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Background In mid-2016, a cholera outbreak occurred in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. This retrospective study aims to determine if a reactive, ring vaccination strategy would have been useful in preventing cholera transmission during that outbreak. Methods Data on cholera cases were collected as part of hospital-based surveillance in the Kathmandu Valley in 2016. Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinates were obtained during household visits. Geographic clusters of cases were visually determined and tested statistically for clustering. Cluster size was determined based on the distribution of cases around the index case. Results GPS coordinates for 69 cases were analysed. Six geographic clusters were identified, all of which showed significant clustering of cases. Approximately 85% of cases within a cluster occurred more than 7 d after the index case. The median ring size was 1 km, with a population of 14 000 people. Conclusions Cholera cases were clustered in space and the majority of cases occurred over 1 week after the initial cases in the cluster, allowing for an opportunity to prevent transmission through the use of the vaccine soon after the initial case was identified. A ring vaccination strategy may be especially useful for large urban areas with recurrent seasonal outbreaks but where the specific locations for such outbreaks are not predictable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Several studies have shown that inactivated, whole-cell oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) confer both direct protection on vaccinees and herd protection on populations. Because our earlier cluster-randomized effectiveness trial (CRT) in urban Bangladesh failed to detect OCV herd protection, we reanalysed the trial to assess whether herd effects were masked in our original analysis.Methods: A total of 267 270 persons were randomized to 90 approximately equal-sized clusters. In 60 clusters persons aged 1 year and older were eligible to receive OCV and in 30 clusters persons received no intervention and served as controls. We analysed OCV protection against severely dehydrating cholera for the entire clusters, as in our original analysis, and for subclusters consisting of residents of innermost households. We hypothesized that if OCV herd protection was attenuated by cholera transmission into the clusters from the outside in this densely populated setting, herd protection would be most evident in the innermost households.Results: During 2 years of follow-up of all residents of the clusters, total protection (protection of OCV recipients relative to control residents) was 58% [95% confidence interval (CI): 43%, 70%; P<0.0001], indirect protection (protection of non-OCV recipients in OCV clusters relative to control participants) was 16% (95% CI: -20%, 41%; P=0.35) and overall OCV protection (protection of all residents in the OCV clusters relative to control residents) was 46% (95% CI: 30%, 59%; P<0.0001). Analyses of the inner 75% and 50% households of the clusters showed similar findings. However, total protection was 75% (95% CI: 50%, 87%, P<0.0001), indirect protection 52% (95% CI: -9%, 79%; P=0.08) and overall protection 72% (95% CI: 49%, 84%; P<0.0001) for the innermost 25% households.Conclusion: Consistent with past studies, substantial OCV herd protective effects were identified, but were unmasked only by analysing innermost households of the clusters. Caution is needed in defining clusters for analysis of vaccine herd effects in CRTs of vaccines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: : Cholera remains a serious public health threat in Asia, Africa and in parts of the Americas. Three World health Organization (WHO) pre-qualified oral cholera vaccines are now available but their supply is limited, so current supplies must be administered strategically. This requires an improved understanding of disease transmission and control strategies.Methods: : We used demographics and disease surveillance data collected from 1991 to 2000 in Matlab, Bangladesh, to estimate the spatial and temporal extent of the zone of increased risk around cholera cases. Specifically, we compare the cholera incidence among individuals living close to cholera cases with that among individuals living close to those without medically-attended cholera in this rural endemic setting.Results: : Those living within 50 m of a confirmed cholera case had 36 times (95% confidence interval: 23-56) the risk of becoming a cholera case in the first 3 days (after case presentation) compared with risk elsewhere in the community. The relative risk gradually declined in space and time, but remained significantly high up to 450 me away within 3 days of case presentation, and up to 150 m away within 23 days from the date of presentation of the case.Conclusion: : These findings suggest that, if conducted rapidly, vaccinating individuals living close to a case (ring vaccination) could be an efficient and effective strategy to target vaccine to a high-risk population in an endemic setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Past research has suggested that the most cost-effective approach to using oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) to control endemic cholera may be to target only children <15 y of age. However, the assumption that vaccination of children with OCVs protects unvaccinated adults has never been tested. Methods We reanalyzed the data of an OCV trial in Bangladesh in which children 2–15 y of age and women >15 y of age were allocated to OCV or placebo and assessed herd protection by relating the risk of cholera in each nonvaccinated adult (>15 y) to OCV coverage (OCVC) of residents residing in virtual clusters within 500 m of the residence of that unvaccinated adult. Results The risk of cholera in unvaccinated adults decreased by 14% with each 10% increase of OCVC of all targeted age groups (95% 7 to 21%, p=0.0004). Also, the risk of cholera in unvaccinated adults decreased by 13% with each 10% increase in OCVC of children 2–15 y of age (95% CI 6 to 20%, p=0.0007). A high correlation between levels of OCVC of children and adult females precluded an assessment of the herd protection of unvaccinated adults by vaccinating children <16 y of age, independent of concomitant vaccination of adult women. Conclusions Unvaccinated adults benefitted from herd protection conferred by OCVs in this trial. Vaccination of children may be sufficient to confer this protection, but this possibility needs to be evaluated in further studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Cholera is known to be transmitted from person to person, and inactivated oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) have been shown to confer herd protection via interruption of this transmission. However, the geographic dimensions of chains of person-to-person transmission of cholera are uncertain. The ability of OCVs to confer herd protection was used to define these dimensions in two cholera-endemic settings, one in rural Bangladesh and the other in urban India. Methods Two large randomized, placebo-controlled trials of inactivated OCVs, one in rural Matlab, Bangladesh and the other in urban Kolkata, India, were reanalyzed. Vaccine herd protection was evaluated by relating the risk of cholera in placebo recipients to vaccine coverage of surrounding residents residing within concentric rings. In Matlab, concentric rings in 100-m increments up to 700 m were evaluated; in Kolkata, 50-m increments up to 350 m were evaluated. Results One hundred and eight cholera cases among 24 667 placebo recipients were detected during 1 year of post-vaccination follow-up at Matlab; 128 cholera cases among 34 968 placebo recipients were detected during 3 years of follow-up in Kolkata. Consistent inverse relationships were observed between vaccine coverage of the ring and the risk of cholera in the central placebo recipient for rings with radii up to 500 m in Matlab and up to 150 m in Kolkata. Conclusions These results suggest that the dimensions of chains of person-to-person transmission in endemic settings can be quite large and may differ substantially from setting to setting. Using OCVs as ‘probes’ to define these dimensions can inform geographical targeting strategies for the deployment of these vaccines in endemic settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite advance in science and technology for prevention, detection and treatment of cholera, this infectious disease remains a major public health problem in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Uganda inclusive. The aim of this study was to identify cholera hotspots in Uganda to guide the development of a roadmap for prevention, control and elimination of cholera in the country. Methodology/Principle findings: We obtained district level confirmed cholera outbreak data from 2011 to 2016 from the Ministry of Health, Uganda. Population and rainfall data were obtained from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, and water, sanitation and hygiene data from the Ministry of Water and Environment. A spatial scan test was performed to identify the significantly high risk clusters. Cholera hotspots were defined as districts whose center fell within a significantly high risk cluster or where a significantly high risk cluster was completely superimposed onto a district. A zero-inflated negative binomial regression model was employed to identify the district level risk factors for cholera. In total 11,030 cases of cholera were reported during the 6-year period. 