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The recent progress report of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 2023 highlighted the extreme reactions of environmental degradation. This report also shows that the current efforts for achieving environmental sustainability (SDG 13) are inadequate and a comprehensive policy agenda is needed. However, the present literature has highlighted several determinants of environmental degradation but the influence of geopolitical risk on environmental quality (EQ) is relatively ignored. To fill this research gap and propose a inclusive policy structure for achieving the sustainable development goals. This study is the earliest attempt that delve into the effects o of geopolitical risk (GPR), financial development (FD), and renewable energy consumption (REC) on load capacity factor (LCF) under the framework of load capacity curve (LCC) hypothesis for selected Asian countries during 1990-2020. In this regard, we use several preliminary sensitivity tests to check the features and reliability of the dataset. Similarly, we use panel quantile regression for investigating long-run relationships. The factual results affirm the existence of the LCC hypothesis in selected Asian countries. Our findings also show that geopolitical risk reduces environmental quality whereas financial development and REC increase environmental quality. Drawing from the empirical findings, this study suggests a holistic policy approach for achieving the targets of SDG 13 (climate change)., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Together with other elevated areas, the Mountains of Central Asia are significantly threatened by ongoing climate change. The presence of refuges during the glaciations makes the region extremely rich in species, especially endemic ones. However, the limited potential for colonisation of other habitats makes rocky-related species with 'island-like' distribution, particularly vulnerable to climate change. To understand the processes underlying species response to climate warming, we assessed differences in ecological niches and phylogenetic relationship of two geographically disjunctive alpine species belonging to the genus Sergia. The taxa are considered Tertiary relicts, endemic to the Tian Shan and Pamir-Alai Mountains. To illustrate range dynamics and differences in occupied niches of Sergia species, we used Ecological Niche Modelling of current and future distribution. Whereas, to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationship within and between Sergia and other related Campanulaceae species from the region we used molecular data (ITS, cpDNA, DArTseq-derived SNPs)., Results: The results reveal that the genus Sergia is a polyphyletic group, and its representatives differ geographically, ecologically and genetically. Both S. regelii and S. sewerzowii constitute a common clade with Asyneuma group, however, S. sewerzowii is more closely related to Campanula alberti (a species that has never previously been considered closely related to the genus Asyneuma or Sergia) than to S. regelii. Sergia sewerzowii is adapted to lower elevations with higher temperatures, while S. regelii prefers higher elevations with lower temperatures. The future distribution models demonstrate a dramatic loss of S. regelii range with a shift to suitable habitats in higher elevations, while the potential range of S. sewerzowii increases and shifts to the north., Conclusions: This study shows that S. regelii and S. sewerzowii have a long and independent evolution history. Sergia regelii and S. sewerzowii significantly differ in realised niches. These differences are mirrored in the response of the studied endemics to future climate warming. As suitable habitats shrink, rapid changes in distribution can lead to species' range loss, which is also directly related to declines in genetic variability. The outcomes of this paper will help to more precisely assess the impact of climate changes on rocky-related plant species found in this world's biodiversity hotspot., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

The article presents a study on the climatic effects on monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level under the Representative Concentration Pathway 3 (RCP3) scenario which will peak global mean temperatures to about 1.5°C. The study employs the CLIMBER-3α model to examine the aspects of climate change under the RCP scenario. It reveals that the average monsoon rainfall in Asia and Africa increases with the land-ocean temperature differences.

Climate change is not something that has never happened before. However, it has recently been reported that climate change has affected living things such as humans, animals and plants. Among the animals that may be vulnerable to the effects of climate change are migratory bird species. Therefore, this review paper will emphasise the checklist of migratory bird species found to be affected by climate change. Data for bird migration species in Asia are obtained from the Birdlife Data Zone. At the same time, the data for Global land surface temperature (1910-2020) and Asia land surface temperature (1910-2020) were taken from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for Environmental information. These papers showed that climate warming could affect species differently, but there are still species from certain populations not affected at all. This paper also reviewed that approximately 169 species of migratory birds in Asia are affected by climate change and severe weather. Of the total, 5 species (2.96%) are critically endangered, 8 (4.73%) endangered, 21 (12.43%) vulnerable, 27 (15.98%) near threatened and 123 (63.91%) least concern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural production is under threat due to climate change in food insecure regions, especially in Asian countries. Various climate-driven extremes, i.e., drought, heat waves, erratic and intense rainfall patterns, storms, floods, and emerging insect pests have adversely affected the livelihood of the farmers. Future climatic predictions showed a significant increase in temperature, and erratic rainfall with higher intensity while variability exists in climatic patterns for climate extremes prediction. For mid-century (2040-2069), it is projected that there will be a rise of 2.8 °C in maximum temperature and a 2.2 °C in minimum temperature in Pakistan. To respond to the adverse effects of climate change scenarios, there is a need to optimize the climate-smart and resilient agricultural practices and technology for sustainable productivity. Therefore, a case study was carried out to quantify climate change effects on rice and wheat crops and to develop adaptation strategies for the rice-wheat cropping system during the mid-century (2040-2069) as these two crops have significant contributions to food production. For the quantification of adverse impacts of climate change in farmer fields, a multidisciplinary approach consisted of five climate models (GCMs), two crop models (DSSAT and APSIM) and an economic model [Trade-off Analysis, Minimum Data Model Approach (TOAMD)] was used in this case study. DSSAT predicted that there would be a yield reduction of 15.2% in rice and 14.1% in wheat and APSIM showed that there would be a yield reduction of 17.2% in rice and 12% in wheat. Adaptation technology, by modification in crop management like sowing time and density, nitrogen, and irrigation application have the potential to enhance the overall productivity and profitability of the rice-wheat cropping system under climate change scenarios. Moreover, this paper reviews current literature regarding adverse climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, associated main issues, challenges, and opportunities for sustainable productivity of agriculture to ensure food security in Asia. Flowing opportunities such as altering sowing time and planting density of crops, crop rotation with legumes, agroforestry, mixed livestock systems, climate resilient plants, livestock and fish breeds, farming of monogastric livestock, early warning systems and decision support systems, carbon sequestration, climate, water, energy, and soil smart technologies, and promotion of biodiversity have the potential to reduce the negative effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changing weather patterns, increasing frequency and intensity of natural hazards, and rising sea levels associated with global climate change have the potential to threaten cultural heritage sites worldwide. This is especially the case for maritime heritage sites located in the low-lying coastal and delta regions of Asia. Maritime heritage can reflect both highly localized cultural products based on the coupling of people and maritime environments and the historic footprints of complex maritime networks that connect people, ideas, and material over vast distances, creating unique cultural spheres. Furthermore, maritime heritage sites potentially serve as or contain records of how past societies have been impacted by and adapted to past environmental stress. Therefore, their degradation threatens local/regional/global cultural patrimony as well as evidence of human resilience and fragility in the face of environmental change. This makes a strong case for urgent preservation. However, the possible damage caused by climate change and the scale of vulnerable maritime heritage pose seemingly insurmountable challenges. In this paper, we present the ways in which maritime heritage sites across Asia are vulnerable to environmental stresses, such as changing sea levels, coastal erosion, flooding, and storm surges. Our objective is to draw upon our experience