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Climate change mitigation benefits from the land sector are not being fully realised because of uncertainty and controversy about the role of native forest management. The dominant policy view, as stated in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, is that sustainable forest harvesting yielding wood products, generates the largest mitigation benefit. We demonstrate that changing native forest management from commercial harvesting to conservation can make an important contribution to mitigation. Conservation of native forests results in an immediate and substantial reduction in net emissions relative to a reference case of commercial harvesting. We calibrated models to simulate scenarios of native forest management for two Australian case studies: mixed-eucalypt in New South Wales and Mountain Ash in Victoria. Carbon stocks in the harvested forest included forest biomass, wood and paper products, waste in landfill, and bioenergy that substituted for fossil fuel energy. The conservation forest included forest biomass, and subtracted stocks for the foregone products that were substituted by non-wood products or plantation products. Total carbon stocks were lower in harvested forest than in conservation forest in both case studies over the 100-year simulation period. We tested a range of potential parameter values reported in the literature: none could increase the combined carbon stock in products, slash, landfill and substitution sufficiently to exceed the increase in carbon stock due to changing management of native forest to conservation. The key parameters determining carbon stock change under different forest management scenarios are those affecting accumulation of carbon in forest biomass, rather than parameters affecting transfers among wood products. This analysis helps prioritise mitigation activities to focus on maximising forest biomass. International forest-related policies, including negotiations under the UNFCCC, have failed to recognize fully the mitigation value of native forest conservation. Our analyses provide evidence for decision-making about the circumstances under which forest management provides mitigation benefits.

Blue carbon ecosystems (BCEs), such as mangroves, saltmarshes, and seagrasses, are important nature-based solutions for climate change mitigation and adaptation but are threatened by degradation. Effective BCE restoration requires strategic planning and site selection to optimise outcomes. We developed a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based multi-criteria decision support tool to identify suitable areas for BCE restoration along the 2512 km-long coastline of Victoria, Australia. High-resolution spatial data on BCE distribution, coastal geomorphology, hydrodynamics, and land tenure were integrated into a flexible spatial model that distinguishes between passive and active restoration suitability. The tool was applied to identify high-priority locations for mangrove, saltmarsh, and seagrass restoration across different scenarios. Results indicate substantial potential for BCE restoration in Victoria, with 33,253 ha of suitable area identified, mostly (>97%) on public land, which aligned with the selection criteria used in the tool. Restoration opportunities are concentrated in bays and estuaries where historical losses have been significant. The mapped outputs provide a decision-support framework for regional restoration planning, while the tool itself can be adapted to other geographies. By integrating multiple spatial criteria and distinguishing between passive and active restoration, our approach offers a new method for targeting BCE restoration and informing resource allocation. The identified restoration potential will also require collaboration with coastal managers and communities, and consideration of socio-economic factors. With further refinements, such as incorporating multi-criteria decision analysis techniques, GIS-based tools can help catalyse strategic blue carbon investments and contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation goals at different spatial scales. This study highlights the value of spatial identification for BCE restoration and provides a transferable framework for other regions., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests:Peter I. Macreadie reports financial support was provided by Australian Research Council. Stacey M. Trevathan-Tackett reports financial support was provided by Australian Research Council. If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

This paper presents a method to analyze and improve the set of equations constituting a rainfall‐runoff model structure based on a combination of a data assimilation algorithm and polynomial updates to the state equations. The method, which we have called "Data Assimilation Informed model Structure Improvement" (DAISI) is generic, modular, and demonstrated with an application to the GR2M model and 201 catchments in South‐East Australia. Our results show that the updated model generated with DAISI generally performed better for all metrics considered included Kling‐Gupta Efficiency, NSE on log transform flow and flow duration curve bias. In addition, the elasticity of modeled runoff to rainfall is higher in the updated model, which suggests that the structural changes could have a significant impact on climate change simulations. Finally, the DAISI diagnostic identified a reduced number of update configurations in the GR2M structure with distinct regional patterns in three sub‐regions of the modeling domain (Western Victoria, central region, and Northern New South Wales). These configurations correspond to specific polynomials of the state variables that could be used to improve equations in a revised model. Several potential improvements of DAISI are proposed including