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Application for Research Ethics Committee (REC) approval and the conduct of medical research is paper intensive. This retrospective study examined all applications to a single REC in the south of England over one year. It estimated the mass of paper used, comparing the proportional paper consumption of different trial types and during different stages of the research process, quantifying the consumption in terms of carbon dioxide emissions. In 2009, 68 trials were submitted to the REC. Total paper consumption for the REC process and study conduct was 176,150 sheets of A4 paper (879 kg), equivalent to an estimated 11.5 million sheets (88 tonnes, 2,100 trees) a year for the UK; the REC process accounted for 26.4%. REC applications and the conduct of approved trials generate considerable environmental impact through paper consumption contributing to the NHS's carbon footprint. Paper use might be reduced through the implementation of digital technologies and revised research methods, namely changing attitudes in both researchers and ethics committees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme high temperatures are associated with increased incidences of rail buckles. Climate change is predicted to alter the temperature profile in the United Kingdom with extreme high temperatures becoming an increasingly frequent occurrence. The result is that the number of buckles, and therefore delays, expected peryear will increase if the track is maintained to the current standard. This paper uses a combination of analogue techniques and a weather generator to quantify the increase in the number of buckles and rail related delays in the southeast of the United Kingdom. The paper concludes by assigning a cost to the resultant rise in delays and damage before making recommendations on how these effects can be mitigated. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disposable paper cups comprise typical single-use plastic items, as they are lined internally with a thin plastic coating for waterproofing. They are consumed at a staggering rate worldwide, with the UK alone consuming around 7 million cups daily, thus annually producing around 30,000 tonnes of paper cup waste. Contrary to popular belief, less than 1 in 400 paper cups is currently recycled in the UK, which is in stark contrast to the waste hierarchy and the European Commission's ambitious Circular Economy Action Plan. Paper cups typically end up in landfill sites or even improperly disposed of, contributing to (micro)plastic waste and potentially polluting the world's oceans. The implications of the latter are not fully known yet and cannot be quantified by existing life cycle impact assessment methods. By employing the life cycle assessment methodology, UK's annual carbon footprint from paper cup consumption was found to be 75 kt of carbon dioxide equivalents, which is similar to that of manufacturing 11,500 mid-size passenger cars. Globally, their environmental footprint was found to be comparable to that of some 1.5 M average European inhabitants, indicating the nature and extent of the single-use plastics problem, which paper cups are just a typical example of. Paper cup recycling could reduce this environmental footprint by up to 40%, whereas switching to reusable cups appears to be more environmentally sustainable, achieving a threefold reduction in carbon emissions, which at global scale is more than twice Malta's annual carbon footprint. Results indicate that consumerism along with small daily choices, such as using reusable cups or bags instead of their disposable counterparts, could play a huge role in climate change. At policy level, no concrete measures to curb the superfluous consumption of paper cups, as well as of other single-use plastic items that are becoming increasingly ubiquitous, have materialised. Furthermore, it appears that decision- and policy-makers tend to step in to curtail wasteful and polluting practices only when environmental problems have started to generate widespread concern, instead of undertaking preventative policy measures. Image 1 • The environmental sustainability of disposable paper cups was examined. • 75 kt CO 2eq are emitted annually in the UK and 7.5 Mt CO 2eq globally. • Switching to reusable cups axes carbon emissions by threefold. • Robust LCIA methods should be introduced to account for (micro)plastic pollution. • Existing policy on single use plastics appears to be too little too late. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to effectively model the potential impacts of future climate change, there is a requirement for climate data inputs which (a) are of high spatial and temporal resolution, (b) explore a range of future climate change scenarios, (c) are consistent with historical observations in the historical period, and (d) provide an exploration of climate model uncertainty. This paper presents a suite of climate projections for the United Kingdom that conform to these requirements: CHESS-SCAPE. CHESS-SCAPE is a 1 km resolution dataset containing 11 near-surface meteorological variables that can be used to as input to many different impact models. The variables are available at several time resolutions, from daily to decadal means, for the years 1980–2080. It was derived from the state-of-the art regional climate projections in the United Kingdom Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) regional climate model (RCM) 12 km ensemble, downscaled to 1 km using a combination of physical and empirical methods to account for local topographic effects. CHESS-SCAPE has four ensemble members, which were chosen to span the range of temperature and precipitation change in the UKCP18 ensemble, representing the ensemble climate model uncertainty. CHESS-SCAPE consists of projections for four emissions scenarios, given by the Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5, which were derived from the UKCP18 RCM RCP8.5 scenarios using time shifting and pattern scaling. These correspond to UK annual warming projections of between 0.9–1.9 K for RCP2.6 up to 2.8–4.3 K for RCP8.5 between 1980–2000 and 2060–2080. Little change in annual precipitation is projected, but larger changes in seasonal precipitation are seen with some scenarios projecting large increases in precipitation in the winter (up to 22 %) and large decreases in the summer (up to - 39 %). All four RCP scenarios and ensemble members are also provided with bias correction, using the CHESS-met historical gridded dataset as a baseline. With high spatial and temporal resolution, an extensive range of warming scenarios and multiple ensemble members, CHESS-SCAPE provides a comprehensive data resource for modellers of climate change impacts in the UK. The CHESS-SCAPE data are available for download from the NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis: 10.5285/8194b416cbee482b89e0dfbe17c5786c. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do 'green' environmental concerns – such as about biodiversity, climate change, pollution – deter citizens from having children? This paper reports the first longitudinal evidence consistent with that increasingly discussed hypothesis. It follows through time a random sample of thousands of initially childless men and women in the UK. The paper shows that those individuals who are committed to a green lifestyle are found to be substantially less likely to go on later to have offspring. Probit and Weibull survival models are estimated. The results are robust to controlling for people's age, education, income, marital status, mental health, life satisfaction, optimism, and physical health. The paper's key estimated effect-size is substantial. A person entirely unconcerned about environmental behaviour is estimated to be just over 50% more likely to go on to have a child than a deeply committed environmentalist. • Will fertility decline because humans become so concerned about environmental damage? • Using UK data on thousands of randomly selected young adults, we provide the first longitudinal evidence that those who have environmental concerns and act in a 'green' way go on to have fewer children. • The estimated effect-size is large. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Appropriate adaptation planning is contingent upon information about the potential future impacts of climate change, and hydrological impact assessments are of particular importance. The UKSCAPE-G2G datasets were produced, as part of the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) UK-SCAPE (UK Status, Change and Projections of the Environment) programme, to contribute to this information requirement. They use the Grid-to-Grid (G2G) national-scale hydrological model configured for both Great Britain and Northern Ireland (and the parts of the Republic of Ireland that drain to rivers in NI). Six separate datasets are provided, for two sets of driving data – one observation-based (1980–2011) and one climate-projection-based (1980–2080) – for both river flows and soil moisture on 1 km × 1 km grids across Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The river flow datasets include grids of monthly mean flow, annual maxima of daily mean flow, and annual minima of 7 d mean flow (m 3 s -1). The soil moisture datasets are grids of monthly mean soil moisture content (m water / m soil), which should be interpreted as depth-integrated values for the whole soil column. The climate-projection-based datasets are produced using data from the 12-member 12 km regional climate model ensemble of the latest UK climate projections (UKCP18), which uses RCP8.5 emissions. The production of the datasets is described, along with details of the file format and how the data should be used. Example maps are provided, as well as simple UK-wide analyses of the various outputs. These suggest potential future decreases in summer flows, annual minimum 7 d flows, and summer/autumn soil moisture, along with possible future increases in winter flows and annual maximum flows. References are given for published papers providing more detailed spatial analyses, and some further potential