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Adaptive responses to climate change, based on heritable variation in stress tolerance, may be important for plant population persistence. It is unclear which populations will mount the strongest future adaptive responses. It may be fruitful to identify populations that have escaped trade-offs among performance traits, which can hinder adaptation. Barring strong genetic constraints, the extent of trade-offs may depend on spatial relationships among climate variables shaping different traits. Here, we test for climate-driven ecotypic variation and trade-offs among drought and freezing sensitivity, and growth, for Lemmon's willow (Salix lemmonii) in a common garden study of 90 genotypes from 38 sites in the Sierra Nevada, USA. Salix lemmonii exhibits ecotypic variation in leaf turgor loss point, a measure of drought sensitivity, from -0.95 to -0.74 MPa along a gradient of spring snowpack. We also find variation in spring freezing sensitivity with minimum May temperature. However, we find no trade-off, as the climatic gradients shaping these traits are spatially uncorrelated in our study region, despite being negatively correlated across the Sierra Nevada. Species may escape adaptive trade-offs in geographic regions where climate variables are spatially decoupled. These regions may represent valuable reservoirs of heritable adaptive phenotypic variation., (© 2024 The Author(s). New Phytologist © 2024 New Phytologist Foundation.)

Aim: As climate change increases the frequency and severity of droughts in many regions, conservation during drought is becoming a major challenge for ecologists. Droughts are multidimensional climate events whose impacts may be moderated by changes in temperature, water availability or food availability, or some combination of these. Simultaneously, other stressors such as extensive anthropogenic landscape modification may synergize with drought. Useful observational models for guiding conservation decision‐making during drought require multidimensional, dynamic representations to disentangle possible drought impacts, and consequently, they will require large, highly resolved data sets. In this paper, we develop a two‐stage predictive framework for assessing how drought impacts vary with species, habitats and climate pathways. Location: Central Valley, California, USA. Methods: We used a two‐stage counterfactual analysis combining predictive linear mixed models and N‐mixture models to characterize the multidimensional impacts of drought on 66 bird species. We analysed counts from the eBird participatory science data set between 2010 and 2019 and produced species‐ and habitat‐specific estimates of the impact of drought on relative abundance. Results: We found that while fewer than a quarter (16/66) of species experienced abundance declines during drought, nearly half of all species (27/66) changed their habitat associations during drought. Among species that shifted their habitat associations, the use of natural habitats declined during drought while use of developed habitat and perennial agricultural habitat increased. Main Conclusions: Our findings suggest that birds take advantage of agricultural and developed land with artificial irrigation and heat‐buffering microhabitat structure, such as in orchards or parks, to buffer drought impacts. A working lands approach that promotes biodiversity and mitigates stressors across a human‐induced water gradient will be critical for conserving birds during drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impacts of three different potential evapotranspiration (PET) models on drought severity and frequencies indicated by the standardized precipitation index (SPEI). The standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index is a recent approach to operational monitoring and analysis of drought severity. The standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index combines precipitation and temperature data, quantifying the severity of a drought as the difference in a timestep as the difference between precipitation and PET. The standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index thus represents the hydrological processes that drive drought events more realistically than the standardized precipitation index at the expense of additional computational complexity and increased data demands. The additional computational complexity is principally due to the need to estimate PET within each time step. The standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index was originally defined using the Thornthwaite PET model. However, numerous researchers have demonstrated the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index is sensitive to the PET model adopted. PET models requiring sparse meteorological inputs, such as the Thornthwaite model, have particular utility for drought monitoring in data scarce environments. The aridity index (AI) investigates the spatiotemporal changes in the hydroclimatic system. It is defined as the ratio between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. It is used to characterize wet (humid) and dry (arid) regions. In this study, a sensitivity analysis for the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration and aridity indexes was carried out using three different PET models; namely, the Penman–Monteith model, a temperature-based parametric model and the Thornthwaite model. The analysis was undertaken in six gauge stations in California region where long-term drought events have occurred. Having used the Penman–Monteith model as the PET model for estimating the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index, our findings highlight the presence of uncertainty in defining the severity of drought, especially for large timescales (12 months to 48 months), and that the PET parametric model is a preferable model to the Thornthwaite model for both the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index and the aridity indexes. The latter outcome is worth further consideration for when climatic studies are under development in data scarce areas where full required meteorological variables for Penman–Monteith assessment are not available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While California has ideal weather for many activities, beaches, and mountains, the water shortage in the state has caused challenges for its growing population. The state has implemented some water saving measures but must do more to meet its needs as its population continues to increase. This paper explores what has been done and what might be done to seek more sources of water. Existing literature tends to examine individual options, instead of performing a broader comparison. This study uses comparative analysis to evaluate multiple approaches to mitigating the effects of drought in California, comparing cost information, technical maturity, and less easily quantified advantages and disadvantages. The study found that conservation, wastewater recycling, water transfer, and similar options have been used successfully in California in the past and should continue to be used. Because all those approaches except wastewater recycling are reaching their limits, the most feasible method to mitigate future droughts in California is increased use of wastewater recycling. However, it faces some emotional and political obstacles to its widespread use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews environmental management and the use of science in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta during California's 2012-2016 drought. The review is based on available reports and data, and guided by discussions with 27 agency staff, stake-holders, and researchers. Key management actions for the drought are discussed relative to four major drought water management priorities stated by water managers: support public health and safety, control saltwater intrusion, preserve cold water in Shasta Reservoir, and maintain minimum protections for endangered species. Despite some success in streamlining communication through interagency task forces, conflicting management mandates sometimes led to confusion about priorities and actions during the drought (i.e., water delivery, the environment, etc.). This report highlights several lessons and offers suggestions to improve management for future droughts. Recommendations include use of predrought warnings, timely drought declarations, improved transparency and useful documentation, better scientific preparation, development of a Delta drought management plan (including preparing for salinity barriers), and improved water accounting. Finally, better environmental outcomes occur when resources are applied to improving habitat and bolstering populations of native species during inter-drought periods, well before stressful conditions occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Entrenched Western water rights regimes may appear to function relatively well in wet years, but extreme drought events can expose the kinds of harsh ecological and socio-economic outcomes that the hard edges of prior appropriation inherently generate. During the 2012-2016 California drought some irrigators received little or no water at all in consecutive years while others received comparatively large allocations. This paper focuses on the role that California's water rights priority system and its administration via Central Valley Project contracts have played in generating disproportionate water allocations and impacts during the drought. The analysis is structured around two key questions: (a) in what ways does strict adherence to a priority system of water allocations produce inequitable socio-ecological outcomes during severe drought? (b) how might the system be changed to foster outcomes that are more equitable and fair, and with less costly and less serious conflicts in a non-stationary climate future marked by extreme events? Using an equity perspective, I draw from the doctrine of equitable apportionment to imagine a water rights regime that is better able to create a fairer distribution of drought impacts while meaningfully elevating the importance of future generations and increasing adaptive capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beginning in 2006, western United States was affected by a 11-year strong mega-drought. Among 17 western states, California was the most severely drought-affected during 2012–2015, when an area of stronger than moderate vegetation stress reached 70%. This drought had considerable impact on California's environment, economy and society. Currently, drought in the USA is monitored by the US Drought Monitor (USDM), which estimates drought area and intensity on a large area (nearly 1000 km2). California produces more than 90% of US's fruits, vegetables, berries and nuts, which are grown on relatively small areas (200–500 acres, or 0.5–2 km2). Since most of these crops are irrigated, it is important to estimate crop conditions on the area comparable to the size of the planted crop. This paper demonstrates how the new 500-m vegetation health (VH) technology (VH-500), developed from data collected by the SNPP/VIIRS satellite launched in 2011, monitors this mega-drought in California, distinguishing drought-affected area with and without irrigation and estimating drought start/end, intensity, duration, impacts and recovery from 2015–2016 El Niño. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multi-year droughts are ever-present and transformational features of California's Mediterranean climate and can fundamentally affect the water quality and the ecosystem responses of the San Francisco Estuary (estuary) and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta). This study assessed data collected by long-term monitoring programs over the past 46 water years (1975-2021) to evaluate how water quality in the estuary changes during multi-year droughts. Data were aggregated by region (South-Central Delta, North Delta, confluence, Suisun Bay, and Suisun Marsh) and season, then differences between multi-year drought periods, multiyear wet periods, and neutral periods were compared using generalized linear models. We found that multi-year drought periods altered multiple physical and chemical parameters in the estuary, increasing water temperature, salinity, water clarity, and nutrient levels. This trend was consistent across regions and seasons, with few exceptions. Increases in these parameters during drought periods were likely caused by reduced Delta inflows that intensified in each successive dry year because of reduced precipitation and managed estuarine inflows and outflows. Drought periods did not substantially affect tidal velocities within the estuary, which remained mostly consistent across wet and drought periods. Trends in chlorophyll concentrations during drought periods were more nuanced with higher concentrations occurring in the South-Central Delta region and during the winter and spring. Together, these results characterized drought in the estuary as warm, clear, high in nutrients, with patchy phytoplankton blooms (as indexed by chlorophyll), all of which have implications for higher trophic levels. Considering that droughts are expected to increase in frequency and intensity in California with climate change, understanding the effects of multi-year droughts on the water quality conditions of the estuary can help inform water management decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

California precipitation varies more dramatically from year to year than elsewhere in the conterminous United States. This paper analyzes the extent to which contributions of the wettest days to overall precipitation dictate the state's precipitation seasonality and frequent multiyear periods of drought (as precipitation deficit) and plenty is analyzed, historically and in projections of future climates. The wettest 5% of wet days in California contribute about a third of precipitation but about two-thirds of the variance of water-year precipitation. Yearto- year fluctuations in precipitation strongly reflect year-to-year fluctuations of contributions from the largest storms, with the large-storm contributions explaining about twice as much precipitation fluctuation as do contributions from all remaining storms combined. This extreme dominance of large storms is largely unique to California within the United States. In climate-change projections, eight of ten climate models considered here yield increases in precipitation from the largest storms, and when the increases are large, total precipitation follows suit. All of the models project declines in contributions from the smaller storms and models projecting totalprecipitation declines reflect this decline. Projected changes in variance of water-year precipitation reflect changes in variance of large-storm contributions. The disproportionately large overall contributions from California's largest storms, and their outsized year-to-year variability, ensure that the state's largest storms dictate the state's regimes of wet and dry spells, historically and in climate-change projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale climatic indices have been used as predictors of precipitation totals and extremes in many studies and are used operationally in weather forecasts to circumvent the difficulty in obtaining robust dynamical simulations of precipitation. The authors show that the sea level pressure North Pacific high (NPH) wintertime anomaly, a component of the Northern Oscillation index (NOI), provides a superior covariate of interannual precipitation variability in Northern California, including seasonal precipitation totals, drought, and extreme precipitation intensity, compared to traditional ENSO indices such as the Southern Oscillation index (SOI), the multivariate ENSO index (MEI), Niño-3.4, and others. Furthermore, the authors show that the NPH anomaly more closely reflects the influence of Pacific basin conditions over California in general, over groups of stations used to characterize statewide precipitation in the Sierra Nevada range, and over the southern San Francisco Bay region (NASA Ames Research Center). This paper uses the term prediction to refer to the estimation of precipitation (the predictand) from a climate covariate (the predictor), such as a climate index, or atmospheric moisture. In this sense, predictor and predictand are simultaneous in time. Statistical models employed show the effectiveness of the NPH winter anomaly as a predictor of total winter precipitation and daily precipitation extremes at the Moffett Field station. NPH projected by global climate models is also used in conjunction with atmospheric humidity [atmospheric specific humidity (HUS) at the 850-hPa level] to obtain projections of mean and extreme precipitation. The authors show that future development of accurate forecasts of NPH anomalies issued several months in advance is important for forecasting total winter precipitation and is expected to directly benefit water resource management in California. Therefore, the authors suggest that investigating the lead-time predictability of NPH anomalies is an important direction for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Through their rooting profiles and water demands, plants affect the distribution of water in the soil profile. Simultaneously, soil water content controls plant development and interactions within and between plant communities. These plant-soil water feedbacks might vary across plant communities with different rooting depths and species composition. In semiarid environments, understanding these differences will be essential to predict how ecosystems will respond to drought, which may become more frequent and severe with climate change. In this study, we tested how plant-soil water feedbacks responded to drought in two contrasting ecosystem types—grassland and shrubland—in the coastal foothills of southern California. During years 5–8 of an ongoing precipitation manipulation experiment, we measured changes in plant communities and soil moisture up to 2 m depth. We observed different water use patterns in grassland and shrubland communities with distinct plant functional types and water use strategies. Drought treatment did not affect perennial, deep-rooted shrubs because they could access deep soil water pools. However, mid-rooted shrubs were sensitive to drought and experienced decreased productivity and die-off. As a result, water content actually increased with drought at soil depths from 50–150 cm. In grassland, biomass production by annual species, including annual grasses and forbs, declined with drought, resulting in lower water uptake from the surface soil layer. An opportunistic "live fast, die young" life strategy allowed these species to recover quickly once water availability increased. Our results show how drought interacts with plant community composition to affect the soil water balance of semiarid ecosystems, information that could be integrated into global scale models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme droughts are a major determinant of ecosystem disturbance that impacts plant communities and feeds back into climate change through changes in plant functioning. However, the complex relationships between aboveground and belowground plant hydraulic traits and their role in governing plant responses to drought are not fully understood. In this study, we use a model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator in a configuration that includes plant hydraulics (FATES-Hydro), to investigate ecosystem responses to the 2012–2015 California drought in comparison with observations at a site in the southern Sierra Nevada that experienced widespread tree mortality during this drought. We conduct a sensitivity analysis to explore how different plant water sourcing and hydraulic strategies lead to differential responses during normal and drought conditions. The analysis shows the following. Deep roots that sustain productivity through the dry season are needed for the model to capture observed seasonal cycles of evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP) in normal years, and deep-rooted strategies are nonetheless subject to large reductions in ET and GPP when the deep soil reservoir is depleted during extreme droughts, in agreement with observations. Risky stomatal strategies lead to greater productivity during normal years as compared to safer stomatal control, but they also lead to a high risk of xylem embolism during the 2012–2015 drought. For a given stand density, stomatal and xylem traits have a stronger impact on plant water status than on ecosystem-level fluxes. Our study highlights the significance of resolving plant water sourcing strategies to represent drought impacts on plants and consequent feedbacks in models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To aid California's water sector to better understand and manage future climate extremes, we present a method for creating a regionally consistent ensemble of plausible daily future climate and streamflow scenarios that represent natural climate variability captured in a network of tree‐ring chronologies, and then embed anthropogenic climate change trends within those scenarios. We use 600 years of paleo‐reconstructed weather regimes to force a stochastic weather generator, which we develop for five subbasins in the San Joaquin Valley of California. To assess the compound effects of climate change, we create temperature series that reflect projected scenarios of warming and precipitation series that have been scaled to reflect thermodynamically driven shifts in the distribution of daily precipitation. We then use these weather scenarios to force