the use of additional observed variables such as actual evapotranspiration to better constrain internal model fluxes. Plain Language Summary: This paper presents a data‐driven method to improve rainfall‐runoff models used to generate future water resources scenario in climate change studies. The method, which we have called "Data Assimilation Informed model Structure Improvement" (DAISI) is generic, modular, and demonstrated with an application to monthly streamflow simulations over a large data set of catchments in South‐East Australia. Our results show that DAISI improves model performance for a wide range of metrics and increases the sensitivity of the model to climate inputs, which is critical in climate change scenarios. Finally, the improvements identified by DAISI take a simple mathematical form with distinct regional patterns in three sub‐regions of the study domain (Western Victoria, central region, and Northern New South Wales). Several improvements of DAISI are discussed including the inclusion of additional observed variables such as evapotranspiration to better constrain model simulations. Key Points: Data Assimilation Informed model Structure Improvement method diagnoses hydrological model structures by combining data assimilation with a polynomial update of state equationsThe method was applied to the GR2M rainfall‐runoff model with significantly improved streamflow simulations in 201 Australian catchmentsThe method identified updates to state equations with marked regional characteristics that could guide future improvement of GR2M [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tropical and warm-temperate eastern Australian muricid snail Tenguella marginalba (Blainville, 1832), unknown in Victoria prior to 1982, is formally reported as established in far eastern Victoria. It also occurs in southernmost New South Wales. The Marine Research Group of the Field Naturalists Club of Victoria (MRG) first detected it at Mallacoota in 1982, and subsequent surveys by the MRG and others have confirmed its local persistence. This paper maps its appearance and range in Victoria over time, based on MRG records and other literature references. A possible cause for its Victorian incursion is the warming of the Eastern Australian Current through climate change. Recent Victorian intertidal records of other warm-temperate marine invertebrates not typically found in eastern Victoria are provided as possible co-examples of this process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces and analyzes fire climate regimes, steady-state conditions that govern the behavior of fire weather. A simple model representing fire climate was constructed by regressing high-quality regional climate averages against the station-averaged annual Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) for Victoria, Australia. Four FFD indices for fire years 1957–2021 were produced for 10 regions. Regions with even coverage of station-averaged total annual FFDI (ΣFFDI) from 1971–2016 exceeded Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.84, validating its widespread application. Data were analyzed for shifts in mean, revealing regime shifts that occurred between 1996 and 2003 in the southern states and 2012–2013 in Queensland. ΣFFDI shifted up by ~25% in SE Australia to 8% in the west; by approximately one-third in the SE to 7% in the west for days above high fire danger; by approximately half in the SE to 11% in the west for days above very high, with a greater increase in Tasmania; and by approximately three-quarters in the SE to 9% in the west for days above severe FFDI. Attribution of the causes identified regime shifts in the fire season maximum temperature and a 3 p.m. relative humidity, with changing drought factor and rainfall patterns shaping the results. The 1:10 fire season between Regimes 1 and 2 saw a three to seven times increase with an average of five. For the 1:20 fire season, there was an increase of 2 to 14 times with an average of 8. Similar timing between shifts in the Australian FFDI and the global fire season length suggests that these changes may be global in extent. A trend analysis will substantially underestimate these changes in risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia's natural capital is under growing cumulative pressure from land use change and intensive agriculture, fishery, forestry, and urban sprawl. This consequently reduces the benefits and services that it provides. This paper firstly assessed how current trends of land-use change have an impact on the natural capital loss in South Victoria, Australia during 2006-2016. Then in order to increase natural capital inherent value and to ensure that natural capital is multifunctional, a system of Blue-Green Infrastructure is designed within the current natural capital of Tarwin Lower, in Victoria. Given that natural capital area is declining in Australia, incorporating designed elements into existing natural capital to create multifunctional natural capital, enables maximising the supply and value of ecosystem services in order to meet the demands of a growing population. Here, three ecosystem services (stormwater abatement, water quality improvement, and water supply services) were compared in terms of existing natural capital or with integrated Blue-Green Infrastructure elements to create multifunctional natural capital system. The results indicate that planning Blue-Green Infrastructure will enhance multiple aspects of regional sustainability and resilience in the Tarwin catchment and will maximise the multifunctionality of the natural capital. Finally, the paper simulates the cost-benefit analysis for the implementation of Blue-Green Infrastructure to show that it is a cost-effective and sustainable solution to cope with the current demographic, economic and agricultural trends, which affect natural