37(33%) of 112 districts reported cholera outbreaks in one of the six years, and 20 (18%) districts experienced cholera at least twice in those years. We identified 22 districts as high risk for cholera, of which 13 were near a border of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), while 9 districts were near a border of Kenya. The relative risk of having cholera inside the high-risk districts (hotspots) were 2 to 22 times higher than elsewhere in the country. In total, 7 million people were within cholera hotspots. The negative binomial component of the ZINB model shows people living near a lake or the Nile river were at increased risk for cholera (incidence rate ratio, IRR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.97 to 0.99, p < .01); people living near the border of DRC/Kenya or higher incidence rate in the neighboring districts were increased risk for cholera in a district (IRR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.98 to 1.00, p = .02 and IRR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.03, p < .01, respectively). The zero inflated component of the ZINB model yielded shorter distance to Kenya or DRC border, higher incidence rate in the neighboring districts, and higher annual rainfall in the district were associated with the risk of having cholera in the district. Conclusions/significance: The study identified cholera hotspots during the period 2011–2016. The people located near the international borders, internationally shared lakes and river Nile were at higher risk for cholera outbreaks than elsewhere in the country. Targeting cholera interventions to these locations could prevent and ultimately eliminate cholera in Uganda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Even though cholera has existed for centuries and many parts of the country have sporadic, endemic and epidemic cholera, it is still an under-recognized health problem in India. A Cholera Expert Group in the country was established to gather evidence and to prepare a road map for control of cholera in India. This paper identifies cholera burden hotspots and factors associated with an increased risk of the disease. Methodology/Principle findings: We acquired district level data on cholera case reports of 2010–2015 from the Integrated Disease Surveillance Program. Socioeconomic characteristics and coverage of water and sanitation was obtained from the 2011 census. Spatial analysis was performed to identify cholera hotspots, and a zero-inflated Poisson regression was employed to identify the factors associated with cholera and predicted case count in the district. 27,615 cholera cases were reported during the 6-year period. Twenty-four of 36 states of India reported cholera during these years, and 13 states were classified as endemic. Of 641 districts, 78 districts in 15 states were identified as “hotspots” based on the reported cases. On the other hand, 111 districts in nine states were identified as “hotspots” from model-based predicted number of cases. The risk for cholera in a district was negatively associated with the coverage of literate persons, households using treated water source and owning mobile telephone, and positively associated with the coverage of poor sanitation and drainage conditions and urbanization level in the district. Conclusions/Significance: The study reaffirms that cholera continues to occur throughout a large part of India and identifies the burden hotspots and risk factors. Policymakers may use the findings of the article to develop a roadmap for prevention and control of cholera in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Vaccinating a buffer of individuals around a case (ring vaccination) has the potential to target those who are at highest risk of infection, reducing the number of doses needed to control a disease. We explored the potential vaccine effectiveness (VE) of oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) for such a strategy.Methods and Findings: This analysis uses existing data from a cluster-randomized clinical trial in which OCV or placebo was given to 71,900 participants in Kolkata, India, from 27 July to 10 September 2006. Cholera surveillance was then conducted on 144,106 individuals living in the study area, including trial participants, for 5 y following vaccination. First, we explored the risk of cholera among contacts of cholera patients, and, second, we measured VE among individuals living within 25 m of cholera cases between 8 and 28 d after onset of the index case. For the first analysis, individuals living around each index case identified during the 5-y period were assembled using a ring to define cohorts of individuals exposed to cholera index cases. An index control without cholera was randomly selected for each index case from the same population, matched by age group, and individuals living around each index control were assembled using a ring to define cohorts not exposed to cholera cases. Cholera attack rates among the exposed and non-exposed cohorts were compared using different distances from the index case/control to define the rings and different time frames to define the period at risk. For the VE analysis, the exposed cohorts were further stratified according to the level of vaccine coverage into high and low coverage strata. Overall VE was assessed by comparing the attack rates between high and low vaccine coverage strata irrespective of individuals' vaccination status, and indirect VE was assessed by comparing the attack rates among unvaccinated members between high and low vaccine coverage strata. Cholera risk among the cohort exposed to cholera cases was 5-11 times higher than that among the cohort not exposed to cholera cases. The risk gradually diminished with an increase in distance and time. The overall and indirect VE measured between 8 and 28 d after exposure to a cholera index case during the first 2 y was 91% (95% CI 62%-98%) and 93% (95% CI 44%-99%), respectively. VE persisted for 5 y after vaccination and was similar whether the index case was a young child (<5 y) or was older. Of note, this study was a reanalysis of a cholera vaccine trial that used two doses; thus, a limitation of the study relates to the assumption that a single dose, if administered quickly, will induce a similar level of total and indirect protection over the short term as did two doses.Conclusions: These findings suggest that high-level protection can be achieved if individuals living close to cholera cases are living in a high coverage ring. Since this was an observational study including participants who had received two doses of vaccine (or placebo) in the clinical trial, further studies are needed to determine whether a ring vaccination strategy, in which vaccine is given quickly to those living close to a case, is feasible and effective.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00289224. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The global burden of cholera is largely unknown because the majority of cases are not reported. The low reporting can be attributed to limited capacity of epidemiological surveillance and laboratories, as well as social, political, and economic disincentives for reporting. We previously estimated 2.8 million cases and 91,000 deaths annually due to cholera in 51 endemic countries. A major limitation in our previous estimate was that the endemic and non-endemic countries were defined based on the countries' reported cholera cases. We overcame the limitation with the use of a spatial modelling technique in defining endemic countries, and accordingly updated the estimates of the global burden of cholera. Methods/Principal Findings: Countries were classified as cholera endemic, cholera non-endemic, or cholera-free based on whether a spatial regression model predicted an incidence rate over a certain threshold in at least three of five years (2008-2012). The at-risk populations were calculated for each country based on the percent of the country without sustainable access to improved sanitation facilities. Incidence rates from population-based published studies were used to calculate the estimated annual number of cases in endemic countries. The number of annual cholera deaths was calculated using inverse variance-weighted average case-fatality rate (CFRs) from literature-based CFR estimates. We found that approximately 1.3 billion people are at risk for cholera in endemic countries. An estimated 2.86 million cholera cases (uncertainty range: 1.3m-4.0m) occur annually in endemic countries. Among these cases, there are an estimated 95,000 deaths (uncertainty range: 21,000-143,000). Conclusion/Significance: The global burden of cholera remains high. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for the majority of this burden. Our findings can inform programmatic decision-making for cholera control. Author Summary: The global burden of cholera is largely unknown because the majority of cases are not reported. The low reporting can be attributed to limited capacity of epidemiological surveillance and laboratories, as well as social, political, and economic disincentives for reporting. We previously estimated 2.8 million cases and 91,000 deaths annually due to cholera in 51 endemic countries. A major limitation in our previous estimate was that the endemic and non-endemic countries were defined based on the countries' reported cholera cases. If a country did not report cases even though the country had cholera, the country was classified as cholera free. This time we addressed this limitation by using a spatial modelling technique, which helped us define the cholera-endemic countries based on access to improved water and sanitation in the country as well as cholera incidence in neighboring countries. Our new estimate illustrates 2.9 million of cases and 95,000 deaths in 69 endemic countries, with the majority of the burden in Sub-Saharan Africa. The sustained high burden of cholera points to the necessity for integrated and improved control efforts, and these findings may help programmatic decision-making for controlling the disease in endemic countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The global burden of cholera is largely unknown because the majority of cases are not reported. The low reporting can be attributed to limited capacity of epidemiological surveillance and laboratories, as well as social, political, and economic disincentives for reporting. We previously estimated 2.8 million cases and 91,000 deaths annually due to cholera in 51 endemic countries. A major limitation in our previous estimate was that the endemic and non-endemic countries were defined based on the countries’ reported cholera cases. We overcame the limitation with the use of a spatial modelling technique in defining endemic countries, and accordingly updated the estimates of the global burden of cholera. Methods/Principal Findings: Countries were classified as cholera endemic, cholera non-endemic, or cholera-free based on whether a spatial regression model predicted an incidence rate over a certain threshold in at least three of five years (2008-2012). The at-risk populations were calculated for each country based on the percent of the country without sustainable access to improved sanitation facilities. Incidence rates from population-based published studies were used to calculate the estimated annual number of cases in endemic countries. The number of annual cholera deaths was calculated using inverse variance-weighted average case-fatality rate (CFRs) from literature-based CFR estimates. We found that approximately 1.3 billion people are at risk for cholera in endemic countries. An estimated 2.86 million cholera cases (uncertainty range: 1.3m-4.0m) occur annually in endemic countries. Among these cases, there are an estimated 95,000 deaths (uncertainty range: 21,000-143,000). Conclusion/Significance: The global burden of cholera remains high. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for the majority of this burden. Our findings can inform programmatic decision-making for cholera control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is increasing interest to use oral cholera vaccination as an additional strategy to water and sanitation interventions against endemic and epidemic cholera. There are two internationally-available and WHO-prequalified oral cholera vaccines: an inactivated vaccine containing killed whole-cells of V. cholerae O1 with recombinant cholera toxin B-subunit (WC/rBS) and a bivalent inactivated vaccine containing killed whole cells of V. cholerae O1 and V. cholerae O139 (BivWC). The efficacy, effectiveness, direct and indirect (herd) protection conferred by WC/rBS and BivWC are well established. Yet governments may need local evidence of vaccine impact to justify and scale-up mass oral cholera vaccination campaigns. We discuss various approaches to assess oral cholera vaccine protection, which may be useful to policymakers and public health workers considering deployment and evaluation of the vaccine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite advancement of our knowledge, cholera remains a public health concern. During March-April 2010, a large cholera outbreak afflicted the eastern part of Kolkata, India. The quantification of importance of socio-environmental factors in the risk of cholera, and the calculation of the risk is fundamental for deploying vaccination strategies. Here we investigate socio-environmental characteristics between high and low risk areas as well as the potential impact of vaccination on the spatial occurrence of the disease. Methods and Findings: The study area comprised three wards of Kolkata Municipal Corporation. A mass cholera vaccination campaign was conducted in mid-2006 as the part of a clinical trial. Cholera cases and data of the trial to identify high risk areas for cholera were analyzed. We used a generalized additive model (GAM) to detect risk areas, and to evaluate the importance of socio-environmental characteristics between high and low risk areas. During the one-year pre-vaccination and two-year post-vaccination periods, 95 and 183 cholera cases were detected in 111,882 and 121,827 study participants, respectively. The GAM model predicts that high risk areas in the west part of the study area where the outbreak largely occurred. High risk areas in both periods were characterized by poor people, use of unsafe water, and proximity to canals used as the main drainage for rain and waste water. Cholera vaccine uptake was significantly lower in the high risk areas compared to low risk areas. Conclusion: The study shows that even a parsimonious model like GAM predicts high risk areas where cholera outbreaks largely occurred. This is useful for indicating where interventions would be effective in controlling the disease risk. Data showed that vaccination decreased the risk of infection. Overall, the GAM-based risk map is useful for policymakers, especially those from countries where cholera remains to be endemic with periodic outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examined the impact of in-situ climatic and marine environmental variability on cholera incidence in an endemic area of Bangladesh and developed a forecasting model for understanding the magnitude of incidence. Diarrhoea surveillance data collected between 1988 and 2001were obtained from a field research site in Matlab, Bangladesh. Cholera cases were defined as Vibrio cholerae O1 isolated from faecal specimens of patients who sought care at treatment centres serving the Matlab population. Cholera incidence for 168 months was correlated with remotely-sensed sea-surface temperature (SST) and in-situ environmental data, including rainfall and ambient temperature. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used for determining the impact of climatic and environmental variability on cholera incidence and evaluating the ability of the model to forecast the magnitude of cholera. There were 4,157 cholera cases during the study period, with an average of 1.4 cases per 1,000 people. Since monthly cholera cases varied significantly by month, it was necessary to stabilize the variance of cholera incidence by computing the natural logarithm to conduct the analysis. The SARIMA model shows temporal clustering of cholera at one- and 12-month lags. There was a 6% increase in cholera incidence with a minimum temperature increase of one degree celsius in the current month. For increase of SST by one degree celsius, there was a 25% increase in the cholera incidence at currrent month and 18% increase in the cholera incidence at two months. Rainfall did not influenc to cause variation in cholera incidence during the study period. The model forecast the fluctuation of cholera incidence in Matlab reasonably well (Root mean square error, RMSE: 0.108). Thus, the ambient and sea-surface temperature-based model could be used in forecasting cholera outbreaks in Matlab. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To estimate the global burden of cholera using population-based incidence data and reports. Methods Countries with a recent history of cholera were classified as endemic or non-endemic, depending on whether they had reported cholera cases in at least three of the five most recent years. The percentages of the population in each country that lacked access to improved sanitation were used to compute the populations at risk for cholera, and incidence rates from published studies were applied to groups of countries to estimate the annual number of cholera cases in endemic countries. The estimates of cholera cases in non-endemic countries were based on the average numbers of cases reported from 2000 to 2008. Literature-based estimates of cholera case-fatality rates (CFRs) were used to compute the variance-weighted average cholera CFRs for estimating the number of cholera deaths. Findings About 1.4 billion people are at risk for cholera in endemic countries. An estimated 2.8 million cholera cases occur annually in such countries (uncertainty range: 1.4-4.3) and an estimated 87 000 cholera cases occur in non-endemic countries. The incidence is estimated to be greatest in children less than 5 years of age. Every year about 91 000 people (uncertainty range: 28 000 to 142 000) die of cholera in endemic countries and 2500 people die of the disease in non-endemic countries. Conclusion The global burden of cholera, as determined through a systematic review with clearly stated assumptions, is high. The findings of this study provide a contemporary basis for planning public health interventions to control cholera. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Live oral cholera vaccines may protect against cholera in a manner similar to natural cholera infections. However, information on which to base these vaccines is limited. Methods. The study was conducted in a cholera-endemic population in Bangladesh. Patients with cholera (index patients) detected between 1991 and 2000 were age-matched to 4 cholera-free controls and then followed up during the subsequent 3 years. Results. El Tor cholera was associated with a 65% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37%-81%; P < .001) lower risk of a subsequent El Tor episode. Reduction of the risk of subsequent El Tor cholera was similar for children <5 years and for older persons and was sustained during all 3 years of follow-up. Having El Tor Inaba cholera was associated with lower risks of both El Tor Inaba and El Tor Ogawa cholera, but having El Tor Ogawa cholera was associated only with a reduced risk of El Tor Ogawa cholera. O139 cholera was associated with a 63% (95% CI, -61% to 92%; P = .18) lower risk of subsequent O139 cholera, but there was no evidence of cross-protection between the O1 and O139 serogroups. Conclusions. Live oral cholera vaccines designed to protect against the O1 and O139 serogroups should contain at least the Inaba serotype and strains of both serogroups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study uses social network and spatial analytical methods simultaneously to understand cholera transmission in rural Bangladesh. Both have been used separately to incorporate context into health studies, but using them together is a new and recent approach. Data include a spatially referenced longitudinal demographic database consisting of approximately 200,000 people and a database of all laboratory-confirmed cholera cases from 1983 to 2003. A complete kinship-based network linking households is