documenting endangered cultural heritage across South and Southeast Asia to illustrate that there are unique conceptual and practical characteristics of maritime heritage that complicate effective management and conservation efforts on the scale required to prevent massive loss by climate change. We conclude by stressing the need to reconceptualize debates about the custody and stewardship of maritime heritage and the urgency of employing a wide range of innovative preservation solutions to ensure maritime patrimony is not lost to the rising tides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate change has altered global hydrological cycles mainly due to changes in temperature and precipitation, which may exacerbate the global and regional water shortage issues, especially in the countries along the Belt and Road (B&R). Methods: In this paper, we assessed water supply, demand, and stress under three climate change scenarios in the major countries along the Belt and Road. We ensembled ten Global Climate Model (GCM) runoff data and downscaled it to a finer resolution of 0.1 × 0.1 by the random forest model. Results: Our results showed that the GCM runoff was highly correlated with the FAO renewable water resources and thus could be used to estimate water supply. Climate change would increase water supply by 4.85%, 5.18%, 8.16% and water demand by 1.45%, 1.68%, 2.36% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios by 2050s, respectively. As a result, climate change will, in general, have little impact on water stress in the B&R countries as a whole. However, climate change will make future water resources more unevenly distributed among the B&R countries and regions, exacerbating water stress in some countries, especially in Central Asia and West Asia. Our results are informative for water resource managers and policymakers in the B&R countries to make sustainable water management strategies under future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Countering climate challenges requires genuine multi-layered approaches in cooperation with various stakeholders. Spanning 20 years, the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN) has been facilitating the research community to provide regional and grassroots results and solutions, while acting as a mechanism to encourage science-policy-stakeholder dialogue. This paper outlines the relevance of APN projects to IPCC policymaking by laying out knowledge products and lessons learned from the projects. It also narrates how regional research and capacity building assist in responding to the increasing urgency across climate change and the SDGs. A synthesis of project-generated knowledge was garnered from research and capacity development studies conducted under the auspices of APN to identify their scope and level of policy relevance. A combined typology and solution scanning with Likert scale as relevance rating was employed to categorize contribution against key themes of the IPCC sixth assessment report. Findings suggest 115 distinct and relevant projects completed mostly in Southeast Asia, South Asia and Temperate East Asia, with many of them asserting community-based adaptation and mitigation surrounding issues on ecosystems and biodiversity, extreme weather events, water-food-energy nexus, sustainable waste management, and climate education. Findings also show 163 knowledge products in which majority of them (66.87%) were peer-reviewed journal articles, 11.04% were reports, 7.98% were policy briefs, 6.75% were guidelines and tools, 4.91% were books and 2.45% were perspectives and opinions. With the evolving synergies between global climate targets and the SDGs, it is recommended that APN solidify its role in science-policy partnerships and networking by creating improved interlinkages for disseminating knowledge gaps filled and in replicating lessons learned and best practices found in APN knowledge products. In addition to science-policy dialogues and output synthesis, a regular review of APN research and capacity development outcomes will help in realizing these important aspects toward wider policy impact., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

In recent times, there has been increase in climate change protest across the globe. However, whether decrease in emissions is connected with climate change protest or not is yet to be documented in the literature. Consequently, the aim of this study is to fill this gap by examining ex-post detection of how climate change protests and its interconnectedness with CO2 emissions. Using the Bai and Perron (1998) structural break test, we estimate the number of breaks as well as the date of such structural breaks in CO2 emissions series for 41 countries. Our aim is to match the date of the climate change protests to those of the structural breaks. We observe that climate change protests are fairly consistent with the dates of breaks in Europe and Asia, but not in BRICS economies or US, Canada and other countries. Therefore, this method allows us to solve a gap in the energy industry related to the modelling and correct allocation of positive shocks in CO2 emissions to climate change protests., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The westerly jet (WJ) is an important component of atmospheric circulation, which is characterized by prominent seasonal variations in intensity and position. However, the response of the WJ over Asia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is still not clear. Using general circulation model experiments, the seasonal behaviors of the WJ over central Asia and Japan are analyzed in this paper. The results show that, compared to the present day (PD), the WJ presents a complicated response during the LGM, both in intensity and position. Over central Asia, it becomes weaker in both summer and winter. But over Japan, it is enhanced in summer but becomes diminished in winter. In terms of position, the WJ over central Asia shifts southward in both summer and winter, whereas the WJ over Japan moves southward in summer but does not change obviously relative to PD in winter. Such WJ changes are well explained by meridional temperature gradients in high troposphere, which is closely linked to seasonal thermal anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Despite cooler LGM conditions, the anomalous warming center over the TP becomes stronger in summer. Derived from the heat budget equation, the stronger heating center is mainly caused by the weaker adiabatic cooling generated from ascending motion over the area south of the TP. In winter, the cooling over the TP is also strengthened, mostly owing to the subsidence-induced weaker adiabatic heating. Due to the importance of the WJ, the potential role of TP thermal effects should be a focus when explaining the East Asian climate change during the LGM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meat consumption is a major contributor to global warming. Given the worldwide growing demand of meat, and the severe impact of meat production on the planet, reducing animal protein consumption is a matter of food security and public health. Changing consumer food behavior is a challenge. Taste preferences, culinary traditions and social norms factor into food choices. Since behavioral change cannot occur without the subject's positive attitude based on reasons and motivations, a total of 34 papers on consumer attitudes and behavior towards meat consumption in relation to environmental concerns were examined. The results show that consumers aware of the meat impact on the planet, willing to stop or significantly reduce meat consumption for environmental reasons, and who have already changed their meat intake for ecological concerns are a small minority. However, environmental motives are already appealing significant proportions of Westerners to adopt certain meat curtailment strategies. Those who limit meat intake for environmental reasons are typically female, young, simply meat-reducer (not vegan/vegetarian), ecology-oriented, and would more likely live in Europe and Asia than in the U.S.

Unprecedented challenges in urban management of water, waste and climate change-amplified by urbanisation and economic growth-are growing in Asia. In this circumstance, cities need to be aware of threats and opportunities to improve their capacity in addressing these challenges. This paper identifies priorities, barriers and enablers of these capacities. Through the City Blueprint ® Approach-an integrated baseline assessment of the urban water cycle-11 Asian cities are assessed. Three cities are selected for an in-depth governance capacity analysis of their challenges with a focus on floods. Solid waste collection and treatment and access to improved drinking water and sanitation can be considered priorities, especially in cities with considerable slum populations. These people are also disproportionately affected by the impacts of climate-related hazards. The high variation of water management performance among Asian cities shows high potential for city-to-city learning by sharing best practices in water technology and governance. Combining interventions, i.e., by exploring co-benefits with other sectors (e.g., transport and energy) will increase efficiency, improve resilience, and lower the cost. Although governance capacities varied among cities, management of available information, monitoring and evaluation showed to be reoccurring points for improvement. Cities are also expected to increase implementation capacities using better policy, stricter compliance and preparedness next to promoting community involvement. Consequently, the city transformation process can be more concrete, efficient and inclusive.