capital. This paper confirms that in order to provide ecosystem services for extra demands of growing inhabitants, Blue-Green Infrastructure networks require to be extended in the Victoria State of Australia to compensate natural capital and ecosystem service losses due to the regional and urban development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The bird fauna of Melbourne has changed in many ways since the 19th century, and this paper documents some of these changes using Keartland's paper as a benchmark for the 19th century, along with our own experience for recent decades. Woodland birds declined substantially as woodlands were cleared in the 19th century, and several species became locally extinct. Farmland birds prospered and then declined as farmland was converted to housing. Some forest birds colonised gardens and parks as trees and shrubs matured through the 20th century. Planting of native shrubs has benefited some species such as Little Wattlebird, and complex competitive interactions between aggressive honeyeaters and other birds are involved in shaping the bird fauna and the ecosystem. Climate variability has played a role, with droughts encouraging waves of immigration. In recent decades there have been spectacular waves of colonising species from inland Australia (Galah, Sulphurcrested Cockatoo, Little Corella and Crested Pigeon), the eastern seaboard (Rainbow Lorikeet) and the western plains (Long-billed Corella). Introduced European birds declined substantially during the 1997-2010 drought. Conservation of native vegetation has been the main factor contributing to the high diversity still represented in Melbourne's bird fauna. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variability over the Tropical and North Pacific Ocean (TPO and NPO, respectively) modulates marginal sea variability. The South China Sea (SCS), the largest marginal sea in the western NPO, is an outstanding example of a region that responds quickly to climate change. However, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the response of the deep SCS to large‐scale climate variability. Multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis revealed three prominent modes of interconnected temperature anomaly fluctuations within the TPO and NPO. These coherent modes highlight the interactive dynamics among climate variations and reveal their modulation mechanisms for previously less explored potential temperature variabilities in the deep SCS. On the atmospheric bridge, external forces modify the upper‐layer Luzon Strait Transport (LST) by adjusting the Ekman transport and Kuroshio intrusion. For the oceanic pathway, climate variations disturb the deep‐layer LST by adjusting the barotropic flows in the upper layer. Plain Language Summary: This study utilizes multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis to examine long‐term hydrographic observations and identify coherent variations in surface temperature anomalies in the Tropical and North Pacific Ocean. The leading mode displays in‐phase combinations of the East Pacific El Niño and warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The second mode displays a Central Pacific El Niño and North Pacific Meridional Mode‐like mode. The third mode resembles a Central Pacific El Niño and Victoria Mode‐like mode. The objective is to comprehend the synergies between the climatic variabilities in the Tropical and North Pacific Ocean, as well as the processes by which the predominant climate variabilities regulate the undocumented potential temperature variabilities in the deep South China Sea. Extrinsic forcings in the Tropical and North Pacific Ocean regulate the interannual–decadal temperature variabilities by modulating the Luzon Strait Transport. On the atmospheric bridge, these extrinsic forcings affect the upper‐layer Luzon Strait Transport by altering the local Ekman transport and Kuroshio intrusion associated with the bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current. On the oceanic pathway, climate variabilities disturb the deep‐layer Luzon Strait Transport by changing the ocean bottom pressure between the two sides of the Luzon Strait. Key Points: Coherent climate variabilities in the Tropical and North Pacific Ocean are obtained through MVEOF analysisPotential temperature observations from the deep South China Sea indicate interannual–decadal variabilityClimate variabilities affect deep temperature variability through the changing atmospheric bridge and oceanic pathway [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change modelling has identified south-east Australia as a 'hot spot' for more frequent climatic extremes. Rural landholders may be vulnerable to the risks climate change presents. Australia's rural landholders are considered highly adaptable, with a history of responding to climatic uncertainty and variability. Yet it is possible that some of their adaptations will not be effective in reducing vulnerability, and may have downstream impacts. Rural landholder decision making is complex, and this is one of a limited number of papers examining rural landholder responses to climate change and the factors influencing their decisions. Data were gathered using semi-structured interviews and a mail survey of rural landholders in two districts. Established socio-psychological scales were employed to measure beliefs, values and attitudes that are expected to shape landholder behaviour. Most of the rural landholders surveyed were not climate change 'deniers' with 70% agreeing that the climate is changing and that human activity is a major influence. Climate change was nominated as an influence on six adaptive behaviours by 50% or more of survey respondents. However, there were no significant relationships between belief in climate change and adaptive actions. Personal values and worldviews were found to be the