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Multi-energy systems can provide a constant level of service to end-use energy demands, while deriving delivered energy from a variety of primary/secondary energy sources. This fuel-switching capability can be used to reduce operating expenses, reduce environmental impacts, improve flexibility to accommodate renewable energy, and improve reliability. This paper presents four frameworks for incentivizing energy hub equipment investments for low-carbon operation targets. These frameworks vary in the measures taken to achieve low-carbon operation (explicit constraint versus carbon pricing) and in the relationship between the hub builder and operator (cooperative versus uncoordinated). The underlying energy hub model upon which these frameworks are built is an enhanced greenfield model, introducing “energy buses” to reduce dimensionality. A case study is conducted for a campus being designed in Beijing, and results from each framework are compared to illustrate their relative costs. When the operator cannot be trusted to cooperate in controlling emissions, the system must be “overbuilt” with more expensive equipment to ensure emissions target are met. A taxation-based approach increases overall costs at moderate emissions targets, but this effect decreases at aggressive targets. This paper also compares the cost of less efficient institutional frameworks with the most efficient approach, i.e., cooperation between builder and operator with constraints on emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the carbon compensation mechanism as a tool to promote coordinated economic and environmental development in China's Jing-Jin-Ji region (Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei). A novel approach for calculating carbon compensation cost that integrate emission responsibility as well as carbon abatement cost through a bi-level programming model is proposed. Shared producer and consumer responsibility is established for carbon emissions under the multi-regional input-output model. Marginal abatement costs of Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei are further calculated through the input-output and linear programming method. Results highlight that the emission responsibility allocation method significantly affects the inter-regional carbon compensation amount. The production-based approach leads to a 77% reduction of carbon compensation amount from Beijing to Hebei, and a 170% overestimation from Tianjin to Hebei compared with the shared responsibility approach in 2060. The optimal carbon compensation unit cost ranges from 1539 to 6438 yuan/ton when the carbon reduction ratio ranges from 10% to 20%. Beijing would compensate Hebei 3.56 and 29.74 billion yuan for achieving 10% and 20% emission reduction, respectively. Similarly, Tianjin's compensation for Hebei would be 0.23 and 1.87 billion yuan in the two scenarios. Results further show that implementing the proposed carbon compensation mechanism can reduce total abatement cost by 43% and 84% in Jing-Jin-Ji under the two scenarios. The methods and results of this paper could help inform future carbon compensation implementation in China and other countries. • Develop a bi-level programming model to determine optimal carbon compensation cost. • Consider emission responsibility and carbon abatement cost in Jing-Jin-Ji. • Resulting mechanism reduces abatement cost by 43% for 10% emission reduction. • Production-based allocation underestimates carbon compensation amount by 62%. • Optimal carbon compensation unit cost changes with marginal abatement cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In addition to its important economic value, carbon trading is also an important tool in international politics and diplomacy. Carbon price forecast accuracy has far-reaching implications for economic development and the environment. Few existing studies have been more accurate in predicting carbon prices over longer periods. In this paper, the incremental Gaussian nonlinear trend fuzzy granulation method and the Gaussian nonlinear trend fuzzy granulation method are innovatively proposed to predict carbon prices. This study first converts carbon prices into incremental granulation time series. A time-varying core line is added to produce nonlinear trend granulation on the foundation of linear trend granulation. The nonlinear trend and residual information are then predicted using the DeeAR network, respectively, and the final prediction result is obtained by adding the predicted values for each. Moreover, a new evaluation index, the comprehensive evaluation of RMSE, MAE, and MAPE as three indicators, is proposed to consider the accuracy of the evaluation index more comprehensively and reliably. The results show that the prediction method has the smallest error in long-term prediction compared with other models. The daily closing price datasets of carbon exchanges published in Shenzhen and Beijing are used to validate the efficacy of this methodology. • A modified Gaussian nonlinear trend that can better fit the actual data is proposed. • Incremental Gaussian nonlinear trend fuzzy granulation method with F test is proposed. • A new evaluation index is proposed to make the prediction result more