This paper considers how to make pro-poor climate change adaptation more effective in the city of Chittagong. Drawing on discussions with residents in informal settlements and interviews with staff from government agencies, NGOs and donors, it shows the lack of connection between the formal institutional structure for disaster preparedness and the groups most at risk from extreme weather disasters and their community level actions. There is no clear definition of roles among local government agencies with regard to climate change adaptation. Although there is a donor-funded programme to reduce poverty and disaster risks, this is not being implemented in the settlements most at risk from landslides. Neither are there any measures underway to address the needs of the residents in these high risk settlements, in part because of the financial weakness of local government. Nor is there much support for this from national government – since national climate change adaptation policy does not consider urban adaptation and strengthening urban government capacity to reduce the vulnerability of the extreme poor as a priority. NGOs undertake programmes for community-based disaster risk reduction but their scale and scope are limited by not being integrated into local government. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper examines the possible influence of external forcings on observed changes in precipitation extremes in the mid-to-high latitudes of Asia during 1958–2012 and attempts to identify particular extreme precipitation indices on which there are better chances to detect the influence of external forcings. We compare a recently compiled dataset of observed extreme indices with those from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations using an optimal fingerprinting method. We consider six indices that characterize different aspects of extreme precipitation, including annual maximum amount of precipitation falling in 1 day (Rx1day) or 5 days (Rx5day), the total amount of precipitation from the top 5% or top 1% daily amount on wet days, and the fraction of the annual total precipitation from these events. For single-signal analysis, the fingerprints of external forcings including anthropogenic agents are robustly detected in most studied extreme indices over all Asia and for midlatitude Asia but not for high-latitude Asia. For two-signal analysis, anthropogenic influence is detectable in these indices over Asia at 5% or slightly less than 5% significance level, whereas natural influence is not detectable. In high-latitude Asia, anthropogenic influence is detected only in a fractional index, representing a stark contrast to the midlatitude and full Asia results. We find relatively smaller internal variability and thus higher signal-to-noise ratio in the fractional indices when compared with the other ones. Our results point to the need for studying precipitation extreme indices that are less affected by internal variability while still representing the relevant nature of precipitation extremes to improve the possibility of detecting a forced signal if one is present in the data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy–water–land nexus represents a critical leverage future policies must draw upon to reduce trade-offs between sustainable development objectives. Yet, existing long-term planning tools do not provide the scope or level of integration across the nexus to unravel important development constraints. Moreover, existing tools and data are not always made openly available or are implemented across disparate modeling platforms that can be difficult to link directly with modern scientific computing tools and databases. In this paper, we present the NExus Solutions Tool (NEST): a new open modeling platform that integrates multi-scale energy–water–land resource optimization with distributed hydrological modeling. The new approach provides insights into the vulnerability of water, energy and land resources to future socioeconomic and climatic change and how multi-sectoral policies, technological solutions and investments can improve the resilience and sustainability of transformation pathways while avoiding counterproductive interactions among sectors. NEST can be applied at different spatial and temporal resolutions, and is designed specifically to tap into the growing body of open-access geospatial data available through national inventories and the Earth system modeling community. A case study analysis of the Indus River basin in south Asia demonstrates the capability of the model to capture important interlinkages across system transformation pathways towards the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, including the intersections between local and regional transboundary policies and incremental investment costs from rapidly increasing regional consumption projected over the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews recent advances regarding land–atmosphere–ocean coupling associated with the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its climatic impacts. Thermal forcing over the TP interacts strongly with that over the Iranian Plateau, forming a coupled heating system that elevates the tropopause, generates a monsoonal meridional circulation over South Asia and creates conditions of large-scale ascent favorable for Asian summer monsoon development. TP heating leads to intensification and westward extension (northward movement) of the South Asian High (Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone), and exerts strong impacts on upstream climate variations from North Atlantic to West Asia. It also affects oceanic circulation and buoyancy fields via atmospheric stationary wave trains and air–sea interaction processes, contributing to formation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The TP thermal state and atmospheric–oceanic conditions are highly interactive and Asian summer monsoon variability is controlled synergistically by internal TP variability and external forcing factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Topic 3 of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) Phase III examines how online coupled air quality models perform in simulating wintertime haze events in the North China Plain region and evaluates the importance of aerosol radiative feedbacks. This paper discusses the estimates of aerosol radiative forcing, aerosol feedbacks, and possible causes for the differences among the participating models. Over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, the ensemble mean of estimated aerosol direct radiative forcing (ADRF) at the top of atmosphere, inside the atmosphere, and at the surface are -1.1 , 7.7, and -8.8 W m -2 during January 2010, respectively. Subdivisions of direct and indirect aerosol radiative forcing confirm the dominant role of direct forcing. During severe haze days (17–19 January 2010), the averaged reduction in near-surface temperature for the BTH region can reach 0.3–1.6 ∘ C. The responses of wind speeds at 10 m (WS10) inferred from different models show consistent declines in eastern China. For the BTH region, aerosol–radiation feedback-induced daytime changes in PM 2.5 concentrations during severe haze days range from 6.0 to 12.9 µ g m -3 (<6 %). Sensitivity simulations indicate the important effect of aerosol mixing states on the estimates of ADRF and aerosol feedbacks. Besides, black carbon (BC) exhibits a large contribution to atmospheric heating and feedbacks although it accounts for a small share of mass concentration of PM 2.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How farmers perceive climate change is linked to whether they are responding and adapting to it. However, often this perception does not correspond with what actually happens. Based on a search of empirical studies carried out in Africa and Asia, this paper analyzes two factors that can influence farmers' perception regarding climate change: expected utility maximization and availability heuristic. While expected utility maximization refers to an expected change in farmers' well-being, the availability heuristic is a mental shortcut based on the memory of occurrence of events. Generally, empirical studies show that farmers' perceptions are aligning with meteorological records regarding an increase in temperature. However, while there are no significant variations in rainfall trends, farmers perceive a reduction in rainfall in the last few years. The recent increase in drought frequency and severity may cause this divergence, because it affects farmers' well-being, and extreme droughts have a central position in peoples' memory. In this context, our findings suggest that farmers' perceptions are influenced by economic and psychological issues. Policymakers, extension workers and developers of climate projects need to pay attention to farm and farmers' characteristics in order to develop mitigation and/or adaptation practices regarding climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the adaptation strategies of developing countries and the possible adaptation options available for Southeast Asia. Adaptation refers to the actions taken by individuals, communities, or governments in response to climate change, to reduce the adverse impacts or to take advantage of opportunities offered by such changes. Adaptation strategies have hardly been considered by many Southeast Asian countries in as recently as two or three years ago. The cost of adaptation and the funding available is also discussed, with the possibility of using institutions for risk sharing (disaster management) and risk transfer (insurance and derivatives) as measures to adapt. A regional outlook for adaptation for Southeast Asia concludes the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable attribution of Asian summer monsoon variations to aerosol forcing is critical to reducing uncertainties in future projections of regional water availability, which is of utmost importance for risk management and adaptation planning in this densely populated region. Yet, simulating the monsoon remains a challenge for climate models that suffer from long-standing biases, undermining their reliability in attributing anthropogenically forced changes. We analyze a suite of climate model experiments to identify a link between model biases and monsoon responses to Asian aerosols and associated physical mechanisms, including the role of large-scale circulation changes. The aerosol impact on monsoon precipitation and circulation is strongly influenced by a model's ability to simulate the spatio-temporal variability in the climatological monsoon winds, clouds, and precipitation across Asia, which modulates the magnitude and efficacy of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, an important component of the total aerosol response. There is a strong interplay between South Asia and East Asia monsoon precipitation biases and their relative predominance in driving the overall monsoon response. We found a striking contrast between the early- and late-summer aerosol-driven changes ascribable to opposite signs and seasonal evolution of the biases in the two regions. A realistic simulation of the evolution of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is crucial to realize the full extent of the aerosol impact over Asia. These findings provide important implications for better understanding and constraining the diversity and inconsistencies of model responses to aerosol changes over Asia in historical simulations and future projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several developing countries in Asia are relying on agricultural practices in which climate change is a challenging concern. The trends change in atmospheric parameters and vegetation indices are questioned and vague. Consequently, the trend variations of the environmental characteristics were introduced in the first decade of 21 century to better understand the trend changes and envisage the relationship between the atmospheric parameters and the vegetation cover. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder provide several atmospheric parameters, e.g., Air Temperature, Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), and Carbon Dioxide (CO2). In addition, NDVI was estimated and aimed at the role of the interactions among the atmospheric parameters based on statistical analysis. The results showed that AOD and NDVI were air temperature dependent; meanwhile, AOD, NDVI, and air temperature were exchanging and influencing one another. Furthermore, the average minimum air temperature of the region increased during this period and carbon dioxide was a time-dependant parameter that was rising at a steep slope, which may lead to environmental crises. The trend analysis outlines what policies, programs, and procedures should be used to balance the ecosystem and mitigate the climatic negative effects. The Current research strengthens on the social awareness and the international cooperation to reduce socio-economic and political harm and loss in the face of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global population is aging at the same time as heat exposures are increasing due to climate change. Age structure, and its biological and socio-economic drivers, determine populations' vulnerability to high temperatures. Here we combine age-stratified demographic projections with downscaled temperature projections to mid-century and find that chronic exposure to heat doubles across all warming scenarios. Moreover, >23% of the global population aged 69+ will inhabit climates whose 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature exceeds the critical threshold of 37.5 °C, compared with 14% today, exposing an additional 177–246 million older adults to dangerous acute heat. Effects are most severe in Asia and Africa, which also have the lowest adaptive capacity. Our results facilitate regional heat risk assessments and inform public health decision-making. By 2050 > 23% of the global population aged 69 + will live in climates with acute heat exposure– the 95th percentile of the distribution of maximum daily temperatures–greater than the critical threshold of 37.5C, compared with 14% in 2020, an increase of 177–246 million older adults exposed to dangerous acute heat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main climate mode that drives the interannual variability in climate and consequently vegetation greenness. While widespread green‐up has been reported and examined in tropical America during El Niño, it remains unclear how vegetation in tropical Asia changes during the period. Here, we used four remote sensing‐based leaf area index (LAI) products to investigate changes in vegetation greenness during the 2015/16 El Niño in tropical Asia. We found a strong green‐up during the 2015/16 El Niño in tropical Asia, with its regional average LAI stronger than that of tropical America. The drivers for the green‐up vary across the region, with radiation being the main driver for continental tropical Asia, and temperature and soil water anomalies in the west and east parts of maritime tropical Asia, respectively. These findings provide important insights into the response of tropical Asia's vegetation to extreme climate anomalies. Plain Language Summary: El Niño is a climate pattern that is associated with warm and dry conditions in tropical forest regions. Significant climatic changes during El Niño thus affect vegetation greenness (i.e., growth, size of canopy, amount of leaves). While an increase in vegetation greenness has been reported in tropical America during El Niño, it remains unclear how vegetation in tropical Asia changes during the period. Here, we used satellite data to investigate changes in vegetation greenness during El Niño in 2015–2016 in tropical Asia. We found a strong increase in vegetation greenness in tropical Asia during this period. The cause of this increase in greenness varied across different parts of tropical Asia. In mainland tropical Asia, sunlight was the main driver, while in maritime Southeast Asia, temperature or soil moisture was the main driver. These findings help provide better understanding of how vegetation in tropical Asia responds to extreme climate events like El Niño. Key Points: Tropical Asia experienced strong green‐up during the 2015/16 El Niño, stronger than that of tropical AmericaIn continental tropical Asia, green‐up was mostly driven by anomalously high shortwave radiationIn maritime tropical Asia, green‐up was primarily driven either by anomalously warmer temperatures or drier soil moisture from the west to east [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions ( WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30-40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6-2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As many water related disasters occur frequently around the world, proper assessment of future climate change impact on floods and droughts is essential. In this study, we focused on basin-scale climate change impact assessment as necessary information for studying adaptation measures on the basis of integrated water resources management. We used Meteorological Research Institute-Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM) 3.2S (20 km grid super high resolution model) and a series of simulation methods for climate change analysis. We conducted a comparative study on changes in precipitation, flood discharge and inundation in the future during the wet and dry seasons for five target river basins in the Asian monsoon area. We found that regional precipitation outputs from the high resolution model in this study were in good agreement in the point of tendency of their changes in wet and dry monsoon seasons with the regional precipitation analysis in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of Working Group 1 (WG1) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013). This study illustrated that the proposed methodology can make more detailed descriptions of climate change possible. The study also found the importance of basin-scale runoff and inundation analysis with downscaling especially for basins where floods occur for a short period, suggesting potential differences between flood change and precipitation change from General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs such as maximum 5-day precipitation index in a basin. As a result, this paper confirms the importance of basin-scale discharge and inundation analysis for climate change considering basin characteristics from the viewpoint of river management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human–wildlife conflict is an important factor in the modern biodiversity crisis and has negative effects on both humans and wildlife (such as property destruction, injury, or death) that can impede conservation efforts for threatened species. Effectively addressing conflict requires an understanding of where it is likely to occur, particularly as climate change shifts wildlife ranges and human activities globally. Here, we examine how projected shifts in cropland density, human population density, and climatic suitability—three key drivers of human–elephant conflict—will shift conflict pressures for endangered Asian and African elephants to inform conflict management in a changing climate. We find that conflict risk (cropland density and/or human population density moving into the 90th percentile based on current-day values) increases in 2050, with a larger increase under the high-emissions “regional rivalry” SSP3 - RCP 7.0 scenario than the low-emissions “sustainability” SSP1 - RCP 2.6 scenario. We also find a net decrease in climatic suitability for both species along their extended range boundaries, with decreasing suitability most often overlapping increasing conflict risk when both suitability and conflict risk are changing. Our findings suggest that as climate changes, the risk of conflict with Asian and African elephants may shift and increase and managers should proactively mitigate that conflict to preserve these charismatic animals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Loess-paleosol sequences have been used in Asia to study climate and environmental changes during the Quaternary. The scarcity of age control datasets and proxy indices analysis data for Asian loess has limited our understanding of loess depositional processes and the reconstruction of paleoclimatic changes from loess-paleosol records. In this study, we present a dataset that includes 1785 quartz optically stimulated luminescence ages and 1038 K-feldspar post-infrared infrared stimulated luminescence ages from 128 loess-paleosol sequences located in different regions of Asia. We generate 38 high-resolution age-depth models of loess records based on the provided datasets. We provide data on 12,365 grain size records, 14,964 magnetic susceptibility records, 2204 CaCO3 content records, and 3326 color reflection records. This dataset contains the most detailed and accurate chronologies and proxy index data for loess records in Asia yet published. It provides fundamental data for understanding the spatial-temporal variations in loess depositional processes and climatic changes across the continent during the mid-late Quaternary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under future net-zero emission policies, reductions in emissions of ozone (O 3) precursors are expected to alter the temporal and spatial distributions of tropospheric O 3. In this study, we quantify changes in the tropospheric O 3 budget and in the spatiotemporal distribution of surface O 3 in east Asia and the contributions of regional emissions, intercontinental transport and climate change between the present day and 2060 under a net-zero scenario using the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) with online tagging of O 3 and its precursors. The results reveal that the global tropospheric O 3 burden is likely to decrease by more than 20 %, from 316 Tg in the present day to 247 Tg in 2060, under a net-zero scenario. The