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Climate warming alters the seasonal timing of biological events. This raises concerns that species‐specific responses to warming may de‐synchronize co‐evolved consumer‐resource phenologies, resulting in trophic mismatch and altered ecosystem dynamics. We explored the effects of warming on the synchrony of two events: the onset of the phytoplankton spring bloom and the spring/summer maximum of the grazer Daphnia. Simulation of 16 lake types over 31 years at 1907 North African and European locations under 5 climate scenarios revealed that the current median phenological delay between the two events varies greatly (20–190 days) across lake types and geographic locations. Warming moves both events forward in time and can lengthen or shorten the delay between them by up to ±60 days. Our simulations suggest large geographic and lake‐specific variations in phenological synchrony, provide quantitative predictions of its dependence on physical lake properties and geographic location and highlight research needs concerning its ecological consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world is spatially autocorrelated. Both abiotic and biotic properties are more similar among neighboring than distant locations, and their temporal co‐fluctuations also decrease with distance. P. A. P. Moran realized the ecological importance of such 'spatial synchrony' when he predicted that isolated populations subject to identical log‐linear density‐dependent processes should have the same correlation in fluctuations of abundance as the correlation in environmental noise. The contribution from correlated weather to synchrony of populations has later been coined the 'Moran effect'. Here, we investigate the potential role of the Moran effect in large‐scale ecological outcomes of global warming. Although difficult to disentangle from dispersal and species interaction effects, there is compelling evidence from across taxa and ecosystems that spatial environmental synchrony causes population synchrony. Given this, and the accelerating number of studies reporting climate change effects on local population dynamics, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the implications of global warming for spatial population synchrony. However, a handful of studies of insects, birds, plants, mammals and marine plankton indicate decadal‐scale changes in population synchrony due to trends in environmental synchrony. We combine a literature review with modeling to outline potential pathways for how global warming, through changes in the mean, variability and spatial autocorrelation of weather, can impact population synchrony over time. This is particularly likely under a 'generalized Moran effect', i.e. when relaxing Moran's strict assumption of identical log‐linear density‐dependence, which is highly unrealistic in the wild. Furthermore, climate change can influence spatial population synchrony indirectly, through its effects on dispersal and species interactions. Because changes in population synchrony may cascade through food‐webs, we argue that the (generalized) Moran effect is key to understanding and predicting impacts of global warming on large‐scale ecological dynamics, with implications for extinctions, conservation and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rising temperatures can influence ecosystem processes both directly and indirectly, through effects on plant species and communities. An improved understanding of direct versus indirect effects of warming on ecosystem processes is needed for robust predictions of the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics.To explore potential direct and indirect effects of warming on C dynamics in arctic tundra heath, we established a warming (open top chambers) and dominant plant species (Empetrum hermaphroditum Hagerup) removal experiment at a high and low elevation site. We measured the individual and interactive effects of warming, dominant species removal and elevation on plant species cover, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), leaf area index (LAI), temperature, soil moisture and instantaneous net ecosystem CO2 exchange.We hypothesized that ecosystems would be stronger CO2 sinks at the low elevation site, and that warming and species removal would weaken the CO2 sink because warming should increase ecosystem respiration (ER) and species removal should reduce gross primary productivity (GPP). Furthermore, we hypothesized that warming and species removal would have the greatest impact on processes at the high elevation where site temperature should be most limiting and dominant species may buffer the overall community to environmental stress more compared to the low elevation site where plants are more likely to compete with the dominant species.The instantaneous CO2 flux, which reflected a weak CO2 sink, was similar at both elevations. Neither experimental warming nor dominant species removal significantly changed GPP or instantaneous net ecosystem CO2 exchange even though species removal significantly reduced ER, NDVI and LAI.Our results show that even the loss of dominant plant species may not result in significant landscape‐scale responses of net ecosystem CO2 exchange to warming. They also show that NDVI and LAI may be limited in their ability to predict changes in GPP in these tundra heaths systems. Our study highlights the need for more detailed vegetation analyses and ground‐truthed measurements in order to accurately predict direct and indirect impacts of climatic change on ecosystem C dynamics. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermal variation through space and time are prominent features of ecosystems that influence processes at multiple levels of biological organization. Yet, it remains unclear how populations embedded within biological communities will respond to climate warming in thermally variable environments, particularly as climate change alters existing patterns of thermal spatial and temporal variability. As environmental temperatures increase above historical ranges, organisms may increasingly rely on extreme habitats to effectively thermoregulate. Such locations desirable in their thermal attributes (e.g., thermal refugia) are often suboptimal for resource acquisition (e.g., underground tunnels). Thus, via the expected increase in both mean temperatures and diel thermal variation, climate warming may heighten the trade-off for consumers between behaviors maximizing thermal performance and those maximizing resource acquisition. Here, we integrate behavioral, physiological, and trophic ecology to provide a general