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Surface seawater 134Cs and 137Cs samples were collected in the central and western North Pacific Ocean during the 1.5 yr after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident to monitor dispersion patterns of these radioisotopes towards the Hawaiian Islands. In the absence of other recent sources and due to its short half-life only those parts of the Pacific Ocean would have detectable 134Cs that were impacted by Fukushima releases. Between March and May 2011, 134Cs was not detected around the Hawaiian Islands and Guam. Here, most 137Cs activities (1.2-1.5 Bqm-3) were in the range of expected preexisting levels. Some samples north of the Hawaiian Islands (1.6-1.8 Bqm-3) were elevated above the 18-month baseline established in surface seawater in Hawaii indicating that those might carry atmospheric fallout. The 18-month time-series analysis of surface seawater from Hawaii did not reveal any seasonal variability or trends, with an average activity of 1.46±0.06 Bqm-3 (Station Aloha, 17 values). In contrast, samples collected between Japan and Hawaii contained 134Cs activities in the range of 1-4 Bqm-3 and 137Cs levels were about 2-3 times above the pre-existing activities. We found that the southern boundary of the Kuroshio and Kuroshio extension currents represented a boundary for radiation dispersion with higher activities detected within and north of the major currents. The radiation plume has not been detected over the past 1.5 yr at the main Hawaiian Islands due to the transport patterns across the Kuroshio and Kuroshio extension currents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientists and managers of natural resources have recognized an urgent need for improved methods and tools to enable effective adaptation of management measures in the face of climate change. This paper presents an Adaptation Design Tool that uses a structured approach to break down an otherwise overwhelming and complex process into tractable steps. The tool contains worksheets that guide users through a series of design considerations for adapting their planned management actions to be more climate-smart given changing environmental stressors. Also provided with other worksheets is a framework for brainstorming new adaptation options in response to climate threats not yet addressed in the current plan. Developed and tested in collaboration with practitioners in Hawai'i and Puerto Rico using coral reefs as a pilot ecosystem, the tool and associated reference materials consist of worksheets, instructions and lessons-learned from real-world examples. On the basis of stakeholder feedback from expert consultations during tool development, we present insights and recommendations regarding how to maximize tool efficiency, gain the greatest value from the thought process, and deal with issues of scale and uncertainty. We conclude by reflecting on how the tool advances the theory and practice of assessment and decision-making science, informs higher level strategic planning, and serves as a platform for a systematic, transparent and inclusive process to tackle the practical implications of climate change for management of natural resources.

Background and Aims Islands, with their long coastlines and increased vulnerability to sea level rise, offer compelling opportunities to investigate the salinity tolerance of coastal plants. Seeds are generally more vulnerable than other plant stages to increased stressors. The aim of this study was to characterize salinity tolerance during germination across a diverse pool of 21 species from 14 plant families found in coastal communities throughout the Hawaiian Islands in order to increase our general understanding of coastal plant ecology for conservation and restoration. Methods Seeds of each species were exposed to unfiltered/untreated seawater (35 ppt total salinity) and two salinity treatments (10 and 20 ppt) in which the seawater was diluted with distilled water, and germination percent and timing were compared to seeds in a distilled water control. Non-germinated seeds were then tested for recovery germination. We quantified and compared germination percent, time and recovery among species and across salinity levels and tested for heterogeneity related to seed size, dormancy class, habit and threatened status. Key Results Although salinity tolerance varied considerably among species, salinity exposure generally reduced and delayed germination. The greatest effects were detected at higher salinity levels. Recovery germination overall was higher for seeds that had been exposed to higher salinity. None of the factors we explored emerged as predictors of salinity tolerance except seed mass, which tended to enhance germination at higher salinity. Conclusions Species responses to salinity exposure indicate high vulnerability of coastal systems to increased salinity stress, and variability among species could lead to shifts in community assembly and composition under sea level rise. These results can help guide coastal ecosystem conservation and restoration management decisions in the face of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Hawaiian Islands have been identified as a global biodiversity hotspot. We examine the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) using Climate Data Records products (0.05 × 0.05°) to identify significant differences in NDVI between neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation years (1984, 2019) and significant long-term changes over the entire time series (1982–2019) for the Hawaiian Islands and six land cover classes. Overall, there has been a significant decline in NDVI (i.e., browning) across the Hawaiian Islands from 1982 to 