burden of stratospheric O 3 in the troposphere is expected to increase from 69 to 77 Tg. The mean lifetime of tropospheric O 3 is expected to increase by 2 d (∼10 %). Changes in climate under a net-zero pathway are relatively small and only lead to small increases in tropospheric O 3. Over eastern China, surface O 3 increases in winter due to the weakened titration of O 3 by NO associated with reduced anthropogenic NO emissions and due to enhanced stratospheric input. In summer, surface O 3 decreases by more than 30 ppbv, and peak concentrations shift from July to May. Local contributions from anthropogenic emissions to surface O 3 over east Asia are highest in summer but drop substantially, from 30 % to 14 %, under a net-zero scenario. The contribution of biogenic NO sources is enhanced and forms the dominant contributor to future surface O 3 , especially in summer (∼40 %). This enhanced contribution is mainly due to the increased O 3 production efficiency under lower anthropogenic precursor emissions. Over eastern China, local anthropogenic contributions decrease from 50 % to 30 %. The decreases in surface O 3 are strongly beneficial and are more than sufficient to counteract the increases in surface O 3 observed in China over recent years. This study thus highlights the important co-benefits of net-zero policies that target climate change in addressing surface O 3 pollution over east Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: In the near future, several areas of the world will be affected by climate change, reducing their water availability. More than 90% of goats are found in Asia and Africa, and it is believed that these animals would be more resilient to climate change. Their milk is a good source of nutrients, contributing to the food security of the poorest and rural communities. Considering that milk is mostly water, it is essential to understand how the goat mammary gland can respond at a productive, cellular, hormonal, and blood level when faced with reduced water intake scenarios, as well as analyzing prospects in terms of more sustainable goat milk production. Due to climate change, diverse territories of the planet will suffer from water restrictions. Goats are perceived as the most resilient ruminants in this scenario. So, various studies have focused on describing how a lower water intake influences milk production, especially in breeds adapted to desert environments. In water-stress situations, goats lose up to 32% of their body weight (BW), the rate of passage is reduced, and the digestibility of the feed increases. When goats consume water again, the rumen prevents hemolysis and osmotic shock from occurring. Regarding milk production, the response varies depending on the breed and the level of water restriction, maintaining the milk volume or reducing it by up to 41%. Systemically, it decreases the urinary volume and glomerular filtration rate, increasing blood osmolality and the vasopressin (ADH) concentration. Studies are scarce regarding changes in blood flow to the mammary gland, but there would be a reduction in blood flow velocity of up to 40% without changing blood pressure. New studies must be undertaken to determine which breeds or crosses are the best adapted to changing environmental conditions and to improve our understanding of the changes that occur at the morphophysiological level of the caprine mammary gland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate change is having adverse effects on the livelihoods of small-scale populations, particularly in relation to their subsistence practices. Scientific literature widely acknowledges that smallholders must first perceive climate changes to take necessary precautions and adapt to the new conditions. However, variations exist in the terminology used across the literature, and in how it conceptualizes these perceptions. This variation complicates understanding of the literature and hinders empirical evidence comparisons. Therefore, in this review, we systematically mapped the literature considering variations in the concept's usage across different thematic areas. Our goal was to provide a comprehensive overview of the current state of the literature on smallholder climate change perceptions. Methods: In our systematic map, we adhered to the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence guidelines. We searched the literature adopting English terms and using five electronic databases of scientific publications (Web of Science Core Collection, Scopus, BASE–Bielefeld Academic Search Engine, PubMed, and Science Direct Elsevier). We then screened the retrieved articles' titles, abstracts, and full texts according to predefined eligibility criteria. Articles meeting the eligibility criteria were chosen for full reading, data extraction, and coding, utilizing a prepared codebook. No validity appraisal occurred in this selection. A database containing coded metadata for all studies is accessible for reference. Review findings: After screening 5358 articles (titles and abstracts), we identified and thoroughly reviewed 361 eligible articles at full text to map the usage of the climate change perception concept. Among these, 73 articles provided explicit definitions of perception, falling into seven categories: risk perception, perception based on psychological constructs and sensory stimuli, awareness, prior experience, observation of climate variables, beliefs, and uncertainties or threats. Implicit definitions of perception with various constructs were found, including those rooted in Cognitive Psychology, awareness, risk perception, traditional knowledge, beliefs, concerns about climate change, experiences of exposure to its effects, attitudes, worldviews, and scientific knowledge. Articles usually address multiple topics. Notably, 88% of the articles did not present any theory throughout their content. Geographically, Africa and Asia were the most frequently studied continents, with more focus on non-indigenous small-scale populations than indigenous ones. Conclusions: In conclusion, the perception concept exhibits an interdisciplinary nature. Therefore, fostering continuous dialogue among diverse disciplines is imperative to establishing an interdisciplinary definition of the term. An in-depth understanding of the perception concept is essential, as its absence can result in erroneous conclusions, limited adaptation strategies, and a lack of awareness among small-scale populations regarding climate change impacts. Misconceptions about this concept can lead to ineffective policies, further endangering vulnerable populations. Defining the concept and its constructs facilitates article comparisons. Without this definition, meaningful comparisons become unfeasible. Moreover, the absence of proper perception definitions poses challenges for small-scale populations, researchers, and stakeholders in developing effective, efficient, and flexible adaptations over time. Perception is the first step in incorporating adaptation strategies and must be translated into policies to address climate change impacts efficiently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent technological advancements have revolutionized agriculture in Asia, leading to significant changes in crop yield stability. This study examines the changing face of crop yield stability in Asia resulting from the increasing adoption of innovative technologies in agriculture. Through a review of current research and case studies, the impact of technology-driven changes on yield levels, variability, and predictability is explored. The study applies a yield stability index (YSI) to evaluate the yield stability of six crops in seven Asian countries during two periods (1961–1994 and 1995–2020), comparing the countries, crops, and stability changes between the two segments. The novelty of the research is the application of YSI, which, contrary to usual stability metrics, can distinguish between rare large extreme yields and frequent minor fluctuations, and based on this feature, evaluates the suitability of the prevailing technologies to local environmental conditions. The YSI is used to evaluate the stability of technologies, indicating whether the technologies can respond well to the annual variations of environmental conditions. Positive YSI values indicate stable technologies that can respond well to the annual variations of environmental conditions, and the concept of a well-technologized crop is used for crops in countries with stable positive YSI values, indicating the suitability of the actual crop to the actual geographical environment. These results can guide production technology developments and the introduction or abandonment of certain crops in certain geographical zones, especially regarding the implications of climate change and global warming. This study highlights the transformative power of technology in improving crop yield stability and food security in Asia, while discussing the potential challenges associated with these changes and the need for continued research to address them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bacterial leaf streak (BLS), caused by Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzicola (Xoc), is a bacterial disease affecting rice production in Asia and Africa, whose severity is expected to increase with climate change. Identification of new quantitative-trait loci (QTL) or resistance genes for BLS resistance is essential for developing resistant rice. A genome-wide association study to identify QTL associated with BLS resistance was conducted using phenotypic and genotypic data from 429 rice accessions. Of 47 QTL identified, 45 were novel and two co-localized with previously reported QTL or genes conferring BLS resistance. qBLS6.2 on chromosome 6 explained the greatest phenotypic variation. Combined analysis of differential expression and annotations of predicted genes near qBLS6.2 based on haplotype and disease phenotype identified OsBLS6.2 (LOC_Os06g02960) as a candidate gene for qBLS6.2. OsBLS6.2 knockout plants showed higher resistance to Xoc than wild-type plants. Many other candidate genes for resistance to Xoc were identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mid-Pliocene warm period was the most recent geological period in Earth's history that featured long-term warming. Both geological evidence and model results indicate that East Asian summer winds (EASWs) strengthened in monsoonal China, and that East Asian winter winds (EAWWs) weakened in northern monsoonal China during this period, as compared to the pre-industrial period. However, the corresponding mechanisms are still unclear. In this paper, the results of a set of numerical simulations are reported to analyze the effects of changed boundary conditions on the mid-Pliocene East Asian monsoon climate, based on PRISM3 (Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. The model results showed that the combined changes of sea surface temperatures, atmospheric CO concentration, and ice sheet extent were necessary to generate an overall warm