created, and distancematrices are also constructed to model spatial relationships. A spatial error-social effects model tested for cholera clustering in socially linked households while accounting for spatial factors. Results show that there was social clustering in five out of twenty-one years while accounting for both known and unknown environmental variables. This suggests that environmental cholera transmission is significant and social networks also influence transmission, but not as consistently. Simultaneous spatial and social network analysis may improve understanding of disease transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Vibrio cholerae are known to be normal inhabitants of surface water. However, the environmental niches of the different strains of cholera are not well known, and therefore, populations at risk for cholera outbreaks cannot be clearly identified. Methods: This study identifies environmental risk factors for cholera caused by V. cholerae O1 El Tor and O139 and environmental niches of the two strains present in Matlab, a cholera endemic area of Bangladesh. The study year was 1993, the year that the O139 strain first appeared in the study area. Patients who had either strain of cholera identified in a laboratory were included in the study. A geographic information system was used to map the household locations of the patients, to describe the human sanitary environment and population density, and to address potential anthropogenic and environmental risk factors of the disease. Spatial point pattern and exploratory spatial data analysis techniques were used to define the environmental niches of the two cholera strains. Results: The study suggests the niches of O1 El Tor and O139 strains of V. cholerae appear to be similar, based on common environmental risk factors. Conclusions: The results of this study support a theory that O1 El Tor could possibly be replaced by the newer O139 strain in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cholera increases the risk of harmful effects on foetuses. We prospectively followed pregnant women unaware of their pregnancy status who received a study agent in a clinical trial evaluating the association between exposure to an oral cholera vaccine (OCV) and foetal survival.Methods: Study participants were selected from a randomized placebo-controlled trial conducted in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The vaccination campaign was conducted between January 10 and February 4, 2014. We enrolled women who were exposed to an OCV or placebo during pregnancy (Cohort 1) and women who were pregnant after the vaccination was completed (Cohort 2). Our primary endpoint was pregnancy loss (spontaneous miscarriage or stillbirth), and the secondary endpoints were preterm delivery and low birth weight. We employed a log-binomial regression to calculate the relative risk of having adverse outcomes among OCV recipients compared to that among placebo recipients.Result: There were 231 OCV and 234 placebo recipients in Cohort 1 and 277 OCV and 299 placebo recipients in Cohort 2. In Cohort 1, the incidence of pregnancy loss was 113/1000 and 115/1000 among OCV and placebo recipients, respectively. The adjusted relative risk for pregnancy loss was 0.97 (95% CI: 0.58-1.61; p = 0.91) in Cohort 1. We did not observe any variation in the risk of pregnancy loss between the two cohorts. The risks for preterm delivery and low birth weight were not significantly different between the groups in both cohorts.Conclusions: Our study provides additional evidence that exposure to an OCV during pregnancy does not increase the risk of pregnancy loss, preterm delivery, or low birth weight, suggesting that pregnant women in cholera-affected regions should not be excluded in a mass vaccination campaign.Trial Registration: The study is registered at ( http://clinicaltrials.gov ). Identifier: NCT02027207 . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yemen cholera outbreak has been driven by years of conflict and has now become the largest in epidemiologically recorded history with more than 1.2 million cases since the beginning of the outbreak in April, 2017. In this report we review and discuss the cholera management strategies applied by the major international humanitarian health organizations present in Yemen. We find the response by the organizations examined to have been more focused on case management than on outbreak prevention. Oral Cholera Vaccines (OCVs) were not delivered until nearly 16 months into the outbreak. A recent scale-up of the global OCV stockpile will hopefully allow for rapid mass deployment of the OCV in future humanitarian emergencies. Continuous funding to this stockpile will be crucial to maintain this option for prevention and control of cholera outbreaks. Of equal importance will be the timely recognition of the need for mass OCV deployment and development of more specific, comprehensive and actionable evidence-based frameworks to help guide this decision, however difficult this may be. The outbreak highlights the importance for international humanitarian health organizations to have a continuous discussion about whether and to what extent they should increase their focus on pre-emptively addressing the environmental determinants of communicable diseases in humanitarian emergencies. Strong advocacy from the public health community for peace and the protection of human health, by bringing to attention the public health impacts of armed conflict and keeping the world's political leaders accountable to their actions, will remain crucial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Matlab, Bangladesh was a well-documented cholera 'hotspot' – an area of regularly recurrent cholera with a high annual incidence – for many decades. • In recent years, cholera has declined to negligible levels in Matlab, despite persistently high rates in many areas of Bangladesh and despite increasing local ambient and sea surface temperatures, which favor a high cholera incidence. • The decline occurred following the provision of low-cost tubewells for the supply of water and inexpensive sanitary latrines to a high proportion of the population. • These observations lend optimism to the success of the World Health Organization current global initiative to end preventable cholera by 2030. Cholera remains a major public health threat in low- and middle-income countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) has recently launched a global initiative to end preventable cholera by 2030. Key to the success of this initiative will be the elimination of cholera transmission in cholera 'hotspots' with regularly recurrent disease; this can be achieved via improved surveillance to define hotspot populations, through the use of oral cholera vaccines, and through the implementation of improved water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH). This study was performed to analyze the trend in cholera incidence during the years 1974–2018 in Matlab, Bangladesh (defined population of about 200 000) that has been recognized as one of the world's cholera hotspots. During this period, Matlab has maintained a demographically defined population and comprehensive, culture-based surveillance for cholera, supplemented by periodic surveys to characterize the socioeconomic status of the population, as well as water sources and facilities for defecation. Cholera transmission has nearly been eliminated in Matlab, despite a continuing high cholera burden in many other parts of Bangladesh and despite trends of increasing ambient and sea surface temperatures, which are known to increase cholera incidence. Concomitantly, the socioeconomic status of the population has increased modestly, and the use of simple tubewells for drinking water has reached 95% and the installation of sanitary latrines has reached 85%. The factors responsible for the decline in cholera are difficult to pinpoint precisely, but this decline has occurred with the installation of inexpensive improvements in water sources and latrines and despite environmental factors that should have augmented cholera incidence. These observations lend optimism to the current global initiative to end preventable cholera by 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kenya has experienced cholera outbreaks since 1971, with the most recent wave beginning in late 2014. Between 2015–2020, 32 of 47 counties reported 30,431 suspected cholera cases. The Global Task Force for Cholera Control (GTFCC) developed a Global Roadmap for Ending Cholera by 2030, which emphasizes the need to target multi-sectoral interventions in priority cholera burden hotspots. This study utilizes the GTFCC's hotspot method to identify hotspots in Kenya at the county and sub-county administrative levels from 2015 through 2020. 