Search

As the most frequent and longest-lasting climate-related disasters, droughts are complex processes caused by hydrological imbalance, and have significant effects on ecosystem function and socioeconomic development. However, most conventional satellite-based drought indices and combined drought indices are mechanically constrained by the fact that they were developed and evaluated for a specific climate or critical ecological region, especially in China. A comprehensive drought index should be developed for extensive application in different climate-hydrology regions. To address this problem, an optimised principal component analysis method (PCA-RF) was proposed to support drought assessment across the transitional area between the humid and arid regions in central China, including the Loess Plateau (LP) and Qinling Mountains (QL). This method eliminated the causal relationships of non-linear changes for multi-aspect parameters such as land surface temperature, precipitation and soil moisture, and was used in developing a new index named "Meteorological drought index by PCA-RF methods (PMDI)". The results showed that PMDI had higher correlations and lower root mean square error than other drought indices (established using the empirical-weights method) with the 1-month standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI-1). That means PMDI performed well in meteorological drought monitoring. Additionally, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) were utilised to evaluate PMDI effectiveness in detecting vegetation response to drought, which represents agricultural drought. The results indicated that correlations between PMDI and vegetation indices (VIs) were stronger when severe or extreme droughts occurred, and that their relationships were affected by the high spatiotemporal heterogeneity in vegetation change over the LP and QL. Overall, PMDI was shown here to be a very suitable index for monitoring meteorological drought (short-term) and has effective action in capturing the response of vegetation signals to agriculture drought events (long-term). Given the excellent performance of PMDI in diverse climate-hydrology conditions of our study regions, we concluded that the PMDI has considerable potential as a drought monitoring methodology on a larger spatial scale. • A new drought index was developed (PMDI), which integrated multiple sources of information describing different aspects. • PMDI performed well in different climate-hydrology regions for short- and long-term drought monitoring. • PMDI has reasonably good potential applicability in drought monitoring on a larger spatial scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is a complex and poorly understood natural hazard in complex terrain and plains lie in foothills of Hindukush-Himalaya-Karakoram region of Central and South Asia. Few research studied climate change scenarios in the transboundary Chitral Kabul River Basin (CKRB) despite its vulnerability to global warming and importance as a region inhabited with more than 10 million people where no treaty on use of water exists between Afghanistan and Pakistan. This study examines the meteorological and agricultural drought between 2000 and 2018 and their future trends from 2020 to 2030 in the CKRB. To study meteorological and agricultural drought comprehensively, various single drought indices such as Precipitation Condition Index (PCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Soil Moisture Condition Index (SMCI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and combined drought indices such as Scaled Drought Condition Index (SDCI) and Microwave Integrated Drought Index (MIDI) were utilized. As non-microwave data were used in MIDI, this index was given a new name as Non-Microwave Integrated Drought Index (NMIDI). Our research has found that 2000 was the driest year in the monsoon season followed by 2004 that experienced both meteorological and agricultural drought between 2000 and 2018. Results also indicate that though there exists spatial variation in the agricultural and meteorological drought, but temporally there has been a decreasing trend observed from 2000 to 2018 for both types of droughts. This trend is projected to continue in the future drought projections between 2020 and 2030. The overall study results indicate that drought can be properly assessed by integration of different data sources and therefore management plans can be developed to address the risk and signing new treaties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]