interpretable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unit pricing for domestic waste, or pay-as-you-throw (PAYT), affords a promising policy option for waste classification and reduction at source. As an emerging economy, China intends to adopt the sophisticated instrument of unit pricing. The public attitude to this policy is of high relevance for its actual implementation. For the first time in China, this paper quantitatively examined the acceptability of the policy among urban residents by randomly delivering 632 questionnaires by taking Beijing, a megacity expected to introduce the practice, as an example. Based on the ordered logit model, determinants of acceptability were empirically tested including intrinsic, external and demographic factors. The results show that the acceptability rate of PAYT in Beijing is less than half, with the proportion of firm support reaching only 42.6%. The respectively low acceptability rate indicates substantial compliance costs, due to intensive resistance to policy implementation and more resources to be invested to promote acceptability. Empirical analysis further indicates that (1) regarding demographic features, aged or less educated residents tend to accept unit pricing, (2) as for intrinsic factors, a friendly environmental attitude, deeper understanding of charging policy and better social perception can significantly improve the public acceptability of the policy, and (3) in terms of external factors, better property services and transparent funding mechanisms play significant roles in enhancing public acceptability. These findings are further confirmed by replacing the dependent variable with either the willingness to pay for household waste disposal or the acceptability of the operated sewage treatment fee. The status of residents' preference for specific pricing methods is further investigated with underlying reasons being revealed. For developing regions with an urgent demand for waste reduction, it is proposed to install unit pricing in time to avoid possible growing social acceptability costs. Specific measures are proposed including changes in intrinsic factors, paying attention to focus groups, and building social consensus for unit pricing. [Display omitted] • Public acceptability of unit pricing policy is quantitatively examined in Beijing. • A random face-to-face survey is designed and conducted by covering 632 households. • The acceptability rate is only 42.6%, indicating high policy compliance costs. • Demographic, intrinsic and external factors play roles in improving acceptability. • Specific suggestions are proposed for regions like Beijing to introduce the policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study elaborated an evolutionary game model to optimize the decision-making process on the interaction between civil aviation and high-speed rail under alternative passenger ticket prices (PTPs) and carbon trading prices (CTPs). First, a logit model was used to calculate the passenger flow distribution rate in civil aviation and HSR, and their revenue loss function was determined according to varying PTPs and CTPs. Second, an evolutionary game model with incomplete information was developed to assess the respective revenues. Third, the stable strategy solution of the game model was derived from replicator dynamics, and an investigation of stable conditions under variable cases was performed. Finally, the simulation of a case study on the Beijing–Shanghai corridor was conducted to validate the proposed model's feasibility. The additional revenue is shown to be the key influencing factor, mainly controlling the strategic decisions of airport and high-speed rail companies. Besides, the final strategy was strongly influenced by the alteration of PTPs and CTPs: higher PTPs promoted civil aviation and high-speed rail collaboration, while increased CTPs forced their competing behavior. The results obtained are instrumental in outlining the optimal strategy range for passenger ticket and carbon trading prices, encouraging high-speed transportation system growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon prices are low and fluctuate greatly since Chinese carbon emissions trading scheme pilots were operated. This paper discusses the price drivers in the pilots, using structural breaks test and autoregressive distributed lag model. The results indicate that oversupply of allowances, low auction prices and use of China certified emission reductions will cause remarkable decline on carbon prices; the expansion of carbon market and centralized trading will rise carbon prices. Oil prices are positively correlated with carbon prices, and coal prices are negatively related with carbon prices. Carbon-intensive product prices also affect carbon prices. Chemical prices are positively linked with carbon prices in Shenzhen, while negatively related with those in Beijing and Shanghai, for differences in sectoral coverage. Nonferrous prices have positive impacts on carbon prices in Beijing but negative impacts on those in Shenzhen, for differences in industrial structure. Financial markets and weather have limited impacts on carbon prices. Our results provide policy implications for the development of pilots and the national carbon market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]