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Animal size, a trait sensitive to spatial and temporal variables, is a key element in ecological and evolutionary dynamics. In the context of climate change, there is evidence that some bat species are increasing their body size via phenotypic responses to higher temperatures at maternity roosts. To test the generality of this response, we conducted a >20‐year study examining body size changes in 15 bat species in Italy, analysing data from 4393 individual bats captured since 1995. In addition to examining the temporal effect, we considered the potential influence of sexual dimorphism and, where relevant, included latitude and altitude as potential drivers of body size change. Contrary to initial predictions of a widespread increase in size, our findings challenge this assumption, revealing a nuanced interplay of factors contributing to the complexity of bat body size dynamics. Specifically, only three species (Myotis daubentonii, Nyctalus leisleri, and Pipistrellus pygmaeus) out of the 15 exhibited a discernible increase in body size over the studied period, prompting a reassessment of bats as reliable indicators of climate change based on alterations in body size. Our investigation into influencing factors highlighted the significance of temperature‐related variables, with latitude and altitude emerging as crucial drivers. In some cases, this mirrored patterns consistent with Bergmann's rule, revealing larger bats recorded at progressively higher latitudes (Plecotus auritus, Myotis mystacinus, and Miniopterus schreibersii) or altitudes (Pipistrellus kuhlii). We also observed a clear sexual dimorphism effect in most species, with females consistently larger than males. The observed increase in size over time in three species suggests the occurrence of phenotypic plasticity, raising questions about potential long‐term selective pressures on larger individuals. The unresolved question of whether temperature‐related changes in body size reflect microevolutionary processes or phenotypic plastic responses adds further complexity to our understanding of body size patterns in bats over time and space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme events like drought and flooding, which threaten to amplify other global change drivers such as species invasion. We investigate the effect of wet and dry extreme precipitation regimes on invasive species' abundances in northern tallgrass prairies. Because soil moisture is a key determinant of prairie composition, theory and evidence suggest drought conditions will hinder invasion, whereas wetter conditions will enhance invasion. To test this hypothesis, we explored the effect of precipitation on invasive plant species abundance from 2010 to 2019 in 25 managed prairies using observations from 267 transects comprising 6675 plots throughout western Minnesota, USA. We estimated how increases in the number of extremely wet or dry months in a year altered overall invasive species abundance and the abundance of the highly invasive grasses Poa pratensis and Bromus inermis. We found that a greater occurrence of abnormally wet months increased invasive species abundance but found mixed evidence that abnormally dry conditions hindered invasion. Further, more moderately wet and dry months reduced native grass abundance. Together, these results suggest that more frequent extremely wet months may intensify invasive dominance and that dry months may not counterbalance these trends. Given the considerable uncertainty still surrounding the interactive effects of climate change and invasion on native plant communities, this research represents an important step toward quantifying the complex influence of precipitation extremes on invasion dynamics in managed ecosystems of critical conservation concern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The imminent threat of Mongolian montane forests facing extinction due to climate change emphasizes the pressing need to study these ecosystems for sustainable development. Leveraging multispectral remote sensing data from Landsat 8 OLI TIRS (2013–2021), we apply Tsallis non-extensive thermodynamics to assess spatiotemporal fluctuations in the absorbed solar energy budget (exergy, bound energy, internal energy increment) and organizational parameters (entropy, information increment, q-index) within the mountain taiga–meadow landscape. Using the principal component method, we discern three functional subsystems: evapotranspiration, heat dissipation, and a structural-informational component linked to bioproductivity. The interplay among these subsystems delineates distinct landscape cover states. By categorizing ecosystems (pixels) based on these processes, discrete states and transitional areas (boundaries and potential disturbances) emerge. Examining the temporal dynamics of ecosystems (pixels) within this three-dimensional coordinate space facilitates predictions of future landscape states. Our findings indicate that northern Mongolian montane forests utilize a smaller proportion of received energy for productivity compared to alpine meadows, which results in their heightened vulnerability to climate change. This approach deepens our understanding of ecosystem functioning and landscape dynamics, serving as a basis for evaluating their resilience amid ongoing climate challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a measure toward a joint target of promoting residents' life, combating climate change, and protecting ecosystem in the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau, migrant resettlement has made a remarkable achievement not only in preserving the ecological environment and building climate barriers, but also in significantly upgrading the residents' life quality. Yet, it also faces a multitude of challenges, such as the issue of just transition, which concerns the international community. To promote a just transition, the primary challenge lies in addressing the imbalance between the supply and demand in the resettlement. This includes matching the supply of public services with the material needs related to production and residents' life, as well as the alignment between the residents' cultural and psychological identification and the grassroots services available. Using Maslow's hierarchy of needs as a theoretical framework, this paper examines just transition in migrant resettlement on the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau from a supply–demand perspective based on follow-up fieldwork, and argues that the local community has achieved significant progress in promoting just transition in terms of material security, spiritual needs, and self-development, but further efforts should still be made to improve just transition and ensure a more sustainable future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 1992 and 2018, the breeding population of Adélie penguins around Anvers Island, Antarctica declined by 98%. In this region, natural climate variability drives five‐year cycling in marine phytoplankton productivity, leading to phase‐offset five‐year cycling in the size of the krill population. We demonstrate that the rate of change of the Adélie breeding population also shows five‐year cycling. We link this population response to cyclical krill scarcity, a phenomenon which appears to have arisen from the interaction between climate variability and climate change trends. Modeling suggests that, since at least 1980, natural climate variability has driven cycling in this marine system. However, anthropogenic climate change has shifted conditions so that fewer years in each cycle now prompt strong krill recruitment, triggering intervals of krill scarcity that result in drastic declines in Adélie penguins. Our results imply that climate change can amplify the impacts of natural climate oscillations across trophic levels, driving cycling across species and disrupting food webs. The findings indicate that climate variability plays an integral role in driving ecosystem dynamics under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document discusses the importance of understanding the relationship between vegetation growth and climate variations in order to comprehend ecosystem dynamics. It highlights the limitations of ground observation and the benefits of remote sensing techniques, such as vegetation indices, in studying land surface phenology. The document also explores the effects of climatic and anthropogenic factors, as well as nutrient availability, on vegetation growth and phenology. The Special Issue presented in the document includes studies on vegetation-climate relationships, land surface phenology, and the application of PhenoCam observations. [Extracted from the article]

Simple Summary: Solanum viarum has been a widely invasive species. We aimed to understand the prevailing historical dispersal, ecological niche dynamics, and distribution patterns. The invasion history of S. viarum consisted of three phases: lagging (before 1980), dispersal (1980–2010), and equilibrium (2010–present). Ecological niches remained conservative. The potential geographic distribution of S. viarum will reach a maximum in the 2050s, SSP5–8.5, and in the future, it will migrate to higher latitudes. Global factors continue to increase this threat. The relevant quarantine authorities should take prevention and control measures. Solanum viarum has become extensively invasive owing to international trade, climate change, and land–use change. As it is classified as a quarantine weed by countries such as the U.S. and Mexico, it is critical to understand the prevailing historical dispersal, ecological niche dynamics, and distribution patterns. We reconstructed the historical invasion countries and analyzed the ecological niche shift of S. viarum. Using MaxEnt based on the conservativeness of ecological niches, we studied variations in the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of S. viarum in ecosystems and variations in suitability probabilities along latitudinal gradients. The invasion history in six continents involved three phases: lag (before 1980), spread (1980–2010), and equilibrium (2010–present). The ecological niche remains conserved. The area of S. viarum PGDs had increased by 259 km2; the PGDs will expand to reach a maximum in the 2050s, SSP5–8.5. The PGDs of S. viarum will migrate to higher latitudes under the same future climate scenarios. The latitudes subject to high threats range from 20° to 30° in forest and cropland ecosystems, 15.5° to 27.5° (northern hemisphere) and 33.1° to 42.8° (southern hemisphere) in grassland ecosystems, and 20° to 35° in urban ecosystems. Global change has led to an increased threat of S. viarum at high latitudes. These findings provide a theoretical basis to monitor and control S. viarum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Understanding temporal trends and varying responses of water use efficiency (WUE) to environmental changes of diverse ecosystems is key to predicting vegetation growth. WUE dynamics of major ecosystem types (e.g., forest, grassland and cropland) have been studied using various WUE definitions/metrics, but a comparative study on WUE dynamics and their driving forces among different ecosystem types using multiple WUE metrics is lacking. We used eddy covariance measurements for 42 FLUXNET2015 sites (396 site years) from 1997 to 2014, as well as three commonly used WUE metrics (i.e., ecosystem, inherent, and underlying WUE) to investigate the commonalities and differences in WUE trends and driving factors among deciduous broadleaf forests (DBFs), evergreen needleleaf forests (ENFs), grasslands, and croplands. Results: Our results showed that the temporal trends of WUE were not statistically significant at 73.8% of the forest, grassland and cropland sites, and none of the three WUE metrics exhibited better performance than the