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As a performance measure for a prediction model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is insensitive to the addition of strong markers. A number of measures sensitive to performance change have recently been proposed; however, these relative-performance measures may lead to self-contradictory conclusions. This paper examines alternative performance measures for prediction models: the Lorenz curve-based Gini and Pietra indices, and a standardized version of the Brier score, the scaled Brier. Computer simulations are performed in order to study the sensitivity of these measures to performance change when a new marker is added to a baseline model. When the discrimination power of the added marker is concentrated in the gray zone of the baseline model, the AUC and the Gini show minimal performance improvements. The Pietra and the scaled Brier show more significant improvements in the same situation, comparatively. The Pietra and the scaled Brier indices are therefore recommended for prediction model performance measurement, in light of their ease of interpretation, clinical relevance and sensitivity to gray-zone resolving markers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To determine prevalence and incidence of bacterial vaginosis (BV) and risk factors in young sexually-active Australian women. Methods: 1093 women aged 16–25 years were recruited from primary-care clinics. Participants completed 3-monthly questionnaires and self-collected vaginal smears 6-monthly for 12-months. The primary endpoint was a Nugent Score = 7–10 (BV) and the secondary endpoint was a NS = 4–10 (abnormal flora [AF]). BV and AF prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were derived, and adjusted odds ratios (AOR) calculated to explore epidemiological associations with prevalent BV and AF. Proportional-hazards regression models were used to examine factors associated with incident BV and AF. Results: At baseline 129 women had BV [11.8% (95%CI: 9.4–14.2)] and 188 AF (17.2%; 15.1–19.5). Prevalent BV was associated with having a recent female partner [AOR = 2.1; 1.0–4.4] and lack of tertiary-education [AOR = 1.9; 1.2–3.0]; use of an oestrogen-containing contraceptive (OCC) was associated with reduced risk [AOR = 0.6; 0.4–0.9]. Prevalent AF was associated with the same factors, and additionally with >5 male partners (MSP) in 12-months [AOR = 1.8; 1.2–2.5)], and detection of C.trachomatis or M.genitalium [AOR = 2.1; 1.0–4.5]. There were 82 cases of incident BV (9.4%;7.7–11.7/100 person-years) and 129 with incident AF (14.8%; 12.5–17.6/100 person-years). Incident BV and AF were associated with a new MSP [adjusted rate ratio (ARR) = 1.5; 1.1–2.2 and ARR = 1.5; 1.1–2.0], respectively. OCC-use was associated with reduced risk of incident AF [ARR = 0.7; 0.5–1.0]. Conclusion: This paper presents BV and AF prevalence and incidence estimates from a large prospective cohort of young Australian women predominantly recruited from primary-care clinics. These data support the concept that sexual activity is strongly associated with the development of BV and AF and that use of an OCC is associated with reduced risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although the relationship between allergy and cancer has been investigated extensively, the role of allergy in head and neck cancer (HNC) appears less consistent. It is not clear whether allergies can independently influence the risk of HNC in the presence of known strong environmental risk factors, including consumption of alcohol, betel quid, and cigarette. Methods: The current paper reports results from: 1) an original hospital-based case-control study, which included 252 incident cases of HNC and 236 controls frequency-matched to cases on sex and age; and 2) a meta-analysis combining the results of the current case-control study and 13 previously published studies (9 cohort studies with 727,569 subjects and 550 HNC outcomes and 5 case-control studies with 4,017 HNC cases and 10,928 controls). Results: In the original case-control study, we observed a strong inverse association between allergies and HNC [odds ratio = 0.41, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.27–0.62]. The meta-analysis also indicated a statistically significant inverse association between HNC and allergies [meta-relative risk (RR) = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.63–0.91], particularly strong for allergic rhinitis (meta-RR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.40–0.76). In addition, the inverse association between allergies and HNC was observed only among men (meta-RR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.54–0.84) but not among women (meta-RR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.81–1.18). Conclusions: These findings suggest that immunity plays an influential role in the risk of HNC. Future studies investigating immune biomarkers, including cytokine profiles and genetic polymorphisms, are warranted to further delineate the relationship between allergies and HNC. Understanding the relationship between allergies and HNC may help devise effective strategies to reduce and treat HNC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Though insurance claims data are useful for researching asthma, they have important limitations, such as a diagnostic inaccuracy and a lack of clinical information. To overcome these drawbacks, we used the novel method by merging the clinical data from our asthma cohort with the National Health Insurance (NHI) claims data. Methods and Results: Longitudinal analysis of asthma-related healthcare use from the NHI claims database, merged with data of 736 patients registered in a Korean asthma cohort, was conducted for three consecutive years from registration of the cohort. Asthma-related asthma healthcare referred to outpatient and emergency department visits, hospitalizations, and the use of systemic corticosteroids. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate risk factors for asthma-related healthcare. Over three years after enrollment, many patients changed from tertiary to primary/secondary hospitals with a lack of maintenance of inhaled corticosteroid-based controllers. An independent risk factor for emergency visits was a previous history of asthma exacerbation. In hospitalizations, old age and Asthma Control Test (ACT) score variability were independent risk factors. An independent risk factor for per person cumulative duration of systemic corticosteroids was the FEV1 (Forced expiratory volume in one second)%. The use of systemic corticosteroids was independently associated with being female, the FEV1%, and ACT score variability. Conclusion: We found that old age, being female, long-standing asthma, a low FEV1%, asthma brittleness, asthma drug compliance, and a history of asthma exacerbation were independent risk factors for increased asthma-related healthcare use in Korea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To investigate the records of ambulatory medical care from patients predating the diagnosis of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) using nationwide, population-based claims data. Methods: The frequencies and costs of ambulatory medical care utilization in 337 newly-diagnosed SLE cases between 2004 and 2010, identified from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, were compared with 1,348 controls who were frequency matched for sex, age, and the catastrophic illness certificate application year of the cases. Results: Patients with SLE had a median frequency of ambulatory medical care utilization compared with controls one year prior to the index date (22 vs. 2, P<0.001). The differences were significant throughout all eight annual periods. Similarly, the inflation-adjusted costs of ambulatory medical care utilization in patients with SLE increased annually over the study period, from a median of US$18 eight years prior to the index date to US$680 one year prior to the index date. Diseases of the respiratory system (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification [ICD-9-CM] codes 460–519), digestive system (ICD-9-CM codes 520–579), musculoskeletal system and connective tissue (ICD-9-CM codes 710–739, excluding 710.0), and skin and subcutaneous tissue (ICD-9-CM codes 680–709) were the top four common causes of visits in the 0.5 to 2 year period preceding the index date and percentages of SLE patients suffered from these disorders increased progressively over the study period. Only 56.4% of the patients with SLE had consulted a rheumatologist and most of the serology tests were done within one year predating the index date. Conclusions: Increased frequencies and costs of ambulatory care utilization among Taiwanese patients with SLE occurred several years predating their definitive SLE diagnosis. When multisystemic disorders are presented in young female patients, the possibility of SLE should be considered and screened with tools such as the antinuclear antibody test. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The evidence on alcohol use disorder among conflict-affected civilian populations remains extremely weak, despite a number of potential risk-factors. The aim of this study is to examine patterns of alcohol use disorder among conflict-affected persons in the Republic of Georgia. Methods: A cross-sectional survey of 3600 randomly selected internally displaced persons (IDPs) and former IDPs. Two alcohol use disorder outcomes were measured: (i) having at least hazardous alcohol use (AUDIT score ≥8); (ii) episodic heavy drinking (consuming >60 grams of pure alcohol per drinking session at least once a week). Individual level demographic and socio-economic characteristics were also recorded, including mental disorders. Community level alcohol environment characteristics relating to alcohol availability, marketing and pricing were recorded in the respondents' communities and a factor analysis conducted to produce a summary alcohol environment factor score. Logistic regression analyses examined associations between individual and community level factors with the alcohol use disorder outcomes (among men only). Results: Of the total sample, 71% of men and 16% of women were current drinkers. Of the current drinkers (N = 1386), 28% of men and 1% of women were classified as having at least hazardous alcohol use; and 12% of men and 2% of women as episodic heavy drinkers. Individual characteristics significantly associated with both outcomes were age and experiencing a serious injury, while cumulative trauma events and depression were also associated with having at least hazardous alcohol use. For the community level analysis, a one unit increase in the alcohol environment factor was associated with a 1.27 fold increase in episodic heavy drinking among men (no significant association with hazardous alcohol use). Conclusion: The findings suggest potential synergies for treatment responses for alcohol use disorder and depression among conflict-affected