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The Chinese government's use of fiscal policy, which includes fiscal income and spending, is crucial in its fight against environmental pollution and climate change. Innovation‐driven has arisen as a new alternative to reconcile economic success with environmental conservation in light of tighter resource restrictions and the suggestion of the Chinese High‐quality Development policy. The paper uses an econometric model to examine the connection between institutional resource consumption efficiency and carbon neutrality, using a data set consisting of Chinese inter‐provincial panel data from 2007 to 2020 as a research sample; fiscal decentralization is also discussed as a potential moderating factor. Collaborative innovation positively boosts ecological efficiency and produces geographical spillovers, and the findings suggest so long as the economic distance is considered. When it comes to increasing ecological efficiency, collaborative innovation plays a more important role than financial decentralization alone. Among these is the improvement of carbon neutrality, which is best achieved via the joint promotion of ecological efficiency and industrial organizations. By reducing the intensity of the positive effect of innovative cooperation on ecological efficiency, the moderating effect suggests that fiscal decentralization is a critical factor in this relationship. Promoting China's ecological efficiency necessitates a fair distribution of local budgetary spending. China should also actively encourage the degree of synergy between institutional resource consumption efficiency and associated institutions to improve eco‐efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A CGE model elaborately depicting six CCS technologies was developed. • Impacts of four CCS incentive scenarios on decarbonization pathways were simulated. • CCS can sequester 960 ∼ 1,604 MtCO 2 annually in China by 2060 with policy incentives. • CCS incentives can reduce China's future primary energy demand by 7.7 ∼ 17.4 %. • CCS incentives can increase GDP by 5.64 ∼ 6.59 % compared to no policy scenario. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, considered as a pivotal tool in mitigating climate change within the fossil energy system, particularly in China, has experienced slower development than expected. The exploration of direct incentive policies to facilitate its growth remains relatively underdeveloped. This study developed a hybrid dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the substantial impacts of CCS incentive policies on China within the context of carbon neutrality target. Two potential incentive policies, carbon emission trading system (ETS) and 45Q tax credit, were simulated, with different sectoral coverage. The results indicate that CCS technologies can reduce carbon emissions by 960 ∼ 1,604 MtCO 2 annually by 2060 through the strategic implementation of these incentive policies. The 45Q tax credit demonstrates its effectiveness in promoting early-stage research and development (R&D) and demonstration of CCS, while the ETS policy facilitates the commercial development of CCS in the later stage of development. By 2060, the implementation of CCS incentive policies could potentially result in 7.7 ∼ 17.4 % reduction in China's primary energy consumption, 71.2 ∼ 82.7 % decrease in the carbon price of ETS and 5.64 ∼ 6.59 % increase in the GDP compared with the no-policy scenario. In addition, the sectoral output in various sectors and the welfare of urban and rural households also increase. This paper provides an important reference for the realization of China's carbon neutrality goal and the model framework can be applied to other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• More reliable modeling assumptions and methods are proposed. • Price regulation may increase industrial output in China. • The reform can lead to a cleaner power mix and better economic structure. • The reform can be of great help to alleviate the fiscal deficit. • Impact mechanisms through cost linkages in different situations are put forward. China promised to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060. However, electricity prices are still regulated, which may affect the effect of carbon neutrality, especially in China, because 70% of China's electricity comes from thermal power generation. In this paper, a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model (CEEEA/CGE model) is applied to simulate the electricity market-oriented reform under the target of carbon neutrality from 2020 to 2060. The results show that the target may increase the demand for labor and capital to cope with increasing energy costs, and the reform may reduce GDP. However, power reform can significantly optimize the energy and economic structures and alleviate the fiscal deficit. Moreover, this paper finds and concludes the mechanism causing these effects (such as factor substitution, price advantage, government revenue, and structure), which provides policymakers with a new perspective of power reform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon dioxide (CO2) Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) is an indispensable part of the carbon removal technologies to achieve carbon neutrality for China. Our study focuses on China's CCUS pathways, and draws out three key conclusions: (1) in terms of the greenhouse gases emission reductions required to achieve carbon neutrality and based on current technology projections, the CO2 emission reductions to be achieved by CCUS are 0.6 ∼ 1.4 billion tonnes and 1 ∼ 1.8 billion tonnes in 2050 and 2060, respectively; (2) from the perspective of source-sink matching in China, the emission reduction potential provided by CCUS can basically meet the demand of carbon neutrality target (0.6 ∼ 2.1 billion tonnes of CO2); (3) with the development of technologies, the cost of CCUS in China has a great potential to be reduced in the future. It is expected that by 2030, the technical cost of the whole CCUS process (according to 250 kilometers transportation) in China will be 310 ∼ 770 Chinese Yuan per tonne of CO2, and by 2060, it will gradually drop to 140 ∼ 410 Chinese Yuan per tonne of CO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The influencing factors of carbon prices in China's carbon market are analysed. • The influencing factors and historical data are combined to predict the carbon price. • The EEMD-BP-ELM model and the CHINAGEM-E model are constructed and combined. Carbon price is one of the core indicators of the carbon market. Making accurate predictions of carbon prices based on insight into the volatility characteristics of the carbon market will not only provide a scientific basis for investors and regulators to make decisions and greatly promote emission reduction, but also effectively promote the healthy development of the carbon financial market. Based on the historical carbon price data of the national carbon market, this paper constructs the EEMD-BP-ELM model to predict the high and low frequency components of China's future carbon price. On this basis, according to China's goal of peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060, the CHINAGEM-E model is used to predict the trend component of the carbon price under the baseline and the 2060 carbon neutral scenarios. Finally, the trend component is combined with the high and low frequency components to obtain the price range from 2022 to 2060. We find that under the baseline scenario, China's carbon price range in 2060 is [343, 785] CNY/tCO2, while under the 2060 carbon neutral scenario, this price range is [1543, 3531] CNY/tCO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon emission right allowance is a double-edged sword, one edge is to reduce emission as its original design intention, another edge has in practice slain many less developed coal-consuming enterprises, especially for those in thermal power industry. Partially governed on the hilt in hands of the authority, body of this sword is the prices of carbon emission right. How should the thermal power plants dance on the blade motivates this research. Considering the impact of price fluctuations of carbon emission right allowance, we investigate the operation of Chinese thermal power plant by modeling the decision-making with optimal stopping problem, which is established on the stochastic environment with carbon emission allowance price process simulated by geometric Brownian motion. Under the overall goal of maximizing the ultimate profitability, the optimal stopping indicates the timing of suspend or halt of production, hence the optimal stopping boundary curve implies the edge of life and death with regard to this enterprise. Applying this methodology, real cases of failure and survival of several Chinese representative thermal power plants were analyzed to explore the industry ecotope, which leads to the findings that: 1) The survival environment of existed thermal power plants becomes severer when facing more pressure from the newborn carbon-finance market. 2) Boundaries of survival environment is mainly drawn by the technical improvements for rising the utilization rate of carbon emission. Based on the same optimal stopping model, outlook of this industry is drawn with a demarcation surface defining the vivosphere of thermal power plants with different levels of profitability. This finding provides benchmarks for those enterprises struggling for survival and policy makers scheming better supervision and necessary intervene, and the methodology developed in this paper provides a research paradigm for enterprise survival analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]