most frequent factors linked to adaptive behaviour. These findings illustrate the complex nature of rural landholder decision making: suggesting that many rural landholders do not need convincing of the existence of climate change; and that efforts to motivate rural landholders to respond to climate change risks should be based on sound knowledge of their values and worldviews., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Framework climate legislation has been introduced in many jurisdictions around the world, at the national and subnational scales, to govern climate change mitigation and adaptation activities by governments. The Climate Change Act 2017 (Vic) is an example which embodies many of the typical features of framework climate laws: emissions reduction targets, mitigation strategies and adaptation plans. Yet the Victorian legislation also includes explicit provision for climate mainstreaming: a general legal duty to take account of climate change, where relevant, in government decisions, policies, programs and processes, and a more specific duty to have regard to climate change considerations in prescribed decisions. These mainstreaming provisions reflect a legislative intent to promote an integrated, whole-ofgovernment approach to climate change. This recognises that a broad range of policy areas both contribute to climate change and are affected by climate change, and that effectively integrating climate change across government functions is critical to achieve mitigation and adaptation objectives. This article reports on an empirical study exploring the effect of the mainstreaming provisions on government practices in Victoria. Interviews with Victorian public servants from a wide range of policy and operational areas provide insights into the value, role and function of legislation in supporting climate mainstreaming, as well as lessons from practice in how to effectively operationalise legal mainstreaming duties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainty around long-term droughts and water scarcity has been increasing as the impacts of El Nino cycles are felt globally. Understanding how the effects of these events are manifested on the ground in communities is particularly important if governments and associated agencies are to respond appropriately. Using a qualitative approach, this paper examines the impacts of drought on two rural towns in Victoria, Australia, and explores what lessons can be drawn from local experiences. The research suggests that previous responses to drought by governments have been largely ineffectual and as such, we question whether there is a need to reshape institutional understandings of what adapting to drought might mean. This research, therefore, seeks to further the discussion surrounding drought impacts and the myriad of challenges associated with it by drawing on locally situated knowledge to inform future decision-making in this evolving field of study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change predictions include forecasts of higher variability in rainfall and river flows leading to greater uncertainty about future availability of water across urban and agricultural sectors. Under conditions of water scarcity, it makes economic sense to facilitate the transfer of water from low- to high-value users. This paper provides insights into the merits of water options contracts as a vehicle for facilitating trade and represents an alternative to the politically contentious permanent sale of water by agriculturalists. In addition, we provide some indicative results from an analysis of the feasibility of options contracts in an inter-sectoral setting by considering their deployment to remove urban/industrial water restrictions. A case study of the urban community of Wangaratta and upstream agricultural interests has been selected. The objective is to identify the conditions under which option contracts might work and to highlight the important contract design features that need to be considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a clear distinction between wet and dry synoptic types at each station. The influence of large-scale climate modes on the frequency and timing of the regional synoptic patterns is also investigated. This analysis revealed that phase changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and/or the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are associated with a shift in the relative frequency of wet and dry synoptic types on an annual to interannual timescale. In addition, the relative frequency of synoptic types is shown to vary on a multi-decadal timescale, associated with changes in the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Importantly, these results highlight the potential to utilise the link between the regional synoptic patterns derived in this study and large-scale climate modes to improve rainfall forecasting for Victoria, both in the short- (i.e. seasonal) and long-term (i.e. decadal/multi-decadal scale). In addition, the regional and large-scale climate drivers identified in this study provide a benchmark by which the performance of Global Climate Models (GCMs) may be assessed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The soil organic carbon (SOC) depth profile provides information for many applications, including monitoring climate change, carbon sequestration, reforestation, and land erosion. Models of the SOC profile support data interpolation, trend analysis, and carbon mapping, and can be used in larger pedometric models in support of carbon farming. Model errors may be due to statistical variability in discrete data and the limited sample size available for model calibration. Uncertainties in the model can arise from a process of iterative parameter adjustment and can be estimated by gradient-based methods or probabilistic methods. A comparison between Frequentist and Bayesian approaches to the construction of regression-based models revealed that the results were very similar when used for calibrating a model for the SOC profile. The model was applied to four representative regional sites in Victoria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leach, C.; Kennedy, D.M.; Carvalho, R.C., and Ierodiaconou, D., 2020. Predicting compartment-scale climate change impacts related to Southern Ocean wave forcing: Port Fairy, Victoria, Australia. In: Malvárez, G. and Navas, F. (eds.), Global Coastal Issues of 2020. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 95, pp. 1157-1161. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. On the southern coast of Australia one of the principle impacts of climate change will be a change in wave magnitude and direction resulting from intensification of the Southern Ocean storm systems. In Victoria, Australia, this is likely to cause significant change in sediment dynamics and possible shoreline re-orientation. In this paper, Port Fairy (western coast of Victoria) is used as a case study to explore the sensitivity of this embayment to changing wave climate conditions. Bed level change rates and spatially variable sediment transport rates are investigated. The results indicate that a southerly shift in the wave climate could intensify sediment transport processes and erosional patterns in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Novel genetic accessions of Eucalyptus polybractea from a previously untested, hotter and drier part of the species' natural range were tested in a common garden trial at a semi-arid site in NSW, Australia. Eucalyptus polybractea is a mallee eucalypt cultivated for essential oils (1,8-cineole), bioenergy and carbon sequestration on dryland sites in southern Australia (sites receiving about 450 mm mean annual rainfall, MAR). A trial of six previously untested provenances from the relatively hot, dry part of the species' natural range in South Australia (SA) (250–450 mm MAR) was established alongside seven provenances from New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria within a commercial plantation in NSW. The trial was assessed at age 3.7 years for growth and oil characteristics. While survival was excellent, most of the SA sources were slower growing and of sub-standard oil concentration and quality relative to those from Victoria and NSW. However, a single SA provenance, with the highest oil concentration and 1,8-cineole percentage of all provenances tested, may have potential as a source of selected germplasm. Infusion of SA material into the breeding populations of E. polybractea, which are currently based on NSW and Victorian selections only, may provide more resilience in the face of hotter and drier temperatures expected under projected climate change scenarios, and/or allow the introduction of the species to hotter and drier climates in Australia or other parts of the world with semi-arid climates. However, high-intensity selection of infusions will be required to maintain the growth and oil characteristics in the existing breeding population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Many species are adapted to a particular fire regime and major deviations from that regime may lead to localized extinction. Here, we quantify immaturity risks to an obligate‐seeder forest tree using an objectively designed climate model ensemble and a probabilistic fire regime simulator to predict future fire regimes. Location: Alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis) distribution, Victoria, south‐eastern Australia. Methods: We used a fire regime model (FROST) with six climate projections from a climate model ensemble across 3.7 million hectares of native forest and non‐native vegetation to examine immaturity risks to obligate‐seeder forests dominated by alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis), which has a primary juvenile period of approximately 20 years. Our models incorporated current and future projected climate including fuel feedbacks to simulate fire regimes over 100 years. We then used Random Forest modelling to evaluate which spatial characteristics of the landscape were associated with high immaturity risks to alpine ash forest patches. Results: Significant shifts to the fire regime were predicted under all six future climate projections. Increases in both wildfire extent (total area burnt, area burnt at high intensity) and frequency were predicted with an average increase of up to 110 hectares burnt annually by short‐interval fires (i.e., within the expected minimum time to reproductive maturity). The immaturity risk posed by short‐interval fires to alpine ash forest patches was well explained by Random Forest models and varied with both location and environmental variables. Main conclusions: Alpine ash forests are predicted to be burned at greater intensities and shorter intervals under future fire regimes. About 67% of the current alpine ash distribution was predicted to be at some level of immaturity risk over the 100‐year modelling period, with the greatest risks to those patches located on the periphery of the current distribution, closer to roads or surrounded by a drier landscape at lower elevations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is increasing the variability of rainfall, and thus the availability of water supplies in many areas of the world. These impacts are already being felt in the state of Victoria, Australia where a 12 year drought period was recently experienced. Restrictions to water use have been implemented, as one component of a broad policy approach to manage the drought. While anecdotal evidence suggests that the substitution of centralised water supplies is occurring, this has not been proven empirically. This paper reports results from a survey of