2019 with the islands of Lāna'i and Hawai'i experiencing the greatest decreases in NDVI (≥44%). All land cover classes significantly decreased in NDVI for most months, especially during the wet season month of March. Native vegetation cover across all islands also experienced significant declines in NDVI, with the leeward, southwestern side of the island of Hawai'i experiencing the greatest declines. The long-term trends in the annual total precipitation and annual mean Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1982–2019 on the Hawaiian Islands show significant concurrent declines. Primarily positive correlations between the native ecosystem NDVI and precipitation imply that significant decreases in precipitation may exacerbate the decrease in NDVI of native ecosystems. NDVI-PDSI correlations were primarily negative on the windward side of the islands and positive on the leeward sides, suggesting a higher sensitivity to drought for leeward native ecosystems. Multi-decadal time series and spatially explicit data for native landscapes provide natural resource managers with long-term trends and monthly changes associated with vegetation health and stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical Pacific Islands face unknown rates of future warming due to increased greenhouse gas emissions, but almost certain changing climate stresses. Continued global warming is projected to cause further changes to the mean conditions and variability of sea surface temperature (SST), rainfall, and sea surface height (SSH). Previous climate model simulations showed that the equatorial Pacific is likely to have greater increased rainfall, compared to elsewhere in the tropics. There is less certainty about future rainfall changes away from the equator, including around many of the numerous tropical Pacific Islands. Here, we assess the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project‐phase 6 (CMIP6) as it relates to future changes of SST, rainfall, and SSH in the tropical Pacific. Focus is on the island regions of Hawaii, Guam, and American Samoa, as well as the Niño 3.4 region. We consider two development narratives of the 21st century by assessing the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 experiments, and describe climate changes in the tropical Pacific relative to the recent historical conditions that are likely for either 1.5°C or 3°C of global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming above preindustrial levels. Consistent with prior‐generation climate models, we find that future rainfall increases the most where SST warming is greatest, and also an overall increase of interannual variability associated with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affecting rainfall and SSH. We describe changes in SST, rainfall, and SSH for particular warming amounts, and make comparisons with time‐based climate assessments during the 21st century, which are relevant results toward better understanding uncertainty and supporting adaptation efforts in the tropical Pacific Islands. Plain Language Summary: We assess 21st century projected climate changes in the tropical Pacific using the latest generation of climate models that simulate Earth's response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Focus is on describing likely changes of rainfall, as well as sea surface temperature and height, for broad regions around Hawaii, Guam, American Samoa, and the other US‐affiliated Pacific Islands. Although it remains unknown how much global warming will occur, the climate models are unequivocal that the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to warm this century. We constrain this uncertainty by quantifying climate changes for particular warming amounts, such as 1.5°C or 3°C of global warming relative to preindustrial conditions. The surface of both the Earth and the tropical Pacific, specifically, have already warmed by more than 0.5°C. However, it is unknown when the 1.5°C or 3°C global warming amounts will occur. Some uncertainty also remains about regional climate changes associated with the future warming, such as for rainfall around Hawaii and American Samoa, whereas there is more consensus among models about the future rainfall increasing near the equator as well as near Guam in the north‐western Pacific. Increasing equatorial rainfall is a consequence of that region projected to warm fastest and also suggests likely increasing climate variability affecting most tropical Pacific Islands. Key Points: CMIP6 projects increasing 21st‐century rainfall for the equatorial Pacific, and in a broad part of the tropical north‐western PacificRainfall changes are more uncertain for regions around many tropical Pacific Islands, such as Hawaii and American SamoaAssessing seasonal and interannual variability changes for particular warming amounts constrains uncertainty related to the global warming rate [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the intra-annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, are investigated by comparing monthly observations to the mean value of each year’s waxing and waning phase of the cycle. Results identify a previously unnoticed change between 1965 and 2004 during October in which October concentrations declined relative to the cycle’s mean value. Results confirm a previously noted change in spring (April), but unlike previous analyses, this result indicates that between 1965 and 2004 April concentrations rose relative to the cycle’s mean value. The timing of these changes is not caused by commonly recognized patterns of atmospheric circulation, such as ENSO events. Instead, these changes may be generated by asymmetric effects of warming. Warming in early spring may increase