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This paper studies the dynamics of land-use in the Brazilian Amazon using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. A fixed effect panel data specification is used to control for the heterogeneity in the data. Meanwhile, spatial autocorrelation is also diagnosed by a statistical methodology that allows us to split the model in subsamples (clusters) of more homogenous municipalities. The clustering analysis shows that there are three clusters whose land-use patterns are strongly different in an economical point of view. The first cluster identifies municipalities dedicated to logging, natural resources exploitation and slash-and-burn cultures; the second cluster shows a more diversified agriculture; while the third cluster presents very developed intensive agriculture municipalities. Another contribution of this article relies on the assessment of contemporaneous causal relation among distinct land-uses areas. This new approach allows us to evaluate the dynamics relations arisen from unexpected innovations in the process of soil occupation. The impulse response functions (IRF) and the forecast error variance decompositions (FEVD) generate the following results: (1) in the opposition direction of previous studies, we find that the demand for cropping does not require to clear new areas of forest.; (2) contrary to previous studies we do not find indication that cattle ranching is the primary driver of deforestation; (3) the impact of a shock of pasture land on itself is virtually null at the initial stages, but increases over time, not requiring to clear extra areas of forest land but rather competing with crop land; (4) it seems that if not for all the Amazon Basin, at least in one cluster, cattle ranching and cropping could be competitive activities; and (5) we find out that in the long run pasture innovation is responsible for the major percent of the forecast error concern all land uses. It probably means that the destiny of distinct categories of land, in cluster one, is endogenously determine by activities connected to cattle. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of agricultural technical efficiency on the propensity of farmers to convert natural land into agricultural plots, i.e., to deforest, in the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA). A two-step econometric approach is adopted. A bootstrapped translog stochastic frontier that is a posteriori checked for functional consistency is used to assess technical efficiency and these estimates are put into a land-use model to assess the impact of productivity on deforestation. Analysis of agricultural census tract data suggests that technical efficiency has a U-shaped effect: both less and more efficient farms use more land for their agricultural activities and so have a positive effect on deforestation. However, the majority of farms in the BLA are on the ascendant slope, so that efficiency implies more deforestation in the BLA. The poor environmental valuation of the Brazilian forest, the uneven land distribution, and the problem of the de facto openly accessed forested and “unproductive” lands in the BLA could explain the U-shaped effect of technical efficiency on the conversion of forested land into agricultural land. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The process of human occupation in Brazilian Amazonia is heterogeneous in space and time. The goal of this paper is to explore intra-regional differences in land-use determining factors. We built spatial regression models to assess the determining factors of deforestation, pasture, temporary and permanent agriculture in four space partitions: the whole Amazon; the Densely Populated Arch (southern and eastern parts of the Amazon), where most deforestation has occurred; Central Amazon, where the new frontiers are located; and Occidental Amazon, still mostly undisturbed. Our land-use data combines deforestation maps derived from remote sensing and 1996 agricultural census. We compiled a spatially explicit database with 50 socio-economic and environmental potential factors using 25km×25km regular cells. Our results show that the concentrated deforestation pattern in the Arch is related to the diffusive nature of land-use change, proximity to urban centers and roads, reinforced by the higher connectivity to the more developed parts of Brazil and more favorable climatic conditions, expressed as intensity of the dry season. Distance to urban centers was used as a proxy of accessibility to local markets, and was found to be as important as distance to roads in most models. However, distance to roads and to urban centers does not explain intra-regional differences, which were captured by other factors, such as connection to national markets and more favorable climatic conditions in the Arch. Agrarian structure results show that areas in which the land structure is dominated by large and medium farms have a higher impact on deforestation and pasture extent. Temporary and permanent agriculture patterns were concentrated in areas where small farms are dominant. We conclude that the heterogeneous occupation patterns of the Amazon can only be explained when combining several factors related to the organization of the productive systems, such as favorable environmental conditions and access to local and national markets. Agrarian structure and land-use analysis reinforced this conclusion, indicating the heterogeneity of land-use systems by type of actor, and the influence of the agrarian structure on land-use patterns across the region. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Brazil's Amazon deforestation is a major global and national environmental concern, and the ability to model and project both its course and the effect of different policy options depends on understanding how this process occurs at present and how it might change in the future. The present paper addresses one key factor in Amazon deforestation: land-tenure concentration in settlements. Brazil's policies for establishing and regulating settlement projects represent critical government decisions shaping the landscape in the 5 × 106 km2 Legal Amazonia region. We used remote-sensing data and information provided by the National Institute for Colonization and Agrarian Reform (INCRA) to evaluate the effect of land-tenure concentration in a settlement project (Projeto de Assentamento) located in a frontier area where cattle-ranching is expanding. We identified the actors and their deforestation patterns in the Matupi settlement in the southern part of Brazil's state of Amazonas. We spatially identified actors who concentrated "lots" (the parcels of land distributed to individual settlers) in 2011 and assessed whether the concentration was done by individual landholders or by "families" (where members merged their lots and the clearing was done together). Deforestation rates (1995–2011) were estimated for each type of actor and the trajectory of deforestation in the settlement (cumulative deforestation to 1994 and annual deforestation 1995–2016) was also analyzed. Concentrators occupied 28% (9653 ha) of the settlement and 29% of the lots (152 lots) analyzed; the numbers of lots concentrated ranged from two to ten. Concentrators of two lots and non-concentrators were the predominant actor types in the settlement. The mean annual clearing per landholding for concentrators of two lots (families: 4.1 ± 2.8 ha (mean ± SD); individuals: 5.1 ± 4.6 ha) was greater than for non-concentrators (1.7 ± 1.2 ha), despite their having similar patterns of small clearings. Concentrators of three or more lots had mean annual clearing per landholding between 6.2 ± 12.2 ha and 23.9 ± 38.7 ha and, the pattern of patches cleared per year >34 ha in area was predominant. The deforestation rate per lot was higher among concentrators as compared to non-concentrators, showing that lot concentration speeds deforestation. Analysis of deforestation patterns helps to better understand the process of lot concentration by spatially identifying the predominant patterns of each type of actor. The approach used in our study could assist authorities in identifying and monitoring land-tenure concentration in settlements. Agrarian-reform policymakers need to monitor this process, since it speeds deforestation in Amazonian settlement projects, as well as undermining the social objectives of the agrarian-reform program. • Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia is increased by land-tenure concentration. • Settlers receive 1 lot per family, but newcomers buy out the original settlers. • "Concentrators" in settlements establish ranches of 2–10 lots (56–600 ha). • In the Matupi settlement, 29% of the lots had been concentrated after 16 years. • Concentrators with ≥3 lots typically clear in patches >34 ha in area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]