others in quantifying WUE. Meanwhile, the trends observed for the three WUE metrics were not significantly different among forest, grassland and cropland ecosystems. In addition, WUE was mainly driven by atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration at sites with significant WUE trends, and by vapor pressure deficit (VPD) at sites without significant trends (except cropland). Conclusions: Our findings revealed the commonalities and differences in the application of three WUE metrics in disparate ecosystems, and further highlighted the important effect of VPD on WUE change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mixotrophs are ubiquitous and integral to microbial food webs, but their impacts on the dynamics and functioning of broader ecosystems are largely unresolved.Here, we show that mixotrophy produces a unique type of food web module that exhibits unusual ecological dynamics, with surprising consequences for carbon flux under warming. We develop a generalizable model of a mixotrophic food web module that incorporates dynamic switching between phototrophy and phagotrophy to assess ecological dynamics and total system CO2 flux.We find that warming switches mixotrophic systems between alternative stable carbon states—including a phototrophy‐dominant carbon sink state, a phagotrophy‐dominant carbon source state and cycling between these two. Moreover, warming always shifts this mixotrophic system from a carbon sink state to a carbon source state, but a coordinated increase in nutrients can erase early warning signals of this transition and expand hysteresis.This suggests that mixotrophs can generate critical carbon tipping points under warming that will be more abrupt and less reversible when combined with increased nutrient levels, having widespread implications for ecosystem functioning in the face of rapid global change. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human intervention and climate change jointly influence the functions and dynamics of marine ecosystems. Studying the impacts of human and climate on ecosystem dynamics is challenging. Unlike experimental studies, research on natural systems is not amendable at the scale of time, space, and biology. With confounding factors well balanced for two adjacent subtropical estuaries except urbanized disturbances, we conducted ecosystem modelling using indirect reasoning by exclusion to quantify the relative impacts of human disruption on estuarine ecosystems under climate variability. One major finding of this study is that the human intervention tends to magnify species fluctuations, complicate the species interaction network, and enhance species interaction strength combined with disclosed downscaling climate effects (indexed as North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation) on estuarine hydrology and biological communities. In addition, functional groups appeared to respond more diversely to external forcing in company with human interventions. While human perturbation was shown to destabilize the estuarine ecosystems, making them vulnerable to environmental variability under climate change, buffering effects of species diversity and trophic interaction tend to underpin the ecosystem functions. The findings of this study contribute to the holistic assessment and strategic management of estuarine ecosystems subjected to human and natural disturbances in the face of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Despite the vital role in carbon (C) sequestration and nutrient retention, variations and patterns in root C and nitrogen (N) stoichiometry of the first five root orders across woody plant species remains unclear.We compiled a dataset to explore variations and patterns of root C and N stoichiometry in the first five orders of 218 woody plant species.Across the five orders, root N concentrations were greater in deciduous, broadleaf, and arbuscular mycorrhizal species than in evergreen, coniferous species, and ectomycorrhizal association species, respectively. Contrasting trends were found for root C : N ratios. Most root branch orders showed clear latitudinal and altitudinal trends in root C and N stoichiometry. There were opposite patterns in N concentrations between latitude and altitude. Such variations were mainly driven by plant species, and climatic factors together.Our results indicate divergent C and N use strategies among plant types and convergence and divergence in the patterns of C and N stoichiometry between latitude and altitude across the first five root orders. These findings provide important data on the root economics spectrum and biogeochemical models to improve understanding and prediction of climate change effects on C and nutrient dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming alters the seasonal timing of biological events. This raises concerns that species‐specific responses to warming may de‐synchronize co‐evolved consumer‐resource phenologies, resulting in trophic mismatch and altered ecosystem dynamics. We explored the effects of warming on the synchrony of two events: the onset of the phytoplankton spring bloom and the spring/summer maximum of the grazer Daphnia. Simulation of 16 lake types over 31 years at 1907 North African and European locations under 5 climate scenarios revealed that the current median phenological delay between the two events varies greatly (20–190 days) across lake types and geographic locations. Warming moves both events forward in time and can lengthen or shorten the delay between them by up to ±60 days. Our simulations suggest large geographic and lake‐specific variations in phenological synchrony, provide quantitative predictions of its dependence on physical lake properties and geographic location and highlight research needs concerning its ecological consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought events are projected to be more extreme and frequent in the future and have profound influences on the structure and functions of terrestrial ecosystems. Thus, better understanding the mechanisms of recovery is critical for predicting the future dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. We performed a 7‐year field precipitation experiment to examine recovery of a grassland ecosystem from different magnitudes of sustained drought, from slight to extreme. The ecosystem was exposed to precipitation treatments in the first 3 years (2010–2012) and recovered during the last 4 years (2013–2016) without precipitation treatments. Overall, large reductions of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP, −43.3%) and perennial forb biomass (−83.1%) were observed in the third year (2012) of extreme drought only. Nevertheless, ANPP fully recovered within 1 year after the drought treatments were terminated, and the rapid recovery was mainly due to increased soil total nitrogen and root biomass allocation after drought. Surprisingly, large increases of ANPP under the extreme drought treatment occurred during the recovery periods from 2013 to 2015 (+74.1, +88.5, and +119.8 g m−2 year−1) compared to the control. The overcompensation offset the extreme drought‐induced reduction of ANPP in the treatment years and was primarily ascribed to the enhanced biomass of perennial grasses (PG). Higher resistance to drought and fast resource acquisition strategy might drive the rapid recovery and expansion of PG. Our findings revealed the rapid recovery of grasslands and the critical role of community overcompensation in maintaining grassland ecosystem function and stability under future climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long term monitoring programs (LTMPs) are increasingly demanded for investigating relationships between ecosystem dynamics and climate change. Most of active LTMPs are focussed on abiotic parameters and vegetation, being animals rarely included in continuous samplings. In this paper we described the results of the first two years of a LTMP involving nocturnal macrolepidoptera (including Cossoidea and Hepialoidea) started in 2019 in a suburban area of the Crati Valley, Calabria, South Italy. In the experimental farm of the Research Centre for Forestry and Wood two light traps were settled up, running about every night. During the first two years of monitoring, a total of 12,164 individuals belonging to 297 taxa were counted, showing a community similar to those observed in other Calabrian sites with Mediterranean climate and cultivated areas. The presence of small remnants of riparian forests significantly contributed to the community composition as the observation of hygrophilous species demonstrated. Among them, Xanthia ocellaris and Leucania obsoleta were never found before in the Calabria region. Furthermore, 177 species were added to the poorly investigated Crati Valley fauna. The results presented pose a solid baseline for investigating ecosystem changes of an area submitted to short term anthropic pressures and to long term climate driven changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An abundance of studies in marine systems have documented species range shifts in response to climate change, and many more have used species distribution models to project species ranges under future conditions. However, there is increasing interest in moving beyond a single‐species focus to understand how species redistribution alters ecosystem dynamics via changes in trophic interactions. We employed spatiotemporal models to characterize decadal‐scale changes in spatial overlap between the distribution of juvenile walleye pollock Gadus chalcogrammus and the distributions of four of its groundfish predators: arrowtooth flounder Atheresthes stomias, Pacific cod Gadus macrocephalus, Pacific halibut Hippoglossus stenolepis and adult walleye pollock. These fishes represent ecologically and commercially important species in a rapidly changing sub‐Arctic ecosystem, the eastern Bering Sea, Alaska, USA. We then examined whether changes in spatial overlap corresponded to changes in predation, using spatiotemporal models of predator stomach contents. We found marked shifts in spatial overlap between juvenile pollock and two predators (arrowtooth flounder and Pacific halibut) over 34 years, with changes in overlap corresponding to increases in population‐scale predation pressure. By contrast, we did not find clear relationships between spatial overlap and predation for Pacific cod and adult pollock, the two predators for which juvenile pollock constitute a much smaller diet proportion. Our findings highlight the complexity of predicting predation dynamics for generalist marine species and suggest a need for better process‐based methods for understanding the potential future ecological impacts of coupled species range shifts. However, simple metrics of spatial overlap between relatively specialized predators and their prey offer promise as a means to integrate predictions from species distribution models into ecosystem‐based fisheries management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quantitative assessment of vegetation resilience and resistance is worthwhile to deeply understand the responses of vegetation growth to climate anomalies. However, few studies comprehensively evaluate the spatiotemporal resilience and resistance of global vegetation responses to climate change (i.e., temperature, precipitation, and radiation). Furthermore, although ecosystem models are widely used to simulate global vegetation dynamics, it is still not clear whether ecosystem models can capture observation-based vegetation resilience and resistance. In this study, based on remotely sensed and model-simulated leaf area index (LAI) time series and climate datasets, we quantified spatial patterns and temporal changes in vegetation resilience and resistance from 1982–2015. The results reveal clear spatial patterns of observation-based vegetation resilience and resistance for