households in Victoria regarding their use of alternative water sources. The study found that substitution is occurring. Garden watering is the purpose which has the highest rate of alternative water source use. In total 41.6% of respondents always, and 33.2% sometimes use an alternative water source for garden watering. The most commonly used alternative source of water for garden watering is water previously used in the laundry (30.7%). The alternative source of water used was found to vary depending on the purpose of the water use. High levels of satisfaction were found for all alternative water sources used. Several barriers were found to the use of alternative water sources, the main of which were: inflexibility of existing infrastructure, cost, policy, and housing status. The results have implications for water retailers, policy makers and governments in locations facing water shortage. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Landfast sea ice (fast ice) is an important though poorly understood component of the cryosphere on the Antarctic continental shelf, where it plays a key role in atmosphere–ocean–ice-sheet interaction and coupled ecological and biogeochemical processes. Here, we present a first in-depth baseline analysis of variability and change in circum-Antarctic fast-ice distribution (including its relationship to bathymetry), based on a new high-resolution satellite-derived time series for the period 2000 to 2018. This reveals (a) an overall trend of -882±824 km 2 yr -1 (-0.19±0.18 % yr -1) and (b) eight distinct regions in terms of fast-ice coverage and modes of formation. Of these, four exhibit positive trends over the 18-year period and four negative. Positive trends are seen in East Antarctica and in the Bellingshausen Sea, with this region claiming the largest positive trend of +1198±359 km 2 yr -1 (+1.10±0.35 % yr -1). The four negative trends predominantly occur in West Antarctica, with the largest negative trend of -1206±277 km 2 yr -1 (-1.78±0.41 % yr -1) occurring in the Victoria and Oates Land region in the western Ross Sea. All trends are significant. This new baseline analysis represents a significant advance in our knowledge of the current state of both the global cryosphere and the complex Antarctic coastal system, which are vulnerable to climate variability and change. It will also inform a wide range of other studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims: In response to global heating, accurate climate data are required to calculate climatic indices for long-term decisions about vineyard management, vineyard site selection, varieties planted and to predict phenological development. The availability of spatially interpolated climate data has the potential to make viticultural climate analyses possible at specific sites without the expense and uncertainty of collecting climate data within vineyards. The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy and precision of climatic indices calculated using an on-site climate sensor and an interpolated climate dataset to assess whether the effect of spatial variability in climate at this fine spatial scale significantly affects phonological modelling outcomes. Methods and Results: Four sites comprising two topographically homogenous vineyards and two topographically diverse vineyards in three wine regions in Victoria (Australia) were studied across four growing seasons. A freely available database of interpolated Australian climate data based on government climate station records (Scientific Information for Land Owners, SILO) provided temperature data for grid cells containing the sites (resolution 0.05° latitude by 0.05° longitude, approximately 5 km × 5 km). In-vineyard data loggers collected temperature data for the same time period. The results indicated that the only significant difference between the two climate data sources was the minimum temperatures in the topographically varied vineyards where night-time thermal layering is likely to occur. Conclusion: The interpolated climate data closely matched the in-vineyard recorded maximum temperatures in all cases and minimum temperatures for the topographically homogeneous vineyards. However, minimum temperatures were not as accurately predicted by the interpolated data for the topographically complex sites. Therefore, this specific interpolated dataset was a reasonable substitute for in-vineyard collected data only for vineyard sites that are unlikely to experience night-time thermal layering. Significance of the Study: Access to accurate climate data from a free interpolation service, such as SILO provides a valuable tool tomanage blocks or sections within vineyards more precisely for vineyards that do not have a weather station on site. Care, nevertheless, is required to account for minimum temperature discrepancies in topographically varied vineyards, due to the potential for cool air pooling at night, that may not be reflected in interpolated climate data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has the potential to have a major impact on flora and fauna across Australia. There is a need to investigate the potential impact of climate change at a subspecies level to inform effective conservation management. To date, there have been no studies that have considered the effects of climate change on the distribution and habitat of the Brush-tailed Phascogale Phascogale tapoatafa tapoatafa. In this research, the potential changes to the phascogale climatic envelope were modelled to simulate low emissions (RCP2.6) and high emissions (RCP8.5) scenarios for 2075. Six bioclimatic parameters were selected, based on their likelihood of influencing phascogale occupancy. Modelling was conducted separately on two groupings of phascogale that occur in central Victoria and from northern New South Wales to southern Queensland. Of the selected