populations in Georgia, as well as the need for stronger alcohol control policies in Georgia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adjustment for the differing risk profiles of patients is essential to the use of administrative hospital data for epidemiological research. Smoking is an important factor to include in such adjustments, but the accuracy of the diagnostic codes denoting smoking in hospital records is unknown. The aims of this study were to measure the validity of current smoking and ever smoked status identified from diagnoses in hospital records using a range of algorithms, relative to self-reported smoking status; and to examine whether the misclassification of smoking identified through hospital data is differential or non-differential with respect to common exposures and outcomes. Data from the baseline questionnaire of the 45 and Up Study, completed by 267,153 residents of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, aged 45 years and older, were linked to the NSW Admitted Patient Data Collection. Patients who had been admitted to hospital for an overnight stay between 1 July 2005 and the date of completion of the questionnaire (1 January 2006 to 2 March 2009) were included. Smokers were identified by applying a range of algorithms to hospital admission histories, and compared against self-reported smoking in the questionnaire (‘gold standard’). Sensitivities for current smoking ranged from 59% to 84%, while specificities were 94% to 98%. Sensitivities for ever smoked ranged from 45% to 74% and specificities were 93% to 97%. For the majority of algorithms, sensitivities and/or specificities differed significantly according to principal diagnosis, number of comorbidities, socioeconomic status, residential remoteness, Indigenous status, 28 day readmission and 365 day mortality. The identification of smoking through diagnoses in hospital data results in differential misclassification. Risk adjustment based on smoking identified from these data will yield potentially misleading results. Systematic capture of information about smoking in hospital records using a mandatory item would increase the utility of administrative data for epidemiological research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Risk factors for cardiovascular disease including diabetes have seen a large rise in prevalence in recent years. This has prompted interest in prevention through the identifying individuals at risk of both diabetes and cardiovascular disease and has seen increased investment in screening interventions taking place in primary care. Community pharmacies have become increasingly involved in the provision of such interventions and this systematic review and meta-analysis aims to gather and analyse the existing literature assessing community pharmacy based screening for risk factors for diabetes and those with a high cardiovascular disease risk. Methods: We conducted systematic searches of electronic databases using MeSH and free text terms from 1950 to March 2012. For our analysis two outcomes were assessed. They were the percentage of those screened who were referred for further assessment by primary care and the uptake of this referral. Results: Sixteen studies fulfilled our inclusion criteria comprising 108,414 participants screened. There was significant heterogeneity for all included outcomes. Consequently we have not presented summary statistics and present forest plots with I2 and p values to describe heterogeneity. We found that all included studies suffered from high rates of attrition between pharmacy screening and follow up. We have also identified a strong trend towards higher rates for referral in more recent studies. Conclusions: Our results show that pharmacies are feasible sites for screening for diabetes and those at risk of cardiovascular disease. A significant number of previously unknown cases of cardiovascular disease risk factors such as hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes are identified, however a significant number of referred participants at high risk do not attend their practitioner for follow up. Research priorities should include methods of increasing uptake to follow up testing and early intervention, to maximise the efficacy of screening interventions based in community pharmacies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While the majority of healthcare in the US is provided in community hospitals, the epidemiology and treatment of bloodstream infections in this setting is unknown. Methods and Findings: We undertook this multicenter, retrospective cohort study to 1) describe the epidemiology of bloodstream infections (BSI) in a network of community hospitals and 2) determine risk factors for inappropriate therapy for bloodstream infections in community hospitals. 