the last three decades, which were closely related to the local environment. In general, most of the ecosystem models capture spatial patterns of vegetation resistance to climate to different extents at the grid scale (R = 0.43 ± 0.10 for temperature, R = 0.28 ± 0.12 for precipitation, and R = 0.22 ± 0.08 for radiation); however, they are unable to capture patterns of vegetation resilience (R = 0.05 ± 0.17). Furthermore, vegetation resilience and resistance to climate change have regionally changed over the last three decades. In particular, the results suggest that vegetation resilience has increased in tropical forests and that vegetation resistance to temperature has increased in northern Eurasia. In contrast, ecosystem models cannot capture changes in vegetation resilience and resistance over the past thirty years. Overall, this study establishes a benchmark of vegetation resilience and resistance to climate change at the global scale, which is useful for further understanding ecological mechanisms of vegetation dynamics and improving ecosystem models, especially for dynamic resilience and resistance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The eco-system in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is extremely fragile, and highly vulnerable to climate change. Knowledge of the changes in the ecological conditions is vital to mitigate the impact of climate change. In this study, we investigated the trend of ecological conditions of the QTP using the remotely sensed ecological index (RSEI), which is the first PCA (principal component analysis) axis of the four indexes derived from the MODIS (Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) images captured in the growing season of 2000–2020. The four indexes, i.e., NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), heat (land surface temperature, LST), wetness (tasseled cap wetness index, WET) and dryness (normalized difference impervious surface index, NDBSI), were calculated on the Google Earth Engine platform. Using land use cover change (LUCC) data, long-term meteorological records and the supplementary annual livestock production, we explored the drivers of spatiotemporal changes in the RSEI. The results show the following points: (1) the ecological conditions of the QTP have remarkable spatiotemporal variations. There were two ecological degradation periods, one of them occurred in the central region during 2005–2010, mainly attributed to the rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation. The other occurred during 2015–2020, driven primarily by overgrazing in the southwest. From 2000 to 2005, it was a period of rapid ecological restoration in the ecologically fragile northeast region. (2) The contribution rate of pc1 was stable at 60%, while the contribution rate of pc2 remained below 40%, indicating that pc1 demonstrated most of the characteristics of the four indexes. The correlation coefficients between NDVI and WET with pc1 are both positive, while LST and NDBSI have negative correlation coefficients, i.e., negative effects. This is consistent with the actual situation. (3) Overgrazing caused grass degradation in the southwest area of the QTP, which might be the main reason for the poor ecological conditions (i.e., low RSEI value) during 2015–2020. (4) Temperature and precipitation showed an increasing trend during the study period. A warmer and wetter climate is expected to have profound impacts on the ecosystems in QTP and practices should be concentrated on identifying climate-sensitive ecosystem components and designating adaptative options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil moisture (SM) spatiotemporal variability critically influences water resources, agriculture, and climate. However, besides site‐specific studies, little is known about how SM varies locally (1–100‐m scale). Consequently, quantifying the SM variability and its impact on the Earth system remains a long‐standing challenge in hydrology. We reveal the striking variability of local‐scale SM across the United States using SMAP‐HydroBlocks — a novel satellite‐based surface SM data set at 30‐m resolution. Results show how the complex interplay of SM with landscape characteristics and hydroclimate is primarily driven by local variations in soil properties. This local‐scale complexity yields a remarkable and unique multi‐scale behavior at each location. However, very little of this complexity persists across spatial scales. Experiments reveal that on average 48% and up to 80% of the SM spatial information is lost at the 1‐km resolution, with complete loss expected at the scale of current state‐of‐the‐art SM monitoring and modeling systems (1–25 km resolution). Plain Language Summary: Soil moisture (SM) widely varies in space and time. This variability critically influences freshwater availability, agriculture, ecosystem dynamics, climate and land‐atmosphere interactions, and it can also trigger hazards such as droughts, floods, landslides, and aggravate wildfires. Limited SM observational data constrained our understanding of this variability and its impact on the Earth system. Here, we present the first continental assessment of how SM varies at the local scales using SMAP‐HydroBlocks – the first 30‐m surface SM data set over the United States. This study maps the SM spatial variability, characterizes the landscape drivers, and quantifies how this variability persists across larger spatial scales. Results revealed striking SM spatial variability across the United States, mainly driven by local spatial variations in soil properties and less so by vegetation and topography. However, this SM variability does not persist at coarser spatial scales resulting in extensive information loss. This information loss implicates inaccuracies when predicting non‐linear SM‐dependent hydrological, ecological, and biogeochemical processes using coarse‐scale models and satellite estimates. By mapping the SM spatial variability locally and its scaling behavior, we provide a pathway toward understanding SM‐dependent hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological processes at local (and so far unresolved) spatial scales. Key Points: 30‐m soil moisture (SM) data shows striking and complex spatial variability driven mainly by climate and local variations in soil propertiesThis variability yields a remarkable and unique multi‐scale behavior at each location that cannot be generalized across the diverse USUp to 80% of SM information is lost at the 1‐km scale, with complete loss at the scale of state‐of‐the‐art SM observation/monitoring systems [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Fish larvae and juveniles are necessary fishery recruitment resources. As climate change and natural climate events continue to impact marine ecology, it may become difficult to determine the characteristics of changes in fish larvae and juveniles. Using samples and data from long-term marine experimental monitoring, we found a high diversity of fish larvae and juveniles in the waters around Taiwan, and the abundance of different fish species varied spatially and seasonally. We also found that distance from the coastline and topography were the key factors affecting the community of fish larvae and juveniles. By presenting these data as times series, we confirmed that 2009 was a critical year for regime change between fish larvae and juveniles in different depth zones. The year also happened to include Taiwan's worst typhoon on record. These results emphasize the need to conduct more detailed research to prevent predictable and unpredictable shocks. Taiwan is located at the intersection of tropical and subtropical islands in the western Pacific Ocean. This area is an important spawning and breeding ground for many economic and noneconomic species; however, little is known about the long-term dynamics of fish larvae and juveniles in these waters. In this study, we conducted an in-depth exploration of their spatial characteristics using 2007–2019 field survey samples. Our results demonstrated the seasonality and spatiality of the larvae and juveniles of different fish species. We also found that the continental shelf and offshore distance were key factors affecting fish larvae and juveniles. Changes in community structure were temporally correlated with the extreme rainfall of Typhoon Morakot (the worst typhoon ever recorded in Taiwan). These data can be used as a management reference for fisheries' policymaking and provide key insights into nearby marine ecosystems and the early life history of fish. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transitional features of desert environments partially determine the risks associated with ecosystems. Influenced by climate change and human activities, the variability and uncertainty of desertification levels and ecological risks in the Qinghai Area of Qilian Mountain National Park (QMNPQA) has become increasingly prominent. As a critical ecological barrier in northwest China, monitoring desertification dynamics and ecological risks is crucial for maintaining ecosystem stability. This study identifies the optimal monitoring model from four constructed desertification monitoring models and analyzes spatiotemporal changes in desertification. The spatial and temporal changes in ecological risks and their primary driving factors were analyzed using methods such as raster overlay calculation, geographic detector, cloud model, and trend analysis. The main conclusions are as follows: The desertification feature spatial model based on GNDVI-Albedo demonstrates better applicability in the study area, with an inversion accuracy of 81.24%. The levels of desertification and ecological risks in QMNPQA exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity, with a gradual decrease observed from northwest to southeast. From 2000 to 2020, there is an overall decreasing trend in desertification levels and ecological risks, with the decreasing trend area accounting for 89.82% and 85.71% respectively, mainly concentrated in the southeastern and northwestern parts of the study area. The proportion of areas with increasing trends is 4.49% and 7.05% respectively, scattered in patches in the central and southern edge areas. Surface temperature (ST), Digital Elevation Map (DEM), and Green normalized difference vegetation index (GNDVI) are the most influential factors determining the spatial distribution of ecological risks in QMNPQA. The effects of management and climatic factors on ecological risks demonstrate a significant antagonistic effect, highlighting the positive contributions of human activities in mitigating the driving effects of climate change on ecological risks. The research results can provide reference for desertification prevention and ecological quality improvement in QMNPQA. • A desertification monitoring model more suitable for semi-arid alpine mountains has been proposed. • Climate change is a major contributor to increased ecological risk. • Management Factors Show Positive Effects on Responding to Ecological Risks Driven by Climate Change. • Emphasizing the positive contribution of ecological management in addressing climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Drought is intensifying globally with climate change, creating an urgency to understand ecosystem response to drought both during and after these events end to limit loss of ecosystem functioning. The literature is replete with studies of how ecosystems respond during drought, yet there are far fewer studies focused on ecosystem dynamics after drought ends. Furthermore, while the terms used to describe drought can be variable and inconsistent, so can those that describe ecosystem responses following drought. With this review, we sought to evaluate and create clear definitions of the terms that ecologists use to describe post‐drought responses. We found that legacy effects, resilience