32 of 47 (68.1%) counties reported cholera cases during this time while only 149 of 301 (49.5%) sub-counties reported cholera cases. The analysis identifies hotspots based on the mean annual incidence (MAI) over the past five-year period and cholera's persistence in the area. Applying a MAI threshold of 90th percentile and the median persistence at both the county and sub-county levels, we identified 13 high risk sub-counties from 8 counties, including the 3 high risk counties of Garissa, Tana River and Wajir. This demonstrates that several sub-counties are high level hotspots while their counties are not. In addition, when cases reported by county versus sub-county hotspot risk are compared, 1.4 million people overlapped in the areas identified as both high-risk county and high-risk sub-county. However, assuming that finer scale data is more accurate, 1.6 million high risk sub-county people would have been misclassified as medium risk with a county-level analysis. Furthermore, an additional 1.6 million people would have been classified as living in high-risk in a county-level analysis when at the sub-county level, they were medium, low or no-risk sub-counties. This results in 3.2 million people being misclassified when county level analysis is utilized rather than a more-focused sub-county level analysis. This analysis highlights the need for more localized risk analyses to target cholera intervention and prevention efforts towards the populations most vulnerable. Author summary: Kenya has experienced recurrent cholera outbreaks from 1971 through today and constraints on resources make it essential to target multi-sectoral interventions to high priority areas. Using surveillance data from 2015–2020, this study identifies high priority areas for cholera intervention in Kenya following guidance from the Global Task Force on Cholera Control. We identified that roughly 3 million people (6% of the population) in 13 sub-counties live in high priority areas in Kenya, where the mean annual incidence exceeded 70 cases per 100,000 population and over 35% of weeks reported at least one suspected cholera case. Further, 1.6 million people living in high priority sub-counties would have been de-prioritized had the analysis been performed only at the county scale. Cholera interventions in Kenya should target high priority sub-counties, and future countries undergoing cholera control planning should carefully consider operational implementation when determining the spatial scale of their prioritization analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Cholera is a severe diarrheal disease and remains a global threat to public health. Climate change and variability have the potential to increase the distribution and magnitude of cholera outbreaks. However, the effect of heatwave on the occurrence of cholera at individual level is still unclear. It is also unknown whether the local vegetation could potentially mitigate the effects of extreme heat on cholera outbreaks. In this study, we designed a case-crossover study to examine the association between the risk of cholera and heatwaves as well as the modification effects of rainfall and tree cover. The study was conducted in Matlab, a cholera endemic area of rural Bangladesh, where cholera case data were collected between January 1983 and April 2009. The association between the risk of cholera and heatwaves was examined using conditional logistic regression models. The results showed that there was a higher risk of cholera two days after heatwaves (OR = 1.53, 95% CI: 1.07–2.19) during wet days (rainfall > 0 mm). For households with less medium-dense tree cover, the heatwave after a 2-day lag was positively associated (OR = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.01–3.22) with the risk of cholera during wet days. However, for households with more medium-dense tree cover, the association between the risk of cholera and heatwave in 2-day lag was not significant. These findings suggest that heatwaves might promote the occurrence of cholera, while this relationship was modified by rainfall and tree cover. Further investigations are needed to explore major mechanisms underlying the association between heatwaves and cholera as well as the beneficial effects of tree cover. Highlights • Relationship between heatwave and cholera was examined at the individual level. • Heatwave after a 2-day lag was positively associated with cholera risk in wet days. • Tree cover could mitigate the adverse effect of heatwave on cholera. • Further studies are needed to explore mechanisms of the effect of heatwaves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: During the development of a vaccine, identification of the correlates of protection is of paramount importance for establishing an objective criterion for the protective performance of the vaccine. However, the ascertainment of correlates of immunity conferred by any vaccine is a difficult task. Methods: While conducting a phase three double-blind, cluster-randomized, placebo-controlled trial of a bivalent killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccine in Kolkata, we evaluated the immunogenicity of the vaccine in a subset of participants. Randomly chosen participants (recipients of vaccine or placebo) were invited to provide blood samples at baseline, 14 days after the second dose and one year after the first dose. At these time points, serum geometric mean titers (GMT) of vibriocidal antibodies and seroconversion rates for vaccine and placebo arms were calculated and compared across the age strata (1 to 5 years, 5 to 15 years and more than 15 years) as well as for all age groups. Results: Out of 137 subjects included in analysis, 69 were vaccinees and 68 received placebo. There were 5•7 and 5•8 geometric mean fold (GMF) rises in titers to Vibrio cholerae Inaba and Ogawa, respectively at 14 days after the second dose, with 57% and 61% of vaccinees showing a four-fold or greater titer rise, respectively. After one year, the titers to Inaba and Ogawa remained 1•7 and 2•8 fold higher, respectively, compared to baseline. Serum vibriocidal antibody response to V. cholerae O139 was much lower than that to Inaba or Ogawa. No significant differences in the GMF-rises were observed among the age groups. Conclusions: The reformulated oral cholera vaccine induced a statistically significant anti-O1 Inaba and O1 Ogawa vibriocidal antibody response 14 days after vaccination, which although declined after one year remained significantly higher than baseline. Despite this decline, the vaccine remained protective five years after vaccination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is not much information on the differences in clinical, epidemiological and spatial characteristics of diarrhea due to V. cholerae and V. parahaemolyticus from non-coastal areas. We investigated the differences in clinical, epidemiological and spatial characteristics of the two Vibrio species in the urban slums of Kolkata, India. Methods: The data of a cluster randomized cholera vaccine trial were used. We restricted the analysis to clusters assigned to placebo. Survival analysis of the time to the first episode was used to analyze risk factors for V. parahaemolyticus diarrhea or cholera. A spatial scan test was used to identify high risk areas for cholera and for V. parahaemolyticus diarrhea. Results: In total, 54,519 people from the placebo clusters were assembled. The incidence of cholera (1.30/1000/year) was significantly higher than that of V. parahaemolyticus diarrhea (0.63/1000/year). Cholera incidence was inversely related to age, whereas the risk of V. parahaemolyticus diarrhea was age-independent. The seasonality of diarrhea due to the two Vibrio species was similar. Cholera was distinguished by a higher frequency of severe dehydration, and V. parahaemolyticus diarrhea was by abdominal pain. Hindus and those who live in household not using boiled or treated water were more likely to have V. parahaemolyticus diarrhea. Young age, low socioeconomic status, and living closer to a project healthcare facility were associated with an increased risk for cholera. The high risk area for cholera differed from the high risk area for V. parahaemolyticus diarrhea. Conclusion: We report coexistence of the two vibrios in the slums of Kolkata. The two etiologies of diarrhea had a similar seasonality but had distinguishing clinical features. The risk factors and the high risk areas for the two diseases differ from one another suggesting different modes of transmission of these two pathogens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global burden of cholera is increasing, with the majority (60%) of the cases occurring in sub-Saharan Africa. In Zambia, widespread cholera outbreaks have occurred since 1977, predominantly in the capital city of Lusaka. During both the 2016 and 2018 outbreaks, the Ministry of Health implemented cholera vaccination in addition to other preventative and control measures, to stop the spread and control the outbreak. Given the limitations in vaccine availability and the logistical support required for vaccination, oral cholera vaccine (OCV) is now recommended for use in the high risk areas ("hotspots") for cholera. Hence, the aim of this study was to identify areas with an increased risk of cholera in Zambia. Retrospective cholera case data from 2008 to 2017 was obtained from the Ministry of Health, Department of Public Health and Disease Surveillance. The Zambian Central Statistical Office provided district-level population data, socioeconomic and water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) indicators. To identify districts at high risk, we performed a discrete Poisson-based space-time scan statistic to account for variations in cholera risk across both space and time over a 10-year study period. A zero-inflated negative binomial regression model was employed to identify the district level risk factors for cholera. The risk map was generated by classifying the relative risk of cholera in each district, as obtained from the space-scan test statistic. In total, 34,950 cases of cholera were reported in Zambia between 2008 and 2017. Cholera cases varied spatially by year. During the study period, Lusaka District had the highest burden of cholera, with 29,080 reported cases. The space-time scan statistic identified 16 districts to be at a significantly higher risk of having cholera. The relative risk of having cholera in these districts was significantly higher and ranged from 1.25 to 78.87 times higher when compared to elsewhere in the country. Proximity to waterbodies was the only factor associated with the increased risk for cholera (P<0.05). This study provides a basis for the cholera elimination program in Zambia. Outside Lusaka, the majority of high risk districts identified were near the border with the DRC, Tanzania, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. This suggests that cholera in Zambia may be linked to movement of people from neighboring areas of cholera endemicity. A collaborative intervention program implemented in concert with neighboring countries could be an effective strategy for elimination of cholera in Zambia, while also reducing rates at a regional level. Author summary: Zambia has experienced