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Summary: Shrub encroachment, forest decline and wildfires have caused large‐scale changes in semi‐arid vegetation over the past 50 years. Climate is a primary determinant of plant growth in semi‐arid ecosystems, yet it remains difficult to forecast large‐scale vegetation shifts (i.e. biome shifts) in response to climate change. We highlight recent advances from four conceptual perspectives that are improving forecasts of semi‐arid biome shifts. Moving from small to large scales, first, tree‐level models that simulate the carbon costs of drought‐induced plant hydraulic failure are improving predictions of delayed‐mortality responses to drought. Second, tracer‐informed water flow models are improving predictions of species coexistence as a function of climate. Third, new applications of ecohydrological models are beginning to simulate small‐scale water movement processes at large scales. Fourth, remotely‐sensed measurements of plant traits such as relative canopy moisture are providing early‐warning signals that predict forest mortality more than a year in advance. We suggest that a community of researchers using modeling approaches (e.g. machine learning) that can integrate these perspectives will rapidly improve forecasts of semi‐arid biome shifts. Better forecasts can be expected to help prevent catastrophic changes in vegetation states by identifying improved monitoring approaches and by prioritizing high‐risk areas for management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Savannas are characterized by the coexistence of trees and flammable grasses. Yet, tree-grass coexistence has been labeled as paradoxical-how do these two functional groups coexist over such an extensive area, despite being generally predisposed to excluding each other? For instance, many trees develop dense canopies that limit grass growth, and many grasses facilitate frequent/intense fires, increasing tree mortality. This study revisits tree-grass coexistence with a model of hierarchical competition between pyrogenic grasses, 'forest trees' adapted to closed-canopy competition, and 'savanna trees' that are inferior competitors in closed-canopy communities, but more resistant to fire. The assumptions of this model are supported by empirical observations, including a systematic review of savanna and forest tree community composition reported here. In general, the model simulations show that when savanna trees exert weaker competitive effects on grasses, a self-reinforcing grass community is maintained, which limits forest tree expansion while still allowing savanna trees to persist (albeit as a subdominant to grasses). When savanna trees exert strong competitive effects on grasses, savanna trees cover increases initially, but as grasses decline their inhibitory effect on forest trees weakens, allowing forest trees to expand and exclude grasses and savanna trees. Rather than paradoxical, these results suggest that having weaker competitive effects on grasses may be advantageous for savanna trees, leading to greater long-term abundance and stability. We label this the 'enemy of my enemy hypothesis,' which might apply to species coexistence in communities defined by hierarchical competition or with species capable of generating strong ecological feedbacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coexistence of woody plants and grasses in savannas is determined by a complex set of interacting factors that determine access to resources and demographic dynamics, under the control of external drivers and vegetation feedbacks with the physical environment. Existing theories explain coexistence mainly as an effect of competitive relations and/or disturbances. However, theoretical studies on the way facilitative interactions resulting from hydraulic lift affect tree-grass coexistence and the range of environmental conditions in which savannas are stable are still lacking., We investigated the role of hydraulic lift in the stability of tree-grass coexistence in savannas. To that end, we developed a new mechanistic model that accounts for both competition for soil water in the shallow soil and fire-induced disturbance., We found that hydraulic lift favors grasses, which scavenge the water lifted by woody plants. Thus, hydraulic lift expands (at the expenses of woodlands) the range of environmental conditions in which savannas are stable., These results indicate that hydraulic lift can be an important mechanism responsible for the coexistence of woody plants and grasses in savannas. Grass facilitation by trees through the process of hydraulic lift could allow savannas to persist stably in mesic regions that would otherwise exhibit a forest cover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]