and recovery were used most commonly with respect to post‐drought ecosystem responses, but the definitions used to describe these terms were variable. Based on our review of the literature, we propose a framework for generalizing ecosystem responses after drought ends, which we refer to as 'the post‐drought period'. We suggest that future papers need to clearly describe characteristics of the imposed drought, and we encourage authors to use the term post‐drought period as a general term that encompasses responses after drought ends and use other terms as more specific descriptors of responses during the post‐drought period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change alters forest development pathways, with consequences for ecosystem services and biodiversity. As the rate of warming increases, ecosystem change is expected to accelerate. However, ecosystem dynamics can have many causes unrelated to climate (for example, disturbance and stand development legacies). The compound effects of multiple drivers remain largely unclear. Here, we assessed forest dynamics over 28 years at Berchtesgaden National Park (BGNP), Germany, quantifying the spatiotemporal patterns and unraveling the drivers of forest change. We analyzed high-density forest inventory data, consisting of three consecutive censuses of 3759 permanent sample plots (132,866 tree records in total). We used semi-variograms to analyze spatial patterns of change, and boosted regression trees to quantify the effect of 30 covariates on changes in nine indicators of forest structure and composition. Over the 28 years investigated, the forests of BGNP were becoming denser, structurally more complex, and more species rich. Changes in forest structure were more pronounced and spatially correlated on the landscape than changes in tree species composition. Change rates of all indicators increased over time, signifying an acceleration of forest dynamics since the 1980s. Legacies and climate were the most important drivers of change, but had diverging impacts. Although forest change accelerated with increasing temperature, high legacy levels typical for late development stages dampened it. We here provide evidence for accelerating forest dynamics in mountain forests of the Alps, with potentially far-reaching consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem processes. We highlight that unmanaged forest development toward old-growth conditions could counteract climate-mediated acceleration of forest change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has multiple effects on Baltic Sea species, communities and ecosystem functioning through changes in physical and biogeochemical environmental characteristics of the sea. Associated indirect and secondary effects on species interactions, trophic dynamics and ecosystem function are expected to be significant. We review studies investigating species-, population- and ecosystem-level effects of abiotic factors that may change due to global climate change, such as temperature, salinity, oxygen, pH, nutrient levels, and the more indirect biogeochemical and food web processes, primarily based on peer-reviewed literature published since 2010. For phytoplankton, clear symptoms of climate change, such as prolongation of the growing season, are evident and can be explained by the warming, but otherwise climate effects vary from species to species and area to area. Several modelling studies project a decrease of phytoplankton bloom in spring and an increase in cyanobacteria blooms in summer. The associated increase in N:P ratio may contribute to maintaining the "vicious circle of eutrophication". However, uncertainties remain because some field studies claim that cyanobacteria have not increased and some experimental studies show that responses of cyanobacteria to temperature, salinity and pH vary from species to species. An increase of riverine dissolved organic matter (DOM) may also decrease primary production, but the relative importance of this process in different sea areas is not well known. Bacteria growth is favoured by increasing temperature and DOM, but complex effects in the microbial food web are probable. Warming of seawater in spring also speeds up zooplankton growth and shortens the time lag between phytoplankton and zooplankton peaks, which may lead to decreasing of phytoplankton in spring. In summer, a shift towards smaller-sized zooplankton and a decline of marine copepod species has been projected. In deep benthic communities, continued eutrophication promotes high sedimentation and maintains good food conditions for zoobenthos. If nutrient abatement proceeds, improving oxygen conditions will first increase zoobenthos biomass, but the subsequent decrease of sedimenting matter will disrupt the pelagic–benthic coupling and lead to a decreased zoobenthos biomass. In the shallower photic systems, heatwaves may produce eutrophication-like effects, e.g. overgrowth of bladderwrack by epiphytes, due to a trophic cascade. If salinity also declines, marine species such as bladderwrack, eelgrass and blue mussel may decline. Freshwater vascular plants will be favoured but they cannot replace macroalgae on rocky substrates. Consequently invertebrates and fish benefiting from macroalgal belts may also suffer. Climate-induced changes in the environment also favour establishment of non-indigenous species, potentially affecting food web dynamics in the Baltic Sea. As for fish, salinity decline and continuing of hypoxia is projected to keep cod stocks low, whereas the increasing temperature has been projected to favour sprat and certain coastal fish. Regime shifts and cascading effects have been observed in both pelagic and benthic systems as a result of several climatic and environmental effects acting synergistically. Knowledge gaps include uncertainties in projecting the future salinity level, as well as stratification and potential rate of internal loading, under different climate forcings. This weakens our ability to project how pelagic productivity, fish populations and macroalgal communities may change in the future. The 3D ecosystem models, food web models and 2D species distribution models would benefit from integration, but progress is slowed down by scale problems and inability of models to consider the complex interactions between species. Experimental work should be better integrated into empirical and modelling studies of food web dynamics to get a more comprehensive view of the responses of the pelagic and benthic systems to climate change, from bacteria to fish. In addition, to better understand the effects of climate change on the biodiversity of the Baltic Sea, more emphasis should be placed on studies of shallow photic environments. The fate of the Baltic Sea ecosystem will depend on various intertwined environmental factors and on development of the society. Climate change will probably delay the effects of nutrient abatement and tend to keep the ecosystem in its "novel" state. However, several modelling studies conclude that nutrient reductions will be a stronger driver for ecosystem functioning of the Baltic Sea than climate change. Such studies highlight the importance of studying the Baltic Sea as an interlinked socio-ecological system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has led to intensification and poleward migration of the Southeastern Pacific Anticyclone, forcing diverging regions of increasing, equatorward and decreasing, poleward coastal phytoplankton productivity along the Humboldt Upwelling Ecosystem, and a transition zone around 31° S. Using a 20-year dataset of barnacle larval recruitment and adult abundances, we show that striking increases in larval arrival have occurred since 1999 in the region of higher productivity, while slower but significantly negative trends dominate poleward of 30° S, where years of recruitment failure are now common. Rapid increases in benthic adults result from fast recruitment–stock feedbacks following increased recruitment. Slower population declines in the decreased productivity region may result from aging but still reproducing adults that provide temporary insurance against population collapses. Thus, in this region of the ocean where surface waters have been cooling down, climate change is transforming coastal pelagic and benthic ecosystems through altering primary productivity, which seems to propagate up the food web at rates modulated by stock–recruitment feedbacks and storage effects. Slower effects of downward productivity warn us that poleward stocks may be closer to collapse than current abundances may suggest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unprecedented and dramatic transformations are occurring in the Arctic in response to climate change, but academic, public, and political discourse has disproportionately focussed on the most visible and direct aspects of change, including sea ice melt, permafrost thaw, the fate of charismatic megafauna, and the expansion of fisheries. Such narratives disregard the importance of less visible and indirect processes and, in particular, miss the substantive contribution of the shelf seafloor in regulating nutrients and sequestering carbon. Here, we summarise the biogeochemical functioning of the Arctic shelf seafloor before considering how climate change and regional adjustments to human activities may alter its biogeochemical and ecological dynamics, including ecosystem function, carbon burial, or nutrient recycling. We highlight the importance of the Arctic benthic system in mitigating climatic and anthropogenic change and, with a focus on the Barents Sea, offer some observations and our perspectives on future management and policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Climate change triggers shrub encroachment into alpine grasslands and snowbeds. • Back from the future aims restore the encroached vegetation through shrub removal. • A multicriteria research protocol is proposed to assess the experiment feasibility. • The data obtained assessed the full comparability of control and manipulation zones. • The protocol allows assess the experiment feasibility and its long-term monitoring. Climate change triggers changes of vegetation floristic composition, physiognomy and even the onset of new successional pathways, requiring adequate, robust and replicable methodological approaches to properly track these changes. In tundra ecosystems woody plants are encroaching into grasslands and snowbeds, inducing their gradual regression. "Back from the Future" is a pilot project performing selective shrub removal from grasslands and snowbeds in the Italian Central Alps to contrast climate-driven shrub encroachment and promote the recovery and active conservation of vegetation communities. Here we propose a multi-criteria research protocol providing a quantitative tool for: a) the set-up of the manipulation experiment; b) the assessment of the full comparability of manipulation and control areas; c) the long-term monitoring of the efficiency of the manipulation experiment. The experiment was carried out in three study sites (Braulio, Cedec, Sforzellina) across an elevation gradient from the subalpine to the nival belts in the Italian Central Alps. At each study site we identified a control and a manipulation zone to assess the efficiency of the manipulation experiment compared to the natural ecosystem dynamics. The multi-criteria research protocol integrates different sampling approaches: mapping and morphological characterization of trees and shrubs; phytosociological survey of permanent plots; grid-point intercept survey of permanent plots; line-intercept survey along transects; allometric shrub measurements along transects. Our data show that this protocol is applicable to different vegetation types, across different elevation belts, and is suitable to match different targets and/or bioindicators of change. Indeed, the