uses of the data are suggested. The datasets are listed in Table 1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to effectively model the potential impacts of future climate change, there is a requirement for climate data inputs which are a) high spatial and temporal resolution; b) explore a range of future climate change scenarios; c) are consistent with historical observations in the historical period; and d) provide an exploration of climate model uncertainty. This paper presents a suite of climate projections for the United Kingdom that conform to these requirements: CHESS-SCAPE. CHESS-SCAPE is a 1 km resolution dataset containing eleven near-surface meteorological variables that can be used to as input to many different impacts models. The variables are available at several time resolutions, from daily to decadal means, for the years 1980-2080. It was derived from the state-of the art regional climate projections in the United Kingdom Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) Regional Climate Model (RCM) UKCP18 12 km ensemble, downscaled to 1 km using a combination of physical and empirical methods to account for local topographic effects. CHESS-SCAPE has four ensemble members, which were chosen to span the range of temperature and precipitation change in the UKCP18 ensemble, representing the ensemble climate model uncertainty. CHESS-SCAPE consists of projections for four emissions scenarios, given by the Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5, which were derived from the UKCP18 RCM RCP8.5 scenarios using time shifting and pattern scaling. These correspond to UK annual warming projections of between 0.9-1.9 K for RCP2.6 up to 2.8-4.3 K for RCP8.5 between 1980-2000 and 2060-2080. Little change in annual precipitation is projected, but larger changes in seasonal precipitation are seen with some scenarios projecting large increases in precipitation in the winter (up to 22 %) and large decreases in the summer (up to -39 %). All four RCP scenarios and ensemble members are also provided with bias-correction, using the CHESS-met historical gridded dataset as a baseline. With high spatial and temporal resolution, extensive range of warming scenarios and multiple ensemble members, CHESS-SCAPE provides a comprehensive data resource for modellers of climate change impacts in the UK. The CHESS-SCAPE data are available for download from the NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis: http://dx.doi.org/10.5285/8194b416cbee482b89e0dfbe17c5786c (Robinson et al., 2022). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Appropriate adaptation planning is contingent upon information about the potential future impacts of climate change, and hydrological impact assessments are of particular importance. The UKSCAPE-G2G datasets were produced, as part of the NERC UK-SCAPE programme, to contribute to this information requirement. They use the Grid-to-Grid (G2G) national-scale hydrological model configured for both Great Britain and Northern Ireland (and the parts of the Republic of Ireland that drain to rivers in NI). Six separate datasets are provided, for two sets of driving data -- one observation-based (1980-2011) and one climate projection-based (1980-2080) -- for both river flows and soil moisture on 1 km x 1 km grids across GB and NI. The river flow datasets include grids of monthly mean flow, annual maxima of daily mean flow, and annual minima of 7-day mean flow (m³s-1). The soil moisture datasets are grids of monthly mean soil moisture content (m water/m soil), which should be interpreted as depth-integrated values for the whole soil column. The climate projection-based datasets are produced using data from the 12-member 12km regional climate model ensemble of the latest UK climate projections (UKCP18), which uses RCP8.5 emissions. The production of the datasets is described, along with details of the file format, and how the data should be used. Example maps are provided, as well as simple UK-wide analyses of the various outputs. These suggest potential future decreases in summer flows, annual minimum 7-day flows, and summer/autumn soil moisture, along with possible future increases in winter flows and annual maximum flows. References are given for published papers providing more detailed spatial analyses, and some further potential uses of the data are suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent extreme weather events have had severe impacts on UK crop yields, and so there is concern that a greater frequency of extremes could affect crop production in a changing climate. Here we investigate the impacts of future climate change on wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop globally, in a temperate country with currently favourable wheat-growing conditions. Historically, following the plateau of UK wheat yields since the 1990s, we find there has been a recent significant increase in wheat yield volatility, which is only partially explained by seasonal metrics of temperature and precipitation across key wheat growth stages (foundation, construction and production). We find climate impacts on wheat yields are strongest in years with compound weather extremes across multiple growth stages (e.g. frost and heavy rainfall). To assess how these conditions might evolve in the future, we analyse the latest 2.2 km UK Climate Projections (UKCP Local): on average, the foundation growth stage (broadly 1 October to 9 April) is likely to become warmer and wetter, while the construction (10 April to 10 June) and production (11 June to 26 July) stages are likely to become warmer and slightly drier. Statistical wheat yield projections, obtained by driving the regression model with UKCP Local simulations of precipitation and temperature for the UK's three main wheat-growing regions, indicate continued growth of crop yields in the coming decades. Significantly warmer projected winter night temperatures offset the negative impacts of increasing rainfall during the foundation stage, while warmer day temperatures and drier conditions are generally beneficial to yields in the production stage. This work suggests that on average, at the regional scale, climate change is likely to have more positive impacts on UK wheat yields than previously considered. Against this background of positive change, however, our work illustrates that wheat farming in the UK is likely to move outside of the climatic envelope that it has previously experienced, increasing the risk of unseen weather conditions such as intense local thunderstorms or prolonged droughts, which are beyond the scope of this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this last paper in a series of four, we will enquire into key developments affecting economic growth in the near future, consider potential restructuring effects that current and future economic events could cause and survey suggestions from literature for long-term sustainability of growth trends. Discussing climate change, COVID-19 economic recovery, automation, and future growth with a view to global development, we explore where growth may take economies, and how we may foster growth in a rapidly changing international economic landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maximising resource‐use efficiency, productivity and environmental sustainability are all fundamental requirements to raise global food production by ~70 per cent in order to feed a world population of ~9.7 billion people by 2050. Perhaps the most vital resource within our capacity to achieve this goal is our soil. Broadly, the fundamental question concerns whether or not satisfying this production demand will accelerate soil degradation, climate change, and the loss of soil carbon stocks. This paper builds upon the outputs of the UK Charity 'Food & Farming Futures' (chaired by Lord Curry of Kirkharle) virtual workshop held on 23 March 2021, entitled 'Capturing the Potential of Soil'. The event focussed on the link between soil health, primarily soil organic carbon (SOC), and agricultural productivity. Supported with commentaries by Professor Pete Smith (University of Aberdeen and Science Director of the Scottish Climate Change Centre of Expertise) and Professor Steve McGrath (Head of Sustainable Agricultural Sciences at Rothamsted Research), specific focus will be given to the research challenges within the UK's ability to improve soil health and functionality, the implementation priorities that must be held in order to improve soil management by 2050 and what the potential co‐benefits could be. These co‐benefits were scattered across environmental, economic, social and political issues, yet they may be summarised into six primary co‐benefits: developing natural capital, climate change mitigation, carbon trading, improvements in crop yield, animal performance and human health (nutrition). Additionally, the main barriers to improved soil management practices are centred on knowledge exchange‐regarding agri‐environmental techniques—whilst the most impactful solutions rely on soil monitoring, reporting and verification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe the approach taken to develop the United Kingdom's first community Earth system model, UKESM1. This is a joint effort involving the Met Office and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), representing the U.K. academic community. We document our model development procedure and the subsequent U.K. submission to CMIP6, based on a traceable hierarchy of coupled physical and Earth system models. UKESM1 builds on the well‐established, world‐leading HadGEM models of the physical climate system and incorporates cutting‐edge new representations of aerosols, atmospheric chemistry, terrestrial carbon, and nitrogen cycles and an advanced model of ocean biogeochemistry. A high‐level metric of overall performance shows that both models, HadGEM3‐GC3.1 and UKESM1, perform better than most other CMIP6 models so far submitted for a broad range of variables. We point to much more extensive evaluation performed in other papers in this special issue. The merits of not using any forced climate change simulations within our