heterotrophic respiration relative to net primary production while warming in late summer/early fall may enhance net primary production relative to heterotrophic respiration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims Displacement of native plant species by non-native invaders may result from differences in their carbon economy, yet little is known regarding how variation in leaf traits influences native–invader dynamics across climate gradients. In Hawaii, one of the most heavily invaded biodiversity hotspots in the world, strong spatial variation in climate results from the complex topography, which underlies variation in traits that probably drives shifts in species interactions. Methods Using one of the most comprehensive trait data sets for Hawaii to date (91 species and four islands), we determined the extent and sources of variation (climate, species and species origin) in leaf traits, and used mixed models to examine differences between natives and non-native invasives. Key Results We detected significant differences in trait means, such that invasives were more resource acquisitive than natives over most of the climate gradients. However, we also detected trait convergence and a rank reversal (natives more resource acquisitive than invasives) in a sub-set of conditions. There was significant intraspecific trait variation (ITV) in leaf traits of natives and invasives, although invasives expressed significantly greater ITV than natives in water loss and photosynthesis. Species accounted for more trait variation than did climate for invasives, while the reverse was true for natives. Incorporating this climate-driven trait variation significantly improved the fit of models that compared natives and invasives. Lastly, in invasives, ITV was most strongly explained by spatial heterogeneity in moisture, whereas solar energy explains more ITV in natives. Conclusions Our results indicate that trait expression and ITV vary significantly between natives and invasives, and that this is mediated by climate. These findings suggest that although natives and invasives are functionally similar at the regional scale, invader success at local scales is contingent on climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant species with broad climatic ranges might be more vulnerable to climate change than previously appreciated due to intraspecific variation in climatic stress tolerance. In tropical forests, drought is increasingly frequent and severe, causing widespread declines and altering community dynamics. Yet, little is known about whether foundation tropical trees vary in drought tolerance throughout their distributions, and how intraspecific variation in drought tolerance might contribute to their vulnerability to climate change.We tested for local adaptation in seedling emergence and establishment with a full‐factorial reciprocal transplant experiment including 27 populations and 109,350 seeds along a 3,500 mm precipitation gradient for a widespread tropical foundation tree, Metrosideros polymorpha, in Hawaii. To more precisely relate seedling performance to soil moisture, we conducted a complementary greenhouse experiment to test responses of the same focal populations to simulated drought.In the reciprocal transplant experiment, we observed significant variation among populations and sites in germination and seedling establishment rates. Overall, there was a significant link between historical rainfall of populations and their performance under current rainfall at the study sites consistent with local adaptation. In particular, populations from historically wet sites demonstrated lower germination rates in currently dry sites compared to wet field sites, while populations from historically dry sites germinated well across all sites, with particularly high germination in dry sites. In the greenhouse, seedlings from wet populations survived fewer days without water, and succumbed at wetter soil conditions than populations from historically dry sites, corroborating results from the field experiment.Synthesis. While climate change models project the greatest drying trends for historically dry areas in Hawaii, even moderate drying of wet sites could significantly reduce Metrosideros polymorpha recruitment given the sensitivity of seedlings to very slight changes in water regimes. Thus, although M. polymorpha demonstrates high seedling drought tolerance in some populations, providing evidence of resilience at the species‐scale, there are nonetheless vulnerable populations that will likely decline under climate change. Our approach demonstrates that even trees with high dispersal abilities can show significant clines in drought tolerance, and suggests that similar intraspecific variation might be an important consideration for other tropical foundational tree species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding life history traits is important for assessing potential invasiveness, particularly in the context of the future spread of invasive species under climate change. A number of species of Veronicellidae have been introduced beyond their native ranges and have become invasive. Two of these species, Veronicella cubensis and Laevicaulis alte , are widespread in Hawaii, yet little is known of their life histories. This study of growth and reproduction and their relation to temperature in these two species was undertaken using laboratory stocks derived from individuals collected in Hawaii. More data were collected for V. cubensis than for L. alte because of difficulty maintaining the latter in the lab. Veronicella cubensis grew faster at 22 °C than at 27 °C. At 22 °C, the mean age at which V. cubensis first mated was 203 d, and the mean age when eggs were