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Yerba mate (Ilex paraguariensis) is renowned for its nutritional and pharmaceutical attributes. A staple in South American (SA) culture, it serves as the foundation for several traditional beverages. Significantly, the pharmaceutical domain has secured numerous patents associated with this plant's distinctive properties. This research delves into the climatic influence on yerba mate by leveraging the CMIP6 model projections to assess potential shifts brought about by climate change. Given its economic and socio-cultural significance, comprehending how climate change might sway yerba mate's production and distribution is pivotal. The CMIP6 model offers insights into future conditions, pinpointing areas that are either conducive or adverse for yerba mate cultivation. Our findings will be instrumental in crafting adaptive and mitigative strategies, thereby directing sustainable production planning for yerba mate. The core objective of this study was to highlight zones optimal for Ilex paraguariensis cultivation across its major producers: Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, under CMIP6's climate change forecasts. Our investigation encompassed major producing zones spanning the North, Northeast, Midwest, Southeast, and South of Brazil, along with the aforementioned countries. A conducive environment for this crop's growth features air temperatures between 21 to 25 °C and a minimum precipitation of 1200 mm per cycle. We sourced the current climate data from the WorldClim version 2 platform. Meanwhile, projections for future climatic parameters were derived from WorldClim 2.1, utilizing the IPSL-CM6A-LR model with a refined 30-s spatial resolution. We took into account four distinct socio-economic pathways over varying timelines: 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2081, and 2081–2100. Geographic information system data aided in the spatial interpolation across Brazil, applying the Kriging technique. The outcomes revealed a majority of the examined areas as non-conducive for yerba mate cultivation, with a scanty 12.25% (1.5 million km2) deemed favorable. Predominantly, these propitious regions lie in southern Brazil and Uruguay, the present-day primary producers of yerba mate. Alarming was the discovery that forthcoming climatic scenarios predominantly forecast detrimental shifts, characterized by escalating average air temperatures and diminishing rainfall. These trends portend a decline in suitable cultivation regions for yerba mate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coffee production has a large share in Brazilian agribusiness and a cultural and social importance in the country. Worldwide, Brazil is the largest producer of arabica coffee and the second largest of canephora species. In 2020, national production was 14.3 million bags of canephora coffee. Few studies on canephora coffee adaptation to climate changes can be found in the literature. Thus, our goal was to identify areas suitable for Coffea canephora cultivation in Brazil under CMIP-5 climate change framework. The study was carried out for the entire country using data on average air temperature data for the entire year, November, and the coldest month, as well as average annual accumulated water deficit for the period of 1960–2020. These data were gathered from the Meteorological Database for Teaching and Research (BDMEP) of the National Institute of Meteorology of Brazil-INMET (Brazil 1992). Furthermore, BCC-CSM1.1 climate model was used at 125 × 125 km resolution to simulate future climate using WorldClim 2 data for 2041–2080, in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. Potential climate changes can negatively impact canephora coffee plantations in all CMIP5 RCP scenarios studied. The BCC-CSM1.1 scenarios showed a 65% reduction in total areas suitable for coffee cultivation in Brazil. Rondônia and Bahia were states with the greatest impact of climate change since they had the largest reduction in areas suitable for canephora coffee growth. Currently, both states are major C. canephora producers and can therefore directly compromise regional economy. Thermal excess was the most common class for future scenarios, averaging 56.76% of the entire country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Annatto, a globally valued crop, has multifaceted applications ranging from food coloring to medicine. While adaptable, its productivity is influenced by climate, making it vulnerable to global warming. This study investigates the agroclimatic suitability for annatto cultivation in Brazil, considering current and projected climate scenarios, highlighting potential impacts on agriculture, the economy, and environmental sustainability. This study aims to carry out the annatto (Bixa orellana L.) agroclimatic zoning for Brazil in the current scenario and the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario for CMIP6. Air temperature and daily precipitation data for the 1970–2000 and for 2021–2100 for the IPSL-CM6A-LR model the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 in GeoTIFF format. This study was carried out for the entire Brazilian territory. Future climate variables were obtained by the WorldClim 2.1 platform for the IPSL-CM6A-LR model in the periods 2021–2100 and the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenario. Thus, zoning was carried out using geographic information systems software (QGIS), automated with the Python language. The annatto climate zoning for the current scenario showed five classes. The most predominant class was restricted due to excess water (42.9%), followed by the suitable class (32.5%), standing out the central Brazilian region: Mato Grosso do Sul (91.6%), Goiás (80.8%), and Tocantins (92.6%). Climate change affected negatively annatto climate zoning in all scenarios. The suitability class for the SSP5-8.5 scenario decreased in all periods, with means of 27.9% (2021–2040), 20.2% (2041–2060), 12.1% (2061–2080), and 6.5% (2081–2100). Climate changes significantly impact annatto cultivation areas in Brazil, particularly by 2081–2100, with a notable reduction in suitable zones. Key producing regions, like Monte Castelo-SP and Dracena-SP, face unsuitability, threatening local economies. The study underscores the urgency to explore annatto's adaptive capacity against the direst IPCC scenario (SSP5-8.5). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper aims to compute climatological zones apt for the cultivation of pitaya based on trends in the occurrence of climate change events from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change) in Brazil. We used temperature and precipitation data from 4942 cities collected on the NASA/POWER platform (National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources) from 1990 to 2020 to elaborate on the current scenario. The climate change scenarios were obtained using the CHELSA platform (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas) and corresponded to the periods 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 associated with four IPCC climate change scenarios. The spatialization of the data occurred according to the bioclimatic classes designed to meet the thermal and water needs of the crop. In the current scenario, class B5 has a predominance of 37.07% of the country, characterizing the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast regions, as well as the state of Paraná, as suitable for the cultivation of pitaya. Projections of temperature increase and reduction of accumulated rainfall were found throughout Brazil, but with greater impact in the North and Northeast regions, which had the greatest reduction of areas suitable for the cultivation of pitaya with a greater predominance of classes B8 and B9. In the South and Southeast regions, class B5 makes up a large part of the areas that remained suitable for the production of this fruit until 2080. The results suggest that climate change does not benefit the cultivation of pitaya in some regions of Brazil because the dimensions of the areas suitable for economic production are restricted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining agro-climatic zones (ACZs) is traditionally made by cross-comparing meteorological elements such as air temperature, rainfall, and water deficit (DEF). This study proposes a new method based on correlations between monthly DEFs during the crop cycle and annual yield and performs a multivariate cluster analysis on these correlations. This ‘correlation method’ was applied to all municipalities in the state of São Paulo to determine ACZs for coffee plantations. A traditional ACZ method for coffee, which is based on temperature and DEF ranges (Evangelista et al.; RBEAA, 6:445-452, 2002), was applied to the study area to compare against the correlation method. The traditional ACZ classified the “Alta Mogina,” “Média Mogiana,” and “Garça and Marília” regions as traditional coffee regions that were either suitable or even restricted for coffee plantations. These traditional regions have produced coffee since 1800 and should not be classified as restricted. The correlation method classified those areas as high-producing regions and expanded them into other areas. The proposed method is innovative, because it is more detailed than common ACZ methods. Each developmental crop phase was analyzed based on correlations between the monthly DEF and yield, improving the importance of crop physiology in relation to climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]