limitations of each selected method when individually applied can be overcome by their combination. Our data demonstrate the full comparability of the control and manipulation zone at each of the three study sites in terms of species richness, floristic composition, species coverage, shrub characteristics and volume. Our results supported the feasibility of this protocol as tool for the set-up of the experiment, to assess the full comparability of control and manipulation zones, and perform a detailed monitoring of the effects and the feasibility of the restoration action and the success and efficiency of this pilot project. The protocol elaborated in the frame of this pilot project could be exported beyond the local context and applied to similar mountain regions, especially in the European Alps, for the planning, set up and monitoring of good land management practices aiming to climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lakes in taiga and tundra regions may be silently undergoing changes due to global warming. One of those changes is browning in lake color. The browning interacts with the carbon cycle, ecosystem dynamics, and water quality in freshwater systems. However, spatiotemporal variabilities of browning in these regions have not been well documented. Using MODIS remote sensing reflectance at near ultraviolet wavelengths from 2002 to 2021 on the Google Earth Engine platform, we quantified long-term browning trends across 7616 lakes (larger than 10 km2) in taiga and tundra biomes. These lakes showed an overall decreased trend in browning (Theil-Sen Slope = 0.00015), with ∼36% of these lakes showing browning trends, and ∼1% of these lakes showing statistically significant (p-value <0.05) browning trends. The browning trends more likely occurred in small lakes in high latitude, low ground ice content regions, where air temperature increased and precipitation decreased. While temperature is projected to increase in response to climate change, our results provide one means to understand how biogeochemical cycles and ecological dynamics respond to climate change. • Lakes in taiga and tundra overall showed a decreased trend in browning from 2002 to 2021. • The browning trend of the study lakes varies significantly among ecoregions, temperature, precipitation, and lake area. • The results support the theory that climate change may cause increased DOC in lakes in pan-Arctic regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• DayCent now includes microbial-explicit decomposition and soil carbon stabilization. • Refined perennial plant traits better represent litter chemistry. • Microbe model projects less soil carbon under future climate than first-order model. Globally, soils hold approximately half of ecosystem carbon and can serve as a source or sink depending on climate, vegetation, management, and disturbance regimes. Understanding how soil carbon dynamics are influenced by these factors is essential to evaluate proposed natural climate solutions and policy regarding net ecosystem carbon balance. Soil microbes play a key role in both carbon fluxes and stabilization. However, biogeochemical models often do not specifically address microbial-explicit processes. Here, we incorporated microbial-explicit processes into the DayCent biogeochemical model to better represent large perennial grasses and mechanisms of soil carbon formation and stabilization. We also take advantage of recent model improvements to better represent perennial grass structural complexity and life-history traits. Specifically, this study focuses on: 1) a plant sub-model that represents perennial phenology and more refined plant chemistry with downstream implications for soil organic matter (SOM) cycling though litter inputs, 2) live and dead soil microbe pools that influence routing of carbon to physically protected and unprotected pools, 3) Michaelis-Menten kinetics rather than first-order kinetics in the soil decomposition calculations, and 4) feedbacks between decomposition and live microbial pools. We evaluated the performance of the plant sub-model and two SOM cycling sub-models, Michaelis-Menten (MM) and first-order (FO), using observations of net ecosystem production, ecosystem respiration, soil respiration, microbial biomass, and soil carbon from long-term bioenergy research plots in the mid-western United States. The MM sub-model represented seasonal dynamics of soil carbon fluxes better than the FO sub-model which consistently overestimated winter soil respiration. While both SOM sub-models were similarly calibrated to total, physically protected, and physically unprotected soil carbon measurements, the models differed in future soil carbon response to disturbance and climate, most notably in the protected pools. Adding microbial-explicit mechanisms of soil processes to ecosystem models will improve model predictions of ecosystem carbon balances but more data and research are necessary to validate disturbance and climate change responses and soil pool allocation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Climate zone shifts of northeastern US and maritime Canada delineated and characterized. • Based on differing spatial resolutions, optimal zones of 3, 9, 15, and 21 were determined. • Current high diversity of distinct climate zones in region is anticipated to decrease. • Projected shifts have important implications for regional forest structure and productivity. Climate zones play a significant role in shaping the forest ecosystems located within them by influencing multiple ecological processes, including growth, disturbances, and species interactions. Therefore, delineation of current and future climate zones is essential to establish a framework for understanding and predicting shifts in forest ecosystems. In this study, we developed and applied an efficient approach to delineate regional climate zones in the northeastern United States and maritime Canada, aiming to characterize potential shifts in climate zones and discuss associated changes in forest ecosystems. The approach comprised five steps: climate data dimensionality reduction, sampling scenario design, cluster generation, climate zone delineation, and zone shift prediction. The climate zones in the study area were delineated into four different orders, with increasing subzone resolutions of 3, 9, 15, and 21. Furthermore, projected climate normals under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used to predict the shifts in climate zones until 2100. Our findings indicate that climate zones characterized by higher temperatures and lower precipitation are expected to become more prevalent, potentially becoming the dominant climate condition across the entire region. Thes changes are likely to alter regional forest composition, structure, and productivity. In short, such shifts in climate underscore the significant impact of environmental change on forest ecosystem dynamics and carbon sequestration potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As global systems rapidly change, our collective ability to predict future ecological dynamics will become increasingly important for successful natural resource management. By merging stakeholder objectives with system uncertainty, and by adapting actions to changing systems and knowledge, adaptive resource management (ARM) provides a rigorous platform for making sound decisions in a changing world. Critically, however, applications of ARM could be improved by employing benchmarks (i.e., points of reference) for determining when learning is occurring through the cycle of monitoring, modeling, and decision‐making steps in ARM. Many applications of ARM use multiple model‐based hypotheses to identify and reduce systematic uncertainty over time, but generally lack benchmarks for gauging discovery of scientific evidence and learning. This creates the danger of thinking that directional changes in model weights or rankings are indicative of evidence for hypotheses, when possibly all competing models are inadequate. There is thus a somewhat obvious, but yet to be filled niche for including benchmarks for learning in ARM. We contend that carefully designed "ecological null models," which are structured to produce an expected ecological pattern in the absence of a hypothesized mechanism, can serve as suitable benchmarks. Using a classic case study of mallard harvest management that is often used to demonstrate the successes of ARM for learning about ecological mechanisms, we show that simple ecological null models, such as population persistence (Nt+1 = Nt), provide more robust near‐term forecasts of population abundance than the currently used mechanistic models. More broadly, ecological null models can be used as benchmarks for learning in ARM that trigger the need for discarding model parameterizations and developing new ones when prevailing models underperform the ecological null model. Identifying mechanistic models that surpass these benchmarks will improve learning through ARM and help decision‐makers keep pace with a rapidly changing world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Populations of many long-lived plants exhibit spatially synchronized seed production that varies extensively over time, so that seed production in some years is much higher than on average, while in others, it is much lower or absent. This phenomenon termed masting or mast seeding has important consequences for plant reproductive success, ecosystem dynamics and plant–human interactions. Inspired by recent advances in the field, this special issue presents a series of articles that advance the current understanding of the ecology and evolution of masting. To provide a broad overview, we reflect on the state-of-the-art of masting research in terms of underlying proximate mechanisms, ontogeny, adaptations, phylogeny and applications to conservation. While the mechanistic drivers and fitness consequences of masting have received most attention, the evolutionary history, ontogenetic trajectory and applications to plant–human interactions are poorly understood. With increased availability of long-term datasets across broader geographical and taxonomic scales, as well as advances in molecular approaches, we expect that many mysteries of masting will be solved soon. The increased understanding of this global phenomenon will provide the foundation for predictive modelling of seed crops, which will improve our ability to manage forests and agricultural fruit and nut crops in the Anthropocene. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increased wildfire activity and climate change have intensified disturbance regimes globally and have raised concern among scientists and land managers about the resilience of disturbed landscapes. Here we test the effects of climate, topographic variation and pre‐fire stand structure on regeneration in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) forests following high‐severity fire over the past seven decades.We surveyed lodgepole pine regeneration 8–67 years after eight high‐severity fires in western Colorado and southern Wyoming. We used dendroecological methods and machine learning to (a) identify temporal trends in post‐fire regeneration and (b) examine influences of climate on post‐fire regeneration, with focus on post‐fire establishment, initial post‐fire density and radial growth.All burned sites reached a median stocking density of ≥150 seedlings/ ha, but there was a large range of spatial heterogeneity, with regeneration being absent or scarce in many plots, implying a trend of increasing patchiness with likely cascading effects on subsequent patterns and processes. Our analysis indicated that (a) post‐fire regeneration is influenced by pre‐fire stand structure (stand age and density), elevation and post‐fire minimum temperature; (b) pre‐fire densities of >14,000 stems/ha promoted successful stocking (≥150 seedlings/ha) and reduced lag between the disturbance and initial regeneration; and (c) minimum post‐fire temperatures >−1.6°C reduced lag of initial regeneration and promoted initial radial growth.Synthesis. Our study demonstrates that lodgepole pine in high‐elevation forests are regenerating following fires under recent climatic trends, but that regeneration is affected by post‐fire climatic conditions. Importantly, forest patchiness may be increasing in a way that affects future ecological dynamics and may compromise the resilience of these systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Scolopacidae family (Order: Charadriiformes) is one of the most abundant families found in coastal wetlands. La Arenilla coastal wetland has a historical record of 20 scolopacid species; climatic events could affect the distribution and migration of the several species of this taxonomic family, reducing their species richness and abundance. Objective: The aim of the present study was to determine the relationship between richness and abundance of the species belonging to the Scolopacidae family and both Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and the coastal El Niño index (ICEN) in La Arenilla Coastal Wetland, La Punta, Callao. Methods: Sampling were carried out twice a month, between January 2013 and January 2019 using the Total Count Method in order to determine species abundance (N = 292). A Spearman correlation analysis between abundance, species richness, SST and ICEN was performed, and beta diversity was calculated through the Whittaker index (ßw) to analyze both the annual turnover for each season and the seasonal turnover within each year. Results: Two significant correlations were obtained: between SST and abundance and between ICEN and species richness. On the other hand, the ANOSIM test showed seasonal differences in abundance, and the SIMPER test showed that the greatest difference in abundance between seasons was between autumn and spring (Bray-Curtis dissimilarity = 81.57 %), and the minimum difference between winter and spring (Bray-Curtis dissimilarity = 49.86 %). Conclusions: The ecological dynamics of scolopacid communities in La Arenilla coastal wetland face important changes according to the variations in the environmental thermal parameters related to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has multiple direct and indirect potentially synergistic effects on Baltic Sea species, organism communities, and on ecosystem functioning, through physical and biogeochemical environmental characteristics of the sea. Associated indirect and secondary effects on species interactions, trophic dynamics and ecosystem function are expected to be significant. Evidence on effects of climate are compiled from and reviewed for field studies, experimental work, as well as modelling studies primarily from published literature after 2010. The responses vary within and between species groups, even between sibling species. Such subtle differences, as well as secondary feedbacks and altered trophic pathways, make projections difficult. Some common patterns arise from the wealth of recent studies, however. It is likely that the combined effects of increased external nutrient loads, stratification and internal loading will improve the conditions for cyanobacterial blooms in large parts of the Baltic. In the northernmost areas the increasing allochtonous DOM may further complicate the picture by increasing heterotrophy and by decreasing food web efficiency. This effect may, however, be counteracted by the intensification of the bacteria-flagellate-microzooplankton-mesozooplankton link, which may change the system from a bottom-up controlled one to a top-down controlled one. In deep benthic communities, continued eutrophication may promote higher sedimentation of organic matter and increase zoobenthic biomasses, but eventually increasing stratification and hypoxia/anoxia will disrupt benthic-pelagic coupling, leading to reduced benthic biomass. In the photic benthic systems warmer winters with less ice and nutrient increase enhances eutrophication. The projected salinity decline suppresses marine species, and temperature increase overgrowth of perennial macroalgae by annual filamentous alga throughout the growing-season, and major changes in the marine entire ecosystem are expected. The changes in environmental conditions probably also lead to increased establishment of non-indigenous species, potentially affecting food web dynamics in large areas of the Baltic Sea. However, several modelling studies have concluded that nutrient reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan of Helsinki Commission may be a stronger driver for ecosystem functions in the Baltic Sea than climate change. Such studies highlight the importance of studying the Baltic Sea as an interlinked socio-ecological system. Knowledge gaps include uncertainties in projecting the future salinity level as well as stratification under different climate forcings. This weakens our ability to project how overall biodiversity, pelagic productivity, fish populations, and macroalgal communities may change in the future. Experimental work must be better integrated into studies of food web dynamics, to get a more comprehensive view of the responses of the pelagic and benthic systems to climate change, from bacteria to fish. Few studies have holistically investigated the shallow water ecosystems holistically. There are complex climate-induced interactions and multiple feedbacks between algae, grazers and their predators, that are poorly known, as are the effects of non-native invasive species. Finally, both 2D species distribution models and 3D ecosystem models could benefit from better integration of approaches including physical, chemical and biological parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic and climatic stressors on freshwater ecosystems are of global concern. However, the interactions and effects of multiple stressors (e.g., nutrient enrichment, climate warming, altered wind and precipitation) acting over different spatial and temporal scales are often complex and remain controversial. Here, we reconstructed one‐century dynamics of eutrophication and primary producer communities in algal‐dominated and macrophyte‐dominated zones of a large shallow lake (Taihu, China), by integrating sedimentary photosynthetic pigments and geochemical records with water monitoring and historical archives. We aimed to explore the long‐term underlying mechanisms of the responses of water quality and lake biota to multiple environmental perturbations. We found that water quality degradation and algal community modification showed similar trends but distinct timings and trajectories in contrasting ecological zones. Onset and intensity of eutrophication in north Meiliang Bay (since the 1950s) exceeded far beyond that of macrophyte‐dominated Eastern Taihu (~1990s). Anthropogenic nutrients overtook past climatic control on production and composition of phototrophic assemblages. More importantly, lake phytoplankton responded markedly to climate warming, decreasing wind speed, and extreme weathers after cultural eutrophication. Synergistic interactions of nutrients and climate on lake ecosystems became increasingly significant in promoting harmful algal blooms (HABs) dominated by Microcystis, close to the hyper‐eutrophic north lake zones. The asynchronous limnological and ecological responses also indicated the modulating roles of lake ecological regime and catchment hydrogeomorphic characteristic. Collectively, our findings suggest that mitigation of eutrophication and HABs calls for a triple management strategy integrating anthropogenic nutrients, climate change, and lake‐catchment setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate patterns drive broad‐scale patterns of ocean ecosystem productivity. However, the mechanistic connections between regional climate variability and ocean ecosystem responses are not well understood for much of the ocean. By analyzing multi‐decadal atmospheric and oceanic data over the North Atlantic Ocean, we show that the subtropical spring bloom variability is connected to winter Greenland blocking events. The blocking enforces a southward shift of the eddy‐driven jet stream, inducing higher surface westerly winds, causing deeper vertical mixing in the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean in winter and promotes larger spring blooms. These findings reveal the physical mechanisms connecting a predominant climate variability mode in the Arctic with variability in the subtropical spring bloom and highlight the importance of ocean‐atmosphere coupling in shaping the response of oceanic ecosystems to climate variability. Our results also imply a potential teleconnection between rapid Arctic warming over Greenland and phytoplankton variability in the subtropical North Atlantic. Plain Language Summary: Due to the pivotal role of phytoplankton in food webs and the biological pump, it is important to understand how climate change may affects patterns of phytoplankton biomass. Although previous research has examined the relationship between the chlorophyll a concentration anomaly and descriptive climatic indices, the physical and dynamical process underlying the mechanisms remain unclear, particularly the role of large‐scale atmospheric circulation processes. Given that the regional climate mode is dominated by large‐scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, resolving this scientific question helps to clarify the mechanisms behind the interaction between climatic dynamics and the oceanic ecosystem under the current climate conditions. Furthermore, such an analysis helps to project future phytoplankton responses to changing climate. Here, we explored the linkage between atmospheric dynamics and phytoplankton variability in the North Atlantic. The results show that winter upper‐level atmospheric circulation anomalies over Greenland largely control the spring phytoplankton bloom in the subtropical North Atlantic. This linkage not only clarifies the mechanism between climate dynamics and phytoplankton variability, but also shows an exception to the widely accepted paradigm that global warming would cause declines in subtropical phytoplankton. Key Points: Discovered a connection between high‐latitude atmospheric dynamics and subtropical phytoplankton bloom variability in the North AtlanticRevealed the physical and dynamical process linking large‐scale atmospheric dynamics to oceanic ecosystems over the North AtlanticPosed a new conceptual model connecting high‐latitude atmospheric dynamics and subtropical phytoplankton variability in North Atlantic [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate patterns drive broad‐scale patterns of ocean ecosystem productivity. However, the mechanistic connections between regional climate variability and ocean ecosystem responses are not well understood for much of the ocean. By analyzing multi‐decadal atmospheric and oceanic data over the North Atlantic Ocean, we show that the subtropical spring bloom variability is connected to winter Greenland blocking events. The blocking enforces a southward shift of the eddy‐driven jet stream, inducing higher surface westerly winds, causing deeper vertical mixing in the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean in winter and promotes larger spring blooms. These findings reveal the physical mechanisms connecting a predominant climate variability mode in the Arctic with variability in the subtropical spring bloom and highlight the importance of ocean‐atmosphere coupling in shaping the response of oceanic ecosystems to climate variability. Our results also imply a potential teleconnection between rapid Arctic warming over Greenland and phytoplankton variability in the subtropical North Atlantic. Plain Language Summary: Due to the pivotal role of phytoplankton in food webs