first laid was 226 d. Mating in V. cubensis lasted more than a day, and it took up to 4 d to lay an egg mass. Mating took less than a day in L. alte. No self-fertilization was recorded in V. cubensis , but a single L. alte individual maintained alone from hatching laid fertilized eggs. Sperm storage after a single mating in V. cubensis was estimated to last up to 6 months. In both species the time for eggs to hatch was shorter at 27 °C than at 22 °C. Hatchability was between 74 and 93%. Veronicella cubensis lived for at least 2 years and was estimated to produce at least 400 eggs over its life. Climate warming will probably lead to expansion of the ranges of V. cubensis and L. alte to higher elevations in Hawaii and elsewhere. Growth and reproduction will also be affected by a warming climate and therefore impact the success of these invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hawaii experienced record-high sea levels during 2017, which followed the 2015 strong El Niño and coincided with weak trade winds in the tropical northeastern Pacific. The record sea levels were associated with a combination of processes, an important contributing factor of which was the persistent high sea level (~10 cm above normal) over a large region stretching between Hawaii and Mexico. High sea levels at Mexico are known to occur during strong El Niño as the coastal thermocline deepens. Planetary wave theory predicts that these coastal anomalies propagate westward into the basin interior; however, high sea levels at Hawaii do not occur consistently following strong El Niño events. In particular, Hawaii sea levels remained near normal following the previous strong El Niño of 1997. The processes controlling whether Hawaii sea levels rise after El Niño have so far remained unknown. Atmosphere-forced ocean model experiments show that anomalous surface cooling, controlled by variable trade winds, impacts sea level via mixed layer density, explaining much of the difference in Hawaiian sea level response after the two recent strong El Niño events. In climate model projections with greenhouse warming, more frequent weak trade winds following El Niño events are expected, suggesting that the occurrence of high sea levels at Hawaii will increase as oceanic anomalies more often traverse the basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Complex socio-ecological issues, such as climate change have historically been addressed through technical problem solving methods. Yet today, climate science approaches are increasingly accounting for the roles of diverse social perceptions, experiences, cultural norms, and worldviews. In support of this shift, we developed a research program on Hawaiʻi Island that utilizes knowledge coproduction to integrate the diverse worldviews of natural and cultural resource managers, policy professionals, and researchers within actionable science products. Through their work, local field managers regularly experience discrete land and waterscapes. Additionally, in highly interconnected rural communities, such as Hawaiʻi Island, managers often participate in the social norms and values of communities that utilize these ecosystems. Such local manager networks offer powerful frameworks within which to co-develop and implement actionable science. We interviewed a diverse set of local managers with the aim of incorporating their perspectives into the development of a collaborative climate change research agenda that builds upon existing professional networks utilized by managers and scientists while developing new research products. We report our manager needs assessment, the development process of our climate change program, our interactive forums, and our ongoing research products. Our needs assessment showed that the managers’ primary source of information were other professional colleagues, and our in-person forums informed us that local managers are very interested in interacting with a wider range of networks to build upon their management capacities. Our initial programmatic progress suggests that co-created research products and in-person forums strengthen the capacities of local managers to adapt to change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Spatially explicit forest carbon (C) monitoring aids conservation and climate change mitigation efforts, yet few approaches have been developed specifically for the highly heterogeneous landscapes of oceanic island chains that continue to undergo rapid and extensive forest C change. We developed an approach for rapid mapping of aboveground C density (ACD; units = Mg or metric tons C ha-1) on islands at a spatial resolution of 30 m (0.09 ha) using a combination of cost-effective airborne LiDAR data and full-coverage satellite data. We used the approach to map forest ACD across the main Hawaiian Islands, comparing C stocks within and among islands, in protected and unprotected areas, and among forests dominated by native and invasive species. Results: Total forest aboveground C stock of the Hawaiian Islands was 36 Tg, and ACD distributions were extremely heterogeneous both within and across islands. Remotely sensed ACD was validated against U.S. Forest Service FIA plot inventory data (R2 = 0.67; RMSE = 30.4 Mg C ha-1). Geospatial analyses indicated the critical importance of forest type and canopy cover as predictors of mapped ACD patterns. Protection status was a strong determinant of forest C stock and density, but we found complex environmentally mediated responses of forest ACD to alien plant invasion. Conclusions: A combination of one-time airborne LiDAR data acquisition and satellite monitoring provides effective forest C mapping in the highly heterogeneous landscapes of the Hawaiian Islands. Our