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The determination of earthquake source parameters is an important task in seismology. For many applications, it is also valuable to understand the uncertainties associated with these determinations, and this is particularly true in the context of earthquake early warning (EEW) and hazard mitigation. In this paper, we develop a framework for probabilistic moment tensor point source inversions in near real time. Our methodology allows us to find an approximation to p(m|d), the conditional probability of source models (m) given observations (d). This is obtained by smoothly interpolating a set of random prior samples, using Mixture Density Networks (MDNs)—a class of neural networks which output the parameters of a Gaussian mixture model. By combining multiple networks as ‘committees’, we are able to obtain a significant improvement in performance over that of a single MDN. Once a committee has been constructed, new observations can be inverted within milliseconds on a standard desktop computer. The method is therefore well suited for use in situations such as EEW, where inversions must be performed routinely and rapidly for a fixed station geometry. To demonstrate the method, we invert regional static GPS displacement data for the 2010 MW 7.2 El Mayor Cucapah earthquake in Baja California to obtain estimates of magnitude, centroid location and depth and focal mechanism. We investigate the extent to which we can constrain moment tensor point sources with static displacement observations under realistic conditions. Our inversion results agree well with published point source solutions for this event, once the uncertainty bounds of each are taken into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to handle large amounts of data automatically is essential for any major tomographic inversion. As part of this process, it is necessary to differentiate between high-quality seismograms, and those that are unusable due to noise or other errors. This quality assessment is traditionally made visually; however, the sheer quantity of data in a modern tomographic data set makes this approach unfeasible. It is therefore necessary to develop techniques for automating this quality assessment process. We demonstrate that a simple neural network, trained to recognize the frequency-domain characteristics of high- and low-quality data, can successfully distinguish the two classes in unseen data. We demonstrate that the resulting clean data sets are of sufficient quality to allow full-waveform determination of event focal mechanisms and hypocentral parameters. The process we outline allows the rapid creation of a high-quality data set for seismic tomography. Depending on application, this may be suitable for use without further refinement. In some circumstances, a further visual inspection may remain desirable to ensure the data set is noise-free; however, a significant benefit will still derive from the reduction in number of traces to be examined. This will enable full-waveform inversion using significantly larger data sets than has hitherto been possible. The selection strategy relies only on measurements made from the seismogram, and on rough estimates of hypocentral location—the final data set does not depend on any a priori assumptions regarding earth structure or wave propagation. Our focus has been on data selection for seismic tomography, but the approach is general and may find application across a wide range of seismic investigations. An automated system is of interest wherever large data sets must be handled, or where time is of the essence—such as in earthquake hazard assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]