes measured (P = 0.46, 0.14 and 0.67 for CO2, CH4 and N2O respectively). The similar emissions were likely related to low fertilizer input rates (≤ 20 kg N ha-1). Grazing plots had the highest CO2 fluxes (P = 0.005), treed plots (plantations) were a larger CH4 sink than grazing plots (P = 0.05), while soil N2O emissions were similar across vegetation types (P = 0.59). This study is likely representative for low fertilizer input, smallholder systems across sub-Saharan Africa, providing critical data for estimating regional or continental GHG inventories. Low crop yields, likely due to low fertilization inputs, resulted in high (up to 67 g N2O-N kg-1 aboveground N uptake) yield-scaled emissions. Improvement of crop production through better water and nutrient management might therefore be an important tool in increasing food security in the region while reducing the climate footprint per unit of food produced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical forests in Africa store large amounts of carbon and there is an urgent need for accurate methods to estimate this important carbon stock. One method to achieve this is by allometric equations but in many forest ecosystems in Africa these have not been developed. This study combined biomass data of 896 trees from five tropical countries in Africa and eight different sources to develop mixed-species regression equations for estimation of total biomass and height in Dry, Moist and Wet forest types. For estimation of total biomass, allometric equations combining diameter, height and wood density provided the best estimators in the three forest types. Because adding wood density to diameter improved height estimation, we recommend using allometric equations that combine diameter and wood density for height estimations in mixed and diverse tropical forests. Comparing ecosystem-specific (Dry, Moist and Wet) allometric equations to general allometric equations developed with combined data, and also to pan-tropical equations, showed that ecosystem-specific equations provided better estimators. The results highlight the importance of considering wood density in tree allometry for biomass as well as for tree height estimations. Although general allometric equations can be useful, this study recommends when they are available, the use of existing site-specific or ecosystem-specific allometric equations which provide better estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An understanding of the regional contributions and trends of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is critical to design mitigation strategies aimed at stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Here we report CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels and land use change in Africa for various time periods. Africa was responsible for an average of 500 TgC y-1 for the period 2000-2005. These emissions resulted from the combustion of fossil fuels (260 TgC y1-) and land use change (240 TgC y-1). Over this period, the African share of global emissions from land use change was 17%. For 2005, the last year reported in this study, African fossil fuel emissions were 285 TgC accounting for 3.7% of the global emissions. The 2000-2005 growth rate in African fossil fuel emissions was 3.2% y-1, very close to the global average. Fossil fuel emissions per capita in Africa are among the lowest in the world, at 0.32 tC y-1 compared to the global average of 1.2 tC y-1. The average amount of carbon (C) emitted as CO2 to produce 1US$ of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Africa in 2005 was 187 gC/$, close to the world average of 199 gC/$. With the fastest population growth in the world and rising per capita GDP, Africa is likely to increase its share of global emissions over the coming decades although emissions from Africa will remain low compared to other continents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]