1,470 patients were identified as having a BSI in 9 community hospitals in the southeastern US from 2003 through 2006. The majority of BSIs were community-onset, healthcare associated (n = 823, 56%); 432 (29%) patients had community-acquired BSI, and 215 (15%) had hospital-onset, healthcare-associated BSI. BSIs due to multidrug-resistant pathogens occurred in 340 patients (23%). Overall, the three most common pathogens were S. aureus (n = 428, 28%), E. coli (n = 359, 24%), coagulase-negative Staphylococci (n = 148, 10%), though type of infecting organism varied by location of acquisition (e.g., community-acquired). Inappropriate empiric antimicrobial therapy was given to 542 (38%) patients. Proportions of inappropriate therapy varied by hospital (median = 33%, range 21–71%). Multivariate logistic regression identified the following factors independently associated with failure to receive appropriate empiric antimicrobial therapy: hospital where the patient received care (p<0.001), assistance with ≥3 ADLs (p = 0.005), Charlson score (p = 0.05), community-onset, healthcare-associated infection (p = 0.01), and hospital-onset, healthcare-associated infection (p = 0.02). Important interaction was observed between Charlson score and location of acquisition. Conclusions: Our large, multicenter study provides the most complete picture of BSIs in community hospitals in the US to date. The epidemiology of BSIs in community hospitals has changed: community-onset, healthcare-associated BSI is most common, S. aureus is the most common cause, and 1 of 3 patients with a BSI receives inappropriate empiric antimicrobial therapy. Our data suggest that appropriateness of empiric antimicrobial therapy is an important and needed performance metric for physicians and hospital stewardship programs in community hospitals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

No recent studies have analyzed the rates of or reasons for unanticipated revision surgery within 30 days of primary surgery in spinal deformity patients. Our aim was to examine the incidence, characteristics, reasons, and risk factors for unplanned revision surgery in spinal deformity patients treated at one institution. All patients with a diagnosis of spinal deformity presenting for primary instrumented spinal fusion at a single institution from 1998 to 2012 were reviewed. All unplanned reoperations performed within 30 days after primary surgery were analyzed in terms of demographics, surgical data, and complications. Statistical analyses were performed to obtain correlations and risk factors for anticipated revision. Of 2758 patients [aged 16.07 years (range, 2–71), 69.8% female] who underwent spinal fusion surgery, 59 (2.1%) required reoperation within 30 days after primary surgery. The length of follow up for each patient was more than 30 days. Of those that required reoperation, 87.0% had posterior surgery only, 5.7% had anterior surgery, and 7.3% underwent an anteroposterior approach. The reasons for reoperation included implant failure (n = 20), wound infection (n = 12), neurologic deficit (n = 9), pulmonary complications (n = 17), and coronal plane imbalance (n = 1). The risk factors for reoperation were age, diagnosis, and surgical procedure with osteotomy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims: The American Heart Association has recently established seven ideal cardiovascular health metrics for cardiovascular health promotion and disease reduction (i.e., non-smoking, normal body mass index, physically active, healthy diet, and normal levels of cholesterol, blood pressure and fasting blood glucose). The present study seeks to evaluate how well these metrics predict mortality from all causes and cardiovascular diseases in adult Chinese living in a northern industrial city. Methods and Results: Data of 95,429 adults who participated in the Kailuan cohort study from June 2006 to October 2007 was analyzed. All participants underwent questionnaire assessment, clinical examination, laboratory assessments and were followed up biannually. During a median follow-up of 4.02 years, 1,843 deaths occurred, with 597 deaths resulting from cardiovascular diseases. Lower mortality rates from all causes and cardiovascular diseases were observed among the subjects who met a higher number of the ideal health metrics. Compared to the participants who met none or one ideal health metric, those meeting ≥5 ideal health metrics had a lower risk of all-cause mortality by 30% (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.56–0.88) and a lower risk of mortality from cardiovascular diseases by 39% (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.41–0.89) . Four metrics (smoking status, physical activity, blood pressure and fasting blood glucose) were significantly associated with all-cause mortality. Three metrics (physical activity, blood pressure and fasting blood glucose) were significantly associated with mortality from cardiovascular diseases. Conclusion: The number of ideal health metrics is negatively associated with mortality rates from all causes and cardiovascular diseases among adults in a Northern Chinese industrial city. The data supports the AHA recommendation of ideal health metrics for adults from Northern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To examine a potential association between snoring and glaucoma in a population-based setting. Methods: The population-based Beijing Eye Study 2011 included 3468 subjects with an age of 50+ years. The participants underwent a detailed ophthalmic examination. Glaucoma was determined according to the ophthalmoscopic appearance of the optic nerve head. Snoring assessed in an interview was graded into “severe snoring”, “moderate snoring”, and “no snoring”. Results: Data on snoring and glaucoma were available for 3146 subjects. Snoring was reported for 1787 (66.8%) subjects, with moderate snoring reported for 1384 (44.0%) subjects and severe snoring for 403 (12.8%) subjects. In multivariate analysis, prevalence of severe snoring was significantly associated with male gender (P = 0.002; regression coefficient B: 0.36; Odds ratio (OR): 1.44 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.14, 1.81)), higher body mass