hydrologic models for each of the five subbasins. The paleo‐forced streamflow scenarios highlight periods in the region's past that produce flood and drought extremes that surpass those in the modern record and exhibit large non‐stationarity through the reconstruction. Variance decomposition is employed to characterize the contribution of natural variability and climate change to variability in decision‐relevant metrics related to floods and drought. Our results show that a large portion of variability in individual subbasin and spatially compounding extreme events can be attributed to natural variability, but that anthropogenic climate changes become more influential at longer planning horizons. The joint importance of climate change and natural variability in shaping extreme floods and droughts is critical to resilient water systems planning and management in the San Joaquin. Plain Language Summary: California experiences cycles of floods and droughts that can be driven by both natural variability and climate change. The specific role these drivers play in impacting extremes is uncertain, but can influence how to best plan and manage regional water systems for future extremes. To better quantify the role of these drivers, we introduce a framework that utilizes a 600‐year tree‐ring reconstruction to create long sequences of plausible future weather and streamflow for key basins in the San Joaquin Valley. We find that a large portion of variability in extremes can be attributed to natural variability at shorter planning horizons, but that human‐driven climate changes are influential at longer planning horizons (>30 years). Furthermore, decision‐makers' perceptions of important drivers can be skewed depending on the specific definitions used to analyze floods and droughts, which can present significant challenges for adaptation planning and infrastructure development tied to tracking hydroclimate variables. This study also illustrates the vast variability in extremes that the region has experienced over the past 600 years and highlights the pitfalls of defining risk based on a limited historical record. Key Points: We introduce a framework to create 600‐year ensembles of future weather and streamflow for basins in the San Joaquin ValleyWe discover vast variability and non‐stationarity in flood and drought extremes in the region over the past 600 yearsThe joint importance of climate change and natural variability in shaping floods and droughts is critical to water systems planning [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nevada and eastern California are home to some of the driest and warmest climates, most mountainous regions, and fastest growing metropolitan areas of the United States. Throughout Nevada and eastern California, snow-dominated watersheds provide most of the water supply for both human and environmental demands. Increasing demands on finite water supplies have resulted in the need to better monitor drought and its associated hydrologic and agricultural impacts. Two multiscalar drought indices, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), are evaluated over Nevada and eastern California regions of the Great Basin using standardized streamflow, lake, and reservoir water surface stages to quantify wet and dry periods. Results show that both metrics are significantly correlated to surface water availability, with SPEI showing slightly higher correlations over SPI, suggesting that the inclusion of a simple term for atmospheric demand in SPEI is useful for characterizing hydrologic drought in arid regions. These results also highlight the utility of multiscalar drought indices as a proxy for summer groundwater discharge and baseflow periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme drought events during post-fire regeneration are becoming increasingly frequent in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Understanding how plants with different traits and origins respond to such conditions during early life stages is therefore critical for assessing the effect of climate change. Here, seedlings of three Cistus (semi-deciduous malacophylls from the Mediterranean Basin) and three Ceanothus (evergreen sclerophylls from California) species, two post-fire seeder genera with contrasting leaf traits, were subjected to complete water deprivation for 3 months in a common garden experiment. The leaf and plant structure and plant tissue water relations were characterized before the drought, and the functional responses (water availability, gas exchange and fluorescence) were monitored during the drought. Both genera exhibited contrasting leaf structure and tissue water relations traits, with higher leaf area and specific leaf area as well as higher osmotic potential at maximum turgor and turgor loss point in Cistus than Ceanothus. During drought, Ceanothus showed a more conservative use of water than Cistus , with a water potential less sensitive to decreasing soil moisture and a strong decline in photosynthesis and stomatal conductance in response to water deficit, but also a level of fluorescence more responsive to drought than Cistus. However, we could not find a different degree of drought resistance between the genera. This was particularly clear between Cistus ladanifer L. and Ceanothus pauciflorus DC. the two most functionally contrasting species, but at the same time, the two most drought-resistant. Our findings demonstrate that species with different leaf traits and functional responses to water stress may not differ in their degree of drought resistance, at least during the seedling stage. This underlines the need to take general categorizations by genus or functional types with caution and to deepen our knowledge about the Mediterranean-type species ecophysiology, especially during early life stages, in order to anticipate their vulnerability to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the use of fixed effects and maximum likelihood techniques to estimate household responses to water price increases during the California drought. Estimates are bused on bimonthly meter readings from 599 single-family households in the Alameda County Water District over the period 1982-1992, before and after the introduction of a steeply increasing block rate price structure. I find that household and monthly fixed effects models are not successful in modeling water demand with these data. However, maximum likelihood models that explicitly consider the household's response to the rate structure result in plausible estimates of water demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ongoing climatic changes have altered growing conditions for plants by limiting water availability and inducing unprecedented temperature increases, eliciting plant functional responses that compromise floral trait expression, reduce pollen production and promote early self‐pollination. In a controlled greenhouse study, plants of Collinsia heterophylla, an annual mixed‐mated hermaphrodite, were grown under temperature and water stresses. Floral trait responses and related effects on plant reproductive success were recorded. Plants grown under temperature and water stresses were shorter and had fewer leaves at flowering than control plants. Temperature‐stressed plants flowered earlier and had smaller flowers that produced fewer per capita pollen grains than control and water‐stressed plants. While lifetime flower production in plants experiencing temperature stress alone or water stress alone was similar to control plants, those receiving combined temperature and water stresses had significantly lower lifetime flower production. Abiotic stress did not affect investment in female traits such as ovule number per flower, but impacted male traits seen as fewer pollen grains per flower. In plants experiencing abiotic stress, an increase in autonomous self‐pollination was facilitated through a compromise in herkogamy, a sexual interference mechanism that promotes cross‐pollination. Spatial separation between stigma and anther, a measure of herkogamy was zero or negative in stressed plants. Thus, abiotic stress responses in plants did not compromise plant reproductive success as autonomous selfing was augmented. In nature, such responses will likely reduce available nutrition for pollinators through decreased flower and pollen production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns under climate change scenarios are accelerating the depletion of soil moisture and increasing the risk of drought, disrupting the conditions that many plant species need to survive. This study aims to establish the bioclimatic characterisation, both qualitative and quantitative, of ten native Californian Pinales for the period 1980–2019, and to determine their habitat suitability by 2050. To achieve this, an exhaustive search of the Gbif database for records of ten conifer taxa was carried out. To conduct the bioclimatic characterisation of the studied taxa, we worked with the monthly values of average temperature and precipitation for the period 1980–2019 from 177 meteorological stations. Linear regressions was performed in order to compile the future evolution of California's climate. Suitable areas and optimal areas were defined at the present time (1980–2019) and its future projection (2050). We applied Boolean logic and, in this investigation, the Conditional Logic Operator (CON) was used to determine the possible species presence (one) or absence (zero) for each of the 15 variables analysed. In general, most of the conifers studied here will experience a reduction in their habitat range in California by the year 2050 due to climate change, as well as the displacement of species towards optimal areas. Furthermore, the results have highlighted the applicability of bioclimatology to future conditions under climate change. This will aid conservation managers in implementing strategic measures to ameliorate the detrimental impacts of climate change, thereby ensuring the ecological integrity and sustainability of the affected conifer species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) has experienced rapid population declines and is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in the United States. Whitebark pine in the Sierra Nevada of California represents the southernmost end of the species' distribution and, like other portions of its range, faces threats from an introduced pathogen, native bark beetles, and a rapidly warming climate. Beyond these chronic stressors, there is also concern about how this species will respond to acute stressors, such as drought. We present patterns of stem growth from 766 large (average diameter at breast height >25 cm), disease‐free whitebark pine across the Sierra Nevada before and during a recent period of drought. We contextualize growth patterns using population genomic diversity and structure from a subset of 327 trees. Sampled