and the biological pump, it is important to understand how climate change may affects patterns of phytoplankton biomass. Although previous research has examined the relationship between the chlorophyll a concentration anomaly and descriptive climatic indices, the physical and dynamical process underlying the mechanisms remain unclear, particularly the role of large‐scale atmospheric circulation processes. Given that the regional climate mode is dominated by large‐scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, resolving this scientific question helps to clarify the mechanisms behind the interaction between climatic dynamics and the oceanic ecosystem under the current climate conditions. Furthermore, such an analysis helps to project future phytoplankton responses to changing climate. Here, we explored the linkage between atmospheric dynamics and phytoplankton variability in the North Atlantic. The results show that winter upper‐level atmospheric circulation anomalies over Greenland largely control the spring phytoplankton bloom in the subtropical North Atlantic. This linkage not only clarifies the mechanism between climate dynamics and phytoplankton variability, but also shows an exception to the widely accepted paradigm that global warming would cause declines in subtropical phytoplankton. Key Points: Discovered a connection between high‐latitude atmospheric dynamics and subtropical phytoplankton bloom variability in the North AtlanticRevealed the physical and dynamical process linking large‐scale atmospheric dynamics to oceanic ecosystems over the North AtlanticPosed a new conceptual model connecting high‐latitude atmospheric dynamics and subtropical phytoplankton variability in North Atlantic [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Understanding how plant phenophases respond to climate warming is key to prediction of future ecosystem dynamics. Although warming has lengthened the growing season of plants in most terrestrial ecosystems, little is known about the contribution of different phenophases to this extension. Location: Global terrestrial ecosystems. Time period: Data collected from 1979 to 2020. Major taxa studied: Terrestrial plants. Methods: Here, we conducted a global meta‐analysis, compiling 772 pairs of observational data from 42 warming manipulative experiments to investigate the temperature sensitivity (expressed as days per degree Celsius) of the durations of different phenophases across major natural terrestrial ecosystems. Results: We found that the durations of flower bud, flowering and fruiting and the total reproductive phase did not exhibit any significant change in response to experimental warming across all terrestrial plants, although large variations in temperature sensitivity of the reproductive phenology existed. The temperature sensitivity of reproductive phases was influenced by the taxa of plants. Specifically, the flower bud duration of C4 plants had a higher temperature sensitivity than that of C3 plants, and the flowering duration in woody plants exhibited a marginally higher temperature sensitivity than in herbaceous plants. In contrast to the small responses of the reproductive phases, the growing season lengthened under experimental warming. The temperature sensitivity of the growing season length was strongly affected by the magnitude of warming, showing a slower lengthening of the growing season with larger increases in temperatures. Main conclusions: These results suggest that, under future warmer climates, terrestrial plants will allocate more time to growth than to reproduction; however, the warming‐induced extension of the vegetative phase might slow down over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Combined application of CASA model and random forest regression models. • Precipitation was identified as a vital climatic factor. • The most important months for climatic factors were identified. • NPP exhibited nonlinear responses across the three analyzed temporal scales. Grassland, as highly vulnerable ecosystem, requires a comprehensive understanding of its dynamics and response patterns to climate factors in response to climate change challenges. While previous research has primarily centered on the influence of interannual climate variability on grassland Net Primary Productivity (NPP), knowledge of the impacts of seasonal or monthly climate variations on annual net primary productivity (ANPP) remains limited. This study investigated the climatic drivers of grassland NPP dynamics in Xinjiang's Altay region from 2000 to 2022 using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach (CASA) model and the random forest regression model. The study examined the significance and patterns of precipitation, solar radiation, temperature, soil moisture, and snowmelt water on NPP at three temporal scales. The results revealed the following key findings: (1) Grassland NPP declined significantly from 2000 to 2009 but showed a gradual increase from 2009 to 2022. Spatially, higher values were observed in the northern region and lower values were observed in the southern region. (2) Precipitation was the primary influential climate factor affecting grassland NPP, followed by solar radiation, temperature, soil moisture, and snowmelt water. In determining the significance of climate factor timing on ANPP, June played a critical role particularly for precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture, while August was essential for solar radiation. Moreover, the importance of snowmelt water had a bimodal distribution, with peaks in April and October. (3) Grassland NPP exhibited diverse nonlinear response dynamics and spatial heterogeneity to various climate factors at different temporal scales. These findings highlight the importance of considering both the magnitude and the local conditions, as well as the timing of climate variations when studying grassland dynamic responses to climate change and predicting future impacts. These insights enhance the comprehension of the intricate dynamics of grassland ecosystems and enhance predictions of their responses to future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Throughout his tenure as Prime Minster of Canada (2006-2015), Stephen Harper had a particular fascination with the Canadian North, illustrated in part by his annual tours of the Canadian Arctic and Subarctic region. Using these tours as a case study, this paper argues that state discourses of sovereignty, resource development, and climate change are intertwined with the simultaneous production of a tourist landscape. This tourist landscape is established in part through the circulation of affect within state discourses, like those engaged by Harper on his northern tours. The affective economies of tourism in the Canadian Arctic are heavily intertwined with both market-focused policy objectives and the moral imperative established by climate change. The result is a discourse of northern Canada that puts it within the purview of southern Canada. In particular, the affective, economic, and ecological dynamics in northern Canada produce an image of the North as both a playground for southern desires and a place in danger that is in need of saving. This moral economy in the North proposes market-based solutions and ethics for both economic and environmental problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change alters hydrologic regimes, including their variability. Effects will be pronounced in aquatic ecosystems, where resource subsidies (e.g., nutrients, carbon) drive key ecosystem processes. However, we know little about how changing hydrologic regimes will modulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of lake biogeochemistry and ecosystem metabolism. To address this, we quantified ecosystem metabolism and nutrient dynamicsat high spatial resolution in Acton Lake, a hyper-eutrophic reservoir in the Midwestern US. We captured two consecutive growing seasons with markedly different watershed discharge and nutrient loading. Temporal variability often exceeded spatial variability in both wet and dry years. However, relative spatial variability was higher in the dry year, suggesting that internal processes are more important in structuring spatial dynamics in dry years. Strikingly, marked differences in watershed discharge and nutrient loading between years produced relatively small differences in many lake metrics, suggesting resilience to hydrologic variability. We found little difference in gross primary productivity between wet and dry years, but ecosystem respiration was higher in the wet year, shifting net ecosystem production below zero. Discrete storm events produced strong, yet ephemeral and spatially explicit effects, reflective of the balance of stream input and discharge over the dam. Increases in limiting nutrients were restricted to near stream inlets and returned to pre-storm baseline within days. Ecosystem metabolism was suppressed during storm events, likely due to biomass flushing. Understanding how changing hydrologic regimes will mediate spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem metrics is paramount to preserving the ecological integrity and ecosystem services of lakes under future climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A relevant number of reports have examined the role of airborne signals in plant-plant communication, indicating that volatile organic compounds (VOCs) can prime neighboring plants against pathogen and/or herbivore attacks. Conversely, there is very limited information available on the possibility of the emission of VOCs by emitter plants under abiotic stress conditions, which may alert neighboring unstressed plants and prime these individuals (receivers) against the same stressors. The present opinion paper briefly reviews a few reports examining the effect of infochemicals produced by emitters on receiver plants subjected to abiotic stresses typical of global climate change. The ecological implications of these dynamics, as well as some concerns related to the potential roles of inter-plant communication in environmentally controlled experiments, have arisen. Some possible inter-plant communications applications (biomonitoring and biostimulation), mediated by airborne signals, and some directions for future studies on this topic, are also provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world is spatially autocorrelated. Both abiotic and biotic properties are more similar among neighboring than distant locations, and their temporal co‐fluctuations also decrease with distance. P. A. P. Moran realized the ecological importance of such 'spatial synchrony' when he predicted that isolated populations subject to identical log‐linear density‐dependent processes should have the same correlation in fluctuations of abundance as the correlation in environmental noise. The contribution from correlated weather to synchrony of populations has later been coined the 'Moran effect'. Here, we investigate the potential role of the Moran effect in large‐scale ecological outcomes of global warming. Although difficult to disentangle from dispersal and species interaction effects, there is compelling evidence from across taxa and ecosystems that spatial environmental synchrony causes population synchrony. Given this, and the accelerating number of studies reporting climate change effects on local population dynamics, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the implications of global warming for spatial population synchrony. However, a handful of studies of insects, birds, plants, mammals and marine plankton indicate decadal‐scale changes in population synchrony due to trends in environmental synchrony. We combine a literature review with modeling to outline potential pathways for how global warming, through changes in the mean, variability and spatial autocorrelation of weather, can impact population synchrony