statistical approach yielded key insights into the drivers of ACD variation, and also makes possible future assessments of C storage change, derived on a repeat basis from free satellite data, without the need for additional LiDAR data. Changes in C stocks and densities of oceanic islands can thus be continually assessed in the face of rapid environmental changes such as biological invasions, drought, fire and land use. Such forest monitoring information can be used to promote sustainable forest use and conservation on islands in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been configured as a regional climate model for the Hawaii region (HRCM) to assess the uncertainties associated with the pseudo-global warming (PGW) downscaling method using different warming increments from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model experiments. Results from 15-km downscaling experiments using warming increments from 10 individual CMIP5 models for the two warming scenarios representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) are compared with experiments using multimodel mean warming increments. The results show that changes in 2-m temperatures, 10-m wind speed, rainfall, water vapor path, and trade wind inversion vary significantly among the individual model experiments. This translates into large uncertainties when picking one particular CMIP5 model to provide the warming increments for dynamical downscaling in the Hawaii region. The simulations also show that, despite the large interexperiment spread, a single downscaling experiment using multimodel mean warming increments gives very similar results to the ensemble mean of downscaling experiments using warming increments obtained from 10 individual CMIP5 models. Robust changes of the projected climate by the end of the twenty-first century in the Hawaii region shown by most downscaling experiments include increasing 2-m temperatures with stronger warming at higher elevations, a large increase in precipitable water, and an increase in the number of days with a trade wind inversion (TWI). Furthermore, most experiments agree on a reduction in TWI height and an increase in the TWI strength. Uncertainties in the projected changes in rainfall and 10-m wind speed are large and there is little consensus among the individual downscaling experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Accelerating sea-level rise associated with global climate change will affect sedimentary processes on coral reefs and other shoreline environments by increasing energy and sediment resuspension. On reefs, sedimentation is known to increase coral stress and bleaching as particles that settle on coral surfaces interfere with photosynthesis and feeding, and turbidity induced by suspended sediment reduces incident light levels. Using relationships developed from observations of wave orbital velocity, water-surface elevation, and suspended-sediment concentration on a fringing reef flat of Molokai, Hawaii, predictions of the average daily maximum in suspended-sediment concentration increase from ∼11 mg/l to ∼20 mg/l with 20 cm sea-level rise. The duration of time concentrations exceeds 10 mg/l increases from 9% to 37%. An evaluation of the reduction of wave energy flux through breaking and frictional dissipation across the reef flat shows an increase of ∼80% relative to the present will potentially reach the shoreline as sea level increases by 20 cm. Where the shoreline exists on low, flat terrain, the increased energy could cause significant erosion of the shoreline. Considering the sediment budget, the sediment flux is predicted to increase and removal of fine-grained sediment may be expedited on some fringing reefs, and sediment in storage on the inner reef could ultimately be reduced. However, increased shoreline erosion may add sediment and offset removal from the reef flat. The shifts in sediment availability and transport that will occur as result of a modest increase in sea level have wide application to fringing coral reefs elsewhere, as well as other shoreline environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past century, tide gauges in Hawaii have recorded interdecadal sea level variations that are coherent along the island chain. The generation of this signal and its relationship to other interdecadal variability are investigated, with a focus on the last decade. Hawaii sea level is correlated with sea surface height (SSH) over a significant portion of the North Pacific Ocean, and with the Pacific–North America (PNA) index, which represents teleconnections between tropical and midlatitude atmospheric variations. Similar variations extend well below the thermocline in World Ocean Atlas temperature. Comparison with NCEP reanalysis wind and pressure shows that high (low) sea level phases around Hawaii are associated with an increase (decrease) in the strength of the Aleutian low. The associated wind stress curl pattern is dynamically consistent with observed sea level anomalies, suggesting that sea level at Hawaii represents large-scale changes that are directly wind-forced in concert with the PNA. Atmospheric modulation, as opposed to Rossby wave propagation, may explain the linkage of Hawaii sea level to North American sea level and ENSO events. A wind-forced, baroclinic Rossby wave model replicates some aspects of the interdecadal SSH variations and their spatial structure but fails to predict them in detail near Hawaii. The accuracy of wind products in this region and over this time period may be a limiting factor. Variations in mixed layer temperature due to surface heat flux anomalies may also contribute to the interdecadal sea level signal at Hawaii. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]