cholera outbreaks since 1977. It is a landlocked country bordered by the DRC and Tanzania to the north, Malawi and Mozambique to the east and Zimbabwe to the south; all of which experience regular cholera outbreaks. The Zambian Ministry of Health included cholera vaccination, in addition to standard cholera control measures, e.g., clean water, improving sanitation and promoting hygiene to counter a cholera outbreak in 2016. The implementation of these control measures is in line with Zambia's National Cholera Eliminating Plan (NCEP) by 2025 and is also consistent with guidance by the Global Task Force on Cholera Control's (GTFCC) global roadmap to end cholera by 2030. In both plans, the identification of high risk areas known as cholera "hotspots" is necessary to prioritize OCV deployment while also key in identifying areas where improvements are needed including surveillance systems and effective WASH improvements. In this study, we retrospectively analyzed district-level cholera data from 2008 to 2017. Sixteen of 72 districts were identified to have an increased risk of cholera using a geostatistical model. Outside of Lusaka district, which is a primary hotspot, the additional hotspot districts share borders with Zambia's neighboring countries. To achieve cholera elimination in Zambia by 2025, a regional strategy involving each of the countries bordering will be needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This open-label study assessed the safety and immunogenicity of two doses (14 days apart) of an indigenously manufactured, killed, bivalent (Vibrio cholerae O1 and O139), whole-cell oral cholera vaccine (SHANCHOL; Shantha Biotechnics) in healthy adults (n = 100) and children (n = 100) in a cholera endemic area (Vellore, South India) to fulfill post-licensure regulatory requirements and post-World Health Organization (WHO) prequalification commitments. Safety and reactogenicity were assessed, and seroconversion rates (i.e. proportion of participants with a ≥ 4-fold rise from baseline in serum vibriocidal antibody titers against V. cholerae O1 Inaba, O1 Ogawa and O139, respectively) were determined 14 days after each vaccine dose. No serious adverse events were reported during the study. Commonly reported solicited adverse events were headache and general ill feeling. Seroconversion rates after the first and second dose in adults were 67.7% and 55.2%, respectively, against O1 Inaba; 47.9% and 45.8% against O1 Ogawa; and 19.8% and 20.8% against O139. In children, seroconversion rates after the first and second dose were 80.2% and 68.8%, respectively, against O1 Inaba; 72.9% and 67.7% against O1 Ogawa; and 26.0% and 18.8% against O139. The geometric mean titers against O1 Inaba, O1 Ogawa, and O139 in both adults and children were significantly higher after each vaccine dose compared to baseline titers (P < 0.001; for both age groups after each dose versus baseline). The seroconversion rates for O1 Inaba, O1 Ogawa, and O139 in both age groups were similar to those in previous studies with the vaccine. In conclusion, the killed, bivalent, whole-cell oral cholera vaccine has a good safety and reactogenicity profile, and is immunogenic in healthy adults and children. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov ; CTRI/2012/01/002354. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyses of stool from patients with acute watery diarrhea (AWD) using sensitive molecular diagnostics have challenged whether fecal microbiological cultures have acceptably high sensitivity for cholera diagnosis. If true, these findings imply that current estimates of the global burden of cholera, which rely largely on culture-confirmation, may be underestimates. We conducted a vaccine probe study to evaluate this possibility, assessing whether an effective killed oral cholera vaccine (OCV) tested in a field trial in a cholera-endemic population conferred protection against cholera culture-negative AWD, with the assumption that if cultures are indeed insensitive, OCV protection in such cases should be detectable. We re-analysed the data of a Phase III individually-randomized placebo-controlled efficacy trial of killed OCVs conducted in Matlab, Bangladesh in 1985. We calculated the protective efficacy (PE) of a killed whole cell-only (WC-only) OCV against first-episodes of cholera culture-negative AWD during two years of post-dosing follow-up. In secondary analyses, we evaluated PE against cholera culture-negative AWD by age at vaccination, season of onset, and disease severity. In this trial 50,770 people received at least 2 complete doses of either WC-only OCV or placebo, and 791 first episodes of AWD were reported during the follow-up period, of which 365 were culture-positive for Vibrio cholerae O1. Of the 426 culture-negative AWD episodes, 215 occurred in the WC group and 211 occurred in the placebo group (adjusted PE = -1.7%; 95%CI -23.0 to 13.9%, p = 0.859). No measurable PE of OCV was observed against all or severe cholera culture-negative AWD when measured overall or by age and season subgroups. In this OCV probe study we detected no vaccine protection against AWD episodes for which fecal cultures were negative for Vibrio cholera O1. Results from this setting suggest that fecal cultures from patients with AWD were highly sensitive for cholera episodes that were etiologically attributable to this pathogen. Similar analyses of other OCV randomized controlled trials are recommended to corroborate these findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cholera remains an important public health problem in major cities in Bangladesh, especially in slum areas. In response to growing interest among local policymakers to control this disease, this study estimated the impact and cost-effectiveness of preventive cholera vaccination over a ten-year period in a high-risk slum population in Dhaka to inform decisions about the use of oral cholera vaccines as a key tool in reducing cholera risk in such populations. Methodology/Principal findings: Assuming use of a two-dose killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccine to be produced locally, the number of cholera cases and deaths averted was estimated for three target group options (1–4 year olds, 1–14 year olds, and all persons 1+), using cholera incidence data from Dhaka, estimates of vaccination coverage rates from the literature, and a dynamic model of cholera transmission based on data from Matlab, which incorporates herd effects. Local estimates of vaccination costs minus savings in treatment costs, were used to obtain incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for one- and ten-dose vial sizes. Vaccinating 1–14 year olds every three years, combined with annual routine vaccination of children, would be the most cost-effective strategy, reducing incidence in this population by 45% (assuming 10% annual migration), and costing was $823 (2015 USD) for single dose vials and $591 (2015 USD) for ten-dose vials per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. Vaccinating all ages one year and above would reduce incidence by >90%, but would be 50% less cost-effective ($894–1,234/DALY averted). Limiting vaccination to 1–4 year olds would be the least cost-effective strategy (preventing only 7% of cases and costing $1,276-$1,731/DALY averted), due to the limited herd effects of vaccinating this small population and the lower vaccine efficacy in this age group. Conclusions/Significance: Providing cholera vaccine to slum populations in Dhaka through periodic vaccination campaigns would significantly reduce cholera incidence and inequities, and be especially cost-effective if all 1–14 year olds are targeted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Information on the impact of hygiene interventions on severe outcomes is limited. As a pre-specified secondary outcome of a cluster-randomized controlled trial among >400 000 low-income residents in Dhaka, Bangladesh, we examined the impact of cholera vaccination plus a behaviour change intervention on diarrhoea-associated hospitalization.Methods: Ninety neighbourhood clusters were randomly allocated into three areas: cholera-vaccine-only; vaccine-plus-behaviour-change (promotion of hand-washing with soap plus drinking water chlorination); and control. Study follow-up continued for 2 years after intervention began. We calculated cluster-adjusted diarrhoea-associated hospitalization rates using data we collected from nearby hospitals, and 6-monthly census data of all trial households.Results: A total of 429 995 people contributed 500 700 person-years of data (average follow-up 1.13 years). Vaccine coverage was 58% at the start of analysis but continued to drop due to population migration. In the vaccine-plus-behaviour-change area, water plus soap was present at 45% of hand-washing stations; 4% of households had detectable chlorine in stored drinking water. Hospitalization rates were similar across the study areas [events/1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval (CI), cholera-vaccine-only: 9.4 (95% CI: 8.3-10.6); vaccine-plus-behaviour-change: 9.6 (95% CI: 8.3-11.1); control: 9.7 (95% CI: 8.3-11.6)]. Cholera cases accounted for 7% of total number of diarrhoea-associated hospitalizations.Conclusions: Neither cholera vaccination alone nor cholera vaccination combined with behaviour-change intervention efforts measurably reduced diarrhoea-associated hospitalization in this highly mobile population, during a time when cholera accounted for a small fraction of diarrhoea episodes. Affordable community-level interventions that prevent infection from multiple pathogens by reliably separating faeces from the environment, food and water, with minimal behavioural demands on impoverished communities, remain an important area for research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genomic data generated from clinical Vibrio cholerae O1 isolates collected over a five year period in an area of Kolkata, India with seasonal cholera outbreaks allowed a detailed genetic analysis of serotype switching that occurred from Ogawa to Inaba and back to Ogawa. The change from Ogawa to Inaba resulted from mutational disruption of the methyltransferase encoded by the wbeT gene. Re-emergence of the Ogawa serotype was found to result either from expansion of an already existing Ogawa clade or reversion of the mutation in an Inaba clade. Our data suggests that such transitions are not random events but rather driven by as yet unidentified selection mechanisms based on differences in the structure of the O1 antigen or in the serotype-determining wbeT gene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite being a cholera-endemic country, data on cholera in the Philippines remain sparse. Knowing the areas where cholera is known to occur and the factors that lead to its occurrence will assist in planning preventive measures and disaster mitigation. Methods: Using sentinel surveillance data, PubMed and ProMED searches covering information from 2008–2013 and event-based surveillance reports from 2010–2013, we assessed the epidemiology of cholera in the Philippines. Using spatial log regression, we assessed the role of water, sanitation and population density on the incidence of cholera. Results and Discussion: We identified 12 articles from ProMED and none from PubMed that reported on cholera in the Philippines from 2008 to 2013. Data from ProMed and surveillance revealed 42,071 suspected and confirmed cholera cases reported from 2008 to 2013, among which only 5,006 were confirmed. 