over time. This is particularly likely under a 'generalized Moran effect', i.e. when relaxing Moran's strict assumption of identical log‐linear density‐dependence, which is highly unrealistic in the wild. Furthermore, climate change can influence spatial population synchrony indirectly, through its effects on dispersal and species interactions. Because changes in population synchrony may cascade through food‐webs, we argue that the (generalized) Moran effect is key to understanding and predicting impacts of global warming on large‐scale ecological dynamics, with implications for extinctions, conservation and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ectoparasitism has a damaging impact on the economy of goat production in India, but the factors influencing its distribution and dynamics are less explored. The present study was designed to investigate the influence of environmental factors like weather and air quality parameters on the occurrence of different types of ectoparasites in goats of two agro-climatic regions of India, viz. the Upper Gangetic Plain (UGP) and the Western Himalayas (WH). The prevalence survey for ectoparasitism among goats was conducted during the four distinct climatic seasons (winter, summer, monsoon, autumn) in both regions. The season-wise data of weather parameters (maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity in morning and evening, sunrise and sunset time, mean daily temperature and relative humidity, daily variation in temperature and relative humidity, and day length) and air quality parameters (air quality index (AQI), particulate matter 2.5 μm (PM2.5), particulate matter 10 μm (PM10)) of both regions were analyzed in relation with the ectoparasitic prevalence pattern of corresponding regions. The results depict a noticeable correlation between the studied parameters and seasonal variation in the occurrence of each type of ectoparasites. This outcome on the interaction of studied parameters and ectoparasitism is intriguing and it opens a huge scope for future studies on the biometeorological aspects of host-parasite ecological interplay and evolutionary biology. The better understanding of climatological aspects of ectoparasite occurrences helps goat farmers in formulating appropriate timely intervention strategies for the economic control of ectoparasites, which in turn tackles ectoparasiticidal drug resistance and reduces threat of vector-borne diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming is facilitating the expansion of many cold‐sensitive woody species in woodland–grassland ecotones worldwide. Recent research has demonstrated that this range expansion can be further enhanced by positive vegetation–microclimate feedbacks whereby woody canopies induce local nocturnal warming, which reduces freeze‐induced damage and favors the establishment of woody plants. However, this local positive feedback can be counteracted by biotic drivers such as browsing and the associated consumption of shrub biomass. The joint effects of large‐scale climate warming and local‐scale microclimate feedbacks on woody vegetation dynamics in these ecotones remain poorly understood. Here, we used a combination of experimental and modeling approaches to investigate the effects of woody cover on microclimate and the consequent implications on ecological stability in North American coastal ecosystems. We found greater browsing pressure and significant warming (~2°C) beneath shrub canopies compared to adjacent grasslands, which reduces shrub seedlings' exposure to cold damage. Cold sensitivity is evidenced by the significant decline in xylem hydraulic conductivity in shrub seedlings when temperatures dropped below −2°C. Despite the negative browsing–vegetation feedback, a small increase in minimum temperature can induce critical transitions from grass to woody plant dominance. Our framework also predicts the threshold temperature of −7°C for mangrove–salt marsh ecotones on the Atlantic coast of Florida. Above this reference temperature a critical transition may occur from salt marsh to mangrove vegetation, in agreement with empirical studies. Thus, the interaction between ongoing global warming trends and microclimate feedbacks may significantly alter woody vegetation dynamics and ecological stability in coastal ecosystems where woody plant expansion is primarily constrained by extreme low temperature events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth's orbital variations on timescales of 104–105 years, known as Milankovitch cycles, have played a critical role in pacing climate change and ecosystem dynamics, through glacial and/or monsoon dynamics. However, the climatic and biotic consequences of these cycles on much longer (~ 107 years) timescales remain unclear, due to a lack of long proxy records with precise age constraints. Here, we show ~ 10-Myr scale variations in early Mesozoic (250–180 Ma) records of lake-level, desert distribution, biogenic-silica burial flux, atmospheric CO2 levels (pCO2), and sea-surface-temperature (SST). Their phase relationships, coupled with carbon cycle modeling results, suggest that orbitally-paced summer monsoon dynamics modulates changes in terrestrial weatherability by ~ 20%, affecting changes in pCO2 of up to 500–1,000 ppmv and 3–7 °C SST. We also infer that these ~ 10-Myr scale climatic variations could have been causally linked to biotic turnover, size variations in dinosaur footprints, and tetrapod dispersal, potentially through spatio-temporal variations in resource availability and arid-hot climatic barriers at low-middle latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rising temperatures can influence ecosystem processes both directly and indirectly, through effects on plant species and communities. An improved understanding of direct versus indirect effects of warming on ecosystem processes is needed for robust predictions of the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics.To explore potential direct and indirect effects of warming on C dynamics in arctic tundra heath, we established a warming (open top chambers) and dominant plant species (Empetrum hermaphroditum Hagerup) removal experiment at a high and low elevation site. We measured the individual and interactive effects of warming, dominant species removal and elevation on plant species cover, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), leaf area index (LAI), temperature, soil moisture and instantaneous net ecosystem CO2 exchange.We hypothesized that ecosystems would be stronger CO2 sinks at the low elevation site, and that warming and species removal would weaken the CO2 sink because warming should increase ecosystem respiration (ER) and species removal should reduce gross primary productivity (GPP). Furthermore, we hypothesized that warming and species removal would have the greatest impact on processes at the high elevation where site temperature should be most limiting and dominant species may buffer the overall community to environmental stress more compared to the low elevation site where plants are more likely to compete with the dominant species.The instantaneous CO2 flux, which reflected a weak CO2 sink, was similar at both elevations. Neither experimental warming nor dominant species removal significantly changed GPP or instantaneous net ecosystem CO2 exchange even though species removal significantly reduced ER, NDVI and LAI.Our results show that even the loss of dominant plant species may not result in significant landscape‐scale responses of net ecosystem CO2 exchange to warming. They also show that NDVI and LAI may be limited in their ability to predict changes in GPP in these tundra heaths systems. Our study highlights the need for more detailed vegetation analyses and ground‐truthed measurements in order to accurately predict direct and indirect impacts of climatic change on ecosystem C dynamics. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Direct observations of marine ecosystems are inherently limited in their temporal scope. Yet, ongoing global anthropogenic change urgently requires improved understanding of long-term baselines, greater insight into the relationship between climate and biodiversity, and knowledge of the evolutionary consequences of our actions. Sediment cores can provide this understanding by linking data on the responses of marine biota to reconstructions of past environmental and climatic change. Given continuous sedimentation and robust age control, studies of sediment cores have the potential to constrain the state and dynamics of past climates and ecosystems on timescales of centuries to millions of years. Here, we review the development and recent advances in “ocean drilling paleobiology”—a synthetic science with potential to illuminate the interplay and relative importance of ecological and evolutionary factors during times of global change. Climate, specifically temperature, appears to control Cenozoic marine ecosystems on million-year, millennial, centennial, and anthropogenic timescales. Although certainly not the only factor controlling biodiversity dynamics, the effect size of temperature is large for both pelagic and deep-sea ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic ecosystem dynamics are shifting in response to warming temperatures and sea ice loss. Such ecosystems may be monitored by examining the diet of upper trophic level species, which varies with prey availability. To assess interannual variation in the Beaufort Sea ecosystem, we examined spatial and temporal trends in ringed seal (Pusa hispida) δ13C and δ15N in claw growth layers grown from 1964 to 2011. Stable isotopes were correlated with climate indices, environmental conditions, seal population productivity, and geographic location. Sex and age did not influence stable isotopes. Enriched 13C was linked to cyclonic circulation regimes, seal productivity, and westward sampling locations. Higher δ15N was linked to lower sea surface temperatures, a higher percentage of pups in the subsistence harvest, and sample locations that were eastward and further from shore. From the 1960s to 2000s, ringed seal niche width expanded, suggesting a diversification of diet due to expansion of prey and/or seal space use. Overall, trends in ringed seal stable isotopes indicate changes within the Beaufort Sea ecosystem affected by water temperatures and circulation regimes. We suggest that continued monitoring of upper trophic level species will yield insights into changing ecosystem structure with climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic ecosystem dynamics are shifting in response to warming temperatures and sea ice loss. Such ecosystems may be monitored by examining the diet of upper trophic level species, which varies with prey availability. To assess interannual variation in the Beaufort Sea ecosystem, we examined spatial and temporal trends in ringed seal (Pusa hispida) δ13C and δ15N in claw growth layers grown from 1964 to 2011. Stable isotopes were correlated with climate indices, environmental conditions, seal population productivity, and geographic location. Sex and age did not influence stable isotopes. Enriched 13C was linked to cyclonic circulation regimes, seal productivity, and westward sampling locations. Higher δ15N was linked to lower sea surface temperatures, a higher percentage of pups in the subsistence harvest, and sample locations that were eastward and further from shore. From the 1960s to 2000s, ringed seal niche width expanded, suggesting a diversification of diet due to expansion of prey and/or seal space use. Overall, trends in ringed seal stable isotopes indicate changes within the Beaufort Sea ecosystem affected by water temperatures and circulation regimes. We suggest that continued monitoring of upper trophic level species will yield insights into changing ecosystem structure with climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]