model development process are discussed. First results from HadGEM3‐GC3.1 and UKESM1 include the emergent climate sensitivity (5.5 and 5.4 K, respectively) which is high relative to the current range of CMIP5 models. The role of cloud microphysics and cloud‐aerosol interactions in driving the climate sensitivity, and the systematic approach taken to understand this role, is highlighted in other papers in this special issue. We place our findings within the broader modeling landscape indicating how our understanding of key processes driving higher sensitivity in the two U.K. models seems to align with results from a number of other CMIP6 models. Plain Language Summary: The United Kingdom has taken a community approach to model development and delivery of simulations to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The papers in this special issue characterize and evaluate the U.K. models and highlight emerging properties of the models, such as the climate sensitivity. Understanding of the reasons for an increase in sensitivity in these new models is highlighted here, and similarities to our findings from other modeling centers are discussed. Key Points: The United Kingdom has developed its first community Earth system model and delivered a traceable hierarchy of models to CMIP6We applied a process‐based evaluation strategy in model development but chose not to use historic trends or measures of climate responseThe U.K. models exhibit higher climate sensitivity than seen in CMIP5 arising in part from more positive cloud feedbacks [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, there has been a risen interest in heat recovery systems for building applications due to concerns about the energy crisis and global climate change. In this paper, the intention to understand the performance of a window thermoelectric heat pump/heat recovery system (Ecopump) for heating has been developed. An overview to the prototype design, heat transfer model, experimental parameters and environmental feasibility is discussed. The variation of MATLAB modelling results followed the same regularity as the experimental results. The MATLAB model along with Revit has been used to simulate the Ecopump's performance when installed in a sustainable house in the UK. From the calculation, Ecopump can provide 670 kWh heating energy and reduce 90.6 kg CO2 emissions per year. The proposed Ecopump system combined with window frame could be a promising technology to enhance space heating for domestic buildings while reducing energy consumption during daily ventilation. Further in situ experiments should be conducted to explore its comprehensive performance in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The saltmarsh carbon storage potential is a key topic in blue carbon research and climate policy. Ecosystem service valuations provide valuable information to policymakers for habitat management and climate change mitigation policies. Yet, only few saltmarsh valuation studies have included the carbon storage service in the UK context. This paper investigates how the public values saltmarsh ecosystem services, focussing on the carbon storage service. We used a choice experiment to elicit the willingness to pay (WTP) of a representative sample of the Scottish public to support interventions that would maintain or improve the provision of these services. Furthermore, we tested the effect of information on individuals' preferences and WTP with a split sample approach where one group received a treatment in the form of additional information. We found that (i) all attributes had a significant influence on individuals' choices; (ii) both groups had, on average, a positive marginal WTP for all presented ecosystem services; (iii) the treated sample had, on average, no significantly different marginal WTP for carbon storage than the control group. This paper adds to the limited literature on the saltmarsh carbon storage ecosystem service and demonstrates a developed nation's public's openness to nature-based climate change mitigation solutions. [Display omitted] • The Scottish public on average prefers saltmarsh management over the status quo. • Providing additional information reduced heterogeneity in WTP for carbon storage. • Most respondents preferred an improvement of all saltmarsh ecosystem services. • Therefore management should focus on both climate change mitigation and adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Overheating regulations and calculation methods in 26 European countries were compared. • Most of the existing calculation methods are outdated and do not fit climate-proof buildings. • France requires a mixed-mode operation of naturally ventilated households. • The UK developed a heatwave-based calculation approach. • Comfort-based, multi-zonal, and time-integrated calculation approaches are needed. With the ongoing significance of overheating calculations in the residential building sector, building codes such as the European Energy Performance of Building Directive (EPBD) are essential for harmonizing the indicators and performance thresholds. This paper investigates Europe's overheating calculation methods, indicators, and thresholds and evaluates their ability to address climate change and heat events. e study aims to identify the suitability of existing overheating calculation methods and propose recommendations for the EPBD. The study results provide a cross-sectional overview of twenty-six European countries. The most influential overheating calculation criteria are listed the best approaches are ranked. The paper provides a thorough comparative assessment and recommendations to align current calculations with climate-sensitive metrics. The results suggest a framework and key performance indicators that are comfort-based, multi-zonal, and time-integrated to calculate overheating and modify the EU's next building energy efficiency regulations. The results can help policymakers and building professionals to develop the next overheating calculation framework and approach for the future development of climate-proof and resilient residential buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the spatial variation of area‐orientated annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR), represented by well‐fitted generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions, over the last century in Great Britain (GB) and Australia (AU) with respect to three spatial properties: geographic locations, sizes, and shapes of the region‐of‐interest (ROI). The results show that the spatial variation of GEV location‐scale parameters is dominated by geographic locations and area sizes. In GB, there is an eastward‐decreasing banded pattern compared with a concentrically increasing pattern from the middle to coasts in AU. The parameters tend to decrease with increased area sizes in both studied regions. Although the impact of the ROI shapes is insignificant, the round‐shaped regions usually have higher‐valued parameters than the elongated ones. These findings provide a new perspective to understand the heterogeneity of extreme rainfall distribution over space driven by the complex interactions between climate, geographical features, and the practical sampling approaches. Key Points: Rainfall series are extracted and processed from more than 11,000 regions of interest over the last 100 years in Great Britain and Australia.Spatial distribution of extreme rainfall modeled qualitatively and quantitatively shows impact from location, size, and shape of regions.Methods and findings provide new perspectives for understanding the heterogeneous nature of climate variability and climatic change impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In light of the global energy and climate crises, integration of low-carbon technologies into energy systems is being considered to mitigate the high energy costs and carbon footprint. The wide range of available capacities, efficiencies, and investment costs of these technologies and their different possible operating schedules can unlock several pathways towards decarbonisation. This paper presents an optimisation framework for a public healthcare facility to determine the optimal operation schedule of the site's energy system. A detailed techno-economic analysis of low-carbon power generation, conversion, and energy storage technologies that can be incorporated into the system based on real historical data was carried out for different scenarios. The results reveal that a heat pump with a capacity of 1800 kW can replace gas boilers on-site to meet the heat demand while recovering the investment in 5 years and providing an operating and carbon cost saving of 22.47% compared to the base case. The analysis shows that a more electrified mode of operation is favoured during high gas prices, thus making electrical energy storage more attractive than thermal energy storage. While handling real data, the optimisation algorithm was sensitised to discriminate conventional energy supplies from clean energy sources by considering their carbon impact so that it minimises energy bills in a smart and eco-friendly way. The optimisation algorithm and the subsequent techno-economic analysis provide a comprehensive framework to decision-makers for facilitating energy investment decisions. The framework can be used based on the short and long term goals of the energy system, visualising the evolution of financial benefits over equipment lifetime, and understanding the environmental impacts of integrating renewable energy. • Heat pumps are the most favourable decarbonisation technology for the hospital. • The moderate variations in energy demand limit the scope of energy storage. • Fuel price surcharge favours EES over TES and reduces payback period of retrofits. • PVT's savings scale linearly with roof space until 3 times the available capacity. • Monetising the carbon footprint shortens the DPP of clean retrofit technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the face of a changing climate, a growing number of construction firms are adopting carbon reduction targets on individual projects and across their