climate on a large scale, and that these factors exerted the greatest effects on the strengthening of EASWs in monsoonal China. The orographic change produced significant local warming and had the greatest effect on the weakening of EAWWs in northern monsoonal China in the mid-Pliocene. Thus, these two factors both had important but different effects on the monsoon change. In comparison, the effects of vegetational change on the strengthened EASWs and weakened EAWWs were relatively weak. The changed monsoon winds can be explained by a reorganization of the meridional temperature gradient and zonal thermal contrast. Moreover, the effect of orbital parameters cannot be ignored. Results showed that changes in orbital parameters could have markedly affected the EASWs and EAWWs, and caused significant short-term oscillations in the mid-Pliocene monsoon climate in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the face of climate change, it is essential to rethink how we build to reduce the environmental impact of the construction industry. Timber construction can be a solution to reduce the use of concrete or steel, whose manufacture emits much CO 2. This paper proposes a method to reinterpret tenon and mortise joints for construction. Friction-based assemblies, particularly mortise and tenon wooden joints, have been studied for centuries in Asia and Europe and may offer promising constructive solutions, such as allowing disassembling rather than demolishing a structure. These assemblies can be complex; they initially required a great deal of craftsmanship, which robotics can now replace to manufacture and assemble them. Nevertheless, it is necessary to develop methods to produce these robotic joints. Our method uses non-sequential assemblies, which are by definition, opposed to sequential assemblies. An assembly is said to be sequential when the elements that compose it are assembled one after the other, in a defined order or not. For a non-sequential assembly, all the elements that compose it are in motion and assembled simultaneously. This assembly method has the particularity of being locked only by its kinematics, which makes it possible to easily (dis)assemble the elements by only knowing their motion. After an introduction and defining the terms and hypotheses of our research, we discuss the related word. In the fourth section, the developed method is explained. Then, we introduce the different parameters to control the assembly's design and kinematics. After that, we extend the previous method to the third dimension. Finally, a construction prototype demonstrates the method's efficiency. [Display omitted] • Generality: our method works for pure translation, in 2D or 3D. • Exhaustivity: any kinematic can be generate thanks to parallel transformation. • Control: calculations and parameters are given to choose the kinematics according to external factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Settlement crises in ancient cultures of Western Asia are commonly thought to be caused by climatic events such as severe droughts. However, the insufficient climate proxy situation in this region challenges the inference of clear relationships between climate and settlement dynamics. We investigate the Holocene climatic changes on the Varamin Plain in the context of the climatic history of Western Central Asia by using a transient comprehensive Earth System Model simulation (8 ka BP to pre-industrial), a high-resolution regional snapshot simulation and a synthesis of pollen-based climate reconstructions. In line with the reconstructions, the models reveal only slightly varying mean climatic conditions on the Varamin Plain but indicate substantial changes in seasonality during the Holocene. Increased precipitation during spring, combined with lower temperature and potentially stronger snow accumulation on the upstream Alborz mountains may have led to an increased water supply on the alluvial fan during the vegetation period and thus to more favourable conditions for agricultural production during the Mid-Holocene compared to modern times. According to the model, dry periods on the Central Iranian Plateau are related to particularly weak Westerly winds, fostering the subsidence in the mid-troposphere and hampering precipitation over the region. The model reveals that dry periods have spatially heterogenous manifestations, thus explaining why they do not appear in all proxy records in the wider study region. In fact, the climatic signal may depend on local environmental conditions. The interaction of the topography with the atmospheric circulation leads to additional spatial heterogeneity. Although our results provide several indications for a connection between climate and settlement dynamics, the small overall changes in moisture call into question whether climate is the main driver for settlement discontinuities on the Central Iranian Plateau. To shed further light on this issue, more high-resolution long-term proxy records are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Climate change is causing an increase in air temperature, and consequently, animals are increasingly subject to heat stress, which is responsible for causing changes in their physiological and behavioral reactions, as well as reductions in feed intake, efficiency, growth, reproduction and milk and meat production. There are not only climate spaces for daily functions, but also climate cliffs that cause reproductive failures in the face of climate warming. The objective of this study was to develop a state-of-the-art model that calculates the impacts of climate and animal variables on milk production, metabolic rate, feed consumption and water needs. The study identifies current and future monthly latitudinal climate change impacts on milk production and feed and water needs in dairy cows on high-grain versus high-forage diets at three arbitrary north latitudes, 12°, 30° and 60°, for North and Central America and Asia. These three latitudes encompass current northern hemisphere bovine production environments and possible future production locations. The greatest impacts of climate change will be in the low elevations in tropical and subtropical regions. Global regions above 30° and below 60° latitude with reliable rainfall will be least affected by current projected levels of climate change. The effects of climate change on animals are typically viewed in terms of survivability and wellbeing. In this study, we broaden that purview to include climate impacts on reproductive capability. There are not only climate spaces for daily function, but climate cliffs that represent reproductive failures in the face of climate warming. This alternative focus suggests that climate warming challenges may be more immediate and profound than initially imagined. This research describes a state-of-the-art mechanistic model, Dairy Niche Mapper (DNM), and independent validation tests. Where test data are absent, the calculated results are consistent with expected responses. Simulations of metabolic chamber conditions reveal the local steady-state impacts of climate and animal variables on milk production capacity, metabolic rate, food consumption and water needs. Simulations of a temperature humidity index (THI) show strengths and limitations of that approach. Broader time- and spatial-scale calculations applied in the western and eastern halves of the northern hemisphere identify current and future monthly latitudinal climate change impacts on milk production potential, feed and water needs in dairy cows of different sizes. Dairy Niche Mapper (DNM) was developed from a broadly tested mechanistic microclimate-animal model, Niche Mapper (NM). DNM provides an improved quantitative understanding of the complex nonlinear interactions of climate variation and dairy bovine properties' effects on current and future milk production, feed and water needs for grazing and confinement dairy operations. DNM outputs include feasible activity times, milk production and water and feed needs of different-sized Holstein cows on high-grain (confinement feeding) versus high-forage (grazing feeding) diets at three arbitrary north latitudes, 12°, 30° and 60°, for North and Central America and for Asia. These three latitudes encompass current northern hemisphere bovine production environments and possible future production locations. The greatest impacts of climate change will be in the low elevations in tropical and subtropical regions. Global regions above 30° and below 60° latitude with reliable rainfall will be least affected by current projected levels of climate change. This work provides the basis for computational animal design for guiding agricultural development via breeding programs, genetic engineering, management options including siting or the manipulation of other relevant environmental and animal variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The growing cities in developing Asia require a massive provision of infrastructure, public transportation, housing and jobs for their population, as well as a healthy environment. On the other hand, urban Asia contributes increasingly to climate change, and suffers its impacts. The climate co-benefits approach in this paper refers to the development and implementation of policies and strategies that simultaneously contribute to addressing climate change and solving local environmental problems, which also have other development impacts. The co-benefits approach is important especially for developing countries, which have to overcome many challenges simultaneously with limited capacities and resources. Thus, the objective of this paper is to examine the main obstacles, opportunities and challenges to implementation of environmental co-benefit related policies in urban areas. The paper focuses primarily upon sub-national processes, particularly in cities in developing countries, but the research also looked into the links of sub-national processes to national and international processes. The paper relies on the results of research done in China, Indonesia and India. It offers a series of lessons for understanding initiatives that generated co-benefits and the factors that influence them. This paper provides insight on successful ways to promote, design and implement the urban co-benefits approach in urban areas. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyze uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the underlying socio-economic characteristics of the economic model and in the choice of climate-related policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols concentrations, e.g., climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake rate, and strength of the aerosol forcing. The IGSM-CAM is not only able to realistically simulate the present-day mean climate and the observed trends at the global and continental scale, but it also simulates ENSO variability with realistic time scales, seasonality and patterns of SST anomalies, albeit with stronger magnitudes than observed. The IGSM-CAM shares the same general strengths and limitations as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models in simulating present-day annual mean surface temperature and precipitation. Over land, the IGSM-CAM shows similar biases to the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3, which shares the same atmospheric model. This study also presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent) similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and three sets of climate parameters. Results of the simulations with the chosen climate parameters provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century changes in global mean surface air temperature from previous work with the IGSM. Because the IGSM-CAM framework only considers one particular climate model, it cannot be used to assess the structural modeling uncertainty arising from differences in the parameterization suites of climate models. However, comparison of the IGSM-CAM projections with simulations of 31 CMIP5 models under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show that the range of warming at the continental scale shows very good agreement between the two ensemble simulations, except over Antarctica, where the IGSM-CAM overestimates the warming. This demonstrates that by sampling the climate system response, the IGSM-CAM, even though it relies on one single climate model, can essentially reproduce the range of future continental warming simulated by more than 30 different models. Precipitation changes projected in the IGSM-CAM simulations and the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble both display a large uncertainty at the continental scale. The two ensemble simulations show good agreement over Asia and Europe. However, the ranges of precipitation changes do not overlap - but display similar size - over Africa and South America, two continents where models generally show little agreement in the sign of precipitation changes and where CCSM3 tends to be an outlier. Overall, the IGSM-CAM provides an efficient and consistent framework to explore the large uncertainty in future projections of global and regional climate change associated with uncertainty in the climate response and projected emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers how resilience thinking and, in particular, its emphasis on learning has been applied in 10 cities in Vietnam, India, Thailand and Indonesia. Applying a “shared learning” approach in the Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network (ACCCRN) has helped to create or strengthen networks, build appreciation for complexity and uncertainty among stakeholders, provide a space for deliberating concepts such as vulnerability and resilience, and build knowledge and capacities for stakeholders to engage and represent their own interests. Shared learning approaches face considerable challenges navigating politicized urban environments, in which the nature and value of existing systems − and therefore the value of building resilience − are contested. This article suggests that deliberate, strategic intervention by facilitators may contribute to more transformative change on behalf of equitable, socially just outcomes – and thus cautions against seeing urban climate vulnerability as a technical challenge, or shared learning as a “toolkit” for building resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper investigates the impact of different ocean initialization strategies on the forecast skill of decadal prediction experiments performed with the ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM) coupled model. The ocean initializations assimilate three-dimensional temperature and salinity anomalies from two different ocean state estimates, the ocean reanalysis of the German contribution to Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (GECCO) and an ensemble of MPI-OM ocean experiments forced with the NCEP-NCAR atmospheric reanalysis. The results show that North Atlantic and Mediterranean sea surface temperature (SST) variations can be skillfully predicted up to a decade ahead and with greater skill than by both uninitialized simulations and persistence forecasts. The regional distribution of SST predictive skill is similar in both initialization approaches; however, higher skill is found for the NCEP hindcasts than for the GECCO hindcasts when a combination of predictive skill measures is used. Skillful predictions of surface air temperature are obtained over northwestern Europe, northern Africa, and central-eastern Asia. The North Atlantic subpolar gyre region stands out as the region with the highest predictive skill beyond the warming trend, in both SST and upper-ocean heat-content predictions. Here the NCEP hindcasts deliver the best results due to a more accurate initialization of the observed variability. The dominant mechanism for North Atlantic climate predictability is of dynamical origin and can be attributed to the initialization of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thus explaining the reoccurrence of high predictive skill within the second pentad of the hindcasts experiments. The results herein demonstrate that ocean experiments forced with the observed history of the atmospheric state constitute a simple but successful alternative strategy for the initialization of skillful climate predictions over the next decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable development has always been a compromise formulation that papered over real conflict between environment and development. Twenty years after Rio, the geopolitical climate is far less conducive to easy compromises. Given an embattled North and a rising South, particularly Asia, the language of zero sum conflict rather than positive sum cooperation is likely to prevail. Green growth offers one way to paper over these conflicts yet again, but it would be prudent to resist this temptation. There is incomplete buy-in to the green growth story, and some in the South are also concerned that this narrative will downgrade poverty alleviation and equity considerations from the sustainable development triad of environment, growth and distribution. In this context, Rio+20 can play a positive role by focusing on national and sub-national institutions and embracing a diversity of national political, institutional and legal contexts; seeking to impose uniformity is likely to chafe. Global efforts can play a supporting role by inducing normative change, stimulate national processes, and provide hooks for domestic policy actors. In addition, Rio+20 should ensure that inclusion of the weakest should remain firmly on the agenda. While the conversations may be difficult, Rio+20 will be most productive if it leads to engagement with fraught geopolitical issues than if, once again, these are papered over. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several studies have documented the effect of the recent secular climate warming on the distributions and geographical ranges of birds. Here the authors report the strong impact of a recurring climatic pattern in the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle of warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) events, on spring migrants along the Far Eastern flyway in northeast Asia. In El Niño years, an unusually large number of birds that use the flyway are observed at Attu Island, westernmost of the Aleutian Islands, nearly 960 km away from the Asian coast. This study is based on a 20-yr dataset documenting the year-to-year variation of Asian birds arriving on Attu in the spring season and uses a three-phased analytical methodology to examine climate impacts on bird movements and populations. The authors offer evidence that birds are displaced toward the Attu area in strong eastward-moving storms. They also present results from a reverse trajectory model that was used to simulate trajectories that a sample of Attu arrivals likely followed in reaching the island. In a statistical analysis, it is shown that 79% of the variation of the Asian birds is explained by a single climate variable: sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific in the previous fall. It is the rise in sea surface temperature in this region, more than 8000 km from Attu, that characterizes the onset of an El Niño episode. Examining those years for which there was a strong ENSO signal in the fall, it is found that the following May is characterized by anomalously strong westerly winds in the northwest Pacific, conditions that are appropriate for large Asian bird fallouts at Attu. Because of the time lag between the fall sea surface temperatures in the El Niño region and the spring Asian bird count at Attu, and the strong correlation between these two quantities, the number of Asian birds arriving at Attu in spring is predictable in the previous autumn. Such predictions are presented for several years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the multi‐model average compares well with observations, individually most of the latest climate models do not simulate a realistic size of the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool in the present‐day climate. This study explores the implications of this warm pool size bias in climate models in Northern Hemisphere winter. The warm pool size bias in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models is related to the subtropical jet and precipitation distribution, both in the present‐day climate and in response to climate change, through extratropical Rossby wave trains and tropical circulation pathways. Based on these relationships, emergent constraints are developed to observationally constrain the future subtropical jet response over Asia and the Atlantic Ocean and precipitation response over North and Central America, which can help to reduce uncertainty in future projections of these features. Thus, accurate model simulation of the warm pool in the present‐day climate is important for future projections of the subtropical jet and precipitation. Plain Language Summary: This study examines the impact of a common problem in the latest climate models where they do not accurately simulate the size of the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool in the present‐day climate. The effects of this issue are investigated in the Northern Hemisphere winter. The warm pool size problem in the models affects the subtropical winds and precipitation, both in the current climate and in response to climate change. Based on the relationships between the present‐day warm pool size and future projections of the subtropical winds and precipitation across models, we can help to constrain future projections of the subtropical winds over Asia and precipitation over North and Central America by ruling out models with biased warm pool size. The results show that having an accurate simulation of the warm pool in the present‐day climate is crucial for more reliable future projections of subtropical winds and precipitation. Key Points: Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project