38 (47%) of 81 provinces and metropolitan regions reported at least one confirmed case of cholera and 32 (40%) reported at least one suspected case. The overall case fatality ratio in sentinel sites was 0.62%, but was 2% in outbreaks. All age groups were affected. Using both confirmed and suspected cholera cases, the average annual incidence in 2010–2013 was 9.1 per 100,000 population. Poor access to improved sanitation was consistently associated with higher cholera incidence. Paradoxically, access to improved water sources was associated with higher cholera incidence using both suspected and confirmed cholera data sources. This finding may have been due to the breakdown in the infrastructure and non-chlorination of water supplies, emphasizing the need to maintain public water systems. Conclusion: Our findings confirm that cholera affects a large proportion of the provinces in the country. Identifying areas most at risk for cholera will support the development and implementation of policies to minimize the morbidity and mortality due to this disease. Author Summary: Cholera has been increasingly reported in the past decade. It is most feared because of its tendency to spread rapidly resulting in deaths in a short time, if appropriate treatment is not provided. For fear of trade and travel sanctions, countries were disinclined to report cholera, unless large outbreaks ensued. Although countries in Asia have been reporting cholera, it is believed that more cases are not being identified and instead being reported as acute watery diarrhea. Cholera is endemic in the Philippines however data on cholera in the country remained sparse, until 2008 when surveillance was strengthened. From 2008 to 2013, 42,071 suspected and confirmed cholera cases were reported in 87% of provinces and metropolitan areas in the country, confirming the endemicity of cholera in the Philippines. Poor access to improved sanitation was associated with cholera. On the other hand despite access to improved water sources, cholera remains to be seen. The latter is most probably due to the breakdown and non-chlorination of water systems. We identified areas where cholera has been known to occur in the Philippines, this will assist in the development and implementation of policies to minimize the morbidity and mortality due to this disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite being a cholera-endemic country, data on cholera in the Philippines remain sparse. Knowing the areas where cholera is known to occur and the factors that lead to its occurrence will assist in planning preventive measures and disaster mitigation. Methods: Using sentinel surveillance data, PubMed and ProMED searches covering information from 2008–2013 and event-based surveillance reports from 2010–2013, we assessed the epidemiology of cholera in the Philippines. Using spatial log regression, we assessed the role of water, sanitation and population density on the incidence of cholera. Results and Discussion: We identified 12 articles from ProMED and none from PubMed that reported on cholera in the Philippines from 2008 to 2013. Data from ProMed and surveillance revealed 42,071 suspected and confirmed cholera cases reported from 2008 to 2013, among which only 5,006 were confirmed. 38 (47%) of 81 provinces and metropolitan regions reported at least one confirmed case of cholera and 32 (40%) reported at least one suspected case. The overall case fatality ratio in sentinel sites was 0.62%, but was 2% in outbreaks. All age groups were affected. Using both confirmed and suspected cholera cases, the average annual incidence in 2010–2013 was 9.1 per 100,000 population. Poor access to improved sanitation was consistently associated with higher cholera incidence. Paradoxically, access to improved water sources was associated with higher cholera incidence using both suspected and confirmed cholera data sources. This finding may have been due to the breakdown in the infrastructure and non-chlorination of water supplies, emphasizing the need to maintain public water systems. Conclusion: Our findings confirm that cholera affects a large proportion of the provinces in the country. Identifying areas most at risk for cholera will support the development and implementation of policies to minimize the morbidity and mortality due to this disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Anna Lena Lopez and colleagues give an overview of the cholera situation in Vietnam and discuss how an oral cholera vaccine was developed and used as a component of a public health strategy against the disease. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The substantial morbidity and mortality associated with recent cholera outbreaks in Haiti and Zimbabwe, as well as with cholera endemicity in countries throughout Asia and Africa, make a compelling case for supplementary cholera control measures in addition to existing interventions. Clinical trials conducted in Kolkata, India, have led to World Health Organization (WHO)-prequalification of Shanchol, an oral cholera vaccine (OCV) with a demonstrated 65% efficacy at 5 years post-vaccination. However, before this vaccine is widely used in endemic areas or in areas at risk of outbreaks, as recommended by the WHO, policymakers will require empirical evidence on its implementation and delivery costs in public health programs. The objective of the present report is to describe the organization, vaccine coverage, and delivery costs of mass vaccination with a new, less expensive OCV (Shanchol) using existing public health infrastructure in Odisha, India, as a model. Methods: All healthy, non-pregnant residents aged 1 year and above residing in selected villages of the Satyabadi block (Puri district, Odisha, India) were invited to participate in a mass vaccination campaign using two doses of OCV. Prior to the campaign, a de jure census, micro-planning for vaccination and social mobilization activities were implemented. Vaccine coverage for each dose was ascertained as a percentage of the censused population. The direct vaccine delivery costs were estimated by reviewing project expenditure records and by interviewing key personnel. Results: The mass vaccination was conducted during May and June, 2011, in two phases. In each phase, two vaccine doses were given 14 days apart. Sixty-two vaccination booths, staffed by 395 health workers/volunteers, were established in the community. For the censused population, 31,552 persons (61% of the target population) received the first dose and 23,751 (46%) of these completed their second dose, with a drop-out rate of 25% between the two doses. Higher coverage was observed among females and among 6–17 year-olds. Vaccine cost at market price (about US$1.85/dose) was the costliest item. The vaccine delivery cost was $0.49 per dose or $1.13 per fully vaccinated person. Discussion: This is the first undertaken project to collect empirical evidence on the use of Shanchol within a mass vaccination campaign using existing public health program resources. Our findings suggest that mass vaccination is feasible but requires detailed micro-planning. The vaccine and delivery cost is affordable for resource poor countries. Given that the vaccine is now WHO pre-qualified, evidence from this study should encourage oral cholera vaccine use in countries where cholera remains a public health problem. Author Summary: Cholera – an acute life-threatening diarrheal illness – continues to disrupt public health in resource poor countries. The devastating outbreaks in Haiti and Zimbabwe – to name just two of many occurrences – calls for the use of available oral cholera vaccines as an additional tool in the arsenal of cholera control measures. An oral cholera vaccine (Shanchol) has been licensed in India since 2009; however, there has only been limited use of this vaccine in government public health programs. A vaccination campaign using 2 doses of Shanchol was conducted in Odisha, India, during May and June, 2011, where 31,552 persons (61% of the target population) received the first dose and 23,751 of them completed their second dose. The vaccine delivery cost was $0.49 per dose. Through our findings and experience, we discuss the organization of the cholera vaccination campaign in Odisha, the challenges met for conducting the campaign and the strategies designed to overcome those challenges, and the delivery costs incurred in the use of this vaccine, the first of its kind, in a public health setting. We believe that evidence from this study is of significant interest and use to policymakers