index (P<0.001; B: 0.12; OR: 1.13 (95%CI: 1.09, 1.16)), higher systolic blood pressure (P<0.001; B: 0.01; OR: 1.01 (95%CI: 1.005, 1.02)), younger age (P = 0.007; B: −0.018; OR: 0.98 (95%CI: 0.97, 0.995)), and higher cognitive function (P = 0.03; B: 0.04; OR: 1.04 (95%CI: 1.004, 1.08)), however it was not significantly associated with the prevalence of open-angle glaucoma (P = 0.10; B: −0.63; OR: 0.53 (95%CI: 0.25, 1.12)). Prevalence of severe snoring was neither significantly associated with the prevalence of angle-closure glaucoma (P = 0.65), retinal vein occlusions (P = 0.24), neuroretinal rim area (P = 0.19), retinal nerve fiber layer thickness (P = 0.16) nor vertical cup/disc ratio (P = 0.64). Conclusions: Severe snoring was not significantly associated with the prevalence of open-angle glaucoma, angle-closure glaucoma or retinal vein occlusions after adjustment for age, gender, body mass index, systolic blood pressure and cognitive function score. Our population-based study did not reveal that snoring was a risk factor for glaucoma and thus did not provide a reason to assess or to treat snoring in patients with glaucoma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A relationship between hospitalization for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis and asthma development has been suggested in case-control studies. Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the risk of current wheeze, asthma, and lung function at school age in infants previously hospitalized for RSV bronchiolitis compared to non-hospitalized children. Methods: For this study, data from a prospective birth cohort of unselected, term-born infants (n = 553), of whom 4 (0.7%) were hospitalized for RSV bronchiolitis, and a prospective patient cohort of 155 term infants hospitalized for RSV bronchiolitis were used. Respiratory outcomes at age 6 in children hospitalized for RSV bronchiolitis were compared to non-hospitalized children. Results: The risk of current wheeze was higher in hospitalized patients (n = 159) compared to non-hospitalized children (n = 549) (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 3.2 (95% CI 1.2–8.1). Similarly, the risk of current asthma, defined as a doctor’s diagnosis of asthma plus current symptoms or medication use, was higher in hospitalized patients (adjusted OR 3.1 (95% CI 1.3–7.5). Compared to non-hospitalized children, RSV bronchiolitis hospitalization was associated with lower lung function (mean difference FEV1% predicted −6.8 l (95% CI (−10.2 to −3.4). Conclusions and Clinical Relevance: This is the first study showing that hospitalization for RSV bronchiolitis during infancy is associated with increased risk of wheezing, current asthma, and impaired lung function as compared to an unselected birth cohort at age 6. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this hospital-based case-control study was to evaluate the patient-related risk factors for aseptic loosening after total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in Chinese patients. Methods: From January 2000 to December 2012, 67 patients undergoing THA and TKA who developed aseptic loosening were detected as case subjects and 336 patients without aseptic loosening, matched by the year of index surgery and type of surgery, were selected as controls. Conditional logistic regression was used to compute odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: The demographic factors and comorbid conditions associated with a risk-adjusted increase in aseptic loosening (in decreasing order of significance) were a rural place of residence (OR = 2.28; 95% CI: 1.21–4.30; p = 0.011), body mass index (BMI) ≥28 kg/m2 (vs. 18.5–28 kg/m2) (OR = 2.29; 95% CI: 1.19–4.41; p = 0.013), developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) (OR = 2.91; 95% CI: 1.11–7.66; p = 0.030), tobacco abuse (OR = 2.88; 95% CI: 1.05–7.89; p = 0.039), and age <45 years (vs. 45–65 years) (OR = 2.63; 95% CI: 1.01–6.80; p = 0.047). Conclusions: Patients aged <45 years and those with a BMI of ≥28 kg/m2, a preoperative diagnosis of DDH, history of tobacco abuse, or living in rural areas are at increased risk for aseptic loosening after THA and TKA in Chinese population. Additional systematic large-scale studies are needed to verify these results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims: Breathlessness is a primary clinical feature of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We aimed to describe the frequency of and factors associated with breathlessness in a cohort of COPD patients identified from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), a general practice electronic medical records database. Methods: Patients with a record of COPD diagnosis after January 1 2008 were identified in the CPRD. Breathlessness was assessed using the Medical Research Council (MRC) dyspnoea scale, with scoring ranging from 1–5, which has been routinely administered as a part of the regular assessment of patients with COPD in the general practice since April 2009. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression estimated independent associations with dyspnoea. Negative binomial regression evaluated a relationship between breathlessness and exacerbation rate during follow-up. Results: The total cohort comprised 49,438 patients diagnosed with COPD; 40,425 (82%) had any MRC dyspnoea grade recorded. Of those, 22,770 (46%) had moderate-to-severe dyspnoea (MRC≥3). Breathlessness increased with increasing airflow limitation; however, moderate-to-severe dyspnoea was also observed in 32% of patients with mild airflow obstruction. Other factors associated with increased dyspnoea grade included female gender, older age (≥70 years), obesity (BMI ≥30), history of moderate-to-severe COPD exacerbations, and frequent visits to the general practitioner. Patients with worse breathlessness were at higher risk of COPD exacerbations during follow-up. Conclusions: Moderate-to-severe dyspnoea was reported by >40% of patients diagnosed with COPD in primary care. Presence of dyspnoea, including even a perception of mild dyspnoea (MRC = 2), was associated with increased disease severity and a higher risk of COPD exacerbations during follow-up. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To determine if maternal use of snuff (containing high levels of nicotine, low levels of nitrosamines and no combustion products) is associated with an increased risk of oral cleft malformations in the infant and whether cessation of snuff use or smoking before the antenatal booking influences the risk. Method: A population-based cohort study was conducted on all live born infants, recorded in the Swedish Medical Birth Register from 1999 through 2009 (n = 1 086 213). Risks of oral clefts were evaluated by multivariate logistic regression analyses (using adjusted odds ratios, with 95% confidence intervals [CI]). Results: Among 975 866 infants that had information on maternal tobacco use, 1761 cases of oral clefts were diagnosed. More than 50% of the mothers who used snuff or smoked three months prior pregnancy stopped using before the antenatal booking. Almost 8% of the mothers were smoking at the antenatal booking and 1,1% of the mothers used snuff. Compared with infants of non-tobacco users, the adjusted odds ratios (95% CI) of any oral cleft for infants of mothers who continued to use snuff or to smoke were 1.48 [1.00–2.21] and 1.19 [1.01–1.41], respectively. In contrast, in infants of mothers who stopped using snuff or stopped smoking before the antenatal booking, the corresponding risks were not increased (adjusted odds ratios [95% CI] were 0.71 [0.44–1.14] and 0.88 [0.73–1.05], respectively). Conclusion: Maternal snuff use or smoking in early pregnancy is associated with an increased risk of oral clefts. Infants of mothers who stopped using snuff or stopped smoking before the antenatal booking had no increased risk of oral cleft malformations. Oral snuff or other sources of nicotine should not be recommended as an alternative for smoke-cessation during pregnancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Microalbuminuria is associated with increased risk of renal disease and cardiovascular diseases even in non-diabetic subjects. High incidence rates of microalbuminuria have been found in a number of population-based studies. However, the prevalence and risk factors associated with microalbuminuria in the general population in Korea are unclear. Objectives: The present study was performed to estimate the prevalence of microalbuminuria and investigate the associated risk factors in the general adult population using the Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES V-2) data from 2011. Methods: A total of 5,202 participants (mean age, 45.6 years; men, 2,337; women, 2,865) were included in the analysis. Microalbuminuria was evaluated in participants of KNHANES V-2 based on the urine albumin–creatinine ratio. Estimated glomerular filtration rate was calculated using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study equation. Results: The weighted prevalence of microalbuminuria was 5.2% (95% CI, 4.4–6.1) in the general population. The prevalence of albuminuria is increased with age. After adjustment for age and sex, the presence of albuminuria was associated with increased waist circumference, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, aspartate aminotransferase, triglyceride, fasting plasma glucose, and the presence of hypertension and diabetes. In logistic regression analyses, older age, female sex, diabetes, hypertension, and serum aspartate aminotransferase were independently associated with the presence of albuminuria. Conclusion: The prevalence of microalbuminuria was found to be 5.2%, and conventional risk factors for cardiovascular diseases are closely related to the presence of microalbuminuria in Korea. Microalbuminuria may be a useful marker to identify individuals with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Relatively few data exist on the burden of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and use of renal replacement therapy (RRT)–a life-saving therapy–in developing regions. No study has quantified the proportion of patients who develop ESRD but are unable to access RRT. Methods: We performed a comprehensive literature search to estimate use and annual initiation of RRT worldwide, and present these estimates according to World Bank regions. We also present estimates of survival and of etiology of diseases in patients undergoing RRT. Using data on prevalence of diabetes and hypertension, we modeled the incidence of ESRD related to these risk factors in order to quantify the gap between ESRD and use of RRT in developing regions. Results: We find that 1.9 million patients are undergoing RRT worldwide, with continued use and annual initiation at 316 and 73 per million population respectively. RRT use correlates directly (Pearson’s r = 0.94) with regional income. Hemodialysis remains the dominant form of RRT but there is wide regional variation in its