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The changing population age structure has a significant influence on the economy, society, and numerous other aspects of a country. This paper has innovatively applied the method of compositional data forecasting for the prediction of population age changes of the young (aged 0–14), the middle-aged (aged 15–64), and the elderly (aged older than 65) in China, India, and Vietnam by 2030 based on data from 1960 to 2016. To select the best-suited forecasting model, an array of data transformation approaches and forecasting models have been extensively employed, and a large number of comparisons have been made between the aforementioned methods. The best-suited model for each country is identified considering the root mean squared error and mean absolute percent error values from the compositional data. As noted in this study, first and foremost, it is predicted that by the year 2030, China will witness the disappearance of population dividend and get mired in an aging problem far more severe than that of India or Vietnam. Second, Vietnam’s trend of change in population age structure resembles that of China, but the country will sustain its good health as a whole. Finally, the working population of India demonstrates a strong rising trend, indicating that the age structure of the Indian population still remains relatively “young”. Meanwhile, the continuous rise in the proportion of elderly population and the gradual leveling off growth of the young population have nevertheless become serious problems in the world. The present paper attempts to offer crucial insights into the Asian population size, labor market and urbanization, and, moreover, provides suggestions for a sustainable global demographic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decomposing the GDP growth from 1981 to 2004, this paper finds that innovation capacity has contributed significantly to the economic growth of China and India, especially in the 1990 s. Outputs of the national innovation system, measured by patents and high-tech/service exports, demonstrate the considerable progress China and India have made in innovation capacity. The enhanced innovation capacity of China and India is primarily due to their heavy investment in the inputs of innovation system, i.e., R&D expenditure and R&D personnel, in recent decades. This paper emphasizes the role that the governments have played in promoting innovation capacity and their contribution to economic development. Both governments have transformed their national innovation systems through linking the science sector with the business sector, providing incentives for innovation activities, and balancing import of technology and indigenous R&D effort. Using case studies of domestic biotech firms in China and India, this paper also offers micro-level insights on innovation capacity and economic development: (1) innovation capacity has become essential for domestic firms' market success and (2) global institutional factors and national government policies on innovation have considerable influence on the choice of innovation at the firm level, i.e., to conduct indigenous R&D or to import foreign technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent growth pattern of India is set in the context of the parallel experience of China, the experience of poverty reduction is reviewed, and a number of papers illuminating India's development are introduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the causality between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth is helpful for policymakers to formulate energy, environmental and economic policies. For the first time, based on nonlinear dynamics, this paper employs multispatial convergent cross mapping (CCM) to revisit the energy-carbon-economy causation for China, India and the G7 countries using both aggregate data and per capita data. The findings indicate that there are significant differences between developing countries and developed countries. A bidirectional nexus between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth is found in China and India, but various causal relationships are identified in the G7 countries, including bidirectional, unidirectional and neutral nexus. The results confirm that the decoupling phenomenon is common in most G7 countries. By leveraging a variety of samples and a new approach, this study provides new evidence for policy authorities to formulate country-specific policies to obtain better environmental quality while achieving sustainable economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Modern growth theory suggests that more than three-quarters of growth since 1950 reflects rising educational attainment and research intensity. As these transition dynamics fade, US economic growth is likely to slow at some point. However, the rise of China, India, and other emerging economies may allow another few decades of rapid growth in world researchers. Finally, and more speculatively, the shape of the idea production function introduces a fundamental uncertainty into the future of growth. For example, the possibility that artificial intelligence will allow machines to replace workers to some extent could lead to higher growth in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a comparative economic history of China and India and their response to economic challenge. Together, the population of the two countries comprises one-third of the world population. Today the two countries are economically in an underdeveloped stage, with low per capita income but with several impressive scientific and technological achievements. Many of the facts and issues about these two countries are gigantic, that is, population, size, history, and even the problems and complexities. But China and India did not respond to the forces of the industrial revolution that in Europe transformed nations from poor peasant societies to modern developed ones. During the course of a century and a half they failed to exploit the epochal innovations of modern economic growth. These two then-advanced nations failed to meet the challenge of modern economic growth. At the same time, both Governments did not have a wide consensus supporting them, and hence, even in the raising of resources to meet administrative expenses, coercion had to be exercised. By 1950, these factors led to a major transfer of power in the two countries. For different reasons, but with the same result, the contact of China and India with the West remains a tragic case of missed opportunity.

The article discusses problems of economic growth in the poorer nations that became a major foreign policy concern of the wealthy and powerful nations of the world. The relative progress in the development of the two countries, India and China, is of great significance. There were strong parallels in their preplan structure and strong contrasts between China's totalitarian and India's democratic programs. Their performance relative to one another may influence the programs adopted by other, now less advanced, countries. It will certainly bear upon the United States and Soviet foreign policies. Furthermore, the record of the course of development in these two lands provides a unique opportunity for examining the process of development as such. Structural unemployment, underutilized resources, overurbanization, nonmonetized savings and investment flows-these are illustrative of the types of problems that must be understood and treated if there are to be steady output gains in most of today's underdeveloped areas.