portfolios. In the wake of the Paris Agreement, some firms are seeking a means of aligning their targets with sectoral, national and international mitigation commitments. There are numerous ways by which such an alignment can be achieved, each requiring different assumptions. Using data from the UK construction industry, this paper reviews current company commitments and progress in carbon mitigation; analyses the unique challenges in aligning construction targets, and presents a series of possible sectoral decarbonisation trajectories. The results highlight the disparity between current company targets and the range of possible trajectories. It is clear that a cross-industry dialogue is urgently required to establish an appropriate response that delivers both a widely-accepted target trajectory and a plan for its delivery. This paper is intended to stimulate and support this necessary debate by illustrating the impact of different methodological assumptions and highlighting the critical features of an appropriate response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Global Coupled 3 (GC3) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Among other applications, GC3 is the basis of the United Kingdom's submission to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). This paper documents the model components that make up the configuration (although the scientific descriptions of these components are in companion papers) and details the coupling between them. The performance of GC3 is assessed in terms of mean biases and variability in long climate simulations using present‐day forcing. The suitability of the configuration for predictability on shorter time scales (weather and seasonal forecasting) is also briefly discussed. The performance of GC3 is compared against GC2, the previous Met Office coupled model configuration, and against an older configuration (HadGEM2‐AO) which was the submission to CMIP5. In many respects, the performance of GC3 is comparable with GC2, however, there is a notable improvement in the Southern Ocean warm sea surface temperature bias which has been reduced by 75%, and there are improvements in cloud amount and some aspects of tropical variability. Relative to HadGEM2‐AO, many aspects of the present‐day climate are improved in GC3 including tropospheric and stratospheric temperature structure, most aspects of tropical and extratropical variability and top‐of‐atmosphere and surface fluxes. A number of outstanding errors are identified including a residual asymmetric sea surface temperature bias (cool northern hemisphere, warm Southern Ocean), an overly strong global hydrological cycle and insufficient European blocking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact that climate change may have on the lodging of oats in the Republic of Ireland and the UK. Through the consideration of a novel lodging model representing the motion of an oat plant due to the interaction of wind and rain and integrating future predictions of wind and rainfall due to climate change, appropriate conclusions have been made. In order to provide meteorological data for the lodging model, wind and rainfall inputs are analysed using 30 years' time series corresponding to peak lodging months (June and July) from 38 meteorological stations in the United Kingdom and the Irish Republic, which enables the relevant probability density functions (PDFs) to be established. Moreover, climate data for the next six decades in the British Isles produced by UK climate change projections (UKCP18) are analysed, and future wind and rainfall PDFs are obtained. It is observed that the predicted changes likely to occur during the key growing period (June to July) in the next 30 years are in keeping with variations, which can occur due to different husbandry treatments/plant varieties. In addition, the utility of a double exponential function for representing the rainfall probability has been observed with appropriate values for the constants given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biscuits are a major product category in the global confectionary sector. Despite this, their environmental impacts are poorly characterised. Therefore, this paper sets out to evaluate the life cycle environmental sustainability of the following widely-consumed types of biscuit, both at the product and sectoral levels: crackers, low fat/sugar, semi-sweet, chocolate-coated and sandwich biscuits with chocolate or vanilla cream. The results obtained through life cycle assessment demonstrate that, in addition to being healthier, low fat/sugar biscuits have the lowest impacts across most of the 18 categories considered. Chocolate-coated biscuits are environmentally the least sustainable. The most significant life cycle stage for all types is the raw materials production, causing 41%–61% of the total impacts, with flour, sugar and palm oil being the key hotspots. Replacing palm with rapeseed oil would improve five impacts but worsen another five, including a 34% increase in agricultural land occupation and marine eutrophication. Therefore, the cultivation and production of palm oil, rather than its replacement, should be targeted for improvements. The second most crucial stage is manufacturing, contributing up to 54% of the impacts, followed by transport with up to 35%. Reducing energy consumption by 25% in manufacturing would reduce primary energy demand by 8%–12%, fossil fuel depletion by 9%–12% and global warming potential by 6%–9%. The latter would increase by 55% if land use change related to cocoa was involved, despite a very small amount of cocoa in the biscuits (∼1%). The analysis at a sectoral level in the UK, the leading consumer of biscuits in Europe, reveals that biscuits contribute 7.4% of primary energy demand and 0.5% of greenhouse gas emissions of the whole UK food sector. These results can help guide manufacturers in mitigating the hotspots in the supply chain and consumers in selecting environmentally more sustainable biscuits. • The environmental sustainability of six types of biscuit is evaluated for the first time. • Low fat/sugar biscuits have the lowest impacts and chocolate-coated the highest. • Global warming potential of chocolate biscuits is 55% higher with land use change. • Flour, sugar and palm oil are the key hotpots, followed by biscuits manufacturing. • Biscuits contribute 7.4% of energy demand and 0.5% of GWP of the UK food sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Mudflats conditions in the UK are unfavourable and managing them is a challenge. • Benthic species and shorebirds can be used as indicators of mudflat conditions. • Shannon's diversity index and AMBI results may provide different results. • A lack of monitoring data for UK mudflats makes effective conservation difficult. Intertidal mudflats are highly productive coastal habitats, serving as a transition zone between terrestrial and marine ecosystems and providing a wealth of ecosystem services, including providing nursery and feeding grounds for many species of conservation and commercial importance. These habitats are important for wintering shorebirds and waders, which depend on them for food, nesting, and migration. Their importance was formally recognised in 1971 following the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of International Importance, yet their conservation status remains largely uncertain as they are difficult to survey, and a complete understanding of their complex biophysical processes has yet to be established. While intertidal mudflats are found all around the UK coastline, there are few routine field surveys of these habitats, making effective conservation in the face of rising anthropogenic and climate pressures challenging. Marine protected areas (MPAs) across the UK list mudflats and sandflats not covered by seawater at low tide as a designation feature separate from saltmarshes, but they are often managed together – where management exists. A lack of resources has resulted in several paper parks around the UK, where MPAs are designated but not adequately monitored or managed. This study explores the use of population data of benthic species and shorebirds as a proxy for temporal changes in mudflat conditions, focusing on two MPAs in the Irish Sea, Strangford Lough in Northern Ireland, and the Solway Firth in Scotland/England. It finds that the two methods together can provide information useful to support MPA management, but this approach is hampered by poor availability of sufficient data. Such data limitation can impact what it means to achieve or maintain favourable conditions for these habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the potential for incorporation of human commercial building design modelling into the pig production industry. During the last decades pig building design has relied heavily on building manufacturers compared to human commercial buildings that regulate standards to improve the sustainability of the building. Thus, the aim of this paper was to gain a greater understanding of the design requirements for sustainable forms of pig housing, which could potentially improve the welfare of the pig and promote greater resource use efficiency. Part of an existing mechanically ventilated UK pig production building, which represents three adjacent fully-slatted units each capable of holding approximately 292 pigs and measuring approximately 18 m x 14m, was used as a basis to create a dynamic thermal model of the building. The model takes into account the possibility of future rises in environmental temperature and the effect of this climate change on building performance and pig growth, feed efficiency and welfare. The results of the model showed that as the finishing pigs increased in size they have the potential to be subject to increasingly poor indoor air quality, during the winter months. The model also shows that improving the thermal properties of the building not only helps with reducing the amount of time that the pigs could potentially spend at extreme low temperatures, by approximately 1115 h (46 days), but can also help with reducing the number of hours the pigs spend above 26 °C during the summer months, by approximately 8 h. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UK Environmental Change Network (ECN), the UK's Long-Term Ecosystem Research (LTER) network, has now been operating for over twenty years. It was established in 1992 as a set of terrestrial sites at which sustained observations relevant to a range of ecological indicators and environmental parameters could be made. An additional ECN freshwater network was launched in 1994. In this paper we provide a brief history of the network, and describe its current structure and role within a complementary wider range of UK environmental monitoring and observation programmes that are either more focussed on specific parameters or habitats, or operate at different temporal and spatial scales. We then provide a review of the other papers within this Special Issue, which exemplifies the broad range of environmental concerns that ECN data and sites are helping to address. These include network-wide summaries of environmental and biological trends over the first two decades of monitoring, more site-specific assessment of the ecological impacts of local pressures resulting from changes in management, biological and ecosystem service indicator development, and the testing of new monitoring technologies. We go on to consider: (i) future directions of network development and adaptation in light of recently emerging environmental concerns, dwindling financial resources and the consequent need for greater efficiency; (ii) the desire for tighter integration with other monitoring and observation programmes both nationally internationally; (iii) opportunities raised by recent technological developments; and (iv) the need to process and make available data more rapidly to increase the capacity of ECN sites as early warning systems. In its first two decades of operation the ECN has accumulated a robust set of baseline data that describe environmental and biological variability across a range of habitats in unprecedented detail. With appropriate, informed development, these should prove invaluable in discerning the causes and consequences of environmental change for decades to come. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract In order to assess the potential future impacts of climate change on urban areas, tools to assist decision-makers to understand future patterns of risk are required. This paper presents a modelling framework to allow the downscaling of national- and regional-scale population and employment projections to local scale land-use changes, providing scenarios of future socio-economic change. A coupled spatial interaction population model and cellular automata land development model produces future urbanisation maps based on planning policy scenarios. The framework is demonstrated on Greater London, UK, with a set of future population and land-use scenarios being tested against flood risk under climate change. The framework is developed in Python using open-source databases and is designed to be transferable to other cities worldwide. Highlights • Urban climate impacts must consider processes of socio-economic change alongside climate change. • A multi-scale modelling framework for climate impact assessment is presented and applied to London, UK. • Flood risk will increase with future climate change and socio-economic change may increase risk and impacts. • Potential adaptation options have trade-offs and co-benefits that can be assessed with the framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A network of three tall tower measurement stations was set up in 2012 across the United Kingdom to expand measurements made at the long-term background northern hemispheric site, Mace Head, Ireland. Reliable and precise in situ greenhouse gas (GHG) analysis systems were developed and deployed at three sites in the UK with automated instrumentation measuring a suite of GHGs. The UK Deriving Emissions linked to Climate Change (UK DECC) network uses tall (165-230m) open-lattice telecommunications towers, which provide a convenient platform for boundary layer trace gas sampling. In this paper we describe the automated measurement system and first results from the UK DECC network for CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, CO and H2. CO2 and CH4 are measured at all of the UK DECC sites by cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS) with multiple inlet heights at two of the three tall tower sites to assess for boundary layer stratification. The short-term precisions (1s on 1 min means) of CRDS measurements at background mole fractions for January 2012 to September 2015 is < 0.05 µmol mol-1 for CO2 and < 0.3 nmol mol-1 for CH4. Repeatability of standard injections (1s) is < 0.03 µmol mol-1 for CO2 and <0.3nmolmol-1 for CH4 for the same time period. N2O and SF6 are measured at three of the sites, and CO and H2 measurements are made at two of the sites, from a single inlet height using gas chromatography (GC) with an electron capture detector (ECD), flame ionisation detector (FID) or reduction gas analyser (RGA). Repeatability of individual injections (1s) on GC and RGA instruments between January 2012 and September 2015 for CH4, N2O, SF6, CO and H2 measurements were < 2.8 nmol mol-1, < 0.4 nmol mol-1, < 0.07 pmol mol-1, < 2 nmol mol-1 and < 3 nmol mol-1, respectively. Instrumentation in the network is fully automated and includes sensors for measuring a variety of instrumental parameters such as flow, pressures, and sampling temperatures. Automated alerts are generated and emailed to site operators when instrumental parameters are not within defined set ranges. Automated instrument shutdowns occur for critical errors such as carrier gas flow rate deviations. Results from the network give good spatial and temporal coverage of atmospheric mixing ratios within the UK since early 2012. Results also show that all measured GHGs are increasing in mole fraction over the selected reporting period and, except for SF6, exhibit a seasonal trend. CO2 and CH4 also show strong diurnal cycles, with night-time maxima and daytime minima in mole fractions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely acknowledged that the climate is warming globally and within the UK. In this paper, studies which assess the direct impact of current increased temperatures and heat-waves on health and those which project future health impacts of heat under different climate change scenarios in the UK are reviewed.This review finds that all UK studies demonstrate an increase in heat-related mortality occurring at temperatures above threshold values, with respiratory deaths being more sensitive to heat than deaths from cardiovascular disease (although the burden from cardiovascular deaths is greater in absolute terms). The relationship between heat and other health outcomes such as hospital admissions, myocardial infarctions and birth outcomes is less consistent. We highlight the main populations who are vulnerable to heat. Within the UK, these are older populations, those with certain co-morbidities and those living in Greater London, the South East and Eastern regions.In all assessments of heat-related impacts using different climate change scenarios, deaths are expected to increase due to hotter temperatures, with some studies demonstrating that an increase in the elderly population will also amplify burdens. However, key gaps in knowledge are found in relation to how urbanisation and population adaptation to heat will affect health impacts, and in relation to current and future strategies for effective, sustainable and equitable adaptation to heat. These and other key gaps in knowledge, both in terms of research needs and knowledge required to make sound public- health policy, are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years within the UK, behaviour change as a policy tool has gained popularity. Concurrently, the role of local authorities in both tackling unsustainability and reducing carbon emissions has become more prominent. This paper describes a recent study in the UK that aims to understand how local authorities are working to tackle unsustainability and encourage pro-environmental behaviour change in the population. Through interviews with local authority sustainability officers from London, this paper reviews the extent of sustainability work currently being undertaken by local authorities to assist residents transition to a more sustainable lifestyle. The study discusses key findings from the interviews, drawing on the commonalities and factors that influence local authority sustainability programmes. The key finding from these interviews is that there is a need for more robust monitoring and evaluation of local authority sustainability programmes. Robust evaluation would improve understanding of the potential contribution that local authority sustainability work could make towards addressing unsustainability and meeting national emission reduction targets. In addition, it would assist the development of the evidence-base on behaviour change interventions and their effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In the interest of climate change mitigation, policy makers, businesses and non-governmental organisations have devised initiatives designed to reduce in-use emissions whilst, at the same time, the number of energy-consuming products in homes, and household energy consumption, is increasing. Retailers are important because they are at the interface between manufacturers of products and consumers and they supply the vast majority of consumer goods in developed countries like the UK, including energy using products. Large retailers have a consistent history of corporate responsibility reporting and have included plans and actions to influence consumer emissions within them. This paper adapts two frameworks to use them for systematically assessing large retailers' initiatives aimed at reducing consumers' emissions. The Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (FSSD) is adapted and used to analyse the strategic scope and coherence of these initiatives in relation to the