multi‐model‐mean reproduces the observed Indo‐Pacific warm pool size well, but there is a huge inter‐model spread in warm pool sizeModel biases in warm pool size have local and remote effects on subtropical winds and precipitation in present‐day and future climatesEmergent constraints reduce projection uncertainty of subtropical winds and precipitation by ruling out models with biased warm pool size [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A mismatch between model- and proxy-based Holocene climate change, known as the "Holocene conundrum", may partially originate from the poor spatial coverage of climate reconstructions in, for example, Asia, limiting the number of grid cells for model–data comparisons. Here we investigate hemispheric, latitudinal, and regional mean time series and time-slice anomaly maps of pollen-based reconstructions of mean annual temperature, mean July temperature, and annual precipitation from 1908 records in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Temperature trends show strong latitudinal patterns and differ between (sub-)continents. While the circum-Atlantic regions in Europe and eastern North America show a pronounced Middle Holocene temperature maximum, western North America shows only weak changes, and Asia mostly shows a continuous Holocene temperature increase. Likewise, precipitation trends show certain regional peculiarities such as the pronounced Middle Holocene precipitation maximum between 40 and 50 ∘ N in Asia and Holocene increasing trends in Europe and western North America, which can all be linked with Holocene changes in the regional circulation pattern responding to temperature change. Given a background of strong regional heterogeneity, we conclude that the calculation of global or hemispheric means, which initiated the Holocene conundrum debate, should focus more on understanding the spatiotemporal patterns and their regional drivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Climate sensitivity of infectious diseases is discussed in many studies. A quantitative basis for distinguishing and predicting the disease impacts of climate and other environmental and anthropogenic driver‐pressure changes, however, is often lacking. To assess research effort and identify possible key gaps that can guide further research, we here apply a scoping review approach to two widespread infectious diseases: Lyme disease (LD) as a vector‐borne and cryptosporidiosis as a water‐borne disease. Based on the emerging publication data, we further structure and quantitatively assess the driver‐pressure foci and interlinkages considered in the published research so far. This shows important research gaps for the roles of rarely investigated water‐related and socioeconomic factors for LD, and land‐related factors for cryptosporidiosis. For both diseases, the interactions of host and parasite communities with climate and other driver‐pressure factors are understudied, as are also important world regions relative to the disease geographies; in particular, Asia and Africa emerge as main geographic gaps for LD and cryptosporidiosis research, respectively. The scoping approach developed and gaps identified in this study should be useful for further assessment and guidance of research on infectious disease sensitivity to climate and other environmental and anthropogenic changes around the world. Plain Language Summary: This study looks at how the effects of changes in climate and other environmental and anthropogenic factors are addressed in research on two widespread infectious diseases: Lyme disease (LD) (tick‐borne) and cryptosporidiosis (water‐borne). By a scoping review of existing research publications, the study identifies key gaps that need to be bridged in future research. For LD, more research is needed on water‐related and socioeconomic factors and their climate linkages, while for cryptosporidiosis, land‐related factors and their linkages with climate need further exploration. For both diseases, the interactions between host and parasite communities and their changes along with those in climate and other environmental factors emerge as insufficiently studied. Geographically, research is lacking for LD in Asia and cryptosporidiosis in Africa. By identifying and highlighting these research gaps, this study aims to guide future research on how changes in climate and other factors, and their interlinkages affect these infectious diseases around the world. Key Points: Studies on Lyme disease (LD) and cryptosporidiosis relationships with climate lack coupling with other environmental and anthropogenic factorsDriver‐pressure interactions with host and parasite communities are generally understudiedAsia and Africa are main geographic research gaps for LD and cryptosporidiosis research, respectively [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The eastern Tianshan Mountains are located in the arid interior of Asia, where tree growth is especially sensitive to climate. The ratio of stable carbon isotopes (δ13C) in the tree rings can provide information on changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, water availability, and physiological processes within the tree. In particular, the use of tree-ring δ13C values as a proxy for past atmospheric CO2 concentrations has gained widespread acceptance. In this study, detrended stable carbon isotope chronologies (13Ccorr) of Larix sibirica Ledeb. and Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey was established using tree-ring samples from high elevations in the eastern Tianshan Mountains of Xinjiang, China. The relationships between the tree-ring 13Ccorr and different climatic factors were explored using the correlation function and collinearity analysis. Our results demonstrate that the tree-ring δ13Ccorr of L. sibirica is significantly and negatively correlated with precipitation and relative humidity during the growing season. The main climate factor affecting the stable carbon isotope fractionation of L. sibirica during the growing season is relative humidity during the growing season. The tree-ring δ13Ccorr of P. schrenkiana is significantly and negatively correlated with the mean temperature, mean minimum temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure deficit from the end of the previous growing season and throughout the current growing season, especially in summer. However, it is significantly and positively correlated with relative humidity, indicating that the relationship between the climate factors and the tree-ring stable carbon isotope fractionation of P. schrenkiana is more complex. Further analysis showed that summer temperature and summer precipitation jointly controlled the tree-ring stable carbon isotope fractionation of P. schrenkiana at a high elevation. This research has important implications for our understanding of past and future climate change, as well as for the development of effective strategies to mitigate and adapt to these changes. This study also contributed to the development of a more in-depth understanding of the effects of climate change on tree growth in extremely arid environments and provided evidence to support effective forest management in arid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past ground surface temperature (GST), one of the important aspects of paleoclimate reconstructions, can be inverted from borehole temperature measurements. Here, we report continuous 6,100‐m temperature logs in the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program SK‐2e. We inverted the past GST changes from upper borehole temperature logging (<600 m). Below this depth, localized fluid flow masks the paleoclimate record. Inversions yield an approximately 2 K GST rise since 0.1–0.6 Kyr BP and an approximately 10 K rise since 20 Kyr BP. Assuming a ±5 K influence from the deep groundwater flow, the inverted temperature rise has varied between 8 and 12 K since 20 Kyr BP, which is consistent with previous reports since the Last Glacial Maximum. Our results emphasize the potential of borehole heat‐flow profiles as a record of climate changes and the importance of climate correction for heat‐flow determinations. Plain Language Summary: Temperatures within the shallow boreholes are perturbed by changes in ground surface temperature (GST) in response to paleoclimate variations and anthropogenic land use. The GST varies at different time scales, and these variations penetrate different depths underground. Thus, the borehole temperatures can be used for reconstructing the history of ground surface temperatures. Based on borehole geotherms of the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program in Northeast Asia, the past GST changes since the Last Glacial Maximum were inverted. The results show a ∼2 K surface temperature rise during 0.1–0.6 Kyr BP and a ∼10 K rise since 20 Kyr BP, which is consistent with previous independent estimates. Key Points: We report an undisturbed 6,100‐m continuous heat‐flow profile from the scientific drilling project SK‐2eThe heat‐flow profile recorded a 2 K rise of ground surface temperature in the last five centuries and a 10 K rise since the Last Glacial MaximumA basin‐scale comparison reveals localized heat‐flow anomalies induced by advective heat in deep and confined high‐permeability aquifers [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A warming climate cause changes in regional climate and climate extremes. However, understanding how future warming can affect the arid climate and drought in Asia is still unclear. Global warming (GW) impacts on shifts in arid regions and change patterns of drought in the Asia region are investigated using the shared socioeconomic pathway 5–8.5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. The variations in the arid region are explored under potential GW targets above preindustrial levels (+ 0.66 °C for the reference period and + 1.5 °C, + 2.5 °C, + 3.0 °C for future periods). We examine changes in precipitation and temperature indices related to drought, the drought patterns corresponding to consistent arid zones and arid-wet shifting zones based on GW scenarios. The results indicate that warming climates influence temperature and precipitation, and consequently alter climate distribution toward an expansion of the arid region. Due to shifts in climate zones, arid regions may expand by 2.6% relative to the reference climate in response to 3.0 °C of warming. Changes in precipitation indices contribute to the spatial patterns and magnitude of drought changes. Future drought features induced by meteorological conditions exhibit different behaviors according to arid-wet shifts and drought events. Especially, drought features throughout Asia are likely to be aggravated in terms of both severity and frequency in response to a greater degree of GW, especially in arid regions and regarding extreme droughts. This study provides valuable information on the relationship between regional climate and drought features in a world affected by GW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]