use. With the exception of the Latin American and Caribbean region, it appears that initiation of RRT in developing regions is restricted to fewer than a quarter of patients projected to develop ESRD. This results in at least 1.2 million premature deaths each year due to lack of access to RRT as a result of diabetes and elevated blood pressure and as many as 3.2 million premature deaths due to all causes of ESRD. Conclusion: Thus, the majority of patients projected to reach ESRD due to diabetes or hypertension in developing regions are unable to access RRT; this gap will increase with rising prevalence of these risk factors worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The risk of acute pancreatitis in patients on long-term peritoneal dialysis is higher as compared to the general population. However, the relationship between long-term hemodialysis and acute pancreatitis has never been established. Objectives: We investigated the incidence of acute pancreatitis among patients on long-term hemodialysis in Taiwan to evaluate if there is a higher risk of acute pancreatitis in comparison to the general population. Methods: We utilized a National Health Insurance (NHI) claims data sample containing one million beneficiaries. We followed all adult beneficiaries from January 1, 2007 until December 31, 2010 to see if they had been hospitalized for acute pancreatitis during this period. We further identified patients on chronic hemodialysis and compared their risk of acute pancreatitis with the general population. Results: This study included 2603 patients with long-term hemodialysis and 773,140 patients without hemodialysis. After controlling for age, gender, Charlson Comorbidity Index Score, geographic region, socioeconomic status and urbanization level, the adjusted hazard ratio was 3.44 (95% Confidence interval, 2.5–4.7). Conclusions: The risk of acute pancreatitis in patients on long-term hemodialysis is significantly higher in comparison to the general population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Periodontal disease is common among adults and is associated with an increasing risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We aimed to investigate the prevalence and risk factors of CKD in patients with periodontal disease in China. Methods: In the current cross-sectional study, patients with periodontal disease were included from Guangdong Provincial Stomatological Hospital between March 2011 and August 2011. CKD was defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the presence of albuminuria, or hematuria. All patients with periodontal disease underwent a periodontal examination, including periodontal probing pocket depth, gingival recession, and clinical attachment level by Florida Probe. They completed a questionnaire and had blood and urine samples taken. The adjusted prevalence of indicators of kidney damage was calculated and risk factors associated with CKD were analyzed. Results: A total of 1392 patients with periodontal disease were invited to participate this study and 1268 completed the survey and examination. After adjusting for age and sex, the prevalence of reduced eGFR, albuminuria, and hematuria was 2.7% (95% CI 1.7–3.7), 6.7% (95% CI 5.5–8.1) and 10.9% (95% CI 9.2–12.5), respectively. The adjusted prevalence of CKD was 18.2% (95% CI 16.2–20.3). Age, male, diabetes, hypertension, history of CKD, hyperuricemia, and interleukin-6 levels (≥7.54 ng/L) were independent risk factors for reduced eGFR. Female, diabetes, hypertension, history of CKD, hyperuricemia, high level of cholesterol, and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) (≥1.03 mg/L) and TNF-α levels (≥1.12 ng/L) were independently associated with an increased risk of albuminuria. Female, lower education (

Background: South Asians in England have an increased risk of childhood cancer but incidence by their individual ethnicities using self-assigned ethnicity is unknown. Our objective was to compare the incidence of childhood cancer in British Indians and Whites in Leicester, which has virtually complete, self-assigned, ethnicity data and the largest population of Indians in England. Methods: We obtained data on all cancer registrations from 1996 to 2008 for Leicester with ethnicity obtained by linkage to the Hospital Episodes Statistics database. Age-standardised incidence rates were calculated for childhood cancers in Indians and Whites as well as rate ratios, adjusted for age. Results: There were 33 cancers registered among Indian children and 39 among White children. The incidence rate for Indians was greater compared to Whites for all cancers combined (RR 1.82 (95% CI 1.14 to 2.89); p = 0.01), with some evidence of increased risk of leukaemia (RR 2.20 (0.95 to 5.07); p = 0.07), lymphoma (RR 3.96 (0.99 to 15.84); p = 0.04) and central nervous system tumours (RR 2.70 (1.00 to 7.26); p = 0.05). Rates were also higher in British Indian children compared to children in India. Conclusions: British Indian children in Leicester had an increased risk of developing cancer compared to White children, largely due to a higher incidence of central nervous system and haematological malignancies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A fundamental aspect of epidemiological studies concerns the estimation of factor-outcome associations to identify risk factors, prognostic factors and potential causal factors. Because reliable estimates for these associations are important, there is a growing interest in methods for combining the results