businesses' sustainability strategies. The ISM ‘Individual Social Material’ framework is adapted and used to analyse how consumer behaviour change mechanisms are framed by retailers. These frameworks are used to analyse eighteen initiatives designed to reduce consumer emissions from eight of the largest UK retail businesses, identified from publicly available data. The results of the eighteen initiatives analysed show that the vast majority were not well planned nor were they strategically coherent. Secondly, most of these specific initiatives relied solely on providing information to consumers and thus deployed a rather narrow range of consumer behaviour change mechanisms. The research concludes that leaders of retail businesses and policy makers could use the FSSD to ensure processes, actions and measurements are comprehensive and integrated, in order to increase the materiality and impact of their initiatives to reduce consumer emissions in use. Furthermore, retailers could benefit from exploring different models of behaviour change from the ISM framework in order to access a wider set of tools for transformative system change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term monitoring of surface water quality has shown increasing concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) across a large part of the Northern Hemisphere. Several drivers have been implicated including climate change, land management change, nitrogen and sulphur deposition and CO 2 enrichment. Analysis of stream water data, supported by evidence from laboratory studies, indicates that an effect of declining sulphur deposition on catchment soil chemistry is likely to be the primary mechanism, but there are relatively few long term soil water chemistry records in the UK with which to investigate this, and other, hypotheses directly. In this paper, we assess temporal relationships between soil solution chemistry and parameters that have been argued to regulate DOC production and, using a unique set of co-located measurements of weather and bulk deposition and soil solution chemistry provided by the UK Environmental Change Network and the Intensive Forest Monitoring Level II Network. We used statistical non-linear trend analysis to investigate these relationships at 5 forested and 4 non-forested sites from 1993 to 2011. Most trends in soil solution DOC concentration were found to be non-linear. Significant increases in DOC occurred mostly prior to 2005. The magnitude and sign of the trends was associated qualitatively with changes in acid deposition, the presence/absence of a forest canopy, soil depth and soil properties. The strongest increases in DOC were seen in acidic forest soils and were most clearly linked to declining anthropogenic acid deposition, while DOC trends at some sites with westerly locations appeared to have been influenced by shorter-term hydrological variation. The results indicate that widespread DOC increases in surface waters observed elsewhere, are most likely dominated by enhanced mobilization of DOC in surficial organic horizons, rather than changes in the soil water chemistry of deeper horizons. While trends in DOC concentrations in surface horizons have flattened out in recent years, further increases may be expected as soil chemistry continues to adjust to declining inputs of acidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Thermal energy loss in the process industry is a significant issue due to the high temperatures and multiple heat intensive processes involved. High-grade thermal energy is typically recovered within processes. However, lower grade heat is often rejected to the environment. The benefits of capturing and utilising low grade thermal energy are highly dependent on the qualities and properties of the heat in the waste streams. The temperature of the low grade heat stream is the most important parameter, as the effective use of the residual heat or the efficiency of energy recovery from the low grade heat sources will mainly depend on the temperature difference between the source and a suitable sink, e.g. another process or space heating/cooling. In general, the temperatures of these waste heat sources are too low to produce electricity and direct heat use will depend on whether potential user can be found. This paper presents past and current drivers for heat recovery studies. High and low grade heat sources are defined according to the viability of recovery within the processes. Firstly, high grade heat capture within the processes is reviewed. Then, the focus is on the potential for low grade heat capture outside of the original plant. The paper addresses the potential for low grade heat recovery with regard to new incentives and technological advances. Finally, different aspects which influence the decision making for low grade heat recovery in the process industry are discussed. It is concluded that organisational, financial and economic barriers might be overcome and benefits from a holistic vision could be gained with stronger governmental policy and regulation incentives. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Against an academic and policy backdrop of interest in (and concerns about) the issue, this paper draws on a range of academic writing in various disciplines to explore visual strategies of climate change communication. The geographic scope of the investigation is the United Kingdom, with particular attention to recognizable icons of climate change in UK media and the images used in political campaigns. The paper is in two parts. The first part concentrates on various efforts to put a 'face' on the climate change issue, while part two suggests that weather and renewable energy are the dominant alternative motifs. The paper draws a basic distinction between fear-laden representations of climate change and a variety of visual efforts to use so-called inspirational imagery. All of the images reviewed suggest an affirmative answer to the question in the title, there are multiple efforts underway to move beyond polar bears and represent climate change in more creative and meaningful ways. The bigger question addressed is one raised already by photographers as well as academics, i.e. whether documentary photography (rather than particular types of images) is the more fundamental issue. The answer in the paper is that photographs are no different from other visual images in their capacity to draw attention to messages. The challenge is to use visuals creatively, in ways that prompt positive engagement with climate change without enhancing public disengagement and fatalism. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the iconography of climate change in contemporary climate action campaigns in the UK. I aim to show how sample images are simultaneously scientific denotations of global warming and cultural connotations of danger and vulnerability. I further demonstrate that while similar images are associated with different agendas and geographical visions, they attach to a shared discourse of vulnerability that has Western (colonial) roots. The paper concludes with an overview of possible ways for climate action campaigns to effectively convey their political messages without recycling colonial visions of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a key element in its climate change strategy, the UK government launched a greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme in April 2002. The UK ETS is the first-ever national, industry-wide carbon trading scheme in the world and will eventually form part of the global carbon market which is expected to be established under the Kyoto Protocol. This paper assesses the effectiveness of the scheme both in facilitating emission reductions and also as driver towards moving from a fossil-fuel-based economy towards a low-carbon economy. By looking at early developments in the UK ETS and examining the emission profiles of FTSE 100 companies, the paper reveals some serious weaknesses and highlights that the environmental credibility of the market is hampered by low standards of emissions monitoring and reporting. The authors argue that a fundamental review of the UK scheme is required, to improve its environmental credibility and to bring it in line with the planned EU-wide scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exploitation of shale gas in the UK is at a very early stage, but with the latest estimates suggesting potential resources of 3.8 × 10 13 cubic metres – enough to supply the UK for next 470 years – it is viewed by many as an exciting economic prospect. However, its environmental impacts are currently unknown. This is the focus of this paper which estimates for the first time the life cycle impacts of UK shale gas, assuming its use for electricity generation. Shale gas is compared to fossil-fuel alternatives (conventional gas and coal) and low-carbon options (nuclear, offshore wind and solar photovoltaics). The results suggest that the impacts range widely, depending on the assumptions. For example, the global warming potential (GWP100) of electricity from shale gas ranges from 412 to 1102 g CO 2 -eq./kWh with a central estimate of 462 g. The central estimates suggest that shale gas is comparable or superior to conventional gas and low-carbon technologies for depletion of abiotic resources, eutrophication, and freshwater, marine and human toxicities. Conversely, it has a higher potential for creation of photochemical oxidants (smog) and terrestrial toxicity than any other option considered. For acidification, shale gas is a better option than coal power but an order of magnitude worse than the other options. The impact on ozone layer depletion is within the range found for conventional gas, but nuclear and wind power are better options still. The results of this research highlight the need for tight regulation and further analysis once typical UK values of key parameters for shale gas are established, including its composition, recovery per well, fugitive emissions and disposal of drilling waste. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The change in climate has led to an interest in how this will affect the energy consumption in buildings. Most of the work in the literature relates to offices and homes. However, this paper investigates a supermarket in northern England by means of a multiple regression analysis based on gas and electricity data for 2012. The equations obtained in this analysis use the humidity ratio derived from the dry-bulb temperature and the relative humidity in conjunction with the actual dry-bulb temperature. These equations are used to estimate the consumption for the base year period (1961-1990) and for the predicted climate period 2030-2059. The findings indicate that electricity use will increase by 2.1% whereas gas consumption will drop by about 13% for the central future estimate. The research further suggests that the year 2012 is comparable in temperature to the future climate, but the relative humidity is lower. Further research should include adaptation/mitigation measures and an evaluation of their usefulness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UK has seen periodic attempts to develop large district heating (DH) networks to make use of residual heat from industry and power generation. Under concerns about climate change and energy security, DH has recently re-emerged in policy visions for future heat systems with small decentralised combined heat and power (CHP) generators playing a key role in the establishment of such networks. This paper draws on Stewart Russell's accounts of earlier DH programmes, asking to what extent the reasons he concluded CHP and DH were systematically excluded continue to marginalise the technologies. In spite of governance changes which ostensibly open new opportunities for experimentation, key structural issues challenge the development of decentralised energy, particularly the alignment of the electricity sector to a centralised system and the dependency of local governments with limited capacity on central government. The reluctance of central government to engage in system planning and the failure to integrate policies related to energy production and energy consumption limit the effectiveness of support for DH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports an investigation intended to obtain some understanding of how the working environment might influence the practice and knowledge of those involved in the management of healthcare waste. The National Health Service (NHS) has a continuing waste problem, and the way it manages waste harms the environment and consumes resources. It has been estimated that the carbon footprint of the NHS in England is approximately 20 million tons of CO2e. It has been suggested that better waste segregation could lead to more effective recycling, saving up to 42,000 tonnes of CO2. This qualitative study employed nonparticipant observation and semi-structured interviews. The interviews were carried out with the key informants within the participating neonatal intensive care unit. Findings from this study indicate that space and the physical arrangement of the environment are significant and influential factors in clinical practice. Where the clinical environment is not supportive, poor infection control and waste management practice is likely to occur. However, proximity of staff caused by a lack of physical space might facilitate situated learning and a collective development of knowledge in practice. The implementation of sustainable waste management practices would be more likely to succeed in an environment that facilitates correct waste segregation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Upland waters are located upstream of the areas of direct human disturbance and intensive land use through industry, agriculture and urbanisation and are valued particularly as sources of potable water and as biodiverse freshwater habitats. Nonetheless, the impact of human activity can be detected even in some of the most remote lakes on the planet due to the effects of long-range transport of air pollutants and global climate change. In the UK, upland waters are threatened by a range of pressures including not only atmospheric deposition of acidic compounds, trace metals and organic pollutants, but also climate change, nutrient enrichment by deposited nitrogen and changing land-use or land management regimes. The threat from acid deposition has declined sharply since the 1980s but its legacy remains a major concern; recovery is taking place but even assuming a complete chemical and biological recovery to a pre-industrial baseline were possible, dynamic models suggest that this could take another 100 years. However, current climate change projections suggest that by then, UK upland waters will become much warmer, with lower summer streamflows, higher winter streamflows and a much reduced or even absent influence of snowfall and lake ice-cover. Hence there is no rationale for aspiring to the return of pre-industrial “reference” conditions because climate change is likely to shift the climatic baseline at an unprecedented rate. Meanwhile, expansion of forest planting, changing grazing regimes and management measures for peatland restoration, among other land-use pressure, will affect upland catchments in the UK with potentially major repercussions for aquatic ecosystems, both positive and negative. The challenge for scientists, policymakers and other stakeholders in the uplands is to determine not only the trajectory of change in upland waters, but also to define the ecological endpoints needed to provide the optimum range of ecosystem services for society. Integrated monitoring of the kind exemplified by the papers in this volume is a fundamental prerequisite in this regard. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate change and urbanisation are key factors affecting the future of water quality and quantity in urbanised catchments and are associated with significant uncertainty. The work reported in this paper is an evaluation of the combined and relative impacts of climate change and urbanisation on the receiving water quality in the context of an Integrated Urban Wastewater System (IUWS) in the UK. The impacts of intervening system operational control parameters are also investigated. Impact is determined by a detailed modelling study using both local and global sensitivity analysis methods together with correlation analysis. The results obtained from the case-study analysed clearly demonstrate that climate change combined with increasing urbanisation is likely to lead to worsening river water quality in terms of both frequency and magnitude of breaching threshold dissolved oxygen and ammonium concentrations. The results obtained also reveal the key climate change and urbanisation parameters that have the largest negative impact as well as the most responsive IUWS operational control parameters including major dependencies between all these parameters. This information can be further utilised to adapt future IUWS operation and/or design which, in turn, should make these systems more resilient to future climate and urbanisation changes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) considers eustatic sea level rise to be a major impact driven by climate change. Relative sea level change, whether positive or negative, will affect industries, communities and ecology along the world's coastlines and estuaries. Estimates of global eustatic sea level rise between 1961 and 2003 are 1.8 ± 0.5 mm a, reflecting results from validated global tide gauge records. Over the last two decades, several studies have used automatic tide gauge records with at least 80 years of data to generate global prediction models. The IPCC recognises that global change is not uniform, therefore local policy for flood management and coastal protection should rely on local change models that incorporate glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) and apply accurate data correction techniques. Some of the longest tidal records are held within the Northern Hemisphere, e.g. Cascais, Amsterdam, Aberdeen, Sheerness and Newlyn. The UK provides several important case studies highlighting changes in relative sea level between the north and the south, primarily due to variations in GIA rates of land uplift and subsidence. Tide gauge records are held by a variety of governmental, non-governmental and private organisations. However, each source may typically compile data in different ways, relying on diverse equipment and recording techniques, often with variations in frequency, length, quality and corrections applied. Even within a single organisation there may be differences in dataset quality. This paper examines some of the key sources of error when working with historical tidal datasets in local geographic areas and aims to identify the limitations of locally derived data thereby assisting in the determination of relative sea level trends that are of widespread value to infrastructure and policy makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Low Carbon Futures project, funded by the Adaptation and Resilience in a Changing Climate (ARCC) Programme, has the objective of using the latest UK climate projections (UKCP’09) to assess overheating in a range of domestic and non-domestic buildings. As these climate projections are probabilistic in nature, and dynamic building simulation is being used by the project to assess building performance, the information produced is vast. To understand how to filter this data into a useable tool that can interact with current building practices, the project has commissioned a range of focus groups to obtain practitioner feedback. These focus groups provide guidance on how buildings are currently designed with respect to overheating but also how future overheating risk assessments, incorporating probabilistic climate projections, might be carried out. This paper describes the assimilation of all this research into a coherent building simulation methodology that could be used by building practitioners to assess future overheating risks of a range of buildings, and provide guidance for applying adaptation solutions to prevent defined comfort thresholds being exceeded. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES:Food is responsible for around one-fifth of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from products consumed in the UK, the largest contributor of which is meat and dairy. The Committee on Climate Change have modelled the impact on GHG emissions of three dietary scenarios for food consumption in the UK. This paper models the impact of the three scenarios on mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer.SUBJECTS/METHODS:A previously published model (DIETRON) was used. The three scenarios were parameterised by fruit and vegetables, fibre, total fat, saturated fat, monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, cholesterol and salt using the 2008 Family Food Survey. A Monte Carlo simulation generated 95% credible intervals.RESULTS:Scenario 1 (50% reduction in meat and dairy replaced by fruit, vegetables and cereals: 19% reduction in GHG emissions) resulted in 36 910 (30 192 to 43 592) deaths delayed or averted per year. Scenario 2 (75% reduction in cow and sheep meat replaced by pigs and poultry: 9% reduction in GHG emissions) resulted in 1999 (1739 to 2389) deaths delayed or averted. Scenario 3 (50% reduction in pigs and poultry replaced with fruit, vegetables and cereals: 3% reduction in GHG emissions) resulted in 9297 (7288 to 11 301) deaths delayed or averted.CONCLUSION:Modelled results suggest that public health and climate change dietary goals are in broad alignment with the largest results in both domains occurring when consumption of all meat and dairy products are reduced. Further work in real-life settings is needed to confirm these results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: There has been a growing interest in liquid biofuels during the recent years due to concerns about security of energy supply and global climate change. Targets have been set throughout the globe for blending biofuels into conventional petroleum fuels. In this paper, an optimisation framework for the strategic design of a hybrid first/second generation ethanol supply chain is presented. The model seeks to address sustainability issues such as the use of food crops, land use requirements of second generation crops and competition for biomass with other sectors. The applicability of the model is demonstrated with a case study of ethanol production in the UK. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The case for taking action to tackle climate change is now persuasive. It is developed countries that must reduce GHG emissions most and this paper focuses on one such country – the UK. We address issues associated with the decarbonisation of the built environment and the housing stock in particular. We demonstrate the potential for significant unintended consequences and discuss the complexity involved in attempting to understand such processes. We argue the urgent need for the formation of multi- and inter-disciplinary teams with the diverse range of skill sets required to think together and to address these issues. Such teams must involve (at least) Building Physicists, Engineers, Economists, Epidemiologists, Statisticians, Behavioural Scientists, Complexity Scientists and Policy Makers. Without a coordinated and concerted programme of relevant research it is difficult to imagine how the necessary policy will be formulated and implemented effectively without the potential for enormous and irreversible mistakes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Satellite-derived high-resolution precipitation products (HRPP) have been developed to address the needs of the user community and are now available with 0.25° × 0.25° (or less) subdaily resolutions. This paper evaluates a number of commonly available satellite-derived HRPPs covering northwest Europe over a 6-yr period. Precipitation products include the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing (CMORPH) technique, the CPC merged microwave technique, the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) blended technique, and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) technique. In addition, the Geosynchronous Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) precipitation index (GPI) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) operational forecast model products are included for comparison. Surface reference data from the European radar network is used as ground truth, supported by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation gauge analysis and gauge data over the United Kingdom. Measures of correlation, bias ratio, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio are used to evaluate the products. Results show that satellite products generally exhibit a seasonal cycle in correlation, bias ratio, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio, with poorer statistics during the winter. The ECMWF model also shows a seasonal cycle in the correlation, although the results are poorer during the summer, while the bias ratio, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio are consistent through all seasons. Importantly, all the satellite HRPPs underestimate precipitation over northwest Europe in all seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Loch Leven is a large, shallow lake in lowland Scotland, UK. Scientific research began here almost 200 years ago. Early research characterised the biodiversity and physical characteristics of the loch, providing an important historical background for future research. In the mid-1960s, this ad hoc approach was superseded by a more structured research programme under the umbrella of the International Biological Programme. This was the beginning of the Loch Leven long-term monitoring programme. Today, the results of these studies form one of the longest and most comprehensive limnological datasets for shallow freshwater lakes in the world, comprising more than 500 physical, chemical and biological variables collected at two-weekly intervals. To celebrate the 40th anniversary of the start of the long term monitoring programme, and to highlight the scientific investigations still being conducted at Loch Leven, the NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) organised a symposium entitled "Loch Leven: 40 years of scientific research" in Kinross, Scotland, UK, on 11 December 2008. This examined the role of long-term monitoring in developing our understanding of the links between pollution, climate change and ecological responses in shallow lakes. This article introduces a series of papers summarising the scientific results presented at this meeting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This study explores the uncertainties and sensitivities in the prediction of the thermal performance of buildings under climate change. This type of analysis is key to the assessment of the adaptability and resilience of buildings to changing climate conditions. The paper presents a comprehensive overview of the key methodological steps needed for a probabilistic prediction of building performance in the long term future (50 to 80years). The approach propagates uncertainties in climate change predictions as well as the uncertainties related to interventions in building fabric and systems. A case study focussing on an air-conditioned university building at the campus of the authors is presented in order to demonstrate the methodology. This employs the most recent probabilistic climate change projections for the United Kingdom (UKCP09 dataset) and takes into account facility management uncertainties when exploring uncertainties in the prediction of heating energy, cooling energy, and carbon emissions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper is concerned with the biomechanical properties of the emergent aquatic macrophyte, Sparganium erectum. We present observations of adjustments in the physical characteristics and biomechanical properties of S. erectum during the growing season (April–November) from the River Blackwater, UK. When a pulling device is attached to plant stems to measure their resistance to uprooting, individual plants show remarkable strength in their above- and below-ground biomass (median stem strength when stems break away from the underground biomass, 78N, median rhizome strength, 39N) and high resistance to uprooting (median uprooting resistance when entire plants uproot, 114N). This provides the potential for the species to protect and reinforce the generally soft, silty sediments that it often retains and within which its rhizomes and roots develop in lower energy river environments. There is a propensity for plant stems to break before the plant is uprooted at the beginning and end of the growth season, but for the stems to have sufficient strength in mid season for plant uprooting to dominate. This ensures that rhizome and root systems remain relatively undisturbed at times when the silty sediments in which they grow are poorly protected by above-ground biomass. In contrast, rhizome strength remains comparatively invariant through the growing season, supporting the plant''s potential to have a protective/reinforcing effect on fine sediments through the winter when above ground biomass is absent. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: As the debate on policy responses to climate change gathers pace, there has been an increasing focus on tools to model national scale energy use and emission characteristics of UK dwellings. This paper reviews some existing models and highlights limitations of their common underlying methodologies. We argue that a radically different, integrated, approach is required to tackle these challenges and ensure that the modelling remain robust and able to meet future demands. We suggest that Agent Based Modelling (ABM) is a suitable candidate modelling paradigm to achieve an integrated modelling framework. We also present DECarb-ABM (an ABM based implementation of an existing model, DECarb) with many of the desired properties of such an integrated framework. The new model is validated against both the existing model and historical data. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]