from countries where cholera remains a public health problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The substantial morbidity and mortality associated with recent cholera outbreaks in Haiti and Zimbabwe, as well as with cholera endemicity in countries throughout Asia and Africa, make a compelling case for supplementary cholera control measures in addition to existing interventions. Clinical trials conducted in Kolkata, India, have led to World Health Organization (WHO)-prequalification of Shanchol, an oral cholera vaccine (OCV) with a demonstrated 65% efficacy at 5 years post-vaccination. However, before this vaccine is widely used in endemic areas or in areas at risk of outbreaks, as recommended by the WHO, policymakers will require empirical evidence on its implementation and delivery costs in public health programs. The objective of the present report is to describe the organization, vaccine coverage, and delivery costs of mass vaccination with a new, less expensive OCV (Shanchol) using existing public health infrastructure in Odisha, India, as a model. Methods: All healthy, non-pregnant residents aged 1 year and above residing in selected villages of the Satyabadi block (Puri district, Odisha, India) were invited to participate in a mass vaccination campaign using two doses of OCV. Prior to the campaign, a de jure census, micro-planning for vaccination and social mobilization activities were implemented. Vaccine coverage for each dose was ascertained as a percentage of the censused population. The direct vaccine delivery costs were estimated by reviewing project expenditure records and by interviewing key personnel. Results: The mass vaccination was conducted during May and June, 2011, in two phases. In each phase, two vaccine doses were given 14 days apart. Sixty-two vaccination booths, staffed by 395 health workers/volunteers, were established in the community. For the censused population, 31,552 persons (61% of the target population) received the first dose and 23,751 (46%) of these completed their second dose, with a drop-out rate of 25% between the two doses. Higher coverage was observed among females and among 6–17 year-olds. Vaccine cost at market price (about US$1.85/dose) was the costliest item. The vaccine delivery cost was $0.49 per dose or $1.13 per fully vaccinated person. Discussion: This is the first undertaken project to collect empirical evidence on the use of Shanchol within a mass vaccination campaign using existing public health program resources. Our findings suggest that mass vaccination is feasible but requires detailed micro-planning. The vaccine and delivery cost is affordable for resource poor countries. Given that the vaccine is now WHO pre-qualified, evidence from this study should encourage oral cholera vaccine use in countries where cholera remains a public health problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Mass vaccinations are a main strategy in the deployment of oral cholera vaccines. Campaigns avoid giving vaccine to pregnant women because of the absence of safety data of the killed whole-cell oral cholera (rBS-WC) vaccine. Balancing this concern is the known higher risk of cholera and of complications of pregnancy should cholera occur in these women, as well as the lack of expected adverse events from a killed oral bacterial vaccine. Methodology/Principal Findings: From January to February 2009, a mass rBS-WC vaccination campaign of persons over two years of age was conducted in an urban and a rural area (population 51,151) in Zanzibar. Pregnant women were advised not to participate in the campaign. More than nine months after the last dose of the vaccine was administered, we visited all women between 15 and 50 years of age living in the study area. The outcome of pregnancies that were inadvertently exposed to at least one oral cholera vaccine dose and those that were not exposed was evaluated. 13,736 (94%) of the target women in the study site were interviewed. 1,151 (79%) of the 1,453 deliveries in 2009 occurred during the period when foetal exposure to the vaccine could have occurred. 955 (83%) out of these 1,151 mothers had not been vaccinated; the remaining 196 (17%) mothers had received at least one dose of the oral cholera vaccine. There were no statistically significant differences in the odds ratios for birth outcomes among the exposed and unexposed pregnancies. Conclusions/Significance: We found no statistically significant evidence of a harmful effect of gestational exposure to the rBS-WC vaccine. These findings, along with the absence of a rational basis for expecting a risk from this killed oral bacterial vaccine, are reassuring but the study had insufficient power to detect infrequent events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To define mortality patterns in an urban slum in Kolkata, India, in the context of a cholera and typhoid fever project. Methods: In a well-defined population that was under surveillance for 18 months, we followed a dynamic cohort of 63 788 residents whose households were visited monthly by community health workers to identify deaths. Trained physicians performed verbal autopsies and experienced senior physicians assigned the primary cause of death according to the International classification of diseases, 10th edition. We tabulated causes of death in accordance with Global Burden of Disease 2000 categories and assessed overall and cause-specific mortality rates per age group and gender. Findings: During 87 921 person-years of follow-up, we recorded 544 deaths. This gave an overall mortality rate of 6.2 per 1000 person-years. We assigned a cause to 89% (482/544) of the deaths. The leading causes of death, in descending order, were cardiovascular diseases (especially among adults aged over 40 years), cancer, respiratory ailments and digestive disorders. Most deaths in children under 5 years of age were caused by tuberculosis, respiratory infections and diarrhoeal diseases. Conclusion: Although the most common causes of death in children were infectious, non-communicable diseases were predominant among adults. There is a need for continuing interventions against infectious diseases in addition to new and innovative strategies to combat non-infectious conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The seasonality of cholera is described in various study areas throughout the world. However, no study examines how temporal cycles of the disease vary around the world or reviews its hypothesized causes. This paper reviews the literature on the seasonality of cholera and describes its temporal cycles by compiling and analyzing 32 years of global cholera data. This paper also provides a detailed literature review on regional patterns and environmental and climatic drivers of cholera patterns. Data, Methods, and Results: Cholera data are compiled from 1974 to 2005 from the World Health Organization Weekly Epidemiological Reports, a database that includes all reported cholera cases in 140 countries. The data are analyzed to measure whether season, latitude, and their interaction are significantly associated with the country-level number of outbreaks in each of the 12 preceding months using separate negative binomial regression models for northern, southern, and combined hemispheres. Likelihood ratios tests are used to determine the model of best fit. The results suggest that cholera outbreaks demonstrate seasonal patterns in higher absolute latitudes, but closer to the equator, cholera outbreaks do not follow a clear seasonal pattern. Conclusion: The findings suggest that environmental and climatic factors partially control the temporal variability of cholera. These results also indirectly contribute to the growing debate about the effects of climate change and global warming. As climate change threatens to increase global temperature, resulting rises in sea levels and temperatures may influence the temporal fluctuations of cholera, potentially increasing the frequency and duration of cholera outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In preparation of vaccines trials to estimate protection against shigellosis and cholera we conducted a two-year community-based surveillance study in an impoverished area of North Jakarta which provided updated information on the disease burden in the area. Methods: We conducted a two-year community-based surveillance study from August 2001 to July 2003 in an impoverished area of North Jakarta to assess the burden of diarrhoea, shigellosis, and cholera. At participating health care providers, a case report form was completed and stool sample collected from cases presenting with diarrhoea. Results: Infants had the highest incidences of diarrhoea (759/1 000/year) and cholera (4/1 000/ year). Diarrhea incidence was significantly higher in boys under 5 years (387/1 000/year) than girls under 5 years (309/1 000/year; p < 0.001). Children aged 1 to 2 years had the highest incidence of shigellosis (32/1 000/year). Shigella flexneri was the most common Shigella species isolated and 73% to 95% of these isolates were resistant to ampicillin, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, chloramphenicol and tetracycline but remain susceptible to nalidixic acid, ciprofloxacin, and ceftriaxone. We found an overall incidence of cholera of 0.5/1 000/year. Cholera was most common in children, with the highest incidence at 4/1 000/year in those less than 1 year of age. Of the 154 V. cholerae O1 isolates, 89 (58%) were of the El Tor Ogawa serotype and 65 (42%) were El Tor Inaba. Thirty-four percent of patients with cholera were intravenously rehydrated and 22% required hospitalization. V. parahaemolyticus infections were detected sporadically but increased from July 2002 onwards. Conclusion: Diarrhoea causes a heavy public health burden in Jakarta particularly in young children. The impact of shigellosis is exacerbated by the threat of antimicrobial resistance, whereas that of cholera is aggravated by its severe manifestations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]