parameters, the maximum temperature of the hottest month was found to have the greatest influence over phascogale distribution. The high emission scenario for 2075 suggests that climatically suitable phascogale habitat would contract by 79% in Queensland, 67% in Victoria and 17% in New South Wales. Suitable habitat would also increase in some areas with large expansions in New South Wales. Habitat connectivity will be essential for allowing phascogales to move through the landscape to reach areas where climate may be most suitable under warming. These projections do not take into account the increase in bushfires and other natural disasters that could exacerbate the effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports briefly the concentrations of major elements of 3116 samples of lakes in the Victoria Land region. The data obtained by different works were processed through multivariate chemometric techniques to gain insight into the biogeochemical processes taking place in the lacustrine systems. Antarctic ice-free areas contain lakes and ponds that have interesting chemical features and are of wide global significance as early warning indicators of climatic and environmental change. • All lakes in Terra Nova Bay are "Sodium chloride lakes", almost all lakes in the MCM Valley are "Calcium chloride lakes". • The Piper diagram reveals that Terra Nova bay lake's are (Na+K)Cl type, themajority samples of MCM lakes are (Ca+Mg)HCO3 type. • Victoria land Lakes chemical composition shows a very high variability either directlyinherits that of seawater. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests that regenerate exclusively from seed following high-severity fire are particularly vulnerable to local extinction if fire frequency leaves insufficient time for regenerating plants to reach sexual maturity. We evaluate the relative importance of extrinsic (such as fire weather and climate cycles) and intrinsic (such as proneness to fire due to stand age and structural development) factors in driving the decline of obligate seeder forests. We illustrate this using obligate seeding alpine ash ( Eucalyptus delegatensis) forests in the montane regions of Victoria, Australia, that were burnt by megafires in 2003 (142,256 ha) or 2007 (79,902 ha), including some twice-burnt areas (11,599 ha). Geospatial analyses showed only a small effect of stand age on the remote sensing estimates of crown defoliation, but a substantial effect of forest fire weather, as measured by forest fire danger index (FFDI). Analysis of meteorological data over the last century showed that 5-year increases in FFDI precede cycle major fires in the E. delegatensis forests. Such strong extrinsic climate/weather driving of high-severity fires is consistent with the 'interval squeeze model' that postulates the vulnerability of obligate seeder forests to landscape-scale demographic collapse in response to worsening fire weather under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is now irrefutable evidence that climate change and increasing environmental degradation negatively affect population health. Healthcare plays an important role in addressing these emerging environmental challenges, considering its core aim is to protect and promote health. Preliminary research in Victoria, Australia, suggests that healthcare practitioners are endeavouring to factor in environmental concerns into their practice. Health promotion, an integral part of the healthcare system, is considered an area of practice that can support action on sustainability. Based on five qualitative case studies and key stakeholder interviews, this article explores key barriers and facilitators to incorporating sustainability into community-based healthcare practice. The findings demonstrate that despite multiple barriers, including funding and lack of policy direction, health promotion principles and practices can enable action on sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the mid-1990s the majority of Victoria, Australia, has experienced severe drought conditions (i.e. the "Big Dry") characterized by streamflow that is the lowest in approximately 80 years of record. While decreases in annual and seasonal rainfall totals have also been observed, this alone does not seem to explain the observed reduction in flow. In this study, we investigate the large-scale climate drivers for Victoria and demonstrate how these modulate the regional scale synoptic patterns, which in turn alter the way seasonal rainfall totals are compiled and the amount of runoff per unit rainfall that is produced. The hydrological implications are significant and illustrate the need for robust hydrological modelling, that takes into account insights into physical mechanisms that drive regional hydroclimatology, in order to properly understand and quantify the impacts of climate change (natural and/or anthropogenic) on water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The late Quaternary vegetation communities of the south-central highlands of Victoria are constructed from analyses of pollen and charcoal, and macroscopic plant remains preserved in Sphagnum bogs. The sites, located in eucalypt forest or woodland, form an altitudinal sequence with the component Eucalyptus species varying with altitude and with small pockets of Nothofagus cunninghamii (Hook.) Oerst. in close proximity to the higher sites. The record from the sites above 900 m covers the last 32 000 years, and the record from the lower sites extends from at least 12 000 BP. Around 32 000 BP the region was predominantly covered by a mosaic of alpine feldmark and herbfield, with small patches of Eucalyptus and Nothofagus woodland close to sea level when summer temperatures were probably 5°C lower than present. Lowest values, probably 7°–8°C below present, occurred between 19 800 and 16 900 BP, when alpine communities were