framework for understanding how temporal thermal variation, mediated by access to a thermal refugium, alters the response of consumer-resource systems to warming. We use this framework to predict how temporal variation and access to thermal refugia affect the persistence of consumers and resources during climate warming, how the quality of thermal refugia impact consumer-resource systems, and how consumer-resource systems with fast vs. slow ecological dynamics respond to warming. Our results show that the spatial thermal variability provided by refugia can elevate consumer biomass at warmer temperatures despite reducing the fraction of time consumers spend foraging, that temporal variability detrimentally impacts consumers at high environmental temperatures, and that consumer-resource systems with fast ecological dynamics are most vulnerable to climate warming. Thus, incorporating both estimates of thermal variability and species interactions may be necessary to accurately predict how populations respond to warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding responses of oceanic primary productivity, carbon export, and burial to climate change is essential for model-based projection of biological feedbacks in a high-CO2 world. Here we compare estimates of productivity based on the composition of fossil diatom floras with organic carbon burial off Oregon in the Northeast Pacific across a large climatic transition at the last glacial termination. Although estimated primary productivity was highest during the Last Glacial Maximum, carbon burial was lowest, reflecting reduced preservation linked to low sedimentation rates. A diatom size index further points to a glacial decrease (and deglacial increase) in the fraction of fixed carbon that was exported, inferred to reflect expansion, and contraction, of subpolar ecosystems that today favor smaller plankton. Thus, in contrast to models that link remineralization of carbon to temperature, in the Northeast Pacific, we find dominant ecosystem and sea floor control such that intervals of warming climate had more efficient carbon export and higher carbon burial despite falling primary productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic global warming is occurring more rapidly in the Arctic than elsewhere, and has already caused significant negative effects on sea ice-dependent species such as polar bears. Although observed effects have thus far been gradual, the large amount of annual variation in the climate system may cause habitat changes in individual years that exceed the long-term trend. Such years may be below critical thresholds necessary for feeding and result in unprecedented reductions in survival, reproduction, and abundance in some populations. Here, in anticipation of sudden negative population-level effects, we provide an overview of proactive conservation and management options. Preplanning, consultation, and coordination of management responses will be necessary to reduce the risks to human safety and other effects of catastrophic declines in habitat. Advance consideration of the costs, legality, logistical difficulties, likelihood of success, and invasiveness of potential responses will be critical to minimizing short-term negative effects while laying the groundwork for longer-term conservation objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming can trigger abrupt ecosystem changes in the Arctic. Despite the considerable interest in characterizing and understanding the ecological impact of rapid climate warming in the Arctic, few long time series exist that allow addressing these research goals. During a 30-y period (1980-2010) of gradually increasing seawater temperature and decreasing sea ice cover in Svalbard, we document rapid and extensive structural changes in the rocky-bottom communities of two Arctic fjords. The most striking component of the benthic reorganization was an abrupt fivefold increase in macroalgal cover in 1995 in Kongsfjord and an eightfold increase in 2000 in Smeerenburgfjord. Simultaneous changes in the abundance of benthic invertebrates suggest that the macroalgae played a key structuring role in these communities. The abrupt, substantial, and persistent nature of the changes observed is indicative of a climate-driven ecological regime shift. The ecological processes thought to drive the observed regime shifts are likely to promote the borealization of these Arctic marine communities in the coming years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic land area has warmed by >1 °C in the last 30 years and there is evidence that this has led to increased productivity and stature of tundra vegetation and reduced albedo, effecting a positive (amplifying) feedback to climate warming. We applied an individual-based dynamic vegetation model over the Arctic forced by observed climate and atmospheric CO for 1980-2006. Averaged over the study area, the model simulated increases in primary production and leaf area index, and an increasing representation of shrubs and trees in vegetation. The main underlying mechanism was a warming-driven increase in growing season length, enhancing the production of shrubs and trees to the detriment of shaded ground-level vegetation. The simulated vegetation changes were estimated to correspond to a 1.75 % decline in snow-season albedo. Implications for modelling future climate impacts on Arctic ecosystems and for the incorporation of biogeophysical feedback mechanisms in Arctic system models are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The temperature dependence of predation rates is a key issue for understanding and predicting the responses of ecosystems to climate change. Using a simple mechanistic model, we demonstrate that differences in the relative performances of predator and prey can cause strong threshold effects in the temperature dependence of attack rates. Empirical data on the attack rate of northern pike (Esox lucius) feeding on brown trout (Salmo trutta) confirm this result. Attack rates fell sharply below a threshold temperature of +11°C, which corresponded to a shift in relative performance of pike and brown trout with respect to maximum attack and escape swimming speeds. The average attack speed of pike was an order of magnitude lower than the escape speed of brown trout at 5°C, but approximately equal at temperatures above 11°C. Thresholds in the temperature dependence of ecological rates can create tipping points in the responses of ecosystems to increasing temperatures. Thus, identifying thresholds is crucial when predicting future effects of climate warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]