from multiple studies in individual participant data meta-analyses (IPD-MA). When there is substantial heterogeneity across studies, various random-effects meta-analysis models are possible that employ a one-stage or two-stage method. These are generally thought to produce similar results, but empirical comparisons are few. Objective: We describe and compare several one- and two-stage random-effects IPD-MA methods for estimating factor-outcome associations from multiple risk-factor or predictor finding studies with a binary outcome. One-stage methods use the IPD of each study and meta-analyse using the exact binomial distribution, whereas two-stage methods reduce evidence to the aggregated level (e.g. odds ratios) and then meta-analyse assuming approximate normality. We compare the methods in an empirical dataset for unadjusted and adjusted risk-factor estimates. Results: Though often similar, on occasion the one-stage and two-stage methods provide different parameter estimates and different conclusions. For example, the effect of erythema and its statistical significance was different for a one-stage (OR = 1.35, ) and univariate two-stage (OR = 1.55, ). Estimation issues can also arise: two-stage models suffer unstable estimates when zero cell counts occur and one-stage models do not always converge. Conclusion: When planning an IPD-MA, the choice and implementation (e.g. univariate or multivariate) of a one-stage or two-stage method should be prespecified in the protocol as occasionally they lead to different conclusions about which factors are associated with outcome. Though both approaches can suffer from estimation challenges, we recommend employing the one-stage method, as it uses a more exact statistical approach and accounts for parameter correlation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The outbreak of Shiga toxin producing E.coli O104:H4 in northern Germany in 2011 was one of the largest worldwide and involved mainly adults. Post-diarrheal hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) occurred in 22% of STEC positive patients. This study’s aim was to assess risk factors for HUS in STEC-infected patients and to develop a score from routine hospital parameters to estimate patient risks for developing HUS. In a cohort analysis, adult patients with STEC infection were included in five participating hospitals in northern Germany between May and July 2011. Clinical data were obtained from questionnaires and medical records, laboratory data were extracted from hospitals’ electronic data systems. HUS was defined as thrombocytopenia, hemolytic anemia and acute renal dysfunction. Random forests and multivariate logistic regression were used to identify risk factors for HUS and develop a score using the estimated coefficients as weights. Among 259 adults with STEC infection, vomiting (OR 3.48,95%CI 1.88–6.53), visible blood in stools (OR 3.91,95%CI1.20–16.01), age above 75 years (OR 3.27, 95%CI 1.12–9.70) and elevated leukocyte counts (OR 1.20, 95%CI 1.10–1.31, per 1000 cells/mm3) were identified as independent risk factors for HUS. A score using these variables has an area under the ROC curve of 0.74 (95%CI 0.68–0.80). Vomiting, visible blood in stools, higher leukocyte counts, and higher age indicate increased risk for developing HUS. A score using these variables might help to identify high risk patients who potentially benefit from aggressive pre-emptive treatment to prevent or mitigate the devastating consequences of HUS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Birmingham is the largest UK city after London, and central Birmingham has an annual tuberculosis incidence of 80 per 100,000. We examined seasonality and sunlight as drivers of tuberculosis incidence. Hours of sunshine are seasonal, sunshine exposure is necessary for the production of vitamin D by the body and vitamin D plays a role in the host response to tuberculosis. Methods: We performed an ecological study that examined tuberculosis incidence in Birmingham from Dec 1981 to Nov 2009, using publicly-available data from statutory tuberculosis notifications, and related this to the seasons and hours of sunshine (UK Meteorological Office data) using unmeasured component models. Results: There were 9,739 tuberculosis cases over the study period. There was strong evidence for seasonality, with notifications being 24.1% higher in summer than winter (p<0.001). Winter dips in sunshine correlated with peaks in tuberculosis incidence six months later (4.7% increase in incidence for each 100 hours decrease in sunshine, p<0.001). Discussion and Conclusion: A potential mechanism for these associations includes decreased vitamin D levels with consequent impaired host defence arising from reduced sunshine exposure in winter. This is the longest time series of any published study and our use of statutory notifications means this data is essentially complete. We cannot, however, exclude the possibility that another factor closely correlated with the seasons, other than sunshine, is responsible. Furthermore, exposure to sunlight depends not only on total hours of sunshine but also on multiple individual factors. Our results should therefore be considered hypothesis-generating. Confirmation of a potential causal relationship between winter vitamin D deficiency and summer peaks in tuberculosis incidence would require a randomized-controlled trial of the effect of vitamin D supplementation on future tuberculosis incidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]