most widespread and much of the Central Highlands was treeless. Around 12 000 BP alpine taxa disappeared or were greatly reduced, first at the lower sites. There was an associated rise in the treeline with the movement upslope of Nothofagus and eucalypt forest as a result of a general increase in temperature and probably effective precipitation. By 6000 BP wet eucalypt forest and Nothofagus reached their maximum postglacial extent at all sites, possibly related to a further increase in temperature, at least 2°C lower than present, and higher effective precipitation. A continuing increase in temperature, or an increase in continentality, and a decrease in effective precipitation led to increased fire hazard and retraction of rainforest and wet sclerophyll or tall open forest toward present-day values. Nothofagus disappeared from the sites below 900 m. The activities of humans pose further threats to remaining forest communities. The record of vegetation and environmental change derived from the local and regional... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research highlights—Feedbacks between fire severity, vegetation structure and ecosystem flammability are understudied in highly fire-tolerant forests that are dominated by epicormic resprouters. We examined the relationships between the severity of two overlapping fires in a resprouting eucalypt forest and the subsequent effect of fire severity on fuel structure. We found that the likelihood of a canopy fire was the highest in areas that had previously been exposed to a high level of canopy scorch or consumption. Fuel structure was sensitive to the time since the previous canopy fire, but not the number of canopy fires. Background and Objectives—Feedbacks between fire and vegetation may constrain or amplify the effect of climate change on future wildfire behaviour. Such feedbacks have been poorly studied in forests dominated by highly fire-tolerant epicormic resprouters. Here, we conducted a case study based on two overlapping fires within a eucalypt forest that was dominated by epicormic resprouters to examine (1) whether past wildfire severity affects future wildfire severity, and (2) how combinations of understorey fire and canopy fire within reburnt areas affect fuel properties. Materials and Methods—The study focused on ≈77,000 ha of forest in south-eastern Australia that was burnt by a wildfire in 2007 and reburnt in 2013. The study system was dominated by eucalyptus trees that can resprout epicormically following fires that substantially scorch or consume foliage in the canopy layer. We used satellite-derived mapping to assess whether the severity of the 2013 fire was affected by the severity of the 2007 fire. Five levels of fire severity were considered (lowest to highest): unburnt, low canopy scorch, moderate canopy scorch, high canopy scorch and canopy consumption. Field surveys were then used to assess whether combinations of understorey fire (<80% canopy scorch) and canopy fire (>90% canopy consumption) recorded over the 2007 and 2013 fires caused differences in fuel structure. Results—Reburn severity was influenced by antecedent fire severity under severe fire weather, with the likelihood of canopy-consuming fire increasing with increasing antecedent fire severity up to those classes causing a high degree of canopy disturbance (i.e., high canopy scorch or canopy consumption). The increased occurrence of canopy-consuming fire largely came at the expense of the moderate and high canopy scorch classes, suggesting that there was a shift from crown scorch to crown consumption. Antecedent fire severity had little effect on the severity patterns of the 2013 fire under nonsevere fire weather. Areas affected by canopy fire in 2007 and/or 2013 had greater vertical connectivity of fuels than sites that were reburnt by understorey fires, though we found no evidence that repeated canopy fires were having compounding effects on fuel structure. Conclusions—Our case study suggests that exposure to canopy-defoliating fires has the potential to increase the severity of subsequent fires in resprouting eucalypt forests in the short term. We propose that the increased vertical connectivity of fuels caused by resprouting and seedling recruitment were responsible for the elevated fire severity. The effect of antecedent fire severity on reburn severity will likely be constrained by a range of factors, such as fire weather. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal cities provide a modelling challenge as surface flow is strongly affected by urban drainage networks and there is interaction between coastal and inland flooding. We present a graphics processing unit (GPU)‐based hydrodynamic model coupled to a hydraulic network that integrates adaptation analysis in the context of current and future flooding. The hydrodynamic model is based on a finite volume implementation of the shallow water equations formulated for overland flow. The hydraulic network is based on a pressure relaxation method, and uses a GPU‐based sparse matrix solver for computational speed. The integrated model is used for modelling potential combined coastal and catchment inundation and climate adaptation analysis for the City of Port Phillip, Victoria, Australia. The key outcome from the adaptation study was that resources spent towards adaptation infrastructure should be investigated in the context of sea level rise (SLR) at least for the next 50 years. The adaptation analysis identified "a tipping point" beyond a SLR of around 0.4 m (expected in the next 30 years) where conventional adaptation approaches will fail. This outcome has resulted in the City realising that significant changes in infrastructure for the region will be necessary rather than just incremental adaptation approaches to deal with future flooding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]