whitebark pine generally had positive to neutral stem growth trends from 1970 to 2011, which was positively correlated with minimum temperature and precipitation. Indices of stem growth during drought years (2012 to 2015) relative to a predrought interval were mostly positive to neutral at our sampled sites. Individual tree growth response phenotypes appeared to be linked to genotypic variation in climate‐associated loci, suggesting that some genotypes can take better advantage of local climatic conditions than others. We speculate that reduced snowpack during the 2012 to 2015 drought years may have lengthened the growing season while retaining sufficient moisture to maintain growth at most study sites. Growth responses may differ under future warming, however, particularly if drought severity increases and modifies interactions with pests and pathogens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Groundwater provides nearly half of irrigation water supply, and it enables resilience during drought, but in many regions of the world, it remains poorly, if at all managed. In heavily agricultural regions like California's Central Valley, where groundwater management is being slowly implemented over a 27-year period that began in 2015, groundwater provides two–thirds or more of irrigation water during drought, which has led to falling water tables, drying wells, subsiding land, and its long-term disappearance. Here we use nearly two decades of observations from NASA's GRACE satellite missions and show that the rate of groundwater depletion in the Central Valley has been accelerating since 2003 (1.86 km3/yr, 1961–2021; 2.41 km3/yr, 2003–2021; 8.58 km3/yr, 2019–2021), a period of megadrought in southwestern North America. Results suggest the need for expedited implementation of groundwater management in the Central Valley to ensure its availability during the increasingly intense droughts of the future. Liu et al. used the NASA GRACE/FO missions to show that since 2019, groundwater depletion in California's Central Valley has accelerated by 31% compared to recent droughts, and has increased by a nearly a factor of 5 compared to the 60-year average. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Programs that incentivize private landowners to create habitats that offset losses due to conversion and climate change are increasingly being used to bolster sensitive wildlife populations. In the Central Valley of California, shorebird habitat incentive programs pay landowners to create additional habitat during the non‐breeding season by flooding their fields. However, it remains unclear how successful these programs have been in supporting baseline shorebird population needs or meeting established population goals, particularly in the face of changing environmental conditions. To address these questions, we used bioenergetics modeling to estimate shorebird food energy needs over four consecutive years that had the highest annual mean air temperatures ever recorded in California, and included years of extreme drought, as well as the second wettest winter on record. Our objectives were to (1) characterize annual variability in the timing and magnitude of shorebird food energy shortfalls, (2) estimate the contributions that incentive programs made to meeting these needs, and (3) develop recommendations for implementation of future habitat programs to advance shorebird conservation in the region. Overall, we found a high level of consistency in the timing and magnitude of habitat shortfalls, especially in fall, despite large differences in annual rainfall, a result that was unexpected, but that emphasizes how highly managed the hydrological system is in the Central Valley. We also found that the magnitude of both fall and spring energy shortfalls increased, relative to recent (2007–2014) estimates, perhaps due to aberrantly warm conditions. Incentive programs implemented to provide supplemental habitat were somewhat effective in reducing shortfalls for the assumed baseline population, but there were consistent unmet habitat needs when there were not enough shallow open water foraging areas available. Strategies to offset these remaining food energy deficits include scaling up habitat investments, adjusting the timing of habitat programs to better match the migration patterns of the birds, and adapting programs to new geographies. To the extent that there is variability in annual habitat need we recommend implementing a dynamic conservation approach. This involves scaling the amount of additional habitat created to match the shifting needs of the birds to maximize return on investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the impact of protracted drought on the structural integrity of earthen levees in California. Topics discussed include the geotechnical engineering perspective regarding the prolonged drought on levees in the Central Valley and Delta region, the resilience of levees, and urban flood control.

• Droughts are periodic natural hazards caused by below-average precipitation in a region. • Drought events have created severe impacts on natural resources and economic and social activities. • Intense droughts in Spain, MDB, and California have acted as catalysts of policy change. • Recent droughts have forced the change from supply-side to more sophisticated and long-term water-conservation measures. • Spain, MDB, and California have incorporated droughts as structural elements in their water planning and management. Droughts are natural hazards characterized by a prolonged period of below-average precipitation. Water scarcity is defined as insufficient water resources to meet demands in a region. This paper examines three regions (Spain, California, and the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia) which share similar social and climatic characteristics and face severe water-scarcity problems. The frequency and persistence of droughts in these regions over the last few decades have triggered changes in water laws as well as in the behaviour of water users and managers. This paper compares the major water reforms in these regions and the achievements and failures of the various approaches implemented. This comparison shows how, despite the differences in institutions and governance regarding water allocation in the three regions, recent droughts have catalysed the creation of institutions and the implementation of sophisticated long-term measures to mitigate the impact of future droughts. A deeper understanding of the effectiveness of mechanisms and regulations is necessary to better manage droughts since the uncertain impacts of climate change will require responses of a more effective nature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought contributed to extensive dieback of southern California chaparral, and normalized difference vegetation index before drought and near the end of the drought was used to estimate this dieback, after accounting for other disturbances recorded in aerial photographs. Within the perimeters of two megafires that occurred after the drought, the 2017 Thomas Fire and the 2018 Woolsey Fire, there had been extensive areas of dieback. Comparing dieback with Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity measures of fire severity, there was a highly significant negative relationship between drought‐caused shrub dieback and fire‐caused dieback as measured by fire severity. We interpret this as further support for our remote sensing methodology for prefire dieback. Models of fire behavior suggest that one means by which dieback contributes to fire size is through increasing the density and distance of spot fires, particularly under extreme wind conditions. Lower elevation chaparral associations appear to be most vulnerable and are closer to urban environments, which should be a concern to fire managers in regions subjected to extended droughts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is expected to enhance drought extremes in the United States throughout the twenty-first century. Projecting these changes can be complex in regions with large variability in atmospheric and soil moisture on small spatial scales. Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) is a valuable measure of evaporative demand as moisture moves from the surface into the atmosphere and a dynamic measure of drought. Here, VPD is used to identify short-term drought with the Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI); and used to characterize future extreme droughts using grid dependent stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) models, and a random sampling technique is developed to quantify multimodel uncertainties. The GEV analysis was performed with projections using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, downscaled from three Global Climate Models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for present, mid-century and late-century. Results show the VPD based index (SVDI) accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts, and extreme VPD is increasing across the United States and by the end of the twenty-first century. The number of days VPD is above 9 kPa increases by 10 days along California's coastline, 30–40 days in the northwest and Midwest, and 100 days in California's Central Valley. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has been shown to be a powerful proxy for photosynthesis and a promising indicator of drought monitoring, but the ability of high-resolution satellite-derived SIF for drought monitoring has not been widely investigated due to a lack of data. The lack of high spatiotemporal resolution satellite SIF hinders the resolution enhancement of SIF derived by downscaling or reconstruction algorithms. The TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) SIF provides an alternative with finer spatiotemporal resolution. We present an operational downscaling method to generate 500 m 16-day SIF (TSIF) using Neural Networks over a local spatiotemporal window. The results showed that our method is very robust against overfitting, and TSIF has a strong spatiotemporal consistency with TROPOMI SIF (TROPOSIF) with R 2 = 0.956 and RMSE = 0.054   mWm − 2 sr − 1 nm − 1 . Comparison with another SIF product (CASIF) showed a spatiotemporal consistency with TSIF. Comparison with tower gross primary productivity (GPP) from AmeriFlux in California showed a strong correlation with R 2 for multiple ecosystems ranging from 0.58 to 0.88. We explored the capacity of TSIF for monitoring a drought event in Henan, China, showing that TSIF is more sensitive to drought and precipitation compared to the Enhanced Vegetation Index. Our TSIF is a very promising indicator for regional drought monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding reproductive biology and performance of fish is essential to formulate effective conservation and management programs. Here, we studied reproductive strategies of female Delta Smelt Hypomesus transpacificus, an endangered fish species in the State of California, the United States, focusing on (1) better understanding their distribution pattern during the winter and spring spawning season at very fine scale to predict their possible spawning grounds and (2) assessing impacts of a recent, severe drought on their reproductive performance. We formulated our hypotheses as follows; (1) female Delta Smelt migrate to particular locations for spawning so that mature females can be frequently found in those locations throughout the spawning season and (2) reproductive performance of individual female fish declined during the drought. To test the first hypotheses, we analyzed relationships between water quality parameters and maturity/distribution pattern of Delta Smelt. Salinity better explained the distribution pattern of Delta Smelt at subadult and adult stages compared with water temperature or turbidity. Although there are some freshwater locations where mature Delta Smelt can frequently be found during the spawning season, Delta Smelt at the final maturation stage (Stage 5: hydration) and post spawners appeared to be widespread in the area where salinity was below 1.0 during the spawning season. Therefore, Delta Smelt could theoretically spawn in any freshwater locations, with more specific spawning requirements in the wild (e.g., substrate type and depth) still unknown. Delta Smelt, which experienced dry and critically dry conditions (the 2013 and 2014 year-classes), showed smaller oocytes, and lower clutch size and gonadosomatic index compared with the fish caught in a wet year (2011 year-class) at the late vitellogenic stage (Stage 4 Late), suggesting reproductive performance was negatively affected by environmental conditions during the drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An inconsistent relationship between precipitation and runoff has been observed between drought and non-drought periods, with less runoff usually observed during droughts than would be expected based solely on precipitation deficit. Predictability of these shifts in the precipitation–runoff relationship is still challenging, largely because the underlying hydrologic mechanisms are poorly constrained. Using 30 years of data for 14 basins in California, we show how the Budyko framework can be leveraged to decompose shifts in precipitation versus runoff during droughts into "regime" shifts, which result from changes in the aridity index along the same Budyko curve, and "partitioning shifts", which imply a change in the Budyko parameter ω and thus in the relationship among water balance components that governs partitioning of available water. Regime shifts are primarily due to measurable interannual changes in precipitation or temperature, making them predictable based on drought conditions. Partitioning shifts involve further nonlinear and indirect catchment feedbacks to drought conditions and are thus harder to predict a priori. We show that regime shifts dominate changes in absolute runoff during droughts but that gains or losses due to partitioning shifts are still significant. Low aridity, high baseflow, a shift from snow to rain, and resilience of high-elevation runoff correlate with higher annual runoff during droughts than would be predicted by the precipitation–runoff ratio during non-drought years. Differentiating between these shifts in the precipitation–runoff relationship using a Budyko approach will help water resource managers, particularly in arid, drought-prone regions, to better project runoff magnitudes during droughts based on available climate data and, furthermore, understand under what circumstances and to what extent their forecasts may be less reliable due to nonlinear basin–climate feedbacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme drought and increasing temperatures can decrease the resilience of plant communities to fires. Not only may extremely dry conditions during or after fires lead to higher plant mortality and poorer recruitment, but severe pre‐fire droughts may reduce the seed production and belowground vigor that are essential to post‐fire plant recovery, and may indirectly facilitate invasion. We studied survival, recruitment, and growth of shrubs and herbs in chaparral (shrubland) communities in Northern California after a 2015 fire that immediately followed California's extreme 3‐yr drought. We followed the same protocols used to study similar, adjacent communities after a 1999 fire that did not follow a drought, and we compared the two recovery trajectories. Overall, the 2015 fire was not more severe than the 1999 fire, yet it caused higher mortality and lower growth of resprouting shrubs on fertile (sandstone) soils. In contrast, the 2015 fire did not affect the mortality or growth of resprouting shrubs on infertile (serpentine) soils, the density of shrub seedlings, or the richness or cover of native herbs differently than the 1999 fire. However, the 2015 fire facilitated a massive increase in exotic herbaceous cover, especially on fertile soils, possibly portending the early stages of a type conversion to exotic‐dominated grassland. Our findings indicate that the consequences of climate change on fire‐dependent communities will include effects of pre‐fire as well as post‐fire climate, and that resprouting shrubs are particularly likely to be sensitive to pre‐fire drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nuanced public responses to droughts and other chronic environmental crises reflect today's increasingly complex communication ecosystem. At once global and infinitely customizable, this vast array of media and information channels requires existing theory to address the implications of interactions among social media, "traditional" mass media outlets, and information-seeking tools such as search engines. How do these channels intervene in public conversation? What might the agenda-setting perspective have to say? Data collected during peak years of the California drought, 2013–2015, indicate that California residents responded to worsening drought conditions Twitter first, which was the only media behavior directly stimulated by environmental stressors. Google searches stimulated newspaper coverage and Twitter activity, revealing the centrality of search behaviors in this environmental crisis. The findings suggest significant changes to the communication landscape as individual and collective users become increasingly dependent on non-mainstream media channels for information in chronic crisis situations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought‐induced pumpage has precipitated dramatic groundwater‐level declines in California's Central Valley over the past 30 yr, but the impacts of aquifer overdraft on water quality are poorly understood. This study coupled over 160,000 measurements of nitrate from ∼6,000 public‐supply wells with a 30 yr reconstruction of groundwater levels throughout the Central Valley to evaluate dynamic relations between aquifer exploitation and resource quality. We find that long‐term rates of groundwater‐level decline and water‐quality degradation in critically overdrafted basins accelerate by respective factors of 2–3 and 3–5 during drought, followed by brief reversals during wetter periods. Episodic water‐quality degradation can occur during drought where increased pumpage draws shallow, contaminated groundwater down to depth zones tapped by long‐screened production wells. These data show, for the first time, a direct linkage between climate‐mediated aquifer pumpage and groundwater quality on a regional scale. Plain Language Summary: It has been established that wells are at risk to run dry when groundwater levels decline during drought, but associated impacts to water quality are poorly understood. This study examined 30 yr of data from California's Central Valley to find dramatic groundwater‐level declines during drought were associated with worsening groundwater quality. This likely happens because increased pumping during drought can draw shallow, contaminated groundwater to depths commonly tapped by public drinking‐water wells. This is the first study of its kind to show direct linkages between drought and groundwater quality at such a broad spatial scale. Key Points: Drought‐induced pumpage has precipitated dramatic groundwater‐level declines in California's Central Valley over the past 30 yrLong‐term rates of groundwater‐level decline and water‐quality degradation in overdrafted basins accelerate by factors of 2–5 during droughtIncreased pumpage during drought can draw shallow, contaminated groundwater down to depths tapped by long‐screened production wells [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Understanding and predicting precipitation characteristics on seasonal and longer timescales can help California prepare for long‐term droughts and precipitation extremes. We find that interannual variations in total precipitation across California are primarily determined by precipitation frequency. As was shown previously for total precipitation, the precipitation frequency is linked to the North Pacific jet stream location. This indicates that California precipitation frequency is primarily controlled by where the jet guides precipitate weather systems rather than how moist or energetic the systems are. The jet's position, in turn, depends on the states of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We use this to construct a regression model that predicts variations in California's annual total precipitation and precipitation frequency. Up to 20% of the wintertime precipitation variance in Southern California is predictable using decorrelated ENSO and PDO indices in the previous summer. Plain Language Summary: This study shows that the number of rainy days, rather than the rainfall intensity, determines whether a given year is wet or dry in California. How often it rains, in turn, is related to a specific pattern of Pacific sea surface temperatures several months before the rainy season, providing modest predictability of year‐to‐year rainfall variations for Southern California. Key Points: Throughout California, the precipitation frequency determines how wet a water year isThe precipitation frequency in parts of California is determined by the East Pacific jet stream locationUp to 20% of California's annual precipitation variations are predictable given summer SST in the Pacific [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims In water-limited landscapes, some plants build structures that enable them to survive with minimal water (drought resistance). Instead of making structures that allow survival through times of water limitation, annual plants may invoke a drought escape strategy where they complete growth and reproduction when water is available. Drought escape and resistance each require a unique combination of traits and therefore plants are likely to have a suite of trait values that are consistent with a single drought response strategy. In environments where conditions are variable, plants may additionally evolve phenotypically plastic trait responses to water availability. Invasive annual species commonly occur in arid and semi-arid environments and many will be subject to reduced water availability associated with climate change. Assessing intraspecific trait variation across environmental gradients is a valuable tool for understanding how invasive plants establish and persist in arid environments. Methods In this study, we used a common garden experiment with two levels of water availability to determine how traits related to carbon assimilation, water use, biomass allocation and flowering phenology vary in California wild radish populations across an aridity gradient. Key Results We found that populations from arid environments have rapid flowering and increased allocation to root biomass, traits associated with both drought escape and tolerance. Early flowering was associated with higher leaf nitrogen concentration and lower leaf mass per area, traits associated with high resource acquisition. While trait values varied across low- and high-water treatments, these shifts were consistent across populations, indicating no differential plasticity across the aridity gradient. Conclusions While previous studies have suggested that drought escape and drought resistance are mutually exclusive drought response strategies, our findings suggest that invasive annuals may employ both strategies to succeed in novel semi-arid environments. As many regions are expected to become more arid in the future, investigations of intraspecific trait variation within low water environments help to inform our understanding of potential evolutionary responses to increased aridity in invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Premise: Whether drought‐adaptation mechanisms tend to evolve together, evolve independently, or evolve constrained by genetic architecture is incompletely resolved, particularly for water‐relations traits besides gas exchange. We addressed this issue in two subspecies of Clarkia xantiana (Onagraceae), California winter annuals that separated approximately 65,000 years ago and are adapted, partly by differences in flowering time, to native ranges differing in precipitation. Methods: In these subspecies and in recombinant inbred lines (RILs) from a cross between them, we scored traits related to drought adaptation (timing of seed germination and of flowering, succulence, pressure–volume curve variables) in common environments. Results: The subspecies native to more arid environments (parviflora) exhibited slower seed germination in saturated conditions, earlier flowering, and greater succulence, likely indicating superior drought avoidance, drought escape, and dehydration resistance via water storage. The other subspecies (xantiana) had lower osmotic potential at full turgor and lower water potential at turgor loss, implying superior dehydration tolerance. Genetic correlations among RILs suggest facilitated evolution of some trait combinations and independence of others. Where genetic correlations exist, subspecies differences fell along them, with the exception of differences in succulence and turgor loss point. In that case, subspecies difference overcame genetic correlations, possibly reflecting strong selection and/or antagonistic genetic correlations with other traits. Conclusions: Clarkia xantiana subspecies' differ in multiple mechanisms of drought adaptation. Genetic architecture generally does not seem to have constrained the evolution of these mechanisms, and it may have facilitated the evolution of some of trait combinations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PREMISE: Due to climate change, more frequent and intense periodic droughts are predicted to increasingly pose major challenges to the persistence of plant populations. When a severe drought occurs over a broad geographical region, independent responses by individual populations provide replicated natural experiments for examining the evolution of drought resistance and the potential for evolutionary rescue. METHODS: We used a resurrection approach to examine trait evolution in populations of the common monkeyflower, Mimulus guttatus, exposed to a record drought in California from 2011 to 2017. Specifically, we compared variation in traits related to drought escape and avoidance from seeds collected from 37 populations pre‐ and post‐drought in a common garden. In a parallel experiment, we evaluated fitness in two populations, one which thrived and one which was nearly extirpated during the drought, under well‐watered and dry‐down conditions. RESULTS: We observed substantial variation among populations in trait evolution. In the subset of populations where phenotypes changed significantly, divergence proceeded along trait correlations with some populations flowering rapidly with less vegetative tissue accumulation and others delaying flowering with greater vegetative tissue accumulation. The degree of trait evolution was only weakly correlated with drought intensity but strongly correlated with initial levels of standing variation. Fitness was higher in the post‐drought than pre‐drought accessions in both treatments for the thriving population, but lower in both treatments for the nearly extirpated population. CONCLUSIONS: Together, our results indicate that evolutionary responses to drought are context dependent and reflect the standing genetic variation and genetic correlations present within populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PREMISE: The xylem tissue of plants performs three principal functions: transport of water, support of the plant body, and nutrient storage. Tradeoffs may arise because different structural requirements are associated with different functions or because suites of traits are under selection that relate to resource acquisition, use, and turnover. The structural and functional basis of xylem storage is not well established. We hypothesized that greater starch storage would be associated with greater sapwood parenchyma and reduced fibers, which would compromise resistance to xylem tensions during dehydration. METHODS: We measured cavitation resistance, minimum water potential, starch content, and sapwood parenchyma and fiber area in 30 species of southern California chaparral shrubs (evergreen and deciduous). RESULTS: We found that species storing greater starch within their xylem tended to avoid dehydration and were less cavitation resistant, and this was supported by phylogenetic independent contrasts. Greater sapwood starch was associated with greater parenchyma area and reduced fiber area. For species without living fibers, the associations with parenchyma were stronger, suggesting that living fibers may expand starch storage capacity while also contributing to the support function of the vascular tissue. Drought‐deciduous species were associated with greater dehydration avoidance than evergreens. CONCLUSIONS: Evolutionary forces have led to an association between starch storage and dehydration resistance as part of an adaptive suite of traits. We found evidence for a tradeoff between tissue mechanical traits and starch storage; moreover, the evolution of novel strategies, such as starch‐storing living fibers, may mitigate the strength of this tradeoff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is amplifying the frequency and severity of droughts and wildfires in many forests. In the western United States, fuel reduction treatments, both mechanical and prescribed fire, are widely used to increase resilience to wildfire but their effect on resistance to drought and beetle mortality is not as well understood. We followed more than 10,000 mapped and tagged trees in a mixed‐conifer forest following mechanical thinning and/or prescribed burning treatments in 2001 through the extreme 2012–2016 drought in California. Mortality varied by tree species from 3% of incense‐cedar to 38% of red fir with proportionally higher mortality rates in the larger size classes for sugar pine, red fir, and white fir. Treatment reductions in stem density were associated with increased diameter growth and rapidly growing trees had lower rates of mortality. However, the ultimate effects of treatment on drought‐related mortality varied greatly by treatment type. All species had neutral to reduced mortality rates following mechanical thinning alone, but treatments that included prescribed burning increased beetle infestation rates and increased mortality of red fir and sugar pine. Fuel reduction treatments appear to benefit some species such as Jeffrey pine, but can reduce resistance to extreme drought and beetle outbreaks in other species when treatments include prescribed burning. In a non‐analog future, fuel reduction treatments may require modification to provide resistance to beetle infestation and severe droughts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent high impact wildfires and droughts in California and Nevada have been linked to extremes in the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), respectively. Both indices are dependent on reference evapotranspiration (ET0). Future changes in ET0 for California and Nevada are examined, calculated from global climate model simulations downscaled by Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA). ET0 increases of 13–18% at seasonal timescales are projected by late century (2070–2099), with greatest relative increases in winter and spring. Seasonal ET0 increases are most strongly driven by warmer temperatures, with increasing specific humidity having a smaller, but noteworthy, counter tendency. Extreme (95th percentile) EDDI values on the 2‐week timescale have coincided with recent large wildfires in the area. Two‐week EDDI extremes are projected to increase by 6–10 times during summer and 4–6 times during autumn by the end of the century. On multiyear timescales, the occurrence of extreme droughts based on 3‐year SPEI below the historical fifth percentile, similar to that experienced during the 2012–2016 drought across the region, is projected to increase 3–15 times by late century. Positive trends in extreme multiyear droughts will further increase seasonal fire potential through degraded forests and increased fuel loads and flammability. Understanding how these drought metrics change on various climate timescales at the local level can provide fundamental information to support the development of long‐term adaptation strategies for wildland fire and water resource management. Plain Language Summary: Since the start of the 21st century, California and Nevada have observed extreme wildland fires and droughts that have caused devastating impacts to ecosystems and society. A common feature of these events has been very high atmospheric evaporative demand—the "thirst" of the atmosphere—which has largely been driven by increased air temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change. This study examines projected changes in evaporative demand, which of the input variables are causing those changes and how the frequency of extreme wildfire potential and multiyear droughts will change. Evaporative demand is found to increase during all seasons, and increased temperatures drive most of that change. The likelihood of extreme wildfire potential based on 2‐week periods of elevated evaporative demand during summer and autumn increases substantially. A climatic water balance based on precipitation and evaporative demand indicates extreme 3‐year droughts that hold potential to deplete regional‐scale water supply also become much more likely. Future adaptation planning efforts for wildfire management agencies, forest management, and water resource managers should account for a greater likelihood of more extreme events. Key Points: All climate models show increasing reference evapotranspiration (ET0) through the end of the centuryIncreased air temperature has the greatest contribution to projected ET0 increasesExtreme ET0‐based wildfire potential and 3‐year droughts based on precipitation minus ET0 become much more frequent in the future [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Text mining & interviews were used to study drought's effect on infrastructure siting and review. • Extent of drought & consideration of drought impacts on infrastructure were closely correlated. • Attention to water & climate impacts on infrastructure increased, but not correlated to drought. • Slow-onset hazards may not shift institutional norms as easily as fast-onset hazards. Climate change necessitates major changes in infrastructure siting, design, and operations. Successful adaptation of infrastructure management requires overcoming thorny institutional challenges including path dependency and isomorphic pressures that inhibit major shifts in norms and practices. Hazards have been posited as a potential trigger for changing long-standing institutions because they can upend stable system states. However, research on the ability of hazards to shift norms and practices is still nascent and focuses on rapid-onset disasters like floods, hurricanes, or fires. This paper uses the 2012–2016 California drought to assess the potential for slow-onset hazards to lead to institutional change. We assess whether it yielded a shift in institutional norms, namely agency application of existing regulations toward enhanced socio-ecological resilience in the face of climate change. We focus on the environmental impact assessment process under the National Environmental Policy Act and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's process for licensing hydropower dams. Using computational text analysis of Environmental Impact Statements and participant observation of infrastructure licensing negotiations, we assess whether, over the years of the drought, agencies placed more emphasis on drought issues or climate resilience in analyzing infrastructure siting and design. In EIS documents, we observe a short-term spike in consideration of drought-related impacts and a longer-term increase in water security, suggesting some shifts in institutional practice; however, consideration of climate impacts decreased over the time period. In FERC licensing, there was no consideration of future climate impacts, despite managers' recognition that this posed a problem for projects' future operations. Although these results do not preclude the ability of slow-onset hazards to shift institutional norms, they suggest that doing so is challenging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In arid areas, irrigation water is an essential input into agricultural production. However, rainfall and, correspondingly, surface water supplies are often highly variable, creating uncertainty over the value of long‐term, water‐dependent investments in these cropping systems. Moreover, climate change is expected to increase both crop water requirements and the variability of seasonal rainfall, meaning the constraints imposed by variable water supplies are likely to grow in cost as climate change progresses. In this setting, storing water in wet years for use in dry years is valuable. In particular, it would be expected to increase the value of perennial crops, which require large up‐front investments that pay off gradually over the life of the tree. We first show, in a simple theoretical model, that given the timing of returns to investments in perennial crops, there is always some level of drought risk above which annual crops will be preferred to perennials. We then demonstrate this effect empirically using a unique institutional setting in which access to a relatively new form of water storage, groundwater banking, effectively created spatial variation in drought risk between irrigation districts in Kern County, California. Using a 22‐year dataset of individual cropping decisions, we provide evidence that access to a large groundwater banking project, the Kern Water Bank, increased the rate at which farmers switched from lower value annual crops such as wheat and alfalfa into high‐value perennial nut crops, primarily almonds and pistachio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multi-year droughts in Mediterranean climates may shift the water balance, that is, the partitioning rule of precipitation across runoff, evapotranspiration, and sub-surface storage. Mechanisms causing these shifts remain largely unknown and are not well represented in hydrologic models. Focusing on measurements from the headwaters of California's Feather River, we found that also in these mixed rain–snow Mediterranean basins a lower fraction of precipitation was partitioned to runoff during multi-year droughts compared to non-drought years. This shift in the precipitation–runoff relationship was larger in the surface-runoff-dominated than subsurface-flow-dominated headwaters (-39 % vs. -18 % decline of runoff, respectively, for a representative precipitation amount). The predictive skill of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic model in these basins decreased during droughts, with evapotranspiration (ET) being the only water-balance component besides runoff for which the drop in predictive skill during drought vs. non-drought years was statistically significant. In particular, the model underestimated the response time required by ET to adjust to interannual climate variability, which we define as climate elasticity of ET. Differences between simulated and data-driven estimates of ET were well correlated with accompanying data-driven estimates of changes in sub-surface storage (ΔS , r=0.78). This correlation points to shifts in precipitation–runoff relationships being evidence of a hysteretic response of the water budget to climate elasticity of ET during and after multi-year droughts. This hysteresis is caused by carryover storage offsetting precipitation deficit during the initial drought period, followed by vegetation mortality when storage is depleted and subsequent post-drought vegetation expansion. Our results point to a general improvement in hydrologic predictions across drought and recovery cycles by including the climate elasticity of ET and better accounting for actual subsurface water storage in not only soil, but also deeper regolith that stores water accessible to roots. This can be done by explicitly parametrizing carryover storage and feedback mechanisms capturing vegetation response to atmospheric demand for moisture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Declining water tables are causing wells to run dry in California, but the prevalence and spatial distribution of wells that have run dry are not known beyond anecdotal and voluntary reports. Here, we apply a new, simple, and measurement‐driven method to calculate a localized water table; we show, for the first time using observations, that up to one‐in‐five wells now runs dry in California's Central Valley. The spatial distribution of wells identified as having dried up replicates hot spots of wells identified as having run dry in a voluntary reporting system, while also capturing impacts on groundwater wells that have not reportedly run dry. We assess the rates of drilling throughout the Central Valley and find, surprisingly, that domestic wells are being drilled deeper at a rate that exceeds agricultural wells across much of the central Central Valley. Because new groundwater wells are costly (i.e., $10,000 to $100,000), we suggest explicitly considering dry wells in groundwater sustainability planning to protect homes and farms from the loss of access to reliable water supplies in the future. Plain Language Summary: Anecdotal evidence suggests that groundwater level declines are causing wells to run dry in California's Central Valley, threatening access to reliable water supplies. Here we show with observational data that thousands of wells ran dry at the peak of the recent drought, especially in the southeastern Central Valley. We use groundwater well construction data to show that domestic water wells ran dry in disproportionate numbers, because typical domestic wells are shallower than typical agricultural wells. The results of this work can be used as water agencies are considering current and future impacts of groundwater depletion on groundwater users. Key Points: This work presents a systematic evaluation the prevalence of dry wells throughout the entire Central ValleyDomestic wells are being drilled deeper at a rate that exceeds agricultural wells across much of the central Central ValleyThe high cost of constructing new domestic, municipal, and agricultural wells suggests that dry wells are vital to consider in planning [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme weather events such as droughts are expected to increase in severity and frequency as the climate changes; it is imperative that land managers be able to monitor associated changes in vegetation health efficiently and across large scales in order to mitigate or prepare for these events. This need motivated deeper study of the die‐off of bishop pine (Pinus muricata) on California's Santa Cruz Island during the 2012–2016 drought. These pines play a keystone role within the island's ecosystem and have experienced two severe droughts and associated mass die‐offs in the past 40 years. In an effort to compare these events, we used meteorological data to track changes in drought severity from 1985 to 2018 coupled with novel methods for forest monitoring to reveal dynamics not detectable by shorter‐duration studies. Leveraging 34 years of 30 m resolution Landsat imagery, we compared vegetation mortality between the two most severe droughts of that time period: 1987–1991 and 2012–2016. We used the slope of decline in the annual median value of three different Vegetation Indices (VIs; NBR, NDMI and NDVI) to compare mortality between the two drought events and to reveal spatial patterns of mortality within the bishop pine forests. Our results indicated that the 2012–2016 drought was the island's harshest in over a century and that it resulted in greater and more widespread mortality of vegetation within bishop pine stands than the 1987–1991 drought. The average VI decline was significantly greater during the 2012–2016 drought than the 1987–1991 drought by a factor of 1.89, 2.09 and 1.84 for NBR, NDMI and NDVI, respectively. Our results aligned with projections of increasing drought severity and associated tree mortality across the region. The temporal monitoring methods developed here can be adapted to study similar landscape scale changes over multiple decades in other forest ecosystems facing similar threats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During drought, the tree subpopulations (such as size or vigour classes) that suffer disproportionate mortality can be conceptually arrayed along a continuum defined by the actions of biotic agents, particularly insects. At one extreme, stress dominates: insects are absent or simply kill the most physiologically stressed trees. At the opposite extreme, host selection dominates: outbreaking insects kill trees independently of their stress, instead selecting trees based on size or other traits. Intermediate responses are also possible. Yet for mixed‐species forests, we lack a broad understanding of the relative importance of insects in determining exactly which subpopulations of trees suffer disproportionate mortality during drought, and whether these subpopulations differ among co‐occurring tree species.During an extreme drought, we documented the roles of native bark beetles in the mortality of five tree species in California's Sierra Nevada. We analysed the patterns and agents of tree mortality in 12 permanent plots and the patterns of mortality in 89 temporary plots.Most tree mortality was associated with bark beetles. However, the growth rates (an indicator of chronic stress) and sizes of trees that suffered greatest bark beetle‐related mortality differed sharply among tree taxa, variously conforming with domination by stress (Abies concolor), domination by host selection (Pinus lambertiana and P. ponderosa) or a mix of the two (Calocedrus decurrens). Quercus kelloggii mortality remained relatively low. Thus, even during extreme drought substantial proportions of stressed trees survived because they were of sizes that mostly avoided fatal insect attack. Conversely, substantial proportions of comparatively unstressed trees died because they were of sizes that were selectively killed by outbreaking insects.Synthesis. Native bark beetles were primarily responsible for determining which subpopulations of trees suffered greatest mortality during drought. However, idiosyncratic host‐tree selection by the different bark beetle taxa meant that the tree subpopulations suffering greatest mortality differed strikingly among tree taxa—for example, high mortality of small trees of one species, but of large trees of another. If idiosyncratic host‐tree selection by biotic mortality agents proves to be a generally common phenomenon, it could help explain weak broadscale correlations between tree traits and tree mortality during drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: In his foundational list of 'ideal weed' characteristics, Baker (1965) proposed that weedy plants maximize reproductive output under high resource availability. Since then, the idea that invasive plant species are more responsive to fluctuating resources compared with native or noninvasive species has gained considerable traction, although few studies extend this hypothesis to include reproductive output. We revisit Baker's hypothesis in the context of invasion and drought in California grasslands, exploring whether invasives show greater growth and reproductive responses to water availability compared with the native wildflowers they displace.In an outdoor potted study, we grew eight native and eight invasive species of annuals commonly found in southern California grasslands to reproductive maturity under both well‐watered and drought conditions.While drought negatively impacted plant performance overall, invasives showed more negative responses for growth and reproductive traits. Invasives also grew larger than native species, especially under well‐watered conditions, and produced seed with higher rates of germination.Invasives may be more negatively impacted by drought compared with natives, but they are also able to capitalize on high resource conditions and greatly increase reproductive output. Such opportunistic responses exhibited by invasives might explain previously observed fluctuations in their abundance under variable precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) is a method of recycling wastewater to create a potable water source. DPR is a particularly useful technology in arid, drought-prone regions, including California, because it is a self-sustaining water source. Despite being safe, efficient, and useful, potable reuse methods, including DPR, have faced intense public opposition. Such opposition has stopped several projects in California. In January 2018, California State Assembly Bill 574 (AB 574) took effect. AB 574 requires California's State Water Resources Control Board to adopt regulations for DPR by 2023, so long as the regulations are found to adequately protect public health. Once adopted, California would become the first state to have uniform regulations for DPR. But while uniform regulations will be an important step toward the realization of DPR technology, California's success in implementing DPR will ultimately depend on public acceptance of DPR as a legitimate source of water. This Comment seeks to provide California's state and local governments with strategies to garner public support for DPR projects. First, this Comment provides a framework for gaining public acceptance of DPR. Second, this Comment explains why California is well-suited to the adoption of DPR technology, and describes California's history with potable reuse. Third, this Comment illustrates the main obstacle to DPR--public opposition--through a series of case studies. Fourth and finally, this Comment applies the framework for gaining public acceptance to the case studies to illustrate a holistic approach to legitimizing DPR. "When was sewage ever classified as being pure?" asked the Revolting Grandmas, a San Diego grassroots group. The Grandmas were revolting against recycling wastewater for potable use, also known as 'potable reuse.' They feared waterborne illness, distrusted the purification technology, and were simply disgusted by the idea of drinking water that once went down someone's toilet.2 And they were not alone in their concerns. Public opposition to recycled wastewater has stopped several potable reuse projects in California. Public concerns about recycled wastewater derive, in part, from an ancient human fear of waterborne disease that has complicated mankind's relationship with water: "[t]here is no life without water. Indeed, we use its presence as an indicator for the possibility of life beyond the earth. But drinking water can kill, and always has."3 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecohydrologic fluxes within atmosphere, vegetation, and soil systems exhibit a joint variability that arises from forcing and feedback interactions. These interactions cause fluctuations to propagate between variables at many time scales. In an ecosystem, this connectivity dictates responses to climate change, landcover change, and weather events and must be characterized to understand resilience and sensitivity. We use an information theory-based approach to quantify connectivity in the form of information flow associated with the propagation of fluctuations between variables. We apply this approach to study ecosystems that experience changes in dry-season moisture availability due to rainfall and drought conditions. We use data from two transects with flux towers located along elevation gradients and quantify redundant, synergistic, and unique flow of information between lagged sources and targets to characterize joint asynchronous time dependencies. At the Reynolds Creek Critical Zone Observatory in Idaho, a dry-season rainfall pulse leads to increased connectivity from soil and atmospheric variables to heat and carbon fluxes. At the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory in California, separate sets of dominant drivers characterize two sites at which fluxes exhibit different drought responses. For both cases, our information flow-based connectivity characterizes dominant drivers and joint variability before, during, and after disturbances. This approach to gauge the responsiveness of ecosystem fluxes under multiple sources of variability furthers our understanding of complex ecohydrologic systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Particularly in light of California's recent multiyear drought, there is a critical need for accurate and timely evapotranspiration (ET) and crop stress information to ensure long-term sustainability of high-value crops. Providing this information requires the development of tools applicable across the continuum from subfield scales to improve water management within individual fields up to watershed and regional scales to assess water resources at county and state levels. High-value perennial crops (vineyards and orchards) are major water users, and growers will need better tools to improve water-use efficiency to remain economically viable and sustainable during periods of prolonged drought. To develop these tools, government, university, and industry partners are evaluating a multiscale remote sensing–based modeling system for application over vineyards. During the 2013–17 growing seasons, the Grape Remote Sensing Atmospheric Profile and Evapotranspiration eXperiment (GRAPEX) project has collected micrometeorological and biophysical data within adjacent pinot noir vineyards in the Central Valley of California. Additionally, each year ground, airborne, and satellite remote sensing data were collected during intensive observation periods (IOPs) representing different vine phenological stages. An overview of the measurements and some initial results regarding the impact of vine canopy architecture on modeling ET and plant stress are presented here. Refinements to the ET modeling system based on GRAPEX